April 2013
RHP Maurer vs stacked LHB Orioles
Posted by jemanji on 04/30/13
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Maurer's bugaboo is that LHB's see the fastball out of his hand very well.
He can work around this, as many RHP's do. But it is definitely his Achilles' heel, and he'll always have to attend to it very carefully. Tuesday night, he failed to do so.
..............
Let's take the first inning AB-by-AB, just to raise your comfort level that --- > the information you're getting is accurate.
Cheap at twice the price.
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MAURER vs McCLOUTH, INNING 1, BATTER 1
Start by understanding that Nate McClouth is the hottest hitter in _________ right now. Fill in the blank with whatever context you... Read More
... continuing the AB-by-AB
Posted by jemanji on 04/30/13
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MAURER vs MACHADO
Okay, one pitch, a fastball up-and-in, very nice jam pitch. 93 MPH. Actually not even quite a strike. Machado smoked it down the line for a double:
And, to add insult to injury, here is Machado's hot zone chart:
fties out. When he doesn't challenge them with telegraphed hot-zone pitches. It may take awhile. We'll wait.
Enjoy,
Dr D
M's bring the "pitcher bats" strategy back to the AL
Posted by jemanji on 04/30/13
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ENOUGH! COMEDY! JOKES!, Dept.
Larry Stone did an outstanding job (1) capturing and (2) explaining the "game situation" that the Mariners crawled into, in Tuesday's sixth inning.
M's were down 6-0. It was getting late early.
Michael Morse homered. All right! Justified my tickets.
Jason Bay grounded one deep over the 2B bag, against a shift, and beat it out.
Justin Smoak socked a lonnnngggg single, missile-like arc. Two on, NOBODY OUT! :- )
Dustin Ackley turned around a 95 MPH fastball. Right back thru the box. BASES LOADED!
Kelly Shoppach grounded out ... meh ... but beat out the... Read More
"Safeco Joe" runs it to 8 in a row
Posted by jemanji on 04/29/13
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Q. Was "Safeco Joe" really that good? Complete-game four hitter. Wow. Felix hasn't thrown a CG.
A. He wasn't that good, no.
Not taking anything away from him. He threw an average-solid game -- he executed his own game about average, a shade to the better side of average. He's done it a hundred times before; he'll probably do it a hundred well, at least thirty or forty times again.
This game was just evening out the law of averages for him. Bad luck played into the 15 runs he coughed up his last two starts. Good luck played into this start.
You don't buy that, at first bang of the... Read More
M's lumber crawls out of the coffin
Posted by jemanji on 04/29/13
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It's a funny thing, but the Mariners' team OPS+ is quite reasonable after one month of play. It's 95.
And there are all kinds of players who actually had good Aprils, positioning them for big years at the arb table:*
Hitter
OPS+
Remark
CF/RF Saunders
156
Epic WBC in March; 1.0 EYE in April with >.500 SLG
3B Seager
149
Most-improved hitter in baseball, per Sw%
CF Gutierrez
131
4 homers, 3 doubles ... in two weeks' play
RF Morse
114
Took a tragic HBP too keep him THIS bottled up
DH Morales
109
On pace for 70 walks, 30 doubles, 20 homers - meh
OF Bay
128
Krueger: "he's about to catch fire... Read More
Dr. D just a leeeetle behind the curve
Posted by jemanji on 04/29/13
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The robo-EMS provides rescue in desperate war-zone scenarios. How this would relate to current Mariner events, Dr. D hasn't a clue.
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Spec sez,
You haven't looked at Nick Franklin yet?! Try:
Reached base in every single game he's played this year (that would be 15; missed first week with tonsilitis)
Reached base by getting a base hit in 14 of those 15
Had five base hits and a walk in one of those games
Eye ratio: 14 BB, 8 K
XBH or a walk in 29.6% of PAs (I've found 19% to be the benchmark)
Slash line: .382/.514/.618
vs. LHP (the Achilles Heel): 11 PAs, 4 H, 1 double,... Read More
Triage him, nurse.... WHAT? Did those eyelids flutter?
Posted by jemanji on 04/28/13
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23 Comments
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BASEBALL IS ABOUT THE STRIKE ZONE, sez the Founding Father
Over the last three years, there are three starting pitchers whose CTL ratios ... that is, their K/BB ratios ... exceed 4.0.
Cliff Lee - 7.2
Roy Halladay - 5.7
Dan Haren - 4.4
Then all the other elites are in the 3's ... Verlander and Greinke at 3.8, Doug Fister at 3.6, etc.
Iwakuma is at 7.4 and Felix is at 6.3. Crazy. Baseball IS about the strike zone, and the more you analyze Iwakuma (and Maurer!) through that lens, the better they look. Felix? He is improving.
Right now Iwakuma is running a WBC-style exhibition out there,... Read More
M's 2, Angels 1 - spot me an iPod, meat?
Posted by jemanji on 04/28/13
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IF YOU JUST JOINED US
Hisashi Iwakuma detonated the Angels on Sunday afternoon.
It went far beyond a simple six inning shutout, three hits, eight whiffs. In 90 pitches, the Angels swung and failed to make ANY contact 17 different times. Remember, the baseball is coming through an area about the size of your computer monitor. And MLB cleanup hitters say, "if the catcher can catch it, I can hit it."
Not Hisashi Iwakuma, they can't. They whaled and whaled and whaled away, and the airfan off their bats was keeping WBC-san's brow dust-dry. About the fifth inning, Iwakuma tossed in a 71 mph... Read More
Iwakuma's lifetime ERA: 2.37. Verlander's lifetime ERA: 3.37.
Posted by jemanji on 04/28/13
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BY THE NUMBERS
2.37 - What is Iwakuma-san's career ERA, as a starter (132 IP)
3.37 - What is Justin Verlander's career ERA, as a starter (lots of IP)
AN INTEGER - What is the difference between the two ERA's, currently
VERLANDER and schlub for IWAKUMA, SEAGER, and SWEETENER - dream rotisserie trade, and easy to execute
1.02 - Iwakuma-san's lifetime ERA vs the Angels (5 starts, 35 IP, with 30 K and 3 BB)
BE AFRAID, BE VERY AFRAID - what is the Angels' visceral reaction to a Mariner series with Felix and Iwakuma going
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5.6+ - how many strikeouts per game does a finesse... Read More
Felix gives him the ball after only 95 pitches
Posted by jemanji on 04/27/13
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Sandy Koufax used to say that he started every game with the thought, "you're not getting any hits today." After the first hit, he went to "you're not getting any runs." If the other team scored a run, he locked in "NO WAY you're beating me."
Probably the best thing about Felix is the way he pitches when he's behind two runs. Saturday night, he was in the dugout pointing fingers out at players who did something good on the field, hugging them at the end of the line when they came across home plate, making spectacular defensive plays, and generally being everything you want a team captain... Read More
What's beyond Best Bet? Better Bet?
Posted by jemanji on 04/27/13
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SABERMETRICS 101 ... er, 541
In April of 2012, we ran across an old Bill James article from 2009. At that time, SSI realized that The Inner Game of Baseball pivots around the batter trying to pull the ball in the air.
(It's a complex battle, because many pitches should not be pulled at all, much less in the air. It's like saying that NFL football pivots around downfield pass routes -- cornerbacks, speed DE's, and left tackles are critical. We're not saying that every NFL play should be a throw into the end zone, or that every Seager swing should be aimed at the right field seats.)... Read More
Blast from the past article - published April 2012
Posted by jemanji on 04/27/13
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Is this the swing of a man with a 98% contact percentage?
.............
Here's the video of his upper-tank shot against Holland. The back leg is set at like 30 degrees off the ground, as if you'd set a pike against an incoming warhorse. The front leg isn't a lot different. And we hope that he has spikes on the side of his shoe.
We had the privilege of watching Seager's power in spring training: counting HR's canceled by hail, intersquad, etc., the man hit four or five no-doubt homers down there. After every blinkin' one of them, people talked about ... the Arizona wind.
............... Read More
reverts to best bet status ... small "b"
Posted by jemanji on 04/25/13
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25 Comments
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Q. What were those diagnostic criteria again?
A. Thusly:
Establish the fastball – make them get the bats started
Expand the zone with the slider
Cut the repertoire to two bread-and-butter pitches
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Q. Is SSI still confident that this R/X is well matched to the patient?
A. Most definitely.
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Q. Where do we rank him bullet the first ... , scale 1 – 10?
A. 10+. That probably sells him short.
Brandon had a deadly fastball and his intentions were worse than that. First batter of the game, Bourjos, four pitches, four fastballs, the last one 95 mph low on the black. Here's the Game Day. No more... Read More
Easier in theory, since Zduriencik is not the Queen of Hearts
Posted by Gordon Gross on 04/25/13
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With all this talk about firing Wedge after yet another debacle against the dominating, unbeatable Astros, I think you guys are over-estimating the security Jack has.
Jack (11/22/08-present) has been the same amount of time as Bill Bavasi was (11/7/03 to 6/1/08), give or take 6 weeks.
Bavasi had his error (Melvin, who got much better with experience but had zilch at the time) and Jack had Wak.
Both went with a stabilizing manager from Cleveland for round 2. Grover actually was doing quite well his last season, but then the club severed ties with him, gave the job to an interim coach with no... Read More
like glass to the cornea
Posted by Gordon Gross on 04/24/13
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So if you're like me you've been seeing a lot of the posts and shouts on this blog (and may have shouted a few of them yourself at high volume during Mariners broadcasts/torture sessions). The general frustration in Mariner-dom after a straight decade of radical incompetence on the playing field is entirely understandable, and it certainly FEELS like I've been forced to watch this ineptitude with my eyes forced open Clockwork-Orange style for months.
But it's still just April. The Ms are bad (horrendous, abominable, a blight on all that is good and holy... pick an appropriate term and... Read More
We don't ALWAYS have to translate English into stats language
Posted by jemanji on 04/23/13
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Q. What did the Golden Bear mean when he said, "Never hit a quit shot?"
A. Mo' Dawg could lay this out for you better than Dr. D could. But generally you are talking about playing a discouraged shot. You're talking about a shot that lacks the extra planning, focus, and hope that you put into it, when things are going well.
In chess, an amateur "folds" in a bad position not when --- > he stops trying hard. He folds when he becomes resigned to the outcome, and his tactical calculations begin to lose their sharpness.
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Q. Is it a cliché to speak in terms of a "professional at-bat" or... Read More
What 450 foot HRs mean to me
Posted by Gordon Gross on 04/23/13
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Moshing off of Doc's MonStero article here, wherein he describes how Jesus displays with one very prodigious (and comically easy) blast why he's been a prospect darling since he was in swaddling clothes.
I agree - THAT Montero is a monster. So why on earth would anyone consider bailing on him after seeing something like that? Well, there are some questions...
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1) can he catch a full season? You would think so - I mean, he was a catcher in the minors right? Well, yes...
Age 17: 23-of-33 games at catcher (70%)
Age 18: 71-of-132 (54%)
Ages 19-21: 59-of-92, 105-of-123, 91-of... Read More
... the hole in BABIP and xFIP
Posted by jemanji on 04/22/13
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=== (Seager's Double)===
Have you ever noticed, that in jewelry stores, they are careful to put diamonds onto black velvet when they show them to you?
Contrast, relief, and proportion are important.
Here is the pitch sequence that Brad Peacock threw to Kyle Seager, right before Jesus Montero's monster home run:
Worked him to a one and one count, using two fastballs, and then threw him a beautiful changeup just outside. (If you just joined us, hard stuff in – soft stuff away is the way to take the poison out of a strong player's bat.)
Perfect one and one changeup, and Seager rocked a... Read More
Rob-o-tronic blast cheers the faithful
Posted by jemanji on 04/22/13
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Here is the video of Montero's 441-footer on Monday. On TV, they said it was his first home run since last September 2.
Montero hadn't really been doing anything wrong this year, other than hitting the ball with a total lack of authority. In one of Dr. D's little mini-spasms of irrationality, he had begun to think of Montero as a hyper-Smoak, a hitter whose essential problem lay in the area of "warning track power." Big guys, no speed, whose game is based on deep fly balls ... that are caught by outfielders.
No, scratch that, it wasn't irrationality – it was laziness. We hadn't looked at... Read More
Gutierrez leading the M's in R and RBI ... in 57 AB's
Posted by jemanji on 04/22/13
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Q. Is Franklin Gutierrez ever going to be healthy?
A. It's like you buy a used car and first the tranny goes out, and then the suspension, and then the head gasket blows… I doubt that his bowel disease caused his pulled hamstring today. You do realize that some people are just not durable.
You're probably too young to remember Eric Davis. He used to slug .550, steal 50, 80 bases, walk about that many times, play a great center field… Maybe the best player in baseball when he could ever get out there.
The Reds, Dodgers, and Tigers spent about six years chasing him. Some years he played like... Read More
This team is wayyyy underperforming
Posted by jemanji on 04/22/13
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23 Comments
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=== Disclaimers and Quid Pro Quo's, Dept. ===
I think Eric Wedge is a good manager. I respect him highly and like him just fine. I hope he succeeds.
By many standards, he has succeeded, overwhelmingly. If he retired now, he'd have achievements that 99.9% of males in America dream of. Quite literally, dream of.
Am sure he's not interested in retiring now. :- )
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=== Canary Falls Over in the Coal Mine ===
Geoff Baker's credibility factor with SSI is at 100 out of 100 as it pertains to this type of issue. Seattle couldn't ask for a better man to report on these things. Today, he ... Read More
BJOL chimes in on Gordon's article (well, kinda-shorta)
Posted by jemanji on 04/22/13
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Gordon wrote a fascinating article about "tweener" position players, Degree of Difficulty. The Founding Father had -- in effect -- a reply for us:
...............
In the 1990's, if am remembering it right, you wrote an essay -- it observed that the best, most winning organizations had a tendency to put "tweener" position players at the easier position, the one at which they could relax, hit, and succeed. (Might have been centered on Howard Johnson.)
You remarked that in Strat-O-Matic or APBA or whatever, it was an obvious strategy to put the LF/CF's in CF, the SS/3B's at SS, etc... Read More
Pilot applying chest and shoulders to the joystick
Posted by jemanji on 04/20/13
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Hot seat, in which the bleacher bums chat baseball with absolutely no (a) statistical analysis, (b) preparation, (c) accuracy or even (d) undue concern for whether they're completely wrong.
But hey. We're a lot of things -- fair-weather fans ain't one of 'em. As Bill James said, "I believe in struggling through the down times, in watching the kids figure things out. It makes the winning more fun."
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=== Buy a Clue, Dept. ===
Dr. D is as disgusted, and discouraged, as anybody. Why is it an Act Of blinkin' Congress to score one lousy run?
The Darvishes, Fisters, and Verlanders did it,... Read More
M's starters keepin' the door shut
Posted by jemanji on 04/20/13
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=== Brandon Maurer ===
Took a 1-0 game into the 7th inning, against a tough LH lineup, in Texas.
Even the two runs were excusable solo shots. If there are "No Doubters" and "Just Enoughs," what is it when a fan takes a ball out of Franklin Gutierrez' glove?
The other solo shot was to right center; CJ Wilson left Texas and moaned ruefully, "if it's in the air to right center, it's gone."
Except for those two swings, the Rangers didn't get much of the ball. They sat back on the ball, hit most fastballs to the opposite field ...
SSI's diagnosis held firm for the second game. Maurer... Read More
Puts Justin Verlander's head on his wall
Posted by jemanji on 04/18/13
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Q. What would make you compare Hisashi Iwakuma in any way to an MLB pitcher with over 100 WAR?
A. He's reminding me of Greg Maddux in the same way that Chris Sale is reminding me of Randy Johnson.
The opposing pitchers he has just faced, back to back to back, might be the three best in the league right now, and all pitching for ALCS contenders:
Justin Verlander, Detroit - W, 2-0 (decision to pen)
Yu Darvish, Texas - W, 3-1
Chris Sale, Chicago - L, 3-4 (decision to pen)
The only scalp you'd really like to see to added to that would be Felix's. Maybe Hisashi can figure out a way to pull... Read More
Is the three-and-a-half-twist in a pike position too much?
Posted by Gordon Gross on 04/18/13
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Under "The Dustin Ackley Conundrum" Doc poses this riddle:
It's the same Zduriencik that pointed his finger at Braun, Fielder, and Weeks, who chose our guys.
And the same Zduriencik that chose when to bring the Brewers to the big leagues, vs bringing our guys to the big leagues.
And the same Zduriencik overseeing how much overcoaching they get or don't.
Kyle Seager didn't blow up upon being promoted aggressively.
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Posing the (between the lines) question of: why are THESE studs struggling when the previous studs were all fine? I think it's possible this is the... Read More
re: Justin Smoak and sluggers
Posted by Gordon Gross on 04/18/13
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u·ni·corn [yoo-ni-kawrn] noun1. a mythical creature resembling a horse, with a single horn in the center of its forehead: often symbolic of chastity or purity.
slang: your dream person or perfect, unattainable person (because such a person doesn't exist).
Sluggers exist. We know. Other teams use them against us with some frequency, so we should be able to attain one (or two or even three). Morse can hit a ball a long way, if he sticks around. But assuming for a minute that he doesn't, this post is more in reference to the thing we lack at ALL levels of the Mariners' system, and have been... Read More
"He's dead, Jim" vs. "He's only MOSTLY dead..."
Posted by Gordon Gross on 04/17/13
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Dustin Ackley is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma. The guy was the college hitter of the DECADE. He never hit lower than .400 in his collegiate career, and that’s with having TJ surgery to fix his UCL. I figured his easy middle ground was a previous college hitter of the decade, Robin Ventura. Robin was also left-handed, also a 3-time All-American, also an infielder, also went through a horrible streak (0-for-41 as a rook) and was still an 1800 hit man with 50+ WAR despite a catastrophic injury in the middle of his career. That’s quite a fine career to aspire to, but I... Read More
If you can't solve the problem, then walk around it
Posted by jemanji on 04/16/13
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As Geoffy writes today (and yesterday), M'sTV will change, or should change, the landscape of Seattle sports. The blog-o-sphere, right on cue, erupts in a hail of cupcakes thrown across the tables. LOL.
Baker writes, okay, the local nine now has big time dinero. Let's see them act like it. (They already have, to some extent, with the Hamilton and Fielder offers, and the Felix contract. Things are showing signs of change.)
Another, notable blogger writes, the Mariners have always wanted to win every bit as much as anybody else ever did, so SHADDAP about it already.
Others fall in line,... Read More
LOOGY, next Arthur Rhodes, or ... SP?
Posted by jemanji on 04/16/13
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If you just joined us, LaFromboise is French for "the raspberry." And this is one dude who definitely rocks a happenin' French look out there. Word is that he's going with an M's beret on the next homestand.
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=== Little Unit, Dept. ===
Gordon and Spectator have been talking up Monsieur LaFromboise since June of the 116 win season. Dr. D has no clue what they said, but he knows that it was accurate. If you talk to them sweet, they'll probably be willing to restate it for you. There are probably others who would like to see it recapped at this point. ::whistling::
The problem for them is... Read More
M's losing 6 pitches a night to smirking umps
Posted by jemanji on 04/16/13
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Great discussion going on the fact -- yes, fact -- that MLB(TM) umps are ripping the Mariners off. Huge. Here is an article that is absolutely mediocre by Jeff Sullivan's standards, which means that it is an article that is absolutely sparkling by any other standard.
EXEC SUM: so far this year, the Mariners are losing -45 per 1,000 pitches compared to the norm. This makes them last in baseball. Another team is gaining +67 per 1,000 pitches.
That's about 6, 8 pitches a night, both directions. And supposing that pitch was Strike Three for Carter Capps, and then he goes on to give up... Read More
Noodling on the idea of his return
Posted by jemanji on 04/15/13
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Geoffy with a bare-knuckle Op Ed this morning, raking his opponents over the coals for the Jaso and Wells debates. Geoff has got a constitutional right to his opinion -- now that he's in America, not Canada -- and he's taking full advantage. :- )
Whereupon the Toronto Blue Jays drew a double-underline beneath Baker's assessment, designating Wells for assignment. As Spectator pointed out.
.............
I don't know whether it's typical for a player in Wells' situation to feel friendly about a bounceback. You'd assume that he would. The M's treated him well this March, as far as we can... Read More
Sports and life.
Posted by Gordon Gross on 04/15/13
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Sports are wonderful. They allow people to get together and celebrate our tribalist nature with a reduced level of violence. We don’t have to sharpen our spears and march to war – we can toss a pigskin or horsehide ball onto the field, set up some rules and allow for organized chaos; play war by proxy, where the guns are imaginary and opposing sides can meet tomorrow and shake hands. They allow us to paint our faces and wear our heart on our sleeves without having the blood of our families soaking the earth as a consequence.
Not today, though.
Today, someone decided to take this friendly... Read More
Whups UP on da Texas Rangers
Posted by jemanji on 04/14/13
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2 Comments
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Q. First of all: was he really that good? He pitched 6 innings, gave up 3 runs.
A. He was every bit that good. If he threw the ball like that, he'd win 15 games and the ROY, unless somebody else did a Strasburg.
The Texas lineup is a pretty rough ride for power right-handers:
Player
Bats
Comment
Lance Berkman
LH
One of the game's great LH-vs-RH batters (.307/.423/.587 in 6,000 PA)
AJ Pierzynski
LH
Hit .287 with a .523 SLG last year against RH; their best hitter right now
1B Moreland
LH
Compares to Raul in his prime
David Murphy
LH
.290/.375/.487 vs RH last year; big platoon... Read More
All downhill from here amigo (we hope)
Posted by jemanji on 04/14/13
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Q. Did Maurer change his pitch selection?
A. He did, yes, and he changed it radically. This change was absolutely the key to his success.
In his last start, he was KO'ed by the Houston Astros in the first inning. There might have been a certain amount of luck involved, but make no mistake: he got KO'ed, and it took smelling salts to peel him off the canvas.
Here is the pitch-by-pitch breakdown that SSI provided of the carnage. The strikeout-prone Astros were passive, taking long looks at the ball -- vulnerable to fastballs, but well set up to hit offspeed pitches. Maurer threw a... Read More
My kingdom for some luck
Posted by Gordon Gross on 04/13/13
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The Mariners are 5-7. It feels like 2-12 but it's really not that bad. Getting blown out by the Astros has the emotional impact of half-a-dozen losses, but that's the great thing about baseball: no matter how badly one or two games go, the ups and downs should even out over time. It's hard to be unlucky over 162 games - our record should approximate our talent level and on-the-field output by the end of the year.
Over the first 2 weeks of a season, though, it's absolutely possible to slip on a banana peel or walk under a ladder and have some things not go your way. The Mariners have FELT... Read More
Rangers 1 ...
Posted by jemanji on 04/12/13
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=== Lookin' At You Sideways, Dept. ===
First pitch of the game, WBC-san rocked, paused at the top, drove forward and --- > fired a stinging little fastball --- > exactly into Shoppach's mitt, on the black and knee high.
The pitch had excellent life and drive, and was one of the best fastballs I've seen Iwakuma throw. Okayyyyyy.
And then guess what he did with the next pitch?
Dr. D lurched forward in his chair. We were two pitches in, and Iwakuma-ShoppAckA-Tack owned the building.
Pitch #3 came in looking just like a fastball, and the bottom fell out of it at the last second... 88... Read More
... M's 3 (and it's an early 3)
Posted by jemanji on 04/12/13
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I woke up in a SoDo doorway
The policeman knew my name
He said, "You can win one at home tonight
If you can go up and Walk today"
I staggered up to see what Yu got
The breeze blew back my hair
I remembered throwing punches around
And takin' AJ's dare
Said who are Yuuuu
Who who
Who who?
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Darvish has started five games at Safeco and, as Dave Valle remarked, "He is clearly not comfortable pitching in this stadium." Also with the nation of Japan watching the WBC matchup he couldn't have been happy with his command.
That's okay by us. Darvish is one of the three, four, five best SP's in... Read More
Tacoma Rain takes the board deep!
Posted by jemanji on 04/12/13
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22 Comments
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=== Tacoma Rain Sez ===
I just do not think cutting a couple marginal players gets you bad karma. Doc and Moe are correct in that there must be something else missing...
What I do see though is that EVERY team the Mariners play seem to have most of their batters at peace when they are in the batters box. All these teams have a majority of their players almost in a zen like state of see ball - hit ball.
Ackley has 40% chance at best currently of putting a hanging slider in play, and much less hitting it to the wall. Seagar is trying to make sure he hits every fast ball thrown, so he does... Read More
Black Mamba, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 04/12/13
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=== PHX Terry Sez ===
"People in the M's org suspect that Jesus Montero's catching is creating teamwide dysfunction." As a guy who deals in tangibles and not intangibles, this statement, for me, raises several questions:
1) What are the concrete on-field effects of this teamwide dysfunction? E.g., players not trying, pitchers making wrong pitches in key situations, poor defensive positioning, baserunning mistakes, etc?
2) What specific actions are being done by Montero to create the dysfunction? E.g., poor pitch calling, poor framing, failure to block pitches in the dirt, poor throws... Read More
What goes around, comes around Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 04/11/13
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=== Definitions ===
KARMA, Hinduism, Buddhism. Literally "action," seen as bringing upon oneself inevitable results, good or bad, either in this life or a reincarnation.
Karma, in Hinduism, is not punishment, revenge, or retribution, but a consequence of decisions and acts. It names the universal principle of cause and effect, action and reaction, that governs all life.
Karma is not fate; humans act with free will, creating their own Karma and therefore their own destinies. A Christian expression of this is found in Gal. 6:7-8: "do not be deceived; God is not mocked. What a man sows,... Read More
Is he a viable option?
Posted by jemanji on 04/11/13
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Q. Is there anybody left who does not think that the Mariners are going to be Mike Zunino's club very shortly?
A. Nobody within the organization, not that I know of. And Jack Zduriencik his ownself certainly plans to give the team to Zunino before too much time passes.
The few people left, warning us not to get too excited, are bloggers. Not the baseball people.
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Q. Would there be any precedent, for asking Mike Zunino to hit in the major leagues after so little time in the minors?
A. You know about John Olerud, of course, who skipped the minors and posted a .364 OBP back in 1990.
The... Read More
0.8, 0.6, and 1.8 WAR the last three years
Posted by jemanji on 04/11/13
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SSI, along with everybody else, acknowledges Replacement Level's usefulness as a paradigm. Obviously RL moves are made, many times, by every GM, during every season.
Jack Zduriencik just ran into his first Replacement Level situation of the 2013 season. We're not saying that GM's can avoid "stop-loss" or RL situations; what SSI questions is how reliably we can PREDICT what the replacement level is, at any moment in time, for any given club.
Pitching is easier to predict than hitting -- any pitcher can replace any other pitcher* -- whereas Endy Chavez would not be able to replace Brendan... Read More
Capt Jack wrings his hands over the 'slippage'
Posted by jemanji on 04/11/13
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=== My-Pivots.com ===
A stop limit order is an order that is triggered once a certain price is touched.
Stop limit orders are mostly used to close losing trades or lock in profits on winning trades when the market turns.
Say a trader buys a future or stock at 1120. The trader doesn't want to lose any more than a maximum of 20 points on this trade. The trader will put a stop limit sell order at 1100. If the market trades down to 1100 then his order will be triggered and turns into a market order to sell his position.
The trader may or may not get the price that he stipulated (1100) in... Read More
sometimes ya just Got No Words
Posted by jemanji on 04/10/13
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The word "Thesaurus" comes from an old Latin word meaning "storehouse" or "treasure." In 1852, Dr. Peter Roget published a treasury of "English words and phrases," apparently to be used as a toolbox for writers.
Treasury?! The single most, um, embarrassing thing a writer could admit -- much more embarrassing than admitting plagiarism, which implies that you're beating the system -- is that he needed a thesaurus to find convincing words.
... Donny Osmond, when he was a kid, cheerfully admitted that he used a thesaurus to come up with song lyrics, and he was forever done as a Serious... Read More
Is the kid's Best Bet card revoked? Read all about it
Posted by jemanji on 04/09/13
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Q. Is the Best Bet card revoked?
A. He's on probation, at minimum. In the next two starts, assuming he makes them, he'll need to show the slider that he showed in ST. I doubt he will.
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Q. On what basis is the card revoked?
A. He got it, in the first place, based on these short-term observations. Had they been valid observations, they'd have warranted the card:
First of all, his stuff is legit (and remains legit), starting with a 91-95 fastball.
A Freddy Garcia poise, presence, and pitchability.
A signature slider with arm action that had batters consistently out in front.
A... Read More
I'm not a boxing cut man, I just play one on TV
Posted by jemanji on 04/09/13
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Q. What happened out there, from a technical standpoint?
A. There's an axiom in baseball. You read the hitter, and you pitch him accordingly:
If he's amp'ed up - pull the string, throw offspeed.
If he's passive - bust him with the fastball.
The Astros, as a lineup, were passive. They had fanned 9,000 times in an ugly first week, including a near-perfecto by Yu Darvish. After 20% swings and misses (!) they were dialed back, just trying to put the ball in play.
Maurer could have made hay with his 94-95 MPH fastball. Instead, he lobbed offspeed in there, and the Astros lined their little... Read More
Thumb Up or Down?, dept.
Posted by jemanji on 04/09/13
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7 Comments
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Q. Does Maurer get more chances if it's SSI's club?
A. The first question is whether Maurer's equilibrium has been wrecked. IFF I thought he could regain his poise for his next start, that's IFF ... then absolutely, I'd send him back out there.
His adjustments are clear. I want to see him pitch having made the adjustments.
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Q. Which adjustments are ... what, again? What do you mean, ESTABLISH THE FASTBALL?
A. It's a cliche that, in his specific case, has traction.
ONLY after the catchers see the batters give in, and go into fast-twitch mode -- that's the second time through the... Read More
Deep breaths, Brandon, Deep breaths ...
Posted by jemanji on 04/09/13
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=== Erikkk vs M's ===
Nobody quite knows what Erikkk will be this year.
Last year, watching him, Dr. D silently dabbed at the corners of his eyes with a tissue. Gone was the upright, regal delivery and crackling hook. He was lunging forward like Sid Fernandez, trying to steer the ball into the strike zone, trying to grovel strikes. He wasn't the same pitcher, not by a long shot.
The only video we can find of him this year, is that March 31st outing in relief. His delivery was back upright ... but it was stiff and mechanical, as though he were on anxiety medicine, or something. There... Read More
Whass' goin' on tonight?
Posted by jemanji on 04/09/13
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I/O: The Mariners limited the A’s 3 hits in each of the first two games of the season, the first team to open a season with back-to-back games allowing 3 or fewer hits in each game since the Reds in 1970.
Hisashi Iwakuma has struck out 10 and not walked a batter in his first two starts this season (14.0 IP)...he is just the fourth pitcher in club history to pitch at least 6.0 innings and not walk a batter in each his first two starts of a season...Cliff Lee was the last to accomplish this, recording three straight starts in 2010, joining Mike Morgan (1987) and Jamie Moyer (2002).
CRUNCH: ... Read More
We're not as far apart as we think we are :- )
Posted by jemanji on 04/09/13
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Geoffy linked up our last article on WAR dogma ... no doubt there's some fresh traffic to SSI on the subject. A little Exec Sum would probably be helpful.
Okay, here's the thing. Neither James, Zduriencik, I, or anybody else disputes the idea that WAR (or VORP, or Win Shares, or...) has a lot of value. Everybody on SSI, and everybody with the Mariners we're sure, considers WAR (or Win Shares, or VORP, or a similar one-stop stat) carefully when discussing a roster move.
WAR is great. It is ruined when it is used 2-dimensionally, as though it were the blinkin' Periodic Table of... Read More
SSI reaches for Angels rejects like a hungry man reaching for bread
Posted by jemanji on 04/08/13
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21 Comments
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It became clear what Bazooka Joe was talking about, that Montero didn't "get" Saunders' game last time around. The typical inning has around 15 pitches, and in those 15 pitches his Monday mix was:
Pitch
# thrown per IP
Fastball
11
Gloveside slider
2
Armside changeup
2
Saunders pitches even more like Jarrod Washburn than we gave him credit for. He wants to "pitch to contact," to challenge (right hand) batters to do something with a located fastball. In theory, that's fine, provided you're not missing out and over the plate, allowing two home runs to mess up an otherwise pleasant evening.... Read More
The right handed Big Unit?
Posted by jemanji on 04/08/13
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From 1989-1992 ... actually about July of 1992, as we recall ... Randy Johnson was a mediocre pitcher, but a mediocre pitcher who had unlimited upside. IIRC, he had a great finish to 1992.
Bill James issued a major storm warning that winter. That was a pretty good heads-up, considering that it was the Jurassic Era of sabermetrics. These days, being ahead of the curve means you are 1-2 weeks earlier than everybody else. Which, as you know, SSI usually is. We live to serve.
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We might not be any earlier than you on this one, as far as Carter Capps being about to take over the... Read More
Man, those guys can RAKE
Posted by jemanji on 04/08/13
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15 Comments
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Tacoma Rain, taking his own cyber-life in his hands, speaks of He Who Must Not Be Named:
I know we are sooo much better than the Astros, BUT what IF.... Then what?
Do we lynch Z? Is it Wedgie's fault? Can we trade Morales already?
Life has this wonderful way of giving you unexpected scenarios...
......
Silentpadna and Dr. D have been pleasantly jousting with Benihana since about 2002; usually he's been about a 3 or a 4 on the 1-10 scale from |-- Cynic -- to -- Sunshine and Rainbows --| .
It's a treat to see him weighing in with his granite-steady point of view:
We're 3-4, and have only... Read More
Can't win a pennant in week one ... unless you play the 'Stros
Posted by jemanji on 04/07/13
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5 Comments
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=== Offense "Needs To Settle In" ===
Geoff Baker agrees with Eric Wedge that the offense has simply been missing its karma, missing its coherency, missing its collective beehive instinct.
They haven't quite found their balance point to grind this 2013 rail yet.
EXHIBIT A: several of you amigos pointed out that Michael Morse overswung during Sunday's game with RISP. You had the lead run, or tying run, or insurance run, in scoring position 2 or 3 different times, and Morse is well capable of lining an RBI hit to right field. But he was going for the 440-foot jack on every swing. Just bad... Read More
Bakery raises its prices ... hey, so did Starbucks
Posted by jemanji on 04/07/13
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=== Geoff Baker ===
Geoffy made an offhand comment, just a remark in a live chat, about the ongoing Who's Got The Biggest Blog debate. He talked a little smack, like he can learn more in 5 minutes in the clubhouse, than self-assured bloggers can in a month from watching on TV.
He didn't mean it in an absolute sense, and wasn't talking at all about the kind of analysis done on SSI. He was just flipping a little grief back at the chihuahuas who chew his ankles daily.
I shoulda known that. Sigh. I owed Baker more benefit of the doubt than that, and that put my "Five Minutes, Hunh?" post... Read More
... in blockbuster for 3 River Ave Blues authors
Posted by jemanji on 04/07/13
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6 Comments
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SABRMatt (aka ghost) has parachuted into the big league drop zone:
BTW all...you might be interested to know that I have taken an internship opportunity with the New York Yankees...data analyst intern...I start Friday...so wish me luck. :)
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And says,
The homily in today's mass seemed very apropos to my situation...the only thing that stopped me from actively seeking out this sort of opportunity in the past was fear of failing and thus proving my dreams of working in the game illusory...and that was the theme of the day. Fear as the great enemy of man in his quest to find peace and... Read More
Now as to the PWR tool...
Posted by jemanji on 04/06/13
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10 Comments
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In terms of bases gained and bases lost, the M's deserve to be 3-and-3. They've faced two contenders, on the road. Back away from the ledge, kiddies. The first six games have gone very well for a young team in search of an identity.
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Bill James once said, "baseball is about the strike zone." The Mariners' batting average isn't yet best in the league, but if this keeps up, it soon will be ....
Has it seemed to you like the M's are seeing the ball well? F/X backs up our suspicions.
When scouts refer to the HIT tool, they're talking about the ability to cover a pitch... Read More
Siggghhhhh
Posted by jemanji on 04/06/13
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11 Comments
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Thanks to F/X and Brooks Baseball, we don't have to guess.
Here is Jeff Nelson's strike zone vs LHB's for both teams on Saturday. There are three pitches outside the strike zone that he called strikes; all were called on behalf of White Sox pitchers.
Here is Nelson's strike zone vs RHB's for both teams on Saturday. There are three more pitches outside the strike zone, called strikes; all were called on behalf of White Sox pitchers.
That's just the introduction; you can take it from there. Nelson's strike zone was as tight as a drum ... in addition, he called many actual strikes as "... Read More
Dan Fogelberg "and the snow turned into rain" Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 04/04/13
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9 Comments
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Q. Is Brandon Maurer suspect, after getting splashed in the sixth inning there?
A. He's not, no. He remains an SSI Best Bet after losing a game. Fancy that.
A picture's worth 1,000 words, and there's nothing we're going to write that will take the place of a postgame victory dance. It will take a 7 ip 1 er 1 bb 7 k game to calm the bleachers' frayed nerves. But you want the analysis, so here y'go amig-Os.
I'm not in the mood either, but since the game haunted Dr. D, it might as well haunt you :- )
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Q. What happened?
A. Two things: first, Maurer pitched nervously, deer in the... Read More
Flyball pitchers in the cold, wet air
Posted by jemanji on 04/04/13
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5 Comments
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Maurer is the first Mariner starter to skip AA, into the Opening Day rotation, in 20 years. Back in the day this didn't used to be such a big hairy deal; Mark Langston and Alvin Davis did it at the same time. And tore up the American League. For the Mariners.
AA and AAA are the upper minors -- the pitcher-batter matchups include breaking balls in any count and located pitches throughout the game. Somebody would have to help me out here, as to whether this "must pitch AAA" is a Seattle Mariner thing, or a MLB(TM) thing.
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The M's game notes claim that the Mariners had the 2nd-... Read More
Bazooka'ed
Posted by jemanji on 04/03/13
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16 Comments
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=== Bazooka Joe ===
Where were you?, during Blake Griffin's double airball from the foul line. Whoops! First one slipped, man. Watch me, now, I got the laces here. I'm gonna MAKE this one. ... WHOOPS!
Saunders needs plus-plus command of his fastball; in this game he didn't even have mediocre command of his fastball. He'd fall behind 2-0, and he'd bear down to try to hit his spot, and then the ball would sail two feet wide and two feet high.
Since the fatball was useless, it underlined the fact that his curve is a minus pitch and his change is a minus pitch.
If he can pitch worse than... Read More
Desperately Seeking '95
Posted by jemanji on 04/03/13
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Here is our Flowers for Algernon post on Saunders, right before we signed him. EXEC SUM: he's not the prettiest pitcher to watch, but does have a lifetime ERA+ of 103.
As you know, he's a slight variation on Jason Vargas -- hyperlow BB rate, so when his K's bip up over 5.6 he can be a TOR for short stretches. Saunders isn't quite as good as Vargas, but on the other hand he was on a hot roll to close 2012. Figure a 10% chance a 5% chance that he's leaped a plateau, as Jamie Moyer did at about Saunders' age.
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Saunders hides the ball well, short-arming it like George Sherrill. ... Read More
Of outdated models and "crisis points"
Posted by jemanji on 04/03/13
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Q. Are we going to argue about John Jaso all year?
A. No, we're going to argue about WAR all year. If we are sabermetricians, we quite literally have no choice about that. Allow Dr. D to explain.
Bill James Online follows on SSI -- inadvertently -- in the way it blends discussion of life and baseball. Some amigos find it distracting to think about anything that is very far removed from AVG, HR, and RBI. Others find it stimulating, the way that baseball teaches us philosophical lessons that benefit us in real life.
For both parties, the internet has provided the ultimate Everybody... Read More
Critical Mass, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 04/02/13
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=== Gameflow ===
The umpire yelled, "Play Ball."
Jarrod Parker reared back and fired a bullet to Michael Saunders, 91 MPH, low and away, catching a good piece of the strike zone.
Michael Saunders directed his ki up the middle, reached out, and WHHAAACKKKED the ball down the 3B line for a clean single. Yoenis Cespedes did well to get over and cut it off quickly.
Saunders rounded first, smiled broadly, and tipped his cap to somebody in the stands. "Thanks for the tip on going the other way." He got set to work Parker for the stolen base.
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Jarrod Parker suddenly realized -- yes... Read More
WIRE TO WIRE, bab-eh
Posted by jemanji on 04/02/13
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3 Comments
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Mr. WBC-san fretted, and kicked his shoes at the ground, and tried to find his footing. His fastball routinely missed Jesus Montero's mitt by one foot, by two feet, by THREE feet. Dr. D lost count of the 2-1 and 2-0 situations that Iwakuma faced.
Iwakuma's foot plant was off, and his balance was wayyyy off, and he couldn't hit the broad side of a barn. Dr. D watched the display painfully. He'd just written up three articles, guaranteeing M's fans that Iwakuma-san was good to go for 2013.
But in the shout box, amigos were enjoying the Go -- a 2-hit, 0-walk result. In the booth, Mike... Read More
Now, the DL, that's another story entirely
Posted by jemanji on 04/02/13
7 Comments
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The general consensus is that Iwakuma could be overexposed this season; he only has 16 starts under his belt. The concern, on general principle, is sound.
In this specific case, it says here that there is NO concern about overexposure. None whatsoever. Veteran WBC star Iwakuma, if healthy, has the same chance of a cruddy season as does (say) Doug Fister.
Tell you exactly why we say that:
James has pointed out that Tommy John extreme-precision, extreme-change speed pitchers (Marcum, Moyer, Iwakuma, etc.) "will be effective as long as they can raise their elbows above their... Read More
Sounds like a blockbuster comic book movie
Posted by jemanji on 04/02/13
9 Comments
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=== Iwakuma vs A's ===
Probably you don't remember much of what SSI wrote last year on Mr. WBC-san. You know how I figure that? 'cause I don't remember much of it, either.
.........
Here's an article comparing him to Shaun Marcum. Both are comfortably over 7 K's per game, comfortably in the 2's for walk rate, and average for gopher rate. Both have very, VERY unimpressive straight fastballs. That creates (2) two right hand pitchers in baseball who fit that simple description.
Erasmo Ramirez would be the third pitcher in the description, if he threw 88 MPH. Erasmo is, theoretically... Read More
Eurocentrism run amok
Posted by jemanji on 04/02/13
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"Grandmaster Nimzovich, I just don't understand your play sometimes." - Eugene A. Znosko-Borovsky, ca. 1920, referring to Nimzovich's odd square-blockade style
"Of course not. Have you ever seen a monkey toying with a watch?" - Aron Nimzovich
"YOWCH." - Dr. D
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=== Neuro-Linguistic MalProgramming, Dept. ===
In L. Ron Hubbard's Battlefield 3000, the universe is under the thumb of the Frankenstein-like Psychlos, whose mathematics have granted them the secrets of teleportation, high tech in general and total domination.
The universe desperately fights to unlock the secrets of Pyschlo... Read More
Blue Eyes White Dragon, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 04/01/13
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This legendary dragon is a powerful engine of destruction. Virtually invincible, very few have faced this awesome creature and lived to tell the tale.
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Dr. D is sleep-deprived enough that he almost favored you with Algernon posts. Count yourselves fortunate, and ignore the drunken monkey text fu.
For those who have missed out on the Yug-i-Oh trading card game -- such as, um, me -- each card is printed with stock attribute stats. You get a title, a level, an ATK number, a DEF number, a monster type, etc.
There is one standard aspect of each card that carries no meaning within a... Read More
One of yer all-time great 2 run outings, eh
Posted by jemanji on 04/01/13
12 Comments
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A lineup can finish with two runs because --- > the opposing pitcher was okay, and the hitters were awful. This was the case, not a few times, during the M's 513-run seasons.
Or, a lineup can finish with two runs because --- > the hitters were pretty good, but the opposing pitcher was sensational. This was the case, not a few times, during Randy Johnson's career, especially in the playoffs. It's almost always the case whenever anybody manages to score on Felix Hernandez.
Or, a lineup can finish with two runs because --- > it was unlucky. Or, because it was lucky. Or, for a lot... Read More