May 2013
... worth 5 WAR already?! ...
Posted by jemanji on 05/31/13
Posted to blog
5 Comments
.
... according to John Dewan at Bill James Online, that is. (Actually his stats have Iwakuma as "most effective" MLB pitcher -- so far in 2013. John has a public article up on May 30th, in front of the paywall. He says,
..........
...In The Fielding Bible—Volume III, we published our current method for Total Runs, which estimates the total value each player has contributed to his team taking into account offense, defense and pitching. Here are the current leaders in 2013:
Player
Runs Created
BR Runs
Pitching Runs Created
Runs Saved
Pos Adj
Total Runs
Joey Votto
49
2
0
6
4
61
Manny... Read More
Knee vexes Pax again ... the debut of the "Choi Joy" graphic! ... Victor stays on vector ... etc.
Posted by Spectator on 05/31/13
Posted to blog
As first noted by "Lonnie of MC" (the majordomo of MarinersCentral.com), James Paxton (Talk40 #3) was scratched from his scheduled Tacoma start due to what was later reported to be a "minor knee problem."
If you've been following at home, Paxton tends to have much worse command when the knee is an issue, and Gordon and others have made a strong case that he needs a mechanical "fix" that would both avoid the injury issues and potentially even out some of the inconsistency.
Burrow a bit into the Shout Box for more of the Lonnie-Gordon dialogue.
AAA -- Colorado Springs 10, Tacoma 8 -- Box... Read More
A: Ask Han Solo
Posted by Spectator on 05/30/13
Posted to blog
13 Comments
In the course of recent analysis of Dario Pizzano (26intheMix) , I mentioned that one of the negatives about Pizzano is that he is 22 and still in the Low-A Midwest League.
But I realized that was more of a belief than something I had actually verified, so it was obviously time to dip into the Spectometer data base.
"Spectometer," by the way, is just the cheesy term I use for my home-grown stats. I do, however, have a database of 120 hitters whom I define as having "Made It Big" as MLB hitters (OPS+ 110 and above) with all of their minor-league stats. I also have all Mariners prospects... Read More
Coming at the issue from the other direction, and coming up snake eyes
Posted by Spectator on 05/30/13
Posted to blog
In Part One of our study of hitters who played their entire age-22 season at Low-A or below, we looked at our database of 120 guys who Made It Big (OPS+ in the majors of 110 or higher). We found six who "made it": three were power hitters working on high strikeout rates, and only two of them were "pure" examples of hitters like Dario Pizzano (26intheMix) who demonstrate strong Plate Skills but need to discover their inner Kevin Youkilis. Youkilis being one of the two, and Josh Willingham the other.
At the end of the day, however, 114 of the 120 did not spend their entire age-22 season at... Read More
Social Media, dept.
Posted by jemanji on 05/30/13
Posted to blog
3 Comments
=== Style and Substance ===
You'll notice today that the front-page "article tiles" are tagged. For example, the "Nothing to See Here" article has a "Postgame" tag. Mouseclicking for Dummies, Dept:
If you click the tile, you bring up the article.
If you click the tag itself, you bring up the "Postgame Blog."
Give 'er a li'l dance, pard. Clicking the Postgame Blog tag brings up each related article, in a "blog" unto its own. Later, the style will be enhanced. A tag-click will bring up a spiffy page unto itself, maybe color-themed and whatnot, but for now the index will do us just fine... Read More
Audience Poll Time
Posted by jemanji on 05/30/13
Posted to blog
6 Comments
.
Here is the video.
Lots of GREAT comments in the shout box, which we won't cut-and-paste. Two things that surprised Dr. D:
.
One-Hand Finish
In his first game, I thought the followthrough indicated a semi-pepper swing, as it does for 95% of batters who take such a swing, top hand off at the 1B foul line. I figured that Franklin was getting his bearings, sensibly enough, as Ichiro did when joining the league.
Um, NO.
Michael Saunders takes the top hand off, and not because he's decelerating. George Brett did, obviously, as First Disciple of the Charley Lau school. Frank Thomas did.... Read More
Does the average player surf the internet?
Posted by jemanji on 05/30/13
Posted to blog
32 Comments
.
Q. Today, Eric Wedge clarified. He says he doesn't want players going up there Hoping For Ball One. Why couldn't he have just said that in the first place?
A. Re-phrase here: Why couldn't we have HEARD him say that in the first place?
I've always heard it. ;- )
..............
I think that when you're angry with somebody, you're usually not working very hard to understand what they're saying. If they make it crystal clear, good on them, but give us half a chance to impute a darker interpretation and we will.
Wedge has always talked about the same thing: Don't go up there hoping for... Read More
First day at our new location and ... it's the end of civilization as we know it?... or not ... etc.
Posted by Spectator on 05/30/13
Posted to blog
1 Comments
Here we are at SeattleSportsInsider.com. Everybody good? Good. Tray tables in upright and locked position ... and ...
Oh ... my ... gosh ...!!
AAA -- Tacoma 25, Colorado Springs 6 -- Box
Pick your jaw up off the floor if you haven't seen that one yet, and let's cue John Denver:
The rebirth of Dustin Ackley? Maybe baseball is fun again? Maybe he likes the mountain air? Well, getting a home run and reaching base seven times in eight trips can't hurt: 5-for-6, HR, 2 walks.
And then there was suddenly-buzzworthy Abraham Almonte (26intheMix), who reached base seven times in... Read More
To, um, listen to each other
Posted by jemanji on 05/29/13
Posted to blog
21 Comments
.
Eric Wedge and the Blogs have talked past each other for three years. Both are right, but neither one is hearing the other. For sure the Blogs do not understand what Wedge is saying.
He is saying that you cannot go up to the plate hoping for Ball One.
He is not just "right"; he is CORRECT. It's like saying you can't tackle Marshawn Lynch while leaning backwards. The issue is not subject to debate. You'll get yourself killed trying to tackle Marshawn Lynch passively, and you'll get yourself killed by stepping into the box against an MLB(TM) pitcher hoping for a walk.
Edgar Martinez... Read More
You can't go up there hoping for Ball One, kiddies
Posted by jemanji on 05/29/13
Posted to blog
16 Comments
.
Seen at a major saber site this mornin'... [edit to add] looking at the Shout Box after writing this one, we see that other blogs had also chimed in on the question. We are actively avoiding Other Blogs, in part because our own shtick is less encumbered that way. You're not getting reaction from SSI these days, unless it's to Baker or James.
All you're getting is the truth :- )
.......
Hey Bill! The Mariners have demoted Dustin Ackley, and now Eric Wedge says that it's the fault of sabermetrics. He says the sabermetric folks ("who haven't played the game since they were 4 years old")... Read More
Nothing redeeming about this one
Posted by jemanji on 05/29/13
Posted to blog
.
Last night's game was ugly on 9,000 fronts.... here, let's split this out.
The ump was partial to the Mariners, as the data confirms, and it helped doodly squat. Maurer's command is ... not. The AB's were mailed in. Morse's out at home plate was beyond pathetic - and then he got tweaked, sliding into a hickory stump that was planted in time for his arrival. They played a weak team that came in flat. It was horrible.
...........
There was one front on which the game wasn't ugly. Jesus Sucre framed many pitches and got many calls. The early returns are mixed, which is to say at SSI,... Read More
Setting the bar
Posted by jemanji on 05/28/13
Posted to blog
2 Comments
.
What is success? What is failure?
Rick sez,
There's a lot of pressure being the savior of a franchise. Some young folks handle it better than others. And when you disappoint, then even when you bring in veterans to help out, the underlying message is not "we want to give you help" but actually "you aren't cutting it."
When Ackley came up, like Seager, anything he did positive was going to be gravy. His confidence was sky high - he was owning AAA at the time...
Griffey spoke a lot about how much Jeffrey Leonard meant to him. That always seemed strange to me - Jeffrey Leonard wasn't exactly... Read More
Has the umpiring changed?
Posted by jemanji on 05/28/13
Posted to blog
3 Comments
.
I guess Gordon has been high on Sucre's defense for a couple of years. Jack Zduriencik agrees. And it took Dr. D about four pitches to /cosign.
It's funny that Terry McD brought up the point of quietness just this last week. Sucre is as quiet as death when receiving the pitch. He holds up the target nice and high, palm "up," and he has the "clamshell" snap in which he yanks a high pitch down into the strike zone without moving his arm.
He receives the ball as pretty as a picture. He nods back at the pitcher and generally radiates the idea of, yep, we got this. He tosses the ball back... Read More
Ackley watchin' the box scores
Posted by jemanji on 05/28/13
Posted to blog
1 Comments
.
Jon W sez,
If Franklin does roughly what Ackley did in year one at the Major League level do the Mariners attempt to move Ackley off of his "tough" defensive position into something less strenuous? The Mariners don't exactly have a clear cut answer in left field right now. Also, with Guti and Saunders, you can't really count on center field either.
I know that Ackley has much more value at 2nd than he does in Left, but if he can hit .300/.380/.XXX in left (with probably average to above average defense), isn't that a net positive? Especially for this team as it is set up right now?
I guess... Read More
"Minus Later" dept.
Posted by jemanji on 05/27/13
Posted to blog
14 Comments
.
This isn't analysis, isn't written for colleague blog authors, or for submission in a future job interview. It's a baseball chat. Here's what I saw in two innings.
.
Defense
Franklin's first inning in the field, a lefty batter struck an infield-practice three-hopper right at him. Franklin's movements were as Japanese-aiki as any second baseman's I've seen lately.
He moved to the ball with both hands, including his throwing hand, right at his CG. He leaned over, forming a sort of audio scoop for the ball. As the ball got there, he used the "soft hands," by which we mean that his hands... Read More
The dice roll funny sometimes
Posted by jemanji on 05/27/13
Posted to blog
8 Comments
.
Gordon sez,
This ain't how I'd draw it up, but that's why prospecting stinks. Gold can be a long time coming. It doesn't mean you stop looking for it and blow up the mine.
Spot on. The 'failures' of Smoak, Ackley and Montero make a spectacular trifecta of embarrassment; the Mariners expected each of those three kids to become MOTO hitters.
Not "possible" MOTO's. They paid prices that you don't pay unless you're pencilling them into your 3, 4, and 5 hitting slots. Michael Pineda, after 2011, was one of the 10-12 best starting pitchers in the American League, and of course he wasn't... Read More
Have a great weekend
Posted by jemanji on 05/27/13
Posted to blog
1 Comments
.
For those readers interested in our cultural commentary, here is a Memorial Day article for the Ft. Lewis Ranger.
Fascinating goings-on at Royal Brougham, including a Justin Smoak announcement as we type this, and some kinda .450 OBP busher parachutes into Safeco. Oh, NOW the announcers go "Hey, I like this move!" Grrrr....
As the game begins Monday, Sims leads off with a "guess" that Aaron Harang is pitching for his spot. He coughs up a ringing double to start the game, but scrambles out of the first inning. Here's hoping for a 12-9 Mariner victory... in view of the shambles that is... Read More
Are the kids slow and being lapped by others, or are we impatient?
Posted by Gordon Gross on 05/26/13
Posted to blog
19 Comments
Okay, mal brought this up again, so let's get to it:
How long should players be allowed to struggle? 3 months? 3 years? When do you cut bait and move on, and when do you wait around for greatness?
After all, greatness should show itself in good order, so are you waiting around for goodness, or okay-ness? Who wants to wait 3 years for okay-ness?
blissedj follows up on the thought by saying, "a couple years ago we had 3 top 20 in all of baseball prospects! That is good drafting and trading, yet at this point nothing to show for it. 0-3. It still counts for me that Smoak and Montero... Read More
Jack's Drafts with the Ms
Posted by Gordon Gross on 05/25/13
Posted to blog
8 Comments
There's been a lot of talk this week about Jack's failures in the offseason. I agree with some and disagree with others, but as the Ms wallow in their annual May losing streak and throw away a lot of the goodwill we have for em, I figured we should talk about where we've been. And since the draft is Jack's wheelhouse and we have another one coming in a coupla weeks, we might as well go there.
First, let's talk about what came out of the Bavasi drafts (2004-2008). Short answer: Michael Saunders.
Longer answer: I'm serious, Saunders is it for hitters. We also got a coupla pitchers.
... Read More
Llloooooonnnggggg Season
Posted by jemanji on 05/22/13
Posted to blog
36 Comments
.
The least trite thing you could do, at this particular moment, is to ask what is good. We're sure that other blogs are giving you everything else. Okay, then... reasons to buy a ticket Friday, to take a sip of lemon water as it were, and to take a bite of spaghetti tasting it freshly?
.........
The 2012 Oakland A's, who won the division ahead of Texas and Oakland, had a 9-game losing streak in late May. It took them to 22-30 ... and they didn't start winning immediately after that, either. They parlayed their record into a 26-35 on June 10, and they were still well under .500 as the All... Read More
Is "wait and see" a valid process step, or merely cowardice?
Posted by Gordon Gross on 05/21/13
Posted to blog
15 Comments
So - irrespective of whether Z was right about Ibanez and Bay having something left in the tank, or trading for Morse and Morales to help the offense, or calling up Medina and other to patch holes in the boat that were not of his making... is he too slow in moving off of his original decisions (Ryan, Ackley, Smoak, Montero) when those players are struggling or, let's be honest, just flat out failing when it comes to hitting the ball and providing offense we desperately need? If this team would be a contender without black holes in it, and knowing that trade pieces or draftees make up most... Read More
let's discuss results vs. process, and expected behavior
Posted by Gordon Gross on 05/21/13
Posted to blog
Terry posted a lot of provocative items in the shout queue today on the failures of management in terms of player development and other areas of concern. To sum up what he said:
Ackley is failing miserably, but was left to work out his swing changes on his own. Nick Franklin embarks on an eating program of his own volition and is immediately castigated when ST starts. Jesus Montero had several issues to address and the Ms left it up to him to do so, even though there are rumors of accountability and work ethic. At least five games have been lost due to some form of umpire bias or... Read More
Fall of the Roman Umpire, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 05/21/13
Posted to blog
26 Comments
.
Terry McDermott sez,
....
This isn't exactly pertinent to yesterday and don't know if it's behind paywall, but an interesting ump's point of view on the framing debate. In a BP Q&A, retired longtime ump Jim McKean is very defensive about the idea of framing - doesn't want anyone to think the umps are gullible - but says that catchers who catch the ball properly get more calls. Not because they like those catchers, but because they make the ump's job easier.
In other words, they like guys who are physically quiet. Montero notably is not so is gonna have problems long term unless and... Read More
Game of Inches, dept.
Posted by jemanji on 05/20/13
Posted to blog
9 Comments
.
Dave Neihaus said something, about 1979 or so, back when Dr. D wore a younger man's clothes. It stuck with him ever since. The M's somehow won the first three games of a series, way into the dog days of summer, and then botched Game 4. "You figured the M's were in for it today," Dave said. "You just don't see too many four-game sweeps in baseball. Too many things can happen."
It's blinkin' rare to go 4-0 in May, even if you've got the best team in baseball against the worst. It is even rarer for two teams to match each other perfectly, base-for-base, and then to align those four games... Read More
Calling Mr. WBC
Posted by jemanji on 05/19/13
Posted to blog
.
Fizzler: 2nd Place Standing
G-Money sez in the shout box,
Them's the breaks of a .500ish team. You win half and feel good, and you lose half and get grumpy. Gotta get one tomorrow.
Just so. There isn't any amount of prose text that would change a baseball fan's feeling after dumping the first three games of a series in baseball's most dreary city. You know what would change the feeling? Watching a victory or two. Earl's Fourth Law: Momentum is as good as that day's starting pitcher. Iwakuma locks down the Indians, all is forgotten.
There's a city the M's stayed in for a little while... Read More
Stopping thru Dave Magadan City?
Posted by jemanji on 05/19/13
Posted to blog
8 Comments
.
Sizzler: Justin Smoak
Drago axs, What if Smoak can run a .400 OBP with a .400 SLG? Would that be good?
Spectator comps him, right now, to Dave Magadan, and Bat chimes in with Sean Casey. Would you want either player, in view of the fact that we've got Romero, Liddi, Montero 1B probably, and other talented young players in the wings? And you have to spend your FA money somewhere...
Supposing that Smoak were Magadan or Casey. First question, is that what he's going to be. Second, what's that worth to you.
............
If you just joined us:
Smoak's OBP is up to .374 (!!) but his SLG... Read More
Bumper Stickers
Posted by jemanji on 05/16/13
Posted to blog
27 Comments
.
We seldom read other sites before writing our own postgame, but tonight we wandered over and lazily checked one of them. Big Mistake. That's what the Govuhnatuh would say.
Going from the sheer sports pleasure of watching the game on TV, to the recap, induced some major vertigo ... hey, we warned yer, Doc! Keep yer eyes on yer own paper already.
Too late:
.
Once Upon A Time ...
We had a bad feeling going into the game, because Harang is a slop sandwich and on Friday we'd already fouled up our only longshot to win the series.
Then we heard we had no starting pitcher - and the one that... Read More
CERA: 3.15 -- after the patchwork RP game
Posted by jemanji on 05/16/13
Posted to blog
8 Comments
.
I don't know what Jesus Montero is on any other night. But tonight, he was a Major League (TM) catcher. He ran a good show back there, man, and who was pitching?! Watch a game! If it had been Jason Varitek or Mike Zunino in his uniform, you wouldn't have been able to make a distinction. Not with your fan's eye, you wouldn't.
People are laughing at him and they seem to have little idea why; honestly, as best as I can follow the situation, Big Blog told them to, so they do it. If Big Blog told them to stop laughing, would they?
We can make .gifs of Montero. You can also make .gifs of... Read More
'Gamers and Fighters'
Posted by jemanji on 05/15/13
Posted to blog
11 Comments
.
Rauuuuuuul, Dept.
After "HR - Ibanez 2 (6)" in the Bronx on Wednesday, he went on ESPN's Quick Pitch and praised his teammates highly. "We've got a bunch of gamers and fighters, and we're enjoying playing together," he sez.
Granted, Rauuul has always been an org guy, a leader in this respect. But his statement is also accurate. The Mariners do have gamers now. Kyle Seager is a "gamer." Obviously Rauuul is. You can name your own list, and it isn't a short one.
.............
The average fan, like you and me, probably has no way to comprehend what it's like going from AAA to ... well,... Read More
"I think the best place, and the only place, for a player to learn to play in the major leagues, is in the major leagues" - Bill James, Red Sox VP
Posted by jemanji on 05/14/13
Posted to blog
24 Comments
.
People talk as if it would be unspeakably naive to call up Nick Franklin as a bench player. No. There are any number of precedents for this. Franklin-as-utility-infielder is not a bit of SSI whimsy. It is the way that many MLB stars got their beginnings.
Recent Zduriencik quotes implied that Nick Franklin looks ready, and those promotions -- Franklin, Zunino, Hultzen were the guys he named on Drayer's blog -- depend on that moment at which the major leaguers open the door. Hopefully Ryan and/or Andino will do something to justify a Franklin promotion.
Nowadays, people feel like if you... Read More
Good game! Good game!
Posted by jemanji on 05/14/13
Posted to blog
2 Comments
.
Dr. D Mailin' It In Tonight, But the Mariners Ain't
Just so you have sumpin' to go with your coffee...
That colloquialism reminds me of Leo Durocher's autobiography. (We got a birdwalk in here real quick.) He loved Willie Mays. They'd go on a road trip, on a ... what's the word ... oh yeah, a bus. Willie would pull out one of those old-style coin purses and pass it around the bus, saying "Gonna be a long trip, boys! Put a little sumpin' in for the Kid!"
He'd get it back, there'd be six cents, four ounces of tobacco juice and a horrible mess. "Every little bit helps!," he'd beam.... Read More
The pattern is a naturally gifted player over-aggressively promoted
Posted by Spectator on 05/14/13
Posted to blog
10 Comments
Gotta chime in here regarding one of our original favorites, Michael Saunders.
It wasn't that long ago that everyone in the room was shouting "Wells" and I was off in my little corner saying "Saunders." Well, look who's DFA'd now, and who's on their way to the All-Star Game. So I think I have some room to speak on this one.
The whole thing with Saunders starts with his bio.
First, imagine Nick Franklin's teen life. Sunny Orlando. Ballpark and cages all day, every day, year-round. Well-manicured infields. Select teams with real coaches.
Now what was Michael Saunders doing? Lugging... Read More
Pattern recognition: [does not compute]
Posted by jemanji on 05/13/13
Posted to blog
7 Comments
.
Q. How likely is it that Michael Saunders is going to bust out? Show your work, Doc.
A. The problem is, whatever "sabermetric stats" you run on Michael Saunders, they're all going to show the same thing regarding his STRIKE ZONE CONTROL.
2011 - total humiliation (including 0.21 EYE and a shellshocking 23 OPS+)
2012 - battling the league to a defensive draw (0.33 EYE but 110 OPS+)
2013 - excellent EYE (0.67) for a power hitter -- so far (and 150 OPS+)
You can compare Saunders to a bunch of hitters like him -- these would (now!) include Justin Upton, Andre Ethier, Adam LaRoche, and even... Read More
Being There Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 05/12/13
Posted to blog
2 Comments
.
Once time they told me too tawk and some very nice gyes in long white coats rote really fast while I was tawking. They had big cameras n stuff n a lil monkee sat with me n tried to do everything Dr. D could. Some things he [th monkee] couldn. But that lil monkee sure did good putting blox in holes.
Last time Dr D was a week without bed he tawked about Fred Flintstone. Some gyes laffed but most just said Huh. That happens to Fred Flintstone too when he pitches.
O yeah He winned at his favorite park again and they said on TV all excited that's NINE!!! but Fred just said Huh... Read More
Umpires have no preferences whatsoever
Posted by jemanji on 05/11/13
Posted to blog
5 Comments
.
Shoppach, 5th Inning
The M's were down 3-0 and being no-hit. Parker was in a rocking chair. A turtle on first base to lead off the inning, but two meek outs followed.
2-2 count and Shoppach had fouled away three pitches. Fastball low-away and Shoppach hit it out, well into the RF seats. The M's buffet of off-field home runs continues, and they're down only 3-2.
The Athletics had six (6) base hits before the Mariners had one. Even after the homer, they have still outhit the M's, 6-1.
Time to roll over? Nope, the Mariners dug in grimly and battled the A's pitchers for a long series of... Read More
Maurer flashes the TOR talent
Posted by jemanji on 05/11/13
Posted to blog
3 Comments
Brandon Maurer, 1st-5th Innings
When executing his game in the 1st, Maurer was too much for the A's, both righty and lefty. He had a rich air/fuel mixture against lefties:
35 fastballs
9 sliders
11 change curves
9 changeups
All pitches were effective. I'm gradually pulling off of my 2-pitch recommendation for the lad. He showed coherency tonight with four.
Patience, Doc, Patience! :- )
When Maurer was locating that nasty 92-95 fastball, forcing batters to defend that first .... he really could throw any offspeed pitch he wanted.
Several times he burned LHB's with 93 MPH fastballs... Read More
A's 3 ...
Posted by jemanji on 05/10/13
Posted to blog
6 Comments
.
We've been complaining that Iwakuma-san was due to fall out of dreamland and tumble back to earth. You bet, he's got 5-6K stuff, and excellent command, but ... 8K+ per game? Nada.
But he's got a dangerous split, you say.
Well ... every MLB starter, who fans 5 or 6 men per game, has dangerous stuff. Iwakuma's arsenal seems awfully pedestrian for him to be striking out 8 per game after Friday, he's got 53 whuffs in 53.0 innings.
His stuff isn't remarkably different from Ricky Nolasco's ... 90 fastball, solid slider, good split.
.
Samurai Moment
You've seen the old Japanese language... Read More
At his mercy ... and none to be had
Posted by jemanji on 05/10/13
Posted to blog
.
First Inning, Cespedes
Okay, first four pitches:
Offspeed slider paints the black, freezes an aggressive Cespedes
Fastball just off the plate, batter holds up, 1-1
Fastball doubles up, jusssst off the plate, takes it, 2-1
82 slider breaks off the zone, Cespedes' achilles heel, garbage swing
After this pitch, Cespedes was humiliated and scared. The location of the slider was textbook. Looked like a fastball, broke RIGHT into the area that Cespedes can't handle.
More to the point: Imagine you're Cespedes. You've seen 4 pitches, none of them the signature Shuuto. .. you've gotten two... Read More
... M's 6
Posted by jemanji on 05/10/13
Posted to blog
6 Comments
.
Not that we're feeling particularly inspired, but the postgame is supposed to have a bottom of the inning also ;- )
.
Michael Saunders, Sizzler
Was hitting .267/.389/.600 in the last ten days, going into Friday's oh-fer.
Remember the WBC, where his teammates were saying like he was head-and-shoulders above any other major league player? He's got 1.2 WAR in 17 games. That's, like 11 WAR per year.
I know, he might only get like eight.
... his EYE is like .65 this year, wayyyyy into the territory necessary for him to become a star. He's played like one, SO far - the M's winning and... Read More
Brains, yes. Magic Sparkle Dust, no.
Posted by jemanji on 05/09/13
Posted to blog
16 Comments
.
Gordon's article -- the previous one on the front page here -- convincingly demonstrates that the player development under Bavasi grades at a good, solid, echo'ing F.
I'd say that's the first time I've seen a writeup that even-handedly assessed Bill Bavasi's years, and it's a damning assessment, at least from the player development end.
Gordon's right: NOW is the correct time to ask, "How good or bad was Bill Bavasi?" This post isn't answering the question. It is there to provide a 10-meter jumping off point so that you can tell me how good or bad he was, as it pertained to 25-man... Read More
Neolithic Bavasi Era "successes" vs. Modern Times
Posted by Gordon Gross on 05/09/13
Posted to blog
7 Comments
Q from mojician: “Who was Bavasi's best draft pick/ international signing of all time, as between Saunders, Choo and Fister?”
First of all, Choo was not signed by Bavasi - he was an IFA from 2000. Neither was As-Cab (2002). The previous administration gave him that 40 WAR to flush (along with Adam Jones and others). 5 years after his last draft should be enough time to judge the impact of his regime, right? What Bavasi did (2004-2008 drafts/trades):
LF/1B - Mike Morse (5.6 WAR in 514 games, trade throw-in not drafted)
RF - Michael Saunders (2.7 WAR in 360 games)
C- Rob Johnson (-0.5 WAR... Read More
Mike and Mike show
Posted by jemanji on 05/08/13
Posted to blog
12 Comments
.
Mike Blowers
They shoulda had the announcer on the postgame interview tonight. One of yer all-time great nights in the booth, I'm tellin' ya. Three of his best were…
Before the fourth inning. AJ Burnett came out throwing seeds for the Pirates, as advertised. He had a no-hitter through what, five? ... and back at control center they were asking, "so what can you do against Burnett?," you know, with an air of "is this game over after three innings?"
Blowers didn't hesitate.… You've got to do something to change things up (Dr. D would say, reframe the debate. If you're losing at backgammon... Read More
Toxic Precision, dept.
Posted by jemanji on 05/08/13
Posted to blog
23 Comments
.
Felix Taking It to Another Level
The F/X system had his pitching splits completely fouled up. His actual pitch selection was unusual:
38 fastballs, breaking only about 5x5 inches (typical MLB is 5x8 two-seam, or 8x5 four-seam)
20 changeups
15 cutters/sliders
12 sliders/cutters
12 curve balls
During the game, I thought he was throwing mostly sliders and cutters. Really I was seeing the 47x pitches in the bottom three bullets, which were breaking gloveside, and confusing a few of the 38 fastballs with cutters.
After the first inning, his fastball was extremely well located, but the Pirates... Read More
Where is this guy going to end up? Will 100 more feet tell you?
Posted by jemanji on 05/07/13
Posted to blog
8 Comments
I've never understood why people referred to Doug Fister's July 2010 as a "sample" of any kind. How could Fister's performances in July 2010 relate in any way to the pitcher he was going to be in 2012? ... yet Fangraphs insists on casting a player's MONTH as a type of 2% REPRESENTATIVE SAMPLE of his career.
If Nick Franklin comes up and takes 100 AB's for the Mariners, that's not going to be a "sample" of ANYTHING, except a very small sample of Franklin's skill level AT THE MOMENT.
It really is like watching a motorcycle zoom around through mountain passes, and you "sample" him going... Read More
Upperdog? Underdog? Who cares...
Posted by jemanji on 05/06/13
Posted to blog
21 Comments
.
Sparkling article by Logan Davis. I hope he puts in one a week. It raised half-a-dozen separate issues, all worthy of extended debate.
His positions were (1) all eminently reasonable, and (2) almost all, I think, on the other side of the fence from where I would be. Which makes a ball game. Thanks Logan :- )
.
Q. Is it better for Nick Franklin, if the Mariners keep him in AAA?
A. Suppose I believed that. How would I document that claim?
We asked Bill James about it once ... he said, "I think the best, and the only, place, for a player to learn to play in the major leagues is in the... Read More
That's what he said, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 05/06/13
Posted to blog
10 Comments
.
Don't take this as condescending. Actually it's the opposite of that. The antonym here is ... hm. Deferential? Respectful? Friendly?
Dr. D made a penny or three, back in the day, by translating the works of Subject Matter Experts (SME's) for the benefit of executives. These guys did not differ from the SME's in their IQ's -- most of them were former SME's themselves. But they came from different fields.
SME's use a fluent language when they talk to each other. It wouldn't be smart for Jeff Sullivan to use the same words when talking to Logan Davis about baseball, as he uses when he... Read More
What is Hisashi Iwakuma if the ump takes the black away?
Posted by jemanji on 05/04/13
Posted to blog
5 Comments
.
Gotta Earn It First, Kid
The first pitch of the game, Iwakuma opened the festivities with a high strike on the black to Brett Lawrie. Perfect! Forget the part about "hitting the glove" two inches outside. This was a strike per an automated, rulebook interpretation.
Ed Hickox, behind the plate, stared blankly out at Iwakuma.
Iwakuma drew a heavy breath, wound, and fired again. Celery-crisp fastball, right on the black: a machine would have whistled it a second strike on its (too-strict) rulebook interpretation.
Ed Hickox, behind the plate, glared out at Iwakuma. (I went and checked... Read More
Age-arc, dept.
Posted by jemanji on 05/03/13
Posted to blog
17 Comments
.
There were two articles on the 'net lately, both from top-notch sources. They analyzed Jesus Montero, one concluding that Montero probably is a longshot from this point, and the other deciding that, well, there's still some hope left for him.
SSI wants to follow on in "roundtable" spirit. A few things we're not going to get into:
Who decided that Jesus Montero isn't a legit catcher, and what the rationale was/is
Why the presence of Mike Zunino implies something negative about Montero as a catcher
Whether a Baseball America ranking is reassuring
Whether free swingers are the kind of... Read More
M's 4 .....
Posted by jemanji on 05/03/13
Posted to blog
4 Comments
.
No Place to Hide, Dept.
In the 4th inning Friday, the game was scoreless, the outcome completely up for grabs. Ex-star Ricky Romero, a left-handed pitcher, had faced the minimum through 3 innings. He got set to face the Mariners the second time through. He battled Michael Saunders to a hotly-contested leadoff walk.
Then, first pitch, he threw Kyle Seager a jam pitch, above the hands and inside, off the plate:
Seager hit a majestic, towering shot into the second deck. 2-0 Mariners. Felix Hernandez never looked back.
............
Not everybody reading this has played baseball. If you... Read More
... Jays 0
Posted by jemanji on 05/03/13
Posted to blog
7 Comments
.
In the seventh inning Friday night, Jose Bautista worked the count to three and two. Felix threw him a fastball out and over, and Bautista whacked the ball down into the left-field corner for a single.
It was the first hard-hit ball the Jays had during the game. After we were one hour and 45 minutes into it. Up to that point, the Jays had:
three swinging strikeouts
three called strikeouts
a pop-up caught in foul territory
a pop-up fall in for a single
six routine ground ball outs
three sharply struck ground ball outs
a double play
a single off Felix's glove
How many line drives do you count... Read More
Be yourself, dept. ... ummm ....
Posted by jemanji on 05/03/13
Posted to blog
3 Comments
.
Hard times arouse an instinctive desire for authenticity. - Coco Chanel
.
Authenticity, Dept.
Yes, that was Coco Chanel her ownself who stepped up onto the podium to info-tain us on the subject ... :- ) Nothing says "genuine and trustworthy" like a $200 bottle of perfume...
A few times lately, we have had "inner-circle" friends, 10-year friends, get moderated. OK, here's the deal-io, from the Big Cheese himself:
.................
Hi Jeff - I've included James on this email since he was actually the first one to alert me to Blissedj's issue and since you should probably both be in the... Read More
Or is it a Dirty Dozen?
Posted by Gordon Gross on 05/01/13
Posted to blog
44 Comments
I was gonna do a series of posts about the upper and lower minors, but Spec is killin' it on MarinersTalk w/r/t that, so I figured I'd do something a little more free-form. Just the guys who've caught my eye early. It wasn't too long ago that we were looking for the Three Little Pigs down on the farm, some bacon with ANY sort of sizzle. We have a lot more sizzle now.
Our 2008 top prospects were Clement, Aumont, Tillman, Triunfel, Balentien, Saunders, JCR, Mark Lowe, RRS and Tui.
5 years later and Clement is worthless, Aumont is still walking the universe, Tillman has a losing record... Read More
Harang uses 2 pitches - fastball and slider - to lock down lefty O's
Posted by jemanji on 05/01/13
Posted to blog
.
How Conveeeennnn-ient, Dept.
RockiesJeff was talking about our sad timing. :- ) This one makes up for two or three of 'em earlier in the year. Aaron Harang's pitch mix on Wednesday, per BrooksBaseball.net:
66 fastballs
30 sliders
3 changeups
1 curveball
He didn't need a 95 MPH fastball. He didn't need a Ryan Dempster slider. He didn't need hair-fine command - check his strike zone plot:
.
What it does take, is to make them get their bats started. And then to use the slider with changeup action.
Gentlemen, it doesn't take a miracle to get lefties out with fastballs and sliders. It... Read More
Furbush the forgotten man
Posted by jemanji on 05/01/13
Posted to blog
.
I Am Amused By the Simplicity of This Game, dept.
Charlie Furbush came in to face the 210 OPS+ Chris Davis. (That's not a figure of speech.)
Four consecutive ... sliders. Strikeout.
Furbush is a lot more than just a Left handed One Out GuY, but you forget that you COULD use him as that. He honestly can just come in there and rip off a lot of sliders for strikes, and you'd be in great shape.
We all expected big things ... we all thought big things were quite possible with this kid. Where's he been? Well, he hasn't been pitching. He's got only 8 innings in, and a hilarious 16K, 8BB... Read More
M's lineup lookin Dan-G-Russ (for once)
Posted by jemanji on 05/01/13
Posted to blog
6 Comments
.
Not gonna lie - I hadn't seen Wei-Yin Chen yet. Wow! First two hitters and he looked like CJ Wilson out there. Look him up and, sho' nuff, he had 7+ strikeouts and 2+ walks in 190 innings last year. That'll teach you to skip out on your rotisserie vegetables for three years.
But, against an aggressive lefty with a plus fastball and nasty offspeed stuff, the Mariners finally -- at game 30 -- looked like the ballclub we were hoping for in spring training. Eight different hitters who could get you a tough RBI. (Well, jury's out on Smoak and Montero.)
.
HARD RBI NUMBER ONE
Chen blew away... Read More
I'll take Morse. Your pick
Posted by jemanji on 05/01/13
Posted to blog
1 Comments
.
Fourth and fifth runs, Wednesday, scored on Sea_Beast's missile into the right-center seats. On the telecast, they said that the 2012 Mariners hit only 8 of 147 (?) home runs to the opposite field. This year it's already 6 of 30.
In other words, last year's ballclub had very little legitimate power. Now it has legitimate (dangerous) power. Granted, that legitimate power is largely Michael Morse. But there's the center fielder, and perhaps Montero soon, and Seager's dangerous.
............
Sea_Beast is lining RBI singles up the middle and the other way, is hitting HR's the other way... Read More
Poli Sci 251, edition
Posted by jemanji on 05/01/13
Posted to blog
20 Comments
.
Echo'ing off the Shouts, naturally :- )
Mo' Dawg sez,
Boy, it's also too bad that Thames has never proven he can hit AAA pitching. He's got 595 AAA PA's. In his '11. '12, '13 stintsa at that level he's gone, .352-.423-.610, .330-.407-.528 & .343-.443-.549! He's slugged .446 in 495 MLB vR AB's. But dan those M's, they're "Quintiple Daring" him to prove he can hit. By the way, phx, the answer to your question is somehow related to some degree of stupidity. At least in regard to this issue, anyway The Raul over Thames issue, too. Our man crush on Smoak somehow locks on 8 games and forgets... Read More
That's not his main problemo
Posted by jemanji on 05/01/13
Posted to blog
58 Comments
.
Philoso-Raptor, Dept.
I saw (another) piece today that said RHP's cannot throw sliders to LHB's, and since Maurer's changeup isn't real good right now, he should be in AAA.
My considered opinion is that this is a superficial assessment, a quick-and-easy dismissal of a sophisticated issue.
And it is based on a "can't throw sliders to LHB's" idea that is used as an absolute. The idea has weight. An absolute? Nada. If only life were so simple. Pineda, Dempster, and lots of guys are exceptions to the "absolute."
...............
Yes I have tired of the self-assured absolutes. Lurking... Read More