SSI Part I

SSI Part II

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 Q.  Where do you get ten wins for $25M?   Just the ol' Plan A, as y'might say.

A.  The first no-brainer is Russell Branyan.  Necessary moves first, as Kramnik would say.  Simplify.  Write your rosters up with him in them.

He was 2.8 wins in 75% of a season.  Having missed the last part of the season, let's guess he's not going to get more than about $6M. 

$6M in salary for our good bud?  That's a wild guess.   He earned $12.5M in 116 games, but he's essentially Jack Cust with a bad back.  Tough to see him getting $12M offers.

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Q.  And?

A.  The second decision revolves around Erik Bedard.  We're not inside.  We don't know whether he's got a shot to be ready in May, or July, or what?

The man is a WAR machine -- 1.9 WAR in 83 innings, pitching hurt -- and he's got to take pennies on the dollar.  You can't count on him, but he's 5.0 WAR over a full season.  

Meaning, half of a season of Bedard is a Branyan-level add for whatever make-good contract he will accept.

I don't think it's reasonable to sweep him off the table and move on.  Last April, he answered the bell after shoulder surgery as perhaps the best pitcher in the league in April and May.

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Zduriencik's already positioned himself to negotiate pretty tough:  in the Times chat, he was asked about Bedard and he (rather coldly) implied, if he's the best value on the market...

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THIS ALL ASSUMES THAT THE DOCTORS CLEAR BEDARD TO PITCH, obviously.

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Q.  And after Branyan and Bedard?   You've spent maybe $10-14 of your $25.

A.  Let's talk about my 3rd phone call -- to the Nats about Adam Dunn.

Dunn just came off a truly unacceptable season in the field for the Nationals.  Dunn gives back a big, big part of his huge offense when he puts a mitt on.

That defensive showing has got to have the Nats re-thinking.  Even your humble correspondent has grave misgivings about Dunn in the National League.

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But in the AL, and especially in Safeco, this guy adds +3 to +4 wins to my team, as opposed to playing Mike Carp at DH.   A Mariners team with Mike Carp on it wins 3, maybe 4 fewer games than a Mariners team with Dunn on it at DH.

Dunn makes only $10M in salary, so there's another $2.5 to $3.3 million per win paid.

If we get those three guys, that's nearing our 10-win add right there, and it's no doubt less than $25M in salary to add them.

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Failing an add of Adam Dunn specifically, plug in the name of any specific "name" player in his place.   Nick Johnson might be able to stay on the field at DH, with the Edgar-Junior treatment.  Bay, a trade, whoever.

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Q.  Hey!  There's ten wins.  You're done!

A.  Course not ... there are umpteen moves you can make to add wins, that don't add salary.   Trades of minor leaguers for players who help you now, who aren't making anything yet.

The above would be where it would be nice to start.  Then the local Billy Beane / Capt Jack / GM jemanji goes about finding 1 WAR here, 1 WAR there, 1 WAR anywhere.  By calling the bleacher-shot on players lesser GM's don't.

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Q.  In the original article, what was the proposed solution to this 20-WAR paradigm?

A.  It's kind of difficult to tell.  Hope that young players come through, I think.

The basic paradigm solution is, throw lots of blue-chipper spaghetti against the wall and see what sticks to the pennant race.  The Mariners will certainly be doing this in any case.

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Point is, Zduriencik has the 2009 Mariners in surprisingly good shape.  They were going in the right direction.  Give me Branyan and Dunn (Johnson) hitting 3-4, give me Bedard back, bring in a Tui/Saunders to replace Hannahan/Chavez .... and now we'll see how my young pitching does.

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Q.  Would it be okay with you if the Mariners DID add 20-ish wins this winter?

A.  And then we’ll see whether Morrow and Snell and Fister are really below-average and whether Erik Bedard is really a writeoff.  :- )  Sure, I’ll take twenty, my good man.

Cheers,

GM jemanji