November 2010
Posted by jemanji on 11/30/10
Interesting Mariner Central thread on Crain. - Dr D
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Q. Is Jesse Crain a Dr. D specialty or is this generic family-practice opinion we're getting?
A. Our roto squad, Boyz II BABVA, spends as much time scoping closer-wannabe's --- > as does the next roto squad along, we s'pose.
For those of you who haven't played roto before: after the initial draft, the first yellow sticky on the side of your computer? That's the sticky that contains the names of 8 or 10 or 12 ace relievers who are setting up for shaky closers.
You scrounge these setup men and once the banana on the hot seat... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/30/10
4 Comments
Q. So Crain is a pass, or why are the Mariners after him?
A. Crain might have gotten better in 2010. A lot better.
This is going to send my man CA screaming into the night :- ) but Jesse doubled his slider percentage last year.
65% heaters, 25% sliders - Crain before
45% heaters, 45% sliders - Crain all year long, 2010
Now scan down Fangraphs to his O-swing and Z-swing. Batters in 2010 fished for pitches outside the strike zone -- and froze on pitches in the strike zone.
Crain, in 2010, went to a K-Rod type game, slider first, then throw the ball by them after they're locked up. If the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/30/10
54 Comments
A spirited resistance from Grizz and Matt, to Dr. D's assessment of the 2009-10 train wreck... we looooov eeeeet...
You are looking at two years worth of data on "Jack's spots" and are losing all perspective. He's had a seriously declining payroll and many holes to fill.
All that said, separate the M's experience from his resume and look at how he built the Brewers. It's not like the Brewers had this "defense first" philosophy. They had lumber throughout the lineup and certainly didn't try to win 92 3-2 games.
Or, what has happened is that youse gumbys and pokeys have assumed that... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 11/29/10
I'm going to tie all this together, so bear with me. DaddyO posts the sobering fact that the Ms have been outscored for six seven consecutive seasons. In other words, ever since the 01 bunch collectively fell to Earth. In fact, baseball-reference.com has all the dirt right here: http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SEA/
This brings to my mind: Derek Jeter and Aaron Rodgers.
The timing is surely coincidental, but the Yanks are in the midst of their war of nerves with Jeter at the exact moment that the Vikings are crumbling to dust and Aaron Rodgers is knocking on the door of Manning-... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/29/10
Matty sez:
Stub thread begging for further commentary from Doc or others...
"Others" have tossed their coppers into the tin cup, to the tune of 50+ comments. Substantive comments, as in. Not 50+ the pseudo-witty driveby 4-word "comments," but witty-n-wisdomy comments from bottom of cup to top. Since you rung the till....
"Doc" will now thumb Confederate currency off the top of his bankroll and match each and every copper with his own 1800's-era sawbuck.
That, or will noodle around until even he has hit his keystroke payroll cap, one or the other.
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To my admittedly primitive eye, it... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/29/10
Matty
How often can you get a 3 WAR shortstop under contract for 8-9 million dollars? How many 3 WAR SSs are there right now in all of baseball...and how many of those are cheap? This is just plain stupid...you do not commit minor league assets to acquire a shortstop at enormous cost when you can sign one relatively cheaply by market standards and trade for pieces to fix OTHER problems.
I am rapidly losing faith in Zduriencik.
3 WAR woulda made Nishioka the #8 shortstop in both leagues last year.
There's Tulowitzki, there's Drew, there's Hanley Ramirez ... and then Nishioka projects [about... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/29/10
Taro
We're still looking for a SS... I guess we hope Luis Rodriguez breaks out (which is possible).
Rodriguez is Dr. D's starting SS going into March. But I'm afraid that the Mariners would prefer a -10 bat, =0 shortstop to a +15 bat, -8 glove shortstop.
Let's hope that the Mariners got Schick-Shadel'ed* out of pretty defense and 500 runs. But I'll believe it when I see it.
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CS
Everything I've read sees him as a needing to move to second-base. Which is incidentally where the Twins see him, too.
Huge bias in America towards power and away from precision.
Back in my day, they used to be... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/29/10
DaddyO
Jack has what he thinks is an even better option.
I usually don't skip any opportunity to flay Howard and Chuck, but in this case I find it hard to believe the cost was the issue. I think it must have had to do with Jack's plan and his talent evaluation.
Agree. Drives me batty that the M's lost out on the NPB batting champ, considering that their own SS's were like -30 runs to league average.
But I don't believe for a second that this was an Armstrong call OR a Zduriencik call. And it has frequently been the case that Z got sighted going after big game .... AGone, Chone Figgins,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/29/10
Moe
What I was most impressed with, however, is how well he covers the entire plate RH'ed and LH'ed. He can drill the down and in pitch into the corner or into the stands and he drives the outside black pitch into the gap.
He can play.
Minus signing a few MILB FA's, this has been a quiet period for the M's. I think something is going to happen via a trade. Jack may be sitting on that.
NPB players are throwbacks that way. In the 1960's, America didn't have ESPN.
Very true that we don't have enough information to guess with Jack on a day-to-day basis. Who knows whether he's got plans at... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/29/10
G-Money
If Jack intends to hold on to Franklin and believes in him, then no, you don't block him off with an immovable Nishioka. I still have my doubts that we can EVER trade a Japanese player.
Hasegawa, Johjima, Sasaki, Ichiro...no trade rumors on any of em. Extended and inflated contracts on a couple, and a couple of save-face retirements back to Japan when it was turning into a disaster over here.
I would be wary of Japanese imports as a Mariners GM. I just would. Once they get there the negotiations and outcomes are out of your hands.
Yeah, if you're Jack Zduriencik and you're... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/29/10
Here's another great photo by Marc W, with Swamp-Thing comin' right atcha:
Coug
6 spots in the lineup to fill is quite a bit and this team still needs a starter or two. They also need several relievers. All of this with very limited payroll space. Right now the Mariners need to get MUCH better and they will probably need to do that via trade.
No doubt they could use a starter, and would love to see one. But if it's Felix-Pineda-Vargas then SSI is willing to endorse Scrubs at the 4-5 ... If Mauricio Robles, for example, is looking hot in ST then that's okay by me...
Here is the Can... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/29/10
17 Comments
Grumpy
Maybe Jack promised him a shot at being a full time starting SS in order to get him. If L-Rod had indeed jumped a plateau then that will end up looking like a good move.
This was our feeling as well.
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L-Rod MUST have had his pick of orgs, and why would he pick us? Jack had to have convinced him that this was his best shot at playing time.
Sometimes we speculate. But this one is getting pretty close to necessary inference territory. L-Rod has got to be big in the 2011 plans, at least tentatively.
And, if so, he could provide a 2.0 WAR shortstop for free. IF the M's will hold... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/29/10
CA:
Wilson .... Jack, that is, most likely kills this or any other move for SS. Too bad, terrible move in hindsight and the 2 year deal to erase last years' hit stings now more than ever. I'm afraid of this off season.The team needs some PR moves, a big splash, and to be more competitive next season. All of that adds up to money, and the M's have a clear history in rebuild situations... the money goes down, not up.
:- /
Perhaps that is the reality. Sigh.
Let's not forget that right before last season, Zduriencik rewrote Wilson's option year -- 2011 -- with a guaranteed $5M for this year... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/29/10
OK, one mo'...
Coug sez
I think this community has consistantly over stated the impact of Japanese baseball players. Dice-K's, Kiroda's, Igawa's, Johjima's and Iwanura's reputations far outweighed what they were able to deliever on the field. This doesn't make them lousy ball players but they haven't been the bargains many have thought them to be.
And Taro counters
Joh and Kuroda delivered just around as expected. Igawa was a bust, and changed my view on poor command types transfering over (you can also add K.Matsui to that group_. Matsuzaka has just declined. I think its a physical issue... Read More
Posted by anonymous (not verified) on 11/28/10
Jon Shields on proballnw has a thread going about possible Rule 5 players to watch.
One of the player mentioned is a Yankee farmhand named Craig Heyer. 24 years old, never above A+ ball but he certainly brings something interesting. He throws tons of ground balls and he throws tons of strikes.
Shields says he's walked 14 batters over 171.1 innings during the last two seasons. Baseball-reference says its 15 walks over 162.1 innings but, either way, you get the idea.
95 strikesouts over the same period of time.
Only 2 HR's! Sheeeesh.
Sounds like the guy is a "strike at the knees" machine!... Read More
Posted by SABR Matt on 11/26/10
56 Comments
Stub thread begging for further commentary from Doc or others...
To my admittedly primitive eye, it sure looks like the Mariners need a shortstop, considering they have no SS prospect anywhere close to ready (Franklin is at least 2 years away...minimum) and no legitimate major league options that can hit better than .650 (OPS).
And it sure SEEMS like the guy who just hit .340 with a near-one EYE ratio and played well-above-average defense at both short and second in the NPB...might just hit better .650 for the Mariners. Especially since he's a switch-hitting contact/line drive type who uses... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/24/10
1 Comments
=== Mechanics and Health ===
One of the prettiest motions you'll ever see.
Textbook lanky-pitcher's body. Light on his feet. Extends all his limbs and yet stays balanced. Glassy-smooth decel and the arm doesn't even touch his chest. Leverage perfect, everything perfect.
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As a result of this zero-stress motion :- ) he has not one, not two, but three stress fractures in his right shoulder .... and 9,000 other injuries. Even if he were great, he'd be too fragile to worry about.
As a major league pitcher, he makes a great video.
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=== Template ===
Power flyball pitcher with an... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/24/10
Q. And what would be Level 102?
A. Bringing such a player to Arizona for 30 days, and observing as he swings at baseballs.
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Q. You're scanning for what?
A. Something very simple.
Probability Match 98% occurs after you determine that --- > this guy can (1) apply the exact same bat control he always has, while (2) hitting the ball a lot harder.
Maybe he can. Check it out. We'll let you know at final cutdown.
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Q. Is there such a thing as a late bloomer in baseball?
A. Funny how a certain phrasing of a question can make the truth obvious, isn't it?
Late bloomers are much more... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/24/10
Q. Is Rodriguez maybe going to become an All-Star now?
A. His AAA stats, following his "bustout," translated to something around .280/.335/.440 in the majors, just guessing at the MLE here. About ML average.
You're talking about whether Luis Rodriguez has become Mike Aviles or Marco Scutaro, not talking about whether he's become Jason Bartlett or Andres Torres.
In the perfect world, Rodriguez does not become an All-Star; in the perfect world, he becomes an AL-average (solid!) hitter who plays a passable SS and a good 2B/3B.
Which is Scutaro, of course. Obviously a $425,000 Marco... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/24/10
2 Comments
Q. How do you know whether to roll the dice on him?
A. That's just the thing. Ideally, you would bring him to camp, and audition him for 30 days.
In those 30 days you will see whether he's now (1) the old bat-control guy with (2) some pop in his swing now.
It's not rocket science. The guy's always had a 1:1 EYE, and still does ... somehow, in 2010, he kept that, while putting his butt into the swing.
Either he can make that work, in March, or he can't. Bring him in and see if he can. That's the org's ideal situation (and the player's undesirable situation).
The problem is why... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 11/23/10
2 Comments
And Bryce Harper, too, if you are interested.
Not much, but take what we can get.
http://seattle.mariners.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=13027543
At 1:10 Ack is called out on strikes, though he obviously thought he had walked.
At 1:29 a single to left.
At 1:36 glovework!
And more defense here:
http://seattle.mariners.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=13026699
=====
While I'm here: reportedly the Ms have signed Luis Rodriguez, a mildly interesting utility guy who Does. Not. Strike. Out. (check out his eye ratios -- majors and minors) and then suddenly at 30 became an offensive presence... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/19/10
4 Comments
Hope you don' mind if we split out a few of these interesting sub-arguments that are baseballs lost in the tall grass out there.
From a chess (game theory!) standpoint, Dr. D is very sensitive to the idea of NOT OVERLAPPING applied power on the field of play.
For example, Bishops are worth 3 points (pawns) and so are Knights, but guess what -- Two Bishops (one on dark squares, one on light) are worth 7 points as compared to any other minor-piece pair. The Bishops are always, in all variations, covering lots of squares together.
This non-redundancy effect is worth a whole Pawn. Non-... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/19/10
48 Comments
In about one year, will look like two Tim Lincecums for Jay Buhner.
Warning: Dr. D is starting to get wound up about this one... general rules of decorum are about to go out the window, kiddies, as it did with the Morrow-over-Shorty-Lincecum rubbish ...
Sez our ace reporter Spec:
Here: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/marinersblog/2013474766_justin_upt...
[Baker's article says, as summarized by Spec]
1. Upton will require two of Ack-Smoak-Pineda (plus Saunders, apparently).
2. Baker thinks it's worth it anyway.
3. Z will value a proven commodity over prospects.
4. Ackley is unproven... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 11/19/10
18 Comments
Here: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/marinersblog/2013474766_justin_upt...
Upshot:
1. Upton will require two of Ack-Smoak-Pineda (plus Saunders, apparently).
2. Baker thinks it's worth it anyway.
3. Z will value a proven commodity over prospects.
4. Ackley is unproven at 2b and of questionable value if not at 2b.
5. Smoak is pretty easy to replace.
6. Towers and Z know how to do a deal.
He's almost got me convinced (not as to Ackley, though). Two of them for a budding young star, OK. Two of them for this particular one (Upton), I'm not sold.
Posted by jemanji on 11/18/10
52 Comments
Rumor sez:
The D-Backs want Bard + Ellsbury + whatever from Boston. Bard is a great closer-in-waiting, but
Did they forget a Jon Lester in there somewhere or ? ;- ) That would be kind of like Lueke/Cortes + Guti WITHOUT Pineda.
Anybody here going to consider giving up Michael Pineda for a real good short reliever?!
.................
ML-ready Opening Day starters are gold, baby.
You ever try to trade for a 97-mph pheenom who has aced AAA and is ready next March? I'd rather try to buy a 2011 Camaro... You think that Toronto would trade you Kyle Drabek for, say, Franklin Gutierrez?... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 11/18/10
7 Comments
And just to provoke a little reaction, from Tom Weir of USA Today (not quite sure how tongue-in-cheek he's trying to be):
Felix Hernandez's 13 wins shouldn't equal a Cy Young
The AL's Cy Young winner will be announced tomorrow and it probably is going to land in the hands of Felix Hernandez, the proud possessor of a 13-12 record.
And that will drive me a little nuts.
Make no mistake, Hernandez had a heckuva season for a Mariners team that often looked like it was recruited from a Seattle animal shelter. He ranked first in most of the key statistical categories: ERA (2.27), innings... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/17/10
SSI readers more interested in Justin Upton than is Dr. D. But, as you know, we live to serve ... :- )
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Q. What's the bottom line?
A. One-third chance of each of the following things:
Juan Gonzalez (HI)
Andruw Jones (MID)
B.J. Upton (LO)
Justin Upton's overrated by a pretty good portion of the track, and I ain't giving you Ackley and Smoak for him, but Upton's going to bat cleanup.
He's on the brink of becoming a marquee player.
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=== You Had Me At Four Questions, Dept. ===
SABRMatt sez:
I like Upton...but I don't like him enough to trade Pineda and other big time... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/17/10
Part 1
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Q. Is Justin Upton a commodity that could easily become worth $100,000,000 to a major league franchise?
A. This might be true if you had a major league ballclub, but you had been required to play with no minor league affiliates and with no minor leaguers.
If there were such a thing as a Bud Selig-owned team that had nothing but a 25-man roster, and acquired every player off the FA market and waiver wire, then Upton might become worth $100M over the years ($20M per season times x 5 seasons).
We don't mean that in a snide way. We mean it literally.
.............
If you take a... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/17/10
Part 2
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Q. Can you give a real-life example of how this works?
A. Sure. When the Mariners traded for Erik Bedard, pundits calculated that Adam Jones -- by himself -- was worth far, far more than Bedard even if Bedard were completely healthy.
This calculation -- and the theoretical math is fairly sound, give or take a UZR argument or two -- stated that the first two years of Adam Jones was worth more than a healthy Bedard, and so of course six years' worth of Adam Jones dwarfed a healthy Bedard's value.
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Q. That seems crazy. Is it? Why?
A. As SSI protested at the time... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/17/10
Part 3
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Q. What are you saying, in one sentence?
A. Upton's cool -- but ain't worth $100M, and he ain't worth Felix.
Those paradigms are based on WAR-VALUE calculations that assume an ML ballclub has no minor league system.
It's a free country ... at least on the internet ... :- ) and that's my $0.02.
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Q. But you have to delta Felix, Bedard, and Lee against your minors pitchers too, right?
A. Much less so. The performances of #5 starters are historically feeble. The performances of LF's, not so much.
Still, if your particular MLB org projects your #5 starter to defy gravity and... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/17/10
Part 4
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Q. What is Upton's upside scenario?
A. This kid is showing 155 PX's already -- 170 in spots -- and he's got every chance to hit 40, even 50 homers. Maybe in several different seasons.
Other players with 150 PX's: ARod, Jay Bruce, Adrian Gonzalez, Ryan Zimmerman, Mark Teixeira.
............
And Justin is already creating 6-7 runs a game, even 8 for stretches. Upton could become the Juan Gone or Jose Canseco of the next decade. I'd like to have him - don't get me wrong.
Like Taro says, you could be talking about a nearly Hamilton-level talent. The upside is very... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/17/10
27 Comments
Part 5
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Q. So .... Ackley, Smoak, and Pineda for Upton?
A. Dustin Ackley hits .300 in his rookie year and everybody agrees that he is then worth more than Upton, correct?
Six, six-and-a-half years of club controls?
I'm not giving you Dustin Ackley for Justin Upton's 5/$50M contract. No sale.
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Q. Michael Pineda for Upton?
A. Definitely, since Pineda comes with health questions.
Upton, and his 5/$50 contract, are worth ten million a year net to me ...and Pineda's chance of doing that, five years in a row, are
Pineda and any handful of surplus prospects -- that includes valuable guys... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/16/10
9 Comments
Spec found a recent player he comps to Dustin Ackley...
... In terms of tons of hits and walks with hardly any strikeouts. It was in 2005:
23 G, 82 AB, 30 H, 7 dbl, 3 tpl, 2 HR, 21 BB, 10 K
.366/.495/.598/1.093
The very next year in the bigs:
396 AB, 122 H, 20 dbl, 7 tpl, 11 HR, 34 BB, 77 K -- .308/.365/.477
Career MLB: 124 OPS+, .291/.363/.491
It's Andre Ethier of the Dodgers.
Of course, Ack's AFL season is better, with 8 dbls, 4 HR and 23 walks in only 18 games, and he's 4-for-4 on stolen bases. And playing a tougher defensive position. And it goes on.
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=== Joe D, Dept. ===
I have... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/16/10
I ....... need an easy run
I do ... with a bat ta lend
I do ... think you fit this crew
I do ... and your outcome's true
...........
They'll take advantage and
They'll hang you out to dry
But they won't get you every night
No they won't get you every night
Threeeeeeeeeeeeeeee. Runs.
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Q. Could Mark Reynolds help the Seattle Mariners?
A. Hm. Lemme bust out the 64-processor motherbo'd for this one.
Runs created per 27 outs, 2010 Mariners
5.7 - Ichiro
5.3 - Branyan
4.6 - League Average
3.9 - Franklin Gutierrez (3rd-best on the traveling squad)
3.6 - Bradley
3.6 - Figgins
3.1 -... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/16/10
Q. How does Reynolds compare to other TTO hitters like Dunn, Thome, Cust, and Branyan?
A. I don't like that he's righty. I'm not enthused about TTO guys who bat right.
It helps the TTO hitters' white-knuckle games to ----> have the platoon advantage 80% of the time. They're skating on thin-enough ice without battling the platoon.
.................
Reynolds has somewhat worse of a BB rate, and EYE, than the other TTO guys (not than the other ML guys). But then, he's younger, too.
He walked 83 times and fanned 211 times last year. :shrug: That's fine. He's turning... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/16/10
Q. What do you do with him?
A. I Mark McLemore him, personally. He get a majority of the DH at-bats, and is my primary backup at 1B, 3B and maybe LF.
Spotted against the right pitchers, Earl Weaver style, he could have a career year.
...........
Hey, for years people thought you had to be under 5'10" to hit #2 in a lineup. Why couldn't a TTO guy be a Mark McLemore?
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Q. Is Reynolds a fit for Safeco?
A. ...
1. No righty is.
2. You have to have some righties.
Anybody who gets his bases via BB and K is a theoretical fit for the park. I wish that the Mariners had literally... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/16/10
What's the #1 punch card into the mainframe, when projecting UP/DOWN? Age. Reynolds is 27 with experience.
I mean, there are 10 or 20 different things you feed in, when projecting arc. But what's first? The birthday.
Objectively speaking, you gamble Reynolds UP looonnnnnng before you gamble up on a 30-something like Milton Bradley.
Reynolds' most-similar players per baseball-reference.com:
Age 23 - Mike Schmidt
Age 24 - Mike Schmidt
Age 25 - Mike Schmidt
I don't say that Reynolds is going to be a star, but it ain't like he's done. 'member: at age 27, Cust was still working out the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/16/10
24 Comments
As much as Adam Dunn has been talked about here, Mark Reynolds is about as similar a player as can be found; impressive home run power, great patience, and lots of strikeouts, except unlike Dunn, Reynolds actually has some defensive value.
Well ... :- ) Hey. All-round great read amigo.
It's a matter of taste - I don't personally think of TTO players as variations on Adam Dunn; I kind of don't even think of right hand hitters as TTO guys. :- )
Adam Dunn is about as hard a 7.0, 7.5 runs as you're going to get. Dunn is 40 homers and 100 walks in the bank before the first pitch, bab-eh,... Read More
Posted by malcontent on 11/16/10
5 Comments
There's been a lot of rumors circulating that one of the first things Kevin Towers wants to do as the new GM of the Diamondbacks is to reduce team strikeouts. It's a solid idea, as the Diamondbacks led the Majors in strikeouts by a large margin. The first thing he's expected to do, is to unload the 3 time Strikeout leader Mark Reynolds. I think the Mariners could easily be in the discussion.
The Diamondbacks are said to be looking for relief help and contact hitters, and if there's one thing the Mariners have, it's relief help and contact hitters. A trio that immediately jumps to mind... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 11/16/10
5 Comments
==Dan Cortes==
Good: Cortes has been pitching pretty much only in save situations. Either grooming or showcasing. And he is 7-for-7.
Good: Only 6 hits in 10.1 IP for .176 avg. against, and 3 ER for a 2.61 ERA.
Bad: 8 walks in those 10.1 IP vs. 7 K.
It hasn't been killing him, and Venezuelan umps are notoriously, well, not the pinnacle of the profession. So maybe he's just "effectively wild."
==Josh Lueke==
Good: Pretty much everything. Gameday sez: consistently 94-96 with the fastball, 83 change, 80 curve. The line:
10 G, 11.1 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 0 HR, 3 BB, 12 K for an ERA of 0.79... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/12/10
23 Comments
November 12th: Five plate appearances, four more times on base.
In the first inning, Ack! came up with 1 on, 1 out, and kicked off a bat-around inning...
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=== Double Off-Field ===
Thusly:
Took a fastball away for 1-0
Took a low fastball for 2-0
Took a FB out-and-over for 2-1 ...
On 2-1, Brooks Brown hit the outside third with a 91 fastball and -- Ackley doubled the other way.
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=== 4-Pitch Walk ===
Same inning, different pitcher. Ackley's second AB, against Brendan Wise:
ize: small;">.
=== Stop Da Fight ===
The happy totals:
.456 AVG on 26-for-57, half of the hits for extra bases
.... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/12/10
Have spent 30 or so years studying the method of public speaking.
Lot of things that SSI gets wrong, no doubts there. But we do believe that on this one, we will be able to predict the success-or-failure of the man who succeeds Dapper Dave...
..............
Presidents make speeches primarily to avoid mistakes; their thing is precision. If you speak publicly, you can learn that from them. They project authority, and there's a method they use for that. And so on.
Public speakers who want to retain authority need to be large-minded; they're not bogged down in debate, and... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/11/10
=== Baseball Public Speakers ===
Sports announcers, great ones, apply a lot of method. Vin Scully has a certain method that has made his act "happen." From him, you could learn how to speak easily, if you cared to. You speak like an older man, unrushed, with a telemarketer's smile as you speak, letting the ideas glide along rather than shoving them.
Kevin Calabro has another method; he makes "hip" happen in a very unorthodox way. Not an athlete himself, he pulls off the impossible and is accepted as "in" by the athletes. The way he does this may almost be unique to him.
Dave Niehaus... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/11/10
9 Comments
Bill James was once asked, do you ever not think about baseball? Bill's reply, hmmmmm... once in a while in a movie I forget about baseball for a few minutes, but it has to be a good movie.
Think about where James, and saber, was in 1975, and think about where his passion has taken him...
Bill's passion was never for being published. It wasn't for his own reputation. He didn't burn with longing to be highly esteemed by his peers; hey, from 1975-1988, he literally didn't have any peers.
Baseball people would sneer at James, and we mean huge baseball celebrities. Sparky Anderson, early... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/11/10
RockiesJeff sez,
Jeff or anyone, here are a few pitches from Cleto earlier in the year. He is reported to have a good arm but I can't say the same for his form. At least to me, very lazy and inconsistent in the few pitches shown. I hope that a whole year at a higher level will see some maturity and tweaking.
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Don't know if RockiesJeff gives the gold star or the website does. If today ends in a "Y" and it's the website dispensing, somebody give a dozen or two to RockiesJeff.
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=== Take Out a #2 Pencil Dept. ===
Yo momma is so fat ...
last time she saw 90210 was on the bathroom... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/11/10
... which (very) little joke will only be deciphered with a quick 'net lookup of the concept of hara, we suppose.
Like Gary Larson once said about one of his failed cartoons: It's obscure, confusing, inaccessible and not very funny. In other words, a quintessential D-O-V reference...
.............
Good, Bad and Ugly is a D-O-V convention from many years ago, of course ;- ) ... we mighta seen Rowdy Yates or somebody use it before we did. But not by much.
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=== UGLY Dept. ===
THE UGLY being Cleto's consistent rep for being an "athletic" pitcher. So was I athletic when 30 years... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/11/10
7 Comments
=== BAD Dept. ===
THE BAD being that .... well, not to be too harsh here, how should we put it ... hm.
I'm a body language guy. I believe that the body conveys attitude. When you see a guy covering his mouth during conversation, he's not happy about what you or he are saying...
I hate what Cleto's body language on the mound is saying. It's a Yuniesky Betancourt message.
It can be corrected, of course. Dr. D managed, eventually, to correct his desire for most-reward-for-least-possible-effort attitude, from the outside in, but it wasn't easy...
RockiesJeff mentions a big part of the cure... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/11/10
Q. Never followed the AFL. I just know what I've read on the 'net, that it's inconsistent competition and that you can't tell anything from it. Are these 19-year-olds playing in the AFL or what?
A. The vast majority of the players in the AFL are AA and AAA prospects.
Prospects, in contradistinction to players whose value is only at org level. AFL players are high-minors players, who are considered to have a future in MLB by their organizations.
Teams can also send a couple of players (per org) from below AA. Obviously, these will also tend to be players that the clubs are very... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/11/10
15 Comments
Q. Can you "translate" AFL stats?
A. No.
You can't grab a Major League Equivalency (MLE) out of the AFL.
You can't take a particular AFL season and say, hey, the batters were facing pitching that was 87.3% as good as major league pitching, and so you can't say "a guy hit .300 in the AFL and so could hit .264 in the majors."
You can, essentially, do that with AAA and AA baseball. You can't with the AFL.
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Q. Can you make any sense of the stats?
A. Yes! Sometimes.
Oftentimes, 'net-only sabertistas figure that these two things are exactly the same:
Converting a league's stats... Read More
Posted by anonymous (not verified) on 11/10/10
5 Comments
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12419
System in 20 Words or Less: A couple potential impact players at the top but an overall shallow system where the talent level drops off quickly.
Five-Star Prospects
1. Michael Pineda, RHP
2. Dustin Ackley, 2B
Four-Star Prospects
3. Nick Franklin, SS
4. Guillermo Pimentel, OF
Three-Star Prospects
5. Taijuan Walker, RHP
6. Mauricio Robles, LHP
7. Dan Cortes, RHP
8. Kyle Seager, 2B
9. Blake Beavan, RHP
Two-Star Prospects
10. Johermyn Chavez, OF
11. Alex Liddi, 3B
Nine More:
12. Ramon Morla, 3B, 13. Maikel Cleto, RHP, 14. Marcus... Read More
Posted by anonymous (not verified) on 11/10/10
8 Comments
Just heard the news: the Mariners say he had a fatal heart attack at home in Bellevue today. I thought I'd post a simple item here so people can start talking about him and his impact. Dave was 75, and I believe he had four full decades, between the Angels and Mariners, of announcing big league games.
Posted by anonymous (not verified) on 11/09/10
19 Comments
How about the stats
Season 442 avg
18 base on balls
1385 OPS
Last 10 games 500 avg
627 OBP
1516 OPS
This kid is on a complete tear with a possible batting title in the works. Maybe the pundits will stop talking about his slow start. This is his second year in Arizona. You can see that the Kid is getting adapting to being a professional.
John
Posted by jemanji on 11/05/10
13 Comments
Muds updates us,
Ackley still on a tear. He goes 3 for 5 tonight with 2 doubles. He leads the league in OBP at .557 & leads the league in slugging as well with a gaudy .756 giving him a monster OPS of 1.313. His OBP isn't just a product of base on balls either as his batting average is third in the league at .422. Yea I know it's fall ball where the hitting numbers are usually better. But still, it makes your heart thump a little bit. I'm guessing they see a greater proportion of fast balls with all of the relief type pitchers down there.
And wildness, which can be... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/05/10
15 Comments
Some might not realize that before Joe Morgan was the #3 hitter for the Big Red Machine of the 1970's, he was a terrific young second baseman for the 1960's Astros. Jim Bouton played with him in 1969 and Joe is in his Ball Four.
Moe, audaciously, compared Joe to Ackley's targets:
Joe Morgan, Rookie year, 1965: .271-.373-.418 14 HR's
Joe Morgan, Third year, 1967: .275-.378-.411 6 HR's
Joe Morgan, Sixth Year, 1970: .268-.383-.396 8 HR's
Composite (if PA's were equal during each season..they weren't..but it is close)
.270-.378-.410 9 HR's
What do you think? Does Ackley better that... Read More
Posted by SABR Matt on 11/05/10
6 Comments
We need to do five things to fix this game. Five things. That's it. Cool, no? :) Here I will lay out my plan for fixing what ails baseball, in order from the smallest proposals to the biggest ones.
1) Institute full instant replay and computerize the strikezone, but give the umpire the call (put a beeper in his ear that tells him ball from strike and let him make the call on the field in case the system fails). I've heard just about enough crotchety geezers telling me that the game is better with unfair umpiring. That's bubkus and we ALL know it. Making the game fair does not remove... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/04/10
4 Comments
Geoff Baker with a reasoned article on Selig's proposal to go to 5, or 6, playoff teams per league.
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Q. Why does the media always gag when the playoffs are expanded? Baker excepted.
A. There was a time, of course, when the media gagged at the idea of the AL playing the NL in this cheesy World Series concept.
And, of course, for many years, "winning the pennant" was the only playoff there was. You won the most games in your league, you went to the "playoffs."
Second-place finishers? Why should they compete to see who's champion? They've already proved they're not the best team,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/04/10
Q. Is cash the only motivation that Bud Selig has for changing MLB's playoff structure?
A. Selig talks a lot about hope for the have-nots. He's sincere about that part, I think.
Selig would like for fans in Milwaukee and Oakland to experience the things that fans in Boston do. I don't think that's contemptible, do you?
..........
Marilyn Vos Savant, smartest person in the world,* was asked, at what point should I buy a Prius -- hey, I do have to put the old car in the junkyard, after all.* And the factory had to produce the waste to manufacture the Prius.
She advised, whatever costs... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/04/10
14 Comments
Q. How would the balance be, as far as the regular season vs. the playoffs, if there were 10-12 teams going in? Would the game then be "tuned" optimally?
A. I think the tuning would be better - not necessarily perfect. You might need more than 12 playoff teams to tune it just right.
The perfect "tuning" of 162-games-vs-playoffs when this happened: In March, you weren't sure whether to go for playoff ballplayers or regular season ballplayers.
Right now, all 30 teams seem to emphasize 162-game ballplayers, and playoff construction is almost an afterthought (except maybe in NYY and BOS... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/04/10
San-Man with one of his best, which for him, is sayin' somethin'...
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Ackley is a STUDENT of the game. This cannot be overly stressed. Guys like Soriano, (Lopez, Yuni), or on a different plane - Vlad -- are physical freaks.
Ten-for-ten on your paragraphs there ace, as scored by the home scorekeeper :- ) what a great post.
................
This "student" factor is way de-emphasized these days. It's emphasized much less than it should be. One thing that a mainstream writer would never do, is list a white guy as a student of the game and four other guys as physical talents... and... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/04/10
8 Comments
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But, Ackley's trip doesn't end there. AFTER maximizing his walks - and maximizing his BA - THEN, he'll look into increasing his power. This is precisely what he did at Carolina. It is predictable, because (like all humans), he is going to continue utilizing previous approaches that have worked until they stop working.
Couldn't agree more with the plateau-consolidation cycle you mention. For those who are doing it right, that is!
You can compare a weekend golfer who takes out a 3-iron, first tee, and a short backswing -- as he starts making consistent contact, he starts to pull... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/03/10
Q. Could Erikkkk come back and make 25-30 starts a year for several years?
A. As George "Iceman" Gervin used to say, whereas SSI ain't that fast, here to there ... their gig is ziggin' and zaggin'.
Through the pattern recognition.
For me, this question is about the same one as the question, "Of the ten pitchers most like Erik Bedard right now, how many came back strong?" Answer this question, and you answer the other one.
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Q. Who are the comparables?
A. You're not going to get agreement on it. :- )
You mention Max Scherzer, or Brandon Morrow, with their shoulder problems, or Roger... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/03/10
2 Comments
Q. Maybe he'll come back -- but be less effective?
A. That's the one thing that will never occur.
He ran a 2.82 ERA in 2009, pitching with a ripped shoulder. How the deuce do you strike out 90 men in 83 innings? 10 strikeouts a game with a major shoulder injury?
'Cause Erikkkk's tight-spin hook is in the fingers. And 'cause the fastball is hidden, thrown with great deception. Those have zero, nothing, to do with shoulder strength. And he proved it by flinging 10 whiffs a game, with no shoulder.
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Q. Bringing us back to: who's the comp?
A. If you're axing SSI, I want guys who... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/03/10
Q. What's the best case for Bedard, innings-wise?
A. I dunno. Do you see any reason he couldn't do a Chris Carpenter-type thing?
Here's where some wiseacre ignores Carpenter's long string of 175-inning (and 50-inning) seasons and points to 2005 as the big difference-maker.
Nah. [Before his third incarnation] Carpenter was used as a workhorse one year and it wiped him out.
................
Still, I would treat Bedard as a Ferrari, even if he were feeling great. Skip a turn once in a while. Strict 100 pitches, no matter how much the beat writers weep and wail. Give him a phantom DL... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/03/10
Q. Is SSI too biased in Bedard's favor?
A. I'm biased by (1) my love for pitchers who are better than Jarrod Washburn, by (2) my love for players you can win because of rather than with, and (3) by my severe, irrational love for Bedard's personality.
"Gamers" with silent assassin stares have always been pyschedelic for me. Michael Samuelle, Batman, Steve Carlton and Erik Bedard will always have my vote.
Speaking of which, here is a rockin' Lookout Landing post from July 2010, "An Argument for a Perpetually Progressing Erik Bedard Being More of a Blessing than a Burden." I don't know... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/03/10
7 Comments
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Bedard had me from "four questions".
For those who just joined us, the press conference of course, in which Erikkk opened with "Okay, four questions today." "Why only four?" "You're down to three."
Don't know if LL is kidding here, but I'm not. My son and I have a joke that never gets old. He's a 6'2", 250-lb. defensive lineman who never, not once in his life, has ever shouted at anybody. Not once! Has he ever snapped. And he is a scary guy.
He gets treated unfairly enough, he'll look up to the right, he'll stare blankly, and the muscles in his jaw will striate furiously.
We... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/03/10
10 Comments
We axed, how many middle infielders have .400-ish OBP's --- > and aren't considered stars? Forget about HR's or SB's. How many do .380-.400 OBP, play 2B-SS, and aren't stars?
G sez,
That number is zero. The reason I didn't use .400 as a defining characteristic is that it's practically impossible in the modern era. Chase Utley has done it once.
... .400 OBP as a 2B in 500+ plate appearances has been done 47 times in the last 40 years. Not by 47 people, 47 times.
So about once a year it happens.
Places ten to twenty on the list go from .424 to .411: Knoblauch, Randolph, Alomar 3... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/03/10
10 Comments
We axed RockiesJeff whether he'd take Felix or Tim Lincecum...
Cy Youngs aside, I have to go with King Felix. He is a rare one. Enjoy!!!
You all?
Okay, last year after Lincecum's 2nd CY, I told my boys that if I were a GM, in 5 years I think I would rather have Cain than Lincecum. High altitude taking a toll on the brain aside, this season in a couple of games against the Rockies Lincecum was very human. I know he is a pitcher now more than a thrower and his curve/split is lethal. But early this season against the Rockies his velocity was much more inconsistent than prior years. ... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/02/10
Q. Cool article by Spectator, positing that six big draft picks won the Giants a World Series. Does the mainframe agree with this?
A. Agree 100% that these Giants are a super useful template for Jack Zduriencik's own roster.
A. Agree 95% with the observation that 5-6 golden boys, and a pedestrian 20 players, can win the World Series. I might even quibble that maybe Jonathan Sanchez, and certainly Brian Wilson, were not key ingredients -- reducing the number of golden boys needed to about 4, maybe 4.5.
A. Agree 101% that a Stars & Scrubs template, for a $100MM roster, is a big... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/02/10
Q. So what happened to that [83 bat + 102 pitch] SF team the next year, 2009?
A. They turned it into an [82 bat + 121 pitch] team.
You could look it up. All in the world the Giants did, in 2009, was find three league-average SP performances to put behind the Stars, Lincecum and Cain.
They found two journeyman relievers, Howry and Affeldt, and Brian Wilson arrived on the scene (like Lueke, Cortes, League or whoever).
That's how easy it is to turn things around, when you've got the couple-three monster starters to finagle around.
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Q. And then what happened to the 2009 [82 bat + 121 pitch... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/02/10
Q. Any way to create that luck -- to fill your roster with Huffs, Burrells and Sanchezes, as opposed to filling it with Washburns, Silvas, Ibanezes and Batstas?
A. By not paying 100% for players who just finished their max level performances.
Stars & Scrubs -- and good roto management -- involves stuffing your roster with players you could get lucky on!
Roto champs are well aware of this. You don't win with Jarrod Washburn. Not unless your first 13 picks have laid the league waste. And then it's not Washburn causing the win, is it?
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Q. Like the Giants had a chance to get... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/02/10
Q. How would the Mariners recreate the Giants' 2008-to-2009 recipe?
A. By continuing to drown in their own soup on offense -- to the tune of an 82 performance --
And by finding a 100 ERA behind Felix in the rotation --
And by finding three scary guys in the bullpen.
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Q. Could that be done?
A. Obviously.
They'd have done it this year, except for the weird miscalculation on Ian Snell, and a few other general sadnesses in the evaluation realm.
How do you watch Ryan Rowland-Smith run a backwards control ratio -- with boiling gopheritis -- and keep sending him out there? Hasn't the M's... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/02/10
8 Comments
Q. What's a reasonable UP scenario for the M's in 2011?
A. I think any ML team can get to 92-95 on the OPS+, with just a couple things going right.
Some years, all teams are above 90. In the 2009 season, every American League team was 90 or better. In the 2010 season, every team other than the Mariners were 90 or above, and the M's were 79.
From a 30,000 foot view, it would probably be reasonable to assume that the Mariners are going to improve massively on offense. The reason being that they are an American League team, with an American League team's financial and developmental... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 11/02/10
3 Comments
For the record:
Matt Cain -- age 25 -- 1st-round pick out of high school in 2002 (25th overall) -- ERA+ 130
Tim Lincecum -- age 26 -- 1st-round pick out of college in 2006 (10th overall) -- ERA+ 119
Madison Bumgarner -- age 20 -- 1st-round pick out of high school in 2007 (10th overall) -- ERA+ 136
Buster Posey -- age 23 -- 1st-round pick out of college in 2008 (5th overall) -- OPS+ 129
Brian Wilson -- age 28 -- 24th-round pick out of college in 2003 -- ERA+ 226
Johnathan Sanchez -- age 27 -- 27th-round pick out of college in 2004 -- ERA+ 133
For the most part, frankly, the other guys are... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/01/10
Q. Is Moss slowing down?
A. When Moss first came into the league, it seemed to me that he could run past anybody, and now it seems like he can run past nobody.
But that happened with Steve Largent, to a different degree, of course. Up to age 25, he could burst past corners. At 26-27 he was still kind of dangerous. From 28 on, it was routes and hands.
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Q. For those of us who are casual fans -- what is the shelf life for an All-Pro receiver?
A. Oh, I dunno, age 37?
:- )
Here is where we baseball fans see the football manifestation of "fast players age better." Pro Football... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/01/10
9. Reggie Wayne, at 32, has 600+ yards in his first 6 games for Peyton Manning this season.
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10. Isaac Bruce had a big year at 34, and has been workmanlike the last three ... hardcore football fans will have to tell you, how much that was because of his teams.
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Other aged WR's include Charlie Joiner, excellent at 38 ... Tim Brown, a star at 36, retired at 39 ... James Lofton starred in our Strat-O-Matic leagues in the late 70's; he was real good at 36, retired at 39...
Still, a lot of other guys I remember as being stars at 36, now that I look at them, they had declined to "good" by... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/01/10
Q. By the time the ink is dry here, Moss could be a Charger or a Ram or something.
A. In which case, our opining would apply to whichever WR the Hawks brought in. 'Cause they better bring somebody in fast.
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Q. Would the Seahawks need to promote Charlie Whitehurst, for Moss to catch any deep balls?
A. I seriously doubt it, no.
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Q. Can Matt Hasselbeck still throw a deep ball?
A. He can't drop 12 yards deep, take two breaths, and hang the ball in the air 6 seconds for a 65-yard leap in the end zone, of course not.
Which is fine. The Seahawks don't have the pass blocking for that... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/01/10
Q. If the Seahawks don't have any receiving, and the OL is weak, is that your excuse for Hasselbeck?
A. Definitely a weak WR corps can make it look, to 6 billion people on the planet, like the QB can't play. Hey, if the receivers are covered ..... well, I play flag QB.
And Carroll's new philosophy is, take a sack, just don't throw picks. Hasselbeck is forbidden from trying to thread needles. And that's all he sees, many times.
Get you some separation, from the wideouts, and boom, Hasselbeck all of a sudden magically rediscovers himself
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Q. Can Matt Hasselbeck even throw 50 yards any... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/01/10
2 Comments
Q. So what difference would Randy Moss make, if the offensive line is going to get detonated the way it did, in the first half against Oakland?
A. None.
The Oakland game was a replay of a game Dr. D watched long, long ago in a galaxy far, far away...
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Q. The October 2010 Oakland game happened before?
A. In 1983, Chuck Knox' first (!) season with the Seahawks, he traded about eight draft picks for Curt Warner ... and then Hard-Knox-Willed the Hawks to an 8-7 record. "These guys have never won that one big game to, put them in the playoffs, for example," he said in the middle of... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/01/10
Q. If Okung is back?
A. The first game that Okung and Lynch appeared, that was Chicago, wasn't it?
We said then, that next time Okung got hurt, we'd find out how much of the offense was due to the LT and how much due to the RB.
Turned out 80-90% of it was due to the LT.
Okung returns this week, probably so does the entire Seahawk ballclub. Older I get, more I realize that the left tackle is the single most important position on the field, not far behind quarterback.
Get Okung back, or get some X's and O's to the problem, and Moss can be a game-changer for you.
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Q. Do you figure the... Read More