November 2009
Posted by jemanji on 11/30/09
25 Comments
Much rejoicing in the M's blog-o-sphere about Capt Jack nixing a (reportedly) firm offer of Edwin Jackson for Brandon Morrow and a young middle reliever.
Nobody seems very clear as to what that says about Brandon Morrow. Let's clear it up.
It resolves the debate about whether Brandon Morrow is a marquee talent, because Morrow and Jackson are apples-to-apples. In fact, they're Red Delicious apples to Red Delicious apples.
2-year rental or not, Edwin Jackson offers a huge net performance profit for 2010 and 11. Zduriencik didn't want it. The comp is so clean that there is no escaping... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/30/09
... coming and going, er, Checking In Checking Out, being a category that Bill James has run when surveying decades in baseball.
.
=== Mega Mariner ===
As far as I can tell, this brand spankin' new site has been up for less than a month.
I like the "Around Baseball" style post in which Mega M's briefs yer on the news of the day and then tags out with its own reaction. I think this kind of post is underdone ... after all, it's the bread-and-butter device used by sites like MLBtraderumors.com to kick their sites up to Borg-level domination.
String eight or ten news bites with a quick-shot... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/30/09
8 Comments
If I had my way, Matt Tuiasosopo would play 3B in 2010 and the dollars would go to Lackey and offense.
Moving on: suppose the Mariners do reel in Marco Scutaro, and Tui becomes a super-sub 4th infielder, getting 250 AB's and consolidating his talent for a year or two? What then?
Fangraphs -- actually, Dave Allen -- has a couple of outstanding articles up, demonstrating the insightful projection on Marco Scutaro is for him to hit better, rather than worse.
You'll have to open two more tabs in your browser: Allen's July article on Luis Castillo, and his November article on Marco Scutaro... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/30/09
2 Comments
A very fine Fangraphs article here that argues, strictly in terms of ROI dollars gained and lost, that the Mariners would be a little better off to offer Beltre arbitration than not.
=== Exec Sum ===
The argument reads:
1. If Beltre accepts arbitration, he'd get $10-13m, but might be worth only $8-12m on the field. That's a net profit value loss of "something like $4 million." In other words, you figure on overpaying him by about $4m if he accepts arbitration.
2. But, if he declined it, you'd get a supplemental pick -- worth a little more than $2m, per the argument.
3. So you can view... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/30/09
9 Comments
=== John Benson Dept. ===
Benson, a CPA, started running the $4.5m / WAR type calculations in the 1980's, but he always emphasized a key principle: "don't estimate inflation. Calculate it."
What he meant is, if your specific keeper-roto league had 100 wins in the winter FA pool and $1 billion* to spend, then FA wins that year were not worth $4.5m. That year, each win was worth $10m.
The Mariners, with Lackey and Scutaro and Bay and Crawford and a ton of guys available, have to be more specific than to figure a WAR as being worth $4.5m. If Lackey is $15m and they project 4.5 WAR, wins... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/30/09
21 Comments
Really, I think Sandy has the best low risk approach to building a team. Find out which prospects shake out in the wash and only after that process fill the confirmed holes with veterans. If you do it in reverse you might find you've blocked or traded the wrong prospect.
Lower risk it is indeed, in the sense of avoiding extremely visible blunders...
The question is whether the problem is simple enough, to allow us to use one principle to the exclusion of the other ones.
.
=== Ceteris Peribus ===
Of course I agree - from a Game Theory standpoint, you'd much rather fill in the 4-of-a-kind... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/30/09
Super-poster Spec sez,
Churchill, who is plugged in and worthy of considerable weight, keeps saying, essentially, "no way they start the year with Moore, Tui and Saunders all as starters" (and, of course, that would also entail Carp).
Also, he says Ackely is more than a year away and 2b Ackley is a full year-and-a-half away, at least.
Philosophically, can you make a run for the pennant with that many virtual rookies? or is that just old-school scouts spouting convential wisdom?
FWIW, I don't see it happening, either. But is it just plain a bad idea?
............
Jason's site is of... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/30/09
8 Comments
=== Rookie Aversion Dept. ===
Spec's implied question is, "Yeah, but are GM's comfortable with the fact that their weak spots are manned by rookies?"
Most aren't. A few are. Billy Beane has so much confidence in his own talent judgment that he doesn't care whether a player is a rookie or not. Talent goes into the lineup, and if it doesn't pan out, well, his roster is fluid anyway.
Theo Epstein has plenty enough confidence in his own talent judgment to commit to rookies, but of course the Sox have such a high payroll that he's not called on to use it.
Most lineups that have 4x holes in... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/28/09
7 Comments
Q. How much of a deterrent is it, losing your 1st-rounder to sign a Type A free agent?
A. I dunno. Supposing you could trade Josh Fields or Greg Halman or Dennis Raben for an MLB player who would start for you, and who was paid market rate?
Would that kill your holiday season?
.
Q. Is that all a 1st-rounder is worth?
A. We're not talking about Dustin Ackley or Stephen Strasburg here. We're talking about a #18 overall. Such a player might, or might not, make the Org Top Ten.
Here's our February article on Josh Fields and the worth of a #20 overall.
The M's have what, the #18 overall,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/28/09
7 Comments
Q. What a letdown -- Marco Scutaro at third base?
A. Here are Scooter's runs created per 27 outs the last four years, followed by Adrian Beltre's:
2009 - 5.8
2008 - 4.5
2007 - 3.8
2006 - 4.6
2005 - 4.2
LIFE - 4.5
Established performance 2007-09 -- 270/360/380
.........
Beltre:
2009 - 3.6
2008 - 5.2
2007 - 5.1
2006 - 5.2
2005 - 4.2
LIFE - 5.1
Established performance 2006-08, before crash -- 270/325/470
.........
Assume that Scutaro hits .270 with 80 walks -- that's what the GM's are assuming -- and he'll give you 80-100% of Good Beltre's offense. Except red-shifted to OBP rather than SLG... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/28/09
Q. Was the Scutaro rumor okay by SSI?
A. But of course, m'sieur.
I think Geoffy is being held to quite a double standard in the blog-o-sphere. :- )
If Prospect Insider, or USSM, or somebody, had alerted their readers "What I'm hearing is that he Mariners are one of four teams talking most seriously to Marco Scutaro's agent,"
.... and that "The M's are most interested in him for third base," .... then their comments would have been filled to brimming with attaboy!'s.
If any of the blogs had followed up a few hours later with, "Hey, the source in Venezuela had a couple of facts mixed up... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/26/09
6 Comments
Not that Edwin Jackson is the #1 target of the offseason ... but it is an interesting question whether the Bora$ factor rules Jackson out as a Mariners option.
As Sir Anthony would say, this is Mission Impossible. Difficult should be a walk in the park. ::winning smile:: ... is a Jackson contract extension (and therefore Tigers-Mariners deal) "difficult" or is it "impossible"?
Cool Papa with pointed commentary that deserves its own thread, especially because I'd like to see somebody chime in with data:
=====
CPB: There is absolutely no way that Boras will even consider a contract... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/26/09
Part I
.
Cool Papa continues with interesting remarks on Boras' intentions ...
One thing to keep in mind is that Boras is probably not motivated simply by a desire to make the most money for himself. He seems to genuinely hate the teams and be driven to make signing his clients a truly painful experience.
Hm.
Gauging Boras' intentions is a legitimate, and required, part of Zduriencik's job description. This isn't (necessarily) "gossip" or personal attack by CPB. A negotiator has to know where his counterpart's head is at.
.
PRO: I agree that, in many cases, the ROI just doesn't make... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/25/09
2 Comments
Q. Do you buy into the rumors?
A. You know as much as anybody else does:
1. Zduriencik is attached to all of the biggest names available in the trade market. He'd love to cash in Bavasi's prospects for impact veterans of his own choosing.
2. The Padres are a losing team, in a small market, where the economy is lousy, and have been attached to Gonzalez rumors for a while.
3. It's going to take a lot to reel in a player like Gonzalez. MUCH more than it would to reel in Edwin Jackson or Curtis Granderson.
............
I'm sure that right now, the M's are working lots of different... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/25/09
Q. What's that Stars & Scrubs thing again.
A. Stars & Scrubs puts your $$$$ into the top of the roster and leaves the bottom of the roster fluid.
Honda Civics lock MLB(TM) production in, up-and-down the roster.
With Stars & Scrubs, the bottom half of your roster has fungible but talented players who will either (a) fail, and be swapped out -- creating competition -- or (b) succeed, and overperform their contracts.
Stars & Scrubs chooses the John Lackey and Ryan Rowland-Smith/FIELD pairing; Honda Civics chooses two Jarrod Washburns.
Stars & Scrubs puts pressure on your... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/23/09
14 Comments
Larry Stone with a column out, this one on the MVP vote.
It was Bill James who pointed out that when a Hall of Fame vote is taken on a top-echelon player, such as Roger Clemens, the discussion afterwards will consist of arguing about why he wasn't unanimous. Or first-ballot. Or whatever.
He pointed out acidly, so we've reached the point at which the Hall of Fame can no longer honor a great player. It can only insult him.
.................
Par is a good score in golf, they say. Being voted into the Hall of Fame is a good score. Getting an MVP award is a good score. It doesn't really... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/23/09
1 Comments
Q: Are RE24 and REW important? If so, how important?
A. Dr. Naka points out that the Mariners almost look to be using RE24 and REW as key factors in their roster decisions -- if not overtly, than intuitively.
If you're not familiar with RE24, Dr. Naka explains it for us.
............
I hadn't noticed that RE24 and REW were being published now.
And it had never really occurred to me that if you take the "fun" stat WPA, and edit out the inning-and-score weighting ... that you'd have something that had more-generally-useful information.
I look at WPA mostly for info-tainment, but hey now... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/23/09
8 Comments
Dr. D was a middle infielder himself, a lousy one compared to Dustin Ackley or even TopCat, but I know what the ball looks like out there. And what great middle infielders look like.
The fundamental act of fielding a hot-shot one-hopper off a MOTO hitter's bat is the critical skill here. The rest is conversation.
You simply wouldn't believe what that ball looks like, hit by an exceptionally strong man, as it whistles by (or at) you. Not many people have the simple reflexes to play major league infield. (I've never seen an ballplayer with quicker hands than Adrian Beltre; he plays in,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/22/09
Q. The debates are heating up these days!
A. I loooov eet.
The fact that you're seeing various blogs show their teeth :- ) really just means that people are getting into the game, driving the paint, throwing some elbows.
Nice to have a winter that really matters. And y'better b'lee dat this one does.
Jackson is a hot topic, naturally, and if Zduriencik's org values dynamic exchange, so can we.
We're crackin' peanuts in the bleachers and maybe talking a little smack. Don't go all Team Jacob and wolf out on me. :- )
.
Q. Did SSI ignore Edwin Jackson's pre-2009 "track record" and... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/22/09
7 Comments
Part I
.
=== Roto, Accountability, and Predictive Validity ===
There aren't any charts keeping track of bloggers' predictions on which pitcher will jell. Nobody goes back and says, "How many Lincecums did this guy have and how many Schmidts did that guy have?"
We're not in the realm of the sabermetric when we predict Edwin Jackson's future. Nobody's bringing a convincing set of comps, running a regression, and saying, "here's Jackson's chance to sustain his progress."
If Brandon Morrow goes out in 2010 and rips off 25 straight quality starts to open the year, running a 2+ ERA into... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/22/09
9 Comments
Part II
.
=== Capt Jack Dept. ===
If you don't like Mikey Jay or Cool Papa or Mat Olkin :- ) that's cool. I feel ya.
Ask Jack Zduriencik, then. If you're going to be "ignoring anyone" who doesn't agree with you, that "Jackson isn't very good," I take it that a Jackson trade will leave us ignoring Zduriencik's own take on the pitcher?
How do you good buddies reconcile your beliefs that (1) Jackson isn't very good, (2) Jack Zduriencik is awesome, and (3) Zduriencik thinks Jackson is very good?
.
=== Caveat Emptor Dept. ===
Now, I'm not saying Edwin Jackson is the bee's knees. :shrug: he's... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/20/09
The idea of Ryan Doumit is gaining traction. Lonnie, the big cheese at Mariner Central, started the idea on Nov. 12th.
Dr. D egged him on :- ) because, whatever Doumit's other plusses and negatives might be, the fact that he's a legitimate* major league catcher is the overriding consideration.
Both Moore and Johnson are shaky, and even if you add an ML journeyman to shuttle between Tacoma and Seattle, it would still be wonderful to have a 3rd catcher in your active 25.
.
Q. Oh yeah! This guy was the cleanup hitter for the Yankees, right?
A. His 8x10 alone is enough for me. Sign 'im... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/20/09
6 Comments
Probably old news to you guys, but I hadn't seen this from last week: Ackley Named Decade's Top Hitter
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. - Dustin Ackley, the first three-time All-America in North Carolina history ... added another bullet point to his collegiate resume this week when Rivals.com named him the best collegiate hitter of the 2000s.
Kendall Rogers, the college baseball editor for Yahoo! Sports and Rivals.com, had the following to say about Ackley and his decorated career in Chapel Hill:
"There wasn't a more exciting hitter to watch this decade.
"Each time Ackley headed to the plate everyone... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/20/09
2 Comments
Q. What's the upside?
A. In terms of game theory, it's called "agility." Agility is a Golden Principle. Every master, of every game, wants to multiply his attacking options.
As mentioned before, if this were Strat-O-Matic, then moving Ackley from LF to 2B is positively a no-brainer. The simple math of it, if defense isn't finely measured, leaves no debate at all.
In Yahtzee, if you roll three 6's and two 5's first turn, you don't put "18" in the sixes. You put the 35* in the Full House column. There is no debate about this. It's the Golden Principle of flexibility. Centralize your... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/20/09
24 Comments
Thanks to Geoff Baker for linking us to Bill James' system for predicting "UP" ballplayer seasons.
I'll use this system heavily in roto. I expect it to be my biggest "secret weapon" since the days when Ron Shandler used to be secret.
.
Q. Why a new UP/DWN system, considering that PECOTA already issues the 75%, 50%, 25%, etc. probabilities?
A. An Excel spreadsheet will calculate the math perfectly, of course ... AFTER a human programmer has told it what he thinks defines a "comparable player."
Underlying PECOTA's calculations are the arbitrary opinions of a Baseball Prospectus'... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/20/09
Q. How about Branyan, who is 4th from the bottom of James' entire list?
A. James' system doesn't know as much about Branyan as you do; don't be afraid to use intuition to override a simple automated result.
James' system tells us this, no more and no less. If you take all the players in history who:
At 32-35, and being slow players,
With bad EYE ratios, as Branyan's was (58/149),
Suddenly had RBI + R that were faarrrrr more than they ever had before,
With spikes in OPS+,
Then you've got a group of players who are among the least-likely to IMPROVE the next year, as you could find.
This... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/20/09
FLIP: Crawford is a fine player, but he's not worth some of the insane prices I've been hearing. No .332 OBP "lead-off" hitter is.
CHOP: If the essential point here is that Carl Crawford is not an 8.0 RC/game franchise player, I agree with that.
. Crawford is Johnny Damon with a glove, and as much as I like Johnny Damon, he's the third or fourth Myrmidon onto the beach. He carries the spears for the Ortiz and Manny, or the Tex and ARod. I'm not taking Johnny Damon and making him the face of my franchise.
Crawford is a star table-setter. You get two bats behind him and Ichiro (say,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/20/09
2 Comments
Hot Stove chitchat this morning jells around the prospect of hauling in both Edwin Jackson and Carl Crawford in one euphoric offseason... there's some basis to the chat, seeing as Tampa is reportedly in on the Tigers rumor. Tampa has two players who are perfect fits for the Mariners, LF and 1B, and those are precisely the two highly-paid players that Tampa has to cash in, Beane-style.
We mentioned yesterday that Tampa fans, generally, see Carl Crawford as deserving an MVP-type trade return, and Carlos Pena being available for a bag of spike-doctored baseballs.
They see Pena as being,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/19/09
6 Comments
The rumors about Seattle-Detroit with Tampa Bay in the mix, have made Carl Crawford an interesting topic of discussion this week.
Carl Crawford is one of my fave players. He, to me, is the way you play that kind of game (the hit-for-the-cycle game).
................
Crawford is one of my favorite players, and if he joined the Mariners, it would become a serious question whether the 2010 M's had the #1 most-effective defensive outfield of all time.
Fangraphs has Crawford as a -15 to -20 run left fielder, a figure that I can believe (for once) in view of Crawford's stunning SX's -- 155 to... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/19/09
=== All-Star vs HOF'er Dept. ===
Seen on the internet... "Ichiro can't hold Crawford's jock"
On the off chance that this wasn't trolling, I'll bite :- )
Click on these two links side-by-side, with hitting stats expanded ("advanced batting")... Carl Crawford ... Ichiro. Review the RC/27 and R columns for both players.
Ichiro is a career 6.6 runs per 27 outs player, with a 7.4 total in 2009 that was undoubtedly caused by the fact that he became interested in winning again.
Crawford is a career 5.5 runs per 27 outs player, with a 6.3 mark last year that proved his highwater mark so far.... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 11/19/09
5 Comments
I think . . . maybe Josh Fields is becoming the story of the fall. He has now run off seven consecutive one-inning appearances with 0 ER and a total of 1 hit. And he has 6 K in those 7 IP. Obviously, he's doing something right.
I think . . . it is interesting that Stephen Strasburg has 23 K in 19.0 IP in the AFL (10.89 K/9), but Phillippe Aumont (despite stuggling a lot) has 17 K in 11.0 IP (for 13.9 K/9), and someone named Michael Dunn (24-yr-old Yankees 33rd round pick) has 19 K in 9.1 IP (18.3 K/9). Dunn even got 4 in one inning (it happens).
I think . . . it is odd that Mauricio... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/17/09
10 Comments
Q. Surely the Tigers aren't serious about dealing Granderson.
He's one of the best players in the game, right?, worth $15-20M per season but getting paid only 4 x $9M.
A. I think they are serious. And as with J.J. Hardy, I think people may be surprised at the disconnect between what MLB teams think Granderson's worth, and what sabermetricians think he's worth.
As far as the assertion that Granderson couldn't be part of a salary dump if he has a value contract, no. We're definitely reading Fortune-500 execs wrong on that one.
We sabermetricians have a tendency to project our own logic... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/17/09
7 Comments
Q. Is Granderson one of the best players in the game? Is he worth $18M a year?
A. That's another POTD :- ) but do be aware that fangraphs.com docks Granderson -10.0 runs, hard on the barrelhead, the moment he steps from CF to LF.
That's $5M worth of value. Fangraphs had Granderson at $15M worth of performance last year; if he'd played LF* that would have been $10M worth. $10M worth of performance, for a veteran, is right around league average.
So you figure Granderson to repeat 2009, and be worth +25 runs or so in 2010, as a left fielder. Roto champ Cool Papa is looking for +40... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/17/09
6 Comments
Looking it over, he was pretty consistent at giving up 1.5 HR/9 from 1999-2006, mostly as a starter, while overall decent in 01-03 then pure mush in 04-05. Then he goes to STL and at age 34 and since his HR/9 is 0.9, 1.14 and 0.3. Obviously, that is in relief, but does that make a huge difference for a guy like Franklin who doesn't rely on stuff?
.........
I agree with Matty that you always have to be aware of the NL/AL delta, but wouldn't necessarily factor it much, in Ryan Franklin's case.
Ryan Franklin can pitch in the AL. Once he finished like #9 in the league in ERA over here. ... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/17/09
5 Comments
Q. ...I am pretty hard-core with the SABR-analysis. And as you should know...Ron Shandler is not. He's a numbers guy, but that doesn't make him a scientist when it comes to this sort of discussion (whether Yusmeiro Petit will have a career).
..........
Appreciate your having my back on Yusmeiro Petit :- ) and that only shows your emerging excellent judgment ;- ) ;- )
Let's not sell Mr. HQ short, though, on three counts. Anybody who wants to claim sensei position to Mr. Shandler's kohai-ness better deal with three things first..
"As I should know," HQ can run with the big dogs... b'... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/16/09
19 Comments
Q from Cool Papa Bell: How do you rate Petit? Is he good enough to be a #4 starter in the AL or is he just a warm body like French, Vargas and Olson?
A. Leaving aside the fact that CPB may be the guy in cyber-Seattle most capable of answering this question... :- ) ... he got a scouting-report reply and tersely replied back,
.
Q. I wanted your (Matt's) opinion of his stats because that is why he was picked up. His repetoire is considered weak with no upside so scouts don't like him but ... what's your saber take on him?
A. I'll bet that you'll like Ron Shandler's pre-2009 take on Petit:... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/16/09
7 Comments
Q. Is Petit one more Garret Olson type, a guy whose flashy minors stats won't translate?
A. Petit has shown some truly spectacular, Fister-like :- ) command in the minors, such as his 67/8 control ratio in AAA in 2008.
He's also had excellent CTL in the majors, 6.9 / 2.9 lifetime, despite being so early in his career. As we all know, this has come at the expense of his HR rate -- 2.0 per 9 innings, when 1.1 is average and 1.4 is gopheritis.
As you know, a lot of these Garret Olson, Ryan Franklin, Yusmeiro Petit types have terrific CTL's because they have 3-4 legit pitches and they throw... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/16/09
7 Comments
=== Snelling vs NJ ===
Q. The Nick Johnson question is very close to the Chris Snelling question: How much do you bet on a guy who is always injured? There's a difference, though. Snelling has a career .302/.392/.456/.849 minor league line. Johnson has a career .273/.402/.449/.849 MAJOR league line. No matter what happens to Nick, if he's in the lineup he's not gonna Carl Everett you a season.
.
A. I agree. We're not saying that Nick Johnson isn't a major league starter. He is.
If Nick Johnson had ONLY one problem OR the other -- if he were a .405 slugger who played 155 games... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/16/09
5 Comments
=== Non-SABR Society Dept. ===
"Statistics are by their very nature backwards-looking" - the Founding Father
..........
Analyze Jackson's historical Sw% trends to a fare-thee-well?, and they're still not going to tell you how well Jackson is going to deploy his smoking fastball and crackling slider in 2010, much less in 2013.
Pitchers go through plateaus, and then leap (or not) to the next one. Trying to use SABR to forecast young super-talents like Jackson and Morrow is a fool's errand. SABR will tell you two things about them: (1) they have huge potential. (2) We don't know when, or... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/16/09
7 Comments
=== Case Studies Dept. ===
Who or what is Edwin Jackson, and what do you expect from him? Who and what he is, that isn't hard to grasp.
Picture Brandon Morrow having his absolutely dream season in 2010, making the All-Star team, etc., then wearing down a bit in August and being good-but-not great.
That was Edwin Jackson exactly.
He's Brandon Morrow, if and after Morrow had his ultimate breakthrough. It's a little shop o' horrors for AL batters - give Jackson a taste and before you know it, the guys look like plant food to him...
=== Dr's Prognosis Dept. ===
Edwin Jackson is not a... Read More
Posted by SABR Matt on 11/15/09
14 Comments
If I saw laser beams shooting through this dude's glasses and melting Scott Boras into a sizzling puddle of plasma, I wouldn't be shocked.
This guy plays HARDBALL...even with the fan favorites like Russell the Muscle (see my comments on the Mariners' alleged pursuit of Lyle Overbay). The Ms may still give Branyan his money, since he's not asking for fair market value for his potential level of production (in this environment, he can't, especially with his back injuries), but he's having a hard time getting Z to give him even half what he probably should get. As I opined elsewhere, the... Read More
Posted by SABR Matt on 11/15/09
5 Comments
I'm going to post a two-part comparison between the Mariners' payroll and talent structure situation and the Angels' situation to give you an idea why I think the Angels' time in the sun is about to be over with a loud thud, at least for a little while.
Let's take a look at the Angels' roster and payroll obligations for the 2010 and 2011 seasons to show you how Reagins has built his club. All salary info courtesy of the wonderful blog Cot's Baseball Contracts. On the left, the salary owed in 2010, on the right, the salary owed in 2011...arbitrartion estimates go by the MLB averages for... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/15/09
3 Comments
=== O-Dawg ===
I/O: Jason Churchill hears, or opines, that Orlando Hudson would prefer to stay in the National League.
Crunch: If I were him, I would too. Hudson is just the type of player who can easily drop off quickly after the age of 30. He's been out of the AL since 2005. I don't care for his chances to play well in Safeco Field. Maybe one year's worth.
I/O: Larry Stone points out that Hudson would cost the M's #18 overall to sign Hudson.
Crunch: Hudson was an interesting suggestion as a lateral move vs. Jose Lopez -- Hudson being roughly a push for Lopez in the very short-... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/15/09
3 Comments
The Advanced NFL Stats Counter had the Seahawks' chances to win at around 90% for most of the second quarter. The Seahawks' actual chances to win peaked at maybe 55% when they were up 14-0. Seahawks fans knew this. With a 17-10 halftime lead, the Hawks were underdogs with a fighting chance to upset.
This is what we keep sermonizing about, that as well-intentioned as our formulas might be, they have a dickens of a time capturing all of the variables that human intuition does.
..........
OK, if you have 1,000 NFL games that are at 14-0 with 5:00 left in the 2nd quarter ... 900 of them are... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/15/09
9 Comments
Jason at Prospect Insider suggests that the M's may be Hideki Matsui's second-most-likely landing spot if he does not return to New York.
Putting aside the questions of PC Seattle's emphasis on character guys, and Godzilla's penchant for extreme 'misogynist' literature in the locker room, let's suppose that Capt Jack were interested ... hey, I'm not judging here. :- ) I'm just mentioning that it could be an issue for Howard and Chuck.
..................
Matsui is a legit #3-4 hitter -- a #6 hitter in a great lineup, or a #3-4 hitter in a weak one, like ours.
He's 280/370/500 like... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/15/09
5 Comments
=== So Was Edgar ===
1. I'd say that he's a DH, period, any more. So figure his value on that basis - competing with the Dunns, Thomes, etc.
He was never the poster boy for good defense, and we hear it's gotten ugly lately, PLUS you're talking about the DL agony starting to pile up on him, Junior-style.
When you hear $5-8M per year, that sounds sensational, but if you are paying for an Eric Davis-like 120 games at DH, well.... it's still intriguing, but maybe not as thrilling as it sounds.
.
=== HOF Monitor: 188 over 100 ===
2. I'm not sure I've ever seen a more gifted baseball hitter.... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/14/09
16 Comments
In roto:
Star - expensive player, guaranteed* huge production, paid fairly ($25 roto, $15M real life)
Civic - average player, likely average production, paid fairly ($12 roto, $8M real life)
Scrub - Cheap player you take a flier on, hopefully paid unfairly ($3 roto, 0.4-1.0 real life)
In roto, you've got the constant choice between two Jarrod Washburns or a Felix and a Morrow. That's the Civics-vs-Stars-and-Scrubs paradigm.
......
As far as I know, we originated this terminology on the STATS AOL board, and it spread across the internet to Shandler and then widespread... somebody can... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/13/09
7 Comments
Early reports were for 2 / $10M, along the lines of what G-Money and Shields expected.
Assuming that I was confident that Wilson could OPS+ 80 or so in Safeco, I'd be thrilled to pay Wilson $5M a year. Not just because of salary/fangraphs-value ratio, but because Wilson is a guy I think I can win a pennant with.
..............
One thing that Zduriencik and Whitey Herzog have in common, was that Whitey wanted his shortstop to be a team-captain type.
Would like to see this analyzed, to what extent a ballclub draws its competitiveness (or lack thereof) from its shortstop specifically. Herzog... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/13/09
1 Comments
Q from Cala-bro': I had Wakamatsu on. I asked him, hey, some great leather the guy showed, but had some adjustments with the bat.
Wakamatsu said, I can explain that. He's coming over from the NL; he hasn't seen the pitchers -- and he's coming over right when the AL pitchers are grooving in. They've got their command, they're on top of their games.
It's a tough time to make the transition. Even for a veteran like Jack Wilson, there's a learning curve.
Wilson: Yeah. It's like the minor leagues. You step up to the plate and you have no idea what the guy throws. You just do your... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/13/09
Replies are transcribed as accurately as memory allows :- ) ... the verbiage was different than below but the sense and tone is, I believe, directly on track.
.
Q: What does the Wilson extension mean to the Mariners? (heh - jjc)
Capt Jack: He will be our starting shortstop for the next two years.
Last year, he had all kinds of problems at the plate, but he was injured -- two hamstrings and a bad ankle. "The doctors are very pleased with where he's at."
He is a defensive specialist and a pesky hitter, will hit much better than he showed here. Per all of the various defensive metrics... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/13/09
Part I
.
Q from Dreyer: What does this mean to Carlos Triufnel (if he was in line to play SS - jjc) ?
Capt Jack: It doesn't really mean anything, Shannon. He is one of our elite prospects, but he's 19, just missed almost the entire season ... "it's going to be a couple years" before he's in the major leagues.
We're still figuring out whether Triunfel is a shortstop. He's playing there and at third base. We'll continue to evaluate whether that's his best position.
.
Dr's Diagnosis: The timeline is reasonable, of course, but note that it's not 100% in synch with what Pedro Grifol said... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 11/13/09
5 Comments
Signs of life from Prince Carlos
11/10 played 2b 1-for-4
11/11 played 3b 0-for-4
11/12 played SS 3-for-4
Seems to be shaking off the rust finally and playing all around the diamond.
Talented Mr. Ackley: well, OK, no ticket to Cooperstown in his first month as a pro
But it's not like he's a total disaster, either.
50 AB, 15 H, 4 2b, 0 HR, 7 BB, 14 K, 1 SB, 0 CS
.300/.386/.380/.766
I'm more convinced than Doc that the SLG will come, based on what he did in college, but it won't be instantaneous (also based on what he did in college).
_460008.jpg?itok=KeOVyLGW" />Varvaro is getting... Read More
Posted by anonymous (not verified) on 11/12/09
8 Comments
I guess the news is just coming out now about John Wetteland being hospitalized today with some sort of mental issue: depression presumably, but maybe something else. A couple months ago I talked here about him being different, but "zany" or "weird" isn't adequate to describe him. A longer sense of his character in his playing days that I did elsewhere talked about his troubles as a teen, stemming from his parents' divorce when he was 16. So he's been dealing with various personal troubles for what, about 30 years, if not longer. I feared there would be bad news about him today, because... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/12/09
12 Comments
Dan Duke, at Mariner Central, raises a question that is of the first order of magnitude:
Given that most of us aren't GMs, do you have a preferred way to find a "jumping off point" for a player's expected contribution? For example, the PECOTA weighted mean expectation? Or perhaps the weighted mean with a risk adjustment? How would you go about projecting a player for next year?
...............
I think if you're a GM, you have the responsibility to make your own projections. And, that is what GM's in fact do.
If a major-league General Manager ever used PECOTA's 50th-percentile projections... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/12/09
2 Comments
One of the anonymous posts, discussing Capt Jack's agility, clanged off the LF scoreboard. (grrrrr... sign 'em in the text area you pokeys. It's five letters.)
This is really the difference between a great executive and a guy that has been promoted one level beyond his competency. Bavasi always seemed to have one plan and one plan only. He went into each off season projecting what he wanted ("left handed sock; innings eating starter, et al) and seemed to have no flexibility at all.
Jack, on the other hand, seems to have contingency stacked upon contingency. I doubt that there is any malice... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/11/09
Q. Any caveats before we begin?
A. Yeah. If Zduriencik offered Branyan $14M for one year, none of the below applies. :- )
I'm going off the assumption that the yearly salary is somewhere in the $5-8M range. If that assumption's off, so is the below.
.
Q. What's the crunch on Branyan's statement "I just want what's fair"?
A. My personal read-between the lines on this situation is that:
1. Russ Branyan is, as pro athletes go, not a very greedy person;
2. Branyan is legitimately willing to throw the M's a great deal;
3. We TOLja that Jack Zduriencik is a rawhide-tough ol' sun-uf-... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/11/09
10 Comments
Dr. Naka noticed that Ichiro had more Win Probability Added than any other American League player.
.............
1. For those who just joined us -- and many readers aren't heavily into sabermetrics -- you get (say) 0.4 wins added to your total if you hit a home run with two men on in the 9th inning with the score tied. Your team's chances to win that game went from 50% to 90%*.
You can do this all year long ... Joe Shlabotnik struck out leading off the 5th in a 6-3 game, lowering his team's chances from 78% to 77%.
This obviously refines "clutch hitting" and "RISP" which only track a... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/11/09
5 Comments
We're going to be a little direct on this one. If that's not your cup of tea, skip to the next article with our blessings. :- )
.
Q. Is it the "correct" evaluation, that in 2010 some other bench player would give you 0.5 or 1.0 more Strat-O-Matic victories than Griffey will?
A. Of course that's not the "correct" evaluation.
Which player projections are you using? Use Shandler's and your WAR's and $ for each player will be one thing. Use PECOTA and the values all change. Use the Mariners' internal projections and the values all shift again.
......
All players have a range of... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/11/09
14 Comments
Part I
.
Q. Maybe Branyan won't play at all.
A. Then we wouldn't be hearing about Branyan getting one solid guaranteed year.
Looks to me like we're talking about trying to pay $6M for one season that will be worth either $9 or $15M, one of the two.
Like I say, that's great for M's fans. It sounds like Jack is going to save so much money at SS and 1B that he'll be able to go after Lackey and Bay together, or who knows what he's thinking.
.
Q. Do the M's owe Branyan anything?
A. I think so, yes.
Russell Branyan produced $12M worth of performance in 2009 for $2M, and Russell Branyan... Read More
Posted by anonymous (not verified) on 11/10/09
4 Comments
As I read various articles and associated comments from MC and SSI today, I felt like a bunch of light bulbs were suddenly turned on. The focus of the light bulbs was on the real philosophy behind Captain Jack's strategy. Instead of the traditional model of filling holes with either rookies or established veterans, Captain Jack will create a competition between the rookies and established veterans. No one will be guaranteed a job (exception: Ichiro), but rather each year players will need to earn their position/playing time. This will influence how players will be signed. Veterans will get... Read More
Posted by anonymous (not verified) on 11/10/09
8 Comments
I'm sure some of you have already seen Joe Posnanski's Hall of Fame Thoughts post, and his substantial praise for Edgar Martinez. Still, Posnanski expects Edgar to not get in: "He will not get voted in, and I suspect he will not come close to getting voted in. And I think he might be the best hitter (non-steroid/gambling division) to not make the Hall of Fame."
Posnanski brings up the fact of Edgar being one of few to achieve the .300/.400/.500 averages line, and ye olde obscure player in Seattle issue:
"Many people never realized or appreciated just how good a hitter Edgar Martinez was. He... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/10/09
13 Comments
It's amusing, by the way, that just a week ago I looked back on a 2006 Baseball America projection on Adam Jones. It called Jones "a potential Gold Glover in center field" and I pointedly called that the only mistake Baseball America made in their report. :- )
.
=== Moider Da Bums, Dept. ===
Was Gutierrez robbed, cheated, jobbed, etc? This is a philosophical question.
When you've got five great players and you pick three, most fans will say the other two got "ripped off." The 26th and 27th** players on the All-Star Team (I know, I know) are always "ripped off." If you had 35 players go... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/10/09
5 Comments
.
=== UZR: Move Him Out of CF ===
UZR/150 sees Adam Jones as a bad center fielder: -4.1 runs that he costs the Orioles, vs. a league-average center fielder, per 150 games.
Note well that it is only Jones' throwing arm that saves him from UZR status as a terrible center fielder -- one who should be moved out of CF (!).
Jones gets UZR credit for +7.3 runs saved with his arm, as against -11.4 UZR runs that he cost his team with lack of defensive range (in only 75% of a season).
In other words, Jones' range in 2009 wasn't much better than Junior's last few years in CF, per UZR.
.
=== RATE: ... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/10/09
5 Comments
.
Bo Knows Baseball -- SSI on G-Money's Bo-vs-Halman comp
............
Another great James quote about Bo: "He does do spectacular things very regularly. But baseball is fundamentally not about doing spectacular things."
...........
I was at the Dome when Bo caught a ball in the very LF corner and sailed it on the fly to home plate to nail a fast runner. The ball did not bounce. It had a low arc. It traveled at least one football field in distance. The shock when the catcher tagged the runner out -- comfortably -- was palpable, not least in the Royals' dugout. The feel in the stadium... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/10/09
5 Comments
.
G-Moneyball matches up the wild-and-wonderful M's prospect Halman with a blast from the past, that being Bo Jackson:
That's who Greg Halman is, Doc. If he can work it out, that could be fun to watch. It's a low percentage chance, IMO, but I can understand the drool factor of watching Bo Jackson attempting to make his way through your minor leagues.
You mean because of the cutback moves, or the alien-evolved physical attributes and retarded pitch recognition?
.
=== Bo Knows Swings & Misses ===
I see that Bo's K/BB's were 158/30, 146/25, 172/39 even as he posted excellent batting... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/09/09
Larry LaRue with a grrrrreat read on the M's MLB-ready talents, the guys who will go to camp with a chance to win a job next year. This is a really nice job by LaRue, one of the most interesting pieces I've read in a long time.
....
Name six guys that Pedro Grifol and Roger Hansen think can come to camp next year and win jobs in Safeco. I promise you that your six won't be the six that Grifol and Hansen name. In fact, I kinda shook my head, blinked, and wondered if I was listening to them wrong.
Don't think so. The fact that Grifol and Hansen push names that we're not used to, that's... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/09/09
8 Comments
Part I
.
BTW, it was interesting too, hearing Capt Jack say of Saunders, Moore and Tui, that “When you’re putting your team together in the offseason, you don’t count on them, you consider them potential big league players."
Which, if this attitude means an Adam Dunn hauled in this winter, that's okay with me :- ) but how literally could Capt Jack mean it? I'm not sure it's much of an option to not count on Adam Moore, is it?
....
Phillippe Aumont. Just saying his name is melancholy for me, a #8 overall pick blown on a setup reliever.
Still, Grifol points out that if Aumont came to... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/09/09
6 Comments
1. To bet on any particular golfer to win a tournament, even Tiger, is to bet a longshot against the Field.
We're at a point in the free agent derby that, you mention any one team, sure, obviously it's just chatter.
.........
2. I'm kind of surprised that many MC/DOV'ites didn't pick up on Olney's language, his choice of words.
Olney didn't write a Matthew Cerrone post -- hey, I like Cerrone -- in which jigsaw pieces are slid around the table and an educated suggestion is made matching this FA to that team. Olney said "rivals view" the Mariners as a potential sleeper team for Lackey. ... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/09/09
6 Comments
(1) Everybody will agree that a AA catcher -- okay, a high school catcher -- will run a lousy CERA compared to Johnny Bench (or Jorge Posada).
Pitch-calling skills, and results, go up-and-down the spectrum from Little League through Pony through High School through rookie ball through three levels of A ball, through the high minors... take 1,000 catchers and line them up.
We all believe that. We're starting with a given, here.
Different catchers know different things about hitters' strengths and weaknesses. Some guys know you have to pitch Paul Konerko in. Some don't. Some catchers... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/09/09
2 Comments
Lookout Landing with their usual rock-solid job of thinking through the question of Johjima vs Johnson. This of course goes to the issue of M's pitching in 2010.
Johjima-san, who is one of my favorite players, consistently ran CERA's 1.00 to 2.00 runs worse than other Mariners catchers during his career here. I believe that this was 80% - 90% the fault of everybody except Johjima, and yes, I know exactly how weird it is to say that.
Should M's fans expect runs-off-the-scoreboard, for the enemy, because Johjima left? If not -- is it reasonable for M's fans to hope for fewer runs allowed... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/09/09
2 Comments
Part I
.
=== Hiro Nakamura Dept. ===
Picking up our timeline at a tangent now -- LL time-warps us back to a friendly CERA exchange between Keith Woolner and Bill James which, echoes James' earlier refutation of Baseball Prospectus' PAP.
James wouldn't put it that way. I would, though.
In that earlier debate, James refuted PAP by demonstrating that pitchers with the highest PAP turned out to be more reliable than average ...
BP then smilingly patted James on the head for still being able to contribute in minor ways, at his age. They went on publishing PAP as definitive for a few years,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/09/09
23 Comments
Part I
Part II
CERA Thought Experiment
So there's a 'Point of Contention' regarding Rob Johnson's defense, whether his CERA is plus, and even whether a plus CERA is something that can happen in major-league baseball.
Notice Jeff's inversion of the debate in his article at LL:
What's funny is that, if we're just scrounging for as much evidence as we can find, there's a lot more evidence that Kenji was bad than there is that Johnson is good. Kenji was here for four years. In three of those years, his numbers were a lot worse than those of his backup(s), and in the fourth they were about equal... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/06/09
8 Comments
At Mariner Central, Crusty Juggler linked us to Dejan Kovacevic's report that the Mariners are talking extension with Jack Wilson. Kovacevic says that the Jack is offering Jack "a two-year contract worth more than" the Pirates' two-year ultimatum right before the Pirates traded him, "$8M."
We M's fans could hope wanly that this meant $8M for both years together, but that is of course not what Pittsburgh would have offered Wilson in a hail-mary right before trading him. Wilson's previous contract called for $8M per year, and Wilson was playing well for the Pirates.
So apparently Jack... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/06/09
6 Comments
Part I
.
=== Blending the SABR In? Like Vermouth In a Martini ===
Let's face it here. There is no WAR/$ path to justifying an extension and raise for Jack Wilson. Let's look at the picture honestly and clearly, regardless of our affection for the regime.
At best, Wilson's OPS+ will be in the 80's, right? Does ANYbody here think that Wilson could OPS+ 100? Course not.
At best, Wilson's defensive runs saved can be banked at -15-20, maybe 25, right? That's if you grant all of the questionable (not dubious; questionable) assumptions about defensive metrics.
At best, Wilson almost earns... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/06/09
19 Comments
I agree with Craig Wright, who maintains that if an MLB consultant gets 60% of his calls right, he leads the field.
Making difficult projections and getting them right is more like completing a pass in the NFL (60%), more like throwing a strike to Manny Ramirez in the NL (60%), than it is like making a free throw in the NBA (90%, if you're Ray Allen).
Projecting J.J. Hardy, Matt Tuiasosopo, and Brandon Morrow, that's an inexact science (in fact, it's not a science at all). It's not like Larry Bird stepping up to toss in a 15-foot set shot. It's more like trying to complete a down-... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/06/09
Quick index of recent SSI reads on Hardy:
.
POTD JJ Hardy - The Bad -- Dr. D argues that Hardy's declining LD rates, together with his low FB run values, paint a SABR picture of a batter who has been permanently "solved" by major league pitching.
And that even his career-best 113 OPS+ was lucky, so that the upside was never quite as glam as the HR column made it look, anyway.
.
POTD JJ Hardy - The Bad & Ugly -- in which we note that the Brewers' tools scouts themselves flunked Hardy out of major-league baseball.
This is very important to MLB front-office thinking, the question "... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/05/09
10 Comments
Mariner Central amigos chuckling about the fact that Jarrod wants to come back to Seattle.
I don't doubt it (the Washburn wanting to be back, that is). I have also been in situations where the surroundings made me look much better than I was :- ) and was aware that with a little change in the scenery outside the picture windows, I could flop horribly. So I picked the context I could succeed in. Anything wrong with that?
So Washburn realizes his limitations and knows he needs Seattle. I respect him more, not less, for his self-awareness.
.
Q. You're not serious.
A. No. But the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/05/09
13 Comments
Q. What do you think of Washburn's 4.10 career ERA vs. his 4.60 career FIP?
A. Washburn's K, BB, HR and flyballs mark him as an average-to-below-average innings eater. But he's coming up on 2,000 innings now of surprisingly good run prevention.
He's one of those guys who's better than his peripherals. That's not saying a whole lot. Washburn is average-solid.
.
Q. And would he return to the synergy in Seattle, or would the luck run out as it did in Detroit?
A. In Seattle he was one of the 10 best pitchers in the league last year. The Yankees and others were bidding large on... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/05/09
5 Comments
If we're allowed a handful of Mancala seeds to put on the board marking true Junior-level amateurs, then I remember placing five or six in my day...
1. Junior
2. ARod
3. Lincecum
4. Strasburg
5. Ichiro*
6. Matsuzaka*
Those were non-MLB players that we guaranteed for ML success long before they got to the majors.
There were probably a couple of others I forget about now, per Sandy's selective-memory principle.
Godzilla, I think. Ben Grieve I thought was going to be Stan Musial or something, after his AAA exploits. Then again, it's not like Grieve failed to become a major league player... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/05/09
12 Comments
IceX sez,
The Mariners need to play carefully with depth. If you can get someone in MIF for Saunders, that can be a coup, but you can also shoot yourself in the foot bad as well (o, hai Asdrubal Cabrera). Not that Cabrera was traded for depth, but he was traded from what the team, at one time (for right or wrong ignored), considered a position of depth.
I don't expect Z to Bavasi something up, but behind Ackley and Saunders, the depth gets thinner in terms of impact prospects. Sometimes it might be better for the team to consider moving players around instead of actually moving them off... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/04/09
7 Comments
Rounding out our badminton match with Baseball America's Top Ten Plays from Oct 19 - Nov. 1, here they are on Chapman...
...
Flip: Callis "won't be surprised" if Chapman gets three times what Strasburg got, $15.1M. Why? Chapman is lefty, was clocked at 100, and is on the open market, "a potent combination."
However, Callis himself would rank Chapman simply top-25 among baseball's prospects, and Chapman would fail to rank #1 in many orgs' lists.
Chop: This mirrors SSI's position, which is that Chapman is liable to get a whale of a lot more $$$$$ than most fans think he will ... but... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/04/09
3 Comments
In the late-October edition, Baseball America quoted M's farm director Pedro Grifol with a sit-up-and-take-notice position on Dan Cortes...
.........
Per BA, the Mariners were "excited" when they were able to pry Cortes away from KC in return for Frenchy -- Cortes was the Royals' minor-league pitcher of the year the season prior.
The M's are a lot more excited now than they were at the time of the trade, per BA... "by the end of the season, their excitement was through the roof."
As fans from a distance, we only saw the 1-5, 4.94 and 55:35 control after the trade. But what the Mariners... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/04/09
6 Comments
... per Baseball America.
This ranks The Mick ahead of cyber-Seattle matinee idol Alcides Escobar (#6), who the blog-o-sphere in turn ranks ahead of any Mariner prospect since 1977, possibly excluding ARod depending on the World Series game that night. Saunders also ranks ahead of Cameron Maybin and Brett Wallace; the only other Rainier to make the top 20 was Adam Moore (#17).
The only three PCL'ers ahead of Saunders, per Baseball America:
#1 Buster Posey, the $6M man of the 2008 draft, going fifth overall to the G'ints ... an ex-SS compared roughly to a cross between Pudge Rodriguez and... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/04/09
8 Comments
On a slow news day, a few back-reads on Michael Saunders, if you're so inclined.
...
Tale of the Tape - from Dec. 2008, a friendly little debate in which Dr. D argued that Michael Saunders' sabermetrics (i.e. his results) have been well ahead of Mike Carp's.
In fact, Saunders has been pretty close to blue-chip pedigree -- A+ star at 20, AA at 21, AAA at 22 -- whereas he is a tools-projectable player, not a sabermetric one. Like Matt Tuiasosopo, Ryan Howard, and the like, Michael Saunders isn't a player you judge solely (or even primarily) on age-arc performance. Some guys have plateau... Read More