September 2016
given the quite minor assumption that we'll kick the Orcs while they're down
Posted by jemanji on 09/30/16
Posted to blog
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SIT REP
Okay. :: cracks knuckles briskly :: Eight teams in the AL have 0.0% chance of postseason play, including the Yankee$ with their $226MM payroll, including the Astros (thanks to the Mariners) and the champ Royals, and especially including Jerry DiPoto's old bosses who are -14 games out of the Wild Card.
With only two games to go, 7 teams have chances at 5 spots. The Orioles have 88 wins, the Jays 87, the Mariners 86 and also the Tigers have 86, with a rainout game in hand. Fangraphs puts the Mariners and Tigers at 18-22% to play a Wild Card game. Is that as opposed to a "Play-In... Read More
Posted by jschario on 09/30/16
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Week 2 of the Champions League group stage completed this week, and Spain again showed it quality against some of the biggest international clubs in the world. The English Premier League may get a lot of adulation as the best soccer league on the planet, and for good reason. Any given match a team the stature of Manchester United or Chelsea can lose to the likes of a Swansea or Crystal Palace.
However when it comes to European play, the true cream of the crop lies in the Iberian Peninsula, Spain to be exact. Europa League or Champions League, Spanish teams are proving to be the class of... Read More
KKKarns and Miranda take two sides of the Athleticism continuum
Posted by jemanji on 09/30/16
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2 Comments
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Miranda finished with a powerful line on Thursday, that being 5.1 IP with 0 BB, 6 K, only 1 run and 4 hits.Earlier, Sims had asked DiPoto what had attracted him to Miranda. Quoth DiPoto:
1) He's an "athletic" pitcher in his 20's with his best years ahead of him
2) Quick fastball, up to 96 MPH
3) Splitfinger is an out pitch
4) a few other little comments
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Applying the mainframe to each of these points: (3) Is the splitfinger an out pitch? We have noted before that it sails high and gloveside; it's not the kind of Chuck Finley / Jeff Fassero forkball that rides downhill and bounces in... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/30/16
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ORIOLES, BLUE JAYS
A fine time these guys pick. Baltimore has put their game away, 8-1 in the bottom of the 8th. Toronto is batting in the 7th inning, ahead 3-1 in Fenway. If either team wins, then the M's would need to "win out" and would need one team or the other to drop two.
Matt and others had an inkling towards the 89 figure in the win column. Alas, the M's max is 88. Pick your favorite botched game from May and point a finger at it with Dr. D's blessing. Still, going in to the evening, the microprocessors had had a 13% chance for the M's to play a play-play-in-out-who-knows-who... Read More
The Trivial Story Of How DaddyO Became DaddyO
Posted by DaddyO on 09/29/16
19 Comments
DADDYO, GILLIGAN, AND RAT FINK: The Trival Story Of How DaddyO Became DaddyO
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Details lost in the annals of online history, specifics shrouded even in the fogged mind of the principal, the screen moniker DaddyO is of murky origin. Somewhere, at some time and in some circumstance, I was faced for the first time with the requirement to come up with what was then called a Screen Name. I never needed one before, but if I wanted to participate in whatever online community drew my interest, it was necessary for me to create one.
It was clear some prolonged, deep soul searching was required to... Read More
not so many P's pitch off a low-70s hook any more
Posted by jemanji on 09/29/16
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FINISHING STRONG
As we read in a Conan book one time ... Conan stood up, surveyed the glade, and realized that whereas the Pict was dead, he was alive. Alive. Alive! Hey, the Astros wanted the series as much as we did.
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MOTO
Robinson Cano got an 89-MPH fastball right on the outside corner, and hit a convincing 3-run shot to straightaway left field. There are one or two batters on each ML roster capable of executing that swing. Here, if you don't believe me, the fact-checkers at MLB.com have the data for you.
Kyle Seager did what he has been doing since 2012, when SSI made him a Best... Read More
with a bit of a back door
Posted by jemanji on 09/29/16
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9 Comments
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They REFUSIN' to LOSE
Cracking win by the Mariners in Houston, both with respect to the home series and to the series in general. Astros are -3.5 behind the second spot, behind everybody, and are sunk without a bubble.
Now then, iff the M's go 4-0, then they'll need 2-2 from the Orioles (vs. Tor and @ NYY) while also getting 3-1 from the Tigers (@) Atlanta. Naturallly enough, if the M's botch one game in Orkland, then they'll need 1-3 from the O's and 2-2 from Detroit. All of this would seem more plausible Thursday morning, if we could get our rivals to drop a game for us.
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THREE WAY... Read More
Posted by jschario on 09/28/16
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Just as every loss is overblown, so is every win. Sunday's Seahawks victory at Century Link might be even more overblown because it came not only within the division, but against what used to be a rival. What's hard to believe is that these San Francisco 49ers lit up the Rams for 38 points when the Seahawks couldn't muster more than three.
Proclamations that the offense is fixed may ring out throughout the Puget Sound, but whether or not that is true, key cogs of the offense are broken - literally.
First there's the backfield. Thomas Rawls' injury turned out to be more severe than what... Read More
Dr. Detecto cannot promise this movie will end well, but ...
Posted by jemanji on 09/27/16
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6 Comments
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PLAYOFF CHANCES = 17%
Glorious victory in Houston in extras, once again keyed by our Star at second base. This leaves the M's with only the Orioles in front of them, 2.0 games' difference with 6.0 games left for each team to play. I fancy the scenario in which the M's go 4-2, the Orioles 2-4, leaving two Wild Card games in succession.
In another scenario, the O's go 3-3 but the M's win 5 of 6, seeing as we get the Orks for four games and the Orioles play the mighty Jays, and the Yankee$ ... both on the road.
Some friendly denizen might do us a great kindness by lining up the six pitching... Read More
Posted by jschario on 09/26/16
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No one thought anyone team was ever going to run away with the championship, so it should not be a surprise that the race for the La Liga title got nothing but tighter after all 20 teams played twice this week.
Real Madrid still hold on to a slim lead after being held to just one point in each of their matches this week, a draw at home to Villarreal and then another Saturday on the road in Gran Canaria against Las Palmas. The newly promoted Las Palmas were able to pull even at two in the 85th minute thanks to a goal by 24-year-old Argentinan striker Sergio Araujo. Marco Asensio and Karim... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/26/16
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33 Comments
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Hola amigos! Please post your quik takes below if you're of a mind. ... I'm certainly not Mr. Sensitivity when it comes to making criminal laws out of the concept, but do suggest that we all show some "sensitivity" to friends who vote the other side. If you plan on voting Trump, for example, please comment with an awareness that you'll be read by people voting Hillary, and treat them as your friends.
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TREMENDOUS PRESSURE
I don't know if Hillary, or Trump, will melt down. I do know, however, that if I were in their shoes I'd be well capable of melting down.
The Bobby Riggs - Billie Jean... Read More
Tyler Duffy locks down the Mer'ners
Posted by jemanji on 09/24/16
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4 Comments
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M's 2, Twins 3
While Detroit loses ... Orioles win ... and the M's playoff chances become desperate. With 8 to play in Seattle, 7 to play in Baltimore, the Mariners are -2 behind in the loss column. Fangraphs evaluates this as a 7% chance for the Mariners to play a Wild Card game.
The Mariners just proved again today what Keith had noted earlier - that the M's chances rest mainly on the teams ahead of them botching it. In baseball it's hard to "force" victories. Any tomato can, bleeding a blood-red ERA of 6.39 as Duffy is, can hold you to 2 runs if he walks nobody and you hit the ball... Read More
no, not this 8x10, doc. the next pic
Posted by jemanji on 09/24/16
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1 Comments
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DOES THIS JUMP OFF THE PAGE AT YOU, Dept.
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Footnotes:
(1) There are certain things the above FIP (fielding-independent pitching) stat says, and certain things it doesn't.
(1a) One of the things it probably doesn't say, necessarily: that James Paxton comes to 2017 camp "a favorite to make the rotation."
....
(2) It's interesting that Fangraphs' WAR has Paxton for 3.4 WAR in half a year, and B-Ref's version of WAR has him for 1.1. Entertaining! Maybe one of you denizens wants to summarize for us what this tells us about the two WAR variants. Besides the fact that Fangraphs... Read More
Posted by jschario on 09/23/16
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Slow starts. It's what the Seattle Seahawks have become known for over the past few seasons. And every year, we ask, and maybe think, that this season will be different. Unfortunately though, it seems like this season might not be.
So far the offense has struggled to get going, scoring only one touchdown. On top of that, injuries to key pieces of the offense still exist, inhibiting any positive glimmer of hope for some sudden uptick in performance.
Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett should be a go for Sunday, even though both were limited earlier in the week in practice. Who knows how effective... Read More
M's -2 back with 13 precious games to play
Posted by jemanji on 09/23/16
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4 Comments
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CHAT THREAD
SSI denizens were wondering, "Whence the weekly Shout box." Dr. Detecto's bad - we kept last week's front-and-center until Thursday, whereupon the game threads sort of elbow'ed their way to the front of the line. This week we'll try and keep this post timestamped all the way up to Saturday. 'ave at thee, matey.
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M's 7, LASTRO's 3
Which leaves the M's -2 games back of either Toronto or Baltimore with 13 full games left to play. If you don't call that a "pennant race" ... you're, well, on the wrong side of that argument.
DiPoto was on the broadcast saying "Every loss feels... Read More
An Old Friend Shares His Excitement
Posted by DaddyO on 09/23/16
6 Comments
Thought I would share with this community a FB post I put up early this afternoon.
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Just had a terrific hour-long conversation with Rick, an old friend and roommate from my Southern California days. He was my best man when Gail and I were married in 1982. Explaining what triggered him to call me is a bit convoluted but interesting.
He and his older brother were born, raised, and went to high school in Visalia, California. One of his brother's friends at high school was someone who would go on to become one of the premier actors of his generation, Kevin Costner. Over the years Rick has... Read More
Dr. D is a little touchy about K-Pax blasphemy
Posted by jemanji on 09/23/16
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4 Comments
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Dr. D gasped in horror to see the following lead-in on the M's site:
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"... James Paxton is 0-2 with a 4.94 ERA in five starts since going on the DL after being hit in the elbow with a line drive. "
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At Boeing they had this tongue-in-cheek phrase, "True but not accurate." If you never knew what they meant by that, you know now. LOL.
Paxton also has a slash line of 27 whiffs, 5 walks (!) and 2 homers allowed in 27.1 innings since going on the DL after being hit in the elbow with a line drive. This is even better than his season slash line of 8.3 strikeouts, 1.9 walks (!) and 0.7 homers... Read More
what would Counselor Troi think of our lattes, with children starving around us?
Posted by jemanji on 09/23/16
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9 Comments
SABRMatt sez,
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You know...I just read a fantastic article on the history of the notion that Ty Cobb was some sort of inhuman animal/monster with deep racist views and such - the piece made the case that, actually, his whole family was full of avowed abolitionists who'd been run out of town more than once because they supported ending slavery and desegregation, that he, himself favored the inclusion of black ballplayers at the major league level, and that his contemporaries didn't despise him the way the press has us believe they did today. In fact, most of them had a deep respect for his... Read More
perhaps Moe can comment on the interlocking grip .....
Posted by jemanji on 09/22/16
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11 Comments
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Well, maybe not quite interlocking :- ) but it's not clear to me how you get Babe Ruth style calluses on your palms if you're wrapping your little finger. LOL.
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In the Shout Box during the last Houston game, people asked for a summary of what DiPoto said. That was one game I missed live on TV, but went back through the game on DVR in order to get DiPoto's half an inning of commentary. Little did I realize that JeDi would open up the fire hydrant in the 2nd (?) and it was still gushing when I left off in the 4th or so. Wow.
Six pages of handwritten chicken scratch and no idea how... Read More
in theory, the generic opponent is a little more edible this weekend
Posted by jemanji on 09/22/16
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1 Comments
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It was a funny series against the Jays. Sometimes a team comes in here and looks like a 125-win team for three games. The Nationals did that a few years ago. Couple others. The M's did crawl out of the coffin to salvage that last Toronto game. That accomplishment felt vaguely like the U.S. hockey team beating the Soviets in 1980. Do you believe in miracles?
Could not beLIEVE that Joey Bautista hit that pitch from Edwin Diaz ... except it looked completely inevitable.
Some time, some where the Jays lost 70 games this year. One of you mooks want to 'splain that to me? Seriously. And... Read More
pictured below: more resemblance, or more metaphor?
Posted by jemanji on 09/22/16
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10 Comments
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If you just joined us in the bleacher seats :- ) at Bill James Online, the last 15-25 "Hey Bill" mailbag questions are always up in front of the (mere $3) paywall. Also, Bill has given us at SSI a free hand to excerpt him. That reflects James' displeasure with the "gimme gimme gimme" authors who resent anybody reading their professional material without sending them a dollar first. He suggested once that such an author should be removed from all public libraries ... as well as from any other public attention ...
For thirty years, baseball fans have considered James a sort of free public... Read More
yet everything remains the same
Posted by jschario on 09/22/16
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The Spanish top flight gets a bit of a bad rap in the soccer world for being very top heavy, which holds some merit. Every year for the past four or five seasons, the title race has come down to a battle of three teams; Atlético Madrid, Barcelona and Real Madrid.
However this past weekend easily featured the best match ups and most contested matches in the young 2016-17 season. The marquee match taking place on the Mediterranean at the Camp Nou between Atleti and Barça. Of course, any match with the words Madrid and Barcelona is always somewhat of a rivalry, even if both sides look at Real... Read More
In vain they set a net in the sight of any bird, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 09/19/16
Posted to blog
7 Comments
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GAME CHAT
So this thread would be for game-specific angst. The Main Chat Thread is for Mariners-general angst. Personally, I'll be at the game with my son. If you can think of something better than that, power to you. ... well, the something better than that would be to leave a Shout Box conversation for Dr. D's enjoyment postgame.
DiPoto had a great line on TV yesterday: at this point in the season "Every loss feels like the worst thing that could possibly happen in your life. Every win is pure joy." Or somesuch. "Join the roller coaster."
At least for tonight, the M's are ON that... Read More
No surprises in Week 3
Posted by jschario on 09/18/16
Posted to blog
Last week, Real Madrid moved into sole possession of first place in the Spanish top flight for the first time in over a year. And this was not the week they wanted to give it up again, traveling to Barcelona to take on Catalonia's other team, Espanyol Sunday.
Manager Zindine Zidane decided to rest both of his biggest galaticos, Cristiano Ronaldo and Gareth Bale. No matter however, because he still has galaticos on reserve. Out go Ronaldo and Bale, in go James Rodriguez and Marco Asensio. And the Colombian James rewarded Zidane by putting the visitors up 1-0 just before halftime.
James of... Read More
how can K-Pax throw like that and get zero for it?
Posted by jemanji on 09/17/16
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1 Comments
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Tigers lost.
Orioles lost.
Yankees lost.
Jays lost ... well, are losing through eight.
... so even though the M's get stifled in their attempt to catch Baltimore ... Saturday night works out not much differently than a Thursday off for everybody. With 14 games left to play, the M's have to catch up +3 games on Toronto or Baltimore, whichever plays worst. Hopefully that will be Toronto, bein' as they're here Monday.
FanGraphs works this out to a 24% chance of postseason play for the M's, but ... it's pretty much the same thing as saying there is a 24% chance the M's will play well. 7-... Read More
well, not for the Astros, maybe
Posted by jemanji on 09/17/16
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INDIANS 1, TIGERS 0 - in 10 INNINGS
Carlos Carrasco got KO'ed in the first and was diagnosed with a fractured hand - relevant to those pesky October hurdles towards the World Series. Justin Verlander twirled 7 shutout innings, but Cleveland's Johnny Bullpen outpitched him. Wow, what a frustrating loss for both sides.
The Tigers fall to +8 over .500, one half game behind the M's.
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ENOUGH. COMEDY. JOKES.
Time to get back to winning. This thing is right there for the taking. Gotta take it.
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RAYS 1, BALMER 2 AFTER FIVE
As we write. The M's are -3.0 behind both the Jays and Orioles, with... Read More
King Felix. I hear you talk to umps.
Posted by jemanji on 09/16/16
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4 Comments
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TWINKIES 5, TIGERS 1
Mike Pelfrey was KO'ed in the second inning by the murderous Twins offense, featuring Kenys Vargas, Max Kepler and Brian Dozier. Curiously, the MLB.com wrap characterized the Tigers as "neck and neck with the Blue Jays for the second Wild Card spot." Actually the Jays are in the first spot and the Tigers are -2.0 games behind the Orioles for the second spot. But what's a couple of games in this situation.
Detroit +10 games over .500, with a 27% playoff shot per Fangraphs.
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RAYS 7, BALMER 6
Evan Longoria hit a 3-run homer in the top of the first, but Matt Weiters and... Read More
when they tell you not to run THAT'S WHEN YOU RUN, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 09/16/16
Posted to blog
12 Comments
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Sez Bill at Be Jolly, Inc. ..
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A lot of people in LA thought the Dave Roberts hire was weak. Looking at what he's done this year, it's fairly remarkable. We've had a slew of injuries, and our starting pitching has been a mess, with several guys who rarely make it past the 5th inning. His bullpen use seemed bizarre early on, but damn if it hasn't worked to perfection. It certainly helps that the Giants have melted down over the second half, but even without that we'd be sitting at the top of the wild card.
Having a manager who's on the same page as upper management, and who seems... Read More
verb swag·ger \ˈswa-gər\
Posted by moethedog on 09/15/16
6 Comments
: to walk in a very confident way : to walk with a swagger : see Taijuan Walker as of 9/13/16
Kudos to Merriam-Webster.
Well, actually I added that last part.
Metaphor is a figure of speech that refers, for rhetorical effect, to one thing by mentioning another thing:
All the American League's a stage
And our Mariners merely players;
Having their way upon it.
William Shakespeare, As SSI Likes It
Well, it's a little-known work by The Bard.
48 wins in a row will do that to a team and blog site. Or 8 wins in a row when all seemed lost. Take your pick.
The gears are all meshing, all... Read More
Posted by jschario on 09/14/16
Posted to blog
Champions League is already back underway and the Spanish quartet of clubs came away undefeated, with Atlético Madrid, Barcelona and Real Madrid winning three points a piece; and Sevilla finishing with a point after a goalless draw with Juventus.
Atlético beat Dutch side PSV Eindhoven on the road, while both Barça and Real won at home, 7-0 and 2-1 respectively.
Diego Simeone's rojiblancos squad started their quest for a third UCL final in four years in the Netherlands, earning a hard fought three points in typical Atleti fashion. Saul Ñiiguez, not even 20-years-old, showed why everyone around... Read More
wow! M's playoff chances double in one day, to 15%
Posted by jemanji on 09/14/16
Posted to blog
20 Comments
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THE SSI LOBBY
Earlier, we posted the "Main Shout Box Sept. 09 2016" area, which had the predictable, completely unpredictable SSI user result: it became the Shout Box ... in the CMS comments area. Heh! Which, well, verbal and functional feedback is always vital in this game. No, not feedback on Dr. D's shtick as such; that was written off about the time of the STATS AOL boards. Or Mariner Central at the latest.
So ... here's a comments thread to be the "coherent general conversation" through next Sunday or so. 'ave at thee, varlet.
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PLAYOFF CHANCES
Yesterday, Moe had laid... Read More
One of the most fun games of the season
Posted by jemanji on 09/14/16
Posted to blog
6 Comments
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Grizzly and SABRMatt sez,
MtGrizzly I didn't get to watch - radio only. How did Walker's new delivery look?
SABR Matt looks tonight like Stottlemyre may have earned his pay for the next ten years
SABR Matt (2) They did some nice side by side comparisons tonight. He is getting his knee up higher on the backstroke and then getting down lower through the pitch and it's putting his arm above the ball better...it's causing the change split to drop more and, he discovered today, his curveball to have late snap on it and be a legitimate out pitch. On top of that, the new drop and drive... Read More
this M's obsession is not going to end well for Dr. D
Posted by jemanji on 09/14/16
Posted to blog
2 Comments
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PLAYOFF ODDS
DaddyO sez,
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DaddyO No doubt that with this latest winning streak the M's are starting to rekindle some interest. What they need is to extend this streak to, say, ten games, and still play high percentage baseball afterwards, while the teams above them either struggle or beat each other. Then it gets real interesting.
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And we're back to the Big Three already on Wednesday :- )
Detroit, the Royals, Jays, and Astros lost while Taijuan Walker did his Max Scherzer impersonation. Fangraphs shot our playoff odds all the way back up to 27.6%, which is where it has been at most of... Read More
in what mood, is purely up to you
Posted by jemanji on 09/13/16
Posted to blog
5 Comments
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IN NFL TERMS
A week ago, the Mariners' playoff chances had dipped to 4% per Fangraphs simulated seasons. (Wild Card chances, Season to Date stats mode). This morning, after six wins in a row, those chances are back to 19.7%.
Pro Football Reference has a Win Probability Calculator for in-game scores and yard lines, so we can compare a football game to the Mariners' standings Then-and-Now.
THEN (4%): Behind 28-7 in the first quarter. (Four minutes left in Q1, your ball on the 50.)
NOW (20%): Behind 34-28 in the fourth quarter. (Five minutes left, your ball on the 25.)
Sooooo ... you... Read More
...So far
Posted by jschario on 09/12/16
Ranked the highest the program has ever been since 2001 at no. 8, the Washington Huskies football team is matching their performance with the fans' excitement thus far. After easily dispatching Rutgers two Saturdays ago, Chris Petersen's crew handedly turned away the Idaho Vandals to the tune of 59-14 at Husky Stadium.
The Huskies wasted absolutely no time in getting started, forcing and recovering a fumble on the opening kickoff. Sophomore star quarterback Jake Browning must have been comfortable starting the game on the sideline as he tossed the ball 21-yards to receiver Dante Pettis for... Read More
Posted by jschario on 09/11/16
Posted to blog
Fans hoping for a defensive struggle that went down to the wire got exactly what they wanted from the Seahawks in Week 1.
Traveling across the country to play in the loudest stadium in the league, the Miami Dolphins came in as heavy underdogs against the Seahawks. However they gave the Seahawks as tough a test as any they could have had, held to six points until the last four minutes of the game.
They say defense travels, and Miami does have a talented defense that showed they travel well. Byron Maxwell came back to Seattle in a Miami uniform and immediately displayed his innate skill of... Read More
Barcelona drops three points
Posted by jschario on 09/11/16
Posted to blog
None of the three top Spanish teams have played teams anywhere near their stratosphere, yet only Real Madrid remains unscathed through the first three weeks of the 2016-17 season.
Heading into the season's third week, Atlético Madrid was still looking for their first win of the young season, and coming out of the weekend, Barcelona find themselves looking up at Real Madrid in the leaderboard. Newly promoted Alavés from Basque Country in the north of Spain has suddenly assumed the titles of world beaters as they have managed to upset both Atleti and Barça. First they played Diego Simeone's... Read More
yeah suurrrre NOW it's rainbows and ponies
Posted by jemanji on 09/10/16
Posted to blog
1 Comments
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FOUR IN A ROW
It's a given that the Mariners gotta rip off wins. What if they do?, is our question. The Detroit Tigers lost 11-3, putting them +11 over .500 to the Mariners' +6. Two and a half out with twenty games left? We followed the Seahawks last year when they were -4 back last year with 10 games left. The M's catching the Tigers is not (yet) farfetched.
Granted, this scenario stipulates that the Orioles will stumble. They got seven against the mighty Red Sox, series with the Yankees and Jays, and they got two decent starters of which one is injured.
Another stipulation is that... Read More
M's are 14-7 in his starts. That's 108 wins a year
Posted by jemanji on 09/10/16
Posted to blog
1 Comments
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HAIL FELIX, KING OF INNINGS EATERS
He went six shutout ... with only two whiffs. Question, estimable Dr. Detecto: is Felix now a innings chomper de luxe?
Answer, fair denizen: no, he's not. Innings eaters are ex-aces, true. Like Mark Buehrle, Jered Weaver*, and their ilk. They've lost their fastballs, true. But they run their league-average ERA's based on smoke, mirrors, 0-1 counts and Voros McCracken's quantum theory.
Felix is still well able to attack batters and put them onto their back foots. ... where is Zum-Bro' when you need a grammar checker ... He's lost the fastball but... Read More
and a report card for Dae-Ho Lee
Posted by jemanji on 09/10/16
Posted to blog
17 Comments
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Mornin' denizens. The Shout Box under this post can serve as the "Lobby" Shout Box for a week or ten days. Designs for a basic "landing" page / Shout Box are in the hopper.
Gratuitous baseball snippet, which absolutely saber-justifies the stub beyond all dispute: Dae-Ho Lee is hitting .400 with walks and power the last two weeks. If you're time-warping from March 2016 to Sept. 2016 and asking, "how did it turn out?", so far you have got:
1) He hits righties very well, for the same reason Nelson Cruz does. But this also means he's not a .600 SLG tailored weapon vs. LHP.
2) As of early... Read More
savoring Jack Zduriencik's penchant for Runs Batted In
Posted by jemanji on 09/10/16
Posted to blog
1 Comments
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If you missed the game, here's the nuts of it. If you didn't miss the game, may we suggest Pokemon Go, which uses your five tactile senses to consistently stimulate the pleasure centers in your brain.
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BOOMSTICK
The game-winning RBI occurred in the 2nd inning. Nelson Cruz had a preposterous at-bat in which he:
Fouled off 12 pitches, twelve pitchers' pitches, at various speeds and angles
Got a 94 MPH fastball onto his right kneecap, which he inside-outed as if he were Derek Jeter ...
... if Derek Jeter had ever been capable of going off the right-center wall with that swing
A moment of... Read More
hey, whudya say 16-K closers are worth again?
Posted by jemanji on 09/10/16
Posted to blog
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BULLPEN
Steve Cishek is throwing the ball fairly well, taking more of the strike zone, and ... it wouldn't be fair to overstate his problems this year. To date, he's got 11+ strikeouts, 2+ walks, and 1.29 (which is 8 total homers on the year) might be a touch of gopheritis or it might be a bit of bad luck, in which a batter "accidentally" caught the ball on the right smidgeon of equator.
Cishek's 15.4% homer per fly rate is assumed to be a luck stat by sabes. If you agree, then you also assume that Steve Cishek is a legitimate midrange closer ... "closing" the 8th for a young superstar... Read More
blogging degree of difficulty here: about a zillion
Posted by jemanji on 09/10/16
Posted to blog
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PLAYOFF SCENARIOS - THREE WINS DESERVES THIS SQUIBBET, IF NOTHING ELSE
[fill in your OWN punch line about playoff scenarios and Italian soccer umpires, deadbeat. if you aren't going to bother to watch the games, don't expect me to do that for you AND write funnies about them]
HI+: Detroit OR Baltimore plays winning baseball and puts it out of reach.
HI- and EASIEST TO VISUALIZE: Detroit OR Baltimore goes 11-9 and sets the bar at 89 wins, exactly as SABRSith hath forseen. Mariners need to go 16-5, which, don't we all.
MID-: Detroit AND Baltimore play listlessly -- and against each other... Read More
a single 5-WAR rookie can go a long way
Posted by jemanji on 09/09/16
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2 Comments
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Bill James has another excellent article up, the kind we used to buy Abstracts to read. It's $3 per month to get thirty dollars per month worth of material. We'll Exec Sum the first portion of the article and its Mariner relevance.
First: a question. As it stands right now, Sept. 9, 2016, have the Mariners been good, bad or average at developing the rotation? The answer is "good"; they're 9th of 30 teams at it.
Second: Here's how the conversation went...
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Q. Hey Bill. Why can't the Red Sox develop starting pitchers?
A. Let's ask, as the entry level question, whether it is... Read More
Atletico have dug themselves quite a hole
Posted by jschario on 09/08/16
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Soccer leagues around Europe took a break last week to accomodate for players going on international duty to play in their countries' World Cup qualifiers.
For the big clubs in Spain - Atlético Madrid, Barcelona and Real Madrid - this is a time of great stress as nearly all their players, and certainly their entire starting XI, are playing overseas rather than resting. This is an especially stressful time for Barça as every member of their attacking trio flies all the way to South America for their World Cup qualifiers.
Lionel Messi for Argentina, Neymar for Barzil and Luis Suarez represents... Read More
Be ready
Posted by jschario on 09/07/16
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It's the most, wonderful time, of the yeeeear!
No, it's not that time of year. Everyone knows the real most wonderful time of the year occurs as summer turns to fall, baseball starts to wind down, and football really kicks into gear.
Yes we have had four weeks of preseason, but that barely wets out palette. And sure, college football's return was glorious, with all the upsets and game turning plays. But the NFL is king in this land, and it certainly is in Seattle, regardless of the Huskies' top10 national ranking.
And something is happening in Seattle that no Seattle sports fan thought they... Read More
Posted by jschario on 09/06/16
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August 31 has come and gone, and some soccer players are breathing sighs of relief, while others are left to fume until at least January 1st.
No one can be fuming more than Real Madrid pair Isco and James Rodriguez. Once darlings at the Bernabeu, the gargantuan stadium has turned into the largest prison cell for the two as they have relegated to the bench. Isco had been linked with a move away from Madrid, with Tottenham Hotspur supposedly swooping in in the last week or so of the transfer window for an offer to take him on loan.
Alas however, it was not to be, as Isco reportedly rejected... Read More
Happy K-Pax Day
Posted by jemanji on 09/06/16
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The Mariners' stats page now has a direct (top) button for StatCast leaderboard. Mariners.org > Stats > and StatCast in on the far right. A few linkables:
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Nelson Cruz has the M's hardest hit ball of the year, 116 MPH on June 10th, which was an out. Which puts into perspective Giancarlo Stanton's 124 MPH shot (!!) on June 9th ... which was a double play. Stanton has hit 6 of the 7 hardest balls this year, all between 119 and 124 MPH. A pitcher gets hit by one of those, he can forget it.
Now I can relate to the old-timey stories from the third basemen who claimed they backed up... Read More
report from the trenches, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 09/06/16
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22 Comments
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The Counselor sez,
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The murder capitals of the United States in no particular order are Chicago, Camden, Baton Rouge, St. Louis and Detroit. Chicago had thirteen murders this weekend. Like Doc said, police violence is 5 percent of the problem. The biggest problems are young inner city mostly black men shooting each other, and bystanders, and other people who look like their enemies for inconsequential reasons.
I imagine that police in that sort of environment are often put in a few very sticky situations. Some police probably also become jaded and mean after a few too many gun... Read More
Fourth straight game with 40 points
Posted by jschario on 09/05/16
The Seattle football scene has not been this bright and optimistic since... well probably ever. At CenutryLink Field the Seattle Seahawks open up their year next weekend and are a popular Super Bowl pick, although they have been for several years now, and thus a simple prediction is not the excitement starter it used to be.
Up north over on Montlake at Husky Stadium, 2016 is without a doubt the most highly anticipated season in the Chris Peterson era, as they start the season ranked no. 14 in the country. All offseason college football analysts from various media outlets were even tabbing... Read More
Notable and surprising moves
Posted by jschario on 09/05/16
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Announcing the initial 53-man roster for any NFL team seems like a pointless exercise each year. Because we know that by mid-September, at least a few names on that 53 long list will already be different.
Still, when that list comes out, it is always fun to debate who was included, excluded and all the surprises.
Speaking of surprises, Jordan Hill's omission from the Seattle Seahawks' season opening team was somewhat surprising. A mainstay along the defensive line for years, he was a favorite of multiple defensive coordinators and Pete Carroll. He showed potential and his talent, but staying... Read More
inner peace ... inner peace ...
Posted by jemanji on 09/03/16
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4 Comments
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James had another Zen-like observation this week. I'm not a James fanboy by any stretch of the imagination. But I do have to give props where due.
It seems like every other day he tosses out another light bulb that would make a book for a lesser man, or at least a blog post... which is why he is the one man in baseball who can still command a huge pay audience for, basically, answering questions that should by all rights be searchable on the interwebs. He's the Freeman Dyson of baseball, an anachronism that still holds this generation of grad-student audiences as spellbound as he ever... Read More
this is what occurs when eight guys "look hitterish"
Posted by jemanji on 09/03/16
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6 Comments
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FOREGONE CONCLUSIONS, Dept.
There's a prevailing sentiment that blows a warm-but-sour breeze through the Seattle blog-o-sphere. That is, if he's a Seattle Mariners prospect, he'll fail. No, that's not quite the sentiment... the sentiment is more like, If he's a Seattle Mariners prospect his best case scenario is to fail at baseball. Dr. D is here to advise you that in Ben Gamel's case, this sentiment is a bit premature, because:
(1) Kyle Seager didn't fail
(2) Mike Zunino isn't failing
(3) Alvin Davis didn't fail, at least not early
(4) Michael Saunders didn't fail
(5) Brad Miller is... Read More
and who doesn't love the game-saving gapper?
Posted by jemanji on 09/03/16
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1 Comments
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RIDDLE ME THIS, Dept.
So Nori Aoki was fixed. Not "fixed" in the NBA Finals sense, but "fixed" in the car-repair shop sense. He was hitting a hard .316 in the second half, .316 with a whopping .362 on base percentage and .429 slugging average. That's a 120 OPS+, which, I never liked the Aoki concept in the first place. But assuming you DO like the Aoki concept in the first place, why do you fix him, let him get back to .316 and then elbow him smoothly off the curb just as a city bus goes by?
You have a cynical interpretation, an optimistic one, and a gutless one.
CYNICAL the Mariners... Read More
resistance is futile, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 09/03/16
Posted to blog
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From 7% to 9% Today, Dept.
From my cornball perspective ... the M's job is simple. They need to get to +10 games over .500 as fast as possible. There are a few things that make the next two weeks worth a look:
(1) They play feeble ballclubs in 8 of the next 12 games, those being the Angels (twice) and the A's. They've dug themselves the kind of hole where 8-4, preferably 9-3 (leaving them at 78-68) over those twelve games is necessary, and possibly sufficient.
(2) They got past their #8 starter tonight, have three good pitchers and one okay one, and then To Be Announced.
(3) Dae-Ho Lee... Read More
53-man rosters matter, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 09/02/16
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6 Comments
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Q. Does Jeremy Lane get a pass? Or is our 'recreational outrage' reserved for the 49ers?
A. I don't know that I'd characterize the SSI Kaepernick thread as overly emotional or motivated by indulgence. Seems more like intelligent discourse to me, responsibly carried out.
My own reaction to Jeremy Lane was just about the same as it was to Colin Kaepernick. Mostly, a roll of the eyes. There's a difference with Kaepernick, though. He has quite a bit of history, though, and chooses a pivotal moment (for him and the 49ers) to be controversial. Milton Bradley was a Mariner and I'd have... Read More
M's creating a wider pyramid base
Posted by jemanji on 09/02/16
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6 Comments
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Shannon Drayer's Aug. 29 blog post had material on the M's follow-thru in the minors this year, including:.
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How the near-worst to near-first turnaround has occurred is interesting. Coaches are setting hitting and pitching philosophies. Achievements are being acknowledged. Skills are being tracked and a style of play is being encouraged. You have heard about “C the Z” (Control the Zone), well, there is also “PTPA” – a.k.a productive team plate appearances – that are being tracked in a tournament bracket with individuals squaring off against each other to see who best contributes in the... Read More