=== Manny Happy Returns dept. ===
In 2010, Red Sox have a lot less offense than they usually throw out there.
A few years back, they had Manny, Ortiz, and a huge supporting cast. Last year, they had Jason Bay, a 101-OPS David Ortiz, and Kevin Youkilis trying to pick up the slack.
Now Bay is gone also, as are the team OPS+ of their glory days. Their team OPS+ by era:
Remember that those runs are adjusted for glorious Fenway Park: last year the Sox were #2 in OBP and #2 in SLG with a 105 OPS+. :- )
Anyway, the Red Sox' impact hitters are now reduced to Kevin Youkilis, J.D. Drew and maybe Dustin Pedroia -- and those guys were nothing more than supporting cast in the Manny-Ortiz era.
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=== ZigZag to the Top dept. ==
When the Red Sox lost out on Bay, they tacked the boat and went run-prevention in Fenway. They signed Adrian Beltre and Mike Cameron, and gave 5 x $17.5M to John Lackey. Is this a little bit like the Mariners deciding to go with lousy fielders, cheap pitching, and a team full of Adam Dunns in Safeco?
Would like to ask James when it was, that the last Red Sox team won a pennant by going run prevention. Not saying it can't happen. Just curious.
Lackey's off to a terrible start in his new digs:
Of course, there's no need to weep for the Red Sox. They've got Beckett and Lester, they've got Buccholz throwing lights out today. Their franchise is worth about 80 billion dollars.
Is it just me, though, or does it start in retrospect to look like it would be awfully easy for Lackey to become a classic FA pitching bust? Lackey's not dead, but the Sox have a lot riding on him, and he looks like garbage early. Interesting plot theme to follow....
Just one more way to say, that 5/$78M for Felix is sweet like ice cream, ain't it?
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Cheers,
Dr D
Clay Buchholz looked like vintage Kerry Wood on Thursday, a 9-strikeout shutout after 6... fanning them with sliders and fastballs at will, toying with them like A-ball hitters...
But Taro's boy C.J. Wilson matched him zero-for-zero and then the Rangers struck in the 7th for a 2-0 lead...
He doesn't have any better chance to stay healthy than RRS
Maybe, but he certainly has the ability to be an above-average SP this season. I don't think hes going to be a star since his fastball hasn't translated as well to the rotation.
The bigger new is Rich Harden. The guy is looking broken. A fastball WAY down in velocity and hes showing no ability to command the ball. Thats 3 WAR that I calculated that could very well end up being -0.5 WAR. It shifts the power in the AL West a bit, but since the Rangers swapped Chris Davis for Smoak that might balance things out some.
Colby Lewis is looking like the Rangers' ace. Hes missing a ton of bats with a plus fastball and slider, inducing weak contact, and the only blemish so far has been control (which we know he has due to his track record).
SSI confidently predicts that Bedard's two-pitch arsenal will be none the worse for wear, so we could come out winners huge in that 3-SP parlay.
If Rich Harden had put up a monster year for Texas, the overall impact woulda been a lot more than one weekend series...
A broken Harden takes a lot of wind out of the Tejas sails, methinks...
Nah, they'll just promote Holland's 0.87 ERA and they have good pitching all around.
The bigger issue for them would be if Harden is truly finished and they stick with him longer than they should.
I still have the Rangers as favorites (by about 3 or 4 games), but within striking distance if Harden is really done.
Ya, Sheets is also showing a decline in velocity.
Last time defense drove Boston? Try 2007. They led the AL in DER (.704), and in ERA (4.06). Of course, that team was 3rd in runs and OPS+, too. :)
When using fangraph type analysis looking at early season pitching results. Velocity shows up next month. Look no further than the proclamations that Lincecum was broken last year after a rough outing and his fb speed dropping a couple of notches. This was after 2 starts, complete with claims that he never again would regain form. And looking at CJ Wilson and deciding that he has an injury waiting to happen.... Guys, you would be better off looking at pitch type and frequency than trying to judge 'proper' mechanics. I think that your injury predictions would have more success.
...I look at CJ Wilson as a big injury risk because HE'S BEEN INJURED BEFORE! More than once.
And because reliever to starter transitions (where the pitcher was in the bullpen for a number of years before the switch) generally go badly eventually.
True. He could easily get injured. We'll see how Colby Lewis hangs in the 2nd half as well. Matsuzaka was Matsuzaka for exactly one half of his first season and then went into stiff decline with less rest in between starts. Kuroda has been very effective when healthy but injury prone in the MLB as well.
I am highly skeptical of NPB pitching stars for a number of reasons. Not that I ever rule them out completely...especially if they have good stuff. I just am going to need to see proof that Lewis can stand the heat of Texas and the heavy workload and the longer seasons.
Had no idea.
Manny in LF, a tweener OF in center, no big-name gloves in the IF except Lowell. Not exactly a defensive lineup that would have made the Seattle blog-o-sphere swoon if Bavasi had run it out there.
Does Fenway promote high DER's generally? Maybe the foul territory outs and small OF?
Boston's recent DER history:
2005 - .682 (11th)
2006 - .679 (9th)
2007 - .704 (1st)
2008 - .698 (4th)
2009 - .678 (13th)
In 2006, Boston had a MI of Loretta and Alex Gonzalez. A-Gon had the REP as a stellar fielder. They had Crisp in CF. That's the up-the-middle defense.
In 2007, the ENTIRE MI changed: Pedroia and Lugo took over. CF - Crisp was in his 2nd season. And J.D. Drew was actually healthy in replacing Trot Nixon.
Manny - as weak a fielder - had been in Boston a Loooong time. While a defensive goof, he actually understood the Monster - so - compared to visiting LFs, he likely wasn't as horrid as generally perceived.
Honestly - Boston is one of those teams that (IMO) demonstrates the value of EFFORT and STABILITY as a variable that may often overwhelm physical gifts. I think the incoming MI was more ENGAGED in 2007. I think Crisp benefitted from an extra year in the weirdness that is Boston's OF. I think the club also benefitted in Beckett's 2nd season. I think a lack of cohesion between pitchers and fielders complicated things in 2006, and they fixed much of this in 2007.
By 2009, Nick Green got the most innings at short - but injuries seriously messed up any defensive consistency.
But, the truth is, you can follow many teams that had MASSIVE turn-arounds in DER (just like Seattle), where there were only a couple of personnel changes. Seattle reduced run allowance by 120 runs from '08 to '09? As good as Gutz is - HE didn't save all those runs by himself. But, the pitching specific stats indicate that the pitching really didn't improve significantly. (20 runs?)
HOW did a new CF / LF improve defense by 100 runs? *I* believe it is related to the concept that the club must DEMAND defensive dilligence - and if you do not provide it - the club MUST get rid of you. Note that I say "dilligence" - not "competence". The key here is that you must play at the maximum point based on YOUR ability - whatever that may be. Because, if ONE GUY is allowed to relax -- (because he's hitting .950) -- then you send the message that defense is NOT really important - and you can see an entire club relax. (This is why I've always been reluctant to the concept of adding Adam Dunn. It's the - "Everyone needs to be on time to meetings ... except Bob" principle. It doesn't foster a good working environment.)
Fenway's small foul territory means you LOSE pop ups to the stands...you don't GAIN them. The small foul territory should mean a lower DER (pop-ups are the highest percentage BIP out there...and foul flies are a big reason why Oakland is a pitcher's park - it boost DER).
The monster in left is also very hard on DER for the outfield...routine fly balls turn into doubles and singles and ther'es nothing the outfielders can do about it. The Red Sox just had a collective "up" year on defense that season. With the exception of the always laughably bad Ramirez. Lowell at third, Pedroia at second (consistently an above average fielder there), Youkilis at first (again...consistently above average with the mitt at least at first base, if not at third), J.D. Drew in right (having a very good year on defense and he's always been above average when healthy) and Coco Crisp is center (above average back then...slipping now)...that was a solid defensive team.
crossed wires there in a 16-hour workday. Inverted Oakland and Fenway.
happens to all of us, Doc. :)
I routinely call certain right handed pitchers lefties...