December 2009
Posted by jemanji on 12/31/09
4 Comments
Sitting down to write this post, I was intending to write that whether you voted "Yes" or "No" on Edgar, you were being reasonable. Looking at it more closely, I now see that Yes is probably right.
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=== Chief Justice Dept. ===
You might argue whether Bill James is baseball's greatest sabermetrician, but there is no arguing about whether he is baseball's greatest historian.
As James memorably put it, when he mows the 17th row on his lawn, 8th rank, he thinks, "That's Joe Shlabotnik. 17-8 in 1932." Bill once explained that occasionally in a movie theater he'll stop thinking about... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/31/09
12 Comments
Part 1
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=== DH ===
An argument floated around the 'net this week, pointing out that if you reject the DH on moral grounds :- ) you've got to reject relief pitchers too. Brilliant! :guinness:
(We might add, how about "one-dimensional" pitchers generally -- they only help in one half of the inning, as is true with the DH -- but let's not and say we did.)
While we're on the topic of subjective factors, like hatred of the DH, I personally had guessed that it was going to count for a whale of a lot, that Edgar:
Played in one, blue, uniform his entire career including minors, and
Is such a... Read More
Posted by SABR Matt on 12/31/09
4 Comments
Nick Hill (pictured at left) is catching the attention of Mariner scouts after a strong performance at class AA West Tennessee in 2009 and a still-impressive showing in the Arizona Fall League. A simple By the Numbers description of his career to date:
After dominating Short Season Everett in 2007 (how do 45 Ks and 9 walks in 35 innings sound to you? How about no home runs and only 24 hits in those 18 relief appearances?), he moved on to high A High Desert in 2008. There he posted a still-respectable K/BB but had trouble getting sink on the ball and saw his HR rate climb to 10 blasts in... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/30/09
2 Comments
Baker, once again, with a fine feel for what was really going on in the Jason Bay sweepstakes.
In 5x5 roto with $260 budgets, Shandler disciples spend the first 50% of the draft "price enforcing." They don't want to buy players early; they want to buy them late in the draft, when values are usually better.
But neither do they want Mikey Jay picking up a string of $26 Jason Bay's for $17. So they use the 80% principle: if Bay is worth $26 (and he is), Shandler disciples will consistently bid $21 for him. Once you get to $22, fine, let the chips fall where they may.
..........
The kicker... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/30/09
6 Comments
=== Hist-O-Gram ===
After we saw Kelley on April 3, 2009*, here was our postgame on the lad. The first impression being:
Remarkable command of such a hot fastball
Mechanics, body language suggest he can sustain it
Nice bite to the breaking pitch, seemed to telegraph it
M's 2nd- or 3rd-best reliever immediately
Picking from a long list of candidates, my worst call of 2009 was that the bullpen looked shaky. Either they were a lot better than I thought they were in March, or Don Wakamatsu's genius knows absolutely no bounds.
Anyway, throughout the 2009 season, I thought the M's had exactly 2... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/30/09
7 Comments
Here is an article by Carson Cistulli, following Matt Hanna, in which he finds that you can identify high-K, dominating pitchers more easily by looking for pitchers who can induce fishing outside the strike zone.
As Jeff Sullivan has emphasized, K/9 can be predicted from swinging-strike percentage. (Don't get carried away; you can predict a hitter's AVG too, from his K rate, but it's not an absolute.)
In essence, Hanna found that he could better predict "Expected Strikeout Percentage" by weighting "fishing" strikes against "in the zone" strikes.
A pitcher is doing better, if he can induce... Read More
Posted by Sandy on 12/30/09
3 Comments
"2009 - Return of the Ancient Mariners"
It was the best of times. It was the worst of times. History will remember 2009 as the year the world barely dodged the second Great Depression. As the World Series was wrapping up near the end of '08, the financial turmoil in the American and global economy was an apt commentary on what had happened to the Mariners during 2008. After breezing to an (illusory) 88 wins in 2007, blind optimism reigned as Bedard (Oh Boy!) and Silva (oh, God no) joined the club. The club tanked to 101 losses and the Bavasi era ended, as Jack Zduriencik took the reigns of... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/29/09
9 Comments
Part 1
Part 2
Q. So what would you do with Aardsma?
A. Assuming that there was a team that bought into his closing, I'd deal him, and right now.
But if that's not possible, hey.
Aardsma can close and do an "eehhhhh" job at it. There's a 75% chance he'll bop along with okay success for a while. There's another 25% chance that balls will start flying over the fence regularly, and he'll have to be replaced. Along with the ballclub's confidence at that point.
Going into April 2010, Shandler has him at $16 -- way below the $25 stars of the game, a few bucks ahead of the top closers-in-... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/29/09
6 Comments
Q. What was that over at the Bakery?
A. Geoff Baker with an interesting column in which he proposes that David Aardsma is a more valuable pitcher to the M's than is Mark Lowe.
His main salvo: that Aardsma gets ton more K's. That's fair, and it's also something that SSI has been ignoring.
Hm. Aardsma is a 10-K-per-game pitcher. Another outside-the-box point by Geoffy. Let's have a look...
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Q. You were aanti-Aardsma in spring training, saying that (1) the broken delivery would (2) perpetuate his wildness. Any change?
A. No, not really.
Aardsma did walk fewer men in 2009, going from... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/29/09
10 Comments
Part 1
Q. Is Aardsma any good?
A. Sure he is. He's a white-knuckle power reliever. There's a place for every pitcher who can strike out 10 men per game.
We're not trying to draw Disney pastel cartoon characters here. Guys who fan 10, and walk 5, have a role.
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Q. Why is he good?
A. Aardsma's "max-effort" -- ahem, broken -- delivery creates a hide-the-ball, short-arm effect.
He might register 95 on the gun, but that can look like 97, 98 when you're short-arming it from behind your ear. Add another 1-2 mph for a hitter trying to catch a letter-high pitch.
Aardsma doesn't fan 10 men... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/29/09
6 Comments
Q. What are the salaries for Gonzalez and Fielder again?
A. Thusly:
AGone 2010: $4.7m
AGone 2011: $5.6m
AGone 2010: Free agent
Fielder 2010: $11m
Fielder 2011: 6th arb year (figure $12-13m)
Fielder 2012: Free agent (rep'ed by Scott Boras)
Here is an arbitration scorecard. The highest arb awards to date are KRod's and Ryan Howard's, both at $10m even.
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Q. Meaning the Grand Plan is...
A. If Felix and Lee are going to be your Koufax and Drysdale for five years, you might very well plan on having the best ERA+s in baseball over those years.
You're still going to want to run OPS+ of... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/29/09
10 Comments
Q. So, why wouldn't the M's take advantage of Bay's desire to play here?
A. I don't doubt for a second that Zduriencik, like Taro and others, disliked
Bay's RH flyball bat in Safeco
Bay's age at the end of the contrat
The fact that Bay isn't a plus defender
Add those things up, and I will cheerfully admit that this might not be the guy you want to build around -- and that Zduriencik might well have been reasoning this way.
As Zduriencik said, you've got to have a RH hitter in there somewhere. But this RH hitter can be your #2 or #3 offensive player, not your #1 offensive player.
I take the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/29/09
4 Comments
Q. Is Bay's contract an overpay? What is the reasonable range of what Bay should make, from the highest bidder?
A. It certainly is not an "overpay" in terms of annual salary. I think that the fifth, vesting, year was a premium that the Mets paid to git r done.
I guess you could argue that the Mets like to throw marquee names at their fans, and that their valuation "doesn't count," at least not as much as ours do. ;- )
The problem is, though, the Mets did not offer Bay much more than the Boston Red Sox did. They tossed Bay an extra $1m per year, and grudgingly added a vesting year. ... Read More
Posted by SABR Matt on 12/28/09
6 Comments
Arte Moreno has apparently decided that if his ship is going down, it's going down in a spectacular ball of flames. The Angels have signed Fernando Rodney to a 2 year 11 million dollar contract to apparently complete their off-season in spectacular failure. I say their off-season is complete because, as I will show momentarily, they are now essentially out of money and are left with possibly trading for one more mediocre starting pitcher or signing other bit payers.
Here is the new Angels Payroll for 2010 and 2011
CF) Torii hunter: 18.5 / 18.5
OF) Gary Matthews Jr.: 11.4 / 12.4
SP) Scott... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 12/28/09
7 Comments
How many professional ballplayers are from British Columbia? I don't know. Can't be very many, I imagine. But somehow three of them have converged into a bizzarro vortex this December: Michael Saunders, Jason Bay and Tyson Gillies.
These three guys that we've all been spilling pixels over -- they're all from British Columbia. I don't particularly care, it's just freaky-weird.
Saunders: I gar-ron-TEE that I was one of the first to tout the potential of young Mr. Saunders here or DOV or whatever it was at the time. And I do remember one of the first things I said: left-handed (and Canadian... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/27/09
2 Comments
Per MLBTradeRumors, the A's are very interested in Beltre. They would need for him (and Boras) to scale back his $10-15m per season price tag, for something designed for 'an Oakland economy sized package.'
The catch-22 is that if Beltre accommodates Oakland with a value contract, at that point San Francisco, Detroit, and St. Louis are supposed to be interested.
Odd that the A's, with a hole at 3b, would deal Brett Wallace and then start arguing with Boras about the degree of Beltre's career downslope.
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=== Transition Year ===
If I were Adrian Beltre, and had just hit a grand total of 8... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/26/09
11 Comments
=== Caveats & Quid Pro Quo's Dept. ===
You can order your Forecaster here. No embedded ad links at SSI, but am sure that Shandler wouldn't mind a bit of linkage in return for our moshing off his work.
Not that they've gotten on us about it, but am guessing that we'll probably have to start paraphrasing pretty quick here. General ideas are public domain; I'm a little murkier on infringement issues when you snip 50 words out of a writer's column with link, credit and endorsement. ;- ) Thoughts?
Saunders, League, and Lopez, that is three guys with rosy BaseballHQ outlooks. It's not... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/25/09
5 Comments
HQ Riff: Elite skills masked by aberrant HR/F, Strand %.
BPV, xERA tell the true story (130 and 2.89 - Dr D).
The closest 2009 comp for this extreme GB, Power profile? Some guy named Broxton. Similarly, with the opportunity...
UP: Broxton-esque save totals.
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SSI Mixing Board: Usually Ron will wait on a would-be closer.
His view of the world dictates that a Mr. Magic Closer needs TOG -- Talent, Opportunity & Guile. "Guile" meaning the makeup to handle "the hot seat." The Guile is confirmed how, per HQ? By saving 35 games first.
HQ is generally skeptical of would-be closers until... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/25/09
16 Comments
Just got a copy of HQ under the tree today. Bet you pokeys wish you had wives who gave you Baseball Forecaster for Christmas. :- )
(You can order yours here. No, we don't have embedded ad links at SSI - just fair play for excerpting a bit of Ron's shtick.)
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=== HQ Riff ===
0-4-.221 in 122 AB at SEA. Power skills were nowhere to be found in majors (34 PX), but MLE's suggest there's some pop in his bat. Speed skills are good, OBP is not. Has potential, will need some time to reach it.
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=== SSI Mixing Board ===
In Shandler-speak, he is ranging across a variety of skills that refer to... Read More
Posted by DrNaka on 12/25/09
3 Comments
Part 2 is the main part.
If you think Zduriencik get or trade players based on WPA, WAR or WAR/$ you see only 200 of 1000 bulbs.
How was Aardsma's or Gutierrez's WPA or WAR 2008?
How was the projection for 2009 in 2008 when Zduriencik aquiered them?
Just the results;
Aardsma and Gutierrez have been the second best players behind Felix and Ichiro in 2009!
Now let me tell a story about a car dealer. Zduriencik is the GM of a cardealer which sells Lexus. He has 3 managers and 25 salesmen. 23 are OK but 2 are losers with the names A and B. He ask the manager if they can turn the losers to winners... Read More
Posted by DrNaka on 12/24/09
1 Comments
I think I got how Zduriencik and front office operate.
1. They use something like WPA or REW to make players accountable.
The worst 3 players (Pitchers and Offense each) at WPA 2009 have been shown the door.
Beltre at -1.72, Balentine at -1.44, Cedeno at 1.44
Morrow at 1.69, Silva at -1.28, Batista at -1.27
French at -1.10 is still on the roster but I will get on it next.
This is very important.The pennant is won in part by super players. But it can be won by minimizing players who hurts the team.
The players who had WPA under -1 are:
Mariners had 7 listed above.
NYY had 5 Cano Molina... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/24/09
2 Comments
I/O: Corey Brock, at the Padres' site, relays that Kevin Kouzmanoff trade talks have hyper'ed down. Other commentators wonder if this doesn't mean that they're getting more serious about keeping Gonzalez trade variations open.
CRUNCH: Brock used to be a local Seattle writer, for those of you who joined us late, and does a good job of separating actual data from his own speculation. This snippet probably means that the Padres' people that Brock runs into, are reflecting a lack of action on Kouzmanoff.
The bit about Gonzalez is pure speculation, but it's fun to note that the Pads might... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/24/09
6 Comments
I/O: An Atlanta paper suggests that the Braves, with a hole at 1B, could go after Adrian Gonzalez or Adam Dunn to play 1B. Just speculation on their part.
CRUNCH: Interesting to hear an NL city inquire about the defensively-challenged Dunn, who is one of two or three players in the majors with genuine "80," plus-plus-plus, power.
Also interesting to hear amigos, who drool over the idea of the 300-lb. Prince Fielder, run screaming into the night over Adam Dunn. :- )
With Dunn, you don't bring him in and hope that he'll hit. With Dunn, you write 40 homers and 110 walks into your lineup,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/24/09
=== Yo Mick ===
It's not just Cool Papa Bell and CPB's acolytes, who think that Saunders could become a 5-tool star in the American League. That is backed by Baseball America's ranking -- and by the fact that the Mariners themselves moved Saunders to the front of the line and got him into Safeco.
Nobody rated Saunders as less than a premium prospect. That's because he isn't. Less than a premium prospect, I mean. I was skeptical about him -- until I saw him.
He's got a lightning-quick bat launch. He's got an excellent competitive makeup. He's got tall, lanky leverage on the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/24/09
10 Comments
A day after we gave him the golfclap, Baker with an even more fascinating report -- that both the Mariners and Phillies valued Tyson Gillies more highly than they valued Michael Saunders.
The cognitive dissonance is Dr. D's this morning, lads :- ) Is 'cause I believe the following, with high degrees of conviction:
.......
Belief 1. Michael Saunders is one of the 25 best ML-ready prospects in baseball right now
Belief 2. Tyson Gillies is nowhere near the M's top 10, much less baseball's top 100
Belief 3. Veteran ML tools scouts and GM's know what they're doing -- the more so when they... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/23/09
8 Comments
=== Sweetness In Seattle, Dept. ===
Geoff Baker with a tremendous job, as usual, of asking the right people the right questions.
Here's a great example of the value of the fact-finding sector trumping that of our logic-and-speculation sector. :- ) We could have argued all winter about what the logic of the trade was. Baker found out what it was.
Geoffy doesn't get enough credit. His is the most valuable website in cyber-Seattle, and one of the best baseball columns I've ever seen. Few beat writers combine expert-level knowledge, an on-field background, with access, and feel for what is... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/23/09
8 Comments
A couple of the best analysts on MC/SSI like the idea that Morrow was traded for Lee. ;- ) The fact that such crack analysts like it, that lends credence to the thought...
..............
FWIW, I have never seen business work that way.* There is a boatload of paperwork involved with million-dollar deals, and you don't let contingencies get away from you at the closing table.
You don't sign 45 pages of a million-dollar deal, and wink, and say, okay, we'll probably do that one that YOU like, next week. You get everything signed at the same time.
If you did try that? Sure, I'll give... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/23/09
12 Comments
Spec' says,
I think their approach with Bay is "if he falls into our lap as a tremendous bargain, fine; otherwise, pass." At least that seems to be the way they're treating it.
Why?
(1) LF is their flex point: MB will play there some when Jr is the DH. Saunders some. Figgins can flex out there when Tui plays 3b. The ABs you want to spread around Griffey-Saunders-Tui would all be stomped out by Bay. Otherwise, you're taking Bradley's bat out of the lineup to get those guys in, and that doesn't make sense. (In other words, LF is covered -- by the sum of your part-time parts.)
(2) Z is... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/22/09
17 Comments
Q. With Cliff Lee and Brandon League, right now this ballclub has everything except ... what?
A: A cleanup hitter.
This club has:
Two aces
Talented BOR starters
Lockdown relieving
Great defense
Two All-Star table-setters
A lefty number 3 hitter
Every position covered except LF
Interesting hitters at the bottom of the lineup (Guti, Lopez, 1B, Griff)
.............
As you know, my preferred debating position is the one in which I'm right and everybody else is wrong. ;- )
Cyber-Seattle as an entity, amazingly, continues to root against the Mariners acquiring Bay to hit #4 in our lineup. Yes... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/22/09
3 Comments
Q. What's the bottom line on the trade?
A. Most World Series winners have lockdown, HOF-type closers. Apparently Jack Zduriencik felt it was time to add this piece of the World Series puzzle.
The value of a KRod, Rivera, or Papelbon is completely invisible to base-out metrics. It is an example of Zduriencik's feel for the game of baseball.
Bavasi shared this belief, that a championship team begins in the bullpen. The 2004 Angels had three terrific lockdown short relievers.
Pat Gillick believes this, also. The 116-win Mariners had Rhodes, Nelson and Sasaki. His Jays had Henke and Ward... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/22/09
16 Comments
Q. Is it reasonable to view Chavez as a blue-chip prospect?
A. It isn't, no.
League, we argued Devil's Advocate that it is reasonable to view League as a franchise pillar.
There is no analogous case to be made, IMHO, that MC/SSI analysts are missing anything on Chavez.
...................
We pointed out this Hardball Times list last night, and as you'll note, Chavez is #1 on it. Chavez is no ball of fire, but neither is anybody else on that list.
What happened, quite obviously, is that Ricciardi said "Sure, we can do something around League for Morrow. Pick anybody out of our minor-... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/22/09
6 Comments
SSI has tentatively pegged Jack Zduriencik as one of the best GM's in baseball.
This is not because SSI views Jack Zduriencik's IQ as >140 and other GMs' IQ's as
Dr. D has been many sordid and unflattering places in his 47-odd years, and among the seamiest of those places have been the halls of Fortune 500 corporate America, as a consultant / assistant / gofer / whipping boy of executives from level 2 up to level 5.
Believe him, when he tells you, there is no such thing as a dumb executive. Not when you are talking about u-p-p-e-r management in a large company.
Dr. D has seen really... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/22/09
7 Comments
My least-favorite Zduriencik trades, in order:
1. Aaron Heilman for Ronny Cedeno and Garret Olson. Cedeno and Olson were, in my view, immediate write-offs, as we said at the time. We don't often say this, but it shouldn't have been hard to realize that these two guys weren't going to contribute.
2. Jarrod Washburn for Luke French and Mauricio Robles. Baseball was aghast at the alternatives turned down, were aghast that Capt Jack liked Luke French, and IMHO they were right.
Granted, G-Money thinks Robles is the key to the deal. I understand and respect this position.
Problem is,... Read More
Posted by Sandy on 12/22/09
11 Comments
Wailing and gnashing of teeth on the Brandon for Brandon swap. Mostly, this is due to the (IMO - utterly preposterous) idea that Morrow has a shot at becoming a legitimate TOR starter some day. This belief is built primarily on a PERCEPTION of overpowering stuff with gaudy 10/g K-rates. This is further buffed by a visual perception of outstanding mechanics.
The perceptions of how good Morrow is - or might one day be - are built more on hope than of actual production and performance. In short, the strong tendency with Morrow has been to heavily weight each good performance and blithely... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/21/09
15 Comments
Taro points out, "WAR also underrates relievers slightly. Yes, Position players and SPs are far more valuable, but elite relievers pitch in much more leveraged situations."
This leveraging can amount to a factor of about 1.5, in my opinion.
For non-closer, #1 setup relievers brought in to put out fires, it might be more than that. You are not going to see me using WAR to evaluate trades for franchise relievers.
............
Per WAR, Mariano Rivera has averaged 2.2 WAR the last eight years -- so he's as valuable as an exactly league-average outfielder, right? Two wins above replacement... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/21/09
8 Comments
Jays' fans are spreading a rumor that the prospect the M's get back is Brian Dopirak. I don't mind noodling around about meaningless rumors. Typing is not one of my problems :- )
...........
Dopirak is a huge, RH first baseman who in 2004 had the kind of season only four or five Mariners farmhands have ever had. As a 20-year-old, much younger than his teammates, playing in a pitcher-friendly Midwest League, Dopirak posted an amazing SLG or .593 -- about 40 doubles, and about 40 homers, in 137 games. Carlos Triunfel wishes he could put those kind of results up.
Dopirak was the #21... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/21/09
1 Comments
A few weeks ago, Jack Zduriencik turned down an offer of Edwin Jackson for Morrow + change.
Saying that he didn't want to give up that magnitude of talent, considering Jackson's service time. (He was willing to give up lesser talent than Morrow's, that is Aumont's and Ramirez', for a pitcher with only 1 year's service time.)
I think it's safe to say that the Jays deal is not explained by the idea that baseball doesn't know about Brandon Morrow. And safe to say that Zduriencik plans to get very high return, on-field, from this trade.
Not publishing the gospel. Just remindin' about the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/21/09
11 Comments
It is quite reasonable to view Brandon League as simply a better pitcher than Brandon Morrow.
I spent, er, wasted my time defending Brandon Morrow's value for how long now? Fifteen years, has it been? There are 1,000 hours of my life I'll never get back :- )
................
If League is going to become the next Jonathan Papelbon, OR CERTAINLY if we start hearing about the rotation, well.... League throws every inch as hard as Morrow, and unlike Morrow has his wipeout offspeed game all ready to go.
If the "flash of genius" here is a plan for League to move into the rotation, League could... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/21/09
2 Comments
If Arencibia be the prospect coming to the M's, here is the MLB scouting profile on him, coming out of college. Arencibia was projected to go in the first few rounds, but the Jays grabbed him with the #21 overall.
Exec sum of the MLB scouting report: Arencibia is below-par defensively, definitely has raw power, but really does nothing else well. (As it happens, his minor-league offensive performance has been consistent with this.)
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In other words, Arencibia's appeal has been all about the allure of getting 30 or more homers from the catching position, and in fact he did SLG .560 in... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/21/09
11 Comments
Brandon Morrow, in his last outing, got the ends of his fingers slightly more on top of the baseball at release, per Adair's gospel. He threw, IIRC, a 1-hit shutout with 10k's (or something very similar).
That outing is entirely reproducible. Just a quick visual to twist the knife a bit. ;- )
If he is indeed moving out for Brandon League and a prospect, we can see three completely different scenarios in which this helps the Mariners win their next pennant:
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=== Prospect ===
Scenario 1 would be ... the "prospect" is Travis Snyder or somebody like him. Snyder and Wallace aren't "... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/18/09
18 Comments
I know we're all eager to throw Capt Jack an election campaign, and I think he's great too. If we could take a breath for a second, though, and look at it calmly, this looks like a very intelligent, and favorable, trade for the Cubbies.
You can view the trade from this angle: money-wise, it is as though both teams continued to pay their own players, but the M's paid the Cubs $4.5m to loan Bradley to them over the next two years, while they loan Silva to the Cubs the next two years.
That is hair-fine in its equity, and suits the Cubs very well:
..............
Remember that the Cubs HAD... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/18/09
16 Comments
Q. How good was he in 2007-08?
A. He had a batting line of 310/425/550, in 750 plate appearances across 24 months.
In terms of HR rate, walk rate, doubles rate, speed ... he was a switch-hitting Edgar Martinez. With a few more dings and few less walks.
He was Matt Holliday, if Holliday had a little more OBP.
He was Jason Bay, if you added 30 points of AVG, OBP and SLG.
Bradley, in 2007-08, created 9 runs per 27 outs -- for the non-saber reader, if you'd had nine Milton Bradleys in the lineup, you'd have scored 1,450 runs and averaged 9 runs per contest.
That was based on the basic idea... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/18/09
Agamemnon: "We can't control Achilles! He's as likely to fight US as the Trojans!"
Sage: We don't need to control him. We need to UNLEASH him!
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Q. Is it possible to draw a bead on the Milton Bradley template, without personally knowing the man?
A. In my opinion, yes, if you've spent some time in the sort of place in which Bradley grew up, the Bradley personality is not unfamiliar.
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Q. Is that PC?
A. Bradley did in fact grow up in LA's inner city environment. We'll leave out a characterization of what that environment is like :- ) beyond the TV cliches, and just note that Bradley... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/18/09
5 Comments
Part 1
Q. Do you like Milton Bradley, Doc?
A. Sure. I think he's cool, as far as his personality.
The 1970's-ff Oakland Raiders built a dynasty, in part, out of taking misfits and giving them a home. Ted Hendricks, Lyle Alzado, Lester Hayes, Jim Plunkett, guys like that ... the Raiders just didn't care how they acted off the field.
John Madden dealt with this collection of berserkers by telling them they had two rules: show up to practice on time, and play like crazy when I tell you to.
....
Chuck Knox got Brian Bosworth in, and laughed about Bosworth's pretensions about being a... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/18/09
15 Comments
Part 1
Part 2
Quotes continued...
“There's always race in everything. You see, that's another thing, white people never want to see race with anything. There's race involved in baseball. That's why there is less than 9 percent African-American representation in the game.”
This factor, from Bradley's point of view, is non-negotiable.
I wonder, BTW, at exactly what point the 9% figure was accurate. 1962?
...............
“I want people to say Milton Bradley was a pretty good ballplayer and a pretty good person. Anybody who is going to stand between me getting there, then they need to be... Read More
Posted by Sandy on 12/18/09
4 Comments
A-Gon. Nick Johnson. Branyan. LaRoche.
Every other day someone is pushing the idea of some 1B import to come and pump up the offense for the Ms. And in nearly every case, the idea that the Ms "might" have a LONG TERM 1B option nearly ready in AAA as we speak isn't mentioned. I appear to be the only guy on the planet, (except perhaps Captain Jack), who believes that Carp is being SEVERELY under-rated by the masses. So, I thought I'd explain why I believe this.
The obvious: He's a high OBP 1B with some power, (which is exactly what Johnson and LaRoche are). He's also effectively free of... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 12/18/09
5 Comments
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/thehotstoneleague/2010540975_shocker_mariners_trading_carlo.html
Carlos Silva for Milton Bradley is the report. Money almost matches up: $4M difference over the next two years.
So there's your veteran outfielder, and another guy who draws a lot of walks. Question is whether he'll be walking off the field under an umpire's supervision.
Another curveball from Z.
UPDATE: Now official: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/marinersblog/2010541230_mariners_officially_announce_m.html
Posted by Spectator on 12/17/09
16 Comments
It sure seems to me that if they really wanted Jason Bay (as in "really, really") they could have signed him by now. Z seems to be sufficiently lukewarm that's willing to wait out Bay and see if a better fit doesn't develop. Also a sign, I think, that they are high on Saunders.
Now there is buzz that Milwaukee's interest in Morrow could be related to a trade for Mat Gamel: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/minorleagues/prospects/y2009/profile.jsp?t=p_top&pid=451143 Hey, big surprise, a left-handed bat with a high OBP and moderate power. LaRoche, Johnson, Luke Scott . . . Seems fairly certain... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/15/09
14 Comments
=== Baseball-Reference.com Comps ===
If you look up the guys that B-Ref.com has as comps for Lee, they're not much use. The list of 10 has an aggregate ERA+ of 105, because James' formula uses career totals. Cliff Lee, of course, was one pitcher before 2008, and another pitcher after 2008.
John Burkett, Kirk Reuter and Charles Nagy are in there because they didn't walk many guys. But as you can see, "doesn't walk many guys" is not a defining characteristic of a pitcher family.
Let's assume, for a moment, that the Cliff Lee of 2008-09 is the Real Cliff Lee. He did throw 300 innings last... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/15/09
6 Comments
Part 1
=== Caveat Emptor Dept. ===
There is one major problemo with the above comps.
True, they all match well in fastball velocity. They match well in that, as a group, they had plus command. And they all had superb control ratios.
The first thing you notice here, is that most of them finished their careers with ERA+ of around 110-115.
Cliff Lee, of course, just finished posting two ERA+ a whale of a lot better than that: he was 131 last year, and 168 (!) the year before that.
...............
So is this our first lesson learned? That Cliff Lee just had two spectacular career years... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/15/09
21 Comments
Part 1
Part 2
=== Lesson Learned #1 ===
At first, seeing the unimpressive 110-115 career ERA+'s of this group, I was a little afraid that maybe Spit-Polish Lefties didn't throw 140 ERA's, except when Perfect Storms occurred in their careers here and there.
That is not the case. Got-the-Whole-Package 90mph Lefties aren't limited to the #2 slot in the rotation. Most of these guys were well capable of pitching Opening Day -- when healthy.
So, that's good.
We conclude that Cliff Lee will be able to contend for Cy Youngs as long as his arm is fresh. He's a number one starter.
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=== Lesson... Read More
Posted by SABR Matt on 12/15/09
5 Comments
I'd just like to take a step into the "wav back" machine and take a look at the Mariner depth charts at the moment of Jack Zduriencik's inception as GM - side by side with the current Mariner depth chart assuming the Cliff Lee deal does indeed get finalized tomorrow morning. We'll use italics to represent players you cannot win your next pennant with, and bold to represent players you can without question win your next pennant with. For minor leaguers this is based primarily on the odds of that players making some positive major league contribution within a short time period.
Catchers:... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/14/09
9 Comments
Surfing the internet, we came across this quote from Bedard last August:
"I want to come back. I said that months before the surgery," he said. "But I don't know what their feelings are now. I'm sure we'll talk at some point."
Which is exactly where Ken Griffey Jr. was.
..............
Here's the question. Supposing that Bedard's top offer was $3M. Are the M's forced to offer a minimum of $6.4m -- the max 20% pay cut -- if they want him back? Or does the 20% pay cut proviso apply to club-controls players?
If everybody else caps out at $3M, Bedard couldn't accept $5M from the M's? Does... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/14/09
20 Comments
An article by Nick Cafardo in Boston states that the Padres have offered Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox for:
1. RHP Clay Buchholz
2. RHP Casey Kelly or OF Ryan Westmoreland (Sox' choice)
And that the deal is not going through, because Kelly and Westmoreland are both untouchable in a Gonzalez deal.
To which we can confidently respond, "huh?"
............
It really does look like, with the glut of FA's available, the trade market has swung way over towards valuing prospects. I mean, during the season, the Yankees protected four young players and then told the M's "pick five!" for Felix.... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/14/09
5 Comments
Jayson Stark and Tim Kjurkian (sp) were marvelling, on ESPN, that 3 of the game's 10 best starting pitchers each left their teams in one 24-hour day. Has that ever happened before?
Not only is it thunderously rare (maybe unique) for 3 such prize horses to bolt their stables all at the same moment.... but it so happened that each of the 3 were direct knees to one single team's man region:
............
1. John Lackey, genuinely the guts of their 6-year* division stranglehold, left.
1a. He went to perhaps their most heated rivals, Boston, who crushed them in the playoffs in 2007 and 2008. ... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/14/09
12 Comments
Just guessin' tonight, but hey. It's a baseball chat. Here's more guessin'.
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=== Extension ===
Word is that the Phillies asked Lee about an extension and his agent stood firm at "5, 6 years, Sabathia dollars." Meaning 20-23 mills per.
Remember, though, it's a new league for Lee. And it's a town he had been in for a couple months, and if you've ever been to Philly, it's not the most livable city in America. No offense, but it's easy to imagine that Lee didn't particularly want to play in Philadelphia.
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Roy Halladay does like Philadelphia, and his extension was what, 3 x $20m. With... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/14/09
3 Comments
And I'm lovin' it. Mwahahahah. Geoffy with the hookups, me cherrypicking a few faves:
.......
Is John Lackey a Traitor?
Yes
1489 votes | Results
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LOL! A 1-vote poll and 1,500 people jump on the vote button :- )
........
........
The Angels always make “serious runs” at top free agents every year but really they are being used to drive up the prices of players for the competing teams. Then the Angels settle for a few useful veterans to fill out the line-up just enough to get them a few games into the post season and that is it.
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Hey, it's called Price Enforcing, dude. Live with... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/14/09
1 Comments
If you like Baseball America, you'll love Jay Yencich's analyses of the M's minor leagues.
It sort of reminds us of Bill James, back in the late 80's, warning his most hardcore fans... hey, if you live in Cleveland, you're going to know more about the Indians than I do. But I'll try to help you out on the other 29 teams. (Bill often pointed out stuff we didn't know about the Mariners, too, of course.)
Baseball America has some crack analysts, but there is no way that any national analyst is going to keep up with Jay on the M's minor leaguers. If you pay $6 for a copy of Baseball America... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/14/09
15 Comments
Just got home to find out that Capt Jack mighta landed a Star to end all stars. Man. Gimme Cliff Lee over John Lackey any day.
Only have a coupla mins, so... the SSI quick-take is:
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=== Comps ===
Seven strikeouts and 1+ walks is a template. Greg Maddux and Cliff Lee are in it. Also Dan Haren.
Brad Radke, Jamie Moyer et al don't count. Cliff Lee is not a soft-tosser. He's not standing in a pub trying to shave the triple-20's.
Halladay and Greinke and Schilling don't count. They're running real low BB totals by throwing nuclear stuff down the middle -- albeit at the knees or letters. ... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/14/09
11 Comments
If folks pencil out this move according to the same standards used to evaluate the Erik Bedard trade, it will undoubtedly look like a disaster.
If the M's give up several young talents for Lee, they'll obviously take a pounding within the Net Performance Profit paradigm. I mean, if Michael Saunders provides you even two years of mediocrity, that's $20m performance profit right there. All of the Adam Joneses and Carlos Gomezes of the world turn you the $8m, $10m yearly profit just by being average.
....
So, we take it that a Cliff Lee trade would get some wheels turning. Life isn't as... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/13/09
11 Comments
=== DH Options ===
Intriguing young TTO outcast available for the grabbin'. Hm.
The thought is floated that a guy like Jonny Gomes couldn't get serious AB's at DH in Seattle, the logic being that Junior blockades the Port of Bench Bats.
Very good, except that in 2009, the Mariners did exactly that. Mike Sweeney and Junior were on the same roster all year long. There are a few guys in the majors who play less defense than Sweeney, but they want out of Washington D.C.
There is a specific reason that this was possible. It was because Don Wakamatsu was not encumbered with the MLB(TM)... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/13/09
8 Comments
=== Jonny Gomes Non-Tendered ===
Let's say that you were looking for a Three True Outcomes muscleman who fit the following criteria:
60-to-160 EYE
27-30 HR per 162 (so far)
435 feet is routine when he gets his pitch
You can't use Jack Cust, because Cust's EYE is a reliable 0.50; Jack Cust walks a ton. Like 100-120 times per full season. Extreeeeeeme pitch stalker.
You can't use Rob Deer, because Deer wasn't really very good. He'd fan 200 times, full season, and hitting .179 in a season wasn't shocking for him.
You can't use Adam Dunn, because Dunn does not hit 27 home runs per season. ... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/13/09
3 Comments
Q. Would LaRoche get two thumbs up, or two thumbs down, from SSI?
A. As a consolation prize for a marquee bat like Jason Bay, Adrian Gonzalez, or even a Carl Crawford -- paid 3/$32m to hit fourth -- two huge thumbs down.
As an upgrade to a Nick Johnson concept -- taking a much smaller contract -- he could help the M's win a championship.
As a replacement for Russell Branyan -- he'd be a melancholy, but logical, risk management plan. Where Branyan could give you $1.00 or $0.01 cent, LaRoche locks in the $0.50 cents. Like two backgammon players splitting the value of the doubling cube,... Read More
Posted by SABR Matt on 12/13/09
4 Comments
With talk flying around the Mariner blog-o-sphere including raves from Jason Churchill and a generally positive vibe in most circles regarding Chien-Ming Wang (recently non-tendered by the mighty Yanks), I think it's important to put this issue forward in its own thread here.
Q: Could Wang's foot injury and subsequent arm problems be related?
A: Of course they could. He was rushed back into action after badly hurting his foot on a fielding play. You ever try throwing a baseball as hard as you can while your foot is throbbing? It screws with your delivery and you end up with a sore arm. ... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/11/09
35 Comments
He's a pinball wizard
There has to be a twist
A pinball wizard's got
Such a suuuuuuupple wri-i-ist
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=== The Question is Moot Dept. ===
Take out a #2 pencil kiddies. It's multiple choice, pass-fail. We haven't POTD'ed Matt Holliday because:
1. The M's aren't playas for marquee FA's
2. Matt Holliday can't hit in the AL
3. Scott Boras is his agent
4. Don Wakamatsu won't have anything to do with former A's
5. We don't have the mojo to compete with the Red Sox
6. All of the above
7. None of the above
...............
The correct answer, of course, is 7., None of the above. Scott Boras... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/11/09
5 Comments
In this article, we mentioned the subject of good wrists in the context of hitting mechanics ...
If there were two places you'd want to start, in judging a hitter's ability to adapt to new pitchers, they would be (1) EYE ratio and (2) wrists. That is the front end and back end of reaction at the plate.
Let's put on the Elton John glam eyeshades and check a couple of M's through this lens:
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=== Jack Wilson ===
It's fine to hinge your wrists at the plate, but the question is whether you give away power doing it.
You've heard scouts say about a little infielder coming up, "you can knock the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/11/09
5 Comments
=== Beltre ===
We mentioned in the Holliday article that Beltre uses the anti-wrists "golfer's triangle."
He insists on swinging for the fences, so obviously has to commit very early on the pitch. Hence the fishing for pitches that break outside the zone.
Beltre is worth 10, 15 runs over Lopez with the glove. Fly me to the moon. That's wonderful, but doesn't Lopez' hitting talent count, either?
Beltre for $13m, that would be peachy keen. Lopez for $5m, siiiiiiigggggghhhhh I guess we can put up with him for one more year if we have to.
.....
Both of these guys are good actors, both are... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/09/09
7 Comments
A Red Sox writer states that three other teams are into Bay right now, alongside his own Sox. He bases this on "a source familiar with the negotiations." That's Bay's agent, in writer-speak. Apparently, news of the death of the M's interest in Bay has been overstated.
Red Sox - pole position, though also supposedly hot on Holliday
Mariners - jemanji is hopin'
Angels - Sending signals that they have other priorities, but would be ok with a bargain
Mets* - Could be, but with the Mets specifically, this is often Eastern media
...........
Epstein gave an annoyed quote that implied that the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/09/09
5 Comments
Q. Doc, thoughts on Mike Cameron for LF next year?
A. He's a 1-year value Civic who will give you $10-12m worth in LF, for $5-6m worth of salary, as Jose Lopez does.
You want to pay for a net profit on a Civic, short term? That is a philosophical choice against your options of (say) scrub Saunders and star Bay.
Do you plan to win your next pennant with Mike Cameron? If so, I guess you're planning on winning the pennant in 2010. I like the attitude. ;- )
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Q. Do you buy the idea that Cameron is worth more than Jason Bay?
A. Do you buy the idea that 30 GM's are subject to mass delusion... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/09/09
Q. In the Gospel According to SSI, how much gas does Cammy have left in the tank?
A. We sat down ready to write at the age of 36 -- turning 37 next year -- Cameron had not yet shown even the onset of senility.
That's because his OPS+ has been 111 and 111 consecutively, the last two years -- even a bit higher than his career 107. Beautiful!
His EYE ratio is steady as a rock too. He is most definitely a fast-twitch guy with the physique, in principle, to play late into his 30's.
............
Actually, you look again, though, and the golf ball looks to have started its gentle drop... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/09/09
17 Comments
Word right now is, 1 x $7.5m, with another year at $11.5m option, presumably a vest? If it's purely Texas' option, then the market was awfullllly soft for Harden... 1 x $7.5 plus 1 x $11.5 club -- that is worse, for Harden, than 1 x $7.5.
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=== REL is a skill, too ===
Harden, like Erik Bedard, is awesome when he's on the mound. And $7.5m is an "underpay" in absolute terms, if you expect even 100 innings out of him. (The same is true of Bedard.)
Right now, Rich Harden looks great in the Rangers' rotation -- because he doesn't have to pitch yet. Check him in July.
$7.5m doesn't... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/08/09
16 Comments
Cool Papa directed us to Tango's response to complaints that the $/run (WAR) model might be broken. I did scan Tango's initial response, though not the comments yet.
...............
Re: Tango's having to address protests that the model is "broken" -- it seems a lot of people don't get what the model is. A person who asks whether the model might be broken, definitely does not understand the model, because it can't be broken.
That's okay. Here are a few things we need understand and $-per-run and inflation:
.................
1) What $4.5m per win means. It just means, here was the average... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/08/09
8 Comments
There is one thing genuinely broken, about the way Fangraphs information is deployed.
"Theo Epstein 'overpaid' for Joe Shlabotnik: he paid $12m per year and Shlabotnik's performance is worth only $10m. I see him drinking Diet Coke a lot. I'll bet he hasn't heard that aspartame lowers IQ."
WRONG!
Teams paid, on average, $10m for performance like Shlabotnik's. Any leap towards "$10m is 'correct' and holds true, at all points in time" is a clear logical fallacy.
Year after year, article after article, we see players lined up against these averages, and anything that deviates from... Read More
Posted by SABR Matt on 12/08/09
11 Comments
This just in, all the talk of the Yankees not being in a rush to make moves has turned out to be a fib. At least if the deal being discussed around the web is made official. They've finally plugged the gaping maw that was screwing up their whole outfield defense - CF.
The Particulars of the Trade
For the Yankees:
Curtis Granderson (CF) IN
Ian Kennedy (SP)
Phil Coke (RP)
Austin Jackson (CF) OUT
For the Diamondbacks:
Edwin Jackson (SP)
Ian Kennedy (SP) IN
Max Scherzer (SP)
Daniel Schlereth (RP) OUT
For the Tigers:
Austin Jackson (CF)
Phil Coke (RP)
Max Scherzer (SP)
Daniel Schlereth (RP) IN... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/07/09
8 Comments
Fast question, for Cool Papa, Taro, or those who follow Tango's comments threads...
Have Tango ($4.5/WAR) and Lichtmann ($5.1/WAR) suggested that they're going to re-value 1.0 WAR? By how much?
.............
John Benson CPA calculates the worth of production by simply taking all available dollars and dividing by bases/runs available in the free agent pool. I'm sure that Tango and Lichtmann do something similar -- free agent dollars spent by MLB in a given year, divided by runs created,* or something within that general paradigm.
...............
Can this ratio really have changed so much... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/07/09
24 Comments
The Bakery is a veritable $1.99 buffet of pastries and pies this morning. If any other blog had a fraction of this "hard" information, we'd be awestricken ...
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=== Sittin' By the Doc on the Bay ===
As San-man aptly put it :- )
Doc has been waiting on pins and needles for the seismo that the M's were still in on Jason Bay, despite the Figgins signing. And here is Geoffy, confirming exactly that.
We'll leave Matty to re-pencil the budget math on a presumption that Jason Bay is actually madly in love with the M's, as reported... he can estimate the contract as well as anybody...
The M's,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/06/09
7 Comments
No idea whether the M's are still considering another impact bat. Like we say, we've got doggy ears perked up, hoping for any whisper to that effect :- )
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=== Hurt Me ===
M-Pops points out that Jason Bay has some spectacular numbers against high-priced Yankee pitching...
Those are some nice numbers against tough pitchers. I wonder what he was against Sabathia... ok, 1-for-6 in 2009.
I see that against NYY in 2009, Bay hit .392/.475/.686 in 14 games, 56 plate appearances. He was .400/.450/.700 in Yankee Stadium, which is similar to Safeco.
We know, we know -- it's not scientific. But it... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/06/09
2 Comments
Q. Was it justifiable, at the time, the Mariners letting Randy Johnson go? After all, who knew he'd become a freak, start winning Cy Young awards and pitch till he was 45?
A. I'm not sure that I follow you guys, offsite, about Randy Johnson getting good after he left?
His record was 43-6 his last three years in Seattle. (Is it okay to mention wins and losses?)
He was 75-20 his last five years. His ERA+ was 190 his last three years; in 1995 he was 18-2, 2.48 with 297 strikeouts and 64 walks.
Did you guys miss 1995? And 1997 wasn't any different.
................
Who thought Randy... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/06/09
7 Comments
Rosenthal tells us that the M's have made Felix an offer: 4/$45m.
IF true, where did we get this information? Almost certainly, Felix' agent, or his operative, leaked it.
And why would he do that? It's to his advantage to call foul on the M's. He wants to rally support for his side. He wants the fans and media pressuring the M's.
It's the same thing, on a smaller scale, that unions do when they feel that management is lowballing them. They can't go to court -- they take it public. Power to the People, dude.
................
Jemanji is not speaking as a fan when he rolls his eyes at... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/06/09
14 Comments
Matt tips us off that Geoff Baker tosses out an enigmatic Twitter, seeming to claim that Jason Bay would love to play for the Mariners.
Since the Figgins coup, I've been doggy-ears-up, harking for the gentlest whisper that the M's are still in on another big hitter. Who knows, but...
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=== Figgins vs Bay ===
The Figgins PLUS Bay rumors still have some traction...
Again, don't get me wrong on Figgins. The Angels' fans are chipping their teeth until they crack over the loss of Figgins to the M's -- even calling it a bellwether changing of the guard.
This implies their own firm conviction... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/04/09
4 Comments
Jason Stark points out that last winter, the Yankees committed a total of $441M in free agent dollars ... compared to $176 million for every other American League team put together!
So it is by a wonderful alignment of the planets that these things came together:
1) The Yankees are the-winter-after, therefore unusually absent
2) The Mariners have $50m off the books and have their Big Cash Winter
3) Jack Zduriencik has his first established winter at the helm, and is eager to do a Chuck Knox Instant 2-12 to 12-2 Turnaround
............
Cyber-Seattle intones "$25M" as the amount that Seattle... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/04/09
=== Angels Seen Wandering Drunk On I-5 ===
Jason at Prospect Insider says that the Mariners are "adamant" about signing either John Lackey or Rich Harden.
In free-agent parlance, that would mean that the M's have made strong offers to both, and it's a question of which one responds first -- if either do, of course.
Jack Wilson said, on the radio, that the M's landed him because their first offer was very close to what he thought he'd get in free agency anyway.
Same thing with Figgins. The M's pushed a big stack into the pot and they pushed it in early.
If Churchill's right about his... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/04/09
6 Comments
=== Figgins on Monday? ===
MLBtraderumors.com says that the Figgins deal will be signed Monday -- because that's Beltre's deadline for accepting arbitration.
We hold one of these two truths to be self-evident:
(1) The light bulb that Jack Zduriencik had on, that we in cyber-Seattle did not, was that he was much closer to the situation and knew that the chance of Beltre accepting was nil, -OR-
(2) That is wayyyyyyyyy too much of a gamble in order to gain one draft pick.
The odds against that draft pick ever mattering in the major leagues ... are at least 6:1 against, fellers. We are not... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/03/09
25 Comments
Set out trying to convince myself that Jack might be right about Figgins -- if he lands Figgins, of course -- and whattaya know, the more I look, the more I see an argument for.
With Zduriencik right now, I'm kind of in the mode I'm in when sitting across from a grandmaster. I suggest this and that and there, sure I'm right. He chuckles and shakes his head no. I think whoooops, okay, what did I miss.
Granted this post is a bit in that spirit. Call me fickle. I've got respect for the light bulbs that Zduriencik has on.
Where might they be?
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=== In Theory, Dept. ===
In our article on Bill... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/03/09
8 Comments
=== I don't know what this has to do with anything, but I thought I'd bring it up Dept. ===
I watched a TV broadcast years-ago, in which three satellite feeds were on the screen -- one with Bill James' talking head, one with Kenny Lofton's, one with the sportswriter's.
James had the task of educating the writer in three minutes. The guy asked James, "Why is Kenny Lofton the best leadoff hitter in the game? Why not Craig Biggio?"
Bill said, "In order to be a great leadoff hitter, you have to do three things. You have to hit .300. You have to take a walk. You have to steal bases."... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/03/09
13 Comments
POTD comin' Spec... sure enjoy the badminton matches you bring to the table bro'... this rat cheer is not a POTD, but if you want to mosh off the below, I'll be interested to see whatcha'll got :- )
Jason Bay is extremely similar to (a faster) Jay Buhner, offering a steady .500 SLG along with a gorgeous .380 OBP, as well as the 80-90 walks and 150 K's ... it is no accident that GM's are on him like bums on a baloney sandwich...
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=== LF ===
The negatives are obvious and almost cliche'd at this point. What would be interesting, would be to hear Jack Zduriencik's specific response to the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/02/09
2 Comments
Q. Are 125-150 innings of Rich Harden worth more than, say, 200 innings of Jarrod Washburn?
A. Of course they are, if you could get 125-150 innings of Harden, in form. But you might want to be clear about the fact that this is the best case scenario.
Granted, he's thrown 140+ the last couple of years. Those were career years, healthwise.
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Q. Is he really that good?
A. Harden is simply death on a stick when he's feeling good.
Get him when he's right, with bounce in his step, and he's the closest thing you're going to get to the old Randy Johnson.
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Q. Like what?
A. Harden's... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/02/09
6 Comments
Q. So what's the saber assessment of him?
A. What's to saber? When the guy's on the field, he's awesome. He and six or eight other guys, Halladay, Felix, Greinke, they overmatch their opponents.
Some years one's a shade the better, some years a shade the worse. They're all Cy Young starters. We're not using instruments fine enough to discern which one's better. It doesn't matter much.
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Q. So Harden's as good as anybody. What's the best-case scenario on his 2010 results?
A. That the Mariners sign him, pitch him 5 innings about once every ten days, and then ride him white-knuckle... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/02/09
16 Comments
Q. Is there a solution for Harden's chronic health issues?
A. Harden's attempting a solution: he throws just two pitches now.
He uses an overhand rising fastball, a straight change, and he has STRICTLY junked his other pitches in a desperate attempt to put together a career.
2009 was the first year that Harden went out there throwing a 1-finger, a 2-finger and nothing else, ever.
If you're an optimist, you could hope that this is the magic sparkle dust.
I'd be more optimistic if the problem were his elbow. It isn't. It is (a) his shoulder, and (b) every part of his body (a la Marfan... Read More
Posted by anonymous (not verified) on 12/02/09
I guess my post a few weeks ago on Edgar Martinez and the Hall of Fame made me into a bit of an activist on his candidacy’s behalf, because I’ve gone to the trouble of assembling a lengthy post elsewhere gathering up trivia, anecdotes, and select highlights from his career, with the aim of showing Edgar to be more than just a compiler of impressive hitting statistics. The core of what I found was Edgar impressively playing through two on-field incidents in September 1997 that left him literally in stitches. Here, taken from the post, is that story. I don’t know if this will convince... Read More