Q. How in the WORLD did Zduriencik make this happen without any buyout.
A. In case you haven't caught on, kiddies, Zduriencik is one whale of a hardball GM.* He is polite about it, he's cordial and professional, but he's just a guy you don't cross. You don't take advantage of him, and you don't even ask.
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This had been our early impression of the guy, but when Mentink interviewed him about Junior in 2010, he politely goes "in the end, nice stories are nice stories, but we have to go forward..."
We've run into our share of execs ... you know what the first thing is, that would hit you about them? Is that they tend to be emotionally very cool. Well, distant. Well, cold. They'll sign a piece of paper that un-employs 100 people while chatting on the phone about concert tickets.
Most of them have nice smiles, many are charming, but 98% will fire their best friend and then go have a nice hot meal at lunch.
That's not a criticism. The guys who make deadlines happen, are the guys who don't sympathize with human beings much.
Bill Bavasi liked to be friends with the people he worked with - much more so than most upper-execs we've run across. We used to see guys like Zduriencik do the interfaces between Boeing and the Feds.
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*This is our opinion about Zduriencik, whether or not our read on Johjima's particular situation is on target.
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Q. Why does paying Johjima $0 prove Zduriencik is a hardball GM?
A. It doesn't, in a vacuum.
But the fact that Johjima's power agent wouldn't be able to get a coupla bucks -- in this particular situation, with the M's desperately needing that $8M -- is astounding.
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I mean, look at it this way. Suppose Nero tells Zduriencik, "Give us $1M a year buyout or he's staying put." And suppose Capt Jack says, no, we'll keep him.
In that scenario, Zduriencik just powerflushed $7M a season on a part-time catcher he doesn't even want (the M's like Johnson and love Moore, and the Jamie Burkes of the world are not hard to come by). Successful execs are not known for spending $7,000,000 on nothing.
I wouldn't have had the guts. I'd have signalled the $1,000,000/yr buyout to save my other $7,000,000.
Somehow Zduriencik -- in part by increasing Joh's playing time late -- signalled $0. And Nero took it.
Granted, there isn't a lot of precedent for ML teams paying NPB stars to go back to Japan. :- ) But is it unLIKELY that they would do so? Note carefully that this is the first thing Capt Jack said on KJR: no buyout, baby.
That implies the implicit negotiation. Just FLABbergasting to me, this $0 development.
I don't know whether Nero and Zduriencik talked, or whether they didn't, or what. Doesn't matter. There are some execs, you just know, not to even ask the question.
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The Johjima situation notwithstanding, Mariners fans, go ahead and bask in the glow. The fact is, your GM has street cred the likes of which no non-Gillick exec has ever brought to Royal Brougham. Zduriencik is Large and In Charge.
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Q. Is it surprising to you, that Joh could get $5M in Japan?
A. Surprising to our NPB monster-analysts, so therefore surprising to me. Their midseason guesses were that Johjima would get about $2M in Japan in 2010. Based off this exact databit, my expectation was that Joh would return.
So the shocker was the $5M offer. That made it feasible for Johjima to pass up the $8M. $5M + happiness beat $8M + misery. $2M + happiness would not have.
Went home and re-evaluated, my eye. What happened was that Hanshin (?) came up with the jack. And CAPT Jack wiped his brow...
Me too,
Dr D
2009 makes Joh's '08 season look like a true BABIP outlier. His power completely returned and while the BABIP still didn't completely rebound.
My guess is that he becomes the premier NPB catcher again in '10, both offensively and defensively.
Good for the Ms, and good for Joh.
Including exact nature of the contract, backroom conversations with Joh & his agent...
But this feels to me like it has more to do with Yamauchi and the Bavasi-led M's show of respect to Joh by giving him the big contract when he wasn't exactly lighting the world on fire, than Z's clout and acumen. I guess that this happens almost regardless of who the GM is.
Looks to me like the M's still have a competetive advantage in the marketplace w/r/t Japanes talent. It may not manifest itself in players signed, or contract dollars, just in other ways like this. And this is a biggie.
was a Yamauchi call. But not sure what you're saying as to the fact that Joh went home with nada?
Am going off Zduriencik's tone of voice on the radio. "He wanted to finish his career and home and I respect that," biting off the words, he sounded to me like the guy with the lead on it...
Just a view from the bleachers of course...
It sounds to me like the contract stipulated that Joh could opt out at any time he likes, for no buyout. IIRC this was scoffed at a bit when the contract was signed, after all, Joh would never walk away from $8MM per year.
It's a very real possibility, IMO, that this was all Joh. That he didn't like being a part-time catcher for the rest of his productive years. Now there, Z (and Wak) deserve a huge amount of credit, for transforming Joh in to a part time player without it being more of an ordeal. And Joh deserves some credit as well, for how gracefully he handled himself.
It's also a possibility that Joh was encouraged by the FO to opt out. Maybe Yamauchi somehow made sure Joh knew he'd be taken care of. ::shrugs:: This is kind of like the Hargrove quitting episode (although I'm convinced I know what happened there). We may never REALLY know the exact machinations behind closed doors.
A few comments.
1) Zduriencik had no leverage, so the chance this was of his doing seems unlikely. I think this was a matter of honor and manners between Yamauchi and Johjima, consistent with GLMuskie above.
2) In a position like GM or manager, you do what it takes to win (including firing your friend like Wakamatsu just did with the 3rd base coach) or your replacement will do it for you. It's not for most of us, but most of us aren't cut out for responsibility of thousands of jobs, thousands of morgages, thousands of rent checks, and hundreds of private school tuitions.
I agree. I think its most likely that this was Joh's decision.
Put yourself in Johjima's shoes.
You are sick and tired of the status quo, have wished you were home for oh, what... two years now?
You call Nero and tell him you want to go home. What's the next step? it's, How much money can I get in Japan and what will the Mariners add to that.
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Turns out: the M's know you want to go home. They shrug their shoulders: it's your call. Hey, it turns out somebody will ante up, 5 mill. M's won't add any, still? Hm. OK. Well.... I'm going anyway.
Nero gets in the papers and says, Hey, don't blame this financial deal on me. He just wanted to go home. I'll just have to get him the best contract I can from here.
Read between the lines. Why do you think an agent says?, "Hey, this was my client's maneuver. Not mine." He's publicly washing his hands of a poor outcome from an agent's standpoint. The other agents are raising their eyebrows and Nero's coding out "He was determined; nothing I could do."
*What has anybody said that's inconsistent with* the M's stiffing Joh on the buyout, Nero disliking the situation, and Johjima deciding to go home anyway, as soon as a decent offer turned up?
And the M's were indifferent to Johjima staying or going, at $8M ... I'd say that would be even a poorer decision than to re-up Wilson at $8M per.
If Nero came to me and said, "you can at least give him $500,000 or something," I'd have been scared spitless to bluff them on it.
And why wouldn't Nero ask for buyout money?
++ I think this was a matter of honor and manners between Yamauchi and Johjima, consistent with GLMuskie above. ++
This wouldn't include a buyout? I'd say that manners in Japan are more typically a two-way street :- ) ... as opposed to one guy giving up $1-4M to an employer he'll never see again, and receiving not even a public acknowledgement (from the boss) for it...
Conversations between Nero and Zduriencik over a 3-day period.
Nero calls Zduriencik on Friday: "hey, Kenji might be interested in going back to Japan.... "
Several calls go back-and-forth between Capt Jack and Nero. In the end, Johjima returns to Japan with nothing and everybody shrugs, "Well, Kenji was free to go back if he wanted or stay if he wanted."
So you amigos suppose that Nero and Zduriencik discussed manners back-and-forth. :- )
Zduriencik's statements "of course" we could use Kenji the next two years. Johnson's had surgery, Moore's unknown, yada yada yada.
That is exactly what I tell Nero, if I'm trying to get him to buy into a $0 payout.
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... it's possible, I suppose, that Zduriencik wanted Johjima at $8M. If that were the case, it would go in the debit column for him as a roster evaluator, as far as I'm concerned.
Johjima-san is a top-notch catcher, but in Seattle, the whole situation is a liability. I wouldn't pay $427,000 for the situation, much less $8M.
Its possible, but I just don't think it happened like that.
This is the same guy who cancelled his trip to NY because he decided Seattle was it. Nero wanted Joh to go to NY even just for leverage, but Kenji wasn't having any of it. No $ skimming. no negotition ploys. Joh wanted to play in Seattle.
I don't see Kenji as someone who is about getting money for something he isn't earning.
... but giving the M's a $2m buyout of a $16m contract wouldn't be about taking a freebie. It's about selling your stock option at a super-generous price.
Hey, even cutting a deal where Hanshin did $5M and the M's $3M would have been doing Seattle a favor. The contract was in place and it was Kenji's money. :- )
Been awhile since I was out on my own. Three years ago it used to be the norm. Now it's once in thirty posts. As Ichiro would say, look around and see who has changed...
;- )
Based on everything I know about Japanese culture, amplified by what I've seen in regards to Johjima, I have to side 100% with Taro on this one. I don't think anything remotely like Doc's "don't blink" scenario happened. Why?
Japan is *NOT* all about greed and money. It is about FACE. The weight of doing things "the right way", (based on Japanese custom and decorum) is vastly more important than in America, where "do you own thing" is not simply allowed, but is nearly a cultural imperative.
From what I've read, the extension Joh signed had a $0 opt-out clause. He can walk anytime to return to Japan. He *SIGNED* that contract. So, at the time he agreed to accept the $24 million for the next three years, he ALSO agreed that if he wanted to head home, he could, WITHOUT STRINGS.
It is a purely American contrivance to approach (and view) every situation as one where you're calculating the leverage and odds of making an extra buck FOR DOING NO WORK. Oh, yes, I'm certain that any agent is going to look at the situation that way. But, I don't for a minute think that the majority of Japanese players would -- and this one in particular, absolutely not.
The same thing that made Joh's stay in America a bit bumpy is what made his return home so smooth. He has a completely different world view than your average American. Family, honor, integrity ... these are not just words to him ... they are a CODE. If he signed a contract that says he can walk away without any extra money, then it would be ... unseemly and a great disrespect to the organization to decide to leave and THEN ask for some extra traveling cash. If he wanted it to be a buyout, then it should have been a buyout WHEN HE SIGNED THE CONTRACT.
I think it is a sad comment on America, (and I really don't mean to bash the Doc here), that we have come to expect and accept that it is perfectly fine and standard operating procedure for athletes to sign contracts and then whine and moan and do everything possible to break them. I remember some people painting Michael Jordan as an idiot for not DEMANDING the Bulls renogiate his contract when salaries escalated and his contract was a relative joke. And his response was, "I signed the contract, so I'm going to honor it."
But, ultimately, the best argument for Doc's scenario never happening is Doc's own position that HE would never have done it. In point of fact, if any GM on the planet got offered a $2 million for $16 million walk-away and turned it down, they would be excoriated for the idiocy of the decision. In point of fact, while Doc suggests in the scenario that this would make Z "brave" (or something), IMO, it would make him a complete and total moron *AND* would make him the worst kind of penny pinching Scrooge of a GM, without a single shred of human decency in regards to how he treated a player who did nothing buy give his best to the team during his stay.
I certainly HOPE that Doc's scenario didn't happen. If it did, the club has a moron for a GM who is so out of touch with monetary reason that there is no way the club won't be doomed to suffer an even worse fate than it did under Bavasi. I think not.
To Kenji, for him to go home? Versus playing part time on a team that didn't want him for the future? Around three million a year for two years, it seems.
But really, I don't think that's the primary factor. The M's and Joh had a contract. It stipulated a player opt-out option with no buyout. Why in the world would the M's offer money to Joh *just because*? When has any team ever done that? In this case, it's not about showing Joh respect by paying him extra money, it's about honoring the terms of the agreement.
Sure, Nero may have tried to angle for some extra dough. I doubt it though. Read his quotes, he says Kenji did this basically on his own, even contacted the Mariners directly himself. Nero sounded a wee bit miffed about that there.
I agree with Taro and Sandy and disagree with DrD.
There was 100% indication that Joh will opt out of his contract.
1. His family stayed in Japan for the 2009 season.
2. He canceled all 2009 to 2010 offseason activities for M's includind PR photos for 2010 season (this was reprted about 1 week ago in Japanese media).
So what was the 3 day negotiation between GM and Nero?
The Japanese media reported that though Joh had his opt out clause in his contract he wanted to be sure that the M's FO does not held him back.
It was just another classy move from his side.
As the ancient wiseman Delmar once said, "I'm with you fellers".
The person with absolutely no leverage in this was Nero.
I fully expect that he, as Joh's agent, tried to get the M's to grease the wheels with some kind of buyout. Why else get himself involved for three days of "conversations" with Z? Joh probably gave him three days to try and negotiate some kind of buyout that didn't taint his honor. But in the end, he had no leverage to get anything. Joh was going home, buyout or no buyout. Z was ok with Joh coming back for $8 million. Nero was stuck in the middle, between a rock and a hard place with nothing but a brittle twig in hand.
Sandy does a great job of explaining the cultural differences here.
In truth, any kind of severance pay would have to be embarrasing for Joh as a professional (receiving money from a team he isn't playing for). I don't think for a second that he would accept any kind of offer. In this circumstance I think it would be a bit insulting to offer $ to Johjima for parting ways. It demeans what hes contributed as a Mariner up until this point (not to mention that it goes against the contract).
That restates my position in the original post.
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The fact that Taro and Dr. N are agreed as to the social dynamics here is convincing. It weighs heavily.
But IMHO, to imagine that Nero was in negotiations for 3 days, merely for the sake of talking the Mariners into accepting a $0 buyout and publishing a nice press release, is pretty naive. :- )
Appearances are appearances, but when you're at a closing table signing 120 pages of documents with millions on the line, Alan Nero isn't there to give away money he doesn't have to...
The link you posted re: the three days of negotiations, nothing's coming up...
I can easily see three days of periodic phone calls between Nero & Z...
#1, Nero to Z, Hey I just talk with Joh, I understand he called & talked with you guys about possibly opting out of his contract, etc.... OK well let me talk with Joh about this & we'll get back in touch
#2, Nero to Z, OK so we're having our lawyer review the particulars on the opt out clause. Joh's looking at a couple different options, you know $16mil is a lot to leave on the table and he's kinda reluctant to do that... uh huhn, ya, well, our attorney's looking that over now...
#3, Z to Nero, 'Wanted to touch base, looks to us like Joh's free to go, we've got the Nov. 15th deadline of course he needs to inform us by, probably best for everyone if he wants to opt out to do it sooner rather than later. Doesn't look like any buyout money coming from the M's in the transaction
#4, Nero to Z, Well some additional funds would make Joh's decision a lot easier, he'll be taking a big pay cut if he returns to Japan, that's adding a lot of payroll flexibility for you...
etc etc etc.
3 days easy. A little feeling each other out, jockeying for position, Nero & his lawyer looking for a way to improve the deal... in the end Nero has no leverage and no choice in the matter. He takes a hit, but he can recoup a good chunk of it by getting a boffo deal for Joh in Japan. THERE he has leverage.
Your last paragraph there is exactly right... Nero's not there to give away money he doesn't have to. In this case, he has to. And like I said, he can recoup a good chunk when Joh signs in Japan.