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I guarantee the first words out of Shields' mouth weren't, " yeah baby, now I can extend my contract." Ludicrous. Other than that, pretty good stuff. ;)
A Prospect for an Ace, I
Imagine throwing away a perfectly good minor leaguer just to get an ML star
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Q. Does SSI agree that the Royals were using 1955 evaluations methods to rationalize this trade?
A. The analysis of this trade is way off the mark.
Come on: the Kansas City Royals traded a real nice prospect for a major league #1 starter. And they traded three very replaceable prospects for Wade Davis, who is roughly compable to Hisashi Iwakuma or Charlie Furbush.
When you've hit the point that you think it's Insane, or Feebleminded, or Nineteen Fifty Five, or whatever, to deal your best prospect for a great major league pitcher, your keister is being swallowed up by your spreadsheet. When the Royals do this in reverse, everybody jumps on them for being the Yankees' and Red Sox' farm system.
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Q. But this move doesn't push the Royals over the top.
A. How do you know?
50% of the screaming that we hear is based on this false logic. "The Royals don't have the right to try to win. If it had been the Tigers who made the trade, well, sure." This of course was the basis of the anti-Bedard logic.
When you've got to resort to this argument to slag the trade -- "well, they're not the type of team that should do this" -- know that your basic hatred for the deal has a fatal flaw in it. Because you just admitted that some teams should do this trade, and you therefore just admitted that the trade is roughly balanced. Else, you wouldn't be saying "It's wrong because Kansas City can't win anyway."
By the way, Kansas City can win anyway. The 2012 Baltimore Orioles didn't need Baseball Prospectus' pre-season signoff on their right to compete.
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Q. How good IS James Shields, anyway?
A. Last season he fanned 8.9 men per game, walked 2.2, and threw 52% groundballs. We was a more effective pitcher than Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, or R.A. Dickey.
Shields has 9.2 WAR the last two years, almost 24 WAR the last six years.
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Q. How many innings does Shields throw?
A. The lowest innings total for him, the last six years, is 203. The last two years, it's been 250 and 230.
Over the last six years, Shields has the 13th-highest WAR total in both leagues, AL and NL, just a tick behind Jered Weaver.
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Q. Six years of Myers for two years of Shields?
A. "Two years of James Shields" misses the point. Is that what the Mariners have, "two years of Felix Hernandez"?
Shields is a Royal now, like Felix is a Mariner, and the Royals can start negotiating the extension if they so desire. They get TV money too. First thing out of Shields' mouth after the trade was, yeah baby, now I can extend my contract.
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Q. OK, his peripherals are top-12 in baseball. How is Shields' stuff?
A. Right now, there are three power pitchers in the AL with these three strikeout pitches: hot fastballs, wipeout changeups and wipeout overhand curves. Those being Felix, Verlander and James Shields. And Shields is a groundball pitcher.
How many guys are there in baseball like this? Three power pitches, terrific every year, 220 IP every year, exactly 31 years old as you'd love your ace to be. If Shields pitched in Boston or New York, they'd run him on ESPN every night and he'd be an icon.
NEXT
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Comments
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From MLBTR: Shields told Jim Bowden on MLB Network Radio that he'd be open to an extension of the Royals wanted to discuss one. "No doubt about it," Shields said.
The 'yeah baby' is our tongue-in-cheek shtick of course, but the day of the trade Shields is on the radio giving the Royals an all-systems-go green light.
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Other MLBTR quotes, day of trade, here: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/reaction-to-rays-royals-trade.html. Bloggers ain't GM's, that's for sure.