January 2012
Posted by jemanji on 01/31/12
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Paradigm-changing discussion going on at Bill James Online. They're considering the problem of the most balanced pennant winners in history -- teams that won because their #8 hitters and #4 starters played well, not because their Albert Pujols played well.
The 1930-31 St. Louis Cardinals had amazingly low standard deviations of Win Shares between their 13 regular hitters and pitchers. In other words, the #4 starter was much more similar to the #1 starter, in St. Louis in 1931, than was the case for the Yankees last year. We're used to thinking of CC Sabathia vs Felix... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/31/12
17 Comments
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=== Whither Pineda and Doogie? ===
Can depth overcome marquee power? Sure, the same logic applies on the mound. If you don't have multiple aces, you can certainly accomplish the same thing if you can -- and it's a big IF here -- have the best 4-thru-9 pitchers in the league.
All M's fans, by which I mean "Dr. D and G-Moneyball," have been fretting about the -3.5 WAR each that were subtracted when Zduriencik shed our second and third aces.
It's true that you're asking a lot, if you're asking James Paxton and Hector Noesi to rack up 3.5 WAR apiece. But the thing is, they don't... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/29/12
22 Comments
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=== G-Money Sez ===
This is why I can't understand quitting on the season. A healthy Guti adds a TON of value to the roster. The kids doing what we think the kids can do makes us a threat in this or any division.
Where's Matt with his projections to say we're a 94 win team? With THIS club I'd believe that upside. We could be freakish. Dustin Ackley was a 5 WAR player over a full season. Healthy Guti could top that. If they're ready? Look out.
Or yeah, maybe the soup isn't done simmering yet and we can't serve it in 2012.
But I'll want to see some evidence of that... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/28/12
20 Comments
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Q. What is SSI's sabermetric calculation on Franklin Gutierrez' gastrointestinal tract?
A. Most of us realize that when we hear that Justin Smoak has lost 9 lbs, that's just noise. "Justin spoke to me in Arizona this March and he personally assured me that he is going to have a great year," a friend tells us. Noise. 90% of us pay zero attention to it.
Dr. D is more dogmatic about these "Noise" classifications than anybody. He wouldn't give you six cents for the fact that Figgins and Seager and Ryan and Smoak went to a mini-camp and had dinner with Eric Wedge. He has... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/28/12
2 Comments
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Seen at Bill James Online:
After most of a big offseason making some good teams great and some great teams better, which team do you think will have the most success/win the most games next year?
Asked by: bill byrd
Answered: 1/28/2012
I have no idea. I'm in the knowledge business; that would be the [baloney] department. Third door on the left.
Bill refuses to guess who will win a division, any division, any year. He has refused to predict pennant races since, I don't know, would guess about 1985 at least.
From my standpoint, that's kind of unfortunate, because... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/25/12
21 Comments
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Dr. K sez,
If I were Jack, I would be aggressively pursuing a salary dump in the outfield or third base. My criteria would be not too many years left on the deal, say one or two. If you could get Carlos Lee for a bucket of balls, I do it. He doesn't damage your flexibility. I don't want Alfonso Soriano because he has three years left on his deal. Sadly, doesn't look like there are any good salary dump options at 3B.
Alternatively, they wait until the trade deadline and if the M's surprise us, they will have the payroll flexibility to add salary.
What I don't want to... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/24/12
36 Comments
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Top 10 Things About Prince Fielder Going To Detroit:
12. Won't have to listen to MLB Network dudes talking about Texas' "Best Lineup Of Alllll (echo) Tiiiiime (echo)" (yes, really)
11. Series of fun blog posts vs. Scott Boras as "Ben Stein Without Charisma" (seriously, nice job, Scott)
10. Mariners no longer appearing in 20,000-vote MLBTR polls as "Other"
9. Will not have to watch 2020 Prince Fielder as penance for watching 2012 Prince Fielder
8. Mariners now have $3-4M, plus a Prince Fielder contract, burning a hole in their pockets
7. Boring Fielder watch now... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/23/12
12 Comments
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It's not hard to get a feel for the value of JESUS MONTERO, C if you zero in on the paradigm of player-pairs.
The generic adjustment is to assume that you'll see about 25-30 runs' worth of offensive difference between C and 1B. The M's, however, don't have Mike Napoli or Victor Martinez or Russell Martin at catcher; they have Miguel Olivo. And it ain't like Adam Moore is going to come up and improve the position.
For the M's, on Opening Day 2012, let's compare Miguel Olivo at his 2011 level of production (3.1 runs per 27 outs) and Justin Smoak at a 115-120 OPS+ level of... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/23/12
3 Comments
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Brian Cashman kidded Jack Zduriencik last week, saying that Albert Pujols' numbers are Montero-like. Cash was willing to go Mike Piazza or Miguel Cabrera on the comp, but Jay-Z raised him back with Albert Pujols.
Dr. D has seen zero commentary on this, other than on SSI. It is odd: nobody has been interested in even asking the question, "Why, exactly, does Zduriencik think that?" Possible answers:
Because he pulled the comp out of his ear?
Because he's trying to sell the trade?
Because he doesn't understand baseball the way we bloggers do?
Because of .... what?
Dr. D is... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/23/12
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Q. OK, he's got some PWR and he's got HIT at the same time. Is that realllllly so unusual?
A. Bill James wrote an article re-interpreting the McCracken premise (BABIP) and the Fangraphs-style GB, LD, FB, CT% etc and he started with this...
What makes hitters different from each other is four things. How many pitches they take, how often they hit the ball when they swing, how HARD they hit the ball, and how often they pull it.
Groundballs, they all hit .250 (or whatever). Line drives, they all hit .750 or whatever. Fly balls the other way, that's about the same too... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/23/12
1 Comments
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Q. How can Jay-Z, or anybody, compare Jesus Montero to Albert Pujols, when Pujols' strikeout totals were so low in the minors?
A. SSI suspects that Jesus Montero's HIT tool may be similar to Pujols', yes.
True, Pujols struck out only 47 times in 133 games in his age-20 minor league season. But how old was Albert, really, when he defected to the U.S. and played high school baseball here? How old was he when he played junior-college baseball in Kansas City? All we know about Albert is that he showed up in the minors, saying he was 20 years old, and that he had a .320/.... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/23/12
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Q. Why wouldn't CT% capture the HIT skill perfectly?
A. Because hitters swing at different pitches.
John Olerud routinely led the league in pitches taken. He only swung at pitches when he liked them. Who do you think is going to have a better contact rate -- a batter who only swings when he guesses right, or a batter who swings at everything?
Vlad Guerrero only walked 50 times a year, but his HIT ability was dialed way past 80, if there's a such a thing as past 80. The man could literally cover a pitch that bounced in front of him. And, true, that's reflected in a good... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/23/12
15 Comments
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Q. Suppose that I do want to use minor-league K%, and BB%, and ISO rates to develop comps lists. Where am I then?
A. You are still a couple tacos short of a family pack, if your destination is "Correct Projection City."
Look, supposing that you did have four guys with exactly the same stats, same time, same place. It is still the GM's prerogative to point his finger, and say "THAT one." It is not only his prerogative, it is his job.
How about the 2003 draft, when Jack Zduriencik had his choice of infielders - Ian Stewart or Rickie Weeks? Is that all there is to... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/23/12
1 Comments
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OBF sez:
Maybe The M's can throw their hat (and extra moolah) into the ring for this guy:
Yoenis Cespedes
There have been a number of teams lurking around him and he seems to have quite a bit of buzz coming out of Cuba. And unlike young guys like Yuni, he is a bit older and hopefully a lot closer to contibuting at the MLB level. I no nothing about him, but he seems to have some buzz and I am sure 10 million bucks or so would go a LONG way to convincing him to be a Mariner instead of a Cub ;)
When Cespedes decided to play in the Dominican League, the New York blog-o-sphere... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/23/12
3 Comments
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This rat cheer: POTD Kevin Millwood 2
Precious few 37-year-olds can still slice off a cut fastball. Kevin Millwood's elbow ligaments are made of leather, and his pitches still break two ways, left and right. He still has (had, at last sighting) the plus command.
Combine 4-5 pitches with command, and with MLB(TM) moxie and you've got a pitcher who WILL be effective. We're not talking about a #6 finish in the Cy, but if Millwood comes to camp throwing 88-89 mph, you can bank the 2.7 WAR.
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=== Rode Hard, Put Away Wet Dept. ===
If you ax an MLB insider what is going on here,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/21/12
16 Comments
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In Mariner Analyst's "So You're Telling Me There's a Chance .... !" department, the East Coast internet chooses to interpret even this optimistically:
Bob Simpson, who along with Ray Davis is a Rangers principal owner and co-chairman of the board, said that the Rangers are operating at a deficit and will until the new TV contract starts in 2015 .... Fielder is not a viable option unless his price goes down and he would accept a backloaded deal.
"If they come around to something we can do, we'll take a look at it," Simpson said.
In one-syllable words, so we can... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/21/12
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How much would these teams pay for Fielder? Well...
Whether you're a Bill James fan or not, you will concede that he is now a certified MLB(TM) front office executive. You can scoff at him honey, if you think it's funny, or at Dan Duquette if you like. John Hart, Bill Bavasi, pick one. But these guys can tell us what to expect from the owners.
James has been part-and-parcel of the Red Sox' free agent bidding for 10 years now. He knows rather more about MLB(TM) front office thinking than we bloggers do.
Bill put a number on Fielder. This number came down, I thought,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/17/12
21 Comments
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Q. Hey Doc - check this out: "Prince Fielder Has Made It Very Clear He Wants To Be With the Rangers."
A. Looking at the headline of the article, you'd think that Fielder had said that. Actually Grant says that the fact that Prince has not signed yet --- > is what makes it very clear that Fielder intends to go to Texas.
:- )
You get down into the article and it looks like nothing more than another round of "Seems logical to me" hypothesizing. The entire substance is this:
But it’s very, very clear that this is where he wants to be. He’s waiting all winter, guys who... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/16/12
32 Comments
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Q. What have we decided as to whether Montero will catch?
A. We've got one last guy to check with real quick, Jack Zduriencik, but we've agreed that he will start 2012 as either the starting catcher or a platoon catcher. And see where it goes from there.
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Q. When did we decide that?
A. At Fangraphs today, they have a long article up which is, inadvertently, a rewrite of SSI's analysis. It probably passed CopyScape, but I wouldn't be overconfident.
I'm kidding. It's clear that Fangraphs authors do not read SSI, being rather clearly unaware of when they're duplicating... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/15/12
6 Comments
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Jay-Z, smartphone to ear: ... So where are we, Prince? We've had a pretty good offer in with you guys for a while. Where are we at?
Prince: ... Huh. I dunno, Jack. Like we talked when I was up there. I don't see a lot of help. Dunno if I can play by myself.
Jay-Z: Well, suppose we line up a blockbuster and bring in offense to hit behind you. To get a team around you. Would that make a difference?
Prince: Oh yeah. If you did that, it sure would be a big positive. Yeah.
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Next day, or day after.
Jay-Z on phone to Boras: "Scott, Prince has... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/15/12
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By the time you finish this series, you'll know as much about the decision as I do, which is (1) more than any other blogger knows, New York or Seattle ;- ) and (2) almost nothing. As you know, Dr. D lives to serve.
Jesus Montero will be moved off catcher in either of these two specific events:
He is weak in each and every aspect of run prevention (not just in one or two), OR
He cannot call a game, and the pitchers hate him.
If neither of those two specific things apply, then Jesus Montero could catch in the big leagues, if you wanted him to.
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=== Quantifying Catcher Defense -... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/15/12
1 Comments
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=== Picture's worth 10,000 Words, Dept. ===
It's true that throwing, blocking, and framing don't add up to that much. But! That's assuming a certain minimum standard - a standard of excellence that all ML catchers have actually passed. If Dr. D or Silentpadna played catcher for the Mariners, the runs would add up not to -10 or -15, but to -300.
The catchers in the big leagues all have certain critical-mass standards they have to hit. Maybe that's what Law is saying? That you put Jesus Montero behind the plate, and the Mariners give up 500 stolen bases on the season... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/15/12
28 Comments
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=== Looks Better the Closer You Are ===
From the Larry Stone article:
Butch Wynegar, a former major-league catcher who has worked extensively with Montero as a Yankees instructor, dismisses the comparison to Piazza.
"Monty is not Mike Piazza," he told the New York Post last spring. "He is not going to be a hitter-only as a catcher. He is going to be an everyday catcher in the big leagues who can handle the catching. I truly believe that."
Law's focus on the running game is, am sorry to say, not on point. The difference between the best and worst catchers in the game, on SB... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/13/12
6 Comments
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Q. How do we organize our thinking about Hector Noesi?
A. By realizing first and foremost that he is a (fast-)moving target. Can you throw a rock and hit a stop sign? Sure. But how about a cat running at full speed, can you hit that? Let's give it a shot.
It would be one thing if you tried to guess how Shawn Kelley was going to look as a starting pitcher. But Noesi is zig-zagging across the grass on not one, but several major axes:
He is transitioning from the ML bullpen to the ML rotation, so we have 2 starts to go on.
He is transitioning from the minors to the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/13/12
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Q. Soooooo ... what does scouting tell us? What kind of pitcher is he?
A. SSI's defining comp-attributes are:
Hot 92+ fastball
Four pitches used 10% or more each (bewildering offspeed game) ...
... therefore no more than 55% fastballs
Good command and mechanics
NO signature wipeout pitch
Maybe it's just me, but I consider this the Cuban template, pitching based on confusion. Not junkball pitching, because the dude hits 96 mph. Confusion pitching.
Yes, yes, am aware that Noesi is not from Cuba.
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Q. Which right hand ML pitchers are in this "Confusion" template?
A. ... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/13/12
12 Comments
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Q. OK, how does the fastball grade out?
A. He averaged 93.3 mph last year, which is precisely what Felix Hernandez did, 93.3. If Noesi sustained 92-95 for a season, he'd be right where Felix is on velocity, about the 10th-hottest fastball in the league.
True, he was able to hump up in the bullpen, so maybe his velo will fall off some...
...but on the other hand, he's another year removed from TJ surgery, and reports are that he is sitting 93-95 in winter ball, hitting 98 according to Brian Cashman.
All these reports remind me of Freddy Garcia just before he came up as a... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/13/12
1 Comments
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Q. How reasonable is it to expect 180 innings at a 110+ ERA?
A. It's what Cashman expected, since he had already given Noesi a 2012 rotation slot. Over a whale of a lot of competition.
Cashman was sincere in anointing Noesi a starter for 2012, sent him down to get stretched out in winter ball. He sold Noesi's rotation spot pretty hard. The Yankees' brass and fans thought that Noesi was going to be a good young SP for them. In New York that's saying a lot.
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Q. UP scenario?
A. Noesi throws hard in 2012, with command, and his slider continues to pop the parachutes... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/13/12
6 Comments
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Q. First things first. What is SSI's Official Position on the trade, aside the fact that Dr. D hates losing Pineda.
A. Perfect example of a win/win deal, maybe one of the best such I've seen. Very well balanced.
Jesus Montero is, it says here, practically a guarantee to be a #4 hitter on some level. Of the subset of projections that are reasonable, Carlos Lee is just about the most-pessimistic reasonable projection possible; how are you going to find a decent Montero comp who is worse than Lee?
And Brian Cashman's projection is Mike Piazza or Miguel Cabrera.
Look... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/13/12
53 Comments
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(Now that he's gone, I realize that Pineda had become one of my five favorite Mariners ever. My EqA/Angst = [Randy Johnson Trade Day] * 0.6.
That doesn't mean that we can't try to look at the deal dispassionately. At best, the Mariners got Mike Piazza or Manny Ramirez for a pitcher with an Inverted W. At minimum, it's a thrilling baseball trade.
Jack Zduriencik has GUTS. Gotta love it.
Don't have time at the moment, so heeeeeere's Justin, a devoted minor league analyst. -- Jeff)
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=== Justin Sez ===
The age-gate players are mostly from the Dominican Republic. Significantly... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/13/12
9 Comments
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Jason has an interesting article up, in which he opines that the anti-Seattle stuff sounds like mostly hooey to him.
He relates a comment that I hadn't considered: the heat and humidity in the D.C. area. Very overweight people are indeed miserable in 85-90 degrees and 90% humidity. If I were Fielder, I might be all right with a road trip there, but to finish my sports career in that stuff? Yowch.
A reader replies, well, he lives in Tampa. Yeah, but he doesn't play sports outside in Tampa.
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Jim Bouton, in his July 4 entry in Ball Four, cracks "What could be... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/12/12
11 Comments
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... well, on contract extensions that apply to pitchers like them, anyway. :- ) Dr. D has had his fill with the non-baseball chat. Back on topic :- )
At Bill James Online you can pay $3 a month (is it possible to pay any less?) and, aside from everything else going on at that site, he'll personally respond to your questions. I think the last time I asked an online attorney for an opinion on property boundary lines, it was $80 or something for two paragraphs...
BJOL gave us fair-use approval to exerpt them, with credit. We asked a few questions about contract extensions... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/12/12
7 Comments
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G-Moneyball has a take that sounds out both the ring of truth and a call-whistle to middle ground:
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=== G-Money on Tebow ===
So Tebow Mania is rampant here. I love the kid. As a quarterback...he's growing on me, and I look forward to an offseason of him working with Elway and hopefully learning more advanced passing skills (ie, throwing to a spot and not waiting to see jersey numbers before letting go of the ball).
But as a man? He's a great man. When people interview him it's interesting to watch their approach. Most of the time, they ask the most insulting questions they can... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/10/12
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... by Bill James Online readers, that is. The Jan. 7 vote ran:
Players
Votes
Percentage
Edgar Martinez
47
75.8%
Andre Dawson
32
51.6%
Larry Walker
31
50.0%
Rafael Palmeiro
30
48.4%
Fred McGriff
22
35.5%
Kevin Brown
15
24.2%
John Olerud
11
17.7%
Bernie Williams
11
17.7%
Dale Murphy
9
14.5%
Lee Smith
9
14.5%
Jack Morris
8
12.9%
Dave Parker
7
11.3%
Jim Rice
4
6.5%
Don Mattingly
3
4.8%
Brad Radke
0
0.0%
Tim Salmon
0
0.0%
Brian Jordan
0
0.0%
Javy Lopez
0
0.0%... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/10/12
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Non-baseball series here. SSI readers have brought up the question of Tim Tebow's future, his impact on society, and whether we take the possibility of "Divine Intervention" seriously.
I don't think it's ever silly to verbalize a question that most people are already thinking about silently. Here Tebow was, getting abuse heaped on him for his religion, and then ... he immediately goes on a winning streak so improbable and sensational that he looks like he's got a pocket full of four-leaf clovers. Capped by a historic playoff game in which he throws for 3:16 yards.
... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/10/12
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The media's obvious hostility toward Tebow has galvanized a lot of people. Yes, there are some positive things on TV. But the over-arc'ing message is one that tells us --- > Tebow is weird. And that his praying is distasteful and inconsiderate.
The media's unfairness towards him has, as it does so often these days, caused a traffic jam of fans plowing onto the Tebow turnpike. There is a BleacherReport poll that asks, "Will Tim Tebow develop into a quality NFL quarterback?" and a huge vote is running 89-11 .... in favor.
Eighty-nine! Nobody's chance is that high. ... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/10/12
70 Comments
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Personal assessment here. It's my opinion; I could be wrong.
I don't think the media hates Tebow's Bible verses or kneeling as much as people think the media does. They don't take offense when David Ortiz crosses himself after a home run. Athletes can thank God for things in postgame interviews; reporters will roll their eyes, but that's just annoyance, not resentment.
I don't even think they take Tebow's Super Bowl pro-life commercial as the biggest issue, although that certainly was more than enough to make him persona non grata for life. Compare Curt Schilling. The... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/10/12
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=== Intangibles and Leadership ===
What do you all think of Tim Tebow? Here is a guy that doesn't, on paper, look to have ANY QB talent. All of the experts said things about him like, "embarassing", "will never make", "can't throw", "should be converted to tight end", "will never win a game" (then when he did), "will never consistently start" (then when he did), "will never make the playoffs" (then when he did) "will never WIN a playoff game" (then when he did)... you get the point.
It is interesting that the true grandmasters of pro football -- the Pat Gillicks and Jack... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/10/12
7 Comments
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=== Tebow's Game Style: the Mobile QB ===
And yet here we are, Tim Tebow is heading to the divisional round of the playoffs because of what? Poise? Moxie? Leadership ability? Character? Unique Physical Gifts? Divine intervention?
Tebow is in that class of quarterbacks whose biggest positive, in their first five years, is that they get more time to throw than other quarterbacks do. Michael Vick, Randall Cunningham, Steve Young, Vince Young, Bobby Douglass, Fran Tarkenton...
You know who was the 1980's prototype of this? John Elway!
Most of you amigos weren't... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/10/12
28 Comments
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=== Prayer - to Where? ===
If all your examples above are not enough, then Tim Tebow is the final nail in the coffin. If he doesn't convince you that sports transcends just merely the collection of a teams assembled physical talents and stats, then nothing will! ... Is it divine intervention?
Your opinion on this is as good as mine. But there is probably some percentage of readers, like 25%, who would like to hear whether I think that God has put Tim Tebow on a winning streak :- ) and why I reach that conclusion.
If you don't want to read my thoughts on that, then you... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/10/12
3 Comments
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=== Premise II ===
As a Christian myself, I don't believe that Christians are scripted to triumph over unbelievers in money, sports, fame, etc. as a result of God blessing them to do so. At least not typically; answered prayer is a complex topic.
Do Christians triumph over Donald Trump in business? Were the last forty Super Bowls won by athletes who were God's favorites? In what arena of American competition do Christians dominate in the year 2012?
Premise II: Tebow is not being granted football victories because he's God's favorite. If God has favorites, I suspect... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/10/12
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=== The Mariners' Tim Tebow? ===
Who can be the Mariners Tim Tebow? Is is Ackley? Is it Felix and he just needed a bit more talent to lead? Is it Prince that comes in and stirs the drink?
Well, as far as a catalyst as dynamic as Tebow is -- I'd say that in any sport, the comp attributes of a Tebow-type athlete would be
A hugely polarizing, controversial athlete ...
... who is a very good teammate in the locker room
Great personal charisma and magnetism
Talent that carries "mystique," potential, fear-of-failure and excitement for the team
A super-dynamic playing style... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/10/12
4 Comments
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As far as Boras waiting for Darvish to go back to Japan, cutting the M's legs out from under them...
1. If the Rangers are already above 5 x $10M, that's too close to Darvish's ask, to let the deal fall apart. How much more is Darvish going to get, by going back to Japan for a year? Is he going to score a 6 x $20M contract if he waits a year? Of course not, so the year back in Japan does absolutely nothing but give Darvish a chance to get hurt, and a chance to spend a nice long year touring Japanese baseball as a half-gaijin deserter.
We can be 95% confident that... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/06/12
23 Comments
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Mojo: We already have George Sherrill in the fold. Now, Z should concentrate on putting the band back together. We'll send them Gutierrez, Trayvon, and some UZRs.
Heh! It can be tough to get the Jimmy Page or John Lennon component into the bargain...
At a glance, Jones looks like a solution to the M's center field woes, and he's available. Does the idea hold up to scrutiny? Good discussion today on that very point. Have you seen the comments thread to this article, Mojo? The article was just published this morning, and there are already 60+ interesting replies. It... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/05/12
18 Comments
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Q. What do you crunch from a Bedard contract, with no team option?
A. That Iwakuma wants to come to the States, have a big year, and then get PAYBACK. Against the A's, against his agent, against Rakuten, and yes, against the Seattle Mariners. Or that's what I'm thinking if I'm him.
Capt Jack is all "He'll compete for a job" (despite the major league contract) and "We'll see what happens." Is that really necessary, skip?
Best-case is now: we get 180 innings of a guy who finishes in the top 10 in the AL in ERA, and then he moves on. This occurred when the Braves... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/05/12
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Q. What exactly did Rakuten do to him, again?
A. Rakuten had posted Iwakuma, and got jobbed out of 20 million bucks, and Iwakuma came back for a sour lame-duck season. You know, like if Prince Fielder had a signed contract in New York beginning in 2013, and then trudged back to play with a Brewer shirt on for 2012. Big fun.
Rakuten weren't exactly honorable as it pertained to the rest of Iwakuma's career.
OK, form circles between fingers and thumbs, cross legs, breathe deeply, allow the light to permate your soul ... now imagine vividly that, in April 2011, we had... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/05/12
6 Comments
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Ghost sez,
BBRef comp lists generally make no sense to me. They compare players based on counting stats accrued in a given amount of playing time (and age)...they tell you little about context, skill type or player family. BP's list at least include those phenotypes and some other info that helps narrows things a bit (plus the counting stats are better-adjusted for context).
That said...one pattern I'm noticing with both the BBRef and BP lists...most of the players on those lists evaporated or at least transitioned down to much lower production levels when they hit 30-34... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/05/12
17 Comments
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In 1976, the Mariners didn't yet exist. Neither did the Chicago White Sox: in 1976 the Sox lost 97 games, scored 586 runs (sound familiar?) and allowed 745, and hadn't done anything but lose since the days of Denny McLain and his 30 wins.
So why do Lonnie and I remember a 1977 White Sox team destroying the Mariners, game-in and game-out, and taking two or three curtain calls a game against us? (Yes, really. You could look up the curtain call thing.)
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=== Rolling Box Cars, Dept. ===
Tired of losing, Bill Veeck decided before the 1977 season that he was going to rent four... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/05/12
6 Comments
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Malcontent sez, I stand on my sinking ship. I think there's a decent chance for a breakout for Mark Reynolds.
He likely wouldn't cost anything we're afraid to lose .... I just got my first copy of Baseball Forecaster (Jemanji's commision should be in the mail) and Mark Reynolds leads all Major League batters in PX (A Baseball HQ stat for measuring power on contact), and they don't have a leaderboard for it, but his xPX (a general measurement of how hard a player hits line drives and flyballs) was higher than Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Joey Votto, Jose Bautista, Ryan Braun... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/05/12
15 Comments
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I/O: Nationals, on Thursday Jan. 5, declare themselves OUT of the Prince Fielder "sweepstakes."
CRUNCH: MLB Trade Rumors (quoting Jon Heyman), in its next sentence, overrules them: they're "deep in the mix."
As well, the Cubs and Jays have drawn the line at 5 years. This coming from breathless rumor-monger Heyman, of all people.
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Did you guys see Rizzo on TV a couple of weeks ago, when asked about Fielder? I mean, did you see him? His body language, tone of voice, etc., was exactly as if you'd asked Chuck Armstrong "So, you guys thinking about selling to... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/05/12
12 Comments
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I/O: A suggestion that the M's give Fielder a 3-year opt-out, with all the money paid after the opt-out.
CRUNCH: Well, sure. If the agent and player would accept this, that's what you'd do. I imagine this proposal was made 5 minutes after the first opt-out discussion ever took place in baseball.
Scott Boras is not doing this for the first time. "We'd like a player option to void the contract in year four." ... "Sure, Scott, we can do that. Now how about $1 a year for three years and then $100M in year four. And you decide whether to stay here."
Ummmmmmm....
You... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/03/12
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=== Input/Output, Dept. ===
This week, an ML executive was chatting about the state of the 2011-12 winter market. Somebody asked the exec about a minor Boras client who is, this winter, getting disappointing offers. "Is it that this player isn't as good as we thought he was?"
The exec kind of laughed. "Finding homes for marginal players has NEVER been Scott's strong suit," the man said. "Scott does one thing well: he maximizes the returns on the super-hot commodities. At that, he is brilliant."
And a light came on.
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=== Deconstructing Scott ===
The simplistic view of... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/03/12
4 Comments
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ARod dumped Boras for endorsement purposes
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=== Epiphany, Dept. ===
And we'd have re-titled it with one word-slot change and one punctuation change, "Scott Boras IS Hurting Prince Fielder!," except for one thing: Prince Fielder hasn't yet signed a disappointing contract.
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=== Prince Fielder ===
Jack Zduriencik has been kind enough to avoid calling Prince a fat man. (Granted, I imagine this might be good business, too...)
But it is one thing for Meryl Streep to blush and say, aw shucks, I'm just happy to be here. It's another thing for Streep to protest... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/03/12
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Word around the 'net is that Scott Boras, attempting to save face, is running the Opt-Out swing pass. I don't know if that is the case, but if it is, then you have a situation that is nauseating even by the toilet-bowly standards of Scott Boras.
Last week, ML execs negotiated in the press. Hey, Scott, what about 3-to-5 years and then hit the market again. When we know whether Prince is going to be under 350. Call it the William "Refigerator" Perry Safety Valve.
Scott huffed, in the press. "That's delusional. We are about win-win scenarios and you guys are about... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/01/12
42 Comments
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Q. Baseball Prospectus, in this article, interprets Iwakuma as being an 89-mph guy, with 4 lame pitches, but a forkball that comes up to average ML quality. True?
A. WAY off the mark.
In the F/X Interpretation Apple Bowl, I'll take SSI over BP, thanks. In part because SSI has a video footage coordinator on defense.
But if it's ML scouting you want, here is Orel Hershiser judging Iwakuma's pitches. Orel flatly states that Iwakuma "could play in the majors in a heartbeat" and is enthused about all of Iwakuma's tools:
Hisashi Iwakuma is a complete pitcher. He doesn'... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/01/12
10 Comments
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Q. Okay, the #1, the fastball.
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A. At the 0:21 mark on this video, he takes a Cuban hitter up the ladder and you can see the excellent life on the pitch.
After the shoulder problems in early 2011, Iwakuma was clocked 89-92 later in the year. David Cone had this happen, constant shoulder problems off-and-on, pitched through the pain the last eight years of his career. Am sure that MLB teams are not worried about the shoulder and velo, and I certainly wouldn't be, not based on Cone and similar pitchers.
At the 1:00 mark on the vid, you can see two 90-mph, pound-the-knees... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/01/12
9 Comments
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Q. Okay -- a located 90 fastball, two breaking pitches one left and one right, and a wipeout forkball. Who is like that in the majors?
A. Also known as the Mike Mussina / David Cone type family. Precious few pitchers execute 4+ pitches effectively. Precious fewer do it while using a forkball.
Here is the complete list of the ten ML pitchers who, at any time during 2009-11, threw 10% forkballs or more (Iwakuma throws 20%). As you can see, there are varying degrees of competence within any given family ...
SP
% forks, splits
Halladay
16%
Penny
14%
Kuroda
14%
Pelfrey... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/01/12
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Q. You make him sound better than Darvish.
A. I don't look at it that way, but some Japanese fans think that he is. Here's an exchange from MLB Trade Rumors ... go down to where Snowmen10 begins. This is from just a week ago:
I think Iwakuma will have a better success than a lot of Japanese pitchers probably including Darvish for the first couple years. Unlike Darvish and Dice-K, Iwakuma is totally not afraid of letting his 2 seamer (shuuto) got hit by the hitter and work out as a ground ball. He also challenge batter with his breaking ball to go into the strike zone,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/01/12
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Q. Upside for Iwakuma?
A. It's hard for me to visualize Iwakuma making the All-Star team. Suppose he fans 6.0 men per game, mostly on swinging forkballs and on called FB's and sliders. That's great, but Tim Hudson doesn't get Cy Young votes.
Well, I take it back. Iwakuma's two offspeed pitches -- 80 slider, 83 forkball -- are tailor-made to exploit MLB arrogance and over-aggressiveness. Mussina fanned 7 men a game even after he lost his stuff.
The UP scenario resides in MLB batters getting overly frustrated with the soft stuff, and Iwakuma getting into their heads. I... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/01/12
6 Comments
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Q. If the M's got Fielder as well as Iwakuma, does SSI count that as a double offseason?
A. Without a doubt. This is a $12M pitcher.
Hey, where baseball is going now that the CBA's in place, what is $12M? Is that 2.5 WAR or is it 2.0 WAR? Iwakuma could easily earn $20M in Safeco, as Doug Fister was doing last year.
You're talking a Garza, Gio type impact probably ... Give or take the Taijuan, Hultzen and Paxton that WSN coughed up for Gio.
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Q. Bottom line?
A. The balm that salves our Doug Fister heartbreak. :- ) Hey, you don't suppose they had their eye on Iwakuma... Read More