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Debate ongoing as to whether Jack Zduriencik is mis-managing the M's roster.
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GLS says,
I thought [the blogs' take on Zdurienck] was pretty good. He always makes good points and his arguments are based on facts, so I always take him seriously. He's said before that the Mariners have become the least analytical organization in baseball when it comes to roster construction and I think the tone you hear is his immense frustration.
The 40-man is an issue. I expect a trade soon to clear out some spots. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if they just release Gutierrez when he completes his current rehab.
- See more at: http://seattlesportsinsider.com/comment/89097#comment-89097
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Fair enough. I didn't read the post. I'll take your word for it, amigo - if it's frustration as opposed to the usual condescension, and the usual assumption that divergent opinions are based on a lack of intelligence ... well, glad to hear it.
I do appreciate your holding down the front for the other point of view. Much more interesting to play tennis with a person than against a wall :- )
A sincere question, and a rhetorical question:
1. Could you expand on what you mean by "least analytical" in their roster construction? Like, in what sense was the Nick Franklin promotion un-analytical?
2. How would a blogger be in a position to know what processes that Zduriencik uses to make roster decisions? The Raul Ibanez contract (for example) has a list of 10+ bullet points PRO and CON, each side of the ledger. How did a blogger get a look at the legal pad?
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I'm probably being a little obtuse here. My guess is that by "least analytical," the bloggers are referring to things like seeing Kyle Seager and Brad Miller as having big league "makeup" ... the "makeup" factor is un-analytical, I assume?
When Hisashi Iwakuma succeeds based on unusual pitchability and deception, I presume that is what we're talking about as un-analytical? On this point we're not trying to be snide; am I correct in assuming that if it doesn't appear on Fangraphs, it's not analytical? Is that what we're talking about?
I'm reading this point of view as saying, "as far as we can see, the Mariners make roster decisions based LESS on WAR than any of the other 29 teams do." But that could easily be mistaken. Clarify for me where I'm going wrong.
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If that were an accurate characterization, we'd still have all kinds of problems.
How do you use WAR (by which we mean, tongue-in-cheek, any Fangraphs stat) to "analyze" Nick Franklin's promotion? How does WAR help us project the disastrous ERA-xFIP stats for Maurer, Saunders, Harang, and Beavan? There are any number of "roster construction decisions" that can't be fully captured by any kind of stats. How do stats tell you whether to fish or cut bait on Justin Smoak?
As Bill James says, stats are backwards-looking by their very nature. What was the "correct" projection for Jason Bay this offseason? There wasn't one. Forward projection is not accomplished through computer analysis. The Boston Red Sox did not decide on Dustin Pedroia based on Fangraphs analysis; they did it based on their best judgment as to his future.
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The M's org obviously has issues. I'm not sure that an analytical March roster selection would have cured them. What were the blogs recommending in March - would those recommendations, in hindsight, have led to better 2013 results? Or are 2013 results irrelevant?
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By the way, does ANYbody here think that Tom Wilhelmsen's issues are based on confidence? No? Then why the hackneyed attempt to "vote of confidence" him through his control issues?