February 2013
Break up da Marinas
Posted by jemanji on 02/28/13
13 Comments
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HOT SEAT: Does it mean anything that the M's have won six in a row?
DR. D, WORD-ASSOCIATION SPEED: It doesn't mean anything in this sense. 6-and-0 means nothing different than what 5-1 or 4-2 would mean. Many of the "wins" are decided by minor leaguers in the late innings.
But 6-0 means something different from 0-6, when you're winning the 5-inning games too. Our starters are kicking their starters, into the bargain. Today, Smoak and Franklin homered off Franklin homered and Smoak long-doubled off Matt Cain. Cain's not out there enjoying the sight of his own detonation. I don't... Read More
SSI not yet bullish
Posted by jemanji on 02/28/13
6 Comments
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Spec, Lonnie, and Gordon are sky-high on Victor Sanchez. Dr. D isn't yet; he hopes they're right. Don't confuse that last sentence with "Dr. D is skeptical on Sanchez."
Talking points. Sanchez:
Has a motion that is very solid and correct, but not special
Is wayyyy ahead of his age for makeup
Does not have "projectable" velocity gain
Has a body type that is a very significant negative
Has an Erasmo Ramirez arsenal and template
Is wayyyy ahead of his age for command and change speed
My big concern with this guy is ... Willie Bloomquist. Nick Collison. Rick Mirer. All the guys who, at... Read More
Been a long time since we had a Big Two
Posted by jemanji on 02/28/13
11 Comments
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Dr. D splashes the pot with a huge bet ... is Brandon Mauer now part of a Big Five? To which Pros-Spec 66er Extraordinaire shoves in about four towers' worth of chips, rolling the table over:
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Sanchez is #6. Pike is #7. Is Gohara #8?
I'm not down on Maurer, but super-high on Tyler Pike, ultra-polished low-90s teen lefty. Stepped right out of high school and put up a 1.78 ERA and 10.1 K/9.
And you can't ask for much more than Victor Sanchez did at 17, first time in the states. First 17-year-old to pitch for Everett since ... kid named Felix in 2003. Note: Everett is above rookie... Read More
Big Three waitin' they'ah turns
Posted by jemanji on 02/28/13
7 Comments
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SSI says that -- at this particular moment in time -- it values Erasmo Ramirez almost as much as it values James Paxton and Danny Hultzen. :: holds thumb and forefinger a quarter inch apart. ::
That's saying a whale of a lot. There is a very short distance between Danny Hultzen and Cole Hamels. When Dr. D says he'd take Erasmo Ramirez as well as he'd take Danny Hultzen ... he might as well be saying he'd take Erasmo Ramirez before* he'd take Jose Fernandez or Gerrit Cole or Tyler Skaggs. That is in fact what Dr. D IS saying.
*about the same time as
Here's the difference between... Read More
Sorry. It ain't zero.
Posted by jemanji on 02/27/13
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Q. Can you make any sense of spring training statistics?
A. Different stats have different levels of "noise" in them. Ichiro's career batting average has noise in it, but it's about 2%, not counting park context. Ichiro's career range factor has noise in it, too, but the noise is something more like (?) 30%.
Baseball sabermetricians are really cruddy at estimating the AMOUNT OF noise in a particular statistic. A sense of proportion is almost completely lacking in the industry. Sabermigos are great at math; they're not so great at common sense.
We mean it in a good way.
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Q. How much... Read More
... which nobody is DOING, compadre
Posted by jemanji on 02/27/13
17 Comments
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Q. Are MLB talent scouts able to evaluate players based on intuitive judgments?
A. The thought was floated that they aren't. In this article the author implies that the only appropriate tool for making roster decisions is a performance-based analysis.
For example:
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Every year, though, decisions are made based on how players do in March. The decisions are justified by claiming that it they aren’t based on the results, but on how the players look to experienced coaches and scouts who are paid to evaluate players in an up-close-and-personal atmosphere. The problem is that human beings —... Read More
C'mon you punk Angels, he sez, lessee what you GOT
Posted by jemanji on 02/25/13
14 Comments
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Some things, you buy them, get them in the mail, tear them open ... they're exactly as advertised. And disappointing.
Other things, you tear them open, and they're exactly as advertised, and ten times better than you thought.
That's one of the joys of life for me, getting something that's what somebody said it was, and I like it a lot better than I expected to. I'm going to sell a spray can that does this to things. $19.95 per can, buy now and we'll send the second can for the cost of shipping and handling. You can spritz down Brandon League and turn him into Tom Wilhelmsen... Read More
Moshing G-Moneyball
Posted by jemanji on 02/25/13
5 Comments
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Here is G-Money's first serve on Brandon Maurer. It kicks up chalk at 125 MPH. The return of serve thusly:
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=== Gil Meche ===
There is hardly a word in Gordon's scouting report that couldn't have applied to Gil Meche in the day. The 4-pitch arsenal, the command, the velocity on each pitch, everything is Gil Meche to a tee ... which made me laugh when I skimmed down and hit the section where Gordon said he WAS a Meche comp.
Maybe you're thinking ... "Gil Meche? To which I can confidently say, 'Mehhhh who carez'."
Get your head on straight. As a prospect, the shoulder question was the... Read More
Long-awaited roooolllll out
Posted by jemanji on 02/23/13
15 Comments
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Hot seat, in which Dr. D gives his scattergun reaction to news of the day. No thinking allowed.
It's like Lonnie of MC had a Skype podcast rollin' on us. Time to skip to the good stuff! No stats. No facts. No supporting evidence, especially none of that egghead F/X baloney. No wit and most importantly no wisdom. In fact: no baseball knowledge. Just the sound bytes.
This is the American Idol generation. It's got to pop Pop POP!
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HOT SEAT: Blake Beavan throws two solid, and nobody squares up a thing. New angle, says Beavan. Watch me do what Fister did.
DR. D, KNEE JERK: We... Read More
Talia Shire "can't bear to watch" Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 02/23/13
2 Comments
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HOT SEAT: Wells and Bay trade spinning backheels to the jaw on days 1 and 2. Both fall simultaneously. CREED WILL RETAIN HIS TITLE! IF NEITHER OF THEM CAN ....
Dr. D: You know what's really going on in spring training, right?
Imagine if Baseball Prospectus had a little metric column that said "Bat Launch," and indexed it to average, and some hitters were at 120 and some at 80. If they could bottle that stat and get the distributing license, their yearly subscription would be $129.95. Wow! Alvin Davis was always at 127, but this year suddenly he's at 79. Better not draft that kid.... Read More
10c worth of leadership gained, 25c worth of P.T. sacrificed
Posted by jemanji on 02/22/13
23 Comments
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Amigos reply to my Morales and Morse question with the counter, "That's what they're HERE for. To help develop the kids. Pressure's off them, they can benefit from the example, etc."
The explanation is eminently *logical* on the face of it. And without a doubt that IS part of what the Mariners are thinking - that if Justin Smoak hits 7th, in a lineup that is ahead 6-3 that evening, that Smoak will relax into this game. For sure that's included in their thinking.
................
Couple things, though, once we look at it in 3-D...
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1. I don't even think that Morales, a Cuban (not... Read More
Pick a target, hit it with everything you've got
Posted by jemanji on 02/21/13
3 Comments
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=== Strategy and Tactics, Dept. ===
In chess, "strategy" refers to general, overarc'ing plans. I am a pawn ahead, so I should trade pieces, get my rook behind my passed pawn, stop invasions, and get the pawn moving.
"Tactics" refer to specific, moment-to-moment, smaller-scale activites. He goes there, I go there, then he goes there, then I go there. If I play PxP, he plays NxP, then I play B-B4, then he goes B-K3. That's tactics.
In Fortune 500, upper management deals in strategy -- should we keep selling camera film, or should we start making printers? First-level supervisors deal in... Read More
It's a very simple problem, from the GM chair
Posted by jemanji on 02/21/13
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=== Eyes Slideways ===
[COMIC PANEL ONE] You kiddies are desperately hoping for something to occur that might distract SSI, and cause it to talk about something other than soldiers killing people and breaking things.
[COMIC PANEL TWO] Hector Noesi occurs today.
[COMIC PANEL THREE] ::crickets:: :: Dr D thrashes about for a punch line ::
Where is Jeff Sullivan when you really need him?
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The infield battles are not very interesting. Well, it's interesting to see whether the M's will keep only two catchers, and whether they can find room for Alex Liddi or Nick Franklin. But 1B... Read More
The 6-10 starters beat the 1977 M's rotation
Posted by jemanji on 02/21/13
4 Comments
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So, tactically, here's what SSI is watching for in March:
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=== Jeremy Bonderman ===
Tactically, we're watching for a freshly-minted willingness to mix his pitches less predictably.
Bonderman probably has less "pitchability" than any starter in the major leagues, and he has the career ERA-xFIP to show for it.
With his hard swerveball, and his dancing slider, he should have had a career ERA+ of 110. Instead, it's been 90. He's the Brandon League of starting pitchers, coming in with the same 2-0 and 3-1 pitches time after time. He's always stubbornly refused to change .... but he's had... Read More
W. Edwards Deming Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 02/20/13
3 Comments
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=== Nathan says, re: the US military ===
The idea is put forward that the Army is not acting exclusively in its self-interest when training, paying, and feeding the Soldier.
This may not be the appropriate forum, but could you expand on these premises? I'd genuinely like to explore this.
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=== Jeff says, re: the US military ===
Sure. First topic - Have you served?
Let's start with: who are the people you have best known, who have had honorable careers in the U.S. armed forces? Could you tell us a little bit about those people?
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=== Nathan says ===
I have not served. My father served... Read More
Leading the league in HBP's
Posted by jemanji on 02/20/13
25 Comments
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In an earlier article, I had opined ...
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=== Jeff Says ===
"Obviously you can make an argument that no athlete owes his original club loyalty - or in fact anything at all. The club was acting exclusively in its self-interest when it prepared the athlete for stardom, right? (Wrong.)
You can make similar arguments that a Soldier owes his country nothing; the Army was acting exclusively in its self-interest when training, paying, and feeding the Soldier, right? (Wrong.)
You can make arguments that nobody owes anybody anything. People in fact do make these arguments. How many blogs are... Read More
Cross-cultural chatter at BJOL
Posted by jemanji on 02/20/13
6 Comments
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Nathan brought up the question of anarchy. (Red Robin, my second-fave comic book character, by the way.)
...............
It's interesting; James freely mixes his website's material, 80/20 or 90/10, with most of it on baseball but some decent fraction of it on life and philosophy in general. It mixes amazingly well.
John Wooden, they say, would do that, spend 10% or 20% of his time speaking about life in general. James keeps it to about 10% or 20%; he keeps it fair; he keeps it surgically-cool, and the result is that your grasp of baseball acquires a 3rd (or 4th?) dimension.
I forget... Read More
Dalai Lama 'An Open Heart' Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 02/20/13
Posted to blog
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Malcontent sez,
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Hey Doc, what are your thoughts on Smoak's new training method(written up at Baker's blog)? The technique sounds like it makes sense, wouldn't it be fun to see a Saunders-like resurgence, with the new shorter fences.
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Matty sez,
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Baker's piece yesterday on Smoak's new training regimen (including "slow practice" and aiki-like first principles of mental readiness and simplification, as well as the revelation that Smoak should be a "pitch stalk" hitter) made me think of you...sounded like a Dr.'s Rx to me. :)
So...what say you?
Geoff Baker sez,
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A closer look
Just... Read More
The grok part
Posted by jemanji on 02/20/13
Posted to blog
11 Comments
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The benefits to slo-mo training? ... cascade as follows:
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=== Getting Your Inner Grok On ===
Let's say that in a self-defense dojo, they're going to teach you a defense to a drunken knife attack (ha!).
Most places, the instructor will "demonstrate" it in full speed with a cooperative student, mostly for the sake of impressing you. Then, he'll give you two or three checkpoints about the defense, explaining with a fair amount of drama why you want don't want to block this other way, 'cause you could have it hit you in the face, or whatever. Then he'll say, be sure to turn the wrist back... Read More
The tipping, er, balance point
Posted by jemanji on 02/20/13
Posted to blog
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One of Bill James' best observations was one that pertained to young, finesse left hand starters. "Check his balance," he said. "If he's graceful, if he's balanced, he's got a shot. If he's clumsy, he's got no chance." Or somesuch.
Suppose that you stood up right now and practiced something in very slow motion -- say, your runner's stance in the blocks, or your pitching motion, or your tennis serve? What do you suppose would be the first thing you'd notice?
You'd notice the fact that you toppled over sideways while trying to hold a position. :- )
If you can pause pretty well with your... Read More
... at this point you may be asking...
Posted by jemanji on 02/20/13
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There are a lot of paradoxes in the world.
1) Self-sacrifice (love) is the only route to true fulfillment; he that findeth his life shall lose it, and he that loseth his life shall find it. ... a mother's love for her newborn baby is truly selfless, receives absolutely zero in return ... and yet fills her with joy and contentment. A 3-week-old baby gives nothing back to its parents, and yet somehow the love involved is nature's finest reward.
2) Golfers will tell you to swing easy to hit hard.
3) Fermi's Paradox: mathematically, aliens in our galaxy must have colonized the Milky Way... Read More
Out of the cave of the prophet Elijah
Posted by jemanji on 02/20/13
26 Comments
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Okay, so Justin Smoak is finally pulling out the Big Guns. If you told me that he went to the Old Testament Prophet Elijah, and Elijah his ownself told Smoak the key to success, I wouldn't be a whole lot more impressed than I already am.
That's quite a statement, but you know what the difference is between my statement and "hyperbole"? The difference is that I told you precisely why I think so, told you exactly what my grounds are for saying so.
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That said: supposing that Justin Smoak now has baseball's best, cleanest swing. Well, in 2010 he already had a beautiful swing. Granted,... Read More
I know, I know, a dirrrrrrrty word
Posted by jemanji on 02/15/13
17 Comments
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Load up on guns
Bring your friends
It’s fun to lose
And to pretend
She’s overboard
And self-assured
I know I know
A dirty word
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M-Pops axs,
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Doc, I would love to read your take on what specifically makes Felix such a rare and unique player/personality.
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As you know, we live to serve :- )
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=== Dirty Words, Dept. ===
Have you ever contemplated the success rates that the U.S. Army achieves with its boot camp training?
Don't think about it cynically. Think about it intelligently. I mean, supposing somebody gave you an 18-year-old punk foulup to rehab. What do you think you could... Read More
Three words to make a brand essence
Posted by jemanji on 02/15/13
13 Comments
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"Brand" is a business term that is often used cynically; Felix is authentic. But we've been reading a little too much Euro soccer and it's rubbing off. Whatever headline works, man.
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Supposing that you've got a busy morning going - stop for coffee, and get gas, and buy groceries, and go by the mailbox. The mailbox reminds you: you need to get a card for Grandma. You know where you'll get it: the Hallmark store. Why did you think Hallmark?
Hallmark has an image: "When you care enough to send the very best." You buy Hallmark, you're showing refined taste! And you're taking care of... Read More
...
Posted by jemanji on 02/14/13
23 Comments
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... after watching this video.
Felix starts speaking at about the 3:00 mark in the video, and right away he's trembling with nerves.
It isn't anxiety. His hands are open, his arm gestures expressive. When he says "thank you to my family," he chops with his hands, a gesture of extreme dominance -- he's chopping off the discussion. He reaches over and "comforts" his pal "Jack" in a "you can be part of this" motion - Zduriencik works for him, which is not inappropriate; Phil Jackson worked for Michael Jordan. Felix' arms are comfortably territorial and his hands are in a pensive-authority... Read More
Pay me now or pay me later, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 02/13/13
27 Comments
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Mojician sez,
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RHP 1 2012 slashline: 67 IP, 2.26 ERA, 9.2 SO/9 3.2 BB/9. RHP 2 2012 slashline: 47IP 3.25 ERA, 9.1 SO/9 3.0BB/9. Pitcher 1:Rafael Soriano, just paid 2 yrs, 14 mil per year. Pitcher 2: Sean Kelley, DFA'd and available for cheap.
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Whereupon ThirteenofTwo sez,
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Your evaluation of Shawn Kelley depends on whether or not you believe he has a dinger problem. Numbers are never enough to tell you if a reliever has HR issues; there's just not enough data to draw a legitimate conclusion. Capps has never allowed an MLB home run, but for all we know he could have a huge problem with... Read More
But the 2013 M's may be able to exploit a loophole
Posted by jemanji on 02/13/13
10 Comments
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This from BJOL.
Before diving in, a couple of prereq light bulbs: (1) James has demonstrated, to most people's satisfaction, that the current use of the super closer -- a great pitcher coming into a 5-3 game to blow away three hitters in the top of the 9th -- is inefficient.
(2) James has demonstrated, to MY satisfaction, that the 5-man rotation was a clumsy way to reduce stress on pitchers' arms. He shows that in a 4- or even 3-man rotation, you could have installed pitch limits and wound up with healthier pitchers and more effective staffs but "the five-man rotations stayed because... Read More
Where is Sweet Lou when you need him
Posted by jemanji on 02/11/13
9 Comments
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I/O: Baseball America, BaseballHQ, Baseball Prospectus, and Fangraphs all push Taijuan solidly into the #1 spot within Seattle's packed crowd of glamor arms.
This despite Walker being a teenager.
CRUNCH: When James Paxton first signed with the Mariners, Dr. D told you that he'd give you three Taijuans for one Paxton. Those days are long gone.
........
In principle this is still valid, and will be valid, for decades if not centuries to come. It takes a lot of teenaged, high-school Victor Sanchezes to match the worth of one really elite college ace. Even if the teenager is of equal... Read More
On their roto stash list for 2013 productivity
Posted by jemanji on 02/11/13
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I/O: BaseballHQ has four elite SP's that they think look like "annual Cy Young contenders" -- Dylan Bundy, Gerrit Cole, Trevor Bauer and Taijuan Walker.
CRUNCH - Nice to see Cole step back into dominance last year. There are other young SP's who look like impact pitchers very soon - Tyler Skaggs, Jose Fernandez, the M's two starters, and a couple of others.
But the takeaway here is that HQ expects Taijuan to arrive in the second half of this year, or in April 2014 at the latest. He's on their 2013 roto watch list, meaning that their clients should be banking him for 2013 production.
They... Read More
For those of you depressed by ZIPS ...
Posted by jemanji on 02/10/13
11 Comments
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.... free article at BJOL anointing the M's as their choice to pull a 2012 A's or 2009 Rockies.
The last five teams they picked were the:
2009 Rockies, who went from 74 wins to 92 wins,
2011 Indians, who went from 69 wins to 80,
2012 A's, who went from 74 wins to 94,
2012 Royals, from 71 to 72, and
2012 Padres, from 71 to 76
The average loser had been 70-92, and had posted a season over .500 the following season. Not shabby.
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=== Thusly ===
The Mariners, Astros, and Pirates score much higher Cinderella Surprise factors than the rest of the pack in 2013. The scale is from 0-100, and... Read More
SABRMatt runs some math
Posted by jemanji on 02/10/13
3 Comments
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=== We're Not Afraid of Shadows ===
There are several possibilities as to the medical holdup:
HI - The club is trying to 'weasel' a backdoor clause in Felix' contract. Form your own opinions as to whether this would be typical of the current shot-collers.
MID - There are reasonable concerns that Felix could be in for TJ in (say) 2015.
LO - Felix actually does have a frayed elbow ligament, maybe 10% or something. This was the cause of his velocity drop in 2012. He'll throw at a lesser pace than the other pitchers this coming week. There's a good chance he'll miss a season in, say, 2014,... Read More
Feelin' like Abraham Lincoln there, #34?
Posted by jemanji on 02/09/13
8 Comments
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It turns out that Felix' contract is a 5/$135 extension, not a new 7/$175 deal that tears up the old contract. As Baker points out, this means that the 2013 and 14 payrolls won't be affected (much).
This in effect backloads the contract, always an advantage from the team's standpoint. Now the deal is worth less than the $134M in Net Present Value that we calculated yesterday. Without running it again, we'd guess 5/$128.
People will emphasize "richest contract ever for a pitcher", as the Times did yesterday with its "KING'S RANSOM!" headline. But this is in fact a poor assessment,... Read More
Hey! 3/4 of a tuna sandwich in here, and hardly been touched!
Posted by jemanji on 02/08/13
16 Comments
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jellison sez,
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The thought occurred to me, and is noted on another site, in the context of the trade for Morales the acquisition of Saunders is rather interesting. If Vargas and Saunders are viewed as interchangeable (both in performance and salary), and Saunders was available to any team willing to pull the trigger, why did the Angels trade Morales for talent they could have acquired without the loss of Morales? Either
(i) the premise of Vargas and Saunders being interchangeable is fundamentally flawed,
(ii) the market expectations for Saunders' contract changed dramatically between... Read More
Now let's talk the 10% chance that he's Jamie Moyer
Posted by jemanji on 02/07/13
25 Comments
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If Saunders is coming in as a 1-year bridge guy, then the entire conversation changes. Pretty rare, as far as I recall, to get a guy like this to sign with you for a single season.
By "a guy like this" I mean a starting pitcher who:
Throws 200 innings every year (194 x 5 the last five years)
At a 100 ERA+
In the American League
Has been apparently getting a little better as time goes on, and was on a hot roll last we saw him
In other words, doesn't have warts, isn't coming off surgery, yada yada
I don't like Saunders' .500 SLG against righties, especially with the fences coming in out... Read More
Buy five, get the next two free Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 02/07/13
7 Comments
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From BJOL this week:
..............
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rtalllia's question and your answer (would you get out of A-Rod's contract now if you could, yes) reminds me of something I've thought for some time now, and that's whether some criticisms of long-term contracts might be misplaced. It seems to me that you can think of a long-term contract as equal to a shorter contract for more money. Say you want Albert Pujols but won't pay $20 million a year for 3 years ($60 million), and he won't take $10 million for three years ($30 million), so you give him $12 million a year for 5 years and figure you're really... Read More
Drugs, maybe. Performance, okay. Enhancement? Of what?
Posted by jemanji on 02/06/13
8 Comments
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Q. If Montero was using, how come we didn't see any 440-footers in 2012?
A. I was kind of surprised to see that he actually did hit some home runs pretty hard. I remembered his season, visually, as being like Kendry Morales' ... a big guy who really spent most of his time lining the ball around the park like Johnny Damon.
But Montero did average 104.7 MPH on his HR's and smack three or four pretty good ones. As the GM of the Twins said one time about Scott Erickson in arbitration, "I guess some guys had a lot better seasons than I remember him having."
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Q. You don't think he used?... Read More
THISSSSS short of a Pineda-, Seager-, Lincecum-type SSIBB
Posted by jemanji on 02/04/13
2 Comments
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... actually, am considering making Erasmo the 4th member of the club, however. Pineda and Lincecum, Seager ... hmmmmm ... whattaya think G...
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=== Picture's Worth 1,000 Words, Dept. ===
His September 30th start -- against the awe-inspiring Ranger-ripping Angel-mangling Your 2012 American League West Champion Oakland A's -- is recorded for posterity rat cheer.
I'd watch it. :- / ::dennis leary::
FIRST PITCH against LH Reddick -- 82 deadfish changeup, started middle-out and high, swerved way outside and rolled off the table. Garbage swing by Reddick, leaned wayyyy out, took the snap... Read More
One thing we know, the kid can paint
Posted by jemanji on 02/04/13
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"There are four kinds of people who join the military.
"Family business. Patriots. Guys who just need a job. And then there are the ones who want a legal way to kill human beings." -- Tom Cruise
LrKrBoi29 will come up with six exceptions, but that gets our arms around it, Tom. -- Dr D.
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There are basically four kinds of pitchers who walk 1+ men per nine innings:
Groundballers. SSI follows on Bill James in discriminating against this interest group. They are analogous to "Soldiers who just needed a job." Braden Looper, Jeff Suppan, Nick Blackburn. Although Suppan walks guys every... Read More
There's nooooooo escape from the inevitable
Posted by jemanji on 02/04/13
2 Comments
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Q. To come up with pitchers who are genuinely similar to Erasmo Ramirez, what would we want?
A. What skills has Erasmo demonstrated already, and what is his statistical profile?
He keeps his walks low, based on mechanics in part.
He can strike guys out, no doubts there, based on his killer change in part.
He might or might not develop gopheritis; his fastball is deceptively short (90-92 visually compared to 92-95 on the gun)
Right now his game is built on classical change-speed, as opposed to cutters, groundballs, etc.
He throws with his right hand
You could argue about other stuff: ... Read More