December 2013
Friends With the Monster Under My Bed, dept.
Posted by jemanji on 12/31/13
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12 Comments
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L.A. papers are selling the Kemp-Seattle trades, hot and heavy. There is nothing sourced in any of these that I've seen. However, LA does have a crowded outfield and a hole at 3B, so ...
It's one thing to go through and try to calculate Net WAR Values in a vacuum. It's another thing to talk about real-world "player pairs." It's a third thing to apply all these ideas to a specific roster. Let's do the latter.
This is just a 5-minute scanthrough, or "WAY DRAFT" as they say at Boeing. Create your own drafts off of it. "WAY DRAFTs" are best for seeing the large, inescapable conclusions,... Read More
A Dynamic Duo … in Seattle?!
Posted by jemanji on 12/31/13
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Q. What is the BEST case scenario in a Matt Kemp deal?
A. That he returns to decent health, and hits anything like he did in 2011-12 at ages 26-27. Volume stats in 2012 are prorated:
Season
AVG
OBP
SLG
HR
RBI
R
OPS+
RC/27
2011
.324
.399
.586
39
126
115
172
8.7
2012
.303
.367
.538
35
104
110
147
7.0
Those are insane Runs per 27 Outs numbers, amigo. Especially for a power hitter who lets the bat fly - high bases-per-outs figures come from the BB experts. You get up near 8 runs, as a cleanup hitter, you are bringin' the PAAAAaaainnnn.
David Ortiz' lifetime is 7.6; Prince Fielder's... Read More
We wish, bro, we wish
Posted by jemanji on 12/30/13
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2 Comments
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Q. Is Cruz worth a draft pick, even if he plays for free?
A. There is such a thing as an MLB Top 100 Prospects list, on which Taijuan Walker and James Paxton reside.
There is another thing, the Amateur Draft list, on which Josh Fields resides. Those are two different things. The Draft List is a lesser thing.
Here are the last twenty years' worth of #20 overall picks:
Year
Player
Remark
2010
Kolbrin Virtek
2009
Chad Jenkins
2008
Josh Fields
M's
2007
Chris Withrow
2006
Chris Parmelee
2005
Mark Pawalek
2004
Trevor Plouffe
2003
Chad Cordero
Three good RP seasons
2002
Denard... Read More
Guesses built on Speculation built on Conjecture
Posted by jemanji on 12/30/13
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3 Comments
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This from MLBTR:
Major League Baseball has asked the Rakuten Golden Eagles to submit in writing an assurance that the club does not have a side deal with Masahiro Tanaka, Bill Shaikin and Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times report. Rakuten has not yet responded to MLB's letter.
Late last week, Shaikin and Hernandez reported that MLB would make sure that Tanaka was not donating to Rakuten. A donation would violate MLB's deal with NPB, which stipulates that Japanese teams not receive any money beyond a player's posting fee, which has a $20MM limit.
Rakuten's president, Yozo Tachibana,... Read More
The "reward" entitlement mentality
Posted by jemanji on 12/30/13
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26 Comments
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Today at BJOL:
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Everyone talks about average salaries; wouldn't median salary be a better indicator? Or is that what the media mean when they say "average," and they're just being sloppy? I expect the medial salary is quite a bit lower than the average, as it would take quite a few minimum salary players to balance out each ARod or Pujols, etc.
Asked by: DanaKing
Answered: 12/30/2013
A better indicator of what?
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As to large salaries for athletes and movie stars. I always thought it was better for the performers to get the money than the owners. No one has ever paid to see an... Read More
Rather than spreading around a bunch of comments ...
Posted by Spectator on 12/27/13
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1 Comments
1) I think Jack Z is going to try to sneak in one more starting pitcher. He will do it by scrimping on bullpen (Danny Farquhar) and backup catcher (Jesus Sucre). Zduriencik loves to bring up Sucre unprompted in his interviews.
2) My own personal idiosyncratic rating system had Farquhar as the 8th-most-effective pitcher in all of baseball: Greg Holland, Koji Uehara, Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel, Aroldis Chapman, Mark Melancon, Jason Grilli, Farquhar.
If you look only at Farquhar's second half (when he was pitching in the 9th), his .044 ISO-against was better than any of those guys... Read More
And what could be a finer death ... than one in a mosh pit?!
Posted by jemanji on 12/27/13
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12 Comments
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The Right Yujin, Dept.
As usual, the vibe from inside the industry makes 29 kinds of sense to SSI. This from MLB Trade Rumors:
The Mariners will also be "a factor" for Tanaka, a baseball official tells Roger Rubin of the New York Daily News. “They have a following in Japan. They enjoyed what they had when Ichiro (Suzuki) was on the team. They want the chance for moves like getting [Robinson] Cano to pay off. And they envision [Felix] Hernandez paired with Tanaka at the top of the rotation," the official said.
You might be surprised at the tendency for large Fortune 500 organizations to... Read More
Poetry in motion, babe
Posted by jemanji on 12/27/13
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16 Comments
Scouting On Site
Super-NPB-Poster Taro sees Tanaka as an impact starter in the majors, "but on the Kuroda, Iwakuma level" rather than on the Yu Darvish level. Taro recommends Kenta Maeda as a more cost-efficient choice, capable of pitching at 90% the success level for 30% of the price.
IceBreakerX, who also lives in Japan, says not so fast on Maeda. He's quite short, as was Ian Snell for instance, and much more of a roll of the dice. Though a worthy roll.
Dr D's quick takes?
............
Check out this super-slo-mo of Maeda-san's delivery. The first pitch is normal speed, but the... Read More
Mousing around the champs' evaluations
Posted by jemanji on 12/27/13
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Here is Ron Shandler's rotisserie valuation of the big SP targets left. We use these because they are (1) objective, and (2) one place where you can count on RISK being very carefully factored in to the whole package.
In fact these values are taken from Ron's "Portfolio 3 Plan," which is an entire theory of Rotisserie based on controlling downside and risk.
This list isn't complete, but samples the terrain so you can get a feel. Bear in mind that in classic roto, batters are valued considerably more highly than pitchers are. There are good reasons for that, and it's a good reason for you... Read More
Feel the rage
Posted by jemanji on 12/27/13
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7 Comments
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Grant Balfour, $19 Roto
... here, this one is worth a 3B camera angle. :- )
Fascinating to see BaseballHQ so bullish on Balfour. HQ says,
While Ctl has been rising, big jump in Dom and plummeting FB% have led to his success. xERA and H% say the
ERA should be higher, but the skills remains strong. LI argues that managers have long liked using him in high leverage
situations; no reason to think that won't continue, wherever he ends up.
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By LI he means "leverage index," which shows that the base/out/inning pressure, as such, on Balfour did NOT increase when he became a closer:
Year
Leverage... Read More
Merry Christmas, Metal Gentlemen … from yer M's hard rock cafe
Posted by jemanji on 12/24/13
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16 Comments
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Q. Franklin Gutierrez, Super Sub? I thought Dr. D was Guti's eternal opponent?
A. Funny thing. Back when they were giving him +6 WAR and four-year deals, I thought the emperor had no clothes. But now that we're talking about him as a 4th outfielder extraordinaire, I'm super stoked.
The 116- Mariners had two main substitutes, Mark McLemore and Stan Javier. They both played so cotton-pickin' ever-lovin' grrrrrrrr-eat that Lou didn't give even 100 at-bats to any other sub.*
*the backup catcher played a little. But it's amazing how few AB's went to anybody else on the bench. Kain't... Read More
64 days till M's vs Padres
Posted by jemanji on 12/24/13
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3 Comments
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Just got my Forecaster. Order yours here -- if you choose the auto-renew, they'll send you one a year, and you can download the .pdf immediately. By the way, I had some problems figuring out how to get my own .pdf downloaded, and their customer service was super great. Lynda Knezovich e-mailed back and forth with me five times, making sure I was squared away. :: golfclap ::
We was gonna hit the sack, but ... what's an Xmas morning without yer Hot Stove e-zine. As you know, we live to serve.
So here are three of the cheeriest things in the Forecaster. Great with java and jinjerbread... Read More
Light bulb of the day
Posted by jemanji on 12/23/13
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At BJOL this morning, James brought up a new paradigm -- the issue of "Natural" and "Conditional" effects.
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The current use of closers is not as irrational as models may make it look because these are human beings. I have managed a lot of different types of workers over the years. In general, people are a lot more effective when they know what is going to be expected of them. A closer who can get into a routine, pace himself, watch the score and get himself physically and mentally ready as necessary may be a more effective pitcher. Trying to identify the highest leverage use puts him in... Read More
Bet you a donut
Posted by jemanji on 12/22/13
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13 Comments
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Q. Is Michael Saunders a legitimate defensive center fielder?
A. I think that he is, yes.
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Q. What are your qualifications for saying so?
A. My qualifications are totally unimpeachable. Thusly:
1. I have a keyboard and a blog.
2. I watch more games from the 3rd deck than any of you mooks. And have been doing it since, literally, the days of Ruppert Jones.
Take it or leave it :- ) but I believe that Michael Saunders is a plus center fielder, perhaps about as good as Franklin Gutierrez was during his mythological "death to flying things" era.
Saunders' "glide" is actually very... Read More
Bring it, bah-eh
Posted by jemanji on 12/22/13
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4 Comments
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Q. Supposing that Michael Saunders WERE a +0 UZR center fielder. That means ... What. to me?
A. It would mean that you have a +3 WAR center fielder, in house, first year arb eligible. And that's if he doesn't improve with the stick.
With no other changes, other than better defensive charting and better pitching, your young CF might "suddenly" emerge as a Kyle Seager-like asset.
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Q. 3 WAR, how do you figure.
A. Well, he already scored +2.4 WAR in 2012 -- 139 games -- after docking him significantly for defense.
He's got a 108 and 106 OPS+ the last two years. A center fielder who hits... Read More
Splitters vs Splitters, dept.
Posted by jemanji on 12/19/13
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5 Comments
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Q. Why should we care about Kendrys Morales? The Mariners have five big slow guys who hit as good as him.
A. Actually not.
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Q. How so?
A. Sometimes, we sabermetricians get snow-blinded by RATE stats. Sometimes, we can gain in the "sense of proportion" department by considering VOLUME stats.
Here is a table of the Mariners' leading hitters, the last five (5) years, by Runs Created.
Seattle Runs Created leaders, 2009-13 inclusive
Year
Player
Runs Created
2013
Seager
89
2013
KENDRYS MORALES
86
2009 (!)
Franklin Gutierrez
79
2012
Seager
77
2009
Jose Lopez (!!)
77
2009
Russell Branyan... Read More
far-off "boom" sound imminent
Posted by jemanji on 12/19/13
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6 Comments
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FOREST for the TREES, dept. One of the game's General Managers told Peter Gammons that he thinks Kendrys Morales will sit out until after the June draft (when he can then shop his services without the draft pick attached).
TREES for the FOREST, dept. Mike Petriello, at Fangraphs, does a superb job of going down the line, on a club-by-club basis, and demonstrating that no team is a feasible match for Kendrys right now.
CHAOS THEORY, dept. Of course, you never know when something weird will happen, and the electric fence will go down, loosing the velociraptors to chew on your keister. ... Read More
If it's hard … well, you know what to do
Posted by jemanji on 12/19/13
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9 Comments
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Q. What is Rosenthal's point?
A. The exec sum of Rosenthal's column, would run something like ...
Mariners + Robinson Cano + $240M = 2 sandwiches (short of a picnic basket)
Unless the Mariners are planning an all-out charge up Hamburger Hill
Right now the Mariners are saying "ahhhhh ... fuhgeddaboudit. Oh well whatever nevermind. MLB free agents cost a LOT!"
The Mariners are probably just lying, and fully intend to spend a lot of $$ to justify Cano (unless they really are Froot Loops)
If the Mariners aren't lying, and "changed their minds" about Hamburger Hill, after signing Cano?!,... Read More
I could get used to this, dept.
Posted by jemanji on 12/16/13
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29 Comments
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Ryan Divish's lineup du jour features 1 Dustin Ackley, CF and 2 Kyle Seager, 3B in front of our new Monsters of the Midway. Works for Dr. D.
Rick sez, in the Shout Box,
rick82: I'm ready to anoint Ackley as our lead off hitter in 2014. Since his callup from Tacoma last season, Dustin has run a .285/.354./404 line in 256 PAs. Put him in LF or CF, wherever it works best, but I have no problem with him in CF if we want to put lumber in the corners. That catch he made in Houston was enough to show me he has the speed to play the position. His arm OK for CF, so long as he can make catches like... Read More
The indicators are strangely Jaso-like (and how often does one get to use the term "Jaso-like"?)
Posted by Spectator on 12/13/13
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11 Comments
Two years ago the Mariners acquired a hitter from a Florida-based team who had just completed an uninspiring year: .224/.298/.354 slash line | 84 OPS+ | .292 wOBA. In other words, a pretty ugly season for a guy not known for defense.
And yet ...
He had a very strong minor-league track record, including, particularly, the kind of plate skills that one usually sees only with guys with a strong chance of MLB success.
He had established a baseline of major-league success in a significant amount of playing time.
His down year combined injuries and a sharp dip in BABIP below what had been his... Read More
Media jumpin' off, players jumpin' in
Posted by jemanji on 12/11/13
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4 Comments
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Q. Does SSI agree that Corey Hart, Michael Morse, Nelson Cruz are very similar players?
A. SSI does agree with that, yes. Along with Jayson Werth, Josh Willingham, and the like. Defining characteristics:
Right handed
Huge bodies
Aggressive on the first pitch (Richie Sexson, Jay Buhner, Cecil Fielder don't qualify)
.275/.325/.500 type profiles
0.40 type eye ratios
Good plate coverage, professional approach (they ain't Steve Balboni; they can drive a pitch to right-center)
Not supremely talented (Albert Belle, Danny Tartabull, Jose Bautista don't qualify) ...
... But these guys can RAKE... Read More
Coins of the realm? Mine are "runs"
Posted by jemanji on 12/11/13
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1 Comments
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There is an interesting Q-and-A today at Bill James Online. Somebody asked his opinion as to why NBA players don't use the underhand free throw, like Rick Barry used, to shoot 90% plus. Especially since there seem to be so many NBA players nowadays with Shaq-like free throw percentages.
Bill answered very charitably, and studiously avoided the answer "Because everybody would laugh at a 280-lb. center flipping the ball up there like a girl."
I think we underestimate the "macho" factor in American sports. We're told "the fastball is the coin of the realm" in American baseball and why is... Read More
The fur's really flyin' :- )
Posted by jemanji on 12/09/13
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39 Comments
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I've spent 12 years writing that --- > the Seattle Mariners' attempts to win a championship were severely handicapped by Howard Lincoln and Chuck Armstrong. Not primarily by Mike Hargrove, not by Bill Bavasi, not by all of the men in the carousel under them, but by Howard Lincoln and Chuck Armstrong -- and the weird ownership power structure that has given them free reign to play George Steinbrenner.
For about the first 6 years of that, DOV/SSI was writing it alone. Then Geoff Baker arrived, and slowly he started talking more and more about the absentee owner, and Lincoln, and... Read More
Historically, I mean - how is a player like him valued by his team?
Posted by Gordon Gross on 12/08/13
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18 Comments
Debating the potential trade of Taijuan Walker brings up arguments about future WAR/$, the risks of young pitchers staying healthy, the worth of David Price...
But let's go back to one of Doc's original questions: has anyone ever traded a front-line pitcher of Taijuan's caliber at this stage? Nobody's arguing whether Walker is in the 2014 rotation if he stays, right? So: a frontline pitcher, ready to start for your team, gets traded. Let's not worry about what might have happened in 1962; prospect evaluation has changed drastically. Why don't we start in 1990 or so?
Coincidentally, The... Read More
Quick reaction
Posted by jemanji on 12/07/13
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29 Comments
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Don't have much time, but ... that piece was a loooooong time coming. Thanks Geoffy!
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Q. Does the piece indicate, to you, that Zduriencik is "a bully"?
A. Not by F-500 standards, no ... by baseball standards, apparently, he uses his authority in a way less gentle than they'd like.
Now, bear in mind, Dr. D hates bullies, hates men who pick fights with smaller men and run from fair fights. Where there is real bullying, he's the first one to speak his mind. But that's not what we read, in this case, not based on the content of Geoff's article.
.......
Jack Tatum, in They Call Me Assassin... Read More
Do you believe in mulligans? ... Yes!
Posted by Spectator on 12/07/13
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6 Comments
David Price is a very good pitcher, but it appears the "price" (ugh) of obtaining him from Tampa is Taijuan Walker.
No need to recapitulate the various arguments made by Doc and others against such a move.
Instead, I want to propose a different tack.
For the cost of a second-round draft pick and a free-agent contract, Ubaldo Jimenez may be every bit as good.
And the gap does not appear to be so great it ought to take giving up Taijuan Walker to fill it.
***
What you have to believe is:
-- Jimenez struggled with a move to Cleveland
-- He struggled with his mechanics
-- He struggled with... Read More
TINSTAAPP? Used to be true. It isn't any more.
Posted by jemanji on 12/06/13
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28 Comments
The Bad
I was getting set to write something about the Price/Taijuan deal, and that something was "Hey. Don't forget that Taijuan has a good chance of getting injured." And by "a good chance" we meant, like 40-80%.
So we were set to conclude with, "Hey, Dr. D wouldn't deal Taijuan for Price, but if the M's do that, we're maybe trading an injury for a superstar. Don't cry too hard."
A funny thing happened 'twixt the cup and the lip.
We googled up Victor Wang's original work on this, just to give you a quick link-er-oo. Wang added up all the WAR from the Baseball America Top 100 Prospect... Read More
so many fish, so few roster spots - what are they worth at market?
Posted by Gordon Gross on 12/06/13
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6 Comments
This is the part where my love for the current Ms minors (and pre-arb guys) will probably overwhelm you. I have trouble not cheering for these guys, and that hasn't always been easy in prior seasons. Back when TJ Bohn and Greg Dobbs were the best we had to offer it was a little tough to polish that turd, but now? When I say we've got bait to trade, I ain't kidding. Our top-15 or so obliterates most every system. Just numbers 10-15 could make most of a top 5 for several other orgs.
I give you:
Seager - 7.5 WAR in 2 and a half years, still getting better
Ackley - 4.5 WAR in the same, while... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/06/13
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13 Comments
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"Is he worth the cash?" dominates the discussion. The 'net is buried in hair-fine calculations of Cano's ROI. Here's a sample, in which the author breathlessly counts down the year-by-year return, just pushing Cano across the finish line with a $2.5M surplus. Yippee! Congratulations Mariners! You win the deal!
Should this question dominate the discussion?
Let's suppose that, after 2013, the $240M has directly returned (say) $190M worth of Cano bases gained and bases lost. Does that resolve the indirect issues, the strategic issues, that a CEO must resolve?
.............
We are all... Read More
"Nice Night at the Ballpark," Aug 1 2001 - Dec 6 2013 RIP
Posted by jemanji on 12/06/13
Posted to blog
8 Comments
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The question, "Were the Seattle Mariners smart or dumb to sign Cano?," is an interesting one. It's not the ONLY question I want to talk about, though.
There are other things to talk about, in baseball, besides "Should I be the general manager instead of Jack Zduriencik." For example, you could talk about:
How would the 2014 Seattle Mariners win 90 games
What are the M's chances of getting Masuhiro Tanaka
How does Kyle Seager look as a #4 hitter
How good is the Mariners' bullpen going forward
In what way is the M's $2 billion TV deal related to their drive for celebrity players
Would you... Read More
"M's are deeeeeep"
Posted by jemanji on 12/06/13
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7 Comments
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Not that MLB Tonight has any markets cornered on baseball wisdom ... :- ) but it IS a nice lens into the way East Coast media is looking at things. And that media is hooked into baseball's GM network. So it's worth a look.
The host asked Joel Sherman a question, and it was the very question that you and I would ask. "With the recent disappointments in Seattle, Jesus Montero, Justin Smoak, etc., are their prospects devalued?"
Sherman said, no way. "I just talked to an executive about that and he said 'The Mariners are DEEP. They have a lot of kids, and you're going to like SOMEBODY they... Read More
Domino-falling time
Posted by Spectator on 12/06/13
Posted to blog
1 Comments
First domino: the "pushover" reputation.
Maybe the supposed showdown between the aging exec and the music mogol was all overblown (and it seems that both sides blinked), but, if nothing else, the Mariners somehow managed to both get the big fish and bolster their "manhood" (if folks are still allowed to use that word) at the same time.
In other words, they got it done, but not by wildly and desparately bidding against themselves. Or, if they did, the little dust-up made it look more like they didn't.
Second domino: second base.
So Nick Franklin was ticketed there, supplanting Dustin... Read More
Twelve years on, payback on the ARod karma
Posted by jemanji on 12/05/13
Posted to blog
9 Comments
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In the Shout Box, we've all gone from "wry smiles" to "playing with the Robinson Cano batting orders." HEH!!
.....
In this 2011 article, right after Matt Kemp signed an 8-year contract, Bill James answers a question "How likely is it that Matt Kemp will be an All-Star player in his 8th year?"
James answered it by creating a pool of player comps. His first cut created 956, and he cut that to 472 by reducing the RC/27 range to 6-11 runs. He spiralled in to 370, then to 170 players .... he whittled away, using judgment and intuition to create the comp pool, until he had 43 players he... Read More
Vertigo Ahead
Posted by jemanji on 12/05/13
Posted to blog
2 Comments
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This isn't analysis; it's just something I thought was fun to look at.
If you go to Robinson Cano's b-ref.com page, and scroll down to Similarity Scores, then over where it says 30. David Wright, you can click the little C and bring up Cano's age-based similarity players. That page will show you what ten Cano-like players ... Ryne Sandberg, George Brett, Joe Torre ... DID in their PAST careers, up through age 30.
Then you click where it says "Display totals from age ... to end of career," pick the 31 of course, and you get this page. It's an amusingly sad picture of what those 10... Read More
Taking a sharp pencil to the STRATEGIC questions
Posted by jemanji on 12/05/13
Posted to blog
7 Comments
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Bill James Online, $3 per month. Reason #162 to subscribe: we specifically asked him whether he minded us re-printing his premium material, with a re-direct to his site, and he shrugged, "I'm good with it. Thanks." Don't try THAT at your local car dealer.
Today's subject is far-reaching, with monumental implications:
...........
Hey Bill … In Seattle there is an ongoing debate as to when a team "should" make a winter push for contention, as opposed to rebuilding over the long term.
Boston went from 93 losses in 2012 to the championship in 2013; many teams have gone from 90+ losses... Read More
At least, in Dr. D's opinion
Posted by jemanji on 12/05/13
Posted to blog
2 Comments
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Here is one argument against trading Taijuan for David Price:
Taijuan will have an ERA of 4.00 to 5.00 next year
That means, 15 to 35 runs worse than Price (which is 2-4 WAR after innings/relievers come in)
Price will cost $29M more than Taijuan, the next two years, for only 4-8 WAR more than Taijuan
But you could buy more than 4-8 WAR for $29M the next two years (e.g. Matt Garza)
And that hasn't even touched the issue of Price's 2016-19
QED
Based on that argument, presumably, USSM is running a poll. 75% of readers would reject a trade of Taijuan for Price, even steven. (SSI readers are,... Read More
At least, in Dr. D's opinion
Posted by jemanji on 12/05/13
Posted to blog
9 Comments
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Taijuan and K-Pax each have a great shot at --- > 4-5 WAR territory. Very soon, or even immediately. A PRE-ARB player that you see as a LEGIT STAR? Him, you don't trade.
* ceteris paribus.
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Was it 2003?, when Pat Gillick was in the trade market, trying to apply shock paddles to the last few breaths of the ossified Veteran Contender he'd built.
Gillick shouted it from the rooftops, for public and private consumption, and left himself absolutely no bridges back across the water. He said that there were four players in the Seattle Mariner organization that he would not trade for... Read More
Ain't NY, but...
Posted by jemanji on 12/04/13
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12 Comments
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Once again: we'll all believe it when we see it. :- )
Twice again: it's Hot Stove League. What did you want to talk about, the Seahawks? ::pfft::
......
An interesting issue comes up: would you ever see a high-profile Team LeBron scenario sign with the Mariners, even if the Mariners were the only team offering a trophy contract? Or would the endorsement situation -- not the winning situation, but the endorsement situation -- preclude that?
I don't know the answer. Here are a few thoughts that come to mind. Hopefully you've got better than this :- )
My own instincts run to two basic... Read More
Yes, he is one of the elite offensive players in the game
Posted by Spectator on 12/03/13
Posted to blog
Could they pull the trigger on Robinson Cano? Yes.
ESPNworld is now clued into the fact that only Felix has a long-term deal tying up Seattle money.
Would they pull the trigger on Cano? Looks like it.
As Doc says, they've been looking for the breakthrough free agent deal. Jack-Z meets Jay-Z ... it's Destiny.
Should they pull the trigger on Cano? OK, now the rubber hits the road.
***
Stat highlight reel:
-- Cano has been one of the very best hitters in baseball for four years running.
-- During that stretch
==== his low OPS is .882
==== his low SLG is .516
==== his low ISO is .202... Read More
Most Influential People, dept.
Posted by jemanji on 12/03/13
Posted to blog
20 Comments
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Reasons the M's Might NOT Close Escrow
I think that everybody on SSI, every single poster, is skeptical about ever seeing a Robinson Cano press conference here. Off site, it's worse, of course.
I'm no different.
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Reason #1 that the M's MIGHT Close Escrow
The Yankees appear to be absolutely resolved about not giving Robinson Cano a deal anywhere near $200 million.
Just for instance, they fought a bitter war with Derek Jeter about money, were totally prepared to lose him, twice. They are now treating Robinson Cano -- in their minds -- more fairly than they treated Jeter. And we both... Read More
Can't go home again, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 12/02/13
Posted to blog
6 Comments
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Over the last three years, Doug Fister has the 9th-highest WAR total in baseball. Per that metric, he's added more value than Cole Hamels, Zack Greinke or Gio Gonzalez. He's way ahead of Jon Lester, Matt Cain, and C.J. Wilson, and he's equal to David Price.
Going by FIP, Doug Fister has been the #5 starter in the American League the last three years. He's behind Felix, Verlander, Price, and Sale. Ahead of everybody else, including CC Sabathia, James Shields, Yu Darvish, etc.
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The Nationals apparently nabbed Fister for (about) the price of Erasmo Ramirez, Charlie Furbush, and (... Read More
Change of Perspective, dept.
Posted by jemanji on 12/02/13
Posted to blog
13 Comments
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Blue Quadrant
Right on cue!, babe. If you wanted an example of Blue-Only analysis, here y'go amig-O.
This paradigm, taken to its extremes, assumes that other viewpoints are not only mistaken about, but actually oblivious to the Blue-Only material. This blog proceeds from the assumption that Jack Zduriencik literally does not know that 0.0 WAR is replacement level, and then proceeds with its excoriation of Zduriencik for refusing to learn the basics about baseball analysis.
At this point (ten years on) there is only one thing I would add: nobody in the real world gets to act like that. ... Read More
Stoploss, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 12/02/13
Posted to blog
7 Comments
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One of the things that Green-Quadrant thinkers focus on, is --- > safety.
You want to avoid the DOWNside scenario. A CEO may have several lawyers on his staff, all of whose primary function is to keep the CEO out of jail. Boeing has a Quality Assurance department, naturally, and they spend a penny or two to make sure that planes don't fall out of the sky.
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Yellow Quadrants, Theorems, Axioms and 0.0 WAR, Dept.
Fangraphs takes it as an AXIOM that a major league ballclub can return 0.0 WAR, at any roster slot, merely by being competent.
ax * i * om (noun) a statement or proposition... Read More