Q. Ready to pay up?
A. Cash your winning tickets at the All-Star Break or later. :- )
I mean, Kotchman hit .320/.407/.507 in July 2009... Juan Rivera hit .360/.410/.600 in July last year. You going to anoint him as being the next Joe Mauer?
Any 100 OPS+ hitter is going to have 30-day periods that are at All-Star level. Kotchman has had 14 good games. That's wonderful, but does it mean the case is sol-ved, Inspector? Course not.
Two full months of 130 OPS+ would start to be suggestive. Would that prove the point? Check Rivera's June-July 2009. Hitters get hot.
If you'd watched Rivera smoke ball after ball against the fence last summer, would you have pronounced him a MOTO?
Not trying to be stiffnecked. But it is a simple fact that 100-OPS hitters have 30- and 45-game stretches in which they hit like Mauer.
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Q. Not seeing anything you like at all?
A. Now, that's a different question... ;- ) Kotchman right now does look great. No doubts there.
Once had a pro hitter explain to me that he handled low pitches by (1) timing his turn and swing exactly the same way, and (2) dipping his back knee, lowering his weight, so that the knee-high pitch was essentially belt-high.
Never knew quite what he meant by that until watching Casey Kotchman this series. Check it out. Kotchman is going down at the knees, like a boxer dealing with low blows, and ripping low pitches with authority.
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Q. Covering his low-in Death Zone?
A. Right now he is, yes.
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Q. And with authority?
A. San-man has preached, since we first signed da bum, that Kotchman's confidence is the pivot point of his evaluation.
IFF Kotchman were to suddenly become a good hitter -- more specifically, a dynamic hitter -- then for me, the reconciliation would be that his swing has been static because of his attitude.
Not Kotchman specifically, but hitters generally, sure. They get to age 27, 28, start to anticipate, and become aggressive, suddenly developing a homer swing. If that's what Kotchman did this season, it's not like it would be anything bizarre.
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Q. Supposing that Kotchman did jell, find his happy place, and everything broke right for him. What would be the outcome?
A. He would become this hitter, IMHO. Same top hand ... same approximate physique ... same soft-spoken demeanor ... same BB's per 162 ... same age 27-28 liftoff, if he's lucky. Kotch would have even a little better AVG because fewer K's.
Ironically, he'd get the same excellent Safeco results, 'cause of the topspin.
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Q. Which would make him a star?
A. Obviously Raul Ibanez' bat, times a gold glove even at 1B, is a player you can win a championship with... no, because of. Zduriencik would have the inside track to yet another team-friendly deal, too.
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Q. Would he become as good as John Olerud?
A. Oley had 10 consecutive years averaging a 140 OPS+, was a consistent .400 OBP man, sometimes way over .400 OBP. Let's not get carried away here. :- )
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Q. Chances of hitting like Raul Ibanez, though, per SSI?
A. SSI, uniquely after this 14-game blitz of 1B-like hitting, is not optimistic. But the more we see him dip that back knee and spoon the FB's out of the can and out into the 10th row, the more we start to waver. :- )
Mighty Casey does have 50% of last year's homer total thus far. I'm lovin' it. Let's hope Kotch is this year's Russell Branyan.
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Trepidatiously,
Dr D