SABRMatt kicks the ball off with a comprehensive argument against Orlando Hudson.  I don't see it quite as cut-and-dried as that, but it's a terrif post.  Gracias bro'.

Just for the sake of kicking the ball around the field, lemme jump in ... :- )

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Q.  What about Hudson running a very high OPS in the 1H's and then tailing off?

A.  Will sign on the dotted line here, mates. There are half-a-dozen little things indicating that Hudson's body isn't allowing him to go 155 games.  Matty's judgment is spot on, in my view.

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Q.  Is the ISO a problem?

A.  Actually, it could be.   Huh.

Run as a mathematical trend from '06 to '09, it looks like it could be noise, maybe.   Just looking at the numbers, the trendline looks kind of weak.

But Hudson's SLG was down to .417 last year, and remember, that pretty 5.5 RC/27 game depends on Hudson knocking the ball into the gaps.  If you did take away his gap power, you'd be moving him back into a pack of very pedestrian hitters.

It's not clear (to me) that Hudson's bat is losing its sting.  But he's at the age where that's imminent, and when it does go, that's important.

..........

Personally wouldn't overstate the ISO.  But it underlines that once Hudson ages, well....

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Q.  Is the EYE a problemo?

A.  Not as such, but Matt argues from the FB run values... hm.  Again not conclusive, but suggestive?  You bet.

It looks to me like a guy who got tired.  Like we say, it would be neat to see Hudson in a 120-130 game set.

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Q.  Do you trust his fielding UZR's?

A.  Yeah, because that's exactly what I'd expect from a player like him anyway.

And what I'd expect from him at 32-33, in the abstract, is to be a very solid-average fielder for a couple more years.

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Q.  What about the "leadership"?

A.  In this case, Capt Jack probably isn't thinking he needs a Sweeney-, Wilson-type impact ... at this point they're layering the psyche, making sure the guys they add are Brewers... er, Mariners kinda players.

I think that's quite important.  Hudson gets a big thumb on the scale, vis-a-vis Chone Figgins, for me.

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Q.  What would you give for him?

A.  IF I thought I could get a 4th infielder to play in rotation with Hudson and Tui, and IF Jose Lopez could be traded for something bulky ... well, Hudson has been a league-average second baseman, actually a notch better.  That's worth what, $10, $12m.

I expect a 30% chance of Hudson hitting the wall next year... just in ROI terms, $10m x .7 = $7m.   Objectively speaking, Hudson's going to be marketable at that $8m figure we hear.

Whether you can buy more, for $8m, this winter, is an interesting question.

...........

You wanna be careful with Hudson's age-arc, that's for sure.  OTOH if you deal JLo for, say, Adam Dunn-plus, and then sign Hudson, well, even if Hudson hits the wall it's gravy anyway.

In principle, if Jack likes Hudson's chances to age well, I'd like to see if JLo brings back a blockbuster return.  :- )

Cheers,

Dr D