March 2010
Posted by SABR Matt on 03/31/10
As a means of showing you a little more about exactly what kind of team I've projected, I will now break down all of the individual batter and pitcher ratings into the components that make up a WAR value, and then do some adding up for the team make projections for team total RS and RA to test whether my 91 win projection is robust to my OPS and DNRA projections.
Remember...for a hitter, there are 4 pieces to a WAR value - wRCAA, FRAA, Replacement Level, and Position Adjustment
We agree with Sandy that the position adjustment for catchers is largely invented nonsense, as such, I am going to... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/30/10
5 Comments
SSI is an Official Sponsor of the David Pinto Baseball Musings website. We love da bum.
For those who just joined us, David created Probabalistic Model of Range, one of the five top D-metrics out there, so is a card-carrying Top Sabermetrician. We also love his well-rounded approach to analyzing baseball and his easy-going, cool-as-a-cucumber, just-the-baseball, JFro-type style.
David does a lot of things on his site. One of the things he does, is project AL* offenses in a very objective way. He collates for us these two things against all ML teams:
Marcel the Monkey forecast system, x... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/30/10
Part 1
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Let's run the table again, and this time remember the 40 runs a season that the benchies will cost the real AL team withs their bats. "Normalized," Marcel the Monkey predicts these 2010 deltas:
+0.08 ... KC ... 4.23 ... 4.31
+0.12 ... CHW ... 4.47 ... 4.59
-0.18 ... Det ... 4.56 ... 4.38
+0.27 ... Bal ... 4.57 ... 4.84
-0.19 ... Oak ... 4.69 ... 4.50 (gimme five, dude)
+0.26 ... Cle ... 4.77 ... 5.23
+0.26 ... Tex ... 4.84 ... 5.10 (yowch)
-0.33 ... Tor ... 4.93 ... 4.60
+0.20 ... TB ... 4.96 ... 5.14
+0.21 ... Min ... 5.01... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/30/10
15 Comments
Part 2
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=== Lucky? Or did he do it on purpose? ===
4. Go back to the Musings article and notice that Wok's lineup is whisper-close to HAL-9000's lineup.
That's not really miraculous; it's natural to have your two OBP guys at the top. I wonder if all teams whose only good hitters are table-setters have very good theoretical lineups...
One more argument for the HOF leadoff hitter. Though his OPS is relatively low, he gets lots of AB's. It's like a pitcher throwing 250 innings. Volume counts too.
Chone Figgins is not only here, but also, he will get a LOT of plate appearances. Ain't... Read More
Posted by SABR Matt on 03/30/10
So with only one unit left to diagnose in detail, I'm up to 86 wins. Ask five Mariner fans at random (at least if you're picking from the well-informed folks in the broad Mariner blog-o-sphere) and you'll get 5 totally different opinions about how useful the pen will be. Sandy, for example is busily claiming the team has some problems in the pen that could kill its chances. Doc thinks the pen is strong enough that we don't need Keeley's arm in it. :) The USSMariner crowd seems to believe the bullpen is only a minor strength, not a major plus. And I wind up somewhere in the middle.
I... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/30/10
34 Comments
Dr. D's mainframe calculates that its subscribers might tolerate one post like the following ... :- )
Score SSI's pre-camp roster preferences vis-a-vis the M's end-of-March decisions. Let's start with the four benchies: Tuiasosopo, Sweeney, Byrnes, and Johnson. This was precisely SSI's four-man bench coming into camp:
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=== Matt Tuiasosopo ===
Coming into camp, outsiders viewed Tui as a longshot and only then if the M's had a 5-man bench.
Backup SS was definitely out of the question, and Josh Wilson was considered the only viable in-house UT after Hannahan.
In fact, national blogs, and... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/30/10
3 Comments
=== Rob Johnson ===
Here is the October 2009 analysis which opined that Moore and Johnson were the logical catching crew for 2010. Here's why SSI didn't buy into the criticisms of Johnson's defense.
We never saw Josh Bard as a guy intended to nursemaid Moore, much less to start. He was always insurance from Zduriencik's point of view.
M's fans can again take this as great news -- Moore and Johnson are much more experienced than we tend to think they are. They're ready to compete. They're both dynamic young players.
XBH for our local mainframe on this one?
..........
The big advantage: ... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/30/10
5 Comments
Geoff Baker argued that Matt Tuiasosopo has a logical place on the roster as its backup shortstop.
Notice, going in, that Jack Zduriencik and Don Wakamatsu agree with him. (Can you feel my glee as I play this trump card over and over? Reminds me of my baseline Kiki Vandeweghe J. Oh yeah. Can you Deal with This. :- )
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=== Paradigm Paralysis, Dept. ===
In 21st-century AL baseball, everybody has four people on the bench:
backup catcher
utility infielder, usually a glove-first SS who owns four mitts
an outfielder who can either field or hit, but not both (else he'd start)
Guess what? ... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/30/10
6 Comments
=== Pro Ball NW ===
Jon has an article up on Dustin Ackley. His comprehensive series on the 40-man roster is indexed at Mariner Central. PBNW ought to have a widget in the sidebar, allowing fast access to each of these articles. They could even run RotoTimes style updates. Might even take us on the inside corner for #3 blog ;- )
PBNW has mastered that which SSI never did - the art of avoiding the trite. So, the Ackley post is commendably terse. You know that SSI will be able to wring another 10,000 words out of the Carew comps and SX projections.
Jon's opinion seems to be that Ackley... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/29/10
10 Comments
Haven't seen anybody mention this around the blog-o-sphere, but during Sunday's TV broadcast, Sims and Blowers were talking about Pineda. Sims, Neihaus and Rizzs were at Pineda's last performance; Blowers hadn't been.
..............
Sims, IIRC, asked Blowers if he'd gotten a chance to see Pineda.
"No, huh-uh. I heard he was throwing a hundred."
Sims falls out of his chair. "Oh, man, Mike, it was siiiiiiick. Dave and Rick and I were screaming up in the booth. It was insane" (or some such see-you-and-raise).
Blowers says something I forget...
Sims: "He doesn't walk... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/29/10
11 Comments
Part 1
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Q. Does his elbow hurt now?
A. I can tell you that I cannot throw 100% with my elbow tendon inflamed. No way no how, babe. Pineda's hitting 100 mph, he feels fine ... before the game, anyway.
After the game, your elbow might hurt so much you have to fight back the tears, and it doesn't mean you're injured. It didn't for me, anyway.
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Q. So you keep him in the minors to baby him?
A. Nobody has ever explained to me, just exactly why 80 innings at West Tennessee is safer than 80 innings with the Mariners. Can you?
If my son John had a sore elbow in 2009, and you... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/29/10
11 Comments
Part 2
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Q. So what's Pineda's future?
A. Well, if the reports on Pineda are anywhere near accurate, he is one of the five or 10 best pitching prospects in all of organized baseball.
Let everybody else take a year or two to come up to speed on him, and to get comfortable thinking of him as a superstar. At SSI we call things by their right names. Pineda's a monster Grade A+ prospect, one of the 10 best pitching prospects in baseball, health questions notwithstanding.
Pineda was a blue-chip, Grade A prospect back when he threw 92-96. Now, he has apparently put on a bunch of weight and... Read More
Posted by anonymous (not verified) on 03/29/10
1 Comments
I love the mariners, however is KG only there to sell tickets?. I was working in Seattle when he left and as I remember there were many fans who were not too happy with him. The word that was passed around some of the talk radio shows was he was a "happy guy" only when there was a tv camera in front of him. I remember a guy calling in relating that after battling practice the guys young son asked for a autograph as KG was walking by ( no tv cameras around) and was told by KG to [take a hike]. just what does he offer considering that he can't run, play defense, nor hit anymore? Sell tickets ... Read More
Posted by SABR Matt on 03/26/10
16 Comments
Link to the position player summary article:
http://seattlesportsinsider.com/news/revised-war-stack-pitching-preview-...
*sigh*
All of the rumblings out of Seattle seem to indicate that the Mariners have absolutely no intention of adding another starting pitcher. Which, given Zduriencik's track record, implies that we're about to hear that they traded for Roy Halladay and Tim Lincecum in a five-team 32 player mega-blockbuster. :)
But I'm going to write this piece under the assumption that we get no additional help in this department and that the club has supreme faith in its ability to... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/26/10
12 Comments
I/O: Luke French now on the cusp of getting some Safeco starts. Amidst much weeping, wailing, and gnashing of teeth.
CRUNCH: SSI has been a bit mis-read on Mr. French. He has a very low chance of having a good career in the long term, we sez. But! that doesn't mean he can't cobble together a dozen okay starts. Any quality AAA pitcher is capable of winning 50% of his MLB games for a month or two, and certainly French is better than "any quality AAA pitcher."
French has a big time yellow hammer and three pitches, and though he's fringe ML, that doesn't mean that the M's can't win... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/26/10
15 Comments
I/O: Michael Pineda is now reportedly throwing "99 mph with command."
CRUNCH: If I'm not mistaken, there did once live a man, in Hobbiton, who threw 99 with command. He threw nothing other than this one pitch, a high-90s located fastball. He threw 6,000 innings in the big leagues and gave up 1400 runs in his life time.
So if the Big Train could do it, I suppose eventually somebody else was bound to come along who could do it.
Take that back: probably Satchel could do this, too, in his 20's...
.........
Adding to the urban legend, every M's guy who comes on the radio, literally giggles... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/26/10
1 Comments
Ken Rosenthal's article resonated far more powerfully than it should have. There's no cause for panic. But it's fair to say that there are a lot of scouts who are sounding off along these lines. Jason published a scout back in January who said, "Shut down their offense and beat up on their 3-4-5 starters. Nothing to worry about in Seattle," or somesuch.
Our man Geoff Baker summarizes -- we're paraphrasing -- "Why did the Mariners go from chic pick to win the AL West -- to everybody's pick to be the biggest disappointment in the American League?
"That's because when they made the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/26/10
=== Sabe-per-Matt Dept. ===
If you are feeling in surgeon-cool mode, Matty has done a comprehensive job with the preseason saber expectations for the 2010 M's.
He could be right or he could be wrong -- it's up to you to point out exactly where his model goes off track. If you think you'll have an easy time catching mistakes, we'll give you a hint: you won't.
At MC, he summarizes thusly:
I've got the Mariners projected to aroud 88-90 wins right now even under the assumption that the rotation's junk starters are worth zero wins total and the entire team defense rests with three good... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/26/10
If you just sat down in the 321 (SSI) section, the Q-and-A is a tip o' the cap to the mid-90s Bill James writing style. It chunks the information, decreases scan time by a full 52.7%, and increases retention by 4%. As far as you know, anyway.
The following is a Public Service Announcement from Young Frankenstein LLC. It's not an infomercial that is going to be taken off-air any time soon. Ohhh Nooooo! Change the channel (to Larry LaRue's blog) before it's too late.
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Q. So Shawn Kelley really does have a good changeup?
A. Thanks to LL for laying out his stats from Changeup Outing... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/26/10
5 Comments
Q. M's need him in the bullpen.
A. People say this and I always think, hey, then you need Felix in the bullpen too, right?
You would never put Felix, or Cliff Lee, or anybody like that, in the bullpen even if you were the 1997 Mariners and your pen was the laughingstock of the league.
...................
What people mean by this is: "we know Kelley is a great reliever, and we're not sure what he'll be in the rotation, so why fix it if it isn't broken."
SSI is completely sure what Kelley would be in the rotation. ;- ) Not sure why anybody else isn't.
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Q. The M's need somebody to get... Read More
Posted by SABR Matt on 03/25/10
6 Comments
I'm skipping the starting rotation for the moment. Why am I skipping the starting rotation? Because I'm literally on my knees and *BEGGING* the Mariners' brass to go out and sign another starter before I do that piece. With Fister, Lee and Bedard out at the start of the year and uncertainty surrounding Vargas, RRS and Snell, the Mariners NEED to acquire at least one more starting pitche. Ideas being floated right now are Chad Gaudin and of course, Jarrod Washburn.
I don't honestly care who we sign, as loing as they can go 7 innings when stretched out and can pitch into the defense. It... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/24/10
13 Comments
You know the way in which you wring a sponge if you're trying to get it completely dry? Here's what I saw during Wednesday's TV game...
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=== Matt Tuiasosopo ===
Pinch-ran, about the 3rd, for Milton Bradley, and went out to left field. I noticed two plays:
1) A long, high gapper off the left-center wall -- it was Byrnes' in CF -- that Byrnes played a bit awkwardly. Tui, backing up, had it roll away from him toward the LF line and trotted after it leisurely.
2) A hard drive straight over Tui's head -- he turned his belt buckle to the foul line and ran it down, but had to 'banana' back... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/24/10
4 Comments
Dreary ballgame. No Junior, no Tui, just a lineup full of Josh Bards and Josh Wilsons and Chris Woodwards -- in other words, it wasn't the Mariners we were watching on TV. It was some sort of baseball exhibition, but it warn't us playin' in it.
We understand of course about the "alternate starters and Rainiers" idea, but is it really out of the question to put a few exciting players in, when there's one TV game every 7-10 games? :- )
All the Padres pitchers are at 85+ pitches, I guess... they know their 25-man, and are just waiting for the start of the season. The one redeeming... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/24/10
3 Comments
People have asked about the 2005 Detectovision.com articles that were, in my opinion, plagiarized by the P-I.
Here is the article that Jon Paul Morosi published. (It seems like other material was published at the P-I that day, too, but I could be wrong about that.) It was published on page A-1 of the newsprint Seattle Post-Intelligencer on Nov. 16, 2005, very top of the page, in a 'screaming headline' inset box.
The article discusses interviews that Ichiro gave in Japan, in Japanese, that had been noticed by Dr. Naka in early November 2005. Dr. Naka wrote me by e-mail about these... Read More
Posted by SABR Matt on 03/24/10
SUMMARY TO DATE:
REPLACEMENT LEVEL: 48.0 WCATCHERS: 2.4
- Adam Moore: 1.7
- Rob Johnson: 0.8
- Josh Bard / Eleizer Alfonzo: -0.1FIRST BASEMEN: 1.7
- Ryan Garko: 1.0
- Casey Kotchman: 0.5
- Mike Sweeney: 0.2SECOND BASEMEN: 4.2
- Chone Figgins: 4.2
- Jose Lopez: 0.3
- Jack Hannahan: -0.3THIRD BASEMEN: 2.6
- Jose Lopez: 2.3
- Matt Tuiasosopo: 0.1
- Jack Hannahan: 0.2SHORTSTOPS: 1.0
- Jack Wilson: 0.7
- Matt Tuiasosopo: 0.4
- Josh Wilson: -0.1OUTFIELDERS: 13.5
- Ichiro Suzuki: 5.2
- Franklin Gutierrez: 5.0
- Milton Bradley: 2.3
- Eric Byrnes: 0.9
- Ryan Langerhans / Michael Saunders: 0.1
We... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/23/10
Malcontent's article on Casey Kotchman is a model of what a minority report should be: data-rich, logical, compelling ... and with a snark mg/dl of 0.
Not only Dr. D, but the admins as well, dearly value this sort of think-tank dynamic, one which has driven the frictionless idea exchange at DOV, MC, and SSI for a few years now.
That is what social media in the 21st century will be: news and analysis in the hands of 7 billion people, with droves of 'net denizens migrating to the places (SSI notwithstanding!) that house the most ideas and the least agenda warp.
Does Dr. D... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/23/10
12 Comments
I/O Malcontent: LA, Atlanta, and Boston punished Kotchman's fly balls to right. Safeco will reward them. Since 2007, Kotchman has hit 22 of his 32 homers in road stadiums.
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CRUNCH: This idea -- as it applies to the generic ballplayer -- is underappreciated.
Time and again, Dr. D cringes when analysts use the syntax "Ichiro hit .352 as a Mariner; playing in a neutral park, Ichiro would have hit .368/.402/.513."
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=== Canadian Exchange Dept. ===
No way no how. That is NOT what park translations imply.
What park translations imply is that Ichiro's .352 average, in Safeco, was... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/23/10
27 Comments
=== Pavlov's Dogs Dept. ===
Players get conditioned by their home parks. You want a study? It's called Psychology 102 in any accredited university. Every organism above bivalve :- ) develops habits according to the rewards and punishments occurring around it.
That's not a maybe. It's not negotiable. You, my friend, are the product of conditioning. So is every other human being from IQ 50 to 200.
....
But just because Dr. D lives to serve, he'll publish a little study in the structure we're familiar with. :- )
Let's take a look at the Rockies' splits in the Galaragga - Bichette -... Read More
Posted by SABR Matt on 03/23/10
13 Comments
SUMMARY TO DATE:
REPLACEMENT LEVEL: 48.0 WCATCHERS: 2.4
- Adam Moore: 1.7
- Rob Johnson: 0.8
- Josh Bard / Eleizer Alfonzo: -0.1FIRST BASEMEN: 1.7
- Ryan Garko: 1.0
- Casey Kotchman: 0.5
- Mike Sweeney: 0.2SECOND BASEMEN: 4.2
- Chone Figgins: 4.2
- Jose Lopez: 0.3
- Jack Hannahan: -0.3THIRD BASEMEN: 2.6
- Jose Lopez: 2.3
- Matt Tuiasosopo: 0.1
- Jack Hannahan: 0.2SHORTSTOPS: 1.0
- Jack Wilson: 0.7
- Matt Tuiasosopo: 0.4
- Josh Wilson: -0.1
The outfield picture is starting to take shape now that Michael Saunders has been demoted and Corey Patterson is falling out of favor (and likely headed... Read More
Posted by malcontent on 03/23/10
19 Comments
Very few people are happy that Casey Kotchman is the Mariners' First Basemen. The defense is nice, but hardly anyone sees his upside, at 27, as more than a .790ish OPS, and a lot of people not even that. We all know the argument by rote: Kotchman's mediocre power is supressed by a ludicrous percentage of groundballs, which is especially bad since he's too slow to beat out a decent percentage of infield hits. The consistant talk of Wakamatsu leaning toward batting Kotchman third is no doubt blood curdling to most fans. I, however, think it's a great idea, and there's a lot more potential... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/22/10
14 Comments
Wrote the other three articles first ... guys I don't like as well as the M's do (just a couple), and guys that both they and I are unusually high on (scads, we were surprised to find out) .... funny thing, can't find many that I like better than the M's do.
At 5 a.m., honestly can't think of why that would be. But:
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Shawn Kelley as starting pitcher. From what filtered intel we get, the M's are maybe toying with the idea.
Shannon Drayer floated the idea early in spring training and we all wondered if this was just her noodling, or her reporting something. A few days later, we received... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/22/10
1 Comments
Guys that the Mariners are, in their wisdom :-) currently deploying though other teams might not:
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Erik Bedard. It's now completely evident that the Mariners planned The Bedard Maneuver from the moment he went on the DL.
Mariner-world had one foot out of town for the 10-K ace all winter long. We have a feeling that, when Safeco has 44,000 for an Angels series in September, Mariner-world is going to be awfully glad that wasn't true.
There really isn't any reason to choose a healthy Cliff Lee over a healthy Erik Bedard, if both are ready to go and a Big Game is up that night. In fact,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/22/10
More guys the M's, and I, like more than does the madding crowd:
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Shawn Kelley. Although they should like him even more than they do. :- )
They threw this guy right into the high-leverage situations with little ado, despite the fact that he was a big surprise in training camp. Keen talent judgment, massive confidence in their own on-field scouting, and they reaped the rewards.
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Kao-Kan Attack. This year's quasi-RH-Sherrill has been laying batters waste with his Funk Casts, and right now the M's are showing baseball how Rule 5's should be spent...
Kudos again to Pro Ball NW, who... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/22/10
=== Two Thumbs Way Down, Dept. ===
Players I like considerably less than the M's like them:
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Casey Kotchman. Just wrote the articles detailing why.
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Ian Snell. Fastball is simply too easy to see. Rough road ahead even in the NL; odds-against in AL are necessarily longer.
Will cheerfully concede that many insiders see 3-4 strikeout pitches, and the All-Star of a few years back. IFF they're wrong and SSI is right, I believe the point that is evading them, is the hittability of Snell's fastball -- he throws it from father away than other pitchers do, among other problemos with it.
The... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/22/10
7 Comments
== The Case For ===
The oooooooonnnnnnne thing that Casey Kotchman does have going for him, is that he's age 28. (And, objectively, that he used to be an uber-glam prospect, but I don't count that, for reasons explained shortly. I also don't count that he's better-looking, richer, and a superior human being to me. That doesn't help him hit Scott Kazmir.)
The M's have stated, in one-syllable words so that Dr. D can understand it, that they think Kotchman can grow from here, that he can leap a plateau, that we haven't seen his best.
They stated this just again this week, when reporters... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/22/10
Part 1
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=== Case For, Redux ===
To lighten up a little bit ... Bill James was asked, by Geoff Baker, what he thought of Kotchman.
Bill had Kotchman in Boston last year, of course. He did point out, well, Casey is one of those players who does a little of everything -- get you some AVG, runs well for a first baseman, a little gap power, very good defender.
What James meant, was that OVERrated players are those who do one or two things very well -- they have an empty .320 average and they're stars, or they hit 32 homers with terrible OBP's and they're stars, or they steal 60 bases with 4.00... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/22/10
13 Comments
The M's fascination with this pokey has reached epic proportions, as they now put him on the marquee as their 3-hole hitter.
Why?
Because Kotchman is good at staying out of double plays. The only thing we got goin' for us is all those first-and-thirds this year. Gotta get a batter who meshes with 'em.
:blinks:
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=== Don't Shoot the Messenger Dept. ===
SSI has warned since the day Kotchman signed, that Kotch is:
A tomata can
A groundball machine, particularly during rallies
A stiff mechanical hitter without the physical gifts to hit well in the majors
Like Chavez and Hannahan, a... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/21/10
13 Comments
At the Bakery they want a nickname for Kanekoa Texieira. They need one, too, 'cause I'm well-and-truly tired of typing his name. :- )
Did you youngsters know that the QWERTY keyboard was designed, supposedly, to slow down typing so that levers wouldn't tangle? Kanekoa Texeira takes this principle to a grotesque extreme. Kanekoa Texeira is to typing speed what Adam Dunn is to outfield DER.
............
How many of you kiddies ever watched Dragonball?
Kao-Ken* is the signature attack of the star, "fist of the worlds," a weird attack (like Teixeira's) that allows its user (Goku) to... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/21/10
17 Comments
=== TNT ===
Larry LaRue hits 94 with a game recap that not only info-tains, but also points out a dynamic streak to this year's roster.
For some reason, it hadn't quite hit me that the 2010 Mariners fulfill the leadoff hitter / aces-full rotation synergy used by the Herzog Cards in the 1980's...
Thusly in the first:
Ichiro singles. (This actually won't be as uncommon as you might think.)
Figgins grounds a ball inside the line... "and those two went into full sprint mode."
With 0 outs, the M's manufactured (?) the second run. M's 2, Angels 0.
As soon as the SP then knocked out a 1-2-3... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/21/10
7 Comments
=== Compass Rosy ===
Notes a Cactus League attendance figure of 13,444.
My wife and I would go to the Kingdome in the early 1980's and, on a weekday, the attendance would be 3,000 to 5,000. I've never really shaken that off -- we still go down to Safeco on a Tuesday and half-expect to be the only, literally the only, fans in a particular section of the top deck.
Those M's would get 20,000 or 25,000 to Saturday games. And 30,000 on a giveaway. Just a baseball game on Thusday? 13,444 would have been double, triple the usual crowd.
Needless to say, MLB insiders blasted Seattle. Your... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/20/10
7 Comments
At MC, Vidya points out this finding by Gennaro in the 2010 Mariners Annual:
Brilliant! :guinness:
Further, Gennaro went on to demonstrate that these 80 innings per year, for a lousy defensive team, get shifted from the rotation pitchers to the worst relievers.
Also, another 35 get shifted from the best 4 relievers to other relievers.
Assuming that the top 8-9 guys run 4.25 ERA's and the other guys are at 6.25, that's 2 runs x 13 games' time = 26 runs per year, or one full run every six games. Completely and utterly invisible -- in terms of March roster decisions -- until Gennaro's... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/20/10
19 Comments
I/O: Jeff Sullivan with a solid little quick-study on performance before and after LASIK.
Sully selected the 26 names with a reasonably non-prejudicial method - the 26 names that came up when he Googled "LASIK" and some other term ("MLB"? who knows).
Even for peer review, Googling can count as a random-enough selection method, actually. It's not like you're taking the names off of last year's leaderboards.
97 wRC+ before; 109 wRC+ after the surgery.
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CRUNCH: Slap me silly. It's one thing to see performance influence reflected in a study. It's another thing to get a result like... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/20/10
20 Comments
CRUNCH: SSI's guess is that if a player suddenly manifests 20/10 vision, he's going to hit better. How's that for going out on a limb.
We remember a famous Babe Ruth anecdote where somebody asked him to read something, go to the movies, or whatever ... quote, "If my eyes went bad even a little bit, I wouldn't be able to hit home runs."
Little Joe Morgan has stated that All-Star hitting isn't based on physical reflexes; it is based on being able to see the spin of the baseball as early as possible in its flight. Think about that.
Ted Williams, even in his 50's, was able to consistently... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/19/10
4 Comments
I/O Mike Sweeney: Per the Live! broadcast, it is "hilarious" that a team, not able to hit its way out of a paper bag, is even thinking about cutting the one guy who's hitting .750.
Career .300 hitter, reminds Baka, slugged .500 last year "as soon as his back was healed" and this spring is simply continuing what Sweeney was doing when we last saw him in September.
Sweeney is way slimmed down from 2009 is the report, both down in bodyfat and actually slimmer in the chest and arms. Looks 30 years old.
His triple on Thursday was no accident -- Sweeney is actually pretty fast now. ... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/19/10
I/O Jose Lopez: The Mariners like Lopez' work at third base this spring. They want to see him take a couple of particular angles, show he can make this or that particular play, and then they'll probably finalize his move to 3B.
They could wait until Albuquerque without problems, says Zduriencik on Rockies TV the other day. But they'll probably finalize Lopez at 3B shortly, barring somethin' ugly...
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CRUNCH: One thing we tend to forget: basically any 2B could play 3B, if he had the arm. I mean, there is work to do, but we have wayyyyyy over-emphasized it.
Think about all of the Nick... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/19/10
Slam-dancing again off Baker's show on Thursday -
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I/O Ryan Rowland-Smith: Baker, who isn't an extreme optimist about RRS anyway, reminds that Rowland-Smith has never gone a year in a big-league rotation. Baker throws in the observation that "Rowland-Smith is historically a slow starter in April and May."
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CRUNCH: Hm. Certainly RRS had velo problems in March-April last year, so much so that SSI wrote him off at those 86 gun readings... looking at it again, it wasn't until August (!) that he got untracked, and in 12 starts down the stretch he posted an ERA of right around 2.00.
Is... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/19/10
Moshing off Geoff Baker Live! last night.
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=== Kanekoa Texeira a Mariner! ===
Baker puts the exclam on it, saying it's a done deal. With 12 men there isn't even any discussion left about it; with 11 pitchers, it would be between Tex, White, and the long man, with Tex the least likely to be cut.
So, here's a cool addition to a cool team. Go baby.
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=== Fister vs Vargas ===
Reportedly, Luke French is not in consideration for the #5 slot at this time. Olson barely ever was, and now is not in the discussion.
By the way, after those 4, next in line as of March 7 was Yusmeiro Petit. Since... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/19/10
28 Comments
As far as I know, Baker's interview was the first and only time that Bill James has commented extensively on the Seattle Mariners specifically. In the modest little world of baseball saber, it was a historic event, for us here in Seattle.
Just real quick: a couple of people groused that "sabermetrics have passed James by; he's no longer relevant." Baker, amused, replied that Bill James has two World Series rings and is participating in decisions with the Boston Red Sox.
Typing up theories on the internet, Baker quipped, that some day might even be used by a major league team, that is... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/19/10
1 Comments
=== M-Pops on Roster Stagnation ===
I/O:
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CRUNCH: Brillllliant!! ::guinness:
Full disclosure at the outset: James has been writing about this growth-consolidation Law of Gravity since the 1970's. We believe we have read almost everything he's ever written about it... there are at least a dozen things conspiring to prevent a team from two leaps in a row, as you acknowledge in your remarks, Pops.
The first thing that James referred to with Baker was exactly this idea that in year 2, the manager does not have the same blank check to play the best players, in whatever roles he sees fit... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/19/10
7 Comments
Maybe :- )
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=== Sandy on Branyan ===
I/O:
CRUNCH: Your intuition may be even more bulls-eye than you realize, San-Man...
On Geoff Baker Live, somebody was busting Geoffy's chops about being too tough on Milton Bradley (and Geoff hadn't been, but that's another story).
Baker laughed about this, saying that Bradley is "intelligent enough" to know that his story was ironic, and "Bradley is 31, 32 now, a grown man, not a 5-year old" and isn't going to react like, quote, Russell Branyan about every perceived slight or annoyance.
...............
Whereupon, BING, the kewpie light went off as... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/18/10
Q. Do spring training results matter? Are these results mattering?
A. In general, ML teams can and do go 11-19 in the spring, and rip off 8 wins in the first 10 major league games. Happens all the time! Weaver's sixth law: nobody cares in September whether you won a game in March.
With this specific team, the 3-4-5 starters are performing badly, throwing weak pitches, and this is a team that has to lead the league in ERA to have any chance.
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Q. How was Hyphen today?
A. It doesn't matter that he got blasted again. What matters was that he was 87 mph Hyphen again. SSI was... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/18/10
20 Comments
Q. What do you mean, the M's can't get complacent?
A. Bill James isn't the HAL-9000 computer, and he isn't always right. But he does have a unique history-coprocessor on the motherboard, and on Geoff Baker Live he was quite down on the M's chances in 2010.
For one thing, teams that improve by as much as the M's did in 2009 need "consolidation" years. You don't leap way ahead, and then leap way ahead again the next year. Very rare.
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Q. But the M's have all different personnel.
A. Every team, quoth James, that goes from 100 losses to 85 wins, has 25 :- ) different players. They still... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/18/10
14 Comments
Steen with an interesting question:
Matty offers the low-five:
SSI finds the question commendable. I totally agree that the torch-and-pitchfork media lynchings on steroids is hypocritical and unfair. The level of ostracism that McGwire and Sosa have received is laughably out of proportion. I don't know what repressed angst the crusaders have lurking, but it isn't about steroids per se, I know that.
...............
Dr. D does quibble with the word "arbitrary", mayhaps...
Ultimately, the FDA and similar federal agencies decide whether Lasik vs. roids vs marijuana are okay or not.
Not... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/17/10
=== SIZZLERS Setup Hitters ===
First inning and right! off! the bat!, Ichiro is on base and Feldman gets over-absorbed in his battle with Mr. 100 walks. Ichiro gleefully exploits the lapse in concentration and takes off even before Feldman begins his delivery.
2B standing up.
Ichiro is as alert as any player in baseball. Fans get frustrated with him for not running "when we need a stolen base." But Ichiro does not run based on when he wants to run; he runs when the base is available.
This is similar to chess: you don't attack the King because you feel like attacking the King... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/17/10
11 Comments
=== FIZZLER Milton Bradley ===
This is really day trading, but I'm a little anxious about Bradley's power. I'll feel better once he jacks a few. If he's going to.
.............
The way the umpires treat him, makes me genuinely sad. It's going to spoil the games for me, about 40% of the way, each time a plantation umpire makes it a point to break proud Milton to the yoke. I'm not charging racism. I'm charging insensitivity - to Bradley's circumstances and background. Now he has to behave better than everybody else?
Call the game. That's what you're paid to do, ump.
Bradley's livelihood... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/17/10
=== FRAZZLER Ian Snell ===
What's in no-man's land between Sizzler & Fizzler? F' Shizzle? Frappe? Zsaszle?
Ian threw a knockout slider tonight, as evidenced by the 5 strikeouts against only one walk (5:1 meaning that you are getting strikes without making them fish). The slider not only had hair on it, but it was thrown with really gorgeous arm action, almost like a change, and had the Rangers out in front.
The fastball was hit. a. bowl. baby doll. Snell's FB is usually -2mph, due to his actual release point being far from home plate and other things, but today it was also... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/17/10
=== FIZZLER Jesus Colome ===
As reasonably explained by Blengino, "you can't teach his kind of arm" and sometimes just a change of scenery, or the confidence accrued in front of a good defense, can "cause the light to come on"...
I used to roster Colome, back when he was a closer-hopeful for the D-Rays, and brought it at 94-97.
Tonight he threw a few hitters' worth at 88 mph (!), then a few at 89-91, and touched 92-93 a time or two before finishing at 89.
Might have been a slow gun, but the ball wasn't really exploding out of his hand. And he was wild.
.................
Think of it this... Read More
Posted by SABR Matt on 03/17/10
11 Comments
SUMMARY TO DATE:
REPLACEMENT LEVEL: 48.0 WCATCHERS: 2.4
- Adam Moore: 1.7
- Rob Johnson: 0.8
- Josh Bard / Eleizer Alfonzo: -0.1FIRST BASEMEN: 1.7
- Ryan Garko: 1.0
- Casey Kotchman: 0.5
- Mike Sweeney: 0.2SECOND BASEMEN: 4.2
- Chone Figgins: 4.2
- Jose Lopez: 0.3
- Jack Hannahan: -0.3THIRD BASEMEN: 2.6
- Jose Lopez: 2.3
- Matt Tuiasosopo: 0.1
- Jack Hannahan: 0.2
We all know who the Mariners have at shortstop on opening day, and as far as projections go, Jack Wilson's is among the least exciting on the team. However, there are a couple of questions that require in depth analysis. First... Read More
Posted by SABR Matt on 03/17/10
17 Comments
For now...this is just a heads up. FSN is covering the Mariners/Rangers game tonight at 7 PM PDT (10 PM EDT)...finally some night baseball that I can actually watch!
Ian Snell gets the start (good...I need to see how he looks this spring before I get to his part of the WAR Stack series...LOL), and - this will give us a chance to scout the Rangers too...
So while you're enjoying the feast of St. Patrick...feel free to also enjoy the Mariners game tonight and post comments and thoughts here. I will be adding to header post during the game.
Posted by jemanji on 03/16/10
15 Comments
=== Aiki-Wok Extends Ki ===
So, Dustin Ackley is a second baseman now. If he hasn't shown you what you wanted to see by now, you shouldn't have run the experiment to start with, right?
The TNT with an adieu to Ackley. Divish, on the scene, opines that Ackley works hard and is open to instruction, not only from his coaches, but that he also is not too ego'ed out to sponge off his senior players, even at the position he's competing at.
Aiki-Wakamatsu notices a "calmness" to Ackley's play at second base. This Ichiro-like serenity is considered the final stage of mastery in Japan... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/16/10
17 Comments
=== Kanekoa Texeira ===
Pro Ball NW's comprehensive 40-man series has freshness for yer on Texeira. Jon found that Texeira -- a sinker/slider guy -- not only has a worm-burnin' groundball rate, but that he also, um, strikes out tons of left hand hitters.
I will cheerfully admit that I don't remember seeing this kind of platypus before. Apparently neither had the M's, who spent a Rule 5 on him and, by definition, gave Texeira a real good shot to be a Seattle Mariner in 2010.
Here is a Yankee-fan's report on the dude. Jon's site has one pitch of Texeira warming up, which contradicts Tex's... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/16/10
11 Comments
And so, at long last, the 1970's-era SSI green radar screen finally picks up the Carrera bogey...
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=== Today ===
Got cut, prompting moonlight to reflect the sun's opinion that Carrera could see action in Safeco Field at age 23.
Ironically, getting dropped from the travelling squad, with this particular timing, finally alerted Dr. D to the fact that Carrera is in the M's plans.
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=== WOB-jection ===
Reasons that SSI was so slow to come around, on such a blog-o-sphere fave:
(1) The skill that makes Carrera special is his sky-high OBP. But ML pitchers will see a little guy like that and... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/15/10
7 Comments
=== Vargas at ProBallNW ===
Jon with one of his patented graphics. :golfclap:
PBNW uses the data to draw a rock-solid conclusion -- the velo drop coincided with a drop in arm slot. Both associated with fatigue. (The drop in arm slot is like not stepping into a jumper in basketball.)
A super catch that hasn't been linked elsewhere. As Vargas cynics, we'll cheerfully admit that this crack assessment breathes fresh oxygen into the fire for Vargas' fans.
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=== Mariner Central ===
I/O: Discussing the fact that Bedard "feels like he never had surgery."
CRUNCH: In retrospect, it... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/15/10
The last few days, with Dr. D skulking about involved in various unwholesome non-baseball activities, the blog-o-sphere balanced SSI's shtick by framing a "slow down theyah ponderosa" argument against Kelley's conversion to starting pitcher. Well, not an argument, more like a caution not to get too jazzed.
No point in countering that, because you know and I know that the Mariners very probably won't convert Kelley to the rotation. :- ) SSI asserts only that it would convert Kelley to the rotation. That the Mariners are thinking about thinking about it is the second-best... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/15/10
14 Comments
Part 1
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Q. How much worse would Kelley be as a starter?
A. He ain't gonna post no 8 blinkin' K's a game, I can tell ya that. Nor will he walk 1+ men a game.
Relieving is easier than starting, a lot easier, and if Shawn Kelley were really going to strike out 8.0 men and walk 1.8, well... it reminds of when Jim Lefebvre put Bill Swift into the starting rotation for a couple of weeks. Swift fired three games like 1, 0, 1 ER.
Reporters asked hopefully, "if he keeps pitching like this, will he stick in the rotation?" Lefebvre replied brightly, if he keeps pitching like THIS, he'll... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/15/10
3 Comments
Part 2
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Q. How many RP's effectively convert to starters?
A. Not many.
Part of the reason is because, as has also been noted, most of those RP's were placed in the rotation in the first place, because they wouldn't have been very good starters. Or, as is true with Mark Lowe, because their arms wouldn't hold up to it.
But usually it's that the pitcher isn't good enough to throw 180 innings effectively. Most RP's would be overexposed in the rotation.
..............
If you want one very compelling example, though, check Adam Wainwright.
He had a 2006 season verrrrry similar to Shawn... Read More
Posted by SABR Matt on 03/15/10
OVERVIEW TO DATE:
REPLACEMENT LEVEL: 48.0 WCATCHERS: 2.4
- Adam Moore: 1.7
- Rob Johnson: 0.8
- Josh Bard / Eleizer Alfonzo: -0.1FIRST BASEMEN: 1.7
- Ryan Garko: 1.0
- Casey Kotchman: 0.5
- Mike Sweeney: 0.2SECOND BASEMEN: 4.2
- Chone Figgins: 4.2
- Jose Lopez: 0.3
- Jack Hannahan: -0.3
On to the hot corner, where, since we've made the call that Chone Figgins is likely to get the first crack at second base, we must conclude that Jose Lopez is likely to get the first crack at third base. There are a few complicating factors though. Of course, my projections hinge on whether Lopez can... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 03/15/10
7 Comments
Picking up from this thread: http://seattlesportsinsider.com/news/bat-first-shortstops
Also bouncing off the SI story, which should be read, but I think might emphasize the defense stuff (as the "flavor of the month") a little more than Z and Blengino actually do: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1166492/index...
One key quote from Blengino:
The Seattle front office's decision to focus on defense last winter was a pragmatic reaction to the market. "We had to figure out what we could do to get good quickly," says Blengino, 46, a former CPA who began as assistant... Read More
Posted by anonymous (not verified) on 03/13/10
1 Comments
I/O Seattle Times: Wakamatsu quoted on Doogie. He pitched better than the results showed, sez Wok. Broken bats, seeing-eye hits, an error behind him.
CRUNCH: No matter how much we 'net rats preach BABIP and HR/F* and S%, we're still about the runs, blast it... you'd think that we pure sabertistas would ignore runs, and mostly ignore hits, over any short span.
Jemanji has to modestly claim that he personally has little problem in actually ignoring short-terms runs and losses. This is because of rotisserie and Ron Shandler's Pure Quality Start (PQS) philosophy.
When guys offer me... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/13/10
3 Comments
=== Disbelief in the Crucible Dept. ===
Jim Caple, an ESPN writer who came from Seattle, was on the radio talking about Edgar's Hall of Fame candidacy.
Caple has a vote on HOF'ers, and he was asked if 30-odd percent would lead to a HOF election. He replied, definitely higher than I was expecting....
For a long time, sez Caple, I resisted Edgar's nomination. People would work on me, he sez, and no matter what they said, I stuck with "the Designated Hitter is a spot in the lineup. It's not a position."
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=== You Can Suppress Truth for a Day or a Year or a Decade, But... ===
Caple mann'd up... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/13/10
Q. Is it really appropriate for the Mariners to make 25-man roster decisions on Moore, Tui, Fister, Bard and White based on 30 days' performance?
A. Not appropriate; it's completely necessary. The greatest organizations in history gave away, or took away, jobs based on performance in March.
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Q. But we know what Josh Wilson hits. Why would a .425 spring change his destiny?
A. In that situation, certainly a good organization would not be fooled by the hot March. That is the kind of feebleminded mistake that the 1970's Mariners used to make -- they'd look at a 29-year-old meatball and... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/12/10
See also, Heard It On The X. Adair-able commentary from 3/10/10's Hot Stove 710.
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I/O Mauricio Robles: Asked which one pitcher stood out so far, Adair was on Robles instanter.
Thusly: Impressive talent, impressive maturity, has the whole package. Has a chance to be a very special pitcher.
Has a little Johann Santana in him: 92-96 mph, a real good changeup.
"Will he stick at starting pitcher?" Oh yeah.
CRUNCH: c-points G-Money. You think Santana is over-the-top from Adair?
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I/O Ryan Feierabend: Could pitch now, probably -- but coming off surgery, the budget is for 125 innings in the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/12/10
How ZZ got famous with early songs like that one, before they learned to stick to 12-bar blues and poppy IV-VII chords, you got me ... but then, how did Dr. D ever sign with ALTK Records waving a Young Frankenstein poster?
We heard quite a bit on the X this week. Jump over to KIRO 710, slam in the Mar. 10 archive, advance to about 9 minutes in. Shawn Kelley talking about starting.
I don't mind telling you, I regurgitated for joy. Well, okay, I stopped typing for a minute.
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I/O: Kelley reports that he went to Rick Adair and asked about starting. Adair goes, so, what are your thoughts... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/12/10
18 Comments
Remember what we do here. This is baseball chat, not Mahogany Row. :- ) You an' me don't decide what's best for the local ballclub.
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Q: Supposing, just covering all contingencies, that it became apparent that Matt Tuiasosopo were an AL cleanup hitter, right now? Then what?
A from KingCorran: Then Jack Wilson ends up on the bench in short order, and trading away Mr. Triunfel no longer causes ANYONE concern. :P
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R/X: If Matt Tuiasosopo could play a below-average shortstop, let's say -10 or -12 runs below the median in the AL, then a .270/.360/.500 bat would give us a whale of a club-... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/12/10
15 Comments
=== Wally Pipp dept. ===
For those of you who were born after the era of Super Mario Bros. ... in 1925, Wally Pipp was an aging, 32-year-old, MLB(TM)-entitled first baseman for the New York Yankees. He'd had some good years in his 20's, but had been mediocre for several years and at 32 was off to a slow start.
Stories vary as to whether Pipp went to Miller Huggins and asked for a "flu symptoms" day off, or whether Huggins wanted to shake things up. Seeing that the Yankees were 16 wins, 26 losses in the middle of Babe Ruth's prime, I'll take the second explanation.
Anyway, Lou Gehrig... Read More
Posted by SABR Matt on 03/12/10
1 Comments
TOTALS SO FAR:
REPLACEMENT LEVEL: 48.0 WCATCHERS: 2.4
- Adam Moore: 1.7
- Rob Johnson: 0.8
- Josh Bard / Eleizer Alfonzo: -0.1FIRST BASEMEN: 1.7
- Ryan Garko: 1.0
- Casey Kotchman: 0.5
- Mike Sweeney: 0.2
So it's on to second base. And we have a major problem here if we're going to make accurate projections (relatively speaking). We have no idea whether Chone Figgins or Jose Lopez is going to start at second or whether it's a little of both. And even more problematic...if Figgins is the second baseamn...we don't know how he'll do defensively. Or, for that matter, whether Figgins'... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/11/10
15 Comments
Shannon Drayer, whose entries this spring have been Baker-like in their attention to the crucial, broaches the subject of Shawn Kelley as a starting pitcher.
Needless to say, SSI is thrilled even with the discussion of such a thing. In the above article, Kelley says that he'd "be up for anything" and talks about starting in college. After the Aumont fiasco, what we wouldn't give to see a gifted pitcher moved in the right direction, towards more impact...
Shawn Kelley is a whale of a talented pitcher, one of the few in all the majors who can throw a 94 fastball with plus-plus command... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/11/10
8 Comments
For starters: when a crack M's analyst differs with us in a comment, we don't put it on the front page in a spirit of debate. What happens is that guys raise points that are so intriguing that we "elevate" the point, as they say in the corporate world.
Guys know they are free to come back at us. :- ) It's about baseball.
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Q. Sweeney wouldn't be a very good candidate to platoon with a LH bat. He hits righties better than he hits lefties. For his career, even.
A. Good point that Sweeney isn't a classic platoon hitter right now, as Ken Griffey Jr. certainly is, for example.
But: Law... Read More
Posted by SABR Matt on 03/11/10
35 Comments
TOTALS SO FAR:
REPLACEMENT: 48.0 W
CATCHERS: 2.4
Adam Moore: 1.7
Rob Johnson: 0.8
Josh Bard / Eleizer Alfonzo: -0.1
Now let's deal with the first base situation.
We have a complicating factor now that we can see Sweeney is still an outstanding hitter when he's fresh and the club is going to have to make a tough call regarding his roster candidacy. They're going to need to weigh the off-field contributions he makes, the possibility of his managing to stay healthy enough to produce all season, the needs of the pitching staff, and the possibly large upside with Ryan Garko, and it's probably... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/11/10
9 Comments
=== Chone On Crazy Diamond ===
Don Wakamatsu, again two steps ahead of us, perceiving an important thing that we did not.
Isn't it great, sez Skip, that when the shortstop and third baseman glom onto a two-bouncer and look over to 2B .... the mitt is facing them, asking for the ball.
It's fine to talk about double-play technique. But if you're there four strides ahead of the other guy, what does technique mean, compared to extra time? Very little.
...............
Figgins' crazy speed around the defensive infield is one of those things that creates Swagger, a sense of Contenderness. Bounce... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/11/10
14 Comments
=== Mike Sweeney ===
Two doubles off the best reliever in the AL, other than Brandon League. :- ) I seriously doubt that you could hit two doubles off Naftali Feliz. I also seriously doubt whether any other Mariner could do so, except Ichiro.
Seriously. Do you think Ryan Garko or Franklin Gutierrez could double twice in the same game off that animal?
............
It's not about a spring hot streak. It's about Mike Sweeney being a special hitter. Even in 2009, Sweeney was quick at the plate, quick and strong, with a real good eye.
We've been talking about the ability to hit the ball... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/11/10
13 Comments
=== Cliff Lee ===
From Day One, Cliff Lee has made noises about extending, that are a good one or two notches friendlier than we'd expected.
And this week, the quotes ramp it up, with the subtext like "if it doesn't work out to sign before the season" and "if I have to go to free agency, fine" and like that. Not exactly in those words, but that's the vibe.
Shannon Drayer, on her blog, taps what is in Lee's mind ... drumroll ... when you go to free agency, says Cliff, you commit to a team without knowing whether you'll like it there.
Am not sure why I never thought of it in exactly those... Read More
Posted by SABR Matt on 03/11/10
I've gotten a better look at the cards we have on the table...the Mariners have acquired a few extra pieces...and I think it would be appropriate to now re-examine where the team is statistically (using conservative projections for offensive and defensive wins). At each position, we'll break down the likely playing time pecking order assuming no catastrophic injuries (we will try to project for ordinary injury likelihood).
Le's start with the catchers:
ADAM MOORE: .740 (.265/.330/.410)
Moore scouts as an outstanding defensive receiver, but in my research of catching defense using PCA, I... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/10/10
9 Comments
That Lonnie chap can really light it up when he's feelin' it, and dig his hard data on Adam Moore.
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=== Weight and WAIT, dept. ===
Lonnie's hitting charts on Moore are comical, especially for a catcher of Moore's size and strength.
The charts brought back childhood images of Vince Lombardi chalk-talking a Power Sweep in the 1960's, with every X blocked inside a little semi-circle, two wavy lines indicating the seal inside and outside, and the runner advancing the football 80 yards on 1st-and-10.
In case you're wondering whether every ballplayer's scatterchart looks as randomly-peppered... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/09/10
10 Comments
=== Doogie ===
It says on LL that despite Fister's three runs earned, and reportedly "nervous" demeanor, that actually Fister's BIP results were good. He gave up one hard-hit ball, four popups, and two grounders.
Sully e-called the game, it says here, and in the 12:29 and 12:55 comments, I figured out that I assumed Fister's start all wrong.
So, that's cool. GL reminds that Fister isn't on as short a list as I fear he is ... it's hard to remember the last time I rooted this hard for a fringe guy ... but still. If his first two early-March games had (1) five strikeouts in 2 IP and (2)... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/09/10
7 Comments
=== Good Guys Wear Teal ===
Good Guy Sports has this article up, asking one of SSI's favorite questions, and doing the legwork for all of us. Kewl read, guys.
One thing that SSI has never exactly clarified (and that the authors at GGS don't emphasize one way or other) is, when Bill James asks "Can you win your next pennant with this player?," of course he's not asking it expecting to go 17-for-17 down the roster.
CYWYNPWTP, in baseball, is not like spinning a bike-combo lock, where you need to get six numbers right before you can ride. Nobody has the player they want at every position. ... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/09/10
14 Comments
=== Doug Fister, Fizzler ===
First, the excuse: with men on 1B and 2B first inning, Fister induced a DP grounder to Jose Lopez at 3B, who whipped it over to Dustin Ackley ... who dropped the ball. Two guys on the infield you're experimenting with -- you don't have your battle-hardened troops behind him -- and the pitcher you're experimenting with, also.
Wakamatsu complained that Fister looked "nervous" during the game. Fister is known for poise -- remember his debut? -- but if you're a pitcher, an infield botching the key DP ball is going to rattle you. Tell me that the 3rd-year Felix... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/09/10
Keep in mind that any given player might fizzle-and-sizzle back and forth across the net a bunch of times. We're just day tradin'.
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=== Eric Byrnes, Fizzler? ===
Scratched! from the lineup due to flu. In early March. LOL.
I'm not burying the guy of course, but if 'flu' meant "too hung over to play baseball at noon when trying to make a baseball team," my knee-jerk reaction would be "alcoholic."
I'm not saying that he was drunk, of course. But in the baseball dictionary, the primary definition of "flu" is "hung over." We're just saying we certainly hope this is one of the secondary... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 03/09/10
1 Comments
== 7 ==
Seems to me that the pitching staff starts with seven guys who have established MLB track records and ought to be healthy. Write them in with ink:
Rotation:
1. Felix
2. Lee
3. RRS
Pen:
4. Aardsma
5. League
6. Lowe
7. Kelley
== 2 ==
Then there are two guys with established MLB track records who may not be healthy, but, assuming a return to health on the established and expected course, will fit right back into the staff. Pencil them in:
Rotation:
1. Bedard
Pen:
2. White
== Grab bag ==
Then, WITH EXCEPTIONS, there's a pretty sharp drop down to the "grab bag" of remaining options.... Read More
Posted by Sandy on 03/08/10
9 Comments
Brooks Conrad is a journeyman minor leaguer. HE was drafted (8th round), by Houston back in 2001 as a second baseman.
He hit .819 in low A ball that year.
He hit .845 in A ball in 2002 (age 22)
He hit .768 between A and high A in 2003
He hit .842, .822, .868 the next three seasons, as he moved up to AAA.
Having hit .868 with 40 doubles, 15 triples and 24 HRs, 94-RBI and 100 runs scored in AAA at Round Rock, he returned to AAA in 2007. He didn't even get a September callup.
He swooned to .725 in 2007 (age 27) - I'm guessing understandably depressed that he was still in Round Rock.... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/06/10
8 Comments
=== Controlling the Bottom Half of the Inning ===
I've always had a (not entirely justified) bias toward getting the best batter-pitcher matchups from the offensive side of the scorecard, as opposed to using four bullpen switches a game to get them.
I'd prefer to (1) counter Jon Lester with Mike Sweeney, Ryan Garko and Eric Byrnes than hope to (2) get my 2nd LOOGY into the middle of a 7th-inning game situation.
I think that the bias towards controlling the top half of the inning has some of its roots in passivity, whereas the attempt to use your lineup to gain percentages is more of an... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/05/10
7 Comments
=== Platform ===
The mini-chat-board-index in the sidebar rocks.
Under previous D-O-V and SSI iterations, the articles looked fine, but I had a little trouble carrying on conversations. Especially multiple conversations.
Now, the sidebar threads cycle to the top when commented/bumped, just like at (say) Mariner Central. And one thing I've not seen before, is a snippet-lead of the poster's comment on each line, in readable fashion, no less. So in the right sidebar, I can scan 8-10 conversations in a few seconds, and frictionlessly jump into whichever one.
You like... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/05/10
=== ProBall NW ===
Another sol-eed article up at ProBallNW, this one covering the handful of interesting SP prospects in the system.
Jon seems to peg the M's pitching resources as being at a low ebb. In this, BaseballHQ sees and raises, calling the M's pitching system absolutely the #30 in baseball.
SSI won't argue. Any given org should have a couple-three Chris Tillman, RRS types in the upper minors, ready to compete at least for an ML job. The M's have zero.
Which, I suppose, extenuates Jack Zduriencik picking Detroit's package on Washburn "because we got a pitcher who could help... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/04/10
5 Comments
Had some typing to do, so slapped on Geoff Baker Live! in the background. In a 60-minute riff, I counted 14 points that hadn't occurred to me in quite the way that Geoffy made them.
Gotta love that ratio. You've gotta go through 60 SSI posts -- a full weekend's worth -- to get to 14 things worth reading. He did it in 60 minutes.
Radio / podcast / similar aren't too tough if you are working with a straight man who has a set of talking points, gives you a breath of air for 5-10 seconds every minute or two, to get your thoughts wound around the spool again.
To riff solo for 60 consecutive... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/04/10
5 Comments
=== Fizzler: Jason Vargas ===
I/O: Baker praises Vargas' two solid innings, and offhandedly reports that Wakamatsu doesn't want Vargas throwing his curve ball much. Wok wants Vargas to stick with his FB and change.
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CRUNCH: Uh-oh. That means that Wok thinks Vargas has a howler curve ball.
Any ballplayer will tell you that a lazy (not even hanging; just sloppy) curve ball is the easiest pitch to hit in baseball. Once we heard a lefty hitter tell us that he loved facing lefties (at his level) because they threw him get-it-over curve balls...
Vargas had a terrible platoon differential... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/04/10
30 Comments
It's one thing to trade for a good player. It's a different thing to trade for a great player.
Trading for Jered Weaver or Carlos Pena would be fine. Trading for Cliff Lee or Adrian Gonzalez is a little different thing.
Adrian Gonzalez is a great ballplayer, a 100-walk slugger, plus on defense, a young, lefty Edgar Martinez at the plate and a healthy, 155-game John Olerud comp with the glove. Don't be distracted by details. That's free advice. :- )
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=== SIZZLER: Adrian Gonzalez ===
I/O: A coupla different times, Baker sigggggghs and moans over how many times the M's play the Padres... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/04/10
4 Comments
Note well that any given ballplayer might Sizzle three times and Fizzle four, before the spring is over. We're just day-trading here.
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=== SIZZLER: Eric Byrnes ===
I/O: Baker reports that Byrnes looks peppy on the field -- diving after one gapper, starting the Cactus League in CF for the M's, stealing 3B, popping up and continuing on home after a groundball gets through, that kind of thing.
The legs look good, we hear, and that's a good thing - because - Byrnes will make the team, if at all, based on gusto, energy, spark, and ... running fast.
Therefore Byrnes wants to show the... Read More
Posted by anonymous (not verified) on 03/03/10
1 Comments
I saw an item in tomorrow's NY Times on the hometown nine and thought I'd pass on some things for general consumption. The article's by Tyler Kepner, who I believe was the P-I's Mariners beat writer some years back. He focuses on the upside: the headline's "Optimistic Mariners Ready for Run at Angels."
A quote from Milton Bradley: “Any time I’ve had a problem anywhere, it’s because I’ve been disrespected. And I will not be disrespected by anyone.”
It seems to me the problem is that Bradley's personality simply doesn't go with his profession: ballplayers are routine targets of "disrespect"... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/02/10
4 Comments
Enough noodling around MLBTradeRumors.com. We're looking right down the barrel of 200 separate and distinct baseball games, brethren. Life is good.
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=== Fister & Vargas ===
This winter, there's been a lot of talk about the M's fantastic depth at starting pitcher. SSI actually sees the M's as going 3.5 deep -- maybe 3 deep if you count RRS as 0.5 along with Doogie Fister's 0.5.
To be sure, the park and defense give any gutsy pitcher a good shot at a sub-4 ERA, but in terms of pitchers who are good all by their ownselves... hm.
The noises we've heard seem to slot the rotation this... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/02/10
15 Comments
Thanks to Geoff Baker for the videos. (Sorry, we're transitioning the text editors, so no formatting or links for a coupla days).
Michael Pineda, an SSI fave since his K/BB went bonkers last year, is no secret any more. BaseballHQ's minors crew has Pineda as the only highly-esteemed pitching prospect in the M's system; if I recall correctly, Baseball America also has Pineda easily the M's top-ranked pitcher.
This shouldn't deceive M's fans that scouts are Johnny-come-lately on Pineda; you can find raves going back 2+ years that sell Pineda as a future Opening Day starter in the majors. "... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/02/10
2 Comments
Kudos to Fett for his tremendous index of Saber-101 articles, and kudos to Lookout Landing and others for the articles themselves. :- )
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Q: It just seems like a lot of people at SSI/MC are anti-UZR.
Once you really fully understand it, then you can pick apart at its many weaknesses.
I think its a valuable data point, though I agree with you and Sandy that you'd be nuts to rely on it as your only data point to evaluate D. Thats basically the same thing as relying on ERA to evaluate pitching or on OBP with hitting.
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A. I'm sorry that SSI has generated an impression... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/02/10
8 Comments
Jon with a suggestion deserving of its own thread...
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I/O: A better target for Jose Lopez (than San Diego) might be Houston, with Lance Berkman being the prize. Berkman's value isn't near Gonzo's, so Lopez could definitely take up the bulk of the value going their way, and Lopez is a great fit for their ballpark and they really need a 2B or a 3B for next year. Having him for only 2 years shouldn't be as big a deal for them because they always think they're contending.
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CRUNCH: Berkman gets $14.5m this year with a $15m option for next -- beyond that, if... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/02/10
Not all sporting events involve Pascal's Triangle as strongly as Balls In Play (BIP's) involve it. If you can think of a sporting event that involves Pascal's Triangle more strongly than do BIP's, let me know. That's not a challenge. I'd like to hear some suggestions.
Very nice to check in to a new San-Man byline... would that we could have one every morning...
Very interesting and constructive article, in which Dr. D will of course zero in on the elements on which he differs :- )
Bear in mind, please, that this article isn't a direct response to Sandy's, which still holds good. It's a... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/02/10
18 Comments
I think sabermetricians have to first come to grips with this concept -- that certain sporting activities trust to luck, much more than others do -- for the conversation to move forward smoothly. As it is, the operating assumption :- ) seems to be that every athletic task should inherently involve the same degree of luck.
Experience should lead us to expect that every athletic task requires a different, sometimes much different, element of luck.
Pascal's Triangle comes strongly into play when soccer and hockey players are shooting at goal -- and very strongly into play when batted ground... Read More
Posted by Sandy on 03/02/10
BIPA is recognized and accepted as a volatile hitting stat, where the major year-to-year variations are ASSUMED to be luck.
DER/UZR each specifically attempt to quantify the specific arena of balls-in-play. The assumption when measuring these is that the results here are SKILL.
The problem here is that it doesn't seem imperically obvious that measuring something for offense should be classified as luck, while measuring it as defense should be classified as skill. This, I believe, is one (of many) reasons that defensive analysis is so fraught with peril.
For the most part - the reality in... Read More