October 2009
Posted by jemanji on 10/30/09
28 Comments
We'd been struggling to come up with an MLB archetype who matches to the attributes that the Bane of High Desert is reported to have. But hey, in the fewest-walks leaderboard, we ran across Danny Haren:
6' 5"
91-94 fastball
7+ K, yet 1+ walks
Upright, arm-intensive delivery
Until somebody comes up with a better comp, I think I'll go with Haren ...
.............
In the comments, it was suggested that Pineda might have a high-elbow, generally-violent, top-heavy delivery.
Any problemos with Pineda's delivery would obviously relate to his health, rather than his command, since he evidently... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/30/09
13 Comments
In the comments, we're noodling around with some current M's prospects. .. that being a somewhat unexpected angle, considering that we wrote five articles assessing our 2006-07 prospects. :- )
But I'll take it, of course, along with the renewed deference that we're showing the tools scouts who did such an awesome job for BA three years ago.
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=== Super Sabr Star Dept. ===
Noodling around with those current M's prospects, amigos looked and looked again and looked a third time and kind of went .... um, how did Michael Pineda do THAT at High Desert?
For those who just joined us, the high-A... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/30/09
18 Comments
=== Scouting Report ===
In case you didn't click over to Jason's fine article, Pineda is given credit for an Orel Hershiser assortment of pitches -- plus FB, plus slider, plus change, all thrown with Jamie Moyer command:
"He could have hit a target on a fly's back from a thousand yards away," an NL scout in attendance said. "It's always fun to see a young pitcher with good stuff throw all of his pitches for strikes and spot the fastball all over the zone."
Which explains why Pineda has way too much for low-minors hitters, even at High Desert. A located 93 fastball will get MLB hitters out... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/29/09
9 Comments
Jason offers a fresh read on His Stras-ness. We suggest you go check it out directly -- comment #4 is worth the price of admission alone. :- ) ... then if you're still hungry, we've got a few crackers to go with the cheese.
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=== Jason I ===
There's always been this contingency side of the payroll ledger the M's come up with on occasion and blow payroll for a player. It's only happened once or twice, but if the M's are serious about Chapman, they'll have to do it again.
How true.
We remember the M's offering ARod what, $17M per, and immediately everybody started calculating what else... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/29/09
"When it comes to prospects, no one looks into that crystal ball better than the people at Baseball America. The Prospect Handbook is their crowning achievement." -- Billy Beane.
If it's Beane's opinion, it's worth consideration.
"Properly analyzing and ranking prospects is not an easy job, as any general manager will tell you. But any GM will also tell you that he has a Baseball America Prospect Handbook on his desk." - Pat Gillick, also from the blurbs on the back of the book.
"Tools scouts, including those like Jim Callis who are not employed by MLB, are crazy better than... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/29/09
9 Comments
#1-3 Prospects 2007
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=== #4 Tony Butler, LHP ===
Had thrown a few innings in the low minors after the draft.
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Baseball America: Had a lousy start to his amateur season, throwing 86-87 mph, but Mariners scouts Bohringer and Madeja believed in him, and Butler suddenly jumped to 94-95 right before the draft...
Seattle stole him with a 3rd-rounder ...
Fastball is 92-95 and has late life... uses tall frame to leverage it down in the zone... buckles knees with his curve ...
Mature, intelligent, and fearless... [stiff mechanical motion needs work] ... ceiling = number 2 starter in the bigs... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/29/09
19 Comments
seattlesportsinsider.com/news/baseball-america-3-years-4-6">#4-6 Prospects 2007
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=== #7 Mark Lowe ===
In 2006, had nuked AA till it glowed, and come up to Seattle, fanning 20 men in 19 innings.
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Baseball America: Always projected as a reliever ... stuff jumped when he changed to his proper role...
Fastball is 94-96 with "quality life" ... Hard slider has late, quick break and "chews up righthanders" ... changeup is also plus-plus at times.
Tons and tons of health questions... no cartilage in the elbow joint... future is uncertain...
If he regains health and stuff, will close in the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/29/09
11 Comments
#7-9 Prospects, 2007
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=== #10 Eric O'Flaherty ===
Had looked good in short innings at AA and got a quick callup to Seattle, where he posted a 4.09 ERA with lousy sabermetrics.
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Baseball America: Missed out on a college WS championship after skipping to pros rather than Oregon STate... no regrets; made the majors quickly...
When fresh, throws 90-94 "that darts all over the place" and hard 85 slider... deceptive delivery...
Moxie for late innings...
Had lost velo by the time he got to the majors... struggles physically with starting...possible lefty in bullpen in bigs.
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Three Years On: ... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/29/09
2 Comments
Here is a group of young major-league players coming up into their first arbitration seasons (mostly) in 2011. Would you make this trade, right here right now:
2.0 WAR Adam Jones, cf
0.2 WAR Brandon Morrow, SP
1.0 WAR Wladimir Balentien, of
1.3 WAR Mark Lowe, RP
Plus minor-league prospects Chris Tillman, SP.... Tony Butler, SP ... and Jeff Clement, C
for
1.5 WAR Joba Chamberlain, SP
2.2 WAR Phillip Hughes, SP/RP
-0.1 WAR Ian Kennedy, RP
4th OF / Stan Javier comp Brett Gardner, OF
Plus minor-league prospects Humberto Sanchez, SP ... Dellin Betances, SP ... and 20-year-old, RH, 160-lb... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/29/09
5 Comments
Visitor axed about Kelly Johnson as a possible 90% Orlando Hudson for 30% the cost. Fortunately for Visitor, we've got a crack sabr-surgeon on hand who roots Braves. :- )
Enter San-Man. He sez,
Kelly Johnson came in, hit up a storm, and I was thinking, (at the time), OH BOY! A good hitting, young middle infielder ... he could be the next Chipper ... a decades long All-Star, but at an even juicier position than 3B. But, like many players who start off big, the league adjusted, and he's struggled a bit, since.
KJ's Runs Created per 27 outs in 2007 was 6.1 and 5.4, right where Orlando... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/29/09
San-Man answered our Q's on Kelly Johnson, which got Eye-Gor to noodling around in the cave...
KJ's actually a pretty clear template from a sabermetric standpoint. He got off track by (1) cutting down his swing (a lot) to make contact, and (2) expanding his strike zone (a lot) to not make contact.
Could a great batting coach fix him? Well, you be da judge...
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=== What Time Is the Game Over, Dept. ===
KJ's contact rate on swings in the zone went wayyyyyy up in 2009 ... Johnson made contact on a preposterous (for him) 94% of all swings, when the ball was inside the strike zone.
94% - KJ
79... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/28/09
1 Comments
Q. Is Walter done?
A. That's certainly the easy thing to assume.
At the press conference, Jim Mora was reportedly hesitant and melancholy when asked whether Jones had any chance to play next year.
When asked about Jones' chance to play again, Robbie Tobeck politely stated that he assumed that Jones would retire, simply "because of the type of injury it is," not because of any inside information.
All the beat writers, of course, were sour - the consensus was that if Walter played again, it wouldn't be for the Seahawks. (?? - who would be more motivated to give him a chance?)
Kevin Calabro... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/28/09
Part I
..
Q. Any baseball segways as to Jones’ chances of returning?
A. First thing that I thought of, when hearing all the obituaries, was the 39-year-old Lefty Grove going 15-4, 2.54 as a lefthand pitcher in Fenway Park (185 ERA+). The rules are different for the special guys.
...
I have a lot of fun watching super-dominant athletes in any sport. When Wayne Gretzky, Jari Kurri and Mark Messier were together with the Oilers, I watched hockey a lot. :- ) With Van Persie, Arshavin and Fabregas getting 3.5 goals a game for Arsenal, I watch Fox Soccer Channel a lot.
It's been a lot of... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/28/09
7 Comments
Part II
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Q. So the Hawks lost Walter Jones, LT, and Mike Wahle, LG, in one shot... but they had a good idea both were hurt. Why didn't they plan better?
A. They did.
Their plan was for Locklear to play LT, Willis to play RT, and they brought in Unger as well. What messed up their plan was not Jones and Wahle's injuries, but Locklear's and Willis', especially Locklear's.
The Seahawks had a ton of OL's. How many linemen can you carry at one time?
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Q. Why would Jones want to play? He's got the money and the respect, right? Doesn't he want to be able to walk when he's 50?
A. Lorenzo... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 10/28/09
6 Comments
A Canadian in Lara ============
CF everyday for Los Cardinales de Lara, Liga de Venezuela de Beisbol Profesional, Mr. Michael Saunders of Victoria, BC. And he is mashing.
8 G, 32 AB, 11 H, 4 xbh (1 HR, 2 3b, 1 2b), 4 BB (12 K oops) for .344/.417/.594
Doesn't mean much, but good to see him in center and the two triples are cool. I'm the one always pointing out that Saunders was a hockey, lacrosse and hoops star as a youth. Dude's an athlete (and still getting all the baseball stuff down).
The Talented Mr. Ackley Goes to Peoria==========
one-inning-nothing-across, one was 1.1 IP with 2... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/27/09
8 Comments
Larry Stone with a fun piece on his favorite plays in a baseball game.
Supposing you were going to go to one game this week, and didn't know a thing about it, other than that it was going to have one particular play in it. You didn't know the opponent, the starting pitcher, the outcome... but you did get to pick Tuesday, Friday, or Saturday based on knowing it would have a particular play in it. Which play would you want to see?
I agree with Stone on #1, #4, and #6 in his article, but beyond that, here are the fave plays in Jemanji's warped reality...
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Z. A good baserunner kill.
In the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/27/09
Part I
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W. A football score.
I'd much rather see the Mariners win 14-11 than 6-0. That's just me. When the M's start stringing hits, I can never get enough.
Some biz pards invited us to club seats in the Mezzanine a few years ago when the Mariners scored 10 runs in a single inning; the M's next-biggest inning that whole year was 5 runs.
Do you think that the M's lack of bbbbbiiiggggg innings lately might be traceable to their low BB totals? You've usually got to let a pitcher get into trouble before you can cave his head in. (Enter the mandatory pitch for high-BB, high-pressure... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/27/09
9 Comments
Part II
M's-specific Joys of Baseball? Those being:
....
1. Russell Branyan's Bat Drop.
If you play weekend golf, you know the feeling when you occasionally hit one so well that you cannot feel the club hit the ball.
It's a combination of two things -- (1) the ball meets the clubface at the sweet spot, and (2) your acceleration is perfect.
When Russell torches one 425 feet, he's balanced at the end like a PGA Tour player, and he just ... feather-soft drops the bat in its own shadow.
Incredibly gorgeous, ain't it? My fave part of a Branyan mortar shot is the delicate little bat-drop at... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/27/09
Part IV
More baseball plays that go into the "Weak" not Sleek category in jemanji's altered reality...
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D. Outfielders crashing into walls.
It's one play vs. 162 games and it never hits me as courageous. It hits me as sad.
Supposing that Felix Hernandez could win one game, Tuesday, by throwing one great 99-mph fastball in the 8th inning --- rip his rotator cuff, but win the game? Is that bittersweet, or is it just bitter?
Ichiro doesn't crash or dive. That's the outfielder's equivalent of refusing to throw 160 pitches in a game. It's nothing other than commendable.
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E. A crisp... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/27/09
5 Comments
Part III
Don't tell anybody, but here are some baseball plays I actually find annoying. If I knew the game was going to be loaded with these, I'd probably stay home :- )
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A. The perfectly-executed hit and run.
If I had a baseball team, there would be no such thing as a hit-and-run play. Sound weird? Earl Weaver's Orioles did not have this play either. They literally never used it. (They did use a run-and-hit, wherein the runner attempted to steal second base.)
Every time they talk about a RH hitter needing to hit a groundball to right field, I cringe. Suppose Roy Halladay is... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/26/09
2 Comments
FLIP: Jeff Sullivan with another fine essay, this one on Raul Ibanez and the championship that would fittingly cap Raauuul's career.
Jeffy proposes that there are four basic attributes to The Player Who Deserves a Ring...
1. Veteran - has paid the dues
2. Hard Worker - has paid the dues
3. A Good Player - see chop
4. A Good Person
...
CHOP: Lemme throw these four dice into the Yahtzee cup, shake, and re-throw.
All of these relate to another Grand Theme: we all hate to see hard work go for naught. ... my son, John, has played basketball and baseball while growing up, and has always... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/26/09
16 Comments
Q. What is the skill set here?
A. The skill set starts with 5.5 runs created per 27 outs.
For those who don't breathe baseball like Space Guilders breathing spice gas, that means that if you had 9 Orlando Hudsons lined up on your Strat-O-Matic team, you'd score 5.5 runs per game.
In the NL, that offense would win 94 games. Obviously that's seriously sweet production from a guy who is playing second base.
.........
Hudson peaked up to 5.7 runs per 27 outs the three years prior to 2009, and then produced 5.3 per game this year.
By way of comparison, Jose Lopez' RC/27 was only 4.2 this... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/26/09
SABRMatt kicks the ball off with a comprehensive argument against Orlando Hudson. I don't see it quite as cut-and-dried as that, but it's a terrif post. Gracias bro'.
Just for the sake of kicking the ball around the field, lemme jump in ... :- )
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Q. What about Hudson running a very high OPS in the 1H's and then tailing off?
A. Will sign on the dotted line here, mates. There are half-a-dozen little things indicating that Hudson's body isn't allowing him to go 155 games. Matty's judgment is spot on, in my view.
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Q. Is the ISO a problem?
A. Actually, it could be. Huh.
Run as a... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/26/09
2 Comments
Q. Why did Joe Torre bench Hudson?
A. It might have had a little something to do with the fact that Ronnie Belliard was slugging .636 for the Dodgers -- .350 with 5 homers and 7 doubles in less than a month.
Picture the M's in a pennant drive, Eric Chavez nicked and dinged up really good, and Ryan Langerhans comes in here and hits .350 with five homers in three weeks. You think Langerhans is going to get some AB's?
So I wouldn't worry too much that Hudson's career is over. He has a tendency to get banged up late in the year, and Belliard was going bananas. Belliard's a quality player... Read More
Posted by SABR Matt on 10/26/09
8 Comments
Hudson has been a blog-o-sphere darling for his useful OBP -heavy bat, his well-touted plus defense, and his good clubhouse personality. Now we are hearing that Jack Zduriencik is interested in signing Hudson to play second base for us next year...once again signalling that he's even more interested in trading Jose Lopez. He must have a plan in store for what he wants to get for Lopez, but irrespective of that situation, I'd just like to make the case AGAINST signing O-Dawg.
First...his bat:
While it is true that Hudson has thus far been a very useful top-of-the-order bat, has a good eye... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/24/09
12 Comments
FLIP:
I didn't say that there weren't a few pitchers who performed well for stretches of time. Of course there were. What I pointed out was that those guys didn't pitch MUCH. Yeah, Bedard was great, for 83 innings. RRS looked good, but only threw 96 frames. Washburn is a big regression candidate, but he was ditched with a full third of the season left so he contributed only 133 innings. As I said in my original comment (in the portion you left out) this team had to turn to a whole bunch of junk in order to get through games. That means bringing in even decent pitchers can make a big... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/24/09
1 Comments
When we 'promote' a post to the front page, and chop the lob back atcher, it isn't to emphasize disagreement.
As you know, we're in a bit of raise-the-visibility mode at SSI, amigos... quality volume helps with that... again, we have the privilege of a sleek, stable platform with no premiums or even advertising, so we appreciate your indulgence on the scaffolding :- )
When we move a letter / post to the front page, it's because the idea contained is weighty enough to stimulate fresh thought ... if you'll take the 'promotions' as compliments, and have at me in the comments attached, I'll... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/24/09
2 Comments
Q. But if Hardy's line drive % has gone down the last 5 years -- how then do you explain how 2008 was his best year at the plate? 2007 was very similar. So until 2009, Hardy seemed to be coming into his own.
A. Well, first of all, there are two reasonable interpretations of Hardy's trend. The positive interpretation is that the LD% doesn't matter, I guess. A Shandlerite might say, "once a player shows a skill, he owns it," and the 2007-08 production could be viewed as latent.
The pessimistic interpretation is that the underlying skills are what matter, and that the results are... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/23/09
8 Comments
Mariner Central boss-man Lonnie with a sssmmmmmmokinn'! set of "Now What?" 's at each Mariner position. I mean this dude ain't kiddin' around ... detailed assessment of '09, complete list of FA's this winter, quick-takes on each FA, interesting op-ed's on each...
I think I better retire pretty soon.
Anyway, how 'bout a link, an exec sum of Lonnie's position, and my own ten-cent kibitz... today let's kibitz Mariner Central on the shortstops for 2010.
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=== Exec Sum Dept. ===
Lonnie opines that Jack Wilson is not only a question with the bat, but also with the training room, which is... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/23/09
10 Comments
FLIP: In this post, Cool Papa follows Matty by noting that a big part of the M's #1 ERA was actually run prevention...
ERA is heavily affected by ballpark and defense. The M's play in a pitchers park and have a great defense, both of which should return (the loss of Beltre will be offset by having a competent fielder man shortstop the entire year). The actual performances of the pitchers weren't that great.
Matt, using his home-brewed metrics, pegs the 2009 staff as "the league's fifth best" and Cool Papa actually assesses it as "below average."
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CHOP: Objectively speaking... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/23/09
4 Comments
=== Dr's Diagnosis ===
Of one thing you can be sure: put three CF's in Safeco and you're going to get nice defensive impact. (The 2009 Mariners didn't have impact infielders, except Beltre.)
Of one thing you CANNOT be sure: that a great DER in Safeco will repeat from one year to the next. In 2001, for example, the M's DER was "eerily better than the rest of the league," according to Baseball Prospectus. But in 2002, that DER reverted -- with Mike Cameron still in center, Ichiro in right, and a better outfielder (Mark McLemore rather than Al Martin) in right.
If you are thinking that... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/22/09
15 Comments
You know what? ... if we could find a little bit softer phrasings, when we think we've got a fellow MC/DOV'er on the wrong side of something, that would be great.
Not saying that I don't need to work on it, too. Friendliness + fresh thought = recharge (from the day's real work). At least that's what I want to see in my info-tainment...
...............
Is there any upside to contradicting each other so bluntly?
Let's grant for a second that I have the absolute truth on some point or other -- which is much less likely than I think it is -- and one of the 140-IQ posters here has actually... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/21/09
32 Comments
Q. How do you figure that only +100 runs added gets us anywhere near the playoffs?
A. The M's did have a negative run differential in 2009, but as pointed out several times, their team OPS was even-steven with their opponents'.
The difference between you and me, is that I'm giving the '09 guys credit for being 50-50 on bases (runs) gained and lost. For 2010, I'm starting from the premise that the 2010 run differential will be =, give or take a few.
.............
If we could agree that we're starting from 50-50, then of course an added +100 leaves us at a nice even +100 runs. ... and... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/20/09
1 Comments
Q. What's with shticking-up another NL Central retread?
A. The NL Central is providing a target-rich environment for Capt Jack's triple guns. Also, on the M's offseason treasure map, the 6 is where X marks the spot.
Also, this interesting sea route provides a three-step, back-where-we-started-hopefully-richer-and-wiser path around the SS-2B-SP Bermuda Triangle: SP Danks, SS Hardy, 2B Hudson for SP Morrow, SS Wilson, 2B Lopez.
So, if you're interested, we're interested. As you know, we live to serve.
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Q. Are you a Hardy fan?
A. I'm not, no.
That's not the same thing as saying I don... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/20/09
27 Comments
Part I
Q. Before we get to the Bad & Ugly, how are the cheekbones on this Triangle concept?
A. Thing I like best about the Danks-Hudson-Hardy for Morrow (RRS?) -Lopez-Wilson pirouette is that it slides the org problem from SS to 2B.
The hole at SS is enough to make a lesser GM wake up with the night terrors; fixing second base is a completely different thing. Hey, Matt Tuiasosopo could then play second, for that matter.
Don't forget that the Danks-Hudson-Hardy pivot costs $5M in salary plus Mark Lowe -- essentially two more important players. But, still, Danks is a very fine... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/20/09
13 Comments
Part I
Part II
Q. OK, Hardy's sabermetrics are on scary trend. How about from a scouting standpoint?
A. A lot depends on whether you consider the Milwaukee Brewers MLB (TM) organization to offer any valid scouting on the subject.
If so, you watched as the Brew tossed him overboard to the sharks and, just to make sure he couldn't scale the hull on the way back, followed it up with a shark-chum bucket chaser.
I mean, he could rebound, like Bill Hall could. But slap me silly! For your own org to send four guys to grab wrists and ankles and heave-ho you, right after a great season... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/19/09
2 Comments
=== Huskies 17, Arizona 24 ===
We remember back in the M's 2nd or 3rd year or something, Paciorek hitting a walk-off HR to beat the Yankees... and in two or three public bathrooms that week, we saw M's 5 Yanks 4 YEAHHHH and stuff of that nature. It was a 20-year type win. And IIRC the M's did another one that same series.
Hugh Millen, on the radio, pointed out that if you went all the way back through the history of college football, you might never see a team suffer a last-play Win and Loss the way as bizarrely as the Huskies just did.
A pass bounces off a receiver's foot (?!), taken all... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/19/09
29 Comments
Just a pleasant thought, driveby.
.............
Suppose the M's are set, at 3B and C, which I believe they are. Zduriencik warns that Tui and Moore need to work hard, but these two kids, it's time to pitch them the ball.
Supposing 3B and C. You're set, CF, RF, right? You're set 1B with Branyan, 2B with Lopez.
You've got Felix-RRS-Snell-Morrow, and Doogie, Bedard after that.
You can think DH but you don't have a hole there, with Carp and/or Jr-Sweeney.
............
You've now got almost $30M to spend after Russell Branyan's money. About all you're really needing to think about is LF... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/19/09
12 Comments
Q. Are you okay with Adam Moore in 2010?
A. I am, yes.
1. He's going to be 26 years old, a college player with another 3.5 years of pro minors time, 1500+ AB's. He's a guy who hit .300 in AAA last year. ... He's wellllll along his development arc.
2. He's got a real quick bat, can wait on the ball, and so has a better chance of defending himself than a big pull hitter with a poor EYE. ... he's the KIND of hitter I'll bet on to transition "acceptably." The disaster scenario is less likely with him than with a Greg Halman type.
3. The M's love his D, of course, so his glove will... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/19/09
17 Comments
Q. By the way, what does $8M buy?
A. Not everybody is hardcore saber, so...
If you took 10 free agents from any offseason, and they averaged $10M each, they'd all get $100M.... and for that $100M, those ten guys would improve their new teams by about 200-250 runs, total. That's what analysts do, is add up all the salary spent, and then all the runs created, and divide it up.
This method was invented not by one of the 21st-century sites, but by John Benson in the 1980's. Benson is a roto champ and a Certified Public Accountant, and he showed us how to valuate player contributions... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/19/09
20 Comments
Q. How in the WORLD did Zduriencik make this happen without any buyout.
A. In case you haven't caught on, kiddies, Zduriencik is one whale of a hardball GM.* He is polite about it, he's cordial and professional, but he's just a guy you don't cross. You don't take advantage of him, and you don't even ask.
.............
This had been our early impression of the guy, but when Mentink interviewed him about Junior in 2010, he politely goes "in the end, nice stories are nice stories, but we have to go forward..."
We've run into our share of execs ... you know what the first thing is, that... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/15/09
28 Comments
Flip: Kikuchi Yusei headlines MLB.com in connection with, guess which MLB team. Well, admittedly, along with six others.
Chop: I can't imagine that Kikuchi is going to meet with twelve slaving ships, then seven rich dukes, and then turn and ask for the shackles, can you?
The article is describing a Clayton Kershaw 2.0. I am hugely skeptical of high school pitchers taken in the first round, and was of Kershaw in relative terms. But a picture is worth 1,000 words, and Kershaw has me thinking that I'll take all of the LH, 96-mph teenagers you got.
............
Kershaw's meltdown tonight... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/15/09
=== Shoe-Salesmen WR's ===
With all the Seahawks on the radio tonight, we were struck by the fear in their voices regarding the Cardinals' passing game.
Starting with Larry Fitzgerald, they pretty much talk the Cards up as a juggernaut. Mora, for example: You can be all over Fitzgerald, blanketed, and he'll still make the catch just because he's taller and longer than the guy covering him.
And Warner will throw when your back is turned, so you're trying to deal with Fitzgerald's moves and the ball comes and you look back too late anyway.
Brock Huard was pretty hilarious on the radio,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/15/09
Coach interviewed on KJR today. Like with a juice box, you get 5% real juice and 95% shtick. You guess which 5% is real.
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Q. What is the deal with Hasselbeck? Is he this good?
A. The number one thing about Matt is his decisionmaking. He picks out the best option and picks it out very quickly.
That's the number one thing that we coaches look for in any QB -- much more than arm, or physical gifts, what separates QB's are the choices they make.
In baseball, we might compare this to a hitter having the signs. It's fine to talk about one hitter having a slightly faster launch than... Read More
Posted by Sandy on 10/14/09
10 Comments
So, how good were the 2009 Mariners REALLY?
By record, they were 85-78, and 12 games behind the Angels, (and 10 out of the WC).
Comparing offensive to defensive OPS, they were .716 - .710 -- (about as close to .500 as one could get).
If you simply normalize for the 1-run game record, (35-20), to a standard 18-17, (willing to give them the extra half win just to avoid fractions), they would be 78-84.
By pythag, they were only 75-87, (640-692 run split).
The truth is, to reasonably assess a team in hindsight, one SHOULD look at as many different angles as one can. The range runs from 75 wins... Read More
Posted by Sandy on 10/13/09
27 Comments
In the previous two parts, I noted that after the 2007 season, mistakes were made by ignoring pythag and by ignoring age issues before looking at 2008. My third and final strike of assessment mistakes (to hopefully avoid in the future) is: Don't get so focused on what was broken that you don't take time to at least attempt to keep what did work in fighting trim.
In 2007, the end of season assessment was that the back end of the rotation was to blame for not having done even better than the 88 wins the team achieved. A commonly held belief was that if the club could get some decent talent... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/13/09
3 Comments
I/O: Seahawks Nation marvelling over 'the difference that Matt Hasselbeck makes in this offense'.
CRUNCH: It is important not to think of Matt Hasselbeck as Player X in Offense Y.
Hasselbeck is an NFL offense. As we noted here, before the season started, Hasselbeck's ability has been camoflaged for two years, but he is one of half-a-dozen NFL QB's who have "solved" football.
Put ten average (not below-average) vanilla players around Matt Hasselbeck, and you have a contending-quality NFL offense.
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I/O: The Seahawks score 41 points with a left tackle they called at about 11:30 a.m. the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/13/09
4 Comments
Q. I'm concerned that 17-year-olds will imitate this.
A. For some reason, Schmitt's berserker act became controversial in Seattle. It was immediately controversial on the radio ("Call in! Stupid or inspired?) and we see it's controversial in the papers.
You think it would be controversial in Pittsburgh or Green Bay?
When Chicago was doing the Super Bowl Shuffle, Jim McMahon used to crash helmets with ... his offensive linemen. He developed serious neck problemos. The city of Chicago's reaction was: you better be ready to play, Jimbo. :- )
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Q. But what about when some high-school... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/13/09
Q. What is the D-O-V crunch on Schmitt's hari-kiri act? Was it kind of stupid, or does it prove that Schmitt is wired up, or what?
A. For those who just joined us, Schmitt bashed himself in the face with his helmet during the Jacksonville pregame. This left him looking like a Jason Voorhees customer.
About four rivers of blood were meandering down the Appalachians of his craggy face. The cut men stitched him up, and then the game was ready to start.
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Q. That was just a stupid thing to do, or he's a legit Captain Insano?
A. One year, Schmitt was named ESPN.com's "Top College... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/13/09
9 Comments
Slops first, but don't take 'em too hard ... the props volume is also cranked up to 11 :- )
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Q. Wow. The Mariners are in on Aroldis Chapman. If they nab him, they'll have the left hand Stephen Strasburg AND Dustin Ackley!
A. To which we can confidently respond, "huh?"
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Q. Chapman isn't the LH Strasburg?
A. He is not, no.
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Q. I thought he threw 100 mph. You were all over Strasburg at DC Sports Insider.
A. Even if Chapman throws 100* -- which I highly doubt -- he's still not Stephen Strasburg. He's not even Tim Lincecum. Not by a long shot.
*more than occasionally
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Q. ... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/13/09
3 Comments
PART I
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Q. Okay, so Strasburg and Lincecum were field-tested as 22nd-century weapons and they laid the battlefields waste in live drills. Chapman hasn't.
But Chapman still has a 100 fastball.
A. The videos I've seen, Aroldis Chapman sits 91-94 mph.
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Q. Um, what?
A. Chapman throws 94. Not 100. He throws Brett Anderson velocity.
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Q. Care to hedge that statement?
A. CAVEAT: I wouldn't doubt that ML scouts have had days when they saw the lad touch 98, maybe even 100. (Against Japan in San Diego, he reportedly had at least one pitch clock 100.)
And maybe there were days when... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/13/09
13 Comments
PART I
PART II
Q. Wait, you would have drafted this dude right behind Strasburg and Ackley?
A. The good news is, he does show an overpowering fastball. He does throw three different breaking pitches, all of which can embarrass good hitters.
And whether he's young or not, he is definitely early in his development, which amounts to the same thing.
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Q. Overpowering fastball?
A. In the vids available, Chapman is being clocked at 91-94 but even WBC Japanese hitters are having lots of trouble catching up to it.
It's a Morrow-type fastball, tight-spin, excellent life. The ball jumps out... Read More
Posted by Sandy on 10/12/09
continuing with the errors in the post 2007-season assessment ...
2) Age decline -- After the 2007 season, with 88 wins, the blame for not doing even better was laid at the feet of the pitching staff. The offense in 2007 finished 2nd in BA, 7th in OBP, 7th in slugging, 6th in OPS, and 7th in runs scored in the AL. It was a middle-of-the-pack offense, which would return 8 of its 9 starters. While nobody was thrilled with replacing Jose Guillen with Brad Wilkerson, the general belief was that Wlad Balentien would eventually step into the OF picture, and that the offense would likely be... Read More
Posted by Sandy on 10/12/09
14 Comments
ASSUMPTIONS
What do you get when you begin with assumptions?
sum into passmust piss on a ...u spit on masssit maps on usspam is not usspasm on suit
What the above demonstrates is that order is important. On the field, this is easy to see. A homer, triple, double, single, walk (in that order), scores two or three runs. In the opposite order, it scores five. The reality of roster management and team building is not so different.
After the 2007 season, there was a choice about "going for it" in 2008. The club had just won 88 games, and finished a paltry 6 games behind the Angels for the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/10/09
1 Comments
Q. So the 6 / $110m estimate has found its level?
A. Since our kibitz on Buster Olney's fine video blog, we notice that the blog-o-sphere generally takes Olney as the baseline for a Felix deal. Walkabout the cyber outback and six years, roughly $100m seems to be accepted as best guess.
What Olney actually estimated -- actually relayed from the GMs' estimates -- was 6 years and $105 to $110m.
As detailed at Mariner Central, that's $11m next year, $13m the year after, and $20-22m for four years of FA buyout.
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Q. Any new precedents to add to the discussion?
A. Tim Dierkes, at... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/10/09
14 Comments
Q. Can you win short-term after a Felix trade?
A. It would be easier.
On paper -- on a Win Shares or WAR spreadsheet -- it's a piece of cake to trade Felix and add 3-5 wins overall.
You can deal a 5-WAR Felix for two 3-WAR players and then you can spend his $10-20m in the free agent market.
Hey, I'm stars & scrubs. You stuff the family shillings into the 5 highest roster spots, and then you go about improving the more fungible roster spots.
But! There's an exception to that. You trade your #1 player if you can get TWO DIFFERENT Stars for him. You definitely trade a $1.00... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/08/09
10 Comments
Q. Where did the consensus come from, that the Mariners need to add "twentyish" wins this winter? Add 20 wins ... to do what?
A. In this excellent article, see comment #3, which references this very fine article.
James invented Win Shares for precisely this type of roster-sketch, and the brilliant Tom Tango improved WS with his WAR concept. In the article above, a local blog offers its interpretation of where WAR points the Mariners into 2010.
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Q. SSI doesn't participate in the local blog-mention moratorium?
A. In the world of chess, the etiquette states that if you parlay another... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/08/09
SSI Part I
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Q. Okay, on to the consensus. Do you agree that the M's need to add "twentyish" wins this winter?
A. Notice first of all, the calculation is for the current roster -- less Branyan, Bedard, Beltre, Junior, Sweeney, and Jack Wilson -- to post +27 wins above replacement (RLP).
This is said to equate to 75 wins -- and then the statement is that 15-20 more than 75 are needed (on paper).
Here is my first full stop.
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Q. Because?
A. The minor point is that if +27 wins above replacement equal 75 wins, then 48-114 is replacement level.
Replacement level is hotly disputed. The... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/08/09
7 Comments
SSI Part I
SSI Part II
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Q. Where do you get ten wins for $25M? Just the ol' Plan A, as y'might say.
A. The first no-brainer is Russell Branyan. Necessary moves first, as Kramnik would say. Simplify. Write your rosters up with him in them.
He was 2.8 wins in 75% of a season. Having missed the last part of the season, let's guess he's not going to get more than about $6M.
$6M in salary for our good bud? That's a wild guess. He earned $12.5M in 116 games, but he's essentially Jack Cust with a bad back. Tough to see him getting $12M offers.
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Q. And?
A. The second decision... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/07/09
9 Comments
Below is a patented SSI Capt-o-Vision translation of an online interview posted at the Times. Should you, for some reason, prefer to read the inferior unaltered version, you can find it right here. Thanks GL.
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12:00 Jack Z.: I like fans (he does - Dr D). Let's get started...
12:00 [Comment From ScottG] With Johjima and Rob Johnson at catcher, what's the chances that Adam Moore gets any significant playing time next year?
12:02 Jack Z.: We want to make this club better. To that end, we let the guys compete.
...
12:03 [Comment From LA Mariner Fan] Mr.Z what is you'... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/07/09
12:34 [Comment] Did you know Guti was going to be a Hall of Famer, were you laughing all the way to the bank on trade night, or was the whole situation just a byproduct of your overall awesomeness?
12:37 Jack Z.: We knew he was a great glove and would chip in with the bat. He was maybe a little better with the bat than we thought.
It sure was a pleasure watching him play. At the end of the day, what our team determined was that Guti was real good on defense, and not bad on offense. Our fans are just a genuine pleasure. :basks:
...
... 12:38 [Comment From Justin] With his bad back,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/07/09
7 Comments
Let's bear in mind, as we're guessing the market for Jack Wilson this winter, that the Pirates (of all people) gave Jack Wilson 15% of their payroll to OPS+ 77 for them.
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We fancy that modern sabermetrics has a point of difference here, against most current GM's. Hey, we put a high value on a plus-glove CF, SS, 2B or C, especially if he looks like he'll chip in with the bat.
The truth is, baseball has valued up-the-middle gloves, with decent bats, for 100 years. But the recent perception of defense as overlooked just proves the old rule, "If something's out of style long... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/07/09
11 Comments
GL, and the rest of the analysts in the Wilson thread, are nails as usual:
None of the teams that did deals with Z felt like they were being fleeced at the time - they were getting what they wanted out of the deal.
But you're right that a solid MLB ready shortstop will be more costly and harder to come by than an MLB ready outfielder. That's why Z did the Jack Wilson deal in the first place.
Guti, Aardsma, Branyan, they weren't really secrets. Nobody expected Aardsma to gel like he did. Most GM's knew that Guti was a defensive whiz trapped behind Sizemore, and based on his age you would... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/06/09
5 Comments
=== Twins Comeback ===
On July 14, the Mariners were -4.0 games behind and debate was on as to whether the season was worth pursuing. With the M's down variously 4-to-6 games through the middle of July, playing for the future was called in one place "the easiest decision Zduriencik has had to make all year."
Much to Dr. D's surprise, the consensus ran to the idea that it is either (1) impossible, or (2) unrealistic to attempt to win the pennant from 4 games behind with two months to play.
On July 24, they began a 4-game losing streak that took them to -7.5 games back, and would hold this... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/05/09
6 Comments
Moshing off of several Geoff Baker inside tidbits:
Armstrong says this was why Wakamatsu felt strongly about bringing in Mike Sweeney, to help "instill pride in the organization and change the culture back to what it had been."
Interesting, and encouraging, to hear that it was Wakamatsu personally who brought in Sweeney. And for the purpose of helping get rid of the me-me-me attitude that had set in under the Entitled Vet era.
Zduriencik, on Sunday's Fox All Access show, again and again emphasized that one of his two biggest job was simply "changing the attitude here."
And it's one thing... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/05/09
18 Comments
FLIP: Me? I'm hoping that Griffey gives a nod to the organization that he'd like to come back in a non-playing capacity. Make him a hitting coach...
CHOP: Precious few inner-circle HOF'ers will condescend to make the kind of money that ML coaches make ... and in addition, Griffey has to talk his wifey into being gone for one more year in the sun... a much easier sell if it is from the standpoint of finishing a glorious career at 650 homers...
That said, John Wetteland's heroic cameo in the bullpen has paved the way for this one.
IFF Ken Griffey Jr. feels like he's disappointing himself... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/05/09
9 Comments
FLIP: The top two specs in the org are a 1B and a 3B. If you transition Branyan to DH, and actually give him some days off to avoid fatigue injuries, then you get your top two specs learning during the season you EXPECT will be the transition to true contender. You use the Beltre savings to try and get Felix signed long-term, WHILE STILL ENTHUSED ABOUT 2009.
CHOP: Again 3rd-order thinking on Felix :- ) and Sandy's saying, hey, don't worry if Tui and Carp don't come through in 2010. It's the cost of building a contender anyway.
If you're high on Carp that is reasonable -- so is... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/04/09
4 Comments
=== Disclaimer ===
We wrote an article introducing yer to Bill James' fabuloso Magic 8 Ball that sees into the heads of sportswriters. We're not saying that we agree with what sportswriters tend to value, necessarily.
But then again, neither do we necessarily scoff at it. I think that the collective wisdom of the media guys is more than we give it credit for. That's not to say the collective media wisdom is Gillick-ian. But there's some interesting philosophy in the press room. ;- )
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=== Felix Hernandez ===
As we wrote earlier, sportswriters have valued few losses and they have... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/04/09
6 Comments
=== CC Sabathia and Mariano Rivera ===
Their arguments are that they pitched under the bright, hot lights, and led the Yankees where they were supposed to lead them.
Remember when Sabathia got rocked his first start? An awful lot of men have been run out of New York, haven't they.
It's one thing to have the lowest scoring average on the PGA, and a different thing to win majors. The sport gears up for the majors. CC Sabathia was facing Red Sox and Rays and Tigers teams that loaded up on the scouting and the games were played like wars.
Greinke often played in Royals-A's type games in... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/04/09
6 Comments
==== $90M Salary For Him, Then? ===
Billy Martin improved his first five teams by an average of +20 games per season. Yeah, he did this five separate times!
His rookie year managing, the Twins went from 79 wins to 97.
His first year with the Tigers, they went from 79 wins to 91.
His first year with the Rangers, they went from 57 wins to 84.
His first year with the Yankees, they went from 83 wins to 97.
His first year with the A's, they went from 54 wins to 83.
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In other words, it wasn't a coincidence. Once could be chance; two could be a coincidence. The third time, it's up to... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/04/09
7 Comments
=== Griffey's Return in 2010 ===
For those who just joined us: D-O-V is not recommending (or arguing against) the 2010 incarnation of Mr. Griffey. But since cyber-Seattle takes it as a foregone conclusion that he's not (or should not) be coming back, well, we have new-blown contrarian snow for Dr. D to work... :- )
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Watching the postgame Sunday, I realized that I had radically under-estimated Griffey's and Sweeney's effect on the 2009 ballclub.
I thought that Griffey had been one among 3-4, maybe 5, key elements in turning a poisonous, backbiting, dysfunctional,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/03/09
7 Comments
In 2002, Bill James released a simple formula that, up to 2002, had predicted 46-of-51 Cy Young winners correctly.
This excludes 1969 to 1984, when sportswriters were confused about what to do with the new relief aces, but even including those years James was still 81% accurate overall.
His system also calls surprises correctly, and frequently nails the top 3 dead-on, even when not very predictable. For example, in 1990 the top 3 vote-getters were Drabek, Ramon Martinez, and Frank Viola; James' formula called those three exactly.
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His system is:
W x 6
Minus L x 2
+ K / 12... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/02/09
8 Comments
=== Mike Carp ===
Reminds me of Bruce Bochte, a player whose jersey I used to have:
1) Left hand, line-drive swing
2) Excellent poise in the box
3) Very "alert," busy, quick hands
4) Takes a long look at the pitch
5) Good eye and HIT ability ... 60/60 type EYE, not 90/140 type
6) Questionable power for a 1B despite good size
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My one quibble about Carp is that he doesn't seem to have 1B power. It doesn't look particularly projectable to me, either. I mean, he gets his pitch, he squares it up, he follows through ... and then it's a medium single or maybe a 340-footer into a gap... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/02/09
20 Comments
We hear the Phillies are going to the playoffs, and that Raauuuuuul had something to do with it. Good on yer, Ibby.
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Besides Rauuuul's .275/.350/.550 hitting line, Fangraphs has Raul as adding +6.4 runs (almost one win) to the pot with that very fine left fielder's glove of his.
Indeed, UZR/150 had Raul as being a PLUS-PLUS defender in left field -- one of baseball's very best defenders. (See below.)
UZR/150 had Raul as earning +7.3 runs per 150 games, +6.4 runs in the games he actually did play, and approximately $4M profit in salary terms. Fangraphs therefore pegged him... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/02/09
5 Comments
=== Ichiro ===
Niehaus said that Ichiro has become the only man ever to have 220+ hits in 5 different seasons.
Huh. Cobb never did that? Pete Rose? Wow.
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I see no signs at all that Ichiro is even outside his peak, much less slowing down, do you? HOF leadoff hitters like Rickey, Lofton, and Rose frequently played to 40 and beyond.
Ichiro has stated that he wants to play till he's 50 "and then pitch." The conditioning is of course exemplary. I'll be surprised if he doesn't get 3,000 hits in the majors -- he's 35 and needs almost 1,000 more.
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As you know,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/02/09
=== Half Time Dept. ===
If you were to take Snell's first three innings, and triple them, and express them as a pitching line, you'd get this:
9ip 15h 9r 9er 9bb 3k
If you were to take Snell's last three innings, and triple them, and express them as a pitching line, you'd get this:
9ip 12h 0r 0er 0bb 6k
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Snell's first two pitches of the game, he:
1) landed on his heel, with
2) his toe angled into the Rangers' dugout,
3) straightened his knee early ... and then
4) hyperextended it jarringly as his weight traveled over his front foot.
During the rest of... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/02/09
=== #71 ===
I/O: Not suiting up or even close to practicing. Rumblings grow that Jones won't play at all in 2009. The locals, with some reason, accuse the Seahawks of putting on a show in even keeping Walter on the roster as long as they have.
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CRUNCH: Kevin Calabro, along with Geoff Baker, ex-media local John Clayton, and a few others, are the Seattle models of what a media interface should be. We trust and respect Calabro's judgment as well as his information.
It was interesting hearing Calabro's alarm at Jones' injury. KC relays that the biggest NBA player he ever saw undergo the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/02/09
=== Line on the Game ===
The Seahawks are 4:1, 5:1 underdogs on Sunday.
These are the longest odds of the weekend, the Seahawks being on the road without Hasselbeck against a superior team.
But it's also a reminder that it's not like the chances are 2% or 5%. The odds aren't 20:1. The better team does not always win.
There are many games with odds almost as long. Detroit at Chicago, the Chiefs home against Eli Manning, the Rams at San Francisco are comparable.
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I know that it's popular to believe, "Hey, the Colts are only 9:2 favorites because the casinos want to split... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/02/09
6 Comments
M's Watcher, along with the announcer who called Kirk Gibson's home run, can't believe what he just saw:
It's hard to believe the M's managed to carry two DH-only players the whole year. That maybe says more about what we got out of a solid Branyan at 1B, the smoke-and-mirrors out of LF, and paper thin utility coverage.
I'm still not sure how or why we did it in 2009, but can't imagine it again for 2010. Any thoughts on that?
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Like you sez Watcher:
1. It's hard to imagine two DH's, neither of which can play full time, and
2. We just imagined it.
In technicolor. For 162 games... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/01/09
12 Comments
I/O: Geoff Baker takes Sweeney's return a lot more seriously than we have.
Charming, the recognition that the coaches-on-the-field are getting as we wind down.
Sweeney is, quote, "praying" that he might return ... and our man Geoff calls the return a no-brainer. Huh!
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CRUNCH: For reasons we've detailed here in the past, you can't rule out the possibility that Sweeney is still a very good hitter. For all we know, Sweeney might very well still be a .300/.380/.500 hitter in part-time play.
I would assume that the decision on Griffeys and Sweeneys would be to bring back either 0 of... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/01/09
2 Comments
Q. So the A's are pretty easy to beat, eh? Three games, three Mariner starters cruise.
A. Well, I wouldn't overstate the A's problems. The A's have scored more runs than they have allowed in the 2009 season; their Pythag is 80-79.
Their offense has a 97 OPS+ on the year. They've had a much better year at the plate than the Mariners have.
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Q. Yeah, but this month they're playing their PCL'ers, though.
A. In September, the A's are hitting .297/.365/.455 for a 122 OPS+.
Before they faced the M's, they scored 22 on the Angels in three games and before that, they'd scored 8+ runs in 5-... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/01/09
19 Comments
Q. So 7 full, five hits, 1 walk, 1 run for Doogie. How'd he do it?
A. Pitched the same game he has most the year, and added mistake avoidance.
I only saw a couple of pitches that could feasibly be hit for homers at all -- compared to 10 in the usual ML game -- and a Mariner outfielder only ran back on a ball one time.
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Shandler uses the PQS paradigm that says a pitcher has five major skills -- STA, CTL, DOM, CMD, and Mistake Avoidance. From where I sit, Doogie has the whole game in place, needing only to sharpen his "mistake avoidance."
That's the same thing as saying... Read More