June 2010
Posted by jemanji on 06/30/10
7 Comments
Q. How hot is he?
A. He's not, actually. From the middle of June, through Tuesday night, he'd been hitting .156 with a 1:9 EYE.
(By the way, did you get a load of b-ref.com's new SUM function? Click on any two rows of a player's gamelog and it will calculate the period's stats for you.)
However, we do note that the Mariners' current hot streak -- 6 in a row, then 9-of-12 -- coincided exactly with Saunders being put into the starting lineup.
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Q. What's the excitement?
A. Saunders is showing 35-homer power. Not 25-homer power; 35-homer power. Not flashes of power;... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/30/10
10 Comments
Q. Getting Saunders triangulated yet?
A. Despite some differences -- the balance-and-swing are different; Saunders isn't as hugely gifted; etc -- Saunders starts to remind of Darryl Strawberry.
Strawberry also had:
An extreme pull game
A hyper-aggressive approach
The quickest bat in baseball
Very long body, with a big loopy swing (which was OK because of the fast-twitch bat launch)
Light-tower power (Saunders has Cafe power)
Not especially good HIT ability
Real good speed and athleticism (Straw would swipe 25-30 bags a year)
.250'ish AVG, but with 60+ walks and a reliable 35 homers per... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/30/10
6 Comments
At BaseballHQ, they're in the business of predicting the performances of baseball players. Better predictions mean more money.
They're not perfect -- maybe they're not even better than Taro and CPB; I don't know -- but do keep in mind the important difference between them and us. HQ is accountable. They're tracked. People go back and count up their mistakes. That's the difference between a serious process and blowing your nose: metrics.
.................
As they sort through the "noise" to try to gain the edge over their professional competition, they develop "Laws of Physics" that... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/30/10
I/O: Geoff Baker just angled a doggy-ear up into "radar" position on Michael Saunders. Perhaps this means that Saunders is arriving.
CRUNCH: Geoff Baker is one of the best baseball writers I have seen. Since 1970. We'll give you the advance scouting on him.
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=== OBJECTIVITY - 80 ===
Baker is the one guy in Seattle who doesn't give two french fries off of his car's carpet whether the Mariners win or lose. And I love him for it.
You could say he's a Blue Jays fan, except he's not. He's not particularly a baseball fan. He's a Habs fan. I strongly suspect that if MLB(TM) folded... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/30/10
7 Comments
=== TOOLS SCOUTING - 60 ===
Also don't know how likely you are to get a prediction that, say, Doug Fister's mechanics will lead to superior command. But on the other hand, once Fister goes out and tosses even a single game with superior makeup, Baker will spot it right then and there.
50 for tools projection ... but 70 for tools recognition.
As we recall, after Fister's second game in 2010, Baker was like "wow, there was something I wasn't sure Doug Fister was capable of." Here again is the Blue Jays, nah the Canadiens detachment: it takes a decent blip on the seismo to register. But... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 06/30/10
5 Comments
Z has been around the block enough to know some basic principles.
Every other GM wants to get Cliff Lee for the least cost. Z wants the opposite. He's in a game of leverage. His biggest card: his ability to walk away from the table.
Once the other side thinks that you are so enamored with the idea of a deal that you won't walk away no matter what -- then you're cooked. You will never get the best return.
So, what might a really savvy negotiator do in a deal that can't be kept 100% secret?
1. Put out some "managed" PR with just enough credibility to keep the other side thinking. And what... Read More
Posted by Ben on 06/29/10
22 Comments
Hi guys - longtime reader, first time poster. I love the discussion here. It's one of the best ways I keep up w/ the M's as a transplanted Seattleite in LA.
Matt's post pulled me into the fray :)
My simple take: Russell the Muscle is tons of fun to watch. He gets the fans excited in a rough season (that might be short Cliff Lee soon, ugh). To me that's worth a lot more than xx WAR.
Here's what Mark Cuban says (in an article about the LeBron madness):
Cuban says there is a cardinal rule in being the kind of owner who appeals to free agents: "Never quit on a season to save money ... free... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 06/28/10
I noted in the comments that other day that two guys likely to be in the vacinity of where the Ms will draft have been advancing in the College World Series, and it turns out they will meet in the finals starting tonight.
UCLA RHP Gerrit Cole will get the start for the Bruins in the opening game of the best-of-three final. In his earlier start, he whiffed 13 in 8.0 IP, and earned an interview with Erin Andrews (yes, there are baseball highlights on there, too): http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=5313322
Cole is a big guy who can crank it up to 98 and also has two solid offspeed offerings. ... Read More
Posted by SABR Matt on 06/27/10
44 Comments
Or alternate title: Mariners trade Shin-Soo Choo and Asdrubal Cabrera for Ben Broussard and Eddy Perez and Jemanji LOOOOOOOV's EEEEET!!!
I actually liked the Broussard/Cabrera swap for platoon DH idea at the time it was done...the club needed a legit DH...the club was almost competitive at the time...and I wanted us to get better in the here and now. We all know how it worked out in the long run. And this move is, philosophically, identical (though we're NOWHERE NEAR contention this year and Cabrera and Diaz are each slightly weaker prospects than their counterparts from 2006). Branyan... Read More
Posted by malcontent on 06/27/10
3 Comments
I've known that I had to eat crow on this for about a month, it's time I finally said it. You were completely correct about Casey Kotchman Taro, he's the same player he's ever been and I was rather drastically wrong about his potential. He's been worth -0.6 wins so far on fangraphs, despite a decent bump from UZR.
Tui, Carp, Sweeney, Ryan Langerhans and Josh Wilson have also combined for about 90 PA at first base, and in their time have managed to OPS about .016 points better, without the UZR bump. It's ridiculous, 1st Base has been our 2nd worst offensive position after...DH. Well... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/26/10
Q. Mutual options are brainless, right?
A. Now, we've warned you about this, Egbert. Don't make us come over there.
Right off the bat, we read 89 places that assured us that mutual options have absolutely no purpose for existing. But give the agents and GM's credit for a little intelligence once in a while.
Mutual options are becoming an epidemic.
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Q. Do they ever get exercised?
A. Sure. Just real quick, Brian Moehler, Miguel Olivo, and Jason Varitek recently re-upped because of them. We're sure there are lots more; Google them if you want. They tend to occur most often with... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/26/10
7 Comments
Q. Is Zduriencik likely to pick up the Indians' $5M option for 2011?
A. Well, that's apparently what he wanted to do this year -- give Branyan decent change on a 1-year deal. They go into 2011 with a "tentative verbal agreement" to do just that.
We gingerly infer that, since Zduriencik gave up Carrera and since there's nobody to play 1B next year, that this is in fact his plan.
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Q. Is it worth trying to win this season?
A. Zduriencik told us, in code language, what the deal is. He doesn't want loseritis setting in.
WWBBD? What would Billy Beane do? When the A's aren't able to win... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/26/10
7 Comments
Q. Shouldn't the M's be gearing up for the future?
A. The M's have many exciting position players on the farm. None of them play first base!
Alex Liddi, Carlos Triunfel, Dustin Ackley, Michael Saunders, Adam Moore ... and perhaps even Greg Halman, Matt Mangini and Dennis Raben could conceivably help the Mariners in 2012 or even in 2011.
If Zduriencik thought he had a Ryan Braun to play 1B (y'know) then he would do that. But the prospects are 2B, 3B, and outfield.
So you've got to get your #3-#4 hitters somewhere. Branyan could be part of a surprise playoff team in 2011.
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Q. Like... Read More
Posted by TAD on 06/26/10
9 Comments
As a baseball fan and particularly a fan for the last 30+ yrs of the Seattle Mariners, I want my team to win. It's not about helping the M's going to make it to the playoffs this year - we all know that is a very slim possibility.
I'm estatic that Z is still looking to improve the club, and ensure the players understand that winning is expected of them as management is continuing to do their part to place a winning product on the field. Possibly by winning a few more games this year management will prevent a poisoned atmosphere from settling into the clubhouse circa 2008 - hopefully Wak... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/25/10
5 Comments
Grizzle hooks us up:
Divish wrote that his fastball was 91 - 97. Adam Moore caught him and said that his fastball "cuts and sinks", so I am assuming as you do that he throws a few different types of fastball (4 seam, sinker, cutter).
I know that linking another site is crass, but everyone should read Jeff's interview segments with Curto and Divish. Divish's account of the 5th inning makes me giddy. Ditto Curto's summary.
http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2010/6/24/1534610/michael-pinedas-debut
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=== Linking Other Sites Is... ===
Helpful
A basic reason that HTML was invented
Encouraged at... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/24/10
Sitting down to see whassup on the 'net this morning, it suddenly dawned that we'd put a garbage swing on the most obvious Pineda antitype.
The Big Train is the Proto prototype for a fastball-command pitcher, but we don't have to go back that far. :- )
Curt Schilling is the recent pitcher, in the modern game, who was
A big righthander
94-97 mph early in his career
Excellent command, very clean down the driveline
Didn't bother much with other pitches before age 30-32
Early K/BB/HR similar to what Pineda will probably run ... 7.0 / 2.5 / 0.7
It's funny that this slipped our minds,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/24/10
12 Comments
=== Schilling 1998 ff ===
By the time Schilling got to about age 30-32, he had developed a Roger Clemens splitfinger. He threw it a couple of times an inning, but that was not the key to his big leap in strikeouts.
What happened was that Schilling stopped "pitching to contact," started going after strike three up in the zone, and started racking up the 300-K seasons.
Tim McCarver remarked on Schilling's ability to set batters up with the located fastball and then to blow them away with the high "ladder" fastball:
"Schilling has changed from being an occasional sinkerballer who would... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 06/24/10
11 Comments
Data: 6-game winning streak.
Query 1: How much does Z's drive-a-hard-bargain quotient go up with each win? Why wouldn't he tell everyone that Lee stays and we'll make a hard run at a .500 season and see what happens (oh, unless, we're REALLY overwhelmed by something we hear, thank you very much, wink-wink)?
Query 2: Will Jack do a repeat of last year's "seller [Wash], but also a buyer [Ja. Wilson]" bit?
Query 3: Oh, and didn't Z already fleece the Mets? would they really step up for Round 2?
Data: Erik Bedard rehab start -- 3 K in 2.2 IP, 93 mph FB
Query: Is there room for him in this... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/23/10
... six innings, that is. One hit, three BB, five strikeouts. Here is the play-by-play. Pineda had a perfect game going until the ump :- ) walked somebody with two outs in the 4th ... and the only hit on the night was "a soft fly ball" to the right fielder.
Yes, you can assume with Dr. D's blessing that PCL umping is the cause of the pedestrian K/BB tonight. :- ) I don't think I've ever seen a PCL game where there weren't 10 or 20 howlers on ball-strike calls....
Was quite perturbed that Swamp-Thing debut'ed on a Wednesday night when I was working. Like with Meryl Streep in... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/23/10
=== Dr's Prognosis ===
Except for the obvious caveat of health ... there is one, and only one, variable to watch as you enjoy Pineda's monster-stomp to AL impact.
That is: does he really execute that location, in the way that we've caught glimpses of, and in the way the scouts have claimed that he does?
Pineda does touch 100; the broadcasters confirmed that. His motion is a nightmare for hitters; the mechanics are on vid and were on display in ST. If he really has Doug Fister command -- as we have seen glimpses, and as his A/AA games reflect -- he will star in the American League, period... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/23/10
8 Comments
Q. Two games in a row? No. Way.
A. For those just joining us, the U.S.A. nearly got ref-evicted from the World Cup on Wednesday when they had another game-deciding goal disallowed on a bogus call.
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Q. Did this one have "plausible deniability"?
A. This one wasn't (necessarily) cheating; it was just profound bias leading to a blunder by the assistant referee.
When the ball came across to Dempsey, the out-of-position referee could very feasibly have seen the play wrong. In fact, not many people protested (loudly) until they saw the replays that definitively proved that Dempsey... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/23/10
Q. Two games in a row?
A. From the point of view of the U.S. team, it is as though those two things happened on consecutive nights.
And then everybody started arguing that the umps were doing the best they could :- )
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Q. Anything else?
A. The definition of a "weak" call in sports, is when Randy Moss kicks Marcus Trufant's butt fair-and-square on a play ... but then Trufant looks to the ref to bail him out. Hey, I think maybe his toe stepped on the line back there!
The disallowed U.S. goal came on a play in which the U.S. scored a thunderous point-blank goal to break the Algerians'... Read More
Posted by Cool Papa Bell on 06/23/10
19 Comments
sports tournament in the world and an organization that refuses to admit that anything untoward occurred.
Posted by jemanji on 06/22/10
Now there's an idea, Lou back in Seattle.
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1. I'm not especially pro-Lou. I think he's really good at his job, but think the same of Tony LaRussa, and could take him or leave him.
.......
2. I think Don Wakamatsu is the guy to run with in Seattle.
I don't think that Don Wakamatsu looks over at a starting pitcher, picks up his tell, and relays it to the runner on 1B the way that Lou does, but on the other hand, I imagine that Don is a lot more comfortable looking at hard data and using them to drive his decisions.
I suspect that Wakamatsu picked Fister because he liked (... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/22/10
4 Comments
5. Lou presided over the end of 20+ years' worth of expect-to-lose baseball in Seattle. Without any question, he taught the Mariner franchise how to challenge opponents and how to win. I was there. For the expect-to-lose era.
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6. That could easily be the exact issue the Mariners are dealing with in 2010-11 -- a roster with a decent amount of talent, on which the will to win has collapsed.
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7. The shelf life for managers expires at age 55-57, like with Hargrove and 100 other guys, and Lou is I don't even know, what, 10 years past that?
Especially considering the media... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/20/10
1 Comments
Had no idea that Wolfy's blogspot site was still up.
For those who were wondering what D-O-V looked like when we were doing it on a lark, or those who enjoy a little vertigo, here is D-O-V the night the 2005 Angels were robbed of their second championship in four years.
Be Afraid,
Dr. D
Posted by jemanji on 06/20/10
Here is a decent YouTube of the disallowed U.S. winner against Slovenia.
The Seattle Times is running a poll question. Which was the worse call? Jim Joyce's, or the one in the U.S. - Slovenia game? Joyce's call was losing, 41-59, last I saw.
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=== Plausible Deniability ===
There are some referees' blunders that carry with them "plausible deniability." (You can google this phrase that was a bedrock principle of 1970's U.S. geopolitical strategy.)
When the NFL refs called critical holding penalties on the Seahawks in the 2005 Super Bowl, those carried plausible deniability. There was... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/20/10
=== Viability ===
It's funny, because the NFL and MLB give "death sentences" to athletes who get anywhere near the periphery of fixing games or points shaving.
The NFL and MLB figure, rightly, that if the fans began to suspect that they were going to waste a trip to the stadium, on a fixed game, that the fans would stop showing up. Right! I certainly would. I'm a relatively new fan to soccer. With the U.S. game, soccer lost about 50% of its hit points with me. It's not going to take many more of those fiascoes for me to turn it off, for the same reason that I turn off Big Time... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/20/10
20 Comments
=== Who's the Man Behind the Curtain?, cont. ===
... What is the influence in the World Cup, though? You had an American team playing a European team, with an African ref. What does FIFA care whether the U.S. advances over Slovenia? The U.S. TV market is like 150 times Slovenia's. Is it that (1) FIFA is trying to grease England's skids to the knockout round?
Or, perish the thought, (2) DO gamblers influence refs in the World Cup? Is that what happened, was that the African ref was threatened and bribed so that crime bosses could profit?
Some commentators have argued that it was (3)... Read More
Posted by anonymous (not verified) on 06/20/10
Doogie started for the Rainiers today.....
4 IP, 4 hits, 2 ER, O BB, 3 K's. 48 total pitches, 33 strikes.
That should put him on the mound for the M's about Friday.
moe
Posted by SABR Matt on 06/20/10
4 Comments
I turned on the game today because I felt like torturing myself...and I found it 0-0 in the 4th with RRS throwing 92??
I thought his arm was toast?
Posted by anonymous (not verified) on 06/20/10
6 Comments
He homered last night. Again.
Quite a shot that Saunders bashed last nigh, too.
Didn't really need a new thread, I know. All the same, move him up.
moe
Posted by jemanji on 06/18/10
14 Comments
Michael Pineda with 61 strikeouts, 12 walks, and 0 home runs in 61 innings at West Tenn. Lemme read that HR line again.
Before the M's lost 10-of-12, we sold Pineda as a promotion to the big leagues, as a logical attempt to hit the carcass with a lightning bolt. And the M's bullpen is a huge issue: their ERA+ is down around 100 despite four outstanding starters.
At this point, SSI has cashed in the division race, though Jack Zduriencik has not. Under those circumstances, you'd think about preserving Pineda's service time, but if Zduriencik is wanting to revive the 2010 season, then... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/18/10
5 Comments
White Sox vs Nationals is on at 4:00 pm PST, channel 629 Comcast-Pierce (MLBHD).
Strasburg's first two games against PIT and CLE:
12.1 IP
22 K
5 BB
6 H in 47 PA's
.143/.234/.286
16.0 k, 3.7 bb, 1.46 hr
2.0 groundball ratio
2-0, 2.19
So his bid to win every start is intact. :- ) We remember a young Fernando Valenzuela running his W-L quite a ways out in, IIRC, his rookie year, like 6-0 after six starts or something.
..................
Here is a discussion regarding the issue of whether Strasburg throws two different kinds of fastballs: the straight 100 mph four-seamer and a 95 mph "one-... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/18/10
3 Comments
=== 10 Stars Out of 10 ===
Spec barrels into the paint with a tomahawk dunk in the Lee-Deadline Summer 3-on-3. What a concise, to-the-point summary. :low five:
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=== Putz Deal ===
Nowadays cyber-Seattle is trying to name a constellation after Franklin Gutierrez :- ) but it's not like he was Bobby Abreu at the time of the J.J. Putz trade. When Capt Jack grabbed him, Cranklin was a 3rd-4th OF trying to nail down a fulltime job. He was a valuable property, of course, but hardly Jesus Montero-valuable or anything like that.
In my view, the haul of Gutierrez, Carp, Vargas, Chavez, Cleto... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 06/18/10
1 Comments
Seemed to me that a pretty good comp for what Cliff Lee would fetch at the deadline is looking at . . . what Cliff Lee would fetch at the deadline -- in 2009. Key differences: last year he was a 1-1/2 year rental and not a 1/2-season temp. BUT, this year no one can doubt that he is a bona fide Cy Young stud whereas last year there was still some sense of flukishness about him (sure, you'd still prefer Halladay, but last year is wasn't really close; this year it would be).
Anyway, the website indiansprospectinsider.com ranks the haul from the Phillies as follows:
Jason Knapp #6 prospect... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/17/10
14 Comments
Not meaning to counter with too much gusto :- ) but as you know, we're trying to expand the archive at SSI and this discussion right here is pretty fascinating (to me).
Coulda just kept the response in the thread, but hope y'won't mind if we promote it.
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Q. Justin Leone could be an illustration of Mike Wilson's problems, what say? Could get you some vids on Wilson if y'want.
A. Ya, I saw Wilson plenty in ST 2009, so unless his swing has been re-done we've got a good sense of how he attacks the ball. I actually liked his game in the batter's box even back then. (So did Wok... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/16/10
10 Comments
Q. Anybody at Tacoma who deserves the promotion more than Mike Wilson does?
Most of the Rainiers, man, I've never seen it so packed with fringe ML vets. Nelson, Wilson, Bard, Woodward, Hannahan, Vazquez, slap me silly can't you get third-string Mariners off the waiver wire if you're that security-conscious?
Bill James, in the 1980's, found a pretty strong mathematical correlation between these two things:
An MLB ballclub outperforming its expectation, having an UP year
An MLB ballclub whose AAA feeder had a winning record the year before
Bill explained that things go wrong for NL and AL... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/16/10
Q. Is Mike Wilson a player in the Adam Dunn "Three True Outcomes" template?
A. Two days ago, Moe got together a crowd and started playing those South African uvulas.
Mike Wilson's going nuts at Tacoma. Hey, what if you think of Wilson as a type of poor man's Adam Dunn, except you can put him in the field?
Great catch as to the (legit) bustout.
As to the Dunn-liness, when we speak of "Three True Outcomes" players like Branyan, Thome, Dunn et al, we are speaking of hitters who:
Are scary powerful with, of course, very high HR/F rates (check)
Guys who know the strike zone (... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/16/10
Q. Which 26-year-old prospects are worth watching and which are org filler?
A. There's a whale of a big difference between a guy who (1) has been around a minor league so long that he starts beating the pitchers, and (2) a guy whose game evolves. The first guy is no more likely to become an ML starter than he ever was. But that second guy, the guy who changed fundamentally, that's different.
Wilson, as opined in a moment, is definitely presumed to be in category (2).
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Q. What is his swing like?
A. Mikey has a legit football player's body, in combination with a baseball player's... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/16/10
2 Comments
Q. Could Wilson be Cecil Fielder? Maybe he's a super-strong hitter who Eureka! Figured out he can stay back on slow ones, and still torque them?
A. Even Cecil showed more, early on, than Mikey did ... he had a taste in the majors at 21, had a good little stretch at 23, though washed back out at 24-25. But I guess you could say Mike Wilson had a real good flash in Wakamatsu's spring training 2009.
Wouldn't ask Wilson to be Cecil Fielder, and he wouldn't need to be. He could help the Mariners hitting something a bit less than 51 homers.
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Q. Could he play LF?
A. Well, he's got 8... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 06/16/10
6 Comments
When ones pokes around a bit on the Ms 2010 draft, one discovers that streetballer Taijuan doesn't generate nearly the excitement among those in-the-know compared to the 4th-round pick: James Paxton of the Grand Prairie Air Hogs.
Real short version: picked by Toronto out of Kentucky with the 37th overall pick (supplemental) in 09. Didn't come to terms. Ruled ineligible by the NCAA. Filed lawsuit, then dropped it. Signed with the independent American Association. Boras client. Due to rust or nagging injuries or both, didn't dazzle in the indy league. Due to Boras client-hood or... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/15/10
Q. What is Cliff Lee's trade value this July? Is it really only one high-quality prospect and a few fillers?
A. This is the kind of thing that jemanji used to win closets full of baseball caps wagering on. ;- ) If that's the early line, gimme the OVER, with gusto.
Here's a different article that, um, pegs the value of a sizzling-hot rental player at four, not one, high-quality prospects. It's not back-of-the-envelope math; it's a review of this trade:
Two months of Mark Teixeira, who had disavowed the Rangers, "hamstringing" their "leverage"
Bit part
... for ...
Jarrod... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/15/10
Q. What is a postseason worth?
A. If Cliff Lee's "four games" put you in the postseason -- and most divisions are decided by few games -- what is your trip to the postseason worth, ROI in U.S. dollars?
Not just the revenue from that one postseason. How about residual TV and radio income? How about positioning for other free agent negotiations? Does attendance change next year, if you brought in Cliff Lee -- and he put you in the playoffs? How many $4 Pepsis did the Phillies sell this year?
................
We've seen the value of a single postseason estimated at $20M, just through the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/15/10
Q. Which prospects do you trade?
A. You will notice that (say) the New York Mets are always glad to give you these 5 guys, but no way no how will they give you these 3.
Notice that the buying team has control of which prospects it gives up. It plays a shell game, and when the other team names players that it doesn't believe in -- maybe players who are a little injured! -- then it deals.
This is a huge unmeasurable that changes the game on July 31. In ANY blockbuster deal, the buying team will say NO to the deal if it has to give up players that it likes best. So here's yet another "... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/15/10
2 Comments
Q. So why do you see people underselling the value of a rental?
A. This is nothing personal, but let's put it so you can understand it.
Some guys are tight with a buck. In real life, as well as in rotoball. That's not an insult. I've created some problems for myself for not being tight with a buck when maybe I shoulda been. :- )
But some guys love their pennies. And they loooo-oove underpaid, $-efficient year 2 and year 3 ballplayers. That's why they publish articles arguing that a rookie Adam Jones, by himself, is worth more than Erik Bedard even straight up. Obviously you're not... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/14/10
2 Comments
Q. Why a POTD on Montero?
A. SSI can think of worse things to do with the next month than wallow in the possibilities of a Cliff Lee ransom. :- ) The Yankees are obviously a very real threat to acquire Lee in July, and serious reports are that the Mariners are asking about Montero as the feature player.
Last year, the Yankees reportedly offered the Mariners "any five prospects / young players" for Felix other than Joba, Hughes, and two other guys who weren't Montero.
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Q. Who is he?
A. A 20-year-old behemoth catcher who is argued as (1) a top-100 prospect, (2) a... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/14/10
4 Comments
Q. What's the upside?
A. BaseballHQ has him ranked as a better prospect than Buster Posey! And Posey is as good as it gets, excepting the galaxy-class Mauers and Strasburgs and Lincecums.
They, and others, state that Montero has as much power as anybody in the minors -- he's a Dunn-level 75, 80 power guy, or real close to that.
And, get this, he's got HIT (contact) ability well better than average into the bargain. The compact stroke and the natural feel for the ball gives him that.
.............
You might wonder about his EYE, but what would his EYE be right now if he were in low... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/14/10
5 Comments
Q. So why would the Yankees give a guy like that up?
A. In case you haven't noticed, the Yankees construct their 25-man roster a little differently than the Mariners, or even the Mets, do.
Much more difficult for them to phase in an unpredictable rookie right in the middle of their World Series strategy. Jesus Montero is going to catch a rotation full of 32-year-old Cy Young candidates? Uh huh.
Much easier for them to deal for a Cliff Lee, and then buy their FA catcher off the FA market.
................
Anyway, the Yankees have Francisco Cervelli, a 24-year-old catcher up now and he's... Read More
Posted by anonymous (not verified) on 06/14/10
4 Comments
In each and every MLB season that he has played, Adam Dunn has more strikeouts than games played. 50% of his PA's result in one of three outcomes.....homers, walks or K's. (in 2008, in 651 PA's...he had 326 H's, W's, or K's. 668 PA's in '09...331 HWK's. 261 PA's this year...117 HWK's. It holds throughout his career. Amost 50% HWK's in each year).
Yet he is a very valuable bat. If he could field at all, he would be a tremendous player.
He hits .250----Walks .130-----and mashes.
Tacoma's Mike Wilson is kind of like that. Doesn't hit for quite the average (Dunn averaged 300ish in his one... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/13/10
10 Comments
Sounder At Heart up front and center with the soccer action. Good job blokes.
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=== Great Theater ===
"Fascinating match" from wire to wire, as the British ESPN announcer marvelled one hour in. That'll do for us too.
One bone that I'll pick, with U.S. West Coast fan reaction in general, is that U.S. 'net rats were falling way too much over themselves to "be objective" and disavow any U.S. credit in the game. Most chat threads I've seen focused on Green's catastrophe, reinforcing the pre-game script that the U.S. is not competitive.
The game was very competitive, as as... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/13/10
2 Comments
=== 2009 Mariners ===
I would personally compare the U.S. team to last year's M's. The U.S. team has a grand total of 0 players in the world's top 100.
Granted, Landon Donovan's fans do argue him for top 100. To me he's not top 100, but he is unquestionably an impact player in the EPL or Spanish premier league. He's 100-200 somewhere.
For Yanks just browsing the World Cup coverage, that's Donovan at left, on loan from the LA Galaxy to powerful #8 finisher Everton. Toffees fans, skeptical on his arrival, took approximately three games to decide that Donovan was the best player... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/13/10
11 Comments
=== U.S. Basketball ===
In 1992, NBA players "competed" in the Olympics for the first time ever, and the laugh-fests were wire to wire.
Jordan, Magic, Bird & co. won games by scores like 116-48 all the way through. The U.S. won the quarterfinals by 38 points, the semis over Lithuania by 51 points (!) and then the second-toughest team in the world (Yugoslavia*) was stomped by 32, and it could have been more.
That's sort of what English soccer fans expect against the U.S., and I sensed this residual expectation in the chat threads I read...
But just eight years later, 2000, the NBA (Ray... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/10/10
18 Comments
Q. No, you shed Lee. Or don't you?
A. I was never as attached to El Cartelua as you amigos (justifiably) are.
Felix has never made me forget Randy Johnson. But Cliff Lee is juuussssst about doing that. What a joy to watch that man pitch. I'll take 200 more games of 'im, please.
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Q. You don't seriously think the Mariners could sign Lee.
A. I know as much as you do about the contract negotiations. But I do know this for a fact: ballplayers don't get as vindictive about losing seasons as we fans do.
..........
You remember 2007? In late June, Sports Weekly asked us for a... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/10/10
Q. Maybe Wakamatsu could "call Felix out" like he did in early 2009, and Felix could resume greatness.
A. If what we're hearing is remotely close to the truth, Wakamatsu doesn't have the political capital to call Mike Carp out.
That's the last thing Wakamatsu can afford to do, is square off for a cage match with the Franchise Player. We are maneuvered into a situation here where Felix doesn't have to listen to a word that he doesn't want to.
Of course, knowing how principled Wakamatsu is, he just might do it. SSI predicts that it would end very badly for its man Wok, but we wouldn't put... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/10/10
Q. Is it over?
A. We can tell you, with the 100% certititude of a Seattle weatherman predicting highs Mariners think it's over.
Which is why the daggers have stab'd Caesar. Caesar Wok, that is.
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Q. What's this? SSI quitting while down 18 in the second quarter?
A. Anybody who quits because they're down 18 in the second quarter deserves to play H-O-R-S-E with an M's draft pick. That, or have his court shoes forcibly ripped off his feet so he can go become a barefoot internet chess player.
Have some guts, dude.
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Q. Quit why, then?
A. You quit if you're outmanned.
If you... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/10/10
1 Comments
Q. May 29?
A. The second Anaheim game. The M's had won 5-of-7 and the first Angel game. Felix had a shutout through 7 innings. Win this one and you've already taken the Angel series, game in hand, and you pull to within 5-6 games. In May.
But with Felix laboring through the 0's, the "busted-out" M's offense was very easily locked down by Jered Weaver on three hits.
Inning after inning, Weaver sauntered out to the mound and effortlessly humiliated the M's offense. The M's, up 1-0, realized during that game that they weren't good enough.
The Angels did find a way to tie it on Felix,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/10/10
3 Comments
A commenter says,
It's amusing to me that some of the same people that fall all over themselves apologizing for Bradley's very real transgressions are alarmed at a teenager's MySpace page.
Chances are, you look at a hundred My Space pages of kids his age - and especially kids with Type A personalities - and a healthy number of them are going to look just like that. And in ten years, those kids are going to be young Doctors and Lawyers and business managers.
I shudder to think what my MySpace page would have looked like at 17. It would have been bad. I was a complete idiot back then... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/10/10
16 Comments
Q. Maybe it's true that we should have preferred Ackley to Strasburg. Strasburg's motion looks like Prior's to me.
A. Ackley's a hitter and Strasburg a pitcher. No doubts there.
...............
Remember that, our amateur-attempts to understand pitching motions aside ... the harder a guy throws a ball and the more people he strikes out, the better his chances are.
Take 100 rookies in baseball history who had huge K rates, and another 100 rookies with tiny K rates, and I'll guarantee you that the high-K group suffered many, many fewer injuries. Nolan Ryan, Randy Johnson and Roger... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/09/10
8 Comments
Have you seen this article?
Anybody catch what inning it was? Picture the evening from a closer's perspective - say David Aardsma getting four days off, and then going 7 innings in extras, hitting 100 all the way and hitting 103 (?) in, say, the 16th.
Posted by jemanji on 06/09/10
2 Comments
Q. Am not sure Taijuan Walker is that much of a basketball jones. Where are his D-1 offers in hoops?
A. Totally agree with Spec on this, as usual.
Walker's pregame hops are fine, but it's not like he's Vin Carter out there. He's a real good state-level high school player. I wouldn't oversell his basketball talent at all, at least not until hearing more.
I was a little stunned to turn over, see the pics of Walker dunking in a game, with his hand barely above the rim, as if they were poster-worthy. I think you have to get that high TO dunk, don't you? A guy 6'5" getting his wrist to the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/08/10
10 Comments
== An Era Begins ===
Some corners warned not to weight one game too heavily ... that whatever happened in the Pirates' game, it wouldn't matter much. "Good game or bad game, you'll need a while to figure out whether Strasburg is good...."
We'll take exactly the opposite view. This one game showed you everything you needed to know (presuming that you didn't yet know it in 2009!).
The 2-D logic: the Pirates aren't very good ... other pitchers have had high debut scores or low ones and gone on to careers X, Y, Z ... etc.
The 3-D logic: the pitcher holds the ball, and there is a... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/08/10
6 Comments
=== Strasburg's Fastball ===
Just getting loose, Strasburg airmailed the first two pitches of the game in at 97 mph. He was just getting loose. I rarely noticed him drop to 97 again. He sat 98-99 and threw plenty of 100's.
.....................
But don't get distracted by the radar gun. Strasburg's fastball might as well have been 110. Randy Johnson and Nolan Ryan threw 97-98 fastballs that looked completely different from Daniel Cabrera or JJ Putz fastballs.
I don't know what it is -- deception, or a difference in the delta of the velocity as the pitch travels, or what, but there are... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/08/10
9 Comments
=== Hook, Line and Sinker Dept. ===
LOL. Dr. D grins broadly and hits the treble-hook, with gusto. Good stuff Matty.
For whatever reason, the 9-foot-arc slo-pitch "Intro" posts get the juices flowing... SSI heartily approves of the tag-team elbow drops...
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=== Strasburg Hits the Majors ===
For those wanting a recap of Strasburg's first game, you can read an info-taining one here, notably in $50 Mills, Eh? Sold to Young Frankenstein. Granted, they're dated 16 months ago, but don't hold the time-warping against us. ::big smile kiddies::
Those just joining us might start with POTD:... Read More
Posted by SABR Matt on 06/08/10
8 Comments
Stephen Strausburg's first MLB start included:
21 outs
14 K (!)
4 H
2 ER (on one elevated fastball taken out for a dinger)
0 BB (!)
Opening day bonanza where the cops literally had to turn away 8,000 fans who couldn't fit into the ballpark to watch the game.
The W
Yowza.
Posted by jemanji on 06/08/10
Spec with his usual info-taining post on the M's latest draft pick :- ) What a subject!
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=== Ran for 1,500 yards? Sounds like a 6th-rounder to me, Dept. ===
My cornball opinion is that this kind of athleticism actually seems to correlate with ballplayers disappointing at the highest levels ... just a thought, nothing more...
The fundamental challenge in baseball involves exquisite hand-eye coordination, for pitchers as well.
John Benson rule: The difference between an AAA pitcher and an ML All-Star is tiny tiny tiny in the absolute sense... it's like, AAA... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/08/10
8 Comments
=== Batting Averages for Pitchers ===
Bill James observed that the "blow 'em away lefties" have a tendency to be terrible hitters. In my view they tend to actually be physically-awkward geeks, with Randy Johnson being the prototype. I've noticed that the typical Cy Young pitcher tends to be a worse hitter than other pitchers are.
For every Greg Maddux who handles the bat well (IIRC) there are a dozen Randy Johnsons, Matt Cains (103 K in his first 199 AB's), Ryan Dempsters, Aaron Harangs, Brett Myerses, Chris Carpenters, and Barry Zitos...
If I worked for the Hardball Times,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/08/10
13 Comments
=== Exceptions that Prove the Rule ===
Two exceptions to this: (1) the stolen-base king. There isn't a reason in the world you can't take a track star, teach him to hit decently, and make an impact ML ballplayer out of him because of his speed on offense and defense. Despite the fact that he will probably never be more than a middle-of-the-pack ML hitter as such.
(2) The super-powerful hitter/5-tool guy, the Bo Jackson type. Even this guy won't become a franchise player, but if his hand/eye coordination is (say) class-AA level, the rest of his attributes may tell...
To be useful to me,... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 06/08/10
3 Comments
Sure, go here first: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W4-ZlotX4yk
That's the pitching video.
Then check out the hoops action: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OO3yUK5VV3E
or (still photo): http://www.maxpreps.com/photo/gallery.aspx?athleteid=ac4548f8-7b19-491b-885a-e97f0e5485de&imageid=19a9cb07-b4ad-416c-971d-a8f88adff35d&ssid=61c3c85c-e2fb-45d7-841a-0573891bad91#imageid=818697aa-200a-4968-a5be-ab221ee17331 (would just import it, but it's copyrighted, so I don't want to cause any issues)
And, I'm pretty sure he's No. 12 in the dark shirt in this vid messing around with some dunking action... Read More
Posted by anonymous (not verified) on 06/07/10
5 Comments
Hang with me for a bit....
Pete Rose played three seasons in the minors ('60-'62), two seasons of D ball and one at the A level. His last season at A he hit .330-.431-.500. The Reds then saw some magic the next spring, certainly most/much of that in his willingness to get his uni dirty, and kept him up. He was their fulltime 2B that year ('63), batting at the top of the order (almost 700 PA's in 156 games)What a brazen move by the Reds, jumping a young guy three levels, putting him in a critical IF position and at the top of the order. His first two years in the bigs he hit .273-.334.371... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/04/10
5 Comments
Inside Pitch sez,
I loved Casey Kotchman coming up, he did a lot of things right, but he was trending in the right direction. Injuries had been his big question mark and just when it looked like he had turned the corner and was finally going to be healthy he was beaned sliding into second base.... Since then.. NOTHING.
I have no idea if there is any real connection, but the man has been in a steady regression since then. He should have been Mark Grace part 2, possibly with a tad more power but it's just never happened. His pitch recognition has completely fallen apart which... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/03/10
21 Comments
Michael Pineda should be promoted to Safeco immediately.*
The Mariners have issues in the bullpen;
They could use a dynamic surge of energy to freshen away that lingering stench that the late losses have left; and
A year in relief would baby Pineda's arm.
You don't have to get into a Morrow-type fiasco. Just run an Earl Weaver script: bring up a star rookie in the pen where he belongs, let him learn the league, and maybe stick him in the rotation in September.
...............
But the biggest reason is the late-inning voltage that it would supply. The personality, the swagger.
That 7',... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/02/10
4 Comments
Q. What would happen if they replayed the game?
A. The commissioner of baseball would overrule Jim Joyce's decision, declare Donald out at first, and the game would resume from that point.
This would mean that all plays subsequent to the original umpire's decision would be cancelled.
Resuming from the point of the overrule, in this case, would be resuming just after the 27th out had occurred. This would mean that Crowe would not come to the plate for the fourth time. The players would (in theory) take their positions, the umpire would call an out at first base, and the players would... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/01/10
Tuesday's game was different.
You went into the game happy that Figgins and Lopez were now used to their new guitars, were rockin' and rollin', and had their amps turned up.
You went in knowing that Ichiro was swinging great, that Gutierrez is storming the walls of Castle .400 OBP, and that Sweeney and Bradley were capable of driving in tough runs.
All of a sudden, you knew that if the bottom of the lineup happened to get on base, that you would probably see some 3-run rallies. You felt confident that you were going to score, and as a matter of fact you did score.
When I was a kid,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/01/10
=== Chone Gone ===
Monday night, Figgins got his two hits on line drives off vicious pitcher's pitches.
First inning Tuesday, Blackbeard fought him through 8 pitches, precisely 0 of which were centered. On the 8th, a 91 fastball that wasn't even a strike, Figgins reached out and lined it hard into CF.
This followed an Ichiro line-drive single off a curve ball that was way down below the strike zone. Blackbeard musta been wondering what hit him.
.............
In the 4th, Figgins ripped a double down the RF line ... off a fastball that was well in on the hands, and hand-high, a quality jam... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/01/10
Q. Would SSI have made this move?
A. I don't know.
Probably. It would depend on my assessment of Kanekoa Texeria's chances to blow another three division games for me, next week.
If I shared Don Wakamatsu's fear that, after four blown games, the rookie Texeira was now about to implode, I sure as shootin' would, yes.
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Q. Is SSI a Sean White fan?
A. We're pretty sure that we were the first ones to call baloney on Sean White, back in about 1998 or so. He's not my kind of pitcher. We're well aware of his BaseballHQ meatballiness.
In spring training, we signed off on 22.5... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/01/10
Q. What would cause them to ignore xFIP on White?
A. My guess is that it is the fact that White does not blow up on the mound.
Look, xFIP or no xFIP, there are many situations in baseball that require only that the new reliever throw strikes.
When you are ahead of the Anaheim Angels 7-2, and you have a tremendous defense on the field, that is one of those times. The question isn't a 4.00 xFIP vs a 5.00 xFIP. The question is volatility vs reliability. If Kanekoa Texiera had not BB'ed 2 hitters, and given up another 2 hits in one IP on Sunday, the Seattle Mariners win that game... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/01/10
Q. All you can go on is what he's shown so far, though, right?
A. Nah. You have to project where he's going next.
This is not a quibble. If you don't recognize that pitchers can and do change, and change radically, you haven't been watching baseball. Just this year, Jason Vargas scrapped his lousy curve ball, went FB-change only, and completely transmogrified as a pitcher.
And it's not theoretical with regard to Texeira. Tex wasn't an ML pitcher in the first place. It is a genuine crapshoot what he'll do next. He could become Trevor Hoffman, or (more likely) he could become Norm... Read More