June 2011
Posted by jemanji on 06/29/11
26 Comments
=== Input - Crunch - Output Dept. ===
Kyle Seager has the following similarities with David Bell:
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Kyle Seager has the following similarities with Chris "Yoda" Snelling ...
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Identical "Keep the bat in the zone forever" LH swings
Short to the ball, long through the ball, unusual extension
Resilient "hit the inside half of the ball" approaches
Single-digit HR's, but lots of long doubles and triples
Hit left hand
A few biscuits away from 6', 200"
Unimpressive arms and legs; super impressive abdomens and hips
Cement-hard .400ish OBP's that survive league transitions (first game)
.... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/29/11
1 Comments
Acting today is soooooooooo much better than when I was a kid.
I thought the very best moment of acting in The Dark Knight was in the interrogation room, after Batman hit the Joker with a right hand that knocked the jam out of his toes ... Heath Ledger sucked in a sharp breath, carefully processed the pain before deciding, and ... with his next laugh, sold me.
The Joker found the experience info-taining. Batman didn't hit him again.
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Which you might relate to, either as an SSI denizen, or a Mariners fan, or both. You think they'll stop hitting us any time soon? I'm getting so I like the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/28/11
=== 20,000-Foot View Dept. ===
Tuesday night's game was a great baseball game to watch ... if you lived in North Dakota, were checking it out via MLB Extra Innings, and didn't care who won.
Watching this baseball game was just like watching my son play Super Smash Bros. Brawl.
It had the same little colorful whirling characters --- > battling back and forth, back and forth across the platform. First, Link is on the verge of falling to his doom, then Pit has his back heel to the edge, and hit-the-Z-button-attack they're back again to the other side.
He can watch that incoherent see-... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/28/11
2 Comments
Now, there's a closer...
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=== Craig Kimbrel ===
Is a baseball monstrosity, with his career strikeouts per nine in the majors at ... wait for it ... 15.4. He has a preposterous 103 strikeouts in 60 MLB innings pitched, and an average fastball speed of 95.9 miles per hour.
But in the 9th, down by one, Brendan Ryan turned one of those sizzling fastballs around for a line-drive single, and Ryan went to second base on a wild pitch ... 1 out, tying run in scoring position. In a vacuum (forget who the pitcher and hitter and runner are), the M's winning chances were now 25%. ... meaning that... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/28/11
8 Comments
=== Dustin Ackley ===
In the fifth inning, M's up 3-1, nobody on base, routine dog-days AB on a dog-days Tuesday ...
Ackley got a 1-0, 80 mph slider from Hanson, put a good swing on it, juuussssst got under it for a flyball-8 .... and SLAMMMMMED his bat on the ground in a barely-controlled rage.
Ackley is in a rage? That he didn't take Tommy Hanson deep ... in Ackley's second week in The Show? Isn't Ackley supposed to be busy ... being afraid?
Jack Nicholson once said, Star quality is when a cat walks on stage and everybody keeps looking at you. I'm completely mesmerized by Dustin Ackley... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/26/11
6 Comments
Q. Nice day for Ackley on Sunday.
A. 3-for-5, yeah ... and none of his base hits were crushed like that fly ball out to Stanton was.
In his first 10 days in major league baseball, he's hitting .300/.364/.567 (with 3 BB vs 3 strikeouts) and that is despite a handful of unlucky outs.
Everybody seen enough? This guy's a 3 hitter, not a 2 hitter. He ain't spraying the ball around on the ground giving you a hit-and-run game: he's leaning out to RF on the pitch, trying to break the ball in half.
That 2 hitter stuff is label, label, label. The guy's not huge, he plays second base, he must... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/26/11
3 Comments
Q. It can't be this yoo-gly. In 6 of the last 8 games, they've been locked down to 0, 1, or 2 runs. Bad luck? "Untimely" hitting?
A. Luck doesn't have anything much, we could say anything at all, to do with it. They're this bad.
At first I went, hey, on Sunday they had 8 hits, six walks, and several rocked XBH's. But only two runs... guess they're just playing in bad luck.
Nope: Runs Created says that the last week they should have scored 11 runs, not the 13 they actually lucked into...
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Q. What's the essential problem?
A. They have three outfielders who hit like 1964 Dodgers... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/26/11
2 Comments
Q. Why is Gutierrez playing over Halman?
A. You got me there. It is painful watching the OF's move in one step per game on him. He's got 23 hits and 19 are singles. 300 feet is his distance now.
Check the "Dustin Ackley's Secret" post today, the pictures with each hitter's load, and notice that Gutierrez is flat-footed and weight forward, even before he starts his swing.
But, you can think of half-a-dozen feasible reasons about Halman ... their getting Gutierrez up to speed, or Halman has a big hole in his swing we have not perceived, or a bunch of things. I dunno. I don't buy any of... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/23/11
5 Comments
Or, if you're feeling pusallinamous, a golfclap. Let's count the radical interventions on this defibrillated offense:
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1) The Mariners ate Milton Bradley's contract. What was that, $12M. Like Guido said in Robert Asprin's Myth series: "Nobody's got a million bucks to spare. Even if you got it, you don't got it to spare, know what I mean?"
Howard Lincoln gets megaprops here. The corporate process for sinking this kind of money is not pleasant. But the 2011 Mariners intend to win baseball games, and the suits are in the fight with the grunts.
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2) They benched Chone Figgins. Or so... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/23/11
6 Comments
Q. Does the mainframe have an MRI machine in there anywhere? You mean dead-arm as in "refractory posterior capsular contracture of the shoulder," or you mean "vaguely tired arm"?
A. Simply the latter. Pineda is obviously -- and very understandably -- fatigued. There is no question about it.
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Q. Obviously fatigued?
A. He came out of the gate throwing as hard as he possibly could, leading the AL in velocity by a mile. It's not that Justin Verlander and Felix Hernandez can't rear back. It's just that, at this point, they know how to pace themselves.
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Q. Does it worry Dr. D that... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/23/11
Q. Could Pineda be on the verge of catastrophic shoulder surgery?
A. No, my extraterrestrial contacts have consulted the 2031 HOF plaque, and we are happy to report that Pineda will never be injured...
:- ) Felix Hernandez could be on the verge of catastrophic surgery. And, yeah, loss of stuff frequently presages surgery.
But Pineda doesn't look like he's in pain to me, FWIW. Guys whose arms are hurting -- they keep their arms as still as possible (experience talking here). Pineda tosses the ball back and forth from glove to hand and back again ... enthusiastically bobs it up over... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/23/11
1 Comments
Q. Is Pineda a star at 92-95 mph?
A. Well, today he took another step down in velo ... and had one of his two or three best starts.
7 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 9 K ... he had 17 swings and misses ... let's break Pineda down into three pitchers, at three velocities.
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Q. At 94-98 mph, Pineda reminds you of who?
A. Of no pitcher I ever saw, at any time. He reminds me of Clemens or Colon or Schilling, add a Kerry Wood slider.
Kerry Wood 1997, maybe? No, Wood didn't have the command. Even Randy Johnson had the two pitches, but not the command. Pineda at 94-98 has the best stuff of any... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/22/11
15 Comments
... that being, Momentum Is Only As Good As That Day's Starting Pitcher.
Earl made that dugout observation ---> at the end of his historic managing run, not at the beginning of it. A Cy Young SP's affect on a team's psyche was (inferentially) one of the reasons that all of Earl's teams began and ended with the aces that he deployed in his rotations.
If you're not quite sure what Earl meant by that, consider the Mariners on May 15th. Their club record had plunged from 14-16 down to 16-23, and the reason it had done that was the worst possible. Brandon League had set a club record by... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/22/11
7 Comments
=== Uniformity of Motive, Dept. ===
Aaron Laffey's catch was unpossible. ... and yet, sometimes it seems like about 80%, 90% of major league pitchers can make that catch.
I used to play slo-pitch with a pitcher like this ... their biggest guy would hit a screamer one-hop through the box, and our guy would just fling his mitt, and it seemed like he caught it every time... I thought it was freaky, but Laffey's catch easily topped any of his. And you see that all the time.
Why should ML pitchers all have hands like Omar Vizquel? The gap between me, and the world's most physically superior... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/21/11
7 Comments
And, as you can see by the points column, Taro's won-loss record has been the result of a boatload of luck.
Taro lined up Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Santana and Shin-Soo Choo early enough in the draft, but his value picks have been more to the point: SS Escobar, LF Michael Brantley, and CF Jacoby Ellsbury have given him heavy point-scorers at the bottom of his lineup.
He's been active both in the trade market and on the wire: Mike Moustakas, for example, was a Taro-nator the moment he became eligible.
Taro's rotation? Felix, Verlander, Lester, and Carrasco. Remember this is a deeeeeep 12-... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/20/11
14 Comments
One was born in Venezuela on July 27, 1992, and, almost 19 years later, is listed at 6-4, 195.
The other was born stateside two weeks after, on August 13, 1992, and, almost 19 years later, is also listed at 6-4, 195.
They are both right-handed and can bring the ball in the mid-90s or higher.
Vicente Campos is young for the short-season Everett AquaSox, and Taijuan Walker is really young for the low-A Midwest League.
We were all duly impressed last year when Nick Franklin ripped through the Midwest League at 19. Well, Taijuan Walker still has two months to go before he reaches that age... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/19/11
2 Comments
=== LADIES AND GENTLEMEN, VARGAS HAS LEFT THE BUILDING ===
(For you Generation Z'ers reading, Elvis Presley feared that the mob would rush the stage after his first six encores. So he would have the arena lights suddenly turned off, and some guy would turn the lights back on and announce, "Please remain calm. Elvis has left the building." There, now you get the announcer shtick when somebody hits a HR.)
Once again, the Mariners' number five starter has kneed a Quinton "Rampage" Jackson-sized opponent --- > in the man region. Behind Jason Vargas, the Mariners in 2011 have beaten:... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/19/11
13 Comments
=== PUT ME IN, COACH ===
The boys at USSM have argued that LF defense is extra important in Safeco. On Sunday, it was.
In the first inning, with two on and two out, Ben Francisco lofted a short popup to the no man's land behind SS .... you know that spot equidistant SS-CF-LF?
I wondered if Gutierrez was going to get it... probably not. We're down 0-2 in the first?!
Guti didn't get it, but Greg Halman did. Never thought for a moment the left fielder could get anywhere near it.
I've seen that play made, oh, two-three times since Safeco opened. And it was the ballgame.
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I believe that... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/19/11
14 Comments
1. We know that he's a freakazoid.
2. We know that he has 80 HIT, 65 PWR, 65 SPD, 55 defense and that he'll be among the league leaders in walks.
3. We know that he is Edgar Martinez, plus LH, plus SPD, plus MI defense.
4. We know that he is an ML All-Star, a young franchise player, a player that you perhaps would not trade for any other player in baseball.
5. We know that he is going to be productive, immediately, this year, this month, this week.
6. We know that he is a Freddy Garcia-type psychopath with (1) zero respect for the games of the established major leaguers he is... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/19/11
25 Comments
=== EYE and Pitch Recognition: 80 ===
Sabermetrically: Ackley was leading the PCL in walks by a wide margin. He had like 131 walks in 30 games, or thereabouts.
So nobody doubts the BB's. Goody gumdrops. Here's one part of his game that we don't have to argue about.
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Still, from a scouting standpoint, here's the entry ....
::ahem:: It is pure baseball bliss to watch Ackley, ball nowhere near its destination, completely relax off a pitch that, much later, winds up 4 inches outside. I'd watch a baseball game just to watch Dustin Ackley do that during a pitch.
Edgar used to do this... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/18/11
12 Comments
When I was ten years old, I'd take my Reds baseball cards and line them up around the field ... and in batting-order formation...
For the first time in 2011, Wedge fields something very similar to what my baseball cards would have looked like.
We're not talking pitcher-batter matchups, not talking sophistication about the way hitters interact, not taking into consideration who's hot this week or who's hung over or who can hit pitchers they haven't seen, not talking sabermetrics at all ....
Just talking the best hitters on the team, Wedge has these guys going:
1 Ichiro rf
2 Ryan ss
3... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/17/11
28 Comments
... and, it sez here, probably immediate production from Mr. Ackley.
Can't guarantee 15 homers here to the wire in 2011, though it wouldn't surprise. But Ackley definitely projects as a .300/.400/.500 hitter. There is no question about it.
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Q. Why do you say, about the power?
A. Let's start with this pic:
It's just a tad grainy :- ) but .... imagine if the end of Ackley's bat were painted white, like the sights on a target pistol. Roy Oswalt would be able to see the entire white circle, although the ball is over halfway to home plate.
And note carefully: this particular screen... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/17/11
9 Comments
Q. The Ugly: how "natural" did Ackley look out there?
A. He didn't look natural, whatsoever. He looked like a Michael Jordan-level athlete, playing out of position.
An example, the bouncer that Ryan Howard hit to him early in the game, Ackley had been playing several steps on the outfield grass. He correctly charged the ball, taking control of it, but now check his position just as he reaches the ball:
The ball is just about to hop UP from here, so Ackley has raced in and mis-timed the hops so that he has a tough little short hop. Also, how do you run in ten yards, and then wind up... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/17/11
8 Comments
Spec sez:
I think Wedge loves the kids-n-vets mix & match.
I think he likes Jack Wilson as his reserve infielder and I think he likes Jack Cust as his extra bat. I foresee:
Guti-Carp-Halman-Peguero-Cust as 5-to-make-3 at CF/LF/DH
Ackley-Kennedy-Figgins-Wilson as 4-to-make-2.1 at 2b/3b/backupSS
He doesn't like playing rookies every day and he's said so -- and I wouldn't be surprised if they kept this roster indefinitely. LRod was done in by bad BABIP, but he also just landed on a roster with too many infielders.
In 2007, the Oakland A's had the following players NOT among their nine... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/16/11
15 Comments
I am a late buy-in to Mike Carp, but suddenly I'm psyched about Ackley-Carp-Smoak going all Edgar-Olerud-Boone on us.
In which case Figgins only has to be a fast David Bell.
(and, by the way, if you look at their numbers -- Kyle Seager is David Bell)
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Setting defense and health aside, I'm curious about how people view/compare Carp going forward to what might have been with Rendon going forward. I'm not totally sure that Rendon would do better in the minors than what Carp's done, though my sense is Rendon has more upside if he's healthy. (yes, we could have had them both, but that's not... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/15/11
19 Comments
If you're trying to think of ways to boost Dustin Ackley's cyber-popularity during the M's day off, aside from having him played by Will Smith, we're not sure we can help.
But if you're looking for a decent read or two, to pass the time on the Longest Day Ever, we suggest the following pairings for your Doppio and almond biscotti:
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Jan. 2010 - SLG at UNC ... College stats can be tough to translate, but Tim Lincecum fanned a lot more hitters than did Brandon Morrow - in the same league, against the same hitters. Though a small man, Timmy was a unique intersection of Ichiro-like... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/15/11
2 Comments
PROPS TO A TOTALLY "FRESH" SKATEBOARD KICK UP OFF THE PARK WALL:
The easy-squeezee headline will be that Carlos Peguero lucked out.
... not only did his two-bouncer hit the base, but it caught the base perfectly up off a short hop, and shot madly up off the wall for a 720 ollie. Or something.
It wasn't luck, though. It was fate finally relenting. At the time Peguero's bizarro hit flew over a disgusted Erick Aybar's head, the M's had 14 hits, walks, and SB's to the Angels' three.
Don't try to make believe like you got ripped off, Erick. We won't hesitate for one SECOND to send Carlos... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/15/11
7 Comments
PROPS TO MANLY MEN DOING MANLY THINGS.
Dan Wilson, in the booth, said he met Olivo before the game and gave him a hug ... Wilson, in the booth, had been taken aback by Olivo's physical power.
My own (Jeff's) first stepdad was a guy with a 50 coat and 34 pants, a bouncer who could pick up engines out of trucks without cherrypickers. I know all about guys who are like leather wrapped over iron...
Think about the different people that Dan Wilson has been around, in hockey and in baseball, and think about his reaction to Olivo. And think about Olivo's little half arm-swings delivering the home... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/15/11
21 Comments
PROPS TO BASEBALL'S BEST STARTING PITCHER ... well, we may be exaggerating, but only a little. In Erikkk's last nine starts -- since he kicked the rust off -- have you recognized anybody?
8+ strikeouts, 1+ walks, 0.3 homers, 1+ ERA ... Erikkk
7+ strikeouts, 1+ walks, 0.6 homers, 2+ ERA ... Cliff Lee, 2008-10
Cliff Lee has always had one (1) edge on Erik Bedard: innings pitched. But if there were a 6-7 inning Cliff Lee with health questions, that would be Erik Bedard.
As a matter of fact, when Bedard's right, he's probably even a skosh better than Lee is. Of the two of them, Erik... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/14/11
13 Comments
Rick, the former publisher of Caffeinated Confines, currently has the #2 points total in the 2011 SSI Roto Smackdown. - Jeff
The Riddle of the Amazing Disappearing Chone Figgins.
This we could ponder for years, 4 to be exact, at the cost of 8 mil or so per. As I do, the words of the incomparable sage Bill James, in an extended interview with the Times' Geoff Baker, haunts my mind. At the beginning of the 2010 season, while the Figgins to 2nd - Jose Lopez to 3rd experiment was underway, Geoff asked Bill about this, and Bill's response went something to the effect of:
"We've learned... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/12/11
20 Comments
(Full disclosure dept: This article contains a section that tilts at saber windmills. If such discussion tends to annoy you, please view our alternate ending.
This great sabermetric article argues that "pitch framing" is a skill worth +20 to -20 runs per season. Chris Gimenez was, over the one season considered, measured to be good at pitch framing, and Miguel Olivo to be poor.)
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Q. Two HR's today. Baker credits Olivo with leading the M's to the top of the division. General celebration all around. What was the December 2010 SSI crunch on Olivo?
A. Here y'go, amig-o. In four... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/12/11
23 Comments
(Full disclosure dept: This article contains a section that tilts at saber windmills. If such discussion tends to annoy you, please view our alternate ending.
This great sabermetric article argues that "pitch framing" is a skill worth +20 to -20 runs per season.
The value of "pitch framing" was concluded to be worth as much as having a "pitcher friendly" umpire vs. a neutral umpire.)
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Q. How do you predict the output of a machine that has 25 moving parts, no one part of which you can confidently predict?
A. Geoff Baker's Sunday "my bad!" is a terrific article even by his own lofty... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/11/11
42 Comments
Here's our pitching contract situation:
Felix - through 2014
Pineda - through 2016
Vargas - through 2013
Fister - through 2015
Bedard - through 2011
Vargas and Felix are both about to get more expensive. Maybe we do use the majority of our FA funds on Bedard. But we also have the following arms in system:
Hultzen (assuming a signing), lefty who could be ready in a couple of months to a year.
Erasmo Ramirez, RH who can come in with ridiculous control and be a #5 pitcher shortly.
Andy Carraway, another RH control pitcher but one who is taking easy laps around AA
Mauricio Robles, lefty who... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/10/11
21 Comments
Seemed like the game coulda gone either way ...but the M's had 21 bases on hits and the Tigers only 9. They were lucky that the game was tight. Which is to be expected, since it was Erik Bedard vs Brad Penny. The M's are favorites in a lotta games started by their Big Three.
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=== Justin Smoak ===
No sooner do we finish debating the concept of the re-set ... than Justin Smoak steps out into the box, waits back on an outside curve ball, and puts a thunderous and game-winning swing on it. Way out to the off field in a big park.
He honestly did seem much crisper at the plate today. ...... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/10/11
10 Comments
=== Chris Gimenez, 3b/1b/Bedard Scourge ===
First off: Gimenez advances to 3-and-9 (.250) and his SP is not knocked out of the box. The M's gave up only 2 runs to a lineup that was 15-and-4 vs LHP's. There's our nod to equity in cyber-journo-shtick.
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John and I played a game, guessing how many times Bedard was going to shake off Gimenez each pitch. Typical was four times. I did not notice a single pitch on which Bedard did not shake him off, including the first pitches of innings.
So about the 3rd inning I challenged John, "okay, let's see who can guess the number of shakeoffs," on... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/10/11
8 Comments
Which would actually be Taro, who is 9-0 in SSI now, but ... hey.
Even if comments aren't intended as supplications to the luminescence that is Dr. Detecto, you know we gotta handle the letters with care.
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A TAD-BIT ENTHUSED ABOUT CARP PLAYING LF:
[Tad] Mike Curto wrote the following "...I was surprised they DH'd Carp and Peguero played left field - it seems to me the defense would be better if they flip-flopped."
Carp also commented to the media that he primarily played the outfield as he was coming up thru the Mets' minor league system. So this is not Carp's first rodeo when it... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/10/11
8 Comments
Q. Is it such a big hairy deal for Ichiro to sit one game? Doesn't he play 156 per year or something?
A. It actually is a big hairy deal, as we were surprised to note from the back of his bubble gum card.
In the last seven (non-ulcer) seasons, Ichiro has played in 162 games three times and he played in 161 the other four times.
Ichiro was given five (5) games per year off under Lou Piniella. But then Ichiro got only three and one games off under Bob Melvin ... and of course Mike "Entitled Vet" Hargrove let Ichiro write the lineup card. Under Hargrove, Ichiro ossified his... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/09/11
5 Comments
Q. What has the mainframe said about Carp in previous years?
A. Getting that first glimpse in 2009, we opined that he did everything right ... except that he had a static, lifeless swing. This left him doomed, IMHO, as a projectable 110 OPS+ type 1B with bad defense, and who needs that. It's an MLB(TM) player who will play for the Royals.
This winter, we noticed wayyyyyyyyyy late -- but earlier than anybody else, other than HQ :- ) -- that Carp had developed serious plus power in Cheney. And that the intersection of these two ideas put Carp on the radar. This put his SSI projection... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/09/11
20 Comments
Q. Has Carp been getting lucky in Tacoma?
A. That's weird, yeah, we remember seeing some complaint like, calm down, Carp is nothing special. He's just 2010, plus some BABIP luck, so don't expect much.
I don't get that, because:
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(1) So .... suppose he is only as good as 2010, like that's damning? Check this out:
48 homers in his last 167 games, 2010-11
43 in the previous 343 games, 2007-09
Now you're going to say, "well, he's no different in 2011 than 2010." um, ???
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(2) I mean, I guess you're saying that in 2010, he "only" slugged .516 in Cheney ... ergo, that's who is now... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/06/11
50 Comments
Q. The Day After, is the mainframe still popping, crackling, and smoking in anger?
A. You can only grok Dr. D's position on Danny Hultzen through a little war story.
Bobby Fischer once wrote about one of his "evergreen" chess brilliancies...
In the '63 U.S. Closed, he produced a historical work of art, a "light, airy" Bishop & Queen attack that was Zen-like in its economical but long, angular moves and in its creativity. ... everybody was celebrating with him after the game. Then some patzer went, "Hey, on move 16* what if Black had moved the other Rook?"
The grandmasters waved it... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/06/11
36 Comments
Q. What does SSI consider a Z-Axis Lefty?
A. A left hand pitcher with a 90-92 fastball, a superb changeup, and command within the zone.
See, the plate is the X-axis. The knees to the diaphragm, that's the Y-axis. But the back of the strike zone to the front of it, the depth in the zone, that's the Z-axis.
Batters don't stand there and swing at a pitch in 2 dimensions. Visualize a little light dot that appears for .1 second, and you have to swat it, and it's not appearing on a window; it's appearing within a refrigerator-sized box. Got it?
Hitters talk about the Z-axis more than the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/06/11
46 Comments
Q. So why wasn't everybody all over him?
A. Apparently because the light bulbs are not on, regarding Z-Axis Lefties.
All people figured was, "He's a 90 mph lefty with a polished game," like he's a decent #3 SP, which was what McNamara put into the postdraft quotes. A lot of people (not including the M's) must not have perceived the high-strikeout guarantee that you can get with 90 mph.
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Q. Is Cole Hamels good enough to take with the #1 pick?
A. YOU HAVE GOT TO BE KIDDING ME!
High picks are not about comparing ceilings. They are about comparing floors.
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Look, the Mariners don't... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/06/11
13 Comments
Q. Makeup?
A. Here's a big thing, now. Zduriencik has this thing with finding LHP's based on makeup. Here's another Capt Jack LHP call. Get ready.
I like the "hockey player" comp: ferociously dialed in between the lines, mild-mannered off it. Greg Maddux, Jamie Moyer.
Saw one comment that Hultzen has "big league game prep" -- goes through drills with focus and a purpose.
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Q. Are the reports of 95 mph interesting? Does he have upside?
A. One of the things I like best about drafting Hultzen: he has no upside. You know what I'm saying? You get exactly what you see right now, and no... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/05/11
8 Comments
IN AIKIDO the number two Law of the entire sport, #2 out of 1-4, is to "relax completely." To trust your ability to avoid the attack so that you can counter ... ironically ... more quickly.
Sadaharu Oh went to the founder of aikido for hitting advice. (Be advised that aiki-baseball crossover is not Dr. D's invention.) O'Sensei said, "don't try to anticipate the speed of the ball. Let it arrive at its own pace, and be there to greet it."
.........
Greg Halman's relaxation on Sunday, when he got three solid hits, was phenomenal. He waited peacefully at home plate for the pitch to move... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/05/11
1 Comments
Q. So what's his problem? Why's he getting hit in college?
A. We turned on the Arizona State game, fully expecting to see nothing more than a BABIP problem and fickle fan-scouts. We expected to see a #1 overall pitcher who was camouflaged by this or that, much like Michael Pineda in early March.
Dr. D saw the first two pitches and his jaw dropped in shock. He saw two more and he ran off screaming into the night.
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Q. More hyperbole about the problems Cole has?
A. Gerrit Cole has many problems with his delivery - his knee is very bent "at the top" so he defeats his own purpose - he... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/05/11
21 Comments
The Paxson hip...
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=== Caveats and Quid Pro Quo's Dept. ===
We're going off templates and scouting reports. And a little video, except for Cole, on whom we've seen more than we'd have liked.
SSI doesn't believe that McNamara and Zduriencik would have "vibed" their choice to their own employees, much less to outsiders. In our consulting days, we didn't have any luck reading senior management's poker faces. They'll get down to contract day and then they'll shock you.
Post-draft, SSI is going to be optimistic about this admin's selection. For example, if they pick Cole, we're going to... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/05/11
25 Comments
=== 3 FRANCISCO LINDOR, SS, HS ===
THE KEY IDEA IS: Lindor looks like a much better dice roll than other high school players.
(1) The significance of his glove is that he plays in the majors in the middle of the diamond.
(2) This intersects with the fact that even if he doesn't have power, he will very probably have a Johnny Damon-style OBP/SB game in the majors. It is the SS position, and the low risk of return on Lindor's OBP, that decides here.
Lindor, almost uniquely among HS players, comes with an all-important FLOOR -- that of "above-average ML regular." The upside is exciting... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/04/11
7 Comments
On Geoff Baker Live, one of his 8,000 listeners asked why Josh Bard isn't up yet (thanks Moe!). Geoff remarked, with a pleasant but weary air of indulging the hopelessly naive, that Chris Gimenez played in Cleveland for Wedge.
Oh.
Now, don't jump out of the blocks on "Ready;" let's wait for the blank to fire. 25th man Rudy Rostering is a common, accepted, and often useful blending of the politics-vs-production needs in a sports locker room. Coaches keep guys around who set the pace in the practice drills. Hey, you know that Coach K's 12th man is the best blinkin' 12th man in the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/04/11
2 Comments
Am on the run, but didn't see much 'round the 'sphere to read for all y'all, so just real quick about the 13-4 ride we're on :- )
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PROPS TO TH' CONTENDA: The Rays wiped out 7-2 and 7-0, and then just baaaaaaaarely bailed out by their rookie sensation. If Joyce hadn't thrown out Smoak on that deep SF, they'da been tied after nine. This is what a series loss for the M's used to look like: crushed twice and then maybe squeaking one out.
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SLOPS TO THE NEW KID ON DA BLOCK: Just an observation here, not a college thesis. Jeremy Hellickson illustrates, for me, the idea that when a batter... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/03/11
2 Comments
=== Throw Another Hog On the Barbie, Uncle Elmer ===
The Mariners hit 4 homers last night, the first game all year with more than a couple HR's. And on TV they riffled the mug shots across the screen like a Hold 'Em flop: Smoak, Peguero, Cust. All of them looked like football players. And it hit me.
It wasn't the UZR-vs-Runs conflict that had ever aggravated me so much. You know what it was? It was the fact that my fave ballclub had gotten so small.
Tonight, the second game of the year with 3+ homers. And in consecutive games? Is it the weather, or what?
Whose faces on the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/03/11
1 Comments
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=== Inkblot Test, Dept. ===
Who would you prefer at 3B: Figgins or Kennedy? Our reactions tell us a lot about our baseball prejudices (mine too).
SSI bemusedly offers the suggestion that, very loosely speaking, we could argue for a 1972 third baseman in favor of a 2011 third baseman -- and, though slip-sliding back to a retrograde past, believe that we have just now discovered something new under the sun. ;- )
Hey, guys. Every 1930's manager who ever selected a fast player in a corner, was endorsing UZR in that case. Managers have (often) gone with the glove man since 1900,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/03/11
6 Comments
=== Future's So Large I Gotta Wear Shades, Dept. ===
It hits me tonight that what I hated about the recent Mariners teams was the tiny players at every corner slot:
Figgins 3b
Ichiro lf
Endy Chavez, lf
Casey Kotchman, 1B (plays as a small 1b)
Joe Morgan once scoffed at a team for having non-HR players at the corners. "That gives you an unbalanced ball club," he growled. Joe was a tiny player himself, now.
*Unbalanced.* Perhaps Joe was intuiting that the lack of power could create domino effects in the tactical game on the field?
A team that signs Chone Figgins as its key FA, already has... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/02/11
5 Comments
PROPS TO NASCAR. Felix had thrown 130 or so pitches last time around, and Dr. D flicked on the game with eyes peeking through slitted fingers. As a very general rule, long outings the game before mean higher ERA's the game after.
Dr. D's jaw dropped. Felix threw the entire game effortlessly, joyfully, and in absolutely pitch-perfect tune. I wonder if his pitch counts have been holding his career back. I bet they have.
James believes that today's Felix-type horses are not getting enough work - that "stretching out" a guy like Felix is good for him. Unfortunately, Baseball Prospectus'... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/02/11
2 Comments
PROPS TO 8 RUNS IN 3 INNINGS. They say that in low-scoring games, each play means more, so your excitement level is higher.
But I will take as many 8-run games as you want to give me, amigo. I don't care if the M's win 50 blowouts in a row - I'll wallow in the 51st just as much. :- )
I grew up on the Big Red Machine. They'd mulch another hapless opponent 7-2 on Monday Night Baseball, and I couldn't wait for the stats in the paper the next day. "Let's see, if we can get Geronimo's average above .300, we'll have 6 of the top 15 batting averages..."
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PROPS TO SCORING FIRST. Felix gave... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/02/11
11 Comments
Spec sez:
What's your feeling on Ichiro? A lot of people seem worried he's "aging" (aren't we all?) and on the decline. He always slumps at some point. Any reason to think things are different this year?
Shannon Drayer, linked by Spec, sez:
Shannon Drayer: Thank you. As I type this Ichiro gets a hit. Worrying about aging at this point of his career is legit. It is going to happen someday. The concern is in the way he has been making the outs. He is pounding the ball into the ground rather than driving it. His line drive rate has been steadily declining for the last few years and that... Read More