December 2014
More on hitters 10-13
Posted by jemanji on 12/31/14
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The Counselor elevates our usual shtick to higher courts. Thusly:
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A platoon player is a benchie by a different name. Every team has a four man bench, except the one that McClendon manages; it has a three man bench. If there is going to be a platoon, the player should be part of double coverage of up the middle defense, since that is necessary anyway.
Catcher platoons are ideal. This is because catcher is too physically demanding to play every day. So if a team can set up two catchers with a platoon advantage, this is all gravy.
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Fo' sho'. Wasn't it the Red Sox who, about a... Read More
Shims and sims, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 12/31/14
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IceX wanted to know, are there any studies that tell us what we can expect from Ruggiano and Smith? Everybody else chirped in, Ya, gimme gimme! :- )
Any such work would be original research, I'm pretty sure. Apparently G-Money is going to take a crack at it. Kewl.
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In experimental design, the nature of the problem in this kind of issue is to "isolate the variable," so to speak.
If 100 selected patients have a certain kind of leukemia and 50 are given a tyrosene kinase inhibitor, and 50 not ... then by observing them we can at least get an idea of what the medicine is doing.
BUT... Read More
We'll take about 31 of these in 2015
Posted by jemanji on 12/30/14
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16 Comments
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Discussion thread :- )
Taro has been arguing for Seth Smith since before Dr. D was arguing for Felix Hernandez. G-Money wasn't far behind, as we recall.
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Ron Shandler sez -- Baseball Forecaster for sale here; you can download the .pdf right away --
Mildly surprising: he hit in SD. Reversed skills decline, was able to hold down a defensive position.
Not surprising: New manager kept him away from LHP, in line with most of his career.
Even though 2H seemed rough, plate skills remained, and HctX and PX call for continued pop in 2015.
For those who just joined us, "Hard contact... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/29/14
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27 Comments
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Dr. D did an awesome piece last week, in which he found that Marshawn Lynch is one of the best Seahawks.
The most likely reason for this is that other players can't tackle Lynch, despite an Arizona fan who blogged (yes, he did) that "any decent high school player" could have brought down Lynch on the sideline of Quake v2.0. Any decent high school player who ever lived, as we know, would have been airlifted by chopper to see if they could get him to the hospital in time.
The Think Tank bubbled, percolated, and agreed unanimously that Lynch is indeed good, and that the Seahawks would find... Read More
Yes, Seattle is one of them
Posted by Gordon Gross on 12/27/14
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As we talk about the Ms potentially climbing into the AL West driver's seat and taking aim at the playoffs, I gazed at a team that was us just a few years ago and wondered at the changes.
Mariners, meet Brewers. They used to be the Seattle Pilots, so I guess one good theft deserved another.
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First, a (more recent) history lesson:
Zduriencik's run as the grand poobah of the Brewers farm from the 2000-2008 drafts netted them Corey Hart, J.J. Hardy (later traded for Carlos Gomez), Prince Fielder, Tom Wilhelmsen, Rickie Weeks, Yovani Gallardo, Lorenzo Cain (who is what we... Read More
I-5 traffic jam getting more and more honk-able
Posted by jemanji on 12/26/14
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26 Comments
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The TNT does its usual (thematic, coherent) "article" on the roster battles impending.
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#5 SP
Reducing the fraction 4/14, as it were, to 2/7 ... we're told that Lloyd McClendon considers J.A. Happ to be a given, although he's probably the M's seventh-best starter. This is undoubtedly affected by politics. It might also be affected by Happ's 69:18 control ratio in the second half last year.
Since K-Pax is obviously a given too, that leaves Roenis Elias -vs- Taijuan -vs- Danny Hultzen, who fly under the radar until he casually twirls 22 scoreless innings in March.
Normally, MLB "code"... Read More
Sense and sensibilities, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 12/26/14
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2 Comments
Here there be sports-political commentary. You've been "warned." Dr. D wouldn't want to deflower your virgin ears. :- )
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Biology Rick sez,
New appreciation for Lynch.
His thirst for battle, and desire to pulverize his opponents, fuels so much of what this team does. There is this "How dare you enter the field of battle with us. Who do you think you are?" Attitude.
Remember the fit the media had when those Marines whizzed on dead Taliban? That is what Lynch's crotch grab was in football terms. The NFL fines him, and the football paparazzi allow them to collect by asking him questions he... Read More
Dr. D never met a goofy camera angle he didn't like
Posted by jemanji on 12/25/14
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Spectator sez that Nelson Cruz reminds his seismo gear of Reggie Sanders. The Labs sign off on this cheery idea. Sanders "crushed his age 34 to 37 seasons," sez Jim, so Cruz' contract runs out at precisely the right time. Good thing. We wouldn't want the M's suits having to put bricks into their toilet tanks to save on water. Times are tight all around.
Reggie Sanders was a right-hand hitter who batted .265ish, drew 60 walks and fanned 140 times per year, and slugged .500ish. In other words, he couldn't have been more different from Nelson Cruz.
He wasn't as naturally big and strong... Read More
Where did it say we could drop Country Breakfast to clear cap room?
Posted by jemanji on 12/25/14
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6 Comments
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This MLB Trade Rumors' article is fun. As is always the case, the comments are even more fun.
(And as is currently the case, no baseball comments thread could ever be as fun as a NinersNation thread entitled "It Is Time for the Airing of Grievances." Of which the Seahawks' rampage is number one, of course.
The injuries have been a gigantic buzz kill
And seattle’s success causes me to be dependant on prescription pills
Official Shawn Oakman Draft Bandwagon Driver
by KU-NINER on Dec 23, 2014 | 6:54 PM up reply
I thought with Mebane out they would start to fall
But besides him... Read More
Prospero ano y felicidad
Posted by jemanji on 12/24/14
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1 Comments
As you know, we live to serve :- )
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This last Thanksgiving, we rejoiced in the fact that the Seattle Mariners were doing their level best to nab one off this list of Stars:
Justin Upton
Nelson Cruz
Matt Kemp
Yoenis Cespedes
Evan Gattis
In retrospect, how'd we do? Lessee. Had we rather have
The 1-year rental at the cost of Hultzen, Marte, Tank, and a sweetener
The guy with arthritis in two hips
The blingage and the 104 OPS+
The kid with Nelson Cruz' slash line, -10 percent, in two partial seasons, spotted?
We got the guy with the 173 Power Index, the healthy and proven guy, for four years,... Read More
All we want is a Star for Xmas
Posted by jemanji on 12/24/14
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14 Comments
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Since the 1960's, the idea of the "Elo Rating System" has dominated tournament chess. It has percolated from there into soccer, into college football, into video games, and so on.
It's a rating system that is both (1) mathematically as strong as a python, and (2) intuitively simple. The average player has a rating around 1400 "class C", within a range that is about 800-2400. If he sits down on Friday night across from a player with a rating of 1601 ("class B"), he's got about a 25% chance, 3 to 1.
That is also how many "rating points" the players have at stake. If the class C player... Read More
We reveal the age at which to be scared ...
Posted by Spectator on 12/23/14
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3 Comments
Nelson Cruz is signed for four years: Age-34, 35, 36 and 37.
We do a deep scan of the aging profiles of four good comparable hitters:
Jeromy Burnitz
Reggie Sanders
Jermaine Dye
Alfonso Soriano
There are quite a few common threads, and one big Danger Zone.
Rumor has it, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 12/21/14
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11 Comments
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CLAIM: NORAD annually tracks the progress of (1) Santa, of (2) UFOs, and of (3) Seattle Mariner Right Fielders because a crop circle once contained important information tying these items to the well-being of humanity.
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STATUS: TRUE
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EXAMPLE: [Seen in the Shout Box, December 2014]
Supposedly the tradition of NORAD tracking Kevin Mather's RF journey on radar comes from an accident in 2014, when Seattle Sports Insider Inc. published a "Warnings and Indications, MELKY OTC" phone number that was one digit off from a key phone number at North American Aerospace Defense Command.
Although... Read More
Something doesn't quiiiiiite add up here
Posted by Spectator on 12/19/14
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In Part 1 we apply healthy skepticism to the mysteries of the newly-arrived Texan, only to get a firm stamp of approval from the statistics at hand.
In Part 2 we keep poking at the silver lining until we find the cloud. And lurking there we find ...
You got to jump up, run agin
Posted by jemanji on 12/18/14
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Nah, Dr. D don't mind chasing these rumors around. He gotta suitcase covered with rattlesnake hyde, and he stand Right. In. the Road. He got the voices speak in riddles ... he got the eye ... as black as coal ...
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Here's an AXS op-ed on the tweet. (Has it really come to this?) It guesses every possible scenario other than this one: Roenis Elias and ? for Justin Upton. The basic thesis of the article: if Zduriencik can steal Upton for "other pitching" and hold back Paxton/Taijuan, what a miracle!
The world seems blissfully unaware of last season's #23 xFIP starting pitcher. ... Read More
POTD's with a 4-hour shelf life
Posted by jemanji on 12/18/14
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Jeff Zimmerman of Fangraphs has a smokin' hot grok of one Roenis Elias. Zim had earlier had the sense that he could sort of tell, during Elias' motion, what pitch was coming next. Couldn't quite put his finger on it.
Dr. D agrees with this 100.00%. And it's part of what we were talking about, that Elias' first-pitch strike percentage was far better than his BB's wound up showing, and his swing-and-miss percentage was also better than his K's wound up showing. There was something wrong with his mid-count results.
Zim nails it down: He was too predictable in his pitch selection. Also,... Read More
Posted by Josh on 12/18/14
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Posted by Josh on 12/18/14
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Curabitur vel mauris ut tellus interdum pretium. Cras risus nulla, dapibus non rutrum sed, posuere nec magna. Duis mi nisi, finibus sit amet ultricies ac, interdum quis felis. Morbi in lacus neque. Praesent... Read More
They're fun!
Posted by Josh on 12/18/14
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Donec elementum augue at ipsum aliquam, vel convallis lacus feugiat. Integer felis nunc, condimentum tempus consequat vitae, euismod sit amet mauris. Aliquam ac ex libero. Integer gravida posuere volutpat. Cras finibus, ante eu rutrum consequat, mi tellus semper metus, vitae pharetra elit enim interdum... Read More
How many Mariners can you cram into a phone booth?
Posted by mojician on 12/18/14
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It might not be a good idea to sign another left handed outfielder. Here's why:
The five man rotation and the eight man bullpen are a given. You might argue that Lloyd doesn't need an eight man bullen. Since McClendon will have two lefties, the eighth man in the Bullpen is Dominic Leone. He is very useful. I like that guy. Plus, any such argument is advocating for changing the makeup of a historically effective bullpen that is returning intact, except maybe without Joe Beimel. When a machine is running well, it is wise not to take it apart.
Point No. 1: THE MARINERS ALREADY HAVE TOO... Read More
El Condor Pasa ...
Posted by Spectator on 12/18/14
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First we looked at Happ and saw that he was very good at being very average. And half of life is showing up.
Then Saunders (three parts starting here): and, boy, if pre-2012 Saunders really has left and gone away, then here's to you Mr. Condor. A nation (Canada) turns its lonely eyes to you.
Finally, a sum-up here. Whether Z meant to de-value his own asset or not, that's what he had ... whether he kept Saunders or not. Happ for discounted Saunders is a good return in the context, though we're not seeing much upside.
Posted by jemanji on 12/17/14
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1 Comments
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"He once beat Garry Kasparov at chess. Using his left hand."
Dr. D just watched a reality show in which a lady with a $175,000 budget shopped for houses. She wanted three bedrooms, two places to take a bath, stainless appliances, granite in the kitchen, a sun room, a spacious back yard, and a bird sanctuary for her telepathic parrot, who had final say over the purchase.
The Mariners wanted a right hand Master Blaster who could beat most lefties with his breath, and he had to play center field. To which we can confidently say, "?!"
Their budget was limited to relief pitchers from Boston... Read More
If an inane response bounces in the canyon, does anybody hear it?
Posted by jemanji on 12/17/14
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Tacoma Rain:
How about McCutchen? He can't cost that much more than Upton...
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Now Andrew McCutchen is available? Of whom Bill James said, he's got more bat speed than any player he has ever seen.
On any given day, the News Tribune reports the M's are going after superstars, while the Times reports that the M's will give up no prospects that they care about, Period. The next day, the two newspapers will trade seats on that.
Again: somebody explain to me how you fit 37 players onto a 25-man roster. Two years on. This is currently Dr. D's greatest annoyance with Zduriencik, his dour... Read More
The voice shouting back into the canyon is lonely but appealing
Posted by jemanji on 12/16/14
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1 Comments
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One-Season Stand, dept.
As you know, when you go buy a new car for $20,000 the dealer "shows" you $9,000 on your tradein. Your car + $11,000 for his car. How's that for square.
If he shows you $9,000 on the first offer, he would probably buy your car outright (without you buying his) for $6,000 or $6,500. This is the Actual Cash Value (ACV) of your car. He's "showing" you $9,000 on your tradein because he would actually sell you his car for $17,000. And that's what he'll put in the books: That he sold his car for $17k and he has $6k into your used car for resale.
It's a little slimy... Read More
Hey, twinkies aren't good for yer anyway
Posted by jemanji on 12/16/14
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2 Comments
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This is a baseball chat, not an application for internship. Take a hike, LrkrBoi. Your friend, Jeff.
Our best buds sez,
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KingCorran: Churchill says better than Upton, worse than Harper. Bautista? zobrist? cargo? Braun? Adam Jones (by his definition, not mine)? Can't see werth or holiday...4 hours 47 min ago
moethedog: If this isn't a deal that comes together easily it probably isn't a guy like Byrd, even though Crasnick is a Philly guy. Darin Ruf K's a lot but has hit 20 homers in less than 400 MLB AB's. But a guy like that shouldn't be too hard to deal to get. If it takes that long... Read More
No, Dr. D ain't joking with this HBDI shtick
Posted by jemanji on 12/16/14
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2 Comments
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This little gem being another chessgeek mnemonic. :: dr d buried in crumpled dixie cups :: HBDI forever, kiddies :- ) like Biology Rick says, that 4-way NSWE camera angle is part of what keeps things interesting. For one 'net rat, at least ...
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"A position pregnant with possibilities" was originally attributed to Dutch GM Jan Timman. It locks in the lesson that a target-rich environment has real, tangible value.
As a local tourney hack, you hesitate to burn your bridges, selling a precious Pawn, to get back "possibilities." Until you really. get. it. that this is how the... Read More
Dr. D's analyst desk gets relocated "temporarily"
Posted by jemanji on 12/16/14
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8 Comments
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Dr. D will cheerfully concede, as he did in the Shout Box, that the M's overestimated their chances to land a MOTO hitter for right field. The idea that "we are going to clear RF, because we plan on having a Star there," I gave too much credit to the M's on that point. Agreed.
The M's powerflush of Saunders was therefore (largely) motivated by their falling out with him. I oversold Zduriencik's readiness to make his next move, and undersold the M's personal vendetta against Saunders. Point granted.
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All that said, I would still maintain that if J.A. Happ was the guy they... Read More
Welcome to the post-Condor world, kids
Posted by jemanji on 12/14/14
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17 Comments
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Greg Johns at MLB.com with a list of 21 (count them) creative options. As you know, we live to serve. Your Mainframe results arere scarier than Benihana's "Font DOV," and on as many levels. For me, at least.
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JUSTIN UPTON - At this point, everybody in the stadium knows that:
Colin Kaepernick can't throw a deep out to save the tats under his wallet
Colin Kaepernick can't escape a Wagner/Wright "edge" on a jet ski
Benihana speaks softly and carries a wicked bad roll-up keyboard
Dr. D has truly gone 'round the bend and disintegrated the Shtick City train-stop barricade at 65 MPH
The... Read More
Baseball's an escape from Latin poverty, too ...
Posted by jemanji on 12/13/14
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22 Comments
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Lightly-political commentary follows.
You think James would give you a heads-up when he wanted to talk about life lessons from baseball? :- ) One wag complained, at BJOL, he didn't think it was appropriate to talk about politics on a baseball blog. Bill's terse reply: Who told you this was a baseball blog?
HEH!
To phrase it another way, it ain't like SSI is being funded by Congress with a mandated content mission. Who says that X, Y, or Z should go on in Dr. D's addled mind?
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Apparently RBI means "Reviving Baseball in the Inner Cities," or somesuch.
We hear that baseball is 50%... Read More
A-myg-DUH-la dept.
Posted by jemanji on 12/12/14
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13 Comments
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Merks sez,
merks: So is it a coincidence that the M's are loading up on Dominican players as there DR Academy gets rolling or are they trying to create some kind of recruiting, symbiotic thing?
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Within the amygdala of Dr. D lurks a Wizard Brain. Within the amygdalas of all other people lurks the Lizard Brain, those parts of their brains that they have in common with a Gecko.
You say you want to do one thing, but do another. You stuff yourself on pizza, step on the scale the next morning with +4.2 added to your Linear Weights, and resolve to never do it again.
Until, of course, the... Read More
This is another test post
Posted by admin on 12/12/14
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Ut sit amet ultrices tortor. Integer id sem mi. Aliquam egestas arcu ligula, ac feugiat purus... Read More
This is another test post
Posted by admin on 12/12/14
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Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Proin vel ex imperdiet, egestas massa eu, mollis arcu. Nunc vel ultrices urna. Curabitur tincidunt enim sit amet enim ultrices, tristique pretium dui aliquam. Morbi a est maximus, pulvinar massa quis, vehicula eros. Nulla sit amet ex ac magna pulvinar imperdiet id quis mi. Sed dignissim velit imperdiet felis euismod iaculis. Praesent a augue quis nibh consectetur cursus sed in nibh. Aenean et ipsum varius, sagittis ligula at, venenatis magna.
Ut sit amet ultrices tortor. Integer id sem mi. Aliquam egestas arcu ligula, ac feugiat purus... Read More
This is another test post
Posted by admin on 12/12/14
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Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Proin vel ex imperdiet, egestas massa eu, mollis arcu. Nunc vel ultrices urna. Curabitur tincidunt enim sit amet enim ultrices, tristique pretium dui aliquam. Morbi a est maximus, pulvinar massa quis, vehicula eros. Nulla sit amet ex ac magna pulvinar imperdiet id quis mi. Sed dignissim velit imperdiet felis euismod iaculis. Praesent a augue quis nibh consectetur cursus sed in nibh. Aenean et ipsum varius, sagittis ligula at, venenatis magna.
Ut sit amet ultrices tortor. Integer id sem mi. Aliquam egestas arcu ligula, ac feugiat purus... Read More
Dr. D bumbles through +25 runs surgery on his Right Fielder
Posted by jemanji on 12/11/14
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13 Comments
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Uses, side effects, and interactions: MELKY OTC is used to treat 513-run depression and anxiety. In addition, it is used as an anti-emetic. MELKY may improve your mood, energy, and appetite for $6 boiled weiners. MELKY should not be taken with handfuls of promising young club-controlled players, as dangerous Rule 5 player diarrhea may lead to acute dehydration. This medication works by helping to restore the balance of certain natural substances to the scoreboard.
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Precautions: Before taking MELKY, read Dr. D's leaflet Scars and Stubs carefully. This drug may make you extremely... Read More
M's fans maintain poise, dignity in face of Armageddon
Posted by jemanji on 12/11/14
Posted to blog
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Dr. Peter Venkman: This city is headed for a disaster of biblical proportions.
Mayor: What do you mean, "biblical"?
Dr Ray Stantz: What he means is Old Testament, Mr. Mayor, real wrath of the Deity type stuff.
Dr. Peter Venkman: Exactly.
Dr Ray Stantz: Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies! Rivers and seas boiling!
Dr. Egon Spengler: Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes...
Winston Zeddemore: The dead rising from the grave!
Dr. Peter Venkman: Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together... mass hysteria!
Mayor: All right, all right! I get the point!
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Bob Dutton sez,
The... Read More
Not that Jay-Z seems particularly obsessed with it right now ...
Posted by jemanji on 12/11/14
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4 Comments
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TJM being an ex-SS himself, sez that Brad Miller is simply right. He could play CF without much trouble.
He pointed out Tresh, Mantle, 'both Uptons' ... was B.J. Upton a SS too? I know there's a buncha guys I'm forgetting.
Thing is, there were lots of these back in the day, but relatively few MLB switches to CF from late starts any more. I saw a chart on it. In all fairness, a switch from SS in high school is a different kettle o' fish.
Don't think a player has come up *as a major leaguer* in the infield, and switched to CF, since like Yount maybe.
But ... obviously the M's have... Read More
As we always suspected, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 12/10/14
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4 Comments
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Inside Scoop, Dept.
We've been encouraging SABRMatt to put his own distinct fingerprints onto the Think Tank printouts. He's a little too modest to underline the fact that he worked for the biggest team in baseball. This is demoralizing to Dr. D, who enjoys underlining the fact that Bill James once sent him an e-mail.
Jemanji is never quite certain whether he is getting a Scoop or a SABRMatt Shovel, but here goes anyway ... kidding! Quoth Matt,
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1) Big league clubs do not use WAR. Sorry Fangraphs. Big league teams have their models and it varies club to club...and rarely do they assume... Read More
5 more WAR at short? Dr. D is hypnotized by the prospect
Posted by jemanji on 12/10/14
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3 Comments
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There is a lot of alarm in Seattle over Miller-for-Ian Desmond. Um, remember, kiddies, those talks "haven't gained traction." Zduriencik came out with a public statement a day or two ago. Yes, people are very interested in our SS's. However, we are also very interested in our SS's. Cut the guy a break.
There's a good reason the other org's are grabby after Taijuan and the Logo, you realize. The Russian and Chinese space programs know at least as much about UFO's as we normal citizens do. Take the Craze over Crazy Legs as a confirmation that Miller is the natural choice over Chris... Read More
Replacement level DHs, and platoons
Posted by Gordon Gross on 12/07/14
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12 Comments
In the game of baseball, as in sandcastle-building, I'd rather be the dragon than the hapless worker.
I find certain reactions to our offseason moves interesting. The prevailing opinions so far seem to be that a) we overpaid Cruz by something from a marginal to a ridiculous degree, and b) that Michael Saunders was the goose that lays the golden eggs and we threw him away for half a ham sammich and some stale fries.
NASORB (Casey McClain's excellent blog) categorized the Cruz Happ trades thusly:
"If Cruz is truly worth the 1.5 WAR that Steamer projects he’d be a 3.6 WAR marginal gain... Read More
M's happy about where they stand
Posted by jemanji on 12/05/14
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But of course, dear child. We warned you about the ListVerse and SEO shtick, and you backed away and did exactly as Dr. D commanded. Then Igor delivered the electro punishment with an evil leer. Such is life in Young Frankenstein's la-BOR-a-tor-y.
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1 The M's are talking to the Rockies about OF's. Fortunately, one of baseball's best writers is a Mariner fan who lives in Colorado. He says,
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Gordon Gross: I'm curious about who we're looking to get from the Rockies for the OF, though. Only Cargo is worth a big trade like Walker, and that depends on how you feel about Cargo's effort... Read More
the "Zen" category at SSI
Posted by jemanji on 12/05/14
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10 Comments
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At Bill James Online -- $3 a month to sign up at this link -- he keeps the most recent 15 "Hey Bills" in front of the curtain. This one is both super Zen and super timely:
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[Background]
I agree with your answer to Markus about trying to steal against Molina. (That even though it costs you runs to try SB's against Molina, you have to do it anyway. - Dr. D)
There is probably a parallel in every sport--i know that I still serve occasionally to my opponent's forehand just to "keep him honest" from running around his backhand, even though it's probable that his forehand return will be... Read More
… Jonez stops the conversation
Posted by jemanji on 12/05/14
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6 Comments
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MisterJonez said,
Let’s back up a second and absorb a single factoid here: not one average-or-better SP has signed yet this offseason, while literally every. single. bat. that was team-changing is off the board.
Think about that for a second. JackZ just effectively preempted the SP market by acquiring a #3/#4 SP for a 4th OF with injury issues and chemistry problems (team-specific though they may be). He only got him for one year, but I don’t think there’s any continent argument which suggests that there are major bargains to be had early in the offseason when it comes to SP.
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Had you... Read More
Dr. D's greed for scoreboard nourishment knows no bounds
Posted by jemanji on 12/04/14
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6 Comments
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Stubs
stub, n.: the truncated remnant of a Pencil, cigarette, or similarly-shaped object. The predictable sort of mid-cost Civic. Mike Hargrove wore through his entire pencil writing Jose Vidro's name onto his lineup card. Finally his pencil, and his sanity, wore out and he went home.
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Stars & Scrubs isn't an absolute. Every team has a few mid-cost Civics carrying the org spears. But Melky Cabrera in right field for 5 years at $16-18M? You've got DH ossified, for 4 years, and the clock hasn't started on those 4 years yet. You've got 3B ossified for 7 years. Now you're... Read More
The quips are way too easy. So sue me
Posted by jemanji on 12/03/14
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13 Comments
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Q. Does the Mainframe crunch with a particular munch on this topic?
A. Read it and weep. Dr. D's Oct. 9th "Food Fight" article featured the eerie prescience of The Wreck of the Titan.
Everybody disagreed strongly, but he persisted. When you've got Biff's future almanac, that's your attitude.
... Well, technically, somebody disagreed, but as you know, Dr. D resents this as much as if everybody did. And technically, Grizzly was the one who first said "I'll bet Saunders is gone in the offseason," and we put the Uma Thurman 5-finger discount onto his idea. But we're hoping you won't... Read More
We use our shiny new tools ... and he checks out OK for now
Posted by Spectator on 12/03/14
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This is what we were taking so much time off to prepare for. The ability to dissect a player's non-random "statistical fundamentals" via a skill-set profile.
I didn't get to finish writing about it in the abstract, but maybe that's just as well. It might be easier to follow as applied to a real player -- in this case Nelson Cruz.
We start by determining where Cruz fits into our "Flowchart Profiler" -- that's part 1.
Then the implications of that profile -- part 2.
Finally ... why does Cruz out-perform his skill-set-peers, and is he due to regress to the mean? -- part 3.
I have more Cruz,... Read More
The devotion tats alone will cost you D.J. Peterson
Posted by jemanji on 12/02/14
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9 Comments
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The New Mainframe continues to spit out contradictory data as it lurches through its Hello World phase. Let's port some of it over here, to the Continental 48 States:
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True But Not Accurate, Dept.
1) Look before you leap. But he who hesitates is lost! And you gotta strike while the iron is hot. Or he who signs the last FA bat standing on Dec. 2 is rash, and he who had no signings on Jan. 1 is a hopeless feeb?
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2) Birds of a feather flock together. But opposites attract! And if Robinson Cano couldn't recruit Cruz to wear pinstripes, why would he be able to recruit him to hit into the... Read More
Resistance Is Futile, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 12/01/14
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7 Comments
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1 That the Borg Collective Has Come So Far, So Fast. Jeffy's USSM poll has, completely aside from the vids of two hellacious Cruz jacks, a poll up that returns:
Cruz contract "overall" reaction
%
LIKE it
38
OKAY with it
37
LOVE it
12
DON'T like it
10
HATE it
3
That 3% includes The Official Fangraphs Opinion. It "calculated" $11-20M per hypothetical "win" abstraction, and finished with a flourish: "an early candidate for the worst signing of the offseason."
But who knew that these amigos have lost 97% of their audience. Gentlemen, my work is done here.
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2 That the Mariners Just... Read More
Naturally, Seattleites are in a mood to point the gun at their own heads
Posted by jemanji on 12/01/14
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7 Comments
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Discussion thread, in case you don't want to use the Shout Box for your essays.
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SABR Matt:
This is actually great news, IMHO. Cruz is probably not going to still be effective i year for, but at 58 million, year 4 is free. You're getting two years at 22 mil or so, a third year at 14 mil, and a fourth year for free.
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Which is actually the way that GM's think. (That's not based on telepathy. This time.) It's based on what front office people say.
Dr. D would bitterly resent the attempt to reduce baseball to a cost-efficiency game, even if this were the NFL where nobody can... Read More