May 2015
His xFIP was never that bad anyway. … ..
Posted by jemanji on 05/31/15
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On the most recent occasion that Taijuan was torn limb-from-limb, May 21st, Dr. D opined that the difference between Good Taijuan and Bad Taijuan could be illustrated in 3-dimensional space:
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The Bad Taijuan -- that's the first diagram, LrKrBoi29 -- is throwing a "spikeball" that is only 2-4 MPH slower than his fastball. Also, he's leaving it (nervously) up in the strike zone, because he's not following through with 'elan. He is worrying enough about fastball location that the ball isn't driving deeeeep enough into the zone, in its allotted 0.4 seconds.
The Good Taijuan, however... Read More
Drifting through the talent with TR
Posted by jemanji on 05/31/15
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As far as we know, the main Detect-O-Vision Plus site is still nominally under construction. That is fine with Dr. D, since he's had eighteen kinds of tangerine trees and marmalade skies of his own to deal with recently.
One site that is clear sailing for yer, though, is the Future Mariners sub-domain that is being worked by Jim (Spectator) and Tod (Tacoma Rain).
I'm still kinda figuring out the bells and whistles myself :- ) but under http://futurems.detect-o-vision.com, "Home" takes you to Tod's area. This is "Stud on the Farm" territory and, below the carousel, you can sort Tod's... Read More
M's up against 97 MPH on night-in, night-out basis
Posted by jemanji on 05/31/15
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Careening around the peaks and pikes of Sugar Rush Speedway -- that's Archer, Bauer, Salazar, Kluber, Pineda, with Taffyta Muttonfudge and Swizzle Malarkey up next -- the M's have been trying hard to glitch their way into a couple of leads. Early in the game Sunday, Dr. D was not holding his breath.
Funny thing, though: around the fifth curve, the Mariners took the high side on Salazar and caught no fence on the pass. Logan Morrison led off with a clean off-field single and I don't care how many Dustin Ackleys you carry in your pit crew, you've now got:
A run expectancy on the inning of... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/31/15
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Yoenis Cespedes - hitting .285 with a .485 SLG for the Tigers, with a plus defensive rating in LF . Fangraphs has him at 1.5 WAR so far, in a bit less than a third of a season.
Josh Donaldson - slugging .596 for the Jays, leaving his OPS+ at 167. Another eight homers and he'd be in Nelson Cruz territory. b-ref.com has him on pace for anywhere from 9 to 10 Wins Above Replacement.
Derek Norris - slugging .450 in San Diego as a catcher. His OPS+ the last three years, as he ages from 24 to 26: 110, 118, 115.
Brandon Moss - slugging a relatively pedestrian .442 in Cleveland.
Jeff Samardzija... Read More
Just keep walkin', LrKrBoi29. Nothin' to see here
Posted by jemanji on 05/28/15
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Bobby Fischer claimed to have been the World Champ beginning in 1962, which was ten years before his official win over Spassky. Fischer had played an 8-man tourney in Curacao, him and 7 Russians.* The Russkies conspired to throw games against each other freeze the teenage Bobby out. "The Russians have fixed world chess!" was the scandal he reported in ... wait for it ... Sports Illustrated. "I had the best score of anybody who didn't cheat. I should be the champion."
This is an interesting paradigm, if you think about it. :- ) "I had the best score of anybody who COUNTED." True, the... Read More
Cruz rains death on Rays, rays
Posted by jemanji on 05/27/15
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On May 10th, Dr. D advised the M's to play easier teams. As usual, they nodded and implemented my recommendation. Since then okay!, okay! since roughly then or thereabouts, they ripped off a 6-3 homestand against OAK, SDP and BOS. They followed this with a 6-3 road trip against ... I dunno, teams way East that aren't the Yankees.
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Chip shot on Felix' complete-game shutout, then. Wednesday he threw 30 (?!) fastballs and sinkers, 44 changeups/dry spitters, and 23 curve balls. This would be an odd ratio even it were not set as a bookend against Taijuan's and K-Pax's games.
Here is... Read More
Roenis having wayyyyy too much fun with that dead-fish change
Posted by jemanji on 05/27/15
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It's probably been fifteen years since Dr. D heard a TV broadcaster refer to a 'dead fish changeup.' They are found only in captivity when (1) thrown by a left hand starter, (2) aimed to the low-away corner, and (3) slimy with enough sinking scales that they flop into the black like a dying fish.
At times, pitches like these used to be referred to as "fosh (full of slop) balls," fosh changes and Eddie Guardado threw a palm ball with the same intent. Earl Weaver is credited with the term: "Shlabotnik's changeup is halfway between a fastball and a dead fish."
Pretty rare to sight a "dead... Read More
Have we done this for more like 100 years or more like 10,000?
Posted by jemanji on 05/24/15
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You know, there was this one day when it was 78 degrees out ... I had lobster for dinner ... I won the mini-golf contest ... THAT was a good day. Why couldn't I be reliving THAT day over and over again?
There was this one season when the Mariners scored 6 or more runs in over half of their games. Not five times in 43 games. Why couldn't we be reliving THAT season over and over again?
The Mariners score 2, or 3, or 4 runs over and Over and oVer and ovER again. True, they never get shutout, because they always hit two solo home runs. But could somebody tell us, for the love of all that... Read More
Dr. D has finally gone 'round the bend
Posted by jemanji on 05/23/15
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Q. How do you know whether it's the manager's fault?
A. We just spent the winter talking about it. You can measure whether a team is Underperforming, Overperforming, or None Of The Above. If there's a way to measure a manager's ability, that's how yer do it. What a team would be doing with a "placeholder" manager, and what it's doing now.
Strike one.
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Q. What is the number one cause of underperformance?
A. Lack of self-belief, lack of confidence, lack of conviction. Overpressing.
Norman Vincent Peale (of all people) quoted Branch Rickey in The Power of Positive Thinking. Rickey... Read More
Chillax, ya mooks ya's
Posted by jemanji on 05/23/15
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Q. Is Fernando Rodney a Legit Closer?
A. He was never Craig Kimbrel, you realize.
Last year's 48-for-51 saves thingy was a mirage, like it was a mirage for Jered Weaver to go 18-9 last season. Like it was a mirage for Chris Davis to hit 53 home runs in 2013. Ain't it funny how we sabermetricians just cannot tear our eyes off of the old stats? :- )
Rodney "happened" to close out an amazing number of wins in 2014, but there was a lot of luck in involved in that. And now he's got a 6.61 ERA, and there's a lot of luck in that too. Fernando Rodney is what he is, what he's always been. ... Read More
He would fix what ails us!
Posted by moethedog on 05/22/15
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I know we have our own Doc on call, but I've gone outside the house this morning and consulted with a good and famous Witch Doctor (whom we old guys remember): This is his Rx for the M's.
He points out, by the way, that Austin Jackson isn't going to make us any better, but he will soon be up, anyway: AJ is The Skip's guy, after all. When Jackson is up, he will most likely be batting at the top of the lineup. Oh goody!! His .300 OBP and Eddie Gaedel-like power will fuel our offense, certainly.
If Willie Bloomquist is the guy who is released then we have the weird situation of having... Read More
Wanna watch my chest hair move in slow motion?
Posted by jemanji on 05/20/15
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THE DEAD-FISH CHANGEUP
If you check out the first pitch on this vid rat cheer, well, a pitcher's worth 1000 throwahs. It's like in 1969, Ball Four when Jim Wynn, in the dugout, rolled up a magazine and interviewed Joe Morgan after a swinging strikeout:
"Joe, Joe Morgan, can you tell us what pitch that was you struck out on?"
"Jim, that was a frazzle-racking curve."
"Joe, can you explain to our viewers at home the difference between a curve and a frazzle-racking curve?"
"Sure, Jim. A normal curve, you can recognize the spin on it real early. It comes in and breaks down a little bit, and... Read More
Bet you I can name 5 guys to send thru the SP doors, starting with TW
Posted by jemanji on 05/20/15
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TAIJUAN
Dr. D has never been any good at explaining the Z-axis in baseball. OK, once more :: heavy sigh :: let's it this way.
It's not like a man stands there with a stick, looks up, and says "Oh! Here's a nice little 90 MPH fastball heading my way. I'd better smack it with this stick in my hand." No, the hitter is ready, and has been getting ready for some time now. As the pitcher winds up, and lets go, the batter has a little reaction telling him to bring the barrel to the zone in 0.42 (or whatever) seconds. That little clock in his head has gone off, oh, 100,000 times, give or... Read More
M's nearing completion on their Dominican Republic Chess Set
Posted by jemanji on 05/19/15
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BaseballHQ sez,
Sacrificed some patience and BA for PX, gaining loft with hr/f jumping by half. It's a tradeoff fantasy owners should accept, as (chronically low) xBA says 2013 BA was outlier. But here's the proper perspective... his 8-HR, .234 line in the 2nd half generated an above average BPX (114). The bar is very low these days.
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His Runs Created per 27 Outs is right around 4.00, which is exactly where Shandler projects him in 2015.
Expected batting average: .233
EYE: 0.30
Power Index (100 being average): 115
Two words: John Buck. Not as tall, though. Buck's career... Read More
Aw, shoot. All these pitches to choose from
Posted by jemanji on 05/17/15
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7 Comments
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Where are the mohawks and horn-rimmed glasses when you really need them?
"Think I'll go with the ol' number one," gloated Jake Taylor. He'd put down the index finger, in full view of the hitter. Ricky would take a windup that looked suspiciously like Rene Russo's. But the on-set consultant (legendary Dodger catcher Steve Yeager) would jerry-rig a 97 MPH swerveball with 12" of rise. Swing, miss, Wild Thing dance in the stands.
For the third time straight, a K-Pax or Taijuan threw all fastballs and for the third time straight, an enemy lineup fell right in line like they had Pete... Read More
The Logo havin' fun again
Posted by jemanji on 05/17/15
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Sez Grillzy:
MtGrizzly: Miller appears to be much more focused when Taylor is around.
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Dr. D likes the word "focus."
When you're in a Best Buy looking at high-def TV's or, in Dr. D's case, peering through an optometrist's gizmos, the word "focus" means ---- > the state of quality of having or producing clear visual definition.
You focus a camera to bring an object into sharper perception. You focus on the white fog line when some yoyo comes around the corner with his brights on, Lady GaGa just came on the radio, and the thought goes through your head to tip the steering wheel left a... Read More
Posted by moethedog on 05/16/15
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Short and Sweet:
Exclude Cruz and our RHB's are failing dismally vs. RHP.
Here you go, you may want to shut your eyes!
Hits-ABs (Hr's-BB's-K's)
Bloomquist 1-9 (0-0-3)
Sucre 1-12 (0-0-3)
Taylor 3-24 (0-2-9)
Ruggiano 3-23 (0-3-10)
Weeks 2-30 (0-5-14)
Zunino 14-82 (4-4-37)
Jackson 16-70 (0-6-16)
Total 40-250 (4-20-92) .160/.222/.232
Ish!
OK, vs. RHP (about 70% of the AB's) we do run out Miller, Smith, Morrison, Seager, Cano and Cruz. Those guys are pretty impressive, as a group. Ackley, a LHB, was bad of course!
But seeing that other guys above are now getting 33% of the lineup spots,... Read More
2015's strange mix of broccoli and syrup
Posted by jemanji on 05/14/15
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If you just joined us, SABRMatt had access to robust info when he ran the Yankee$. In particular, he worked a lot with batted ball velocity. Whereas you and I, the public, are just starting to get some "sampled" data, MLB orgs have been working with it routinely for some time.
So especially on this topic we're glad that Matty is willing to chip in. :- )
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A TV blurb had pointed out that LoMo is #6 in all the land, NL and AL, in velocity off the bat "more than 40 balls in play." SABRMatt rightly admired this figure. Dr. D agreed, adding the asterisk that this doesn't quite mean... Read More
What could possibly go wrong with THIS topic
Posted by jemanji on 05/14/15
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By the way, how many of you are aware that I landed my Klat gig with an op-ed that commended Barack Obama's election? That's how long I been doin' SSI, since President Obama's election.
I'm by no means a knee-jerk Obama critic. For example, I believe Obama when he says he is a "devoted Christian," do not believe that he is a secret Muslim, don't care about his birth certificate, don't ridicule him, etc. You won't hear me say the kinds of things that people on the left routinely said about George W. Bush or Sarah Palin.
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Last week, Obama made these remarks about Fox News: “And... Read More
Some games are just James Shields games
Posted by jemanji on 05/13/15
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Just a morning conversation thread, really. Not that there's much point since the Shout Box became The Monster That Ate Cleveland er, SSI.
Which raises a baffling question. If the Shout Box is that peachy keen, so peachy keen in fact that it can obviate the very blog it is on ... and that being the best sports blog extant ... why don't we see this Shout Box all over the interwebs?
With a resigned air, the Editor's Choice shouts from last night:
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IcebreakerX: M's strike zone fun! https://twitter.com/MarinersUmp
And that's just what it is, "strike zone fun." In the sense that it's fun to... Read More
If you can decipher THIS reference, Dr. D gives up
Posted by jemanji on 05/12/15
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35 Comments
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Mike Zunino hit a home run, impossibly, over the beer garden in center field. They gave him credit for 445 feet, of which ripoff stunned Jay Buhner into silence. That should give you a feel for how chintzy the measurement was. Then again, Stanton's ball was off the legal premises at Dodger and that got only 475 feet, so okay. But here's the vid if you want to savor id.
His other homer jussssst missed the second deck in left, and he had a frozen rope into left field for another single. Time for some splits:
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Period
AVG
OBP
SLG
Remark
Apr 6-29
.121
.212
.241
Pitchers: .122/.153/.153... Read More
He's more EXHILARATING than Felix, if nothing else
Posted by jemanji on 05/12/15
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Last year, Paxton said the big key was to shorten his backstroke. Looks long to me again. Maybe he forgot, or maybe he doesn't care whether he walks three guys in a row, or maybe Dr. D is hallucinatin', Simon.
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1. So even though he was armed with nothing more than a fastball that he couldn't throw for a strike, James Paxton held the Padres to 0 runs on 3 scratch singles in 6 innings.
2. The punch line: San Diego's offense is so fearsome against lefties that Roenis Elias was yanked from Wednesday's game.
3. The punch punch line: the moment Paxton left, the vaunted Mariner... Read More
The grin looking a little creepier these days? ...
Posted by jemanji on 05/12/15
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I don't believe that you can punish employees based on the civil standard of 'more likely than not.' But then again, I don't believe that's what the NFL did. Even though they used that language in their public announcements.
Rick says,
From Field Gulls on why the punishment was so heavy (normally the fine is $25K):
Because the NFL was extremely clear that it wasn't punishing the Pats just for cheating. From the official explanation of the Pats' penalty -- emphasis added:
"For the violation of the playing rules and the failure to cooperate in the subsequent investigation, the New England... Read More
Legends of the game, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 05/11/15
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If Felix retired tomorrow, would you take his career over those of Vida Blue, Catfish Hunter and Dizzy Dean?
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Twenty years ago, we used to chat with STATS' Mike Mittleman about the difference between control and command. "Control is the ability to throw strikes," Mike would argue. "Command is the ability to locate the ball in the strike zone."
Fair enough ... but there was something else there, something elusive. Greg Maddux did more than just locate the ball in the strike zone, right? "Command" may address the idea of pitchability, or the idea of knowing when to challenge and when not... Read More
Mismatch, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 05/11/15
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4 Comments
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DaddyO sez,
What the M's need is to finish out the month without losing more than one more series, and that one not by a sweep. That's what it's going to take to vault back into a solid state of affairs.
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Great minds think alike, particularly the great minds of us 40+ senior citizens. (That may be a redundancy, great minds and senior citizens.) It isn't an accident that the AARP votes in a monolith.
Dr. D was just musing about the last four series, DaddyO ... counting backwards from most recent:
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ENEMY
SERIES RESULT
SERIES FLOW
INCREDIBLE INSIGHT
Orcs
3-0
M's never trailed*
4 errors... Read More
Can't fault the M's for effort, anyway
Posted by jemanji on 05/11/15
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Seth Smith led off the game on April 22nd. It seemed a pleasant little dream, but we had no confidence that an old-school manager would keep a slow player (90 speed index) there.
But since April 22, Smith has never hit anywhere but #1 or #2. In the fifteen games since, he's hit in either spot half the time.
Compare his two slash lines:
Time
AVG
OBP
SLG
Career
.265
.346
.454
This Year
.266
.326
.481
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His walks are down and his power up, which you would assume is caused by pitchers challenging him more -- or his facing the excellent pitching in the AL West, maybe?
Pitch F/X confirms that... Read More
Lose a SS, gain a …. Gomez? Jones? Harper? or Reed...
Posted by jemanji on 05/07/15
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Bob Dutton with the Jack Z quotes:
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Zduriencik doesn’t hold to the game’s long-held protocol that a club must play 40 or 50 games in order to make any legitimate overall assessment.
“I just think it’s an ongoing evaluation,” he said. “I’ll look at 20, 30, 40, 50 or 60 games. It’s always ongoing to figure out exactly where you’re at, and what your club is doing.”
“We made a couple of moves the other day,” Zduriencik said, “because we thought they were the right thing to do at the time. And we’ll continue to look at it.”
Read more here: http://www.thenewstribune.com/2015/05/07/3780824/... Read More
"Doctor, c'mon, let's go." "No! Dr. D is enjoyin' this!"
Posted by jemanji on 05/05/15
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Cross-Sport Dept.
Dr. D was flattering himself to the effect that he could intelligently watch an F.A. Cup final. The mighty Arsenal Gunners, featuring several "Ballon d'Or" (player of the planet) finalists, vs the feeble Burnley Whatevers, featuring some guy from the pub downwind. Burnley comes from a lower division, but it's not like the Mariners vs the Rainiers. It's more like the Cleveland Cavaliers vs. the Duke Blue Devils.
During play, the announcer said something like, "Burnley can't play a coherent passing game like Arsenal does. In [minor-league soccer] it's about hustle,... Read More
LoMo's 240 lbs. + Boomstick = Love at 1st sight for Dr. D
Posted by jemanji on 05/05/15
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Much has been made of Logan Morrison's new heavy bat. Bamm! Bamm! Bamm bamm BAMM!
By sheer coinky-dink, it's the size of Nelson Cruz' BOOM stick. He went up one inch and two ounces. In golf this would read as, "put the 4-iron back in the bag and hand me the oversize driver." From a fairway lie. Dr. D isn't sure that he has heard of a batter clubbing up two ounces between games. Well, not that Dr. D inhabits clubhouses.
Jack Nicklaus was in a little cartoon book on golf. He asked, "Want to make this golf season more fun? Take one more club than you first thought of, and I promise it... Read More
It ain't about innocence; it's about fairness
Posted by jemanji on 05/05/15
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26 Comments
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Geoff Baker, a HOF-destined sportswriter, has two articles up. The first one questions whether the Seahawks had the ethical right to draft Frank Clark, in the 1st round or the 7th. The second article (commendably) quotes the prosecutor to the effect that Clark is fine.
A few questions, after which Mojo or anybody else can point the hapless Dr. D in the right direction:
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OK, the Seahawks won't draft anybody who ever hit a woman -- even if our judicial system has already extracted the full penalty the man owes society.
Since when do we privatize the punishment of crime? When mob... Read More
Dr. D's shtick is getting on Tuner's nerves
Posted by jemanji on 05/03/15
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(Yes, Tuner uses Ed Asner as his avatar, which keeps the image just inside the foul pole.)
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Tuner did the prose. Dr. D's archived "ghost" AI sim does the shtick. As with Rolling Stone's music critics: those who can't do, teach.
Corrected annotation by the artist is, of course, out of the question. But anyone else is welcome to kick the poem around with me.
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Listen my children and hear the call Of the M’s last unexplainable tragedic fall. (1) On the 2nd of May in two-thousand-one-five (2) When every M’s fan had to witness the dive (3) and remember that infamous game of baseball.... Read More
Stay rational, Capt. Jack
Posted by jemanji on 05/01/15
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11 Comments
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Q. Can the ballclub afford to let Mike Zunino "hit" like a pitcher? It basically gives the other team the DH.
A. It really can't. Then again, Mike Zunino doesn't hit like a pitcher.
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Q. Would Dr. D replace Dustin Ackley? Logan Morrison? What would be the best moves?
A. If you're going to fire an employee, you need to do it after his BEST day, not his worst. If you're going to file divorce papers*, you need to do it when you're having your best week of the year as a couple. Then you know it's not an emotional reaction.
The M's just got throttled by a meatball, shut out... Read More