April 2010
Posted by jemanji on 04/30/10
3 Comments
=== Shake It Off, Dept. ===
Friday's loss ranked slightly below getting "questioned" by the baddies in Orwell's 1984. But let's keep it in perspective. Suppose that Monday I offered you a trade for Adrian Gonzalez and a loss that night in extras. Where would the day rank on a scale of 1-10?
The M's are one night's play out of clear first by themselves.
They have Felix tomorrow.
And they have Cliff Lee every five days.
They're 3-5 in one-run games, but you can go ahead and bet 5-5 the next ten such. I am STOKED.
Having had a chance to examine Mr. Lee fine-tooth, a few crib notes... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/30/10
1 Comments
=== Champeen, Dept. ===
Taro, who won the aggregate SSI roto championship in 2008, warned this winter that Colby Lewis was his Pick of the Season:
Colby Lewis is potentially the biggest bargain this offseason. Its interesting how little attention this guy is getting even though hes been one of the most dominant NPB pitchers over the past 2 years despite pitching in that bandbox in Hiroshima.
A cutter and tightened command have led to his breakout seasons...
I wonder where the other 29 teams were on this? Lewis put up comparable and even slightly better numbers than what Matsuzaka had... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/30/10
6 Comments
NOWWWW Dr. D gets it. :- )
If we could only squeeze a little more efficiency out of our 4-man bench and out of our batting order .... why, slap me silly, we'd win the 1-run games. And the 80 OPS+ Moneyball-UZR team would work just peachy.
Do I got that right?
This weekend, we suddenly that 1-run records are driven by skill, particularly by roster flexibility, and not by luck? Do we got that right?
In our torment, we're going senile and reverting to gradeschool, baseball-card managing. I mean that in a good way. The onset of senility is measured in years or months for Dr. D now... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/30/10
5 Comments
=== Strategy? or Execution? in the 11th, Dept. ===
Again in the 11th. Ichiro and Figgins get on -- two on, 0 out, the acrid smell of death in the air for the stRangers.
Frankin Gutierrez, like Kotchman a blog darling, has the key AB this inning. He first fails to get a bunt down, and then he strikes out. The run expectancy drops from 1.6 to less than 1 after Gutierrez' whiff.
Is Gutierrez brought up in the postgame cyber-catharsis? No, he's got an exemption. Look at the guys who feasibly could be part of the problem...
Jose Lopez is the guy who needs to be moved in the order. Why,... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 04/30/10
4 Comments
No power in the majors? True, so far.
But potential power is brewing up nicely in the minors -- just don't expect it in Seattle anytime soon.
AA: Carlos Peguero. 23-yr-old, 6-5, 210, LH, Dominican corner OF prospect.
Ridiculous High Desert stat #1 -- 67 singles, 66 extra base hits (21 dbl. 14 tpl, 31 HR)
Ridiculous High Desert stat #2 -- 172 K in 491 ABs .971 OPS. Then he missed all of 09 with injuries.
Now he's back and is getting right into the same groove. Last night he homered and doubled for 12 XBH in 21 games. His 9:23 BB:K ratio isn't quite the 19:24 he put up in Everett two... Read More
Posted by anonymous (not verified) on 04/29/10
9 Comments
OK. I was wrong (so far) on Tui. He still needs to be semi-regular, but I will admit he hasn't made it impossible for W to keep him off the field. 400 PA's was my goal for him. I'll stick by it. I think it may not happen. Drats!
But....Despite much early hype from some corners, we Kotchman-doubters weren't quite wrong to this point. Casey has been Casey.
He's hitting right at his career average (.264/.269) and his OBP is within a hair of his career number (.333/.337), as well. His BABIP is a touch low, but basically on track, too (.258/.276). His LD's are up a bit (ergo the doubles... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/28/10
7 Comments
=== Dowwwnnn Towwnnnn ===
The M's with 11 more hits today, and they had 11 additional fly-ball outs. Guess how many went over the fence.
Nine homers in 22 games leaves them on pace for 66, full season. Paul Konerko has one less homer, 8, than the 14 Mariners' players have as a group. This won't work.
The M's are shaking out into something like their expected profile, with a 124 ERA+ and a 82 OPS+. If you could get that OPS+ to, say, 93, you'd have a shot.
But if you hit 66 homers, that OPS won't be 93. If you hit 100, it won't be, either. The M's don't need... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/28/10
2 Comments
=== Ryan Rowland-Smith ===
RRS has an amazingly smooth BABIP split for his career. These refer to his first, second, and (gakk) third times through a lineup:
PA #1 in game - .221 BABIP
PA #2 in game - .243 BABIP
PA #3 in game - .289 BABIP
PA #4 in game - .389 BABIP
Total - .268 BABIP (!)
Also bear in mind this career split:
Pitch 51-75: 79 OPS+ (.369 slugging)
Pitch 76-100: 132 OPS+ (.503 slugging)
That's not after 100 pitches. It's after 75 pitches. Also bear in mind this career "split":
7th inning = .381 / .418 / .591
Ty Cobb = .366 / .433 / .532
After two trips through the mighty KC... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/28/10
=== Texasleaguers.com ===
In 2009, we used Dan Brooks' wonderful site for same-day pitchFX data. I guess MLB.com makes the raw data available to the public, and Brooks' site was one of the first to crawl over daily and format the data in a readable fashion.
Texasleaguers.com, right now, is an even better mousetrap. It just takes a few seconds to line up four or five pitchers so that you can compare their pitch trajectories, strike zone scattercharts, etc.
:standing O:
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=== Swerveball Dept. ===
SSI did this for the four pitchers at the back of the M's rotation, and by the time we... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/28/10
4 Comments
=== Spin Rate ===
Also impressive is the RPM that Fister gets relative to these other pitchers:
2,200 - Ryan Rowland-Smith
2,500 - Ian Snell (with the 4-seamer that generates less air resistance)
2,250 - Jason Vargas
2,500 - Doug Fister
2,100 - Joel Pineiro (on the "sinker")
In other words, Fister is getting 15% more hair on his 2-seam fastball than RRS and Vargas are -- and 20% more spin RPM than super-swerveballer Joel Pineiro is. In fact, Doug Fister is getting as much spin on his 2-seamer as other pitchers get on their 4-seamers.
It's not hard to guess the reason. Assuming that... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/28/10
6 Comments
=== Wash Burned ===
What was it, 5 weeks or 6? that we mercilessly excoriated the M's for refusing to kick $4-5M to Jarrod Washburn.
All through March, certainly, and then the first trip-and-a-half through the rotation. Two wins, six losses, and the back of the rotation looked like this.
SPRING TRAINING
Snell: 1-4, 7.16 ERA, albeit with a nice CTL using get-me-over fastballs
Rowland-Smith: 0-2, 6.26 ERA, albeit with a nice CTL (see above)
Fister: 0-3, 6.94, and injured
Vargas: okay, he did pretty good (1-1, 2.83), but with dubious stuff
Then do yer remember that first trip-and-a-half... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 04/28/10
7 Comments
Third straight time going 6.0 IP and 2 or fewer ER.
Season line: 21.1 IP, 1.69 ERA, 18 H, 4 ER, 1 HR, 5 BB, 22 K.
Meanwhile, Paredes gave up his first walk, but went 1.1 IP with 0 ER, and Fields pitched the 9th with 2 K. Varvaro had been closing, but now it looks like they've switched to Fields.
Shortstop fever!
Carlos Triunfel is playing everyday at short, and is on a tear.
Last 7 games: 27 AB, 11 H, 2 HR, 1 BB, 4 K for .407/.429/.630 during that stretch. Hope it's a corner-turning.
And down in Clinton, Nick Franklin was supposed to (1) split time with Gabriel Noriega at SS and (2) hit... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/27/10
1 Comments
=== Mark Lowe ===
Came in, bottom of the 8th, the M's just having taken a 3-2 lead. First fastball clocked a big red 98 mph. And it looked it. The amount of time the ball was in the air, on TV, looked like a Nolan Ryan-, Randy Johnson-class FB to us...
We had a good friend once tell us his theory that there is a point at which even ML hitters can't really "hit" a fastball the way they usually do. He meant, sure, they can make contact sometimes on a 100 fastball, but they do it by using tricks, "timing" the bat etc, and if you could gather the stats on 100 fastballs, you'd see woeful AVG... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/27/10
At the Times, they have a reporter who has been around the block a few times, who knows the American League, who knows how things are done in Seattle and how they're done out of Seattle.
One of the things I enjoy most about Geoffy's analysis is that he has the East Coast feel for the game, a sense for turning points, a feel for strategic crises, a 30,000-foot perspective. The city will get six inches of snow and wring its hands about the "snowstorm" and Geoffy will roll his eyes and tell us how big cities handle 'em... just a f'r instance. Seattle is a long ways from other major... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/27/10
12 Comments
=== Scorecard ===
Hey, you keep one in golf, so why not in virtual baseball :- ) ... put SSI down for a 3 on this hole, kiddies...
The 25 men that the Mariners put on the Opening Day roster were SSI-sanctioned all the way, and we all know how much the M's care about that :- /
The two rook catchers, the Fister-nator, Mike Sweeney, Tuiasosopo, the early take on the 5-man bullpen, the decision to bring back Erik Bedard, the decision to flip Lopez and Figgins, the decision to put a bat rather than a glove in LF, etc .... only twice this winter did the M's zig where SSI zagged:
Ian Snell
Casey... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/27/10
One of the most difficult things to get used to, in tournament chess, is the adjustment to a sudden change in the nature of the game.
Two masters will be sitting there, calculating and untangling long variations in a closed game with 8 pawns a side and White on top. Suddenly one of the players overlooks a move, the game opens up .... and it may suddenly occur that Black is better (with the right to attack). If two non-masters are playing, both will then play the next three moves under the impression that White is better and Black should defend...
It's simply hard to shake off the... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 04/27/10
4 Comments
Mauricio Robles went 6.0 IP with 1 hit (3 BB and 3 K) for the mighty D-Jaxx (maybe not so mighty, they're 8-10) as they shut down the Mobile Bay Bears last night.
Anthony Varvaro was next, going 2.0 IP with 5 more K and no hits. Then Josh Fields went the final frame and got two more K.
A strong recovery for Robles, who gave up 3 ER on 5 H and 2 BB in 3.2 IP his last start.
Varvaro has an amazing 15 K in 8.2 IP, but struggles with control (4 BB in 1.0 IP on 4/19). He's at 15.6 K/9 and 8.3 BB/9. Crazy, but last year he was 10.6 K/9 and 7.3 BB/9 in 62.0 IP, so he's not really out of line... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/24/10
14 Comments
Q. What does Wakamatsu mean, Fister has "angles" on his fastball?
A. In 1968, the mound was legally up to 15 inches high. Bob Gibson's 1.12 ERA started to give even purists a just-ate-a-whole-pecan-pie feeling. He threw 13 shutouts that year, and the rest of them must have been 1-run complete games. A veritable Doug Fister.....
The league itself had an ERA of 2.99. Think about that. A mediocre pitcher went out there and finished with a 2+ ERA.
The next year, they lowered the mound from 15 inches to 10 ... and ERA's went up fully 20%, to 3.59. The year after it was 4.... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/24/10
Q. So the 6'8" height and overhand delivery means Fister has some sort of game-changing advantage?
A. Nah, it simply explains what Wok is saying: that Fister has good angles, and that he "gets out in the strike zone." Time to go on a BABIP watch:
2009 - .277
2010 - .241
Normal - .300
You're talking about four games, naturally. It's not a question of declaring victory, though we would think all M's fans would be giddy about doing that. It's a question of watching to see whether this "angles" and BABIP factor has legs. It's a pretty fresh take on a pitcher, if you ask jemanji... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/24/10
5 Comments
Q. What do the odds flicker over to at this point on the Big Board?
A. I'd say about 75% that he's going to be around a 100 ERA+ this year, wouldn't you? And let's gingerly slide it to 30% that he's going to be an impact pitcher.
He's going to have a game where he gives up three dingers, and soon. :- ) But the question is still going to be: how consistently can he take that "A" command out there.
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Q. Can he get enough strikeouts, though?
A. Do recall that pitchers get strikeouts on their offspeed stuff. With 80% fastballs thrown, the catchers aren't giving Fister a fighting chance... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/24/10
6 Comments
=== Takin' the Good With the Bad ===
I had cheerfully grabbed Aardsma's first 5-6 saves and laughed all the way to Interurban Avenue, so I'm not going to throw a snit fit now.
Aardsma never claimed to be a Prime Time, $10M closer and 38-for-42 again this season will be just fine.
...............
What did make Dr. D smile was the postgame quotes, that Aardsma "had left two fastballs up." Needless to say, (1) Aardsma strikes guys out because he throws fastballs up. Also, (2) he has very little control as to whether the pitch is up or down anyway.
His postgame comments should be read simply... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 04/23/10
1 Comments
Should there be anyone out there who was saying "let's not get too excited over a guy who's never pitched above A ball" -- well, Michael Pineda is not exactly struggling with the transition to AA:
4/12 -- 3.1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 6 K
4/17 -- 6.0 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K
Last night -- 6.0 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K
Or, 1.76 ERA, 0.6 HR/9, 2.3 BB/9, 10.6 K/9
He's 21, seems to be healthy, and producing everything you ask for in AA. You can't rule out seeing him in Seattle before the year is over.
Also of note: Ackley dropped down from leadoff, where he was struggling, to #3 for the last three... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/22/10
17 Comments
=== Manny Happy Returns dept. ===
In 2010, Red Sox have a lot less offense than they usually throw out there.
A few years back, they had Manny, Ortiz, and a huge supporting cast. Last year, they had Jason Bay, a 101-OPS David Ortiz, and Kevin Youkilis trying to pick up the slack.
Now Bay is gone also, as are the team OPS+ of their glory days. Their team OPS+ by era:
2003-04 ... 110-118
2005-09 ... 105
2010 ... 104 so far, which will drop, according to Dr. D
Remember that those runs are adjusted for glorious Fenway Park: last year the Sox were #2 in OBP and #2 in SLG with a 105 OPS... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/22/10
6 Comments
Had to 'promote' this idea just 'cause it deserves traction.
David Segui's ML career
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=== Taro ===
Wak mentioned that Kotchman has made some mechanical changes to his swing this year (shortening his swing). Is this the work of Eliot? Have they managed to quicken what was once a slow bat?
I honestly haven't watched many games recently, but was wondering if anybody could point out the specific changes that were made.
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=== jemanji ===
He's pretty quick, admittedly.
Shortening the swing would dovetail with the fact that he's been able to scoop low fastballs better. As mentioned... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/22/10
San-Man with his usual contrarian freshness. Not often that we debate lately, but since our good bud Sandy took his 15 minutes, I guess we'll shuffle on up for our 15. :- )
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I/O: While I think a lefty goes to the pen with Lee's arrival (cause the pen has no lefty). I'd agree that *TODAY* Snell is likely to follow when Bedard arrives. Except, Bedard doesn't arrive today. So, I think any of the bottom three could play themselves out of a job between now and B-Day.
CRUNCH: Ya, and this is exactly what the Mariners themselves are saying right now. They want to wait until the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/22/10
10 Comments
I/O: Doesn't matter -- RRS, Snell, Fister, Vargas. They all have the same basic reality -- either too little data for comfortable assessment - *OR* -- too much contradictory data.
CRUNCH: Agree with Sandy and with every other M's fan: individually these guys are all very questionable bets. If your season were riding on Jason Vargas' back, you'd be in big trouble.
As a FIELD -- draw 5 to make 2 -- and with the M's superb coaching staff, the bet isn't nearly as funky, IMHO.
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I/O: If you're gonna have a bunch of cheap nobody BOR guys -- you *NEED* to keep a large supply on... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/22/10
Interesting thread at Mariner Central, wondering what the chances are that Lopez' offensive woes could proliferate. Huindekmi notes that Jose started 2009 with a low AVG, but that in 2010 the difference is Lopez' SLG. He's batting .246 and his SLG is... wait for it ... .262.
Lopez' simple offensive game has been bulletproof since he was 16 years of age, which is why Pat Gillick made him one of a couple of untouchables (along with Felix and Travis Blackley) back when JLo was 17 and Gillick was trying to improve a 116-loss team. (Gillick did make efforts to protect the farm systems... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/22/10
10 Comments
SSI Magic 8 Ball had guessed that the moment Lopez played an ML reg-season game at third, he'd never in his career see another game at 2B. Except as a backup. That looks like a given now.
Now that Jose Lopez is going to be a Gold Glove candidate at 3B, rather than a dubious 2B, his value goes way up.
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=== Comparables ===
As JLo settles into 3B as a plus glove and a .280, 25-homer, 90-RBI bat, one of his natural comparables becomes.... Adrian Beltre! Beltre also had several years as a 20-25 homer, 90 RBI, low-OBP hitter. He wasn't as good a hitter as Lopez is, but was very similar... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/21/10
21 Comments
=== Looking Out for a Soft Landing ===
At fangraphs.com > Standup Comedy, the league leaders feature David Letterman, Jeff Sullivan and two or three other guys. Seems Jeffy can't go more than a paragraph without a razor-sharp witticism :- )
[Cliff Lee is] on pace to return on May 2nd or - in a more unlikely scenario - on April 30th. When asked who would come out of the rotation to make room, Wak said they are looking at "a number of options." That number is four.
HEH! Reminds me of Jim Lampley covering yacht racing. He read some 3x5 card, "The S.S. Neurotic is capable of... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/21/10
13 Comments
=== Try It Another Way ===
The control ratios for the M's pitchers in their April reg-season auditions, 2:1 being acceptable:
5.3 - Jason Vargas
2.2 - Doug Fister
1.0 - Ian Snell
0.5 - RRS
Or, the ERA+:
100 - Vargas
277 - Fister
77 - Snell
88 - RRS
SSI realizes that three-four starts are not as many as you'd like. But! What did you have March and April for, if the wrong guys are going to win the competition and then get pole-axed anyway?
So forgetting this March and April, here are their Shandlerian Base Performance Values (BPV's) from 2009, heavily weighting K, BB, and HR. A BPV of... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 04/21/10
12 Comments
Game balls for this week:
MLB front office: for flat-out deep-sixing the Lee suspension (not shortening or softening or anything -- just poof! it's gone! -- do they ever do that?)
MLB schedule-makers: for putting Baltimore on there during the "let's-hope-we-can-tread-water-until-Lee-and-Bedard-can-pitch" period (if the Sacramento River Cats were on the schedule, we wouldn't need Lee or Bedard to pitch to them, either)
Fister and Vargas: for deciding to have their "everyone-who-is-average-has-to-be-above-average-part-of-the-time-to-make-the-math-work-...-right?-...-right??" moments also during... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/20/10
5 Comments
MtGrizzly with an excellent link:*
Here's what Baltimore manager Dave Trembley said:
"We had trouble with him because he nibbles and locates on both sides of the plate and up and down. He shows you a lot of stuff, nothing overpowering. He pitches around the plate very well. He looks like he's going to give you some hittable pitches and then they're not real good pitches.
It looks like every at-bat, he gives you one decent one, but then he locates and changes speed. He nibbles on both sides of the plate, moves the ball around, changes speeds and changes eye levels.''
Thanks for the link... Read More
Posted by Sandy on 04/19/10
7 Comments
Doc: (paraphrased) "Kotchman is a bum with a girlie-man swing whose only real value on a major league roster would be as a JT Snow type backup to any random 1B who can actually hit."
After 14 games: .286/.367/.595 (.963) -- 3-HRs, 12-RBI --- 163 OPS+
Okay - it's early. But really -- how many guys EVER lead their team in HRs *AND* fewest strikeouts - even two weeks in? Four doubles, three dingers, six walks -- and a measly four Ks all season. Ichiro has 5. Tui has 5 in NINE (9) plate appearances!
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Sandy: "Fister is just a younger, worser version of Silva. Minor leaguers were... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/19/10
=== Brad Bergeson ===
Came in sporting an 11.74 ERA. The M's increased it for him.
Let's not forget, though, that the M's score-by-innings went 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 or something like that, and the 7 would have been a 1 except that Wigginton mangled a pregame-fungo ball that would have ended the third inning.
Wigginton pulls that grounder into his belly button, sets, and flips to second, the ball then beats JLo to first by six steps, and Doogie would have had to win 1-0.
............
I'm just saying; it's not like the M's didn't have 7 singles, 4 doubles, and a homer. But as a fan, my... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/19/10
1 Comments
=== Junior ===
My son asked if every AB this season is going to result in a roller to second base.
Well, it's not like this is a new phenomenon. They shift him for a reason. (His 2-RBI knock, they couldn't shift him, because the bases were loaded.)
He believes in getting the bat out in front of home plate. "There's no money, no production back there" when the bat is behind the plate. I wish he'd reconsider this attitude. These days, he just has to cheat too blinkin' much to get the bat in front of the plate on every single pitch.
If I were in his shoes, I'd take the ball up the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/19/10
3 Comments
... as you know, Ah-nold's greatest acting performance was in Hercules Goes Bananas. He played a two-legged juggernaut who, fish-out-of-water-formula full on, could not buy the first clue as to what was going on around him.
He asked Nick Markakis?, was it? in the back alley, "Are you great evil?" to which Markakis sinisterly laughed, "Baby, I'm the greatest..."
Not sure Doogie knows where he is yet, and don't tell 'im...
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Q. So this is what SSI expected?
A. Brings to mind Bill Swift, who in 1990 just started suddenly running 1+ ERA's for two or three years. Somebody asked... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/19/10
5 Comments
Q. How likely that, over the course of two-three years, let's say, Fister could give more than the 100-110 ERA+ that SSI hoped for?
A. After two performances like that from a guy who is essentially a rookie, it's fair to wonder about upside...
Shandler's magic number for guys like Doogie is 5.6 strikeouts per nine. A finesse, very low-BB pitcher, can be a legitimate star in the big leagues once he goes over 5.6 per nine. Shandler's basing this on thousands of almanac scans.
So, stipulated that a low-BB Fister would either need to get up to the 5.6 - 6.0 strikeout level ... or ... to be... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/19/10
1 Comments
Q. Ready to pay up?
A. Cash your winning tickets at the All-Star Break or later. :- )
I mean, Kotchman hit .320/.407/.507 in July 2009... Juan Rivera hit .360/.410/.600 in July last year. You going to anoint him as being the next Joe Mauer?
Any 100 OPS+ hitter is going to have 30-day periods that are at All-Star level. Kotchman has had 14 good games. That's wonderful, but does it mean the case is sol-ved, Inspector? Course not.
Two full months of 130 OPS+ would start to be suggestive. Would that prove the point? Check Rivera's June-July 2009. Hitters get hot.
If you'd watched... Read More
Posted by anonymous (not verified) on 04/19/10
Doogie Fister....we are not worthy!
Felix and Fister and pray for a blister strikes again!
And...er...you see...I mean....it's this way....I might have been just a bit off base in being quite critical of Kotchman. I still think he regresses to his less than impressive mean....but he is currently proving me rather wrong. There, I said it.
He's hot. Hotter than I thought he had in him.
Guti's mean, BTW, keeps going up.
And a question for Doc and the SSI brains.
What is your prediction for the M's first roster move? Junior DLed?
It may be the only one that makes sense.
For you on the... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 04/19/10
5 Comments
I may read too much into things like this, but that's what my real job entails:
"If Griff didn't think we had an opportunity to win this year, he wouldn't have come back," Wakamatsu said before the Mariners' 4-2 loss to Detroit. "So it's a matter of how his knee feels. We had a little bit in spring training where it flared up, but we feel like we have a handle on that."
This strikes me as laying down the foundation for Chuck Armstrong to negotiate a trip to the 60-day DL to make sure we get that knee right. Then a September return so that the civic leaders of Anahiem and Oakland and... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/18/10
==== Pennant Race Baseball ===
HOW DID THE TIGERS GET MAX SCHERZER? You can't have him, and Verlander, and Bonderman. That's unpossible.
It's also unpossible that we drew all three in a three-gamer. And it's anti-possible that we'd get two "hard" wins in such a series.
Between Opening Day and the 8th inning of Doogie's start, the Mariners scored approximately 0 "hard" runs. Since then, [hard runs] = [total runs]
"Soft" runs are the type that the Mariners scored between 1977 and 1988: somebody happens to get on base, and then the ball drops softly on the outfield grass by... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/18/10
=== Ian Snell ===
Pitching tough, pitching focused, has an idea out there. Giving it all he's got, but... cannot, at this point, revise SSI's offseason power ranking that has him well out of the org top 5.
8 walks against 8 strikeouts this season, bringing his Mariner (and AL) total to 91 walks and 97 strikeouts. If you just joined us, there is no such thing* as an AL pitcher that sustains success on CTL ratios like that. The hitters are just owning too much of the strike zone.
*maybe a couple of 3:1 groundball types.
............
You're not a Shandlerite and you don't have a conditioned... Read More
Posted by malcontent on 04/18/10
16 Comments
In all the hooplah around Franklin Gutierrez' fantastic start, Casey Kotchman has been snubbed. Why, the answer is pretty simple, the results haven't been nearly so pretty, but the process has been for Kotchman has actually been better in a lot of ways.
Now, I'm not going to compare them, they're different, that's fine, I just want to point out some of the stuff that Casey's looking great at so far. First up, batted ball profile. After today, Kotchman's batted ball profile (per fangraphs) looks like this: 40%GB/37%FB/23%LD/15%HR-FB(Baseball-Reference has him at 25%LD before today,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/17/10
6 Comments
=== Foreword ===
Ahem.
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=== Preamble ===
Tonight was military appreciation night, and at one point the announcer asked all past and present servicemen to stand. The crowd gave a warm ovation.
About twelve men stood up in the five or six sections around us in View level. One was in our section, down in front. He took off a Coast Guard cap, raised it to us, and slowly spun around, beaming and acknowledging the applause for 15 or 20 seconds. I'd normally guess from his demeanor that he'd stormed a pillbox and won a CMH, but am not sure that's Coast Guard duty. Plus, he was too young to... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/17/10
9 Comments
=== Hall of Fame Legends Dept. ===
It was about 1998-99, the M's wearing socks on linoleum trying to punch out the Yankees and Red Sox, and Rickey in the bouncearound phase of his career.
He told some Mariner player or other, you guys gotta get me witchoo up there in Seattle. You lose by one run every night, and I've got two runs in me every night...
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After six full, it was Ichiro 2, Tigers 1, and come Bullpen Time ... we had basked in a joyous baseball game for two hours. As opposed to the two hours of suffering we'd have endured, if not for the HOF'er in right field.... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/16/10
8 Comments
San-Man with his usual towering fly ball off a 1-2 count. ;- ) He remains willing to give Kotchman a fair shot this season. Dr. D turns his numbers to the infield and tears off after the ball in his erratic, but enthusiastic, Tui-like OF chase ...
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=== 30,000 Foot View, Dept. ===
It is not Kotchman's result so far this April that has me predicting that he's going to hurt the ballclub in 2010.
True, his 2010 result so far does nothing to dissuade us: he is running a 90 OPS+ ... Safeco-adjusted already and gaining from that friendly park synergy that was imputed ...
And that 90 so far... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 04/16/10
1 Comments
Start with some things one can find on the internet without really trying:
2004 amateur draft, 2nd round:
64th pick: Hunter Pence, Astros
65th pick: Dustin Pedroia, RedSox
67th pick: Kurt Suzuki, As
68th pick: Jason Vargas, Marlins
2005 NL Rookie of the Year:
1st -- 109 points, Ryan Howard, Phillies
T8th -- 1 point, Jason Vargas, Marlins
Good early numbers from the minors:
Just to rile up our host, I'll start with Chad Cordero -- 4 G, 5.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 5 K, 2 SV
Garrett Olson is in the Tacoma pen, has 6 K, 0 BB in 5.0 IP
Luke French is in the Tacoma rotation, has 8 K, 1 BB, 1 ER in 12.... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/15/10
13 Comments
I/O: Jack Cust is available -- via a Langerhans-type dingleberry deal. He's in the A's org but not on their 40-man. Here the M's are wandering in the desert in search of an HR fountain.
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CRUNCH1: Obviously the M's have Ken Griffey Jr as the DH vs RHP, so for them this exercise seems mostly theoretical.
If for some reason you thought you could recover Cust's 140 OPS+'s from 2007 and 2008, you'd have to either (1) make Junior a coach, (2) give Cust (or Junior) some AB's vs LHP's and some of them at 1B/LF, maybe pushing Sweeney out of the org, or (3) go to an 11-man pitching staff and... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/15/10
21 Comments
Q. Nice to step back from the ledge, isn't it?
A. SSI is where you get your Thai "contrarian" fan fare. At 2-6, we didn't feel a lot different than we would have if 6-2.
D-O-V seeks points of difference that are unreported elsewhere, for no other reason than it can make for a bit of a fresher discussion. :- ) For example, when Milton Bradley was 2-for-21 or whatever. He was actually showing things that few other hitters are capable of showing...
At 4-6, all of a sudden the M's find themselves packed in a 2-game race, with Felix locked-and-loaded and Lee back in a turn or two. Feels... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/14/10
7 Comments
Q. How did Vargas do it?
A. With a Frank Caliendo-class imitation of Jamie Moyer.
First of all, he had plus-plus command of his 87 fastball. If Vargas were to throw with that kind of command every game, he'd be at least an average-solid pitcher.
It seemed like every time he centered a fastball, somebody ripped it hard somewhere -- but he centered remarkably few heaters. In fact, Brooks Baseball had Vargas' fastball at 5.05 for nibbleness, meaning that his typical fastball was five inches inside (strike) or outside (ball) of a normalized strike zone.
..............
Then, because the A's... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/14/10
6 Comments
Thanks for the uploads Brian. You da man.
Amigos called our attention to these, full well knowing we wouldn't be able to resist. You guys are sick in the head.
We'll resist the temptation to rebuild every Mariner's swing and throwing motion :- ) and just sightsee for a bit. If dat's okay witchoo. We'll enjoy a few points-of-difference on each vid -- things the player is doing that is different from the way things are usually done.
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=== Milton Bradley ===
Brian L was filming at the moment of Bradley's 3-run shot. Slap me silly, what happens when the man is both lucky and good, Yogi... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/14/10
8 Comments
Grant me strength to resist the temptation to fault-find all the guys I'm not high on... :- )
ALL these guys have finely-tuned, majestic sports motions. Hey, the guys in single-A have beautiful sports motions, much less a man like Ryan Rowland-Smith who is one of the 100-200 best in the world at what he does. (Okay, one of the 300 best, all countries and starters and relievers. That's still like the number of astronauts there are.)
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=== Nose-to-Leather ===
Forward Brian's RRS vid to exactly the 15-second mark and tell me at what part of the strike zone that Ryan is looking.
This is not... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/14/10
=== Ichiro ===
On Brian's Ichiro Contact 2 -- Ichiro's power swing -- notice how quiet Ichiro's hands and head are before the bat launch. You can see the powerful load in his front shoulder, despite the fact that his shoulder doesn't actually travel far. This is the Japanese-aiki "moving without motion" concept -- certain muscles tense but your movement stays very compact.
Ichiro has commented that, even if an enemy hitter detects (on video) that he is moving a knee differently, he won't know why this movement is occurring...
In Ichiro's power swing, the head stays back and the... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 04/14/10
6 Comments
Haven't had time for full-bore minors reports, but trying to pop in with things that I find interesting or fun.
First one: Brian Moran.
How far can a guy get with nothing but a funky left-handed delivery and a located high-80s fastball?
Guess we'll find out. If nothing else, Brian Moran LOOKS like he should be the LOOGY.
Here's what we know. Skinny 6-3, 185 dude got his UNC invite as a favor to his uncle B.J. Surhoff (hey, it worked for Mike Piazza), but parlayed that into tiny ERAs, College World Series appearances with Ackley, Seager & co., and an 88:8 K:BB ratio on 65 IP. ... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/13/10
16 Comments
=== Brett Anderson ===
Right now, Anderson doesn't look a whole lot different to me, from a young C.C. Sabathia. Dallas "Better Changeup" Braden followed his 10K detonation of the M's with a quality start and win in game 2. Justin Duchscherer is a quality pitcher. They've got Harden, er, Sheets. And Gio Gonzalez wiped out the Angels from the 5 slot: 6 6 2 2 1 6. Right now, the evidence is coming in on the side of Bill James' fears about this being the year for the Angels' pitchers.
Anyway, a very tough, high-K lefthander in Safeco ... SSI thought that the Mariners put an excellent... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/13/10
7 Comments
Q. SSI wavering any, on its prediction about Aardsma's impending implosion?
A. Really disliked the way he threw the ball Tuesday. LOL.
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This whole question is one that is very well captured by roto, methinks. I think you'll find that EVERY rotodweeb agrees right down the line as to what David Aardsma is.
The Bob Wickman, Matt Capps, Bobby Jenks type closers -- the ones who do not have true Papelbon, KRod type skill -- the Wickmans and Guardados and Jenkses can cobble along for one season or three, as long as they don't personally begin their own destructions by walking 9 men... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/13/10
6 Comments
Q. What happened out there?
A. Irresistible force meets immovable object, dept...
On the postgame, Jay Buhner noted that the Oakland A's lineup is trying to out-manage the strike zone against the pitcher. Fister took away the A's hitters' counts by going first-pitch strike.
Dennis Eckersley was a master of this profound strategy: (1) know whether the hitter is passive or aggressive; (2a) throw offspeed and off the plate against the aggressive guys; (2b) pound the strike zone for 0-1 counts against passive hitters.
The A's have a passive lineup, passive in a good sense, and... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/13/10
11 Comments
Q. Can Doogie execute like this consistently?
A. He can't throw 3-hit shutouts consistently; neither can Cliff Lee. But I actually think that Fister can execute better pitches than this, on a game-in, game-out basis.
What I mean by that, is that Fister only threw 22-of-100 pitches offspeed. 78% fastballs is wayyyyyyy above the AL average -- and Fister is a change-speed guy.
Of Fister's 22 offspeed pitches, 18 (!!) were strikes. I didn't see a single one hit hard.
.................
Granted, his FB location was solid by his standards, and his 73 change-curve was easily the best I've seen... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/13/10
12 Comments
A surprisingly vigorous pepper game has broken out over SSI's read of Fister's background... You're not supposed to take 3/4 swings in a friendly pepper game, kiddies :- )
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I agree 100% that when a minor-league pitcher brings his BB's to 0+, for sure the question is whether he's over-challenging. It's totally possible that a pitcher could run 0+ BB's just by throwing everything for a strike. Especially this is the case with ML'ers who have lost their place in the majors and gotten demoted...
And it's not a theoretical question. This could easily be the case with Fister... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/12/10
5 Comments
=== Catfish, Dept. ===
Now, keep in mind that SSI doesn't believe that Kelley's change-speed game is the issue for him.
For those who haven't yet run screaming into the night, we'll say it again: Catfish Hunter, Robin Roberts and Fergie Jenkins won for no other reason than that they threw better than average FB's with real good command. And they won, what, about 5,000 games just between those three.
Throw a good fastball, with something on it, for a strike -- but not into that little blue oval that is the hot zone. It's been workin' for a hundred years, and in a hundred more years, it... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/12/10
5 Comments
=== Ye'll 'ave No Mob Lynchings at SSI, Dept. ===
The pundits, including my fave pundits, were on the Mariners like Albert Belle with spikes high at second -- from games two and three of this season. The offense is in the tank, this team needs help, and lo and behold, now you see it.
Logical, but let's be fair. This article and this article demonstrate, I believe, that Jarrod Washburn could not have done much about a 2-6 start. He had about a 30%, 40% chance of winning one of those games, taking the M's to 3-5.
Putting Adam Laroche into this lineup would also have been nice, but: Casey... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/12/10
=== Taro ===
I/O: Its early yeah, but: Felix starts: 2-0. The Rest: 0-5. (Now 0-6 - Dr. D)
I was never comfortable with the BOR situation.
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CRUNCH: This was one of the most interesting debates all through March 1-31, and for that reason it's not too early to ask about that anti-Washburn decision.
The average Mariner ballgame has been +2.6 runs for, -4.9 runs against, so obviously the offense is the big problem. But let's take a look: in the first eight games, has the anti-Washburn call cost us?
You could go look up the WAR, and learn exactly nothing:
Felix: +0.1
Snell: -0.... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/12/10
2 Comments
Part 1
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The Washburn Factor looks a bit worse than I thought it would. Of the six losses:
April 6: Washburn = no difference
April 7: Washburn = 70% chance of winning (RRS)
April 8: Washburn = 20% chance of winning, that being a 50% chance of winning a lockdown start (Fister)
April 9: Washburn = 40% chance of winning, that being a 50% chance of winning a quality start (Vargas)
April 11: Washburn = 30% chance of winning, with the entire game an alternate reality (Snell)
April 12: Washburn = 15% chance of winning, that being a 40% chance of winning a lockdown start (RRS)
There is the... Read More
Posted by anonymous (not verified) on 04/12/10
7 Comments
Is it too early to worry about Ackley's start with an 091 batting average? I have been following this kid since high school and I have never seen him start this low.
Will the move to second base slow his development?
JH
Posted by anonymous (not verified) on 04/12/10
I know it's early...but let's go with this.
1. My over-under for the first Bradley implosion/meltdown was originally mid-May. I moved it back to early June. I'm now moving it up to May 1. I won't call his "gesture" event a meltdown but it did require a tete-a-tete with Wak. I wouldn't be surprised if there was a bit of other event that went on, too. Timebombs tick. Tick-Tick-Tick. 1-21. Tick-Tick-Tick! Two more ofers? Tick-Tick-Boom!
2. Jr. can still be a very effective situational bat. Not bad for a mascot.
3. Kotchman just looks like he is going to make a whole bunch of outs. ... Read More
Posted by anonymous (not verified) on 04/11/10
2 Comments
Hey all, I am trying to reach as many Seattle hockey fans as possible, and more specifically any Washington Capitals fans living in Seattle. As you probably know, the playoffs are upon us and there are going to be some viewing parties in Seattle for as many Capitals games as we can organize.
So if you are a Caps fan in Seattle, or just someone wanting to watch good hockey with other fans, drop me an email at deathdiction@gmail.com, and I will let you know what the details are.
Thanks
Posted by jemanji on 04/10/10
=== Disclaimers, Caveats and Quid Pro Quo's ===
Dr. D is a bit peeved this evening. :- ) If you don't want to read anything that might hurt your feelers, move on. Nothing to see here, folks.
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=== Setting ===
M's down 1 in the 9th. Runners on first and third. Guti up next. Figgins due; Junior pinch-hits.
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=== Oversimplification Dept. ==
Postgame analysis, popularly, runs:
Premise 1. Griffey has a lower overall OPS+ (or RC/27, or wOBA) than Figgins.
Premise 2. The context exacerbates this; pinch-hitting is hard to do; Figgins is hard to double up; etc.
Conclusion. ... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/10/10
6 Comments
Part 1
=== ToNIGHT's Ballgame Dept. ===
Aside from simple pitcher-batter-splits ... and Wakamatsu was entitled to use his own intuition on this Saturday, in view of the lack of history to go on ...
We could name 25 additional factors that warped the generic Strat-O-Matic expectations for Saturday night's at-bat.
Here are a few specific-game factors that are, in this case, by no means theoretical. Do Figgins' 108 OPS+ from last year, and/or Griffey's 95 OPS+, adapt under any of the following April 10th circumstances:
What if Figgins is 3-for-this-week? Is he still a .360 wOBA projection... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/10/10
=== King Felix ===
Has reached the point at which it literally requires accidents to create runs against him. That was the way in the 5th inning on Saturday:
.......
Joaquin Arias, scared spitless and hitting passively, saw an 0-1 curveball up, suddenly woke up, said, "hey! a slow one!" and knocked a soft liner into CF. Okay, well, Felix has to tighten it up...
Taylor Teagarden, bunting in the 5th inning to get 1 run if that don't show you how scared they are, squares around and ... Felix, annoyed, comes in to brush him back.
Teagarden shouldn't have had much problem getting out of the way... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/10/10
5 Comments
Weaver's third law: if you play for one run, that's all you'll get. Don't play for one run unless you absolutely know that run is the ballgame.
There are times when one run is worth ten earlier runs.
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=== Don Wakamatsu ===
An amazing, and inspired, decision in the 9th inning to hit Junior for Figgins. Junior stepped up and I was puzzled.
I asked my son, "I wonder why he doesn't pinch-hit Junior for one of the two righties up after Figgins? If he wants to get Junior in there at all?"
John rolled his eyes, annoyed with my naivete. "Come on, dad. A fly ball ties the game. Figgins isn'... Read More
Posted by anonymous (not verified) on 04/10/10
1 Comments
One exciting thing about baseball, is to watch the blossoming of a a great talent right before your eyes. As we witnessed Griffey Jr, to fruition, Randy Johnson, and Arod, and Edgar, we have one right now, that possesses that same excitement and elation when he brings it to the park and wins a big game for you. In Ichiro's words "He made a very nice, fantastic play out there."
Yes, Franklin, you sure did.
This guy is falling into the sparkplug role, of getting this team to fire on all possible cylinders, it seems he is learning how to lead by example , and he is unquestionably just the thing... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/09/10
1 Comments
For a coupla years now, SSI has been whining that Ryan Rowland-Smith does not have 200-IP stamina.
We're not especially talking about velo dropoffs late in games; we're talking about his stuff getting mushier as he spends a few months as a starting pitcher.
He's big, he's an Aussie, you look at him and you think, "workhorse." But you watch the trends and the flight of the ball, and it's a little diff-ernt...
..........
Y'know, there's something that just hit us, in the mind's eye: I don't ever remember RRS getting anybody out after batter #27. Well, you know. ... we remember... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/09/10
8 Comments
Part 1
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=== Overexposure Dept. ===
The stamina is part of it. RRS' history is not good after 75 pitches. But also, the physical carry-through aside, you simply don't want to give batters that 3rd look.
There are pitchers who have enough weapons, that the third time through they just show the hitters a different pitch sequence, if not completely different pitches.
Obviously Felix could nail you with FB-change one time, FB-slider another, FB-both a third time ... pitch you up, pitch you down, ground you out, strike you out.
RRS, what does he do differently the third time through, that he... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/09/10
2 Comments
=== Prospect Insider ===
Not sure exactly when it was, that Jason Churchill hit another gear on the Minor League Autobahn and revved to 140 mph, but I like eeeet.
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I/O: Jason provides a non-premium 2010 prospect overview, and it pleasantly sets the context as to where the M's put their blue-chippers.
Cheney has only 5 of Jason's top 30; the AA DiamondJaxx have twice that, and as many are at A+ and A ball. SSI doesn't at all disagree with the observation that Cheney tends to be stuffed with players whose value is at org level, but this isn't unusual among MLB franchises.
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PI opines that... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/09/10
=== Shannon Drayer ===
I/O: Scores very high on the readability scoreboard with this post on the Mariners' mood. It was "quiet" in Oakland -- does this mean loss of morale? Nah, Junior says, it was the two late losses.
New city, re-set button, sez Junior, which is why everybody was chipper again.
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CRUNCH: Jim Bouton, in Ball Four, wrote that "losing a ballgame so suddenly is like being punched in the stomach." You've already chalked up a game against the teams that have lost, and then...
Which ... have you ever been punched in the stomach, hard and high above the navel, when you weren'... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/09/10
7 Comments
=== Taro Sez ===
I think the window of opportunity has closed for the rest of the division.
This isn't a reaction to the 1-3 start (it could easily be 2-2), its a reaction to watching CJ Wilson pitch in the rotation. Hes going to be Breakout SP of 2010.
Texas is going to run away with it. I already had Texas as the favorites, but CJ Wilson and Colby Lewis (we get to see his debut tommorow) are a lot better than everybody realizes.Long-term, Texas is also in a tremendous position to stay at the top for a while. We'll give it a shot, but if the division is pretty much decided by June... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/09/10
=== Jack Rabbit ===
Thanks for the post, man. Nothing but net.
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=== NYM ===
I can't even post on LL or USSM today because I don't want to catch their guff for stating how insignificant the loss of Langerhans is.
We get it, he's a plus defender and he's cheap. However, our management group saw him nothing more than an occasional pinch hitter or pinch runner. He was not going to serve a major role on this team, so losing him does not effect this team's chances of winning one iota. There is an argument to be made that if the roster was properly deployed that Langerhans would be... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/09/10
Q. So the M's are now paying the price for not making the adds that they needed to make.
A. :- ) We thoroughly enjoyed our man Geoffy going off on his video blog. (Did you know he's getting like 8,000 to that podcast?! What do the A's get to a baseball game?)
We also think Geoffy has a whale of a lot of light bulbs on that his nemeses don't. Probably more light bulbs, overall, too.
...........
We remind yer, though, that (say) Adam Laroche and Jarrod Washburn would have added, perhaps, 30-40 runs (3-4 wins) to this team. Let's keep that in proportion, when we're talking about the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/09/10
21 Comments
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Chart from BrooksBaseball.net. I know yer can't read it too good here, so here's the link.
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=== Preamble ===
If Snell, Fister, and RRS throw the way they did the first series, they'll be all right. Especially in front of that defense.
If I were Zduriencik, I'd feel like my "Strike Throwing Tomata Cans" strategy was nicely on track so far.
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=== Doogie 4.8: Just the Facts ===
ONE - Fister threw only two pitches that batters swung at and missed. The A's are not going be confused with the Yankees. This is a disastrous stat.
TWO - The biggest reason that the A's... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 04/09/10
. . . with Dustin Ackley striking out swinging. And Carlos Triunfel grounding to second.
And then Dan Cortes giving up a bomb to top Marlin prospect Mike Stanton (not the former bullpen lefty).
It got better, but not for Cortes, who gave up 6 H, 2 BB, 4 ER in 4.2 IP with only 1 K. His hot streak at the end of last year didn't carry over.
But, indeed, Ackley and Triunfel were the top of the order and the infield keystone at 2b and SS. Ackely later walked and stole second. Triunfel had a bunt single. D-Jaxx came back to win on HR by faded prospects Mike Wilson and Guillermo Quiroz and... Read More
Posted by anonymous (not verified) on 04/08/10
22 Comments
Last year I loved the two walkoff's he gave us, but I don't see the need for all this hand wringing over designating Langerhans to get us another arm in the pen. Colome's history hasn't been stellar by any means, but he put in a decent ST, and Adair sees something he likes in him. We should have started the year off this way. In no way can I say right now, that Langerhans is a better hitter than Sweeney, mainly because we haven't seen Sweeney yet, but he probably is a better hitter than Junior, and thats where we are hamstringed.
Posted by jemanji on 04/07/10
15 Comments
=== Dallas Braden Tuesday ===
Breaking the right arm twisting it to pat yourself on the back... :- ) check this article by the internet's second-best pitching analyst.
When a mediocrity like Braden detonates a weak 2009 offense, you have three possible interpretations, Yogi:
A) Braden threw a terrific game by his own standards
B ) The Mariners mailed in a real weenie effort
C) Some combination of the two
D) Abstain and wait to see more from Braden (refuse to interpret it)
The M's offense is being fricasee'd on the 'net today, but the eyes told Dr. D that Braden's change was shellshocking,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/06/10
15 Comments
Taro sez:
Looking at the picture on the other thread, Pineda has zero, literally ZERO hip-shoulder seperation. I still haven't seen vid, but I don't like that for a hard thrower since hes pretty arming the ball.
How's his timing? Is his arm close to 90 degrees vertical at footplant?
................
That's true champ...
He does not begin with his hip, torque the torso, and then unsnap the shoulder ... because the shoulder is forward already, before we ever enter the conversation. As y'know, this isn't a question of [A] and [B] standing in improper relationship. It's more a... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/06/10
16 Comments
My ten favorite things about getting nibbled to death by gerbils:
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10. The Angels lost. At home. Joe Saunders gave up three jacks.
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9. The M's are within 0.5 games of first place. The goal is to be within 4-5 games by the time Bedard gets back, so we feel no pain roaring along in a pack headed towards the first turn.
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8. Mark Lowe. Came in throwing 95-97 and the slider was untouchable. Making League and Kelley look like dead men.
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7. 160 games left to go. Nice to have baseball back, isn't it? Had forgotten how aesthetic a simple base hit up the middle looks...
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6. Ian... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/06/10
5 Comments
So in Game Two, we get an opportunity for Lineup Two.
Unfortunately, the first week may be an entitlement week. But after that, I'm hoping for absolutely as much mix-and-match platooning as possible. The more PA's for the #10-14 hitters, the happier I'll be.
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=== Dallas Braden ===
Most-comparable pitchers: RRS on a bad day, Ted Lilly if Lilly threw a lot more fastballs, Livan Hernandez plus a foot or two.
Braden is a classic 36-year-old smoke-and-mirrors lefty, hanging on for one more season in the sun. 87 fastball, good deception on the curve and change. Oh, did I read his age... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/05/10
8 Comments
=== Sidd Finch Dept. ===
Edit to add, we had a chance to slo-mo Pineda's throwing motion here tonight. Now we got it. :- )
What we had thought was an extreme short-arm motion, actually isn't, not as much as we thought it was. What is strange is that Pineda under-rotates his torso, creating the same effect that short-arm pitchers get but through a different movement.
...........
(Almost) all pitchers turn their numbers to the hitter at least a little bit, and 80%-90% of pitchers, you'll be able to get a glimpse of the ball on the 1B side of their bodies for a moment. Tim... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/05/10
5 Comments
=== The Natural "Three's All He'll Need" Dept. ===
Last spring training game, we got to see the legendary Sasquatch go 2.5 hitters, albeit in a driving rain.
We didn't see the 99 mph, but with a hurried bullpen, a slippery mound, a cold day and a wet ball, we did see 93-95 right off the bat. Inconclusive as to the high-90's claims, but obviously the man is King Kong add a little more chest hair.
Didn't see the "gnat at 1,000 yards" command, either, in those 12-odd pitches through the rain.
What we did see, was that when Pineda's vorpal curve went snicker-snack, the ML hitters were... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/05/10
=== 5th Benchie ===
In Scorecard 1 and Scorecard 2, we preened over the way that Capt Jack has been synch'ing up with SSI's roto take on the M's:
Tuiasosopo as super-sub
Mike Sweeney as 25th man
Johnson and Moore the catchers, no vet C on the 25-man
Doug Fister to the front o' the line
Erik Bedard ASAP
Figgins 2B, Lopez 3B
This didn't include the stuff like moving Ackley to 2B and the Great Morrow-League Debate, but you can see how understandably giddy SSI is about the 25 men in the dugout.
We did ask for two more things in order to bring Team SSI :- ) into optimal fighting trim:
11 pitchers... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/05/10
18 Comments
=== Don't Know What This Has to Do With Anything, But I Thought I'd Mention It, Dept. ===
The A's bullpen looked filthy, didn't it?
For those who didn't catch Baker's interview of James, he picked the A's to finish 2nd in the AL West. His reasoning: that the A's young pitching looks like it's about to jell.
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=== Adrian Beltre AB's ===
After the game, I asked the guys with me if they remembered a single garbage swing by the M's. One (1), as in. They couldn't.
Milton Bradley -- of all people -- swung at one or two pitches he'd like to have back. But other than that, I can't think of a... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/05/10
5 Comments
=== vs Sheets & Co. ===
Congrats to mighty Case, who put Tout Wars Round One decisively in the M's ledger. Kotchman attacked the ball aggressively all night, and was visibly "on" fastballs and curve balls without getting caught in between.
A roped double deep into the gap, a game-winning RBI, four ribbies total ... and he'd have had three hits (with the game-winning run scored) if the umps hadn't jobbed him on the single in the 8th.
If you look at Sheets' first matchup with Kotchman, you'll see five pitches everywhere other than the lower-in quadrant that is Kotchman's bane. Next... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/05/10
23 Comments
In the NYY-ATL World Series, Eric Gregg got caught on the ATM camera calling strikes a foot outside, and got 20-to-life civilian status. Since then, Tim Tschida has fought valiantly to take over the coveted status as MLB's most embarrassing umpire. He's not as bad as Gregg was, but he'll do until a better candidate comes along.
If you want a quick feel for the nature of the problemo, go to MLB GameDay and review Felix' second and third "walks" of the evening, to Daric Barton and Mark Ellis respectively.
Fourth inning: I've often wondered what a man does when he cracks off a textbook... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 04/05/10
2 Comments
Browsing some spring numbers without reading too much into them:
One of the regulars put up this line:
45 AB, 13 H, 4 2b, 1 HR, 6 BB, 4 K, .289/.385/.444/.829
That was completely under the radar to me. It was Jack Wilson.
Looks like he had a very similar line in 2007, but not since. Obviously, any offensive help from him would be much appreciated.
The other cool line:
51 AB, 15 H, 5 2b, 6 BB, 9 K, .314/.386/.412/.798 -- Adam Moore
Scanning H, XBH, BB and K:
Sweeney had 20 hits and 9 XBH in 40 AB, but 0 BB/8 K (guess you don't need to walk if you're smoking everything for XBH)
Figgins had... Read More
Posted by anonymous (not verified) on 04/03/10
I was thinking about Griffey and Vizquel about to become four-decade players (from the '80s into the '10s) once the season starts, along with Moyer, and went looking back at their first game, 21 years ago today, in Oakland vs. Mr. Dave Stewart starting (at first I typed staring) for the A's. I thought people might enjoy the trip back in time as we get ready for opening day, so here's some of the quotes I found:
Jim Levebvre on Junior: "We saw the debut of a great player tonight. That’s a great talent.
"He gets two quick strikes [in the eighth inning] and then fouls off some pretty tough... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/02/10
5 Comments
Shannon Drayer, on the Mar. 31 Hot Stove, relayed the giddiness in M's camp right now around Mr. 10K.
Bedard has been humming laser beams from 120 feet on flat ground and feeling zero punishment from his wing afterward. (Ever thrown a ball so that it makes a loud noise in a mitt 40 yards away?)
He's been taking mini-bullpens and leaving the peanut gallery in giggles. "Spectacular" and "pretty incredible" and adjectives like that dominate.
Drayer asked Bedard, wow, you're a quick healer, aren't you? Yeah, said Erikkk, problem is I'm also a quick breaker...
...............
You... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/02/10
8 Comments
=== David Aardsma ===
Having been the guy who sounded four alarms at the suggestion that Mr. 38-for-42 was a big time closer, now permit us to swing the pendulum a bit the other way...
Aardsma has been hit this spring, no doubts there, but it's not real likely he's about to get Bobby Ayala'ed under a road grader.
Aardsma has a mid-90's fastball that, in his case, looks like high-90's, and he is "effectively wild" to boot. He's white-knuckle, true, and the M's might have to swap Kelley or League in there sooner rather than later.
But neither is it a situation where you've got Eddie Guardado... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/02/10
1 Comments
=== Rose-San ===
The last three-four days, each announcer has stepped up to the mike, never hitting out of batting order, and reminded us how little the players want to be at the games right now. Can't wait for the reg season, y unnerstan.
So when your #2 starter gets a line drive through the chest against low-minors hitters, just remember he didn't wanna be there...
Ichiro stepped up against Aaron Cook with the kind of glare that reminds us all that he'd far rather have a katana in his hand than a bat. Making do with sissy weapons provided, he grimly roped a hit that the right... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/02/10
5 Comments
=== Eric Brynes ===
Rox announcer sez that the M's "won the lotto" on this guy. $11m ballplayer, just dinged up a little, now we got us a star for the minimum wage.
Brynes swung horribly through RH fastballs all game long, but still, we get what the guy meant. As a #4 outfielder, he reminds you a little bit of the days when the LA Lakers used to bring Bob McAdoo and Steve Mix off the bench to make fun of your own second shift...
.498 SLG lifetime against LH pitchers. But don't let that fool you: Byrnes is, at his core, a leadoff hitter. I'd have him hitting 9th when he's in there.
Fast... Read More
Posted by Sandy on 04/01/10
5 Comments
Y'know, with Junior and Sweeney back - Moyer returning in Philly - and the general trend of people explaining why this player or that player can remain immune from aging - I got to thinking about baseball compared to other sport.
Baseball is the one sport where you play EVERY day (practically). You get an average of 1 day off per week (roughly 6 games a week for 27 weeks). Every other sport - the NORM is that you get multiple days off between contests - and back-to-back games are rare. Of course, baseball is largely non-contact, so the thinking is that the game isn't hard on the body, (... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 04/01/10
12 Comments
Bench Business-----
Garko is gone, and right out of the box who shows up at first base? Why, it's Matt Tuiasosopo!
Could they be thinking that Tui could fill both the Garko role and the Byrnes role (except not playing CF), and Hannahan comes back to take the backup IF spot?
In other words, Tui as the emergency SS only lasts until Hannahan returns, allowing the defensive paradigm to return to its natural repose (whew! that was close!), and then Byrnes gets cut? In that sense you'd have Sweeney for Garko and Tui for Byrnes, with Tui taking on both defensive rolesp>
11 IP, 2 ER, 3 BB,... Read More