September 2012
Galileo Gives Two Thumbs Way Up
Posted by jemanji on 09/30/12
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Q. How did he walk four guys? He only had eight walks this year, with 1.3 BB's per nine innings.
A. Two things, one minor one major. The minor thing, he looked a bit fatigued to me, a bit flat.
The F/X has Dr. D's back on this one. His velocity was off, only 92.1 MPH average on the fastball, and the scatterchart has his command way off. On this Brooks Baseball strike zone grid, notice that the yellow changeups are not nicely grouped just below the knees as they often are. To those who've been paying close attention, the yellows will appear shockingly sloppy... Read More
So he turned out to be Doug Fister, pretty much
Posted by jemanji on 09/30/12
8 Comments
Q. Where is he going into the offseason?
A. Erasmo Ramirez, if he qualified, would rank in the AL's top 10 for ERA, FIP, and xFIP. That's because few pitchers fan 7 men per game and walk 2, not unless they're giving in like Colby Lewis does, and coughing up a ton of homers. If you've been watching a ballgame now and then, you're not encumbered by the hackneyed "small sample size" cliche here. Erasmo does not, and will not, walk batters, end of story. And he's got dangerous weapons. He can and does finish off 2-strike counts - against anybody.
Let's call this the 7K, 2BB template. ... Read More
M's catching situation rests on a hair-fine judgment
Posted by jemanji on 09/29/12
22 Comments
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=== Linkage ===
Excellent article at Prospect Insider that analyzes the M's catching situation next year. For many baseball purists, the position runs: Jaso is a fringe defensive catcher, Montero not a very serious catcher, Zunino not a factor for 2013 -- ergo, the M's need some glove-first catcher to play 3+ games per week in 2013.
Using process of elimination, he gives Gerald Laird, Jose Molina and the trade market as the reasonable possibilities. The article is worth the price of admission for the short-list, and disposal thereof, alone.
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=== 2013 Options ===
SSI would take this... Read More
ROY season, 262-hit season, two others ... then this one
Posted by jemanji on 09/29/12
10 Comments
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Q. What if I want to argue that 220 plate appearances in NYY is a small sample size?
A. Then Dr. D would recommend that you take a stats class and learn what a sample is.
;- ) and then he would have a question for you: "Suppose that Ichiro had flopped in NYY, batting .199. Would you have called that a small sample, or would you say yeah, that's what I thought?"
Can't have it both ways. He left town. If he could have failed, he could have succeeded. Man up. His performance in New York matches the best ones of his career.
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Q. Okay, I would have declared victory if he had hit .242 as... Read More
Evolving into a weird kind of B.J. Upton comp
Posted by jemanji on 09/28/12
6 Comments
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Q. How does his swing look?
A. Like his preferred mechanics are starting to become a habit. An NCAA point guard, later a coach, once told me that if you overhaul your shot motion correctly, you won't be able to remember how you did it previously. And that your shot wasn't fixed until the old motion had vanished forever, even in your memory.
I don't remember the last time I saw Saunders hook his "ki" around the corner toward 1B. He seems to be reflexively driving his center of gravity back up the middle, finishing the swing at the 1B line, and this includes panic/defensive swings. ...... Read More
He's stopped fearing you.
Posted by jemanji on 09/26/12
2 Comments
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Right before he unloaded a 415-foot home run off C.J. Wilson on Wednesday night, Justin Smoak sunk into his zone withOUT his face sinking into its usual exaggerated grimace:
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And right after he made contact, Smoak leaned over into an easy glide withOUT digging in his back foot and scampering madly down the 1B line:
orm of snarl, "warning" a threatening predator to back away. Neither are conducive to the kind of relaxed focus that allows a batter to read a pitch.
In the image above, Smoak prepares to hit against C.J. Wilson and ... He's. Not.... Read More
goes from Jr's front side leverage to Thome's back side muscle
Posted by jemanji on 09/25/12
8 Comments
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Q. The dude is .360 / .440 / .640 in September, with as many BB's as K's, and tonight Greinke fans 13 Mariners while Smoak hits two homers. He looks a lot different.
A. After one game cyber-cross-checkin', I opined that it wasn't primarily the swing that had him on a hot roll -- he was seeing the ball differently and launching the bat differently.
After two games, can I get a do-over? The two-hand swing has him on top of the ball and this seems to be adding to the 'attack' factor in his bat launch.
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Q. Why would a lefty hitter use more or less of his left hand in the swing?
A. Ideally... Read More
Some guys push a swing, and some pull a swing.
Posted by jemanji on 09/25/12
2 Comments
Q. Why do you say, like Thome?
A. It's a bludgeoning-style swing. Here, look at this kludgy, muscle-heavy torque:
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Or look at the start of this Smoak video and compare this Jim Thome swing.
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Q. What would this Junior-to-Thome swing change produce, in theory? In this specific case?
A. What it has produced, for sure, is to put Smoak on top of the ball more. Here, grok these September batted ball splits. But we're not going by numbers. You can see at a glance that his two-handed King Arthur Broadsword swing has him... Read More
Last Perfect Human, epitaph
Posted by jemanji on 09/25/12
5 Comments
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We axed Counselor Mojo how he would mediate the John Olerud Tree-Gate Scandal - not just in terms of the letter of the law, but in terms of what's fair and what's Do Unto Others. His brilliant analysis runs,
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Olerud has a few things working against him in the tree dispute:
1. The tree was there when he built the house. Whatever arrangements he made for his view should have been made before he built the house or bought the lot.
2. Trees, though common, are priceless. If you chop one down that you particularly like, you will never get another one exactly like it. You are dealing... Read More
Was it too much of a [bat-first] good thing?
Posted by jemanji on 09/25/12
3 Comments
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At BJOL, John Dewan revists the Tigers' super-aggressive plan to move Miguel Cabrera to 3B:
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The White Sox hold a two-game lead over the Tigers today in the race for the AL Central Division title. One of the key reasons the Sox are on top is defense. Not because theirs is so good, but because the Tigers’ is so bad. Detroit has the worst defense in the American League. Compared to the average team, they have lost 39 runs on defense. The White Sox’s defense has saved five runs, which makes them an average defense.
That's a difference of 44 runs, a difference of four games in... Read More
The Human Highway Stripe broaches the topic of embarrassment
Posted by jemanji on 09/24/12
9 Comments
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Out of the Green Bay locker room* on Monday Night:
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“13th man beat us tonight.” — Green Bay tight end Tom Crabtree.
“Got (robbed) by the refs.. Embarrassing. Thanks nfl” — Green Bay offensive lineman T.J. Lang.
"Any player/coach in Seattle that really thinks they won that game has zero integrity as a man and should be embarrassed." - Lang
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Any player has a right to be outraged about a game-deciding call. We're all good there.
What I have a problem with, is Lang not allowing that he had just gone through a bitterly-fought war. Wars... Read More
Is the ref'ing as bad as the media wants it to be?
Posted by jemanji on 09/24/12
13 Comments
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Q. Was the TD call clearly wrong? If so, was it gross incompetence?
A. I'd compare it to a runner being out by about a foot sliding into 3B, and being called safe, because the tag was high on the body and it was a little difficult to see.
In real time you didn't hear a lot of people saying it was an obvious call. In real time, it kind of looked like, four hands on the ball, the defender's hands more firmly, but the receiver's two hands also on the ball ... huh, tie goes to the offense.
Then somebody pointed out hey, the ball was on the defender's chest. They went, hey, that's right! ... Read More
Like it? Love it? Gotta Have It?
Posted by jemanji on 09/23/12
Q. What is this Big Idea, the keeping the top hand on the bat?
A. I'm old enough to remember the firestorm of Charlie Lau debates... Lau taught George Brett, Frank "Big Hurt" Thomas, etc. that they'd have more power releasing the top hand and that turned out to be correct.
Ken Griffey Jr. had the most beautiful top-hand release you could even imagine. Edgar released the top hand. ARod fashioned a logo out of it.... You probably do get more power with the longer followthru.
We're back to that 10 o'clock to 2 o'clock pitch shot in golf. Better control. "Casting" the barrel at the... Read More
Triangulation, dept.
Posted by jemanji on 09/23/12
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Q. Smoak has an OPS up 'round 1.000 in September and he has the 5:7 EYE, the improved StrSw% rates, and every other number to back it up. But what does the scouting eye say?
A. :: blinks :: He suddenly realizes that he hadn't watched a Smoak at-bat since the callup ...
Ran off to eyeball Mr. E=M2Cliff Lee on the DVR. Whaaaaaaa? Differn't player here. And when did he start keeping the top hand on the bat, by the way? Did he hit the long homers with that swing? ... sho' nuff ...
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Q. Well, so is it the swing or what?
A. The swing isn't really the difference. Well, it's a root cause... Read More
Poooor Dr. D tries to make sense of a befuddling world.
Posted by jemanji on 09/23/12
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Q. Smoak has an OPS up 'round 1.000 in September and he has the 5:7 EYE, the improved StrSw% rates, and every other number to back it up. But what does the scouting eye say?
A. :: blinks :: He suddenly realizes that he hadn't watched a Smoak at-bat since the callup ...
Ran off to eyeball Mr. E=M2Cliff Lee on the DVR. Whaaaaaaa? Differn't player here. And when did he start keeping the top hand on the bat, by the way? Did he hit the long homers with that swing? ... sho' nuff ...
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Q. Well, so is it the swing or what?
A. The swing isn't really the difference. Well, it's a root cause... Read More
Do what with him?
Posted by jemanji on 09/23/12
6 Comments
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"I believe in paying my dues, in watching the kids figure things out. It makes winning more fun." - Bill James
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Q. Leaving him where?
A. Well, so if this interpretation be true ... he's got his head together now, he's got talent, he's got power, he's playing his game ... but he just hasn't seen enough pitches yet in his career.
This would mean that he's in a position to learn much more quickly. You don't learn much at all when you're in full-on retreat mode. If you're losing 15-1 to somebody at racquetball, and totally humiliated in front of your boss or girlfriend, are you getting... Read More
... baseball's Dalai Lama cherrypicks the low hanging fruit :- )
Posted by jemanji on 09/20/12
2 Comments
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At BJOL, Les Lein axed an innocuous question:
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In the manager's book you wrote about how Earl Weaver had great pitcher durability. You said you knew what a "Baltimore draft" is. What is a Baltimore draft? I remember Tom Boswell writing that a promising pitcher should stay in the minors an extra year, then spend his rookie year in long relief. Is that a Baltimore draft?
Asked by: LesLein
Answered: 9/18/2012
A Baltimore Draft was a pitcher, usually a left-hander, who didn't have great stuff, didn't light up the radar guns and didn't have a killer... Read More
Medlen, Erasmo, and ... one other M comprise the 3 in a group
Posted by jemanji on 09/20/12
3 Comments
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Von Fricke sez,
[Erasmo] pitches a lot like Medlen in my eyes. Works off his change and throws to all sides of the plate. Thing is, Medlan tops out at 91, ERam "works" at 93-94 at least. He could be special.
Working off the changeup. Working off the changeup. ::taps chin::
From the left side, it's not too hard to find pitchers who "work off their changeups" as you aptly put it ... one is currently #2 in the M's rotation right now. Along with Cole Hamels, Jamie Moyer, Johan Santana, etc. Template works great from the left side.
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From the right side, the approach is... Read More
Young GM learns the bald GM will cough up Erasmo
Posted by jemanji on 09/20/12
29 Comments
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Pineda wasn't dealt until *after* the standout rookie season. The M's (and Safeco) have mostly had little trouble getting AAA pitchers over the hump to be successful Major Leaguers. This is a tremendous burden for other teams, often taking multiple seasons and hundreds of mediocre innings. I'm not sure we can get Montero if we're trying to deal Pineda without the Major League track record. *IF* we deal any of the Big 3, it should be after Major League success so we can get maximum return. - Justin
Every time there's a Justin sighting, I get to parlay a high-traffic article out of it. We'... Read More
Has anyone noticed what a freakish year he's having in Japan?
Posted by Spectator on 09/20/12
4 Comments
I've been going back through old minor league seasons as I put together the roll-out of all the minor-league statistical analysis over at Stalk (which I begin today, by the way), and there was really only one name that kept coming up as a guy who shouldn't have been a bust, but was. And that was Wladimir Balentien.
Wlad and Adam Jones came up together. Wlad is a year older. Based on their minor league stats, is there much reason to think that Jones should be an MLB star and Wlad a nobody? No, not at all. Besides the fact that Jones is a center fielder, Wlad put up stellar minor-league... Read More
Is Erasmo Ramirez nearing the Pineda/Seager Best Bet HOF?
Posted by jemanji on 09/18/12
18 Comments
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=== The Stats ===
Run to Fangraphs and check out the run value on Erasmo's changeup. You'll find +2.55 on the year, which is Erikkkk-curve magnitude. Okay, great. You'll pardon us for chuckling that a saberdude would note, "SSS Alert" and ... then what?
Only by getting the two together, sabermetrics and tools scouting, can we get a decent triangulation on what might happen next. Stats are backwards-looking by their very nature. What is happening, what has happened, sabe da man. As to what hasn't happened yet ... often sabe don' got a clue. Will the league adjust to Erasmo's changeup... Read More
Turns the corner by --- > slowing and smoothing the takeaway
Posted by jemanji on 09/17/12
Clicked on the game in the 8th and got ready to switch it off again ... whoa, hope that wasn't Erasmo starting tonight, though? "If you just joined us, Hector Noesi gave up seven runs in an inning and a third tonight..." Whew. Then they cut to the bullpen. Clayface warming up. Now we're talking in!
Pryor opened the ninth. He drew the front leg up in the weird way that he does, nice and slow ... shoulders relaxed. He brought the hand into the backstroke with deliberateness. He smoothly reached back, started forward ... WHOOOM, 96 miles an hour, right on the black, fouled back. ... Read More
Thirteen with another provocative idea
Posted by jemanji on 09/17/12
34 Comments
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Thirteen's inventive commentary has been a pleasure to read. If you missed his Justin Smoak Thumbs Up, er Down, er Cracked fanpost at LL, it's an eyebrow-raising read. Here he comes again with a trade idea. Now, 94.3% of trade riffs are throwaway, but on the other hand don't be too quick to blow them off. I mean, we sit here going, "this winter we need a deal." But give it up for the guys who bring something specific.
Thirteen wants to target Baseball America's player of the year:
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SP Danny Hultzen and SS Brad Miller to Kansas City for OF Wil Myers. The Royals, let... Read More
How much to downgrade them? Zero. With a capital Z.
Posted by jemanji on 09/17/12
2 Comments
From BJOL today:
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Hey Bill, is there a way to tell how a minor leaguer will do when he is called up?
Asked by: jdubovis
Answered: 9/17/2012
Minor league batting stats predict major league batting stats with the same reliability that past major league batting stats predict future major league batting stats.
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There have been very fine articles around the block, to the effect of "Let Danny Hultzen's AAA season be a lesson to us. Prospects aren't as much a sure thing as we sometimes come to believe." Which is definitely the case, if we got caught up in... Read More
Billy Beane with FOUR young starters going nutzoid
Posted by jemanji on 09/17/12
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Also at BJOL, and moshing off the previous question with a hip bruise, is ...
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We're loving the pennant race out here in Oakland. By my rough count 650 of the A's 1303 innings pitched so far have been by rookie pitchers, almost exactly half. Is that a very unusual ratio for a successful team?
Asked by: OwenH
Answered: 9/17/2012
It is, yes. I don't THINK any championship team has ever had 50% of its innings pitched by rookies. There have been teams that won around 90 games with heavily rookinized pitching staffs. Disturbed by the fact that my word... Read More
John Madden used to talk about "grass teams"
Posted by jemanji on 09/16/12
1 Comments
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Bill James divided baseball into six historical eras. The era that existed before the current era, 1969-1992 or so, he called the "Artificial Turf" era.
With everything available to define an era, he went with the playing surface. James' beloved 1980's Royals were an epic turf team, meaning one that exploited speed and finesse. In Weaver On Strategy, Earl lamented the way his big, powerful Orioles got embarrassed every time they went to Kansas City. "They played way back on us, getting to lots of extra ground balls. But if we tried that, it wouldn't work, because of the Orioles'... Read More
Takes a Yank to ask a naive question.
Posted by jemanji on 09/16/12
2 Comments
Cesc Fabregas is my favorite player of all time, by a long way. And having watched Santi Cazorla land in the English Premier League as instantly its best player,* watching Fab struggle for playing time in the Spanish League, I wonder if Barcelona knows something we don't. Is Cesc overrated?
Nobody in the world has Fabregas' eye for a through ball. At Arsenal he was an assist machine and had 15 goals his last healthy season there. But he's also got negatives that have been glossed over, especially by me. He doesn't help much when the other side has the ball, his offensive energy other... Read More
Time to turn that moosh into muscle.
Posted by jemanji on 09/16/12
22 Comments
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Just a token nod to the blue and teal so's Matt doesn't file litigation over finding more sophisticated sports onsite :- )
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Justin Smoak scored and drove in the M's only run, on a 426-foot shot off a 17-win pitcher who otherwise fired a shutout. ESPN's home run tracker gives us the trend on the force with which Smoak has hit his 2012 home runs. The most recent dingers are at the top of the chart.
The tags are No Doubt, Plenty (normal HR), or Just Enough. You could project a hitter's next HR year off clustering of No Doubters or Just Enoughs. As we recall, Adrian Beltre hit a ton of... Read More
Mumbo-jumbo dept.
Posted by jemanji on 09/15/12
2 Comments
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Mo'Dawg axs, does Ki mean belt buckle in aikido? No way to tell whether he was pulling Dr. D's leg, but hey, it's an easy URL ...
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Ki in Japan, Qi or Chi in China, is an Asian (not aiki) concept that presumes your life force emanates from your body like electrical fields (in fact) do from your brain. I'm highly dubious about the metaphysics, at least in the form usually stated, but 1 billion good, decent people (and their doctors) may be on to some thing.
Usually "Ki" is taken to be seated in the hara, the center of gravity, a couple of inches below your belly... Read More
DJ has blown all the right whistles... 4-for-5, anyway
Posted by jemanji on 09/14/12
3 Comments
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The Nationals are one of the prettiest Cinderella teams in recent years. Davey Johnson is one of my favorite managers of all time. And I hadn't connected the two dots in any way, until this at BJOL:
Bill, in the 80s you wrote that Billy Martin had a consistent record of improving every team he joined; with the downside that his pitchers got used up and their careers suffered subsequently. Since then, Dave Johnson has had a comparable record of sudden improvements. Does he also have a frequent history of pitchers coming apart after working hard for him?
Asked by: Trailbzr
Answered: 9/11... Read More
M's fans fairly easy to please at this point
Posted by jemanji on 09/14/12
1 Comments
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Dr. D resumed watching the Mariners a week or so ago, resumed watching from his chair placed at eight inches' distance from the monitor, as it were. Last few games he remembered to check Saunders' mechanics. Huh! Haven't noticed a single swing, this week, in which he pulled the front hip.
We've discussed before, but for those just joining us: Saunders is a "long-lever" athlete, a giraffe type. He gets plenty of torque with a cut-down swing. If he tries to get those giraffe arms going in the same arc as Kyle Seager's, he's late to the ball. He needs to trust his natural leverage and... Read More
Or is it just stick to what you do best ... ?
Posted by jemanji on 09/14/12
1 Comments
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A little philosophical birdwalk laid out by The Counselor.
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Q by Mojo: Maybe this is common knowledge, or maybe it is just absurd, but are changeups the most effective off-speed pitch?
I've watched a whole summer of Vargas and now Ramirez embarrass hitters with a change that dives into the dirt. It seems that curves and sliders often get botched, hanged and then hit for extra bases, but the changeup rarely goes wrong and seems just as effective when it goes right. Maybe the curve and slider are more difficult to throw and more unreliable because they rely heavily on a hard spin for the... Read More
Iwakuma. Slipping around in the rain. vs. Texas.
Posted by jemanji on 09/14/12
4 Comments
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Q. Iwakuma had his "B game" working?
A. How doth he limp tonight? Let us count the ways:
Slider was flat, staying up, 4" less sink than usual, you could look it up
Shuuto had little bite, staying up, 2" less sink
Fastball was down about 1.0, 1.5 MPH
Command wasn't great, especially early, was behind in the count
So his line was 5.1 innings, 7 hits, 2 runs, 1:4 CTL ratio - on the face of it quite good against the Rangers in Texas, but he could have given up four runs. He gave up two solo shots and scattered the other five hits. (On the other hand, one of the HR's was a cheap HR that was... Read More
Metaphorically speaking. - Not
Posted by jemanji on 09/14/12
3 Comments
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"Off the charts" seems to be a recent idiom. Around the 1970's or 1980's, execs at Atari, Apple, and Yankee Stadium would talk about their profits. "You're not going to believe our profits. Off the chart again this quarter."
Before too long ... "Man, I had a steak at Ruth's Chris that was off the charts." "You gotta check this new sports blog. Dr. D's infotainment is off the charts." "The dehydrated onions on my Quarter Pounder were off the charts." It kind of lost its force.
"Off the charts" is so much a metaphor that we're now introducing a new concept by --- > using a chart on... Read More
We're talking BIG time upside.
Posted by jemanji on 09/13/12
8 Comments
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Q. Okay, first up, how was the umping THIS time?
A. The umps were up to their old tricks as Carter got loose. He came into the game, threw strike one. Then ....
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...... on pitch two, Capps blazed a thunderous sidearm 99 MPH fastball .... wayyyyyyy wide of the hitting area. The ump's eyes got real big. So, next pitch, Capps launched a hand grenade onto the outside black ... 2" outside, ump never considered a strike. Pitch four, Capps threw a simple, obvious strike... eeyyuuup, ball three. 3-and-1 count to Kelly Johnson.
Johnson later got a single on a 3-2... Read More
Check the HR's with Safeco overlaid
Posted by jemanji on 09/13/12
6 Comments
Q. The arguments against giving Josh Hamilton a $200M Prince Fielder type contract are ...
A. ... Too obvious to waste time typing out. If you're going to play two people at once, like Steve Martin's good cop bad cop in Pink Panther, you might at least ask questions that some people haven't thought of the answer to....
Suffice it to say that in rotisserie baseball, good owners split the difference on guys like Hamilton. In his MVP year he was worth $39 in 5x5. So you pay $25 for him. That's the right thing to do.
Life mirrors art. You pay 2/3 of what you'd pay for a healthy Josh... Read More
Crunch on Felix' fall from grace
Posted by jemanji on 09/13/12
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... His fall from grace, or his fall from other-dimensional status, at least...
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Q: So the only sanctuary for my sanity right now is that Felix must be tipping his pitches.
Q: Yeah, what's up with Felix getting knocked around three starts in a row?
A. What's up is that Felix' Rock 'n Roll' Fantasy got him overconfident and he began to think of himself as bulletproof. Point of order: after two innings tonight he'd thrown 23 strikes and 6 balls. Here's his strike zone plot.
Bill Krueger, who is a very informative pitching analyst, one with more overall light bulbs on than you or I,... Read More
Fourteen years old is middle-aged for a sports stadium.
Posted by jemanji on 09/13/12
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Bat571 sez,
Jemanji - How about a thread on modifying Safeco for next year - would love to hear other's suggestions. For me, I'd like to see the Mariner's bullpen turned slightly inward (expanding the 'Pen), reducing the LF gap, lining it up with dead center at 400' instead of 405'. Put a 4' buffer of rhododendrens at the top of the fence (Guti's Garden?) to keep drunks from leaning out over the field in the area past the bullpen. Then engineer a sail system (maybe not ready for next year) to reduce the marine cross-flow. Then close the roof on cool marine-weather nights. What do others... Read More
Added 9-10 runs per year on the bases?
Posted by jemanji on 09/13/12
1 Comments
John Dewan, in the public area at BJOL, writes
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The Bill James Handbook 2013, which will release on November 1, will include a new section on career baserunning. A baserunning gain is the total of all types of extra baserunning advances minus the penalty for baserunning outs against expectations, including both stolen bases and all other baserunning situations. Among active players with a minimum of 1,000 games played, Ichiro Suzuki leads the way with +371 Net Gain, which is the cumulative total of all gains minus penalties in his career. As a frame of... Read More
Can You Win Your Next Pennant With Tom Wilhelmsen, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 09/12/12
5 Comments
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=== 35,000 People Not In On the Joke, Dept. ===
Could somebody please tell me, for the love of all that is ESPN and vicariously warrior-like, what is supposed to be intimidating about a 5'2" leprechaun with no magical powers? How does a stadium full of people buy into the snarls of 50-something men who weigh 104 pounds? Could somebody please put Eric Thames into a 4-on-1 cage match with Angus Young, Axl Rose, Marilyn Manson and Alice Cooper? And then, after Thames has his 90 seconds, let them stomp onto their stages menacingly with our complete blessing?
Above, contrast (a) Young's... Read More
Whups Toronto's keisters with his "B" game
Posted by jemanji on 09/11/12
3 Comments
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Q. Erasmo had his B game going? Why do you say?
A. Dead legs or something; he was yaaaaaannnkkkking his head and lead shoulder around, muscling the fastball and he jerked the fastball way left on at least eight occasions. It actually cost him velocity. They didn't have F/X for some reason, but on the pitches he yanked, his velo was down to 92 or so.
This cost him $9,000 worth of command. He centered so many fastballs, the Blue Jays begged for one on the black. It was ridick, dude.
He also threw a crazy number of strikes, crazy way too many ... at one point he had 21 strikes and 3... Read More
Moved several yards forward, Sept. 8
Posted by jemanji on 09/11/12
2 Comments
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Q. Moved forward, hunh. Like what.
A. Right off the bat, his body language had gone Pimsleur Method. He came out and grabbed the ball, went into his wind with no clowning around, he had a gorgeous little hitch at the top like, the grin that Brendan Fraser had on the last pitch of The Scout. Sure enough, come to find out that his pace was 20% faster.
If you missed the game, Capps threw 2.1 innings with 2 hits, 0 runs, 1 walk, 4 strikeouts and Green Lantern His Ownself couldn't have gotten the yellow-tinted A's out this week. You'll wait a loooong time to find a club swinging the bats... Read More
You've heard "comfortable at-bat"? Not that.
Posted by jemanji on 09/11/12
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Q. Looks like there was no F/X data on Tuesday. What did Pryor do?
A. Wedge brought him in to face one guy, the RH shortstop Escobar, a hitter that Pryor would hope to overmatch. He did: 90 MPH slider froze him for an 0-1 count. 96 MPH fastball, angling down to the knees, garbage swing and miss. 98 MPH fastball, angling down below the knees, garbage swing, inning over.
The fastball is legitimately overwhelming: for velocity alone it's about 10th among relievers. But he also hides it like George blinkin' Sherrill and the angle is wicked.
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Q. To what extent is Pyror a work in... Read More
Spectator recapping minors playoffs nightly
Posted by jemanji on 09/11/12
... and the Stalk has eighty-nine kinds of source material to work with, being as the M's bushes are dominating all levels of baseball Stateside and international. If Pryor, Capps and Erasmo have piqued your thirst for good news about M's kiddies, crash Spec's place. As colorful as Disneyland and twice the fun. If you haven't been following this week, his index page makes it easy to start with (say) Sept. 4th and move forward in time from there.
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The "Zuumballs" continue to fly fast and furious, with three Zunino playoff homers reminding Dr. D of his boyhood days rooting for... Read More
Selig may force the Nats to pitch Strasburg?
Posted by jemanji on 09/11/12
6 Comments
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Q. What could happen if Stephen Strasburg is overused in 2012?
A. He could get injured (again) or become ineffective in future seasons.
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Q. What could happen if Stephen Strasburg is shut down, due to false assumptions about innings and overuse?
A. The Nationals could throw away a World Series championship and ruin one of the most exciting surprise seasons in recent memory. Their players, who have worked hard for a chance to win in the postseason, could see that piddled away ... voluntarily.
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Q. Is there any precedent for this situation?
A. I'm aware of no previous season in which a... Read More
Turrrrrrrible
Posted by jemanji on 09/08/12
15 Comments
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Moe sez,
Doc,
You'll remember that when I was in my "anybody but Smoak" stage (Wait! I'm still in that!) earlier this year, when Carp was dinged, I said lets give the job to Liddi or Cat or Jimenez, anybody but "Little Timber" Smoak.
Jimenez smashed some in AAA, let's roll him out there for a while and see what we have.
And can we just give up on Smoak this year? ...Oh wait, I forgot that Smoak's a changed guy after his Tacoma trip. Let's see, his .203-.291-.290 over the last 28 days, and his 2nd half split of .161-.246-.268 sure proves that. Maybe it's his .196-.258-.312 splt vL that we... Read More
They say the dude can rake
Posted by jemanji on 09/07/12
1 Comments
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Q. Wow! His first ML start after twelve years in the minors, four national Vote For Luis campaigns to date, and one phone call about a possible KFC endorsement. How did he look?
A. Like a big league hitter.
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Q. Why has he NEVER been in the bigs?
A. He was asked this question before the game. He laughed heartily. My weight, man. I go 300 and it doesn't look too good. It especially doesn't look too good for an athlete, a pro athlete, man. So my weight has always been a wall blocking my career.
This got Dr. D -- who himself could definitely lose a pound or thirty -- to thinking... Read More
Came back from AAA looking like a beast
Posted by jemanji on 09/07/12
3 Comments
Q. Is Erasmo in the category "Player you can win your next pennant with?"
A. SSI liked Erasmo Ramirez quite well yesterday. It likes him considerably better today, I'll tell ya that.
G-Money gave a watch bulletin on Erasmo in fall of 2011, and that despite watching Erasmo get shelled. Gotta give it up for a cyber-scout who zigs against the zag of nine earnies. Nothin' we like better than to hear a report that says "cut him" after a shutout, or a report that says "promote him" after a 3rd-inning K.O.
Here's SSI's three-part POTD from February 2012. Was he Doug Fister, amigos axed? Dunno... Read More
You be the judge.
Posted by jemanji on 09/06/12
9 Comments
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The Baltimore Orioles have scored fewer runs than they have allowed - a fair bit fewer, in fact. They've scored 585 and allowed 606; their run differential is worse than the Seattle Mariners' is. However, their won-loss record is 76-60 and if the season ended today, the Orioles would be in the playoffs, fighting for the hardware.
At Bill James Online, one of the feature writers (Dave Fleming - no, not that Dave Fleming, M's fans) looks at this situation. He analyzes all historical teams that are way, wayyyyy better than their run differential and finds something interesting: it may not... Read More
Well, that's what he sounded like, anyway
Posted by jemanji on 09/05/12
5 Comments
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From Bill James Online a few days ago:
Strange stats. From 7/23/12 when Ichiro Suzuki went to the Yankees, until 8/31/12, the Yankees played .500 ball. 18 and 18. During that same span the Mariners went 22-14. With Ichiro, they were 42-55, 13 games under .500. Without him they're 8 games over .500. Is that too small a sample, or is there something there?
Asked by: mauimike
Answered: 9/2/2012
The chance that a .485 team would go 22-14 or better in a stretch of 36 games is 9%, meaning that every team of the calibre of the Mariners would probably have a stretch like that at some point. ... Read More
BABIP is .289 in New York
Posted by jemanji on 09/05/12
1 Comments
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Q. Is Ichiro still hitting in New York?
A. The last two weeks have slowed down quite a bit for him; he's hitting around .200 with only one extra-base hit.
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Q. Is he playing with more energy?
A. He is, yes. His swings at pitches outside the zone are way down in New York. His contact on pitches outside the zone (OOZ) are also down, leading to less cheap contact. His SLG is way up. His batting EYE is way down.
In other words, it's a demonstrable fact that he is being more selective since he left the Mariners, and is letting the bat fly when he gets his pitch. He hit a couple of early... Read More
Well, maybe not fully ....
Posted by jemanji on 09/02/12
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Q. Where did this "#2 Starter" thing come from?
A. At the Bakery, they've not been at all quick to buy in on Mr. WBC-san. But dig the tone of this article, captured neatly at the moment on which the curtain comes down.
Geoffy, an ex-athlete himself who has been standing on ground zero for a year or twenty, has a hair-fine feel for the ebb and flow of battle. He groks the fact that Iwakuma's fastball becomes a pivot point and his articles generally reflect, or at least show an awareness of, what the professionals are seeing.
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Q. Give me a feel for why the raves?
A. One time some local... Read More
There are a few pitchers who have worse "B Games"
Posted by jemanji on 09/02/12
15 Comments
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Q. Okay, what is the nature of Iwakuma's A game and B game? How good is he on either day?
A. The Times puts its finger on the fact that a "lively" Iwakuma gets hop on his fastball. On this chart, from yesterday, notice the fastball movement in the 5-10" rise bandwidth. Compare this one from Minnesota, in which the fastball stays down.
Personally would advise caution against overselling the difference. His fastball averaged 90.19 MPH against the Angels and against the Twins it was... wait for it... 90.19 MPH. Four inches of rise ain't the difference between a #2 starter and a roster... Read More
Neither one is to be trifled with.
Posted by jemanji on 09/02/12
1 Comments
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Q. The fastball LOOKED a lot better today. How could it be 90.19 MPH against the Angels and also 90.19 MPH against the Twins? Wedge said he had something extra at the end.
A. It was the same velocity, but ... sho' nuff, we cue'd up the tape and blamed if it didn't look like he was throwing 2 MPH faster. With late life.
The F/X doesn't lie... 90.19 and 90.19. What's going on? ::taps chin::
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There it is. The RPM is higher against the Angels, and therefore the rise -- the "hop" -- is higher.
And why would the hop be higher? Iwakuma-san was doing two things: (1)... Read More
My man Joe Namath invented the "joker" TE. Seriously.
Posted by jemanji on 09/01/12
12 Comments
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At Football Outsiders, their piece on "The Rise Of the Tight End" is informative and entertaining. You might say it's In Fo Taining! Dr. D's coefficient of confidence, as it pertains to your reading pleas-uh, is 0.94. Have a look.
For anybody wanting to drink it through a straw, we'll run their article through the juicer for you. Okay, the main light bulbs are ... hold it. Can you have "light bulbs" as it pertains to a sport so much less intellectual than baseball? Well, license plates have light bulbs. Okay. Take out your #2 pencil and a clean piece of paper. Tight ends are on the... Read More