July 2010
Posted by malcontent on 07/31/10
6 Comments
While the trade deadline didn't see the Mariners make any last second moves, it did give us a peak into how Jack Zduriencik valued his trade pieces, as the Mariners watched as 3 players similar to their most valued tradable players were moved today.
Let's start with David Aardsma, one of he and League were supposedly all but assured to be on the way out. It's not even much of a stretch to find the player like Aardsma; Octavio Dotel was traded to the Dodgers for James McDonald and Andrew Lambo. Dotel is a near perfect match for Aardsma, lots of strike outs, lots of walks, closing... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/30/10
5 Comments
Good read, as usual, from Geoff Baker on the fact that the M's are moving runners over less often than other teams.
We especially like Geoff's clear, clean writing as it pertains to (low) assumption of audience knowledge. He starts by explaining the difference between RISP and productive outs, and does so without conveying any impatience about having to do so.
Even when I know a subject like the back of my hand, I still prefer for a writer/speaker to use low assumption-of-knowledge. It helps me get my bearings quickly and hop up the ladder to more-organized thinking... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/30/10
Q. Are there times when moving runners along is good?
A. (1) when you have two runners you're moving along, Dr. D is always pleased, but note even here the massive power of an out:
0 out, men on 1B + 2B = 157 runs per 100 innings
1 out, men on 2B + 3B = 147 runs per 100 innings!
Runners on base, nobody out, that's the truly scary situation for the defense. You don't want to give it up!, by bunting (or by swinging weakly for the right side).
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Q. But if you swing for the right side, the ball might go through and give you a hit for a bonus. Does the math cover that?
A. It's more than... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/30/10
7 Comments
Q. Maybe the Mariners should be giving up outs, since their team OPS+ is about 20, which skews the RE way down below the tipping point ?
A. From my standpoint, it's just reducing your (non-existent) margin for error. The M's can't score 4 runs with 27 outs. How are they going to do so with 23 outs? And by giving away all their best rallies?
Still, with Wilson or Johnson at the plate, or against a great pitcher, yeah. Manufacture runs and hope dearly for your own pitcher to be on fire that day.
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Q. So, why do bad teams do a bad job of moving runners over? They're losing... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/30/10
3 Comments
Q. Is Don Wakamatsu a third-order thinker on his "productive outs"?
A. Bill James' and Baseball Prospectus' and Tango's and Etc.'s Run Expectancy charts are such simple data that it is impossible to imagine that Wakamatsu, or any ML manager, is oblivious to them.
Again, Baker relays to us that Wak is trying to persuade his hitters to make productive outs:
What we're talking about here, and what frustrates manager Don Wakamatsu, is situational hitting. Because if you get a guy to third base with only one out, there are ways to score that runner without a hit.
I would bet money that... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 07/29/10
11 Comments
Just taking a look at some splits and then double-splits for my man Mike (you can look it up -- not that you would -- but I've been on the bandwagon since High Desert).
Admittedly small amounts of data, so no real conclusions being drawn. For info-tainment purposes only, please.
Obviously, handedness stands out first:
vs. RHP: .258/.343/.460
vs. LHP: .200/.234/.356
So far, a solid contributor against righties, but seeming to really struggle against LHP.
And another thing that stands out is Safeco-friendliness:
Home: .250/.345/.474
Away: .237/.290/.398
4 hits in this ChiSox series boosted... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/28/10
Q. Any video available on Lueke?
A. If you know of any, please hook me up :- )
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Q. What's the template, then?
A. There are a number of tall RH relief aces with ballista-arms who (1) throw a slider so tight-spin that it's harder to hit than a knuckleball and (2) throw an easy 95.
Back in the day, you had Jeff Nelson, of course, you had Kerry Wood (who has abandoned his slider), you had Rich Harden, KRod and, before he got hurt, Mark Lowe. Guys like that.
Nowadays the Super-Slider kings of the road include Daniel Bard, Carlos Marmol, and Luke Gregerson.
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Q. Is it legit to... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/28/10
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Q. Sorry, still don't buy it. Sliders to get the off-platoon out? Consistently? Whatever the numbers say, I just can't see it.
A. OK, then visualize Randy Johnson's slider against RH's.
Or Erik Bedard's hook against RH's. Or Cliff Lee's. Picture's worth 1,000 words.
How did the Big Unit strike out 2,000 right handers with his slider? It just moved too much.
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Q. OK, you got me there. Should Lueke throw his change?
A. SSI does not recommend that a pitcher with two "70" pitches start dinking around with a third one, even in the rotation. Would the 1990s Randy Johnson have... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/28/10
5 Comments
Q. Bottom line on the personal baggage?
A. He's been judged. And punished.
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Q. Will Lueke be able to put it behind him, though?
A. He will, and apparently has. As Mariner Central denizens pointed out, he's representing himself as a devout Christian these days. Twit-O-Vision :- ) translation as to what the Scripture-list conveys has been suggested; we may do that shortly...
Lueke has been punished, but he remains an opportunity for interest groups to make statements furthering their agendas. If that means the destruction of Lueke's career and life, small price to pay to raise... Read More
Posted by anonymous (not verified) on 07/27/10
The Mariners are a Seattle, WA based Western Division MLB professional baseball team. The current home of the team is in Safeco Field in the International District of Seattle. The team mascot is Mariner Moose and his jersey shares the team colors with the players - navy blue, teal, and metallic silver. The name "Mariners" came about due to the impact of marine culture in Seattle, WA. The Mariners have never played in a World Series and are owned by the corporate subsidiary - Nintendo of America.
The team has an interesting cultural tradition started in 2007 by broadcaster Mike Blowers... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/24/10
15 Comments
The optimistic take to the GM's 'non-response'? ... is simply that it's easier for Capt Jack to sell a GM on a "change of scenery" scenario, if Figgins isn't benched the week leading up to the trade deadline. Do you want to park your star's keister on the bench and then tell your friends to go scout him?
If Zduriencik apprised Wok of this, back channel, that he's working some things ... then Wok can go about his business with no loss of face.
It would be a Betancourt reprise -- he plays for a little while but at the first chance, he's off the team. The Betancourt Powerflush swirled... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/23/10
9 Comments
=== Mecha-Pineda ===
Zduriencik recently hinted that Pineda is going to be a Mariner shortly.
Mega Pineda -- hey, when the other team goes with that, how can we not -- is at 111 innings on the year, and you'd have to assume that the taxi meter is down to about 40-50 more innings this season. So, if he's going to get the same kind of taste that Doug Fister did in 2009, prior to a next-season splash, Pineda will have to be up approximately next start or the one after.
:shrug: There isn't the slightest point in delaying Pineda another couple of starts. What's supposed to happen... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/23/10
12 Comments
Bet you've never seen a guy strike out the side, three innings in a row, and get yanked after five for it? Me either.
..............
86 pitches and done. Corroborates our suspicion that Swamp-Thing is battling through a bit of fatigue.
That, or the Rainiers, River Cats, Zduriencik, and/or all of minor league baseball finally realized that there was no more point in his pitching to minor-league hitters. Has never been any point, actually. (For those just joining us, Zduriencik was reportedly at the game to "scout" Pineda -- whale of a cheek this guy has, blowing off SSI's crystal-clear... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/23/10
Soundtrack
The song on which Kurt Cobain got the hang of it, and made rock a weapon again.
He spent a day, a week, or three acid trips (or make up your own story) listening to the Beatles and then, properly soaked in musical ask-and-answer, came up with his first coherent song.
The producer was blown away, but couldn't discern quite what Cobain was getting at. To which Kurt replied, "It's about a girl."
I need an easy friend
I do ... With a bat to lend
I did, Think you fit this shoe
I do .... But DO you have a clue?
They'll all take advantage while
You hang me out to dry
And I can'... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/23/10
Q. Hey! "Good Bad and Ugly" is a cyber-plagiarization!
A. Yeah. From Detectovision.com, circa 2003. :- ) Used to be a fave paint-by-numbers back in the day. (Now we have newer, shlockier paint-by-numbers.)
I think I mighta seen GB&U someplace else, though, so it's cool.
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Q. What is going on with this team? Is this "just one of those things that happens when you play 162 games plus 30 in spring training"?
A. They'll do everything they can to spin it that way.
What is not "just one of those things," is (1) Figgins telling Don Wakamatsu off in the dugout, on TV, and (2) doing so... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/23/10
3 Comments
Q. Why a kerfuffle of this magnitude, though?
A. During the six minutes in which the ball was rolling through the infield, my 18-year-old son was literally open-mouthed. "This is like Little League," he gasped, deliberately ruling out Pony League and high school for comp purposes.
I turned to him and said, quote, "now THAT is the play that gets a manager fired right after the ballgame." Serious as a heart attack. Truth on SSI, babe, this was a manager-busting visual.
Sho nuff, next half-inning they were advising us that there had been a scuffle in the dugout, involving the manager... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/23/10
2 Comments
Q. What will Zduriencik do?
A. We'll find out real quick, what Zduriencik's attitude is about Don Wakamatsu. If this happened with Mike Scioscia, the guy would be suspended or DFA'ed right in the middle of a pennant race. Oh, wait...
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Q. Does SSI have a recommendation on Figgins' contract yet?
A. Like everybody else, we thought it was genius at the time. OBP, defense, below-market ... add to us, subtract from them.
We do believe -- and link us up if we're wrong -- that SSI was a good bit more anxious about the deal than others.
Figgins was one of the 10 best players in the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/23/10
26 Comments
Q. Has Wakamatsu earned Zduriencik's loyalty?
A. Stuff happens. How could Capt Jack know what Figgins was going to do this year? Lopez? Bradley? Kotchman? Well, OK, he coulda read SSI and figured it out about Kotchman and Snell :- )
Zduriencik's great. But this season imploded because Capt Jack let the April 6th offense fall below critical mass. (That and the fact that the rebuild was further behind than we all, other than James, thought, of course.)
E does not equal MC^2 when you're talking bats and gloves. You can't replace #3 and #4 hitters with extra leather. Name the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/23/10
7 Comments
Q. Would this kerfuffle have happened if Mike Sweeney had been on the ballclub all year?
A. 3:1 against, vigorish going to SSI.
Fangraphs amigos have the luxury of coaching baseball cards. It makes the game pretty simple. (I love fangraphs.com.) Real 25-man rosters have to provide against mutiny, ghost clippers and oil spills.
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Q. Can chemistry turn a 100-loss pile of "talent" into a winner?
A. No.
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Q. Can chemistry turn a 100-win collection of "talent" into a loser?
A. No. The Miami Heat are going to win 60 games next year, whether the chemistry melts or not.
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Q. Can good... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 07/23/10
7 Comments
This is just a totally subjective list of the young guys in the organization that I find interesting, organized by Baseball Reference season-age (which may not line up with chronological age at a given time), with a notation as to how they were acquired. Just something that I find interesting to do, so I thought it was worth sharing. There are absolutely some guys that I'm leaving out (obviously, James Paxton goes on if he signs).
I am not totally clear on the international signings and wasn't going to chase down every one, but if it appeared that they signed after 08, then I gave credit to... Read More
Posted by mojician on 07/21/10
4 Comments
After watching some of the futile games this last weekend, there seems to be an unsung hero on the Seattle roster. Who? None other than Brandon League.
The theme of the season is OPS. No one has it.
Seattle always loses close games and tie games. Seattle loses almost every game that goes into extra innings, and Seattle loses almost every game where there is a close score. These games are embarrassing and they have been the tone for the season. The fans and the team always find themselves hoping for big hits that will never come.
In these games, Brandon League is usually the man of the... Read More
Posted by SABR Matt on 07/21/10
20 Comments
So...I think we need to discuss where the organization stands for 2011. I'm quite sure Zduriencik is having very much this kind of internal debagte with his staff and with the higher-ups...when you've lost the season at the AS break, all of your efforts need to be geared toward maximizing your chances of improving in the next campaign.
So what does Seattle have penciled into its' 25-man roster as likely-to-return pieces it can try to build around?
THE LINE-UP:
RF) Ichiro Suzuki
3B) Chone Figgins
DH) Milton Bradley (right now, we're stuck here...sorry)
1B) Justin Smoak
CF) Franklin Gutierrez... Read More
Posted by TAD on 07/20/10
16 Comments
I started typing this out yesterday since then both Geoff Baker and Jeff Sullivan at Lookout Landing have posted some thoughts about our 2B Chone Figgins. I will go ahead and submit the post for those who would like to comment about what should or could be done with Figgins.
Of all the moves our Zduriencik has made over the last couple of years the one move that he and the Mariner fans may come to regret the most is his free agent signing of 32 yr old Chone Figgins. The original vision was to have Chone offer a one two punch at the top of the order that apply immense pressure to the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/18/10
3 Comments
Great thread, as usual, at Mariner Central. In the space of ten posts, they triangulate the truth ;- ) into a narrow little parsec of Romulan Sector IX ...
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Q. For the purposes of naming a hits king, would Ichiro's NPB + MLB hits have to exceed Rose's MLB + MiLB hits? If it did, who cares who has the most MLB + MiLB anything?
A. Tell the MLB All-Stars that Team Japan is a PCL-level ballclub. You think a team of Bees, Rainiers and SkySox are going to kick Peavy's, Oswalt's, Braun's, and Jeter's butts the way that Japan does -- every time?
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Q. If NPB isn't minor league, what is it then... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/18/10
Q. So could Ichiro be the hits king?
A. If, say, Jackie Robinson had 3,400 hits in the National League after age 27, and 1,400 in the Negro Leagues before age 27, would people consider Jackie or Rose the hits king?
It's unfortunate that we wouldn't have a perfect comparison between Jackie and Pete Rose. But if Jackie sailed past Rose by 100's of hits, as Ichiro probably will ... and 70% of the hits were in the majors ... sure. We'd call Jackie the hits king.
If Josh Gibson joined the majors at 30, and hit 600 homers in the majors, and another 500 in the Negro Leagues, would we call him or... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/18/10
17 Comments
Q. What is Bill James' Favorite Toy?
A. A little fuzzy-logic device that James developed to estimate remaining career value. It's valuable because James has spent 100's, if not 1,000's, of hours swimming through almanacs developing his pattern recognition. You haven't.
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Q. What does it predict for Ichiro?
A. It predicts three remaining seasons of 225 hits or so and then retirement. This is perfectly reasonable for the average 35-year-old star, but is of course "broken" by Ichiro, as the BABIP formulas are.
775 remaining hits as the over/under for Ichiro? How many baseball... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/18/10
19 Comments
Q. Who's the better ballplayer - Rose or Ichiro?
A. Ichiro is a little better than Rose was. I grew up watching the Big Red Machine, by the way.
It's kind of an Ernie Banks vs Cal Ripken argument: Ernie had two unbelievable seasons, and Pete Rose at ages 27-28 was better than Ichiro was at any moment in time. But over their careers, Ichiro's better than Rose.
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Q. Why do you say?
A. They're very similar players. Rose had a 118 OPS+, while Ichiro's is 117. Both are the 200-hit guys of their eras.
But defense counts too, as does baserunning. Ichiro and Rose were cast from the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/16/10
Q. Right on cue, says Roto Champ. :- )
A. Ya. For those just joining us, on Thursday Taro asked about Smoak's swing.
Above reproach, we insisted. But, when any man is battling inner hysteria, his sports movements are going to look terrible.
Psychobabble? Ask any (a-n-y) golfer. Put him on the first tee with his boss for the first time, and what happens? You guessed it. Not only do four checkpoints unravel, but the timing implodes, the smoothness ... isn't, the dynamics become static, and he grounds the club and misses the ball.
You don't judge the guy's swing... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/16/10
Q. Aiki-Poetry recital, continued?
A. Continuing point 1, the casual directly-rearward hand motion...
...
In the second picture here, you can sense the moving-without-motion aiki principle: Smoak hasn't committed anything, but the elbow is way high and the angle of the bat is venomous.
Imperceptible, almost under-the-skin movement, but horrific latent power. Steven Seagal would be proud.
...
(2) Notice, just as the bat starts forward, the iron "batter's box" that forms a trapezoid along his chest and upper arms. One of the many ways in which his awesome strength and... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/16/10
7 Comments
Q. Any ML comps for this swing?
A. You know whose swing does look like this quite often? Russell Branyan's. He also taps himself easily in the backside at times, because of the slingshot effect.
But of course, the Muscle isn't reputed to have Smoak's 75 HIT talent (on the 20-80 scale). Imagine Branyan if he could square the ball like Jeter. Remember now, Smoak's ability to hit for AVG is an absolute given. A few people fret (like I did, two weeks ago!) whether he's got the mojo for the SoDo.
Asked and answered. Smoak has a Branyan swing and once he starts anticipating, he's... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/16/10
Q. What's the SSI take on the Yankees throwing themselves on the floor and foaming at the mouth over the Lee trade?
A. You know what, I've never read the NY Post much, but this Joel Sherman guy was im-press-iff the last week or two. If you read this article, this one, and this one, you have Yankees' sources (via Sherman) alleging the precise scenario that Dr. D assumed when the trade flipped from Montero to Smoak.
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Q. So what if Capt Jack played Cashman. All the better that we smoaked the Yankees.
A. IFF (that's, "if") Zduriencik acted as the Yankees allege, the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/16/10
13 Comments
Q. Why are the Yankees being so shrill?
A. There are umpteen times, in negotiations in all walks of life, when you ask a business partner to make a really paaaaiiiinnnnnnful concession. The only way he will agree to do that, is if you incentivize him. Big time.
The only incentivization the M's reasonably had, was to say "the deal's done if you say Montero", and sure enough, this is what the Yankees allege that they did.
As one of the GM's in the Sherman articles pointed out, what the M's should have done (and maybe did do) was say, "Okay, if Montero's in, let us check back with one club... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/16/10
3 Comments
Offered as a front-page post:
....................
Ackley homers in 1st AAA at bat!
Life is good!
- Valued poster
........................
As you're about to see, the Truth serves as legal defense in libel and slander lawsuits, but does not guarantee safety with "The Hanging Scorekeeper" at SSI. This one gets E-6, three bases, and Wilson ripped his abductor on the play.
That Ackley homered, and that life is good, are true. "Truth" is necessary but not sufficient at Seattle Sports Insider if you're going to put stuff on the front page. :- ) Churchill, Sullivan and Shields don't offer... Read More
Posted by SABR Matt on 07/12/10
3 Comments
Sung to the strains of Bryan Adams - Summer of '69:
I watched my first six-game plan...
...bought it at the Cannons' site.
They played until their fingers blistered...
...it was the summer of '95.
Me and the family...
...we had a blast in the summer sun.
Mags left, Rose Jr. got called up...
...should have known they wouldn't stay too long.
Oh when I look back now...
...those summers seemed to last forever.
And if I had the choice,
Fitzner Stadium would be my home.
Those were the best days of my life.
Over the span of two years, while the family had free evenings to spend in the summer at the... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 07/12/10
11 Comments
Stephen Pryor
Having just acquired two more in the Lee trade (6-7, 250 Beavan and 6-5, 220 Lueke), it is safe to say that the Z regime likes their big, tall pitchers.
In the draft, the first pick was 6-4, 195 streetballer Taijuan Walker (more on him below); then in the 3rd round 6-4 Ryne Stanek (though a skinny 180); then 6-3, 210 James Paxton.
In the fifth round came 6-6, 225 Stephen Pryor, who signed on the dotted line in a hurry and went directly to Everett.
Pryor finished his college career at Tennessee Tech in the Ohio Valley, which is decidedly not the SEC, but despite a couple of... Read More
Posted by anonymous (not verified) on 07/12/10
10 Comments
The braintrust thought they had a team that was a playoff team this year, I'm convinced. Lee and Felix and all that plus their belief in the idea that Bradley had smoke left in his bat and that Kotchman was a breakout waiting to happen. Throw in an All-Star and OBP stud in Figgins and last years record all of a sudden got a bunch better. repeat the Junior/Sweeney lovefest and, voila, 95 wins.
Something happend on the way, not the least of which, I think, was the delusion that last year's team was better than it really was. Pythagorus was the better way of looking at lasst year's team, not... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/10/10
2 Comments
This one definitely needs its own thread, because this would be a tool for the carry toolbelt if true.
Dr. K, Taro, G-Money and umpteen cyber-grandmasters piled on to agree that high K's in the minors are, if not a guarantee of failure, then certainly a giant red flag.
Excellent saber discussion.
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=== Dr K Says ===
Hi Doc,
It's been a few years since I first ran across the idea -- maybe at baseball prospectus -- but contact rate is a huge issue for minor leaguers. The pitch stalker archetype generally has a substantial increase in strikeout rate when going from the minors to... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/10/10
26 Comments
=== Jack Cust ===
For example, w/r/t #6 above, Jack Cust fanned an average of 179 times per 550 AB's in the minors -- and a lot of that was as an old (experience) player in the minors, outmatching young pitchers!
Cust fanned one time every 3.07 AB's career, in MiLB, and for this reason was airily waved off by the same amigos who waved off Ryan Howard.
Dr. K asked if we remembered the scoffing directed at those who were interested in Ryan Howard. Yea verily, and also the scoffing after Cust's first month of bashing in the majors: "They'll start throwing him curve balls and he'll be back... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/09/10
28 Comments
=== E=MC^2 Dept. ===
Wilson's 250/335/485 major league equivalency (MLE) is, as the political pollsters say, a "statistical tie" for Russell Branyan's 250/325/520 line so far this year.
Branyan's line is, of course, a 130 OPS+ oasis in a barren wasteland of 70 OPS+ Mariner desert. Remember, now, Bill James and Gary Huckabay tell us that MLE's are just as predictive as major-league stats are.
Wilson hit 290/400/585 at AA West Tenn, was called up to Tacoma after a month, and proceeded to hit exactly the same thing at cavernous AAA Cheney: 290/400/595. I guess that means he'd hit... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/09/10
9 Comments
=== Dr's R/X ===
1. Wilson is ahead of Greg Halman in line.
He's not as gifted, but he is (much) older and is handling the strike zone better. Kelly's litmus test of hard AB's when behind in the count is telling here. Wilson is solid against tough pitching, in tough counts.
...
2. The M's have seen enough of Milton Bradley to answer The Big Question. ... he's not going to be part of their next pennantwinner.
Make a decision, boys. MB isn't in your lineup when you win in 2011 or 2012, so move on sooner rather than later.
Politically, it can be tough to broach the subject of writing... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/09/10
14 Comments
=== Taro Sez ===
When in doubt, hittracker: http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2010_598&type=hitter
Average Hr so far around 403.9 feet. The power is there.
The upside is Mark Teixiera. Lots of similarities there. Similar body type, similar track record, similar eye, similar height, both sllick defenders, both in MLB at age 23.
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=== Hurt Me, Dept. ===
Thanks for the HR distances champ. Very suggestive. As NYM was quick to point out, you are certainly not talking about a Kotchman, or even a John Olerud, cap to the power here. Smoak gets his pitch and squares it up and... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/09/10
5 Comments
=== Getcher Red Hots ===
Excerpting HQ from time to time, least we can do is link you to their ordering page :- ) so here it is again. We'll give our own two cents later, but on the run tonight, we'll just pass along others' in Exec Summaries.
Taking a few of their assessments, though not their text, they've got:
Grade 9B prospect
Plus PWR
Plus AVG
Minus SPD
Plus DEF
From a detail standpoint, they've got:
"Strong" hitter
Consistently has an idea at the plate, out-thinks pitchers
Excellent discipline and BB's are a given (walked in first 4 ML games - Dr D)
Will "easily"... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/09/10
39 Comments
=== Sense of Proportion ===
There were eleventeen packages reportedly out there, and only two of them were reported to have ML-ready difference-makers of Montero's and Smoak's magnitude.
It's like arguing about the difference between Joey Votto and Mark Teixeira. That's what the 14-year-olds argue about before Draft Day in roto: which first rounder can reallllly carry your ballclub.
The biggest difference in baseball is between safe and out. :- ) The biggest difference in Zdurencik's options was whether he got a player he could count on to make an impact.
The difference between Montero... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/09/10
9 Comments
=== What's In A Brand, Dept. ===
A few months ago, we did a seminar on the concept of "brand" in Corporate America.
How much do you think you know about branding? Test yourself with a question first: what would you estimate that the Coca-Cola "brand" is worth, in cash money?
In other words, supposing Coca-Cola had to change its name to Zesti-Cola, use green instead of red, and change its font and swirl and contour bottle. It did get to keep all of its factories, distribution lines, management, etc etc.
The "brand" is completely intangible. It is a reputation, a set of... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/09/10
1 Comments
=== Hidden Dynamics ===
When the first concrete rumor came up -- Hicks and Ramos -- cyber-Seattle's reaction was that this was (1) misinformation, no way Lee is worth that, or (2) Zduriencik better take that within 24 hours or it proves he's a moron....
SSI's and MC's reaction was that Zduriencik should turn it down. Neither Hicks nor Ramos were likely to be difference-makers.
We're not going to google it but let's not quibble. Those who recommended passing on Hicks-Ramos were rebuked, sharply, for "not understanding" the real trade market. It says here that the chastised rightfully get... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/09/10
4 Comments
Smoak, two pitchers, and a position player?
More fun than Thursday afternoon in the Carribbean. Well, okay, but still.
.............
Despite my throwaway line about 1 Montero over 50 Smoaks, Smoak is 80-90% of Montero and if the secondary players blow away the Yankees', yes you take the Ranger package.
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=== Zach McAllister, 4SP ===
Think Doug Fister. This is jemanji-mobile stuff, so don't hold me to it. But you get the idea. Real good chance to provide a workmanlike #4. Workmanlike #4's don't change your org, but as a backup piece to Jesus Montero, sure.
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=== David Adams, 2B ===
I'm... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/09/10
12 Comments
As of 2:17 pm, the M's turn down Montero, Adams and a 3rd prospect (possibly McAllister), based on questions about an ANKLE on the #2 player?!
Five scenarios:
1. Capt Jack is remorselessly wringing the sponge dry on the Yankees and, shortly, we'll see a reconfig on the package (Sherman said the NYY even talked 4 players with Montero in one structure).
...
2. Sell the sizzle, not the steak, dept: somebody called with an offer that actually does blow away the Yankees' offer (e.g. Smoak and Scheppers).
...
3. Jack, reading the terrain like Bobby Fischer on a monster rampage through the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/09/10
2 Comments
RSS address being http://seattlesportsinsider.com/rss.xml .
Posted by jemanji on 07/08/10
17 Comments
Q. Link me up?
A. Joel Sherman of the New York Post. He represents it as "an exclusive" that late Thursday night, the Yankees were "on the brink," the Post had learned.
The purity and innocence of the M's fan's love for the game could go from zero to hero in 24 hours...
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Q. What's that part about moving quickly?
A. Sherman indicates that Zduriencik suddenly put the pedal to the metal and wanted a deal wrapped up instanter.
SSI assures you that this has zero to do with the fact that their credibility is twisting in the wind ... after Cliff Lee's casual bombshell that the Mariners... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/06/10
14 Comments
Q. Would Alonso be available?
A. It's been Twittered a bunch that he is available, and that would make sense. He's having a slow year in the upper minors, and Joey Votto is slugging .600 at first for the Reds. It's easy to imagine the Reds being thrilled with the idea of featuring Alonso in a Lee package.
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Q. How concerned are you about his (lack of) production?
A. Somewhat, but two things about that: (1) he's been slowed by a broken hamate bone in his hand. That's very important. And (2) like Aaron Hicks, he's a "projectable" guy with visibly special talent.
MLB.com has Hicks as... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/06/10
2 Comments
As Taro emphasized, Ramos is actually verrrrrrrrrry good for his age/arc at the C position (deflect it two years vs 1B/OF).
Here's a question for you, Taro (Cool Papa, G-Money, Matt, guys). I give you 100x 22-year-old C Wilson Ramoses, who have already tasted the major leagues, and 100x 20-year-old CF Aaron Hickses, who have not yet solved class A ball, but who have stunning athleticism.
1. How do the 100 Ramoses not do more in their 100 careers than the Hickses?
2. Or do the 5 HOF'ers (and 20 Franklin Gutierrezes) you get out of the 100 Hickses .... outweigh the 60 quality ML... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/05/10
31 Comments
No sooner does SSI lay down this suppressive fire on Halman, than the dude swats two more the following night -- on TV no less -- and another the next night!
With 18 homers in only 54 games, Halman is on pace for 51.6 PCL homers over the 155-game spread that roto owners use for projections.
Do other PCL'ers hit one homer every 10.7 at-bats? Nay verily. Here are the PCL home run leaders:
22 in 263 AB's - Brad Eldred (age 30)
21 in 281 - J.P Arencibia (Las Vegas)
20 in 309 - Mark Trumbo (Salt Lake)
18 in 193 - Greg Halman
17 in 305 - Chris Carter
16 in 230 - Kila Ka'aihue (Taro's hero)
16 in... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/05/10
1 Comments
Q. You like?
A. No, I'll pass.
It's a reasonable trade, a "pick any two," it sounds like. But as Any Two goes, I can't imagine liking Any Two less than I like this Any Two.
Which is like saying, of legitimate Opening Day starters in the A.L., I kinda like Mark Beuhrle less than most. But he's still Mark Beuhrle. Yeah, granted that Hicks and Ramos would be a Pick Two.
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Q. Some other places think this deal would be a no-brainer, that the M's would be feebleminded not to execute it within 24 hours, etc.
A. One reason for that reaction might be because other places work from the paradigm... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/05/10
3 Comments
Q. Is Ramos good enough to be considered #2 in the Twins org?
A. Yes, probably, considering that they're not stacked with exciting prospects at the moment. A Ramos + Hicks (+?) offer looks like a "pick any two" offer.
As noted below, already you've cashed in nicely, if you bet the over. As you know, we live to serve.
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Q. Does SSI like Ramos more, or less, than other places do?
A. A bit more than other places do, whereas I like Aaron Hicks quite a bit less than other places do. There isn't a lot of separation between the two players, in value, from where I sit. ... where I sit, is a... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/05/10
Q. Is this a quick-scan, a Twitter-type quick reaction ... or does SSI understand Hicks pretty good? What's the coefficient of confidence here, dude.
A. Pretty high, we think. We'd feel confident making a call on this trade.
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Q. Does SSI like him better or less than other places do?
A. Considerably less. That's not to say he isn't a blue-chipper.
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Q. Comps for Aaron Hicks?
A. Think Adam Jones, maybe a little more volatile, a little more upside and (since he's in the low minors) certainly more chance to crash. The Uptons are more physically talented than Jones, and... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/05/10
6 Comments
Q. Have you seen him?
A. Ya. I'll tell you what. One look at this kid swinging a bat just about knocked me off my chair. Here's an example. Wow!
He s a special, special athlete, no doubts there. Supposedly he played golf very well as a teenager, and that is how butter-smooth and torquey and balanced his swing is.
He's as sudden as an eyeblink. He's explosively strong, and he hasn't even filled out yet. He's track-fast. Physically speaking, he hits you like Justin Upton, maybe with even a better (golfer's) swing.
You can definitely, absolutely tell why the scouts swoon away and... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/05/10
Q. Pineda actually seems to be better in the PCL than he was at West Tenn. Is he?
A. Sure. For example, his K's were 8-something in AA. They are well over 12 in the PCL.
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Q. Is that a short-sample fluke?
A. Not at all. Pineda will continue to deep-fry the PCL this way until he's called up. Was Felix going to stop doing what he was doing in AAA?
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Q. How could this happen, that Pineda's strikeouts increased by 30% when he moved up to face tougher hitters?
A. This happens sometimes, with great pitchers.
Back when Tim Lincecum was wiping out the minor leagues, we got into... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/05/10
2 Comments
Q. How does this apply in baseball?
A. Lemme give you one more sports Law of Gravity first.
A lousy soccer team, let's say Team Canada, might very well play the Germans and lose only 2-0. Yet a very powerful team, say Argentina, might lose to the Germans 4-0.
That's because Canada won't get out and play with them. They'll pack their own penalty box, never send five guys forward to try to score. (The equivalent of a AA batter taking a pepper swing and trying to ground one to the right side.)
The Argentinians will challenge them, run up and down the field with them, play soccer with... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/05/10
6 Comments
=== Prospect Status, March 2010 ===
Groupthink: In March 2010? A good solid Grade B or B+ prospect.
The Truth: One of the five or 10 best prospects in all of organized baseball.
The Truth^2: At 92+ mph, he profiled as Don Sutton. At these new reports of 96+, try more like Bob Gibson.
The Reality, July 6 2010: Anybody want to list ten pitchers in the minors with better chances to impact the major leagues?
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=== The Plan at West Tenn ===
Groupthink April 2: Work on the glaring weaknesses in AA, see what happens.
The Truth April 2: The joke at West Tenn will end in June.
The Truth^2... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/03/10
11 Comments
My son John's take on the state of the Mariners, 7/4/10.
Go for more editions of the SSI Kartoon Korner? let John know. :- )
Still noodling as to how to re-size it, though... you can click on the toon for a larger pop-up and there's a larger cartoon at D-O-V.
.....................
MLBTradeRumors.com, after Buster Olney who is a fine grapevine reporter, says that the M's want offense first in a Lee deal.
1. This makes sense on a quick-view of the M's ERA+ vs OPS+.
2. It doesn't make sense if you pause to recognize that BaseballHQ has the M's farm as #1 for position-player bats.
2a... Read More
Posted by anonymous (not verified) on 07/02/10
Jemanji,
Could you give me something on Nick Franklin like you gave me on Dustin Ackley. There is plenty of good video on You Tube to analyze. I would like to hear your thoughts and opinions on his swing.
Thanks
John Saratoga Springs
Posted by jemanji on 07/02/10
5 Comments
=== Pennant Race Dept. ===
Coupla Rainiers games on TV lately. Last night it was the, ahem, 1st-place Rainiers against the 2nd-place Salt Lake Bees.
My daughter wandered in and glanced at the screen. The pitcher was taking the sign. "Bedard? Does Erik Bedard have a brother in the minor leagues?"
Just then, there was a bunt or something and Adam Moore jumped on the ball. "That's ADAM MOORE? What is this game?" The camera panned around to Mike Carp and Matt Tuiasosopo...
Rainiers games consist of lousy major leaguers playing lousy major leaguers, we told her. She got it right away. "... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/02/10
Steen challenges my opinion on Geoff Baker. Kewl. Bypassing more entertaining options this week, we'll respond to fair questions fairly.
Like, three years ago, it used to be the opinion (notably at Fanhome) that Mariners cyberspace was a zero-sum game, that there were only (say) 5,000 clickthroughs available a day and that we should all fight for these clicks by ignoring one another.
This wasn't the assumption at Detect-O-Vision; the assumption there was always that Mariners fans will click to as many M's blogs as hold their interest. If there are two decent M's... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/02/10
3a. Geoff Baker has the respect to engage these fans and to consistently exchange ideas with them -- even when he knows that their ideas are very naive. I've heard, oh, a dozen Baker Live!'s, and 95% of the time he'll respond to "How can you say Ryan Rowland-Smith should be out of the rotation? He just shut down the Yankees!" with polite tolerance.
The fact that Baker gets a bit irritated with the silliness, illustrates that he deals with them, and he deals with them long-term, again and again. Let some other blog -- even SSI :- ) -- semi-politely engage a troll for 100 posts... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/02/10
1 Comments
=== Debate vs Snark ===
"Snark" carries the connotation of "supercilious" ... haughty contempt or disdain.
The idea is that I'm too good to deal with you, but take this insult with you on the way out. :- ) I get to talk; you don't.
"Snark" is not a term I would use in reference to Baker, or Lookout Landing, or most Seattle blogs.
...............
Geoff and Jeff S and G-Money and Cool Papa and Sandy get irritated, but they get irritated in the way that one man gets irritated with another man in the locker room. It's a different shade of red, one that I can live with.
Am not sure how... Read More
Posted by anonymous (not verified) on 07/02/10
8 Comments
No trading Cliff Lee. This isn't over.
In 1951, on August 13, the New York Giants were 12.5 games behind the Brooklyn Dodgers. Now, I have a lot of respect for the Rangers. But the Rangers are NOT the 1951 Brooklyn Dodgers, as fine a team we'll ever see.
On July 24, 1964, the St. Louis Cards were 10 back and had SIX teams ahead of them. A month later, in what must have seemed like a futile chase, they were 11 back with three teams ahead of them. They went on to win the World Series.
On August 13, 1969, the New York Mets were 10 games behind Chicage and in third place. They went on to... Read More