Seattle Sports Insider

Draft day quick primer

Since we're talking about young blood - the next batch is about to hit the system

Posted by

6/12/17

What to look for in round 1:

- Most people have Seattle on a hitter. Some pitching under performed this year and "Seattle likes to go for right-handed hitters" which means they apparently don't realize it's Scott Hunter's first time running a draft for us. That said, here's your most-talked-about bats for us:

1) Jake Burger - a RH 3B built like Youkilis. Expect the same 3B/1B crossover - which makes him a lot like DJ Peterson. Hopefully he hits better, faster. He's built like a fireplug but he's several inches taller than Seager. He's got enough pop for a corner and can hang at 3rd for a while, but if you just think Downside = DJ, Upside = Youk you'll be okay. I wouldn't be disappointed to add him.

2) Pavin Smith - a leaner LH UVA first baseman, built more like Mark Grace. The guy just doesn't strike out (just 12 walks all year against 38 walks) but doesn't have the power that Burger has shown with a KBIZLT approach that uppercuts with a natural flourish. He's more likely to run a Brandon Belt line with home runs in the teens and more of a setup man than an RBI masher, but gets some Olerud comps. Everything about the way he plays is like watching the fly-fishing scene in A River Runs Through It. It's just so dang RELAXED... so he's interesting too.

3) Keston Hiura, a college RH 2B who blew out his UCL and needs Tommy John surgery. He played DH all year because he can't throw right now, and still hit .440 / .570 / .690. He's a doubles machine and would be ready around the time Robbie might be moving to first base. Hiura also drew more walks than Burger or Smith. He was a good-but-not-great 2B though, and a move to the OF might be hampered by that arm as well. If Seattle is willing to wait (since he'll likely need that surgery right after the season) then he's got tons of potential.

My order of preference on the 3 is actually Smith / Hiura / Burger, but I expect Burger to be the most likely pick to be there and be chosen so he's #1 here. They're all pretty good picks for where we're at, so I don't have a lot of hate to spew on the hitter end. I don't think any of them are as good as last year's Kyle Lewis, but they could still be impactful hitters. If "all" we want is another Kyle Seager then maybe these guys can provide that. There are other bats that could be considered (Evan White is the slightly inferior version of Pavin Smith, for instance), but I'll run em down if we actually pick a different one because...

- I'd rather go with a pitcher, but it's a weird class. Lot of talent, lack of greatness perhaps. Here are a lot of options since it's hard to figure out who might be around:

1) David Peterson, LHP from Oregon. He doesn't really have one out pitch but ruins people anyway with a 90s singer and slider combo. He walks nobody and strikes out the world (140:15 K-to-BB ratio in 100 IP, which is funny without "a strikeout pitch") but is essentially a 1-year wonder. Pitchers do that, though. Simplified mechanics and a slight change in arm slot can really turn a mediocre guy into a beast. I think Peterson is a beast with that low armslot that annihilates lefties and puts extra movement on his heater. He's got a changeup and a curve too, and should be on his way to being a complete pitcher. You want a lefty for the rotation who can do Paxton-type things in a couple years? It might be Peterson.

2) Seth Romero, LBP from No School. Funny story - Romero couldn't keep his act together long enough to stay on his college team (Houston). There was a potential shoving incident with some fans, a tweet of himself holding a bong, a failed drug test and probably some other shenanigans. There would be some research to do here, but Romero is a top-10-pick arm and the only reason he may freefall is that he has a 10-cent head. If you think he's got his head on straight, the talent is absolutely there - he struck out 80 dudes in 45 innings and consistently runs a 4:1 K-to-BB ratio with low-to-mid 90s stuff as a lefty. He's a wide-body, though, and his motivation is in the same boat as his maturity. If you don't like the risk in those areas you pass.

3) Tanner Houck, RHP from Missouri. Low arm slot, almost sidearm, but potentially NASTY stuff. He comes around the corner on righties and dumps a low-90s sinking fastball or biting slider in their laps. His secondaries wander in effectiveness, though, and with that armslot some people are almost certainly going to want him to go to the pen. As we all know, there's nothing I love more than taking a potentially-great starter and tossing him in the pen for no reason. With Diaz and now Povse having been bullpenned, I'm leery of drafting Houck for a one-inning setup role.

4) Alex Lange, RHP from LSU. Kind of like Houck in that he has a great arm but never really got better in college. He's an interesting sleeper who has a good fastball and a phenomenally great curve. Like Houck, he might be turned into a reliever the Papelbon Way to see if he can get a few more mph on his fastball, which Ms like to do. I like Lange, but he pulls his head off to the side rather severely as he throws which messes with his fastball accuracy. If someone can get him to keep his head more still through release he might find that consistency he needs to be a top arm.

5) Corbin Martin, RHP from Texas A&M. Reminds me of a typical As starter, really. Not a lot of hype, college team wasn't sure what to do with him, but he has upper-90s heat when he's in the pen or low-90s heat as a starter. He has the body and mechanics to start, so it's really up to whomever drafts him to figure out what they want from him. He's malleable, and I don't think ever really reached his peak in college thanks to limited innings. I think he's a late bloomer and someone will take him in the first.

There are a couple of prep arms, Sam Carlson and DL Hall who are interesting as well. Carlson is from my typically-preferred cold-weather clime (Minnesota in this case) where baseball players don't get that year-round uber-coaching that So Cal and Florida prospects get. If you like a cold-weather and a warm-weather teen the same, then take the cold weather one because he should have more growth left. DL Hall is a Kazmir type of lefty and I don't expect him to get down to Seattle, but if he does they'd probably snatch him up. I'm not interested in Griffin Canning, who keeps getting talked about at our slot. His motion is TERRIBLE - talk about a guy meant for a bullpen - and he's had some medical concerns pop up this week. To me he seems to have maxxed out his polish with his current motion but still doesn't have great stuff. Maybe it would tick up in a pen but I'm not taking a potentially-damaged reliever in the teens of the draft. No thanks.

- Our range is weird, and this is a draft of closely-clustered hitters and pitchers. I don't know who we're taking, but there are a bunch of good-but-not-obviously-great players in our area of the draft. Picking the right one could net BIG rewards. Picking the wrong one means the rest of the draft had better be pretty special, and we've been short on deep, special drafts for a while now as Mariners fans. We don't have a comp pick this time around and have a relatively small draft allowance. The Mariners pick at 17, 55 and 93 out of the top 100. They have work to do to restock the farm. Let's hope they nail some picks this time.

Blog:

Guest Posts

Tags:

draft

Mariners 2017 draft

prospects

Comments

My reax to the first 2 days

My top-10 immediate impressions (can't really "grade" for years but this is how interested I am in them). The grade also includes their expected cost and where they were drafted. I don't like Cooke's future potential more than White's, but I would have loved Cooke even if he were drafted earlier so the grade goes up. With that in mind:

1) Evan White - warm. (Like him, don't love him yet, but getting him with Edgar could change my mind to very warm and above REALLY quickly). I think he'll hit for average and field. If he can take more walks and find a bit more power - and the Ms have overtly stated they see some changes that could get his legs more into his swing - he could be really something. Still want to see him at first base, but the outfield is an option. Keep in mind: I'm the guy who didn't want Aaron Judge in the first a few years ago because I didn't think as an org we could make the right changes to make him effective. Spent too long looking at the Halmans and Balentiens of the world to believe, I guess, but with the Dipoto regime perhaps that's different. I'd feel better if DJ and Vogelbach and O'Neill were more major league ready, and we hadn't traded Jackson because we couldn't improve him either, but we'll see. This is a big call, and I very much want it to work out for Seattle.

2) Sam Carlson - very hot. His body is workload-ready, his stuff is nasty AND improving, he's eager to get to work... what's not to like? I think he's immediately the best pitcher in the system, and I'm the guy that likes Neidert AND Moore just fine. Steal of the draft for us.

3) Wyatt Mills - warm. He should probably get rated higher as a pinpoint sidewinder who throws low 90s to 95 (according to him and his coach). He also saved us $455K to throw at Carlson. Good pen arm right off the bat, Cishek-style.

4) Seth Elledge - very warm. Might be a starter or stay as a reliever, but his stuff is heavy and loud and he's built like he means business out there. I'm giving him the plus for his starter potential. Let's see what happens, but I'm interested to see how we use him next year (this one he'll probably stay as a reliever no matter what).

5) David Banuelos - lukewarm/cool. All this new pitching needs someone who can catch em and help them be all they can be, and Banuelos prides himself on his defensive abilities and his work with the staff. I don't know that his offense will ever be major league ready, but some people are really high on the improvement potential of that part of David's game - including the Mariners themselves - and he could always surprise.

6) Oliver Jaskie - warm. He throws hard enough to make it as a back-end starter, his deception and changeup are plus as well, and if it doesn't work out in the rotation he can still be a good pen arm. Solid pick.

7) Max Roberts - Incomplete. I got nothing. I haven't seen him, I don't have any video of him, his competition wasn't great... but he has a decent arm and we've had some success with this profile before. It's a scouting call and I'm sure we did our homework. I would expect this pick later in the draft, but we might save some money here as well to throw at Cooke.

8) Billy Cooke - hot. Hunter said it was "eye-popping the amount of conviction our scouts had in the type of kid he is, the athlete in him," and I'm on board with that. He reminds me of Seager when we drafted him. All the tools were there to be a decent player who might even make the majors - I even called Seager a future major leaguer on draft day (though I had him as a utility IF). I thought he might max out as a Blowers type. And then he worked his butt off to become an All-Star with a simple swing and the ability to stay within himself at the plate. I see a lot of that in Cooke, so I REALLY hope we can sign him.

9) Jorge Benitez - warm. We drafted Diaz out of Puerto Rico in much the same way, and trusted his skinny frame to fill out enough to support improvements in form and velocity. It worked out. This is something we can do, and the lefty Benitez is going to get the chance to be good - I just hope we let him start. Maybe the curveball he's already got gives him a better shot.

10) Randy Bell - lukewarm. He's a decent pitcher who's an absolute gamer, but until I see what he looks like in the pen I'm not sure how highly to value his future contributions. Maybe Seattle leaves him in the rotation instead, but either way I'm not counting on him for anything just yet even though he's certainly FAR from a wasted pick. I just want to see how he gets used and how he takes to that role. I expect to take his money and throw it at Cooke too, though, so in that regard it's another helpful pick that still has innate value.

------------------------

I think the Ms did as well in their first 10 as they have in several years. That's not saying a lot, since the Mariners have been the worst-drafting team in the League over the last 15+ years, but every step forward is a bonus. I don't think any pick is as good as Kyle Lewis was last year, but I think it's a deeper first 10 rounds than last year with more chances for major league contributors.

And potentially better yet, more chances for highly-rated players that Dipoto can then use to deal. It's hard to be a dealer with no merchandise. It's a good upside restock so far. I have no complaints.

Day three will come in batches

Day three will come in batches. Here are the first few as the Mariners restock their minor league pitching ranks with an early concerted effort:

11 - J.P. Sears, LHP Citadel. John "J.P." Sears is a 21 year old junior who strikes out the universe for The Citadel. Seriously, 13.4 K-per-9 as a starter with just 2.5 walks from a 5'11 lefty is pretty impressive - he led D-1 in Ks. Sadly he's not the ultra-spiritual JP Sears, though. Good article on how Sears gets everyone out with an 88-90 mph fastball. http://www.postandcourier.com/sports/he-s-just---and-pounds-but-citadel-... 3 pitches for strikes, all over the plate - we'll see where that takes him but he was a handful this year.

12 - Darren McCaughan, RHP from CSLB. Another junior, 6'1 200 pounds, control artist with a career 4.8 K:BB ratio... but just 7.5 K/9. He was a college ace but throws 84-88 with an 80-83 changeup and a 77-80 slider. He played on the USA Collegiate National Team with first round arms like Bukauskas, Faedo and Wright, but I have no idea what to expect from him with that stuff in the pros. Might be a move to the pen, but maybe not.

13 - Luis Alvarado, 6'5 RHP Nebraska. Third junior in a row. He was strictly a bullpen arm and is also a skinny beanpole from Puerto Rico (our preferred pitcher from there apparently). His Ks pitching line is fine though not all that impressive, but he only started pitching for Nebraska this year. He was playing outfield for them but just kept getting taller, and at 6'5 he finally agreed to be a two-way player. His future is definitely on the mound, but he's certainly a diamond-in-the-rough time as a position conversion (even though he pitched in high school).

14 - Trevor Casanova, C from El Camino College. Another great name for the system. Trevor Casanova must have been Anthony Weiner's fallback moniker. He apparently wants to be a police officer in the future for the LAPD but is a top-500 player in Baseball America's rankings. He came to his CC as as "utility player" but only because he's athletic enough to play positions other than catcher. He was drafted as a C and hit .390/ .490/ .640 for that team with a 37/24 eye. Being a cop might have to wait.

15 - Tommy Romero, RHP from Eastern Florida State College. A juco guy with a good build (6'2, 225) he struck out 14-per-9 this year with a K:BB or 145:18, leading all juco players in strikeouts. Yowza. He throws 91-94 as a starter with a slow, tight 12-6 curveball. He looks pretty legit. They could either take that and put him in the pen, or let him start. He doesn't seem to have a size or stamina problem, and his stuff seems fine.

If you want to read up on 2nd-rounder Carlson, hit LL

This is a great breakdown of why he's salivatory.

http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2017/6/14/15795160/how-excited-should-the-...

Picks 16-20

16 - Orlando Razo, LHP from UC-Davis. The pitching run continues. He was a 5'11 starter for UCD who bumped his Ks up a notch this season. 3/4 armslot and throws a high-80s fastball along with what I think is a curveball although it breaks more like a slider/slurve, and a decent change. Probably a reliever in the Ms system.

17 - Jamal Wade, RHP from Maryland. Another Junior - we're taking a lot of guys who can potentially turn us down, which is interesting. He's another former outfielder who converted to the mound this year. He pitched only in relief and walked 13 guys in 19.2 innings - but he also struck out 33. His summer league coach needed an extra arm last year and the former 6' high school pitcher raised his hand. He threw a "low-to-mid 90s fastball with a power curve." I don't know if he'll sign but he's more interesting fodder for the bullpen.

18 - Miles Christian, RH prep CF. 5'11 skinny kid with a lot of hook and late whip in his swing - kind of an early Dexter-Fowler look, just from the right side. Not a big prospect and he moved his graduation date up a year I think (I don't think he was expected to graduate until 2018). I don't really know anything about him, and I'm curious what the scouts saw to get the Mariners to pull the trigger on him here with the expectation that he will turn pro.

19 - Kevin Santa, LH SS from University of Tampa. He hit well (.420/ .500/ .605 with a 38 BB:23 K eye) in his two years at Tampa. He was 16-for-20 in steals across those years, and came out of the Puerto Rico Baseball Academy in high school. He's a 5'11 accounting major and according to his coach was their best player and a good defender... and that's all I got. Seattle is sticking to their gloves-only draft like it was chiseled in a tablet and carried down from a mount, but so far all those glove guys have potential.

20 - Troy Dixon, LH Senior C from St Johns. Hey, a 4-year senior at a D-1 school. Kinda rare for us in this draft. He only hit this year (every other year he had an OPS in the .600s) and his .450 BABIP is not really sustainable, but he's here to mentor the young arms. He did play well with wood bats in New England last summer, so his offensive improvement might be something other than luck, but I assume he's just an org catcher. Those are good to have, especially lefty catchers (which we are very short on).

21-30

21 - Connor Hoover, Junior LH SS from North Georgia. His college team was the Nighthawks of D-II ball, but he hit .360/ .480/ .705 for that team with a huge home run jump (18 this year against just 4 last year). Doesn't seem to be the best fielder, but if that bat improvement is legit a shift over to second base isn't exactly a death knell. I'm curious to see him.

22 - Johnny Adams, Senior RH SS from Boston College. He'll be 23 in September and he can't hit a lick (slugged under .300 this year with a .211 BA). It's good to have defense up the middle though, I guess. It helps the pitchers.

23 - Sam Delaplane, Senior RHP from Eastern MI. Back to our well of short pitchers; he's 5'11, 175. They let him start more as a senior, but he also pitched several games in relief and even got a save. He throws 90-94 though, with a reportedly good slider. Throw him on the reliever pile.

24 - Louis Boyd, Senior RH SS from Arizona. All the shortstops. ALL OF THEM. He can't hit either, but that's not really the point of a glove infielder I guess.

25 - Bryan Pall, Jr RHP from Michigan. Interesting because the RH reliever only pitched a handful of innings before his season ended with an injury. He was a freshman All-American two years ago and was a great pen arm for Michigan last year. This is a flier to see if he wants to leave college early rather than risk another injury there.

26 - Austin Hutchison, Senior RHP from Mt. Olive. Hutchison is a standard 9 K / 3 BB righty starter who was very hard to hit this year, keeping his ERA under 2. He grew 4 or 5 inches after high school to his now-6'2 frame and worked his way up from community college to now getting drafted. I don't know how much it improved his fastball, but he has a changeup and curve as well.

27 - Collin Kober, Senior RHP from McNeese St. He was a really good control pitcher for McNeese out of the pen, but his Ks just crossed 10 this year while keeping a 4:1 K:BB ratio. As of last year he was an upper-80s sidearmer, so we'll see if that keeps working for him.

28 - Johnny Slater, Senior CF fom Michigan. Our Gloves-Only draft remains 100% intact even at this late pick. Another guy who didn't hit at all his first 3 years but found it as a senior (.300 /.370 / .490). His batting eye is still .50 which isn't good in college, and he didn't hit at all with wood bats over the summer the last two years, but it's the 28th round - see what happens.

29 - David Gerber, Jr RHP from Creighton. He was Creighton's closer but was more of a location-and-angle guy than a brute force guy - another sidearm type.

30 - Scott Boches, Jr RHP from Marist College. He has the height at 6'5, 205, but his Ks were very soft until this year. He got 9K against 2.8 BB as a starter this year but has done relief work in the past.

With the recent Juvenile sex offender revelations

Would you give Luke Heimlich a shot? He probably wont get drafted, who knows what his status with OSU will be next year. As a big Beaver fan I have been following it pretty closely and the whole situation is just sad all the way around...

Still the guy has first three rounds talent and first round performance... do you give him a chance? Does ANYONE give him a chance?

DR D: This woudl make GREAT Konspiracy Korner fodder, BTW. And I woudl LOVE to hear all of your opinions on it. When is a juvenille offender "forgiven". If a person has paid their debt to society is it right to stop him from going to college? Getting a scholarship? Picthing in the major leagues? this is NOT a Josh Leuke situaton, the deed (which was horrendous), his admission, his sentencing and the consequences were all done with before he graduated high school. Also of keen intrest to me, what role does the media play into this? If you believe the Oregonian they accidentally stumbled upon the story and timed it perfectly to maximize clicks (and just so happened ruin Lukes college carrer year and mlb draft hope), also who did this story benefit? As far as i can tell only the Oregonians ad revenue, as most victim advocates are as up in arms about the poor girls outing as beaver fans are up in arms about messing with their glorious season (FIFTY games over .500!!! in a 54 games season, smh). Like I said, lots and lots of angles to go on this one...

After Leuke the Mariners can't afford the optics on Heimlich

It is sad all the way around, far more for the victim than for him. As a sexual abuse survivor myself I'll say it does all sorts of things to your brain at a young age, even if you forgive the person. Her family obviously has not forgiven him. But per the court documents the abuse started when the girl was 4 and continued til she was 6... and that ongoing situation is extremely hard to explain away. It makes me wonder all kinds of things about his own childhood but the second he gets a pro career there will be a microphone in his face and he's going to have to explain some things. "I was young and stupid" VASTLY understates things.

He's said he wants to be judged for the person he is now, but that's going to be hard for him to get across. He has a year now to figure out what to say when the time comes, and how to act in the meantime. He basically has to own it, IMO - speak out against sexual abuse, talk to at-risk teens, the whole nine. He has time to rehabilitate his image so this is not the last thing people know about him - but it's also going to always be the first thing they associate with him.

Turning that into a positive in his life and others is going to take work. He's a great pitcher, and he's obviously no stranger to putting in work. This is going to be the tough part now. I hope he finds a way to effect those changes, whether or not it leads back to a big-league career or a future in baseball.

Gunnar Buhner

Apparently nobody picked him in the 40 rounds. Non-drafted FA?

31-40

31 - Ryan Costello, JR RH 3B from Central CT St. Does third base still count as a glove position? As glovy as a corner gets, I guess. He's a junior so he can go back, but the Ms should be able to persuade him to come out. .296/ .423/ .532 this year with a 45 BB/ 38 K eye. Don't be surprised if we draft 1B teammate TT Bowens in a couple of years either.

32 - Ryan Garcia, senior LH 1B from Point Loma Nazarene U. Hit .344 / .456 / .688 with 40 BB against just 20 Ks, posted a .992 fielding %... he was a top-20 D-II prospect before the year and he only got better. I don't know how you tell whether a D-II slugger has the goods, though. BA had him as the 28th-best 1B in this draft and the #485 prospect. Eric Wagaman, the 24th best 1B (Again, according to BA) went in the 13th round to the Yankees as the 12th 1B taken. Who knows, might be a sleeper - a senior sleeper at a bat-first position. Yeah...

33 - Chris Castellanos, senior LHP from Stanford. Just 5'10, another pen arm. Nickname is "Casty" (seriously) so obviously he was meant to be a Mariner. He started at Stanford all season but with his career K/9 at 5.21 in college I expect that pen move to be immediate.

34 - David Hesslink, senior LHP from MIT. Yes, that MIT - he's the winningest pitcher in their history. He's going to join Seattle's front office after he graduates as an analytics guru, so drafting him is just a nice touch. Welcome to the organization David.

35 - Hunter Lonigro, prep RHP. It took until now for the "Respek Drafting" to start, where you draft a high schooler to let him know you like him even though you have very little chance of signing him away from his college commitment - or because his dad works (or worked) for your org. It's the sports version of locker valentines. He's already 6'3 and 190, and played both basketball and baseball in cold-weather PA, but I have nothing on him. I assume his dad is Greg Lonigro, since Greg's a scout. Looks like a favor draft but I'm happy for him.

36 - Heston Kjerstad, prep switch-hitting CF. Fast, tall (might be 6'3 already), good frame and a decent teen swing. Doesn't have a great arm but we've had that in the OF before. Committed to Arkansas as a business major, but will probably at least think about signing with the Mariners. They can always offer to pay for his later college schooling (which for whatever reason does NOT come out of the draft budget) and see what happens. Unless of course they've changed that rule.

37 - Jesse Franklin, prep CF. Local kid (Seattle Prep!) whom BA ranked as the #230 prospect. He's got a pretty strong committment to Michigan, so this should just be that previously-mentioned respect pick.

38 - Kolby Somers, LH prep pitcher from Century HS. Committed to play at Oregon on essentially a full-ride, so congrats to him. Looking forward to seeing him with the Ducks.

39 - Jack Smith, RH SS from Mercer Island. Going to Washington State, where my niece is currently getting her degree as a physical trainer and working with the sports teams as an athletic trainer. Go Cougs.

40 - Zach Needham, SH 3B from Edmonds CC. Interestingly he is committed to play at the University of Houston right now, so don't expect him to sign just because he's a juco prospect. He might sneak into the system though.