December 2011
Posted by jemanji on 12/29/11
9 Comments
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Q. How do we organize our thinking about the 'bridge starter'?
A. The Mariners want a bridge starter who keeps them in the hunt ::blinks:: during the 1H 2012. You want a bridge starter who can be swapped out for James Paxton on one week's notice. Let me read those last four words again.
The Mariners have one of the best Big Threes in baseball now, rich team or not. You're talking about the #4 and #5 starter slots here. That could be Hultzen and Paxton, and if not both, it certainly could be Charlie Furbush and one of them. And if not either, it certainly could be... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/29/11
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Q. Why can he still pitch?
A. Millwood's cut fastball, and slider, are still effective, that's why. Blinkin' few 37-year-old pitchers can still snap off a cut fastball. This guy is made outta leather, or somethin'.
Why do you think Andrew Bailey went out as cheap as he did? 100 innings, and the man's cut fastball is lost in intergalactic space. Bailey's elbow was ruined after, like, 300 cut fastballs total. The guy is going to be closing on guts and guile. Hope the Boston writahs cut him some slack.
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Q. Remind me again what a cutter is?
A. A slider is like 50%... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/29/11
9 Comments
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Q. Comparable pitchers, to the 37-year-old Kevin Millwood?
A. The defining attribute of an innings eater: very low BB's, with gopheritis. These guys are, on a game-in game-out basis, going to make you beat them, y'feel me? Good choice for a big park.
Chris Volstad and Jeff Karstens are younger pitchers with K / BB / HR profiles like Millwood's. Bronson Arroyo on the other side.
Joe Blanton is a pitcher who reminds me a lot of Millwood, nowadays. Jeremy Bonderman in his last few years. Jeff Neimann on the higher end.
Blanton and Millwood have homophonic names... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/27/11
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There is a story about Bobby Fischer, ten years after retirement, showing up in a chess book store in a small town in Europe.
One person was sitting at a table, going over an old lost game from the 1920's, book in one hand, moving the pieces with the other. Everybody is peeking up from their books, trying to pretend not to notice that it's Fischer. Bobby walks over to the table, glances at the game for two or three seconds, and booms "OH, THAT'S THE Nc6 GAME." And tromps over to scrutinize the wall with books on openings.
A master, present at the scene, goes over to watch... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/27/11
1 Comments
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James wondered, "What was the most talented team, on paper, that ever went to spring training?" (The guys in the picture were the core of 9 of the 19 most talented rosters ever fielded.)
He asked, "What if we developed a method for asking not how many games did a team win, but how many games should they have won?"
Why would you want to know that?
Because, James said, there are a whole list of questions that can be asked through that approach that are totally invisible to the approach of looking at after-the-fact statistics.
How good was Lou Piniella, for example, as his teams... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/27/11
1 Comments
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=== Most Talented Roster Ever ===
Just in terms of the talent they fielded for their Opening Day ballgame, which team was the greatest ever assembled?
The 1931 New York Yankees.
They had 8 players in the regular lineup -- of these, 6 were Hall of Famers. The shortstop was not; he scored 107 runs and drove in 100. The LF was not one of the HOF'ers; he scored 120 runs, had 122 RBIs, and 61 stolen bases.
In the starting rotation, they had 3 more Hall of Famers (Ruffing, Gomez, Pennock) plus the #4 starter, Hank Johnson.
If there was ever a team of Hall of Famers, the 1931... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/27/11
10 Comments
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=== Simple Research of Your Own ===
Almost all of the 20 most talented ballclubs of all time were the 1923-32 Yankees and the 1970-78 Reds. That is, 17 of the top 19 teams ever were Ruth/Gehrig or Rose/Bench teams.
You can investigate team chemistry fairly easily yourself. Just go to baseball-reference.com and look up the 1925 Yankees, one of the most talented teams ever built, and figure out why they were -14 below .500.
1920, 1921, 1922, 1923, 1924, the Ruth Yankees were great. 1926, 1927, 1928, the Ruth Yankees were great. In 1925, using the same players, they were... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/27/11
12 Comments
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MLB TRADE RUMORS (Professor): I have acquired interesting new information this Tuesday! With these facts, a breakthrough in my investigations appears to be imminent!
MEDIA (Gilligan): That's great, Professor!! :: turns to Skipper :: What did he say again? :- (
THURSTON HOWELL III (ML executives): (interrupting) Why, my boy, isn't it it obvious? The most lucrative solution is in a shorter term with a higher annual return.
MEDIA (Gilligan): That's what I said! :: turns to Skipper :: Isn't that what I say?!
SKIPPER (Boras): (booming voice) IT'S NOT ALL ABOUT MONEY... Read More
Posted by USAsNewFavPASTIME on 12/23/11
4 Comments
The Seahawks will host the San Francisco 49ers at 4:15 today at Centurylink Field . Both teams come into the game playing good football and have given some respect to a division that sent a losing team to the playoffs last year. That team was the Seahawks, but this year the 49ers are the team set to cruise into the playoffs. This time, they will take a winning record, though, as they are currently 11-3 this season. They are also coming off a big win against the AFC North powerhouse Pittsburgh Steelers. The Seahawks will look to get to a winning mark as they currently sit even at 7-7.
The... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/22/11
10 Comments
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Got my prrrrecious in the mail today. First up: find those Mariner players that HQ likes more than Seattle fans do.
Highest on the list of HQ raves: Michael Pineda. Well, it woulda been pretty much impossible for HQ to wax more ecstatic than SSI, probably. But we can tell ya this: HQ likes Pineda a whale of a lot more than the "Shed Pineda Before It's Too Late" bloggers do.
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HQ gives Pineda as the #9 roto SP draftee in 2012, American League, giving the Mariners by far the best 1-2 starting pitcher combo outside of Los Angeles.
They run a blizzard of component... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/22/11
10 Comments
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There has been a suspicion, fueled not least by Dr. D., that Jack Zduriencik has a gift for evaluating ML-ready talent, but that his evaluations of established ML players might not be so remarkable.
Benihana, shedding light rather than heat, lists every FA acquisition that Z has made:
2009
Russell Branyan:1yr, $1.4M = 1.8 WAR
Ken Griffey, JR: 1yr, $2M = -0.3 WAR
2010
Chone Figgins: 4yr, $36M = 1.1 WAR (10) -0.5 WAR (11), TBD, TBD
Eric Byrnes: 1yr, $0.4M = -0.5 WAR
Ryan Garko: 1yr, $0.55M = released before the season
2011
Jack Cust: 1yr, $2.5M = 0.1 WAR
Miguel Olivo... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/22/11
5 Comments
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Gio Gonzalez and somebody for RHP A.J. Cole, RHP Brad Peacock, LHP Tom Milone and C Derek Norris.
Somebody being a 23-year-old who just posted a 5.04 ERA in the low minors.
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=== RHP A.J. Cole and RHP Taijuan Walker ===
Seedlings to Stars has Taijuan at #23 in o.b., with A.J. Cole at #30. Prior to 2011, my fave mag, BaseballHQ's, had Cole as one of the few 9/10 pitchers in the minors, and then Cole went out and posted this line in 2011.
Both Cole and Taijuan are teenaged RHP's with big velocity and excellent results for age-and-level. HQ goes so far as to call Cole "tall... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/22/11
10 Comments
And that's what the face-to-face meets are for.
Do you think if YOU went to lunch with Zduriencik in a fancy restaurant, that over the course of two hours, he could convince you that the Mariners are going to be contending, 2012 or 2013? You personally. How do you think you'd feel, after that lunch?
That's where Z discloses to you where the payroll is going. You remember his remarks about the owners now loosening the purse strings? That's what he tells you, the 'net rat. What does he tell Fielder?
That's where he discloses to you the pushes for Gio Gonzalez (and comparables), for... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/21/11
30 Comments
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Jack Zduriencik has a quote out there saying, in lawyer-speak, "I'm tired of this. If Boras and Fielder are going to jack us around, we'll get it done some other way. We don't have to have Prince Fielder this winter." And Z means what he says.
Amigos have mis-interpreted Zduriencik's annoyance to say that the Mariners don't want to put a legit offer out there. The Mariners have already put the biggest (informal) offer out there. And you remember Z's remarks that he is "excited" by the funds that ownership has made available. The M's have signalled their intentions to... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/20/11
7 Comments
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A scintillating report from Geoff Baker on the Mariners' financial future.
This is the kind of article that led sportswriters to swap in the job title for "journalist." Geoffy sat there in court for a week, took notes, and, as usual, put his finger on the key points at the crime scene.
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Baker would love to see the Mariners sell, preferably to somebody like Paul Allen who likes to win. Geoffy makes his case, too, that the Mariners have done things to "lean out," suggesting a sale to him.
Personally, will believe it when I see it. I believe the M's ownership... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/20/11
7 Comments
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=== C.J. Wilson ===
It is possible that Yu Darvish will pitch better than CJ Wilson has, and will join the Big Five as a Tier I starter in the AL. But it's asking a whale of a lot.
C.J. Wilson just finished a 16-7, 2.94 season. That's a 2+ ERA, in the Texas heat, in that stadium, after 223 innings were completed. I would bet against Felix Hernandez accomplishing that. Hey, I'd bet against Bob Gibson His Ownself accomplishing it. A 2+ ERA, full season, in Texas? Slap me silly.
And C.J.'s FIP was the #8 in the American League. The guys ahead of him were The Big... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/20/11
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=== The Bad (for Texas) ===
I'll tell you what bothers me about the deal.
First roto league I ever played, everything was going great, and about July-August I had a chance to (pretty much) flummox one of the fish owners in the league.
Was going to deal Felix, Carp, Brendan Ryan and Brandon League for six guys I liked better -- a 14 WAR for 17 WAR type trade. You know, become even farther ahead in the talent war.
I instant-messaged with an older guy who'd won a lot of leagues. He said, "You're not really thinking of DOING that, are you... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/20/11
5 Comments
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=== The Ugly ===
We are told that when the Rangers win things, which is often, that they drink sparkling apple juice until Josh Hamilton (AA) and C.J. Wilson ("Straight Edge" Taoist with no alcohol or girls on the road) have showered, dressed and left the locker room. Then they break out the beer and champagne.
We are told that the other 23 Rangers are glad to do this. I am here to tell you that the first I have ever heard of pro sports athletes being glad to do any such thing. Any sport, any era.
C.J. Wilson went on ESPN, after signing with the Angels, and stated that ... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/18/11
5 Comments
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Next week's Charger-Lions game is a tight matchup, with an early -2.5 point spread. If the Chargers win that game, the Seahawks are practically in control of their destiny.
If the Chargers lose next week @ Detroit, the Seahawks have a second draw at the deck: Atlanta finishing 9-7, with the NY Giants beating Dallas to send everybody to 9-7. This is not farfetched by any means.
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ESPN has a peachy keen "NFL Playoff Machine" that allows you to noodle around with different NFL ballgames, the next two weeks, and then see the playoff matchups at a glance.
Once... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/18/11
15 Comments
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Rizzo being super topical right now. For the Padres, he appears to be redundant with their shiny new bat, Yonder Alonso. Of course, he's even more redundant for us, since Mike Carp is probably better than Yonder Alonso and Justin Smoak certainly is.
So, here's a chat thread :- )
Malcontent sez,
the Padres/Reds trade made me briefly think about the possibility of acquiring Anthony Rizzo. This also occured to others.
But when I think about it, The Reds acquisition of Latos actually pushes the Cubs back a bit for Fielder as the Reds, who were pretty serious contenders... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/17/11
24 Comments
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I/O: Chris Larson's divorce team, arguing low, claims the Mariners are worth only $551 million. His wife's team, arguing high, claims that they're worth $750 million.
CRUNCH: Forbes, which had been whistling in the dark, guessed $449 million. In 1992, the ownership group paid $212 million. Here is Baker's fine article.
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1. So they tripled the value in 20 years. You might figure that they're making money had over fist, but not really. 200% in 20 years is not exciting by rich-man standards. A guy with $100M wants to double it every six or seven years, at the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/17/11
12 Comments
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Q. What happened back in 2010 with the Dodgers?
A. He lost his fastball and, in BaseballHQ's words, "it all came crashing down."
For those who just joined us, here is George's career path to date:
2006-07
Pleasant surprise with M's
2008-09a
Orioles' closer
2009b-10
Destroyed in LAD. 2010: 50/95 RH batters get on, 3K, 8BB vs RH
2011
Using same stuff as in 2010, is top LOOGY in ATL
Saying that Sherrill's fastball dropped from 90 mph to 88 mph doesn't do the problem justice. His fastball has been flat, lifeless, just a beach ball for RH's. Here, take a look at this... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/17/11
19 Comments
As far as we know, two teams circle the one chair, the music stops ... and the Cubs wave their hand and walk off. Naaaaaahhhhhh. ... can anybody even tell me who the second team is? Seriously. Number Two is now Boras' Rabbit Out of a Hat.
Grumpy sez,
Isn't it kind of worrisome that 29 other teams are NOT interested in Fielder? Are we missing something here?
My reaction too, Dr. G. Cool Papa Bell, and a few others, had predicted a soft market from the very beginning. Today he sez,
He's a bad long term fit for every NL club but that's just because of the rules. In the AL, the biggest... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/17/11
2 Comments
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Merks wants to know, how do you rate these three SP's, and what does it tell us about Gio Gonzalez' trade value.
Start with the understanding that Gonzalez, Matos, and Pineda are loosely comparable. They're all very young, very TOR, and very valuable young aces. We're not going to lose clarity by --- > taking a scalpel to the differences.
Objectively speaking, Mat Latos should be a bit more valuable than Gio .... except to any GM who is confident, like Dr. D is, that Gonzalez is about to leap forward. I mean, you wouldn't argue that Gio should bring more than Mat Latos... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/15/11
3 Comments
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Q. Where do you start, in talking about Gio Gonzalez?
A. I'd start by watching this video about four or five times. It contains everything that is wacky and wonderful about Gio.
Note the pitch at the 0:48 mark, which is for some reason thrown in 1.5x fast forward, and after which Gonzalez barely manages not to fall down.
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Q. In the words of John McEnroe: You can NOT be SERious.
A. Here's the link.
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Q. What are his defining attributes? A comp for Gio would be, like what?
A. Thusly:
1. Must be lefty.
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2. Must come around the corner sidearm. Not just a low arm... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/15/11
18 Comments
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Q. Why would the Mariners want to deal, say, Taijuan Walker or James Paxton (in March) for Gonzalez, considering that those guys could be better than him anyway?
A. At such time as a Dustin Ackley proves it in the big leagues, even for a month or two, his value doubles.
The M's minor leaguers are as good as it gets. But they haven't jumped over the hurdle that Gio Gonzalez has.
The MID scenario: even if Gio doesn't get any better, he gives you 3.5 cheap WAR. There are a few guys who don't.
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Q. What's the worst thing about Gio?
A. Taro ain't going to like the way... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/14/11
18 Comments
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USSM assumes, sensibly, that any Willingham- or Cuddyer-type signing puts the kibosh on a Fielder king-hunt. Geoff Baker and Jason Churchill demur, saying that if Fielder parachutes into Safeco (sending the tarp crew scrambling madly for cover) that the Mariners are certainly not done.
Baker in fact says that a Willingham- or Cuddyer-type signing makes a Fielder signing more likely, because Prince's main holdup is that he's dubious about the M's playoff chances in 2012.
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I think that Michael Cuddyer is likely to hit about what Hanley Ramirez will in 2012. Consider... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/14/11
9 Comments
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20-team roto champ Cool Papa Bell goes 6-for-6, tying Cobb's and, um, Bell's marks:
I figured the Cardinals to be a real threat since they have to replace Pujols. But their GM was interviewed this week and had this to say:
Can we safely assume you will not be in the Prince Fielder sweepstakes?
“That’s a safe assumption.”
With that things are looking fabulous.
During the season people just assumed that there would be twenty teams throwing crazy offers at Prince and that he was guaranteed to get a deal that was absolutely ridiculous. As I tried to explain, the Yankees, Red... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/14/11
10 Comments
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Sez Spec,
Of course, it's possible that your big free agent signing could be a massive, complete, total, not-even-on-the-postseason-roster bust, and your top-of-the-draft talent could stay healthy and coalesce anyway, and you could get lucky with some mid-grade signings and make it all the way despite that. Not that you want to bank on it, but . . .
See also:
Zito, Barry
2010 San Francisco Giants
Just so!
..... We don't need to see FA misfires as death knells. The tower bell gongs, your team rolls over, and pays Albert Belle to scowl from the stands as you lose 100... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/13/11
6 Comments
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I/O: Word is that Boras will "let the market simmer" during December.
CRUNCH: Scott Boras finds the foamy salt spray not nearly as foamy or salty as he'd hoped, and pulls Prince Fielder back off the bow.
Meanwhile, Boras consoles Prince with a 73-page "ARod: a Historical Perspective" type hardcover. Prince, grinning from ear to ear, mounts it front-and-center in his trophy case and spends his December flipping through the glossy photos comparing him to Babe Ruth.
An ML exec compares this annual "Boras Iconic Client" hardcover to the swimsuit issue. He knows it's... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/13/11
25 Comments
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Q. What's the handicap now?
A. Boras is awfully unpredictable, and this winter we are getting a lot of stealth action. No guarantees. But some things look relatively safe to say:
MIAMI - They actually like Gaby Sanchez at 1B, and they do not have a DH slot available -- especially for Prince's after-30 years. You're an NL team, you're going to pay Prince $25M to play first base when he's 35?
The Marlins have consistently said they don't want him. At 8-10 years in contract length, NL action is a serious, serious question for Prince. This man is not going to be able to play... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/13/11
18 Comments
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Q. So he just had an unlucky BABIP in 2011, right? Figure him for a 50% bounceback -- to 2010 -- and call it a day?
A. He had an unlucky BABIP in 2011, wrong.
Ramirez is taking a big leg kick, is loading the bat heavy, then letting the bat go and ... there is just nothing there. He looks like he's swinging through water.
The bat speed is down, the swing length is up, there is just no explosiveness or quickness. It's as though he'd lost some of his physical gifts. Oh, wait...
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Q. That's a tools-scout call or a saber call?
A. It's an eyesight call that is 101% backed... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/09/11
13 Comments
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The above is from Tom Tango's fine site. Before proceeding further ... amigos might want to take a look at this chart and this chart.
Look at how MANY of those teams are right on the correlation line. The Yankees (far right) are almost purely a function of salaries paid. They have done slightly worse than they should have, for the dollars.
People want to look at the Twins and say, "money's not such a big deal." You might as well look at the A's and say, "offense isn't such a big deal. They do okay with better-than-average pitching." That shouldn't distract us from the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/08/11
18 Comments
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... to win 95.
Back in the 1970's, Hall of Fame QB Fran Tarkenton wrote a book. There was a paragraph in there, on page 138 or something, that stuck with me for thirty years.
Tarkenton talked about some game that his team lost by a low score ... I think probably it was the 1974 Super Bowl, which went to the Steel Curtain by a 16-6 score.
The sportswriters had snarked at him, after the game, whether he felt bad for his defense. You get it? The guys on the other side of the locker room deserved to win. And you let them down by not holding up your end of the bargain... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/08/11
20 Comments
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The Angels landing a #4 hitter and a #1 starter ... of course Dr. D doesn't disagree with anything the commenters here have said about that.
Since SSI's info-tainment is contrarian, and only because we live to serve, here are a few of Dr. D's favorite reasons to rally. (You know the backstory behind the baseball term "rally," no?) You could list quite a few more.
Take heart, lads :- )
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=== Moving Parts, Dept. ===
In 2003, the Angels had a mediocre OPS+ of 97. They signed Vlad Guerrero, who would hit .337 / .391 / .598 for them in 2004.
But in 2004, their teamwide OPS+ was... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/08/11
27 Comments
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Pujols is a mortal lock for the HOF. That's point A. In 2006-09, he showed us all what Lou Gehrig must have looked like. 2006-09 was one of baseball's all-time great offensive detonations.
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But Dr. D had Pujols on his roster during the 2011 season. On a day-to-day basis, Dr. D watched carefully as the post-30 Pujols showed him something rather less than Lou Gehrig.
Here are Albert's SLG numbers as he has aged from 32 to 34 ... er, 29 to 31:
29
.658 SLG
30
.596 SLG
31
.548 SLG
And his OPS+, once a reliable 180-190, is now 150.
When we last saw Albert, in August and... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/07/11
56 Comments
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Know this, going in, that Jack Zduriencik has a big dose of Justin Smoak in him. He genuinely does not want to hear applause as he steps into the box; he wants applause as he's rounding third base in a trot. When he steps into the box, he wants to see a lot of texting in the stands.
Zduriencik also has a large "I'll believe it when I see it" streak. He is sincere when he intones, shoulders slumped, that he half-expects another team to be "lying low, playing possum," and to jump in at the last second with a Boras-pleasing deal.
And if that occurred -- if the M's offered... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/07/11
2 Comments
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I/O: Thus the quote from Drayer:
"At the end of the day, whether it is a year from now, two years from now or three years from now, the ownership group here, the organization, whether it is this year, will step up and give us the resources that we absolutely need to get us over the top and I think we are all excited about that," he said.
CRUNCH: At times, SSI hasn't given Lincoln and Armstrong enough credit. In retrospect, they have been (somewhat) willing to clear extra money when they judge the timing to be right.
They cleared huge offers for ARod and Junior, "... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/07/11
8 Comments
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I/O: Cubs want shorter years, higher dollars.
CRUNCH: I love fans. You know I do. But based on the chat threads you see ... fans would prefer 6/$175 to 100/$175.
Tell them that they could get Felix for 5 years, $25M per, and they'll put on their dancing shoes. Tell them that they could get him for 8 years, $20M per, and they'll fret about Felix' $20M being on the docket in 2019. ... the fact that they scored the last three years for $11M each won't register.
Think it through and you'll see that more years, fewer dollars, are to the ballclub's advantage. The... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/06/11
22 Comments
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... and he thinks he's got a small pair here.
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Fun article from SSI hero Jeff Sullivan. Note the word "chimed" at the end of his first paragraph, because I disagree with that word. Jon Paul Morosi doesn't "chime." Other than that, Dr. D agrees with all the other words in the article.
Jeff Francis is the definition of a Tommy John lefty: allow singles, but allow nothing else. His BB's are waifish, his groundball ratio pudgy, his HR ratio ectomorphic, his K rate anorexic. Jeff Francis is a solid #4 pitcher in the big leagues. The Tommy John lefty would rather... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/06/11
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I didn't make square contact with the cutter that Spec threw in there. He went cutter on back-to-back pitches and this time we stomped on the back foot and squared it up ... :- )
Both Clement and Smoak were picked in the 1st round out of college at 21, signed during the summer and went to the Midwest League:
.... [series of age-arc parallels given ]
But . . . Clement did show the kind of stats that indicate the ability to play in the majors. He slugged close to .500 time and again. He drew walks. He didn't strike out all that much. In fact, he put up pretty much... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/06/11
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There were no red flags in the minor league performance of Jose Lopez; he was always three years younger than his league, swinging beautifully, and posting absurdly-low K rates.
I didn't think at the time, that it mattered much that Jose Lopez hit every batted ball into a 10-degree wedge of left field; Juan Gonzalez did that. But MLB pitchers simply fed Lopez the kind of pitches that, if pulled down the LF line, would be weak ground balls.
Like we say, find your own minor-league heroes who had hidden problems with their games.
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As mentioned before, the main... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/05/11
.............. Don't think this one's got the distance ....
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Spec sez,
How do you diagnose Clement (vs Smoak)? His minor league OPS of .860 is eerily close to Smoak's .859. Both headed up the glide path at similar rocket pace before hitting turbulence and injuries.
Clement isn't even on Pittsburgh's 40-man roster anymore.
I've had great faith in Smoak recovering, but the Clement example gives me some pause.
Spec is thinking like a human being. A single powerful example is going to hit us harder than a hundred passing examples. One time I wrecked my motorcycle real bad, and guess... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/05/11
........... Hey, did Carp just roll his 18 ?!
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=== Tail-Light Guarantee ===
In which the used-car salesman guarantees the vehicle until --- > he can't see your tail lights any more. :- )
When we sent Cliff Lee to the Rangers, they sent back Justin Smoak with an eezee-squeezee infomercial guarantee. He was guaranteed until he walked around the airport corner out of their view.
We mentioned Matt Bush. While we're on the subject, how about ...
Richie Robnett, who was Billy Beane's first pick in that 2004 draft?
Did you know that 50% of the top 6 picks, in the 2003 draft, never played... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/05/11
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In previous articles, SSI argued that it wouldn't matter anyway, even if Jeff Clement and Justin Smoak were stylistic doppelgangers. Each new human being is born with a different brain, different learning patterns, and different ways of processing a pitched ball in flight.
But for those who might enjoy a list of the differences between Jeff Clement and Justin Smoak ... as you know, Dr. D lives to serve.
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=== Difference One: Flashes ===
Jeff Clement has a lifelong 78 OPS+ in the major leagues, with a catastrophic EYE of 24:103.
He has never put together any single month (... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/05/11
............ a little T-Rex action for yer? Somebody stapled his elbow to his ribs.
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=== Difference Two: Plate Coverage ===
Almost the day that Jeff Clement was drafted, Inside Pitch gave me the bad news. This kid can't see the pitches, he said. Looks like Thome, sees like a football player.
Clement had short arms, a huge chest, no leverage, a muscled sledgehammer swing, and (1) he couldn't hit anything on his hands. He also (2) couldn't see anything bendy.
(3) Guess what happened when something bent AND moved to his hands? One of the worst pitch type values in the history of F/X... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/05/11
21 Comments
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We talk a lot about track records. Okay, let's look at the track records. In the NCAA, Clement's OPS was 1000 as a soph. Over the next two years, he warn't goin' nowhere. Here are the OPS's for both lefty mashers in college:
Clement
Smoak
Soph
1000
1000
Junior
950
1100
Senior
1050
1250
Ain't that the kind of thing Sandy talks about?
Minor-league records are often apples-to-oranges ... big park in AA at age 22 vs. small park in AA at 21 vs normal park in A+ at 21 after the best pitcher got promoted.
But the NCAA lines above, them are apples to... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/05/11
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Q. So what's the holdup here?
A. Three things.
First of all, let's not be among those chowderheads who need for a prospect to hit 40 homers as a rookie. ;- ) Edgar Martinez, in his day, had his doubters. He had them worse when he started slow in the bigs. Jim Lefebvre tried to flush Jay Buhner out of baseball.
Jose Bautista? Alex Gordon? David Ortiz? Ryan Howard? Check out Carlos Pena, once the #1 lefty hitter in the minors ... who needed until age 29, and then at age 29 slammed up an OPS+ of 170.
Young kids sometimes need a year or three. That's all.
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Posted by jemanji on 12/05/11
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=== Let's! Go To! the Video! Tape! Dept. ===
In June 2011, M's behind 0-2, here is a two-out, three-run jack in which Smoak visibly reads Guthrie's offspeed, pauses a tick, and then takes a Branyan-like uppercut to simply deposit the ball in the bleachers.
Here is a 97-mph Justin Verlander fastball, outside black, on which Smoak goes four bases the other way.
Here's the Junior swing, mirror image, going deep foul-pole-to-foul-pole.
A line-shot homer off a James Shields change. Shields has one of the best RHP changeups in the majors, with a lifetime +1.52 run value per... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/02/11
7 Comments
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This Golden Rule that we discuss a lot lately, that of wanting to see uninterrupted development? Sho' nuff, it is an important generalization, but not an absolute.
The higher a player's career arc, and the earlier ... the better it is for him. That's axiomatic. And if the arc is perfectly smooth, so much the better. If a player adjusts to new pitchers without the slightest hiccup, beautiful. That's a piece of evidence in his favor.
But the career arc is just one factor to look at. In every realm of life, human beings learn in different ways, and jell at different... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/02/11
3 Comments
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Q. Okay, here's a non-star from Japan. Can those guys play in the bigs?
A. Well, Kawasaki does make the All-Star game and the WBC there. But you know what we mean. It's like you sent LeBron and Kobe and Dwayne Wade to play in a higher league, and they did kinda good, and now you want to send Kris Humphries and see what happens.
My instinct was, "you gotta be kidding me. They'll knock the bat out of his hands. Go fight in your weight class, kid."
I mean, Nishioka came over and posted an ISO of .029 -- that is, in about half of a season, he had 50 hits, of which 45... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/02/11
5 Comments
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Q. Can NPB stats be translated?
A. They can't, no. There haven't been enough players come over.
Translations can't be done in the same way that major league equivalencies (MLE's) have, anyway. Would we post MLE's if only ten minor leaguers had ever come up?
We remember that Clay Davenport once overhauled BP's translations based on one player -- after Godzilla came over, he ratcheted the estimates way up. And said so.
With Dr. D's typical great modesty, he announces that this next table will equip YOU to translate NPB-infielder stats about as well as anybody else can do it... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/02/11
26 Comments
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Q. Making his ML comp who?
A. Pokey Reese. Well, that's one of about a hundred guys you could pick in this template. Pokey would hit .250 with forty walks, a few doubles, and he'd steal bases. That's a 70 OPS+.
Kawasaki actually puts a big swing on the ball. See how similar his swing is to Ichiro's. You wouldn't put it past Kawasaki to hit 20, 25 doubles in fulltime play, like Pokey used to.
Dr. D wouldn't expect Kawasaki to come over here and hit .125. He'd be pretty confident that Kawasaki would (eventually) pitch in on a Jack Wilson level.
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His fans... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/01/11
5 Comments
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Terry McDermott says,
I think a huge amount of Ackley's obvious appeal is aesthetic. I know, I know, the data has been run out and it indicates greatness. But what persuades isn't the data here, it's the eye. The kid looks contemptuous at the plate. Is that all you've got? Really, that's it?
Put him where he belongs, CF, and we can start examining those Dimaggio comps a bit more closely.
That's a good point - that Ackley looks so gorgeous on the field that maybe we're getting skewed a bit. J.D. Drew maybe somewhat similar, but then again, his healthy year he did get... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/01/11
at this URL. If we Photoshopped a Mariners' uniform over Morgan, and put Ichiro's head on there, would you suspect anything wrong?! Here's an Ichiro pic from the same point.
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Ichiro has defined a generation, but Ackley hits precisely as Ichiro would, if Ichiro wrapped his bat around his head to point at the shortstop.* We would be derelict if we didn't acknowledge the reality that as great as Ichiro has been, Ackley is Ichiro Squared. He does what Ichiro does, with much less reaction time.
Scouts have a HIT skill and a PWR skill. It's kind of a shame there isn't just a BAT... Read More