October 2016
But how do they stack up against the rest of the best?
Posted by jschario on 10/31/16
Washington finally got its first win over a ranked opponent (apparently their win over Stanford when they were ranked seventh doesn't count now that they are out of the rankings), solidifying their place among the top four teams in the land.
Coming into the game, the Utes posed the biggest threat to Washington's dreams of an undefeated season and a spot in the College Football Playoff. And test them Utah did. Utah running back Joe Williams exploited the Huskies' only glaring weakness which is defending against the run. Williams gained 172 yards on 35 carries and overall the Huskies gave up... Read More
A 3-2 Home Team Win Started By A Left-Hander Born In Tacoma, WA
Posted by DaddyO on 10/30/16
8 Comments
Any one else getting niggled by World Series announcers hyping ridiculously qualified Series factoids?
These (admittedly exaggerated) fictional examples illustrate what I mean:
"This is only the fourth time in World Series history a right-handed pitcher has thrown more than two scoreless innings of relief on a Thursday when the gametime temperature started above 50 degrees but dipped below it during the game."
"This has NEVER happened before! A left-hander named Chapman facing a switch-hitter registers a pitch over 100 mph in a Wrigely Field Series game between 9 pm and 9:30 pm CST."
Just... Read More
Posted by jschario on 10/30/16
Posted to blog
This should have been a game where the offense got its mojo back, in particular Rusell Wilson and his receiving corps.
After struggling to get anything resembling continuity in their performance against the Arizona Cardinals, the Seahawks marched down to the Bayou to try their hand at the leagues worst defense against the pass. The Saints have never been known for their defensive prowess, even in their Super Bowl winning year they were more opportunistic than anything else. Getting as many turnovers as yards they gave up it seemed.
it was not to be however, as Russell almost pulled out some... Read More
Morata has the hot hand (or foot) at the moment
Posted by jschario on 10/30/16
Posted to blog
When you gather the world's best soccer players onto your club as if they were a set of trading cards such as how Real Madrid does, there are bound to be position battles and controversies.
Before the 2016-17 season began, one such position was bound to be for their number "9," where they have a log jam of supreme talent, boo hoo. On one hand in France international Karim Benzema, who has been entrenched there since he came over in 2009 from Lyon and forms an intregal part of the BBC attacking trident for manager Zinedine Zidane. Eagerly awaiting is young Spanish international Alvaro Morata,... Read More
Dr. D comes out of the quick-look pleasantly surprised
Posted by jemanji on 10/29/16
Posted to blog
2 Comments
.
Luke Arkins at Prospect Insider does some heavy lifting for us on the Boomstick subject. Hmmmm... have got it on my iPad but it doesn't show up on the desktop. Ah, well... hit prospectinsider.com and there's an Oct. 28th article titled "Can the M's get younger and still contend?"
....
Coupla first thoughts: the idea in the Seattle blog-o-sphere, about 5-10 years ago, was to dig up a Hardball Times or Baseball Prospectus piece on aging curves, and refer to that as the "correct" projection for any given player next year. Famously, the best saber site in the world did this to rip the... Read More
muchas gracias a Mr. Arkins for a well-thought-out launching point
Posted by jemanji on 10/29/16
Posted to blog
8 Comments
Adding up in simple terms, Luke came up with +5 -8 =2, for the guys who had the best age-35 years, in their following age-36 seasons. A few reactions:
(1) There's some tendency for the infielders-with-power, the guys with small frames who hit the ball hard, to cluster in the disappointing area.
(2) Age 36 is very, very old for a baseball player. No doubts there.
(3) John Benson Rule: A player is who he was when we last saw him, meaning, late last year. Nelson Cruz again finished very strongly, slugging .571 over the second half - despite injuries.
Bet you there'd be some tendency for... Read More
The M's got their share
Posted by jemanji on 10/29/16
Posted to blog
1 Comments
.
Musta been twenty years ago, more maybe, when Bob Costas stopped me short with a great line. "Michael Jordan is what you get when --- > you combine (1) a supreme talent with (2) an overachiever."
A strict dictionary definition of that is simply "one who has much more success than normal, especially at a young age." I like dictionaries, but that's one of the worst definitions I've ever heard. Overachievers are like Russell Wilson or Kyle Seager or Pete Carroll: people who exceeded their potential and ceilings, primarily because of attitude.
It's a little hard to understand why Russell... Read More
M's in great position to supplement Diaz
Posted by jemanji on 10/28/16
Posted to blog
3 Comments
.
Three or four diff'rnt MLBTR staffers had their own chats up this week. In no particular order, here is what THEY have to say:
.
(1) Chris Sale, Zack Greinke and Justin Verlander the most likely Opening Day starters to be dealt. But Sale will take 3x Top 100 type prospects, say they
.
(2) Jeff Todd likes Jackie Bradley Jr. for a young ace :: ahem :: Paxton or Taijuan and ?
.
(3) The Grand Free Agent Tour centers around Orlando Cespedes, says Todd
.
(4) Zack Cozart will bring lots of offers because of industry need at the position
.
(5) Odorizzi would be easier to trade for than Archer,... Read More
but can he follow Pat Venditte out of the pen
Posted by jemanji on 10/28/16
Posted to blog
2 Comments
.
Q. More "more," or more "less" in Dr. D's book?
A. Probably more "less."
Last he pitched in the bigs was 2013, which would be fine by us. George Sherrill was an Indy League pitcher and one of yer all-time Grabs. What the mainframe could live without, however, is the 75-80% "cut fastballs" and the 87 MPH top end. This is what constituted Owings' repertoire at last sighting.
Dr. D moans and whimpers and whines even when cut fastballs are the best in the business, as Nick Vincent's in fact is. Dr. D is sick to the gut with Danny Farquhar and Arquimedes Caminero and 18 other kinds of... Read More
... after 50 starts, that is
Posted by jemanji on 10/28/16
Posted to blog
1 Comments
.
Luke Arkins at Prospect Insider with a great set of tables comparing Paxton's first 50 starts to every other lefty's. Plot spoiler: Paxton's were better.
...
By "every other lefty" we mean, like, 2 Kershaw 3 Price 4 Hamels 5 Lester 6 CC 7 Cliff Lee, with Paxton coming first. That's the ERA chart. The next chart in, we hit Fielding-Independent Pitching (FIP) for 2016, and find Paxton first in the American League.
But the chart after that strews out the HOF'ers by age at 50 starts, and Paxton was the only 27-year-old among them. Kershaw and C.C., for example, were 21.
...
(1) Which... Read More
Dealing with a torn pec
Posted by jschario on 10/27/16
Posted to blog
I flip open my laptop today, check out the latest sports headlnes after dinkin' around on Facebook for what ended up being an hour plus, and read that Russell Wilson is dealing with yet another injury. For the second day in a row, Wilson was listed as a limited practice participant, the very first time in his football life he has been limited in practice.
Injuries seem to be a recurring theme this season for Russ, no doubt the result of taking countless hits due to a pourous offensive line unit the past couple years. Just imagine how banged up he would be if he had never don all the... Read More
Capt. Canada has a bullseye on his back
Posted by jemanji on 10/27/16
Posted to blog
4 Comments
If you missed the memo earlier this year, Howard Lincoln and Nintendo appeared to pass off the baton to John Stanton and Chris Larson, who are 'fed up with mediocrity'.
.
SUPER TWO 2017
Tim Dierkes relays the Super Two cut off as 1 year, 131 days. This puts both Paxton and Taijuan well into 22% of "second year players" who get treatment as having contributed for a full year, which is only fair, since they threw 120 and 134 innings respectively. The guess is that this will leave them making about $2.7M+ apiece next season. In some ways, an M's fan might almost hope that would be good for... Read More
Opens up Copa del Rey play
Posted by jschario on 10/26/16
Posted to blog
The Copa del Rey, what a great tournament. If you are not a fan of Real Madrid or Barcelona, it presents your team with the opportunity to hoist a trophy at the end of the year. Or if you happen to be a fan of one of the lower division clubs that start out in the tournament, it presents your club - of whom some of the players may be your relatives - the chance to share the pitch with some of the best players in the continent, if not the world.
Although if you indeed are a madridista or blaugrana, the Copa del Rey presents your with the opportunity to watch your squad's B team get some run.... Read More
Third game without a touchdown
Posted by jschario on 10/25/16
Posted to blog
With 48 hours to digest the devastating tie (never thought I'd write that in a football column) on Sunday night, we'll spare Steven Hauschka more scrutiny. Although the past season plus to the naked eye has not seemed as automatic as he once did. But that's a topic for another day.
Rather there should be a debate about whether or not the offense has enough to get this Seahawks team to the Super Bowl for the third time in four seasons. After Sunday, the Seahawks have now failed to reach pay dirt in three games - and they have only played six. For those not numerically inclined, that's half... Read More
Posted by jschario on 10/24/16
Sure, the Huskies faced Stanford when they were ranked seventh in the country. And of course, they turned around and had a rivalry game in Eugene against the Ducks. However, their biggest test of the season comes this Saturday in Salt Lake City against the Utah Utes.
Utah presents a unique challenge that this reincarnation of the Huskies have yet to face this year. Stanford was ranked higher, but we have seen the Cardinal field a completely uncompetitive team against the UW and then turnaround and play just as bad against the Cougars the very next weekend. Therefore, it's apparent that... Read More
and Dr. D is cc'ed on the Zack Cozart deal, at long last
Posted by jemanji on 10/24/16
Posted to blog
14 Comments
.
FOOTBALL VERSION OF ROCKY II (if Rocky had needed one more count, causing a draw)
Dr. D's stream of consciousness (non-)thoughts on the Seahawk game, which you amigos (and jschario - see his report in the football area) can improve with little or no effort:
1) Have never been more proud of a single defensive effort. Pete Carroll also at halftime was seen jumping around high-fiving his attack dogs. Remember Buddy Ryan leaving the Bears and telling his men through tears "You guys are my heroes!" ? How many plays did they defend, like 90? I never really believed in a Seahawk defense the... Read More
Posted by jschario on 10/23/16
Posted to blog
Something was off the entire game in Phoenix for the Seahawks offense. I had not really seen Rusell Wilson inhibited by his knee injury like he seemed to be against the Cardinals.
Compounding the passing game's struggles was the offensive line getting flagged for holding time and time again. Niether side could really get anything going, however if you compare the stats, see that Arizona registered 300 yards of offense and possessed the ball for about 40 minutes compared to the Seahawks 22 or so.
But the defense kept on coming through, getting to Carson Palmer when they needed to most, and... Read More
Posted by jschario on 10/23/16
Posted to blog
After the ninth week of games in the Spanish Primera División, there were quite a number of changes to the league table as the partiy amongst the top teams showed itself this weekend.
Atlético Madrid came into the weekend as the league leaders, but retreat back to the capital from Sevilla in fifth place. Diego Simeone went toe-to-toe against his fellow Argentinian Jorge Sampaoli on the other sideline. Unfortunately for Simeone, his side could not pull any points out of the visit to the Sanchez Pizjuan.
Samuel Nasri proved himself to be a shrewd pick up for Sevilla FC, supplying the creativity... Read More
Baseball is about the strike zone ... and a 908 OPS is okay too
Posted by jemanji on 10/21/16
Posted to blog
6 Comments
.
From Jeff Sullivan's Friday chat:
.
9:31
Jeff: Al Avila is hinting at winter trades for Detroit and says no extension plans exist for JD Martinez. If he’s a trade candidate, what could he return?
9:32
Jeff Sullivan: So you’d be talking about one year of a prime-aged corner outfielder
9:32
Jeff Sullivan: Martinez is 29 and over the past three years he has something like a 145 wRC+
9:33
Jeff Sullivan: He doesn’t run so well, and he doesn’t defend so well, but he’s kind of like what people think Carlos Gonzalez is. On a one-year deal, Martinez might get $25 – 30 million... Read More
Posted by jschario on 10/21/16
Husky fans are gearing up to experience a homecoming Montlake probably has not seen in at least 24 years, with the team riding a wave of momentum after knocking off then no. 7 Stanford and hanging 70 on the rival Oregon Ducks at Autzen Stadium.
24 years because this Husky team, ranked fifth in the country, are off to their best start since 1992. They are more than living up to the preseason hype, and to say many saw this level of play from them would have to be crazy. We knew the defense would be a strength, we knew Jake Browning would take a step forward in his development, but to be the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/21/16
Posted to blog
9 Comments
.
Intriguing. Billy is confident that Dipoto (thanks Diderot!) will be on the phone with the Pirates about Mc Clutch, and confident that the Pirates are open to talks. In my own addled mind, this moves a Mc C follow to the front of the stove, as Zoom puts it. Summarizing his suggestions:
1) The Pirates need a SS and possibly a 1B (and obviously a small-market team loves cheap ML-ready talent)
2) Hyper-logical would be a KKKKarns-Marte-'Bach deal (and the Pirates have always liked 'Bach)
3) If that ain't quite enough to win the auction, you could reluctantly swap in Taijuan for KKKKarns
4)... Read More
weeee are fam a leee, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 10/21/16
Posted to blog
.
The Millenials here probably have no idea that -in baseball- "We Are Family" is hip. Not magoo. There's a reason for that; you could look it up.
.
Notice that the J.D. Martinez post is nested within the SSI "blog" Hot Stove, which means you can click on its Hot Stove button (top right) and quickly jump to all the similar articles. (This little post has the "Dr's R/X" button top right.)
Other blogs within the over-arcing Seattle Sports Insider: Baseball area include --- > Sabermetrics, Aiki Mechanics, Player of the Day (POTD), Dr's Prognosis, Mariners Minor Talk, and so forth. Also... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 10/21/16
Posted to blog
2 Comments
.
The Hot Stove post yesterday, on McCutcheon, drew the most interest.
That weirds me out, since November through January is supposed to be about Dr. D and not about the Hot Stove. But: have it your own way. I've got nothing against publicity stunts, so here is a bit of MLB Trade Rumors chat. Edited for your convenience.
.
Prich
2:07
Pirates pick of Walker *or* Paxton for Bell... Who says no?
Jeffrey Todd
2:08
Given that he kinda doesn't have a position, I don't think Bell has shown quite enough as a hitter in the minors to warrant that kind of return. Walker/Paxton are both established... Read More
Dr. D gloms on to every possible signal out of M's HQ
Posted by jemanji on 10/21/16
Posted to blog
1 Comments
.
Last thing from Jeffrey Todd's chat, for us as M's fans, was
.
Jerry D
3:13
Any other good SS trade options aside from Cozart?
Jeffrey Todd
3:14
I'd say Villar is probably the best potentially available player, though MIL isn't going to just take good value in a deal. They'll ask for the moon. Otherwise, you're maybe looking at guys like Jose Iglesias, Danny Espinosa -- poor hitters with good gloves.
.
At My Northwest, Scott Servais commented on Ketel Marte's situation. He said a lot of very polite things, and then gave us his thoughts:
.
“Young player, he’s growing, he’s... Read More
Tank catching serious air in the AFL
Posted by jemanji on 10/20/16
Posted to blog
2 Comments
.
Moe sez,
.
Just for fun, I went to the Southern League batting leaders pages at B-R. Wanted to see how 21 year olds who hit "like" O'Neill (north of .800) fared when they made it to the bigs, seeing significant playing time, at age 22. I only looked at 21 year olds...ignired some 20 year olds and one 19 year old.
I initially looked at 2005, picking it randomly because it wasn't too far back and might give us some decent data. Thien I went to 2006. Then I jumped to '12 and '13 just to make it more recent.
2005 had bunch of hitting 21'ers who played a decent amount in the bigs at 22. ... Read More
Gamel and Heredia deepen the roster, but fall short of a Fountain metaphor
Posted by jemanji on 10/20/16
Posted to blog
6 Comments
.
If you are reading this, or perhaps, an off-blog Mariners fan has begged you to read it to him, then you are aware that Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz are good are pretty much the perfect #3 and #4 hitters. They are perfect hitters except for the fact that at least one of them is likely to not be a perfect hitter in the medium term.
Hence Jerry DiPoto's recent comments that his vision is for a much younger roster. Soonest.
....
[Birdwalk ensues] Remind your friend that there are big problems with a "Lawyer-Committee GM," and, in fact, with any committee. Committees are not agile; they... Read More
Let's try this Zuumball thing again - this time in an ML organization
Posted by jemanji on 10/19/16
Posted to blog
2 Comments
EDITOR'S CHOICE: TACOMA RAIN ON STEVE CLEVENGER
.
I think if Dipoto was already thinking about cutting / non-tendering Clevenger before the comments, then he should have cut the ties then.
Dipoto has a very good idea what the M's roster is going to look like for the Rule 5 draft right now. There may be one or two decisions to be made, but Clevenger is not one of them... and he never was. Either the decision has been made to keep him on the 40 man, and store him in Tacoma because at $800K he is somewhat of an asset... or he is going to be non-tendered. There is no way this incident should... Read More
hey, don't everybody jump for my 0.7 WAR at one time
Posted by jemanji on 10/19/16
Posted to blog
12 Comments
.
Dr. D cheerfully admits that he's infatuated with Billy Zoom's comments. His latest sat in the pool filter for a day and a half, so we'll make it up to him by mangling his intentions:
.
My first choice is Andrew McCutcheon rumored to be on his way out of Pittsburgh after a dismal (or abysmal?) year.
Not so long ago he was an All Star, his contract is affordable (and after this year, he could be coming and get an extension in the process).
You numbers nit pickers might not like what you are finding is his aging hair but his recent quotes don't sound like this guy is ready to quit to me. ... Read More
Guardiola returns to the Camp Nou, Real and Atleti still on top
Posted by jschario on 10/19/16
Posted to blog
Another week, another week of the status quo in the Spanish top flight soccer league. Sometimes the Spanish league can be boring, or at least as boring as a league featuring names like Leo Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo, Gareth Bale and Neymar could ever be.
Though it is boring in the sense that there are three teams that are all but guaranteed to absolutely whallop their opponents unless it's one of the teams in the top five of the table. And that's exactly what happened over the weekend for Barcelona, Atlético Madrid and Real Madrid.
All three played last Sunday, with Barcelona playing Deportivo... Read More
Posted by jschario on 10/16/16
Originally this post was going to have a completely different tone. But just like a team's storyline bounces between extremes week to week, the Seahawks' precision on the field does so quarter to quarter.
Had things continued as it had been going through long a vast majority of the second half, we would be spending our time reading about all the ways the Hawks blew it, but preaching the mantra of "it's still early." However Russell and co. got it back together just in time and were able to finish the game how they started. What's more, if they hadn't, we would be talking about how the... Read More
... are those the servants' quarters?
Posted by jemanji on 10/15/16
Posted to blog
14 Comments
.
Moe Dawg had pushed the idea of Fowler to Seattle. In Jeff Sullivan's chat yesterday, one of his crew axed him where he guessed Fowler would be; he tossed out the idea of Texas in CF or Seattle "in a corner."
Here is a mid-August SB Nation article out of Chicago, wondering whether Cubbies fans would prefer an Aroldis Chapman vs Dexter Fowler re-sign. Quite the splash paradigm even to start with, but more amazingly, Cubs fans chose Fowler.
.
We’ve all heard how good the Cubs are with Fowler in the lineup, and losing him in the offseason would be a big blow to the Cubs offense. Fowler is... Read More
M's strike zone control, and W's, headed North for next y'ar
Posted by jemanji on 10/15/16
Posted to blog
2 Comments
.
In August 2012, James published a meaty research piece called "Strike Zone Control and Wins." He used complex metrics to find that K/BB ratio predicts team wins very nicely, and especially it predicts success the next season.
....
We could plug all the numbers into a spreadsheet to assess the 2016 Mariners. Or, we could point out that:
The offense was 9th in strikeouts (good) and 6th in walks (good), and
The defense was 6th in strikeouts (good) and 3rd in walks (very good).
But we take it one step farther, and we notice that the offense was 2nd in homers (excellent), this being in Safeco... Read More
Posted by jschario on 10/15/16
Posted to blog
Longtime US national team goal keeper and one-time captain Tim Howard recently called young US starlet Christian Pulisic a "prodigy." And while that may not be much of a stretch, it brings up the notion that Pulisic could be the best player to ever come out of the United States.
"I think Christian is what you call a prodigy. I think every now and again, every 10 or 15 years or so, you get one of those. It's hard to explain how he's so talented, why he's so talented, why he's so fearless at such a young age. It's not normal."
Landon Donovan is widely regarded as the best American ever, and he... Read More
If it doesn't, it should
Posted by jemanji on 10/15/16
Posted to blog
2 Comments
.
NFL announcers are always talking about how Chip Kelly's* defenses get too tired to play effectively. BJOL readers scoff at this; if the offensive linemen are on the field for 63 plays and the defensive linemen also out there for 63 plays, why would the defensive end be more tired than the tackle? And, to boot, the DL is more likely to rotate ...
To no one's surprise, or at least not mine, James was contrarian on this and he was also right. In a recent Hey Bill he pointed out, simply, that the defense must be prepared for options A, B, C, and D, while the offense simply had to be... Read More
Of peace, joy and red stitching
Posted by jemanji on 10/15/16
Posted to blog
18 Comments
.
There's an old story about an art competition, with the theme of "Peace." One guy painted a meadow and small pond. Another guy painted gentle clouds in the sky. The guy who won painted a raging storm, and a cliff, and in a crag of the cliff a nest, in which a mother dove comforted her chicks.
... sudden thought. You think we should warm the hot stove with an Impressionistic Art Club korner? With the required punch line being a 2016 player stat connected to the doggerel commentary we put on it? Dr. D will start. Monet's "Soleil," let's go with point 5 below.
Always admired the... Read More
Reminding us more and more of Justin Smoak every day
Posted by jemanji on 10/15/16
Posted to blog
15 Comments
.
We're about a week or two behind the events here, but in the morning we like to offer the alert reader his choice of bacon and eggs, oatmeal, or calamari with mint sauce.
As you might have noticed, Steve Clevenger tweeted provocatively on the anti-Black Lives Matter side of the rioting issue in North Carolina. Now, most sportswriters tend to need little information past "did I like the tweet or did I dislike it," as was the case with this "Take Out the Trash" article.
.....
Niners Nation has some good reads up, like 40-50 of them, asserting Colin Kaepernick's right to peaceful protest. In... Read More
drumroll, please
Posted by jemanji on 10/14/16
Posted to blog
5 Comments
.
Wrote the post and only then found the Oct. 12, 2016 vid outta the AFL. I shoulda just posted this video and left it at that. :- D
The MLBFarm.com site has Thyago Vieira hitting 102 MPH in the AFL, and averaging a hundred. Well, 99.4, on a good solid 14-count's worth of fastballs. Bob links us up to this chart, and doesn't mention that Luiz Gohara (our CC Sabathia hopeful) is also averaging 97+. I've heard good things about lefties who slam 97 with regularity.
The same site had Vieira averaging 79 MPH (-20 MPH) on his slider. According to them, he had the 14 fastballs at a hundred,... Read More
And not just ANY links. SSI links. Booyeah.
Posted by jemanji on 10/14/16
Posted to blog
.
PROSPECT INSIDER
Has a sweet new look. Not only is it clean, but it's patriotic and sports the all-important "carousel" feature. No word on whether Jason is going to attempt a wacky avatar. Probably best not to dig base camps at mountains that promise only tragedy and despair.
Jason's right-hand man Luke Arkins does a little season-2016 flyover in this piece. I hadn't been aware that Ketel Marte's mono cost him 22 pounds during the season, had you? It's one thing if Dae-Ho Lee or Dr. D loses 16 lbs. It's another thing if Jon Heder loses two stone. Well, okay. That would explain the... Read More
The best science is the simplest science, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 10/14/16
Posted to blog
5 Comments
.
A couple of days ago, Dave Studeman published us the kindsa charts we likey. This one plots the quality of your favorite team, which had better not be the Texas Rangers:
.
Runs Scored and Allowed, 2016, AL
.
You notice the dashed line that runs from top left to bottom right. All .500 teams would be on this line, if all bases gained were equal. The .500 teams that won abd lost their games 3-1 -- like Daddy-O's 1964 Dodgers (80-82) we presume -- would be very top left.
The .500 teams that won and lost their games 13-9 -- like the 2010 Colorado Rockies, keyed by Miguel Olivo but also... Read More
#2 on my hit list, with a rocket
Posted by moethedog on 10/13/16
6 Comments
Matt and I are all over a Dexter Fowler addition, as you know.
Of course, I'm sure the Cubbies would love to keep him, considering he costs them only $9M if they re-up him and $5M if they let him go.
So the question is whether he exercises the Mutual Option and hits the road, Jack. I bet he will. He was just worth 4.4 WAR and he will want to take advantage of that. He'll get multi-years and it will be north of $14M per. My bet, anyway.
But let's just assume he stays in Chi-town. Maybe the Cubs win it all and he likes the mojo they have going. Or maybe he renegotiates with the home team... Read More
There's comps, and then there's SSI comps
Posted by jemanji on 10/13/16
Posted to blog
4 Comments
.
Five years ago, the 26-year-old Matt Kemp hit .324/.399/.586 for the Los Angeles Dodgers, and also swiped 40 bases. So, you had a very fast 172 OPS+ outfielder who hit 39 homers, had 126 RBI, and 115 runs scored. Nelson Cruz crossed with ... I dunno, Ichiro Suzuki?
Something seemed fishy about Matt Kemp at that time, the something fishy perhaps being that he'd never previously had a 130 OPS+ season. But the Dodgers signed him to an 8 X $20MM deal, these being $20M in five-years-ago terms. Kemp was the #2 MVP that year, and got All-Star votes again at age 27.
Bill James was asked to... Read More
Posted by jschario on 10/12/16
Posted to blog
The only memorable time I can remember the Falcons playing the Seahawks was, yes you guessed it, in the 2012 playoffs. The Hawks seemingly had tons of momentum after knocking off the NFC East champion Washington Redskins, who had Robert Griffin III at the height of his powers.
Then in came the Atlanta Falcons hosting the Hawks in the Georgia Dome, dashing their Super Bowl hopes before having their own ripped away in the NFC Championship game against the 49ers.
This time it's the Falcons playing visitor, traveling cross-country to play the Seahawks at Century Link. Not many teams can handle... Read More
Sposed to be the EZest Yahtzee slots to fill, ain't they?
Posted by jemanji on 10/12/16
Posted to blog
10 Comments
Sez Moe Dawg:
15 things to think about if you're as ready for '17 as I am.
Aoki is incredibly consistent. In 5 MLB seasons, he's never hit more than .288, never less that .283 (,288-.286-.285-.287-.283). His OBP has never been less than .349 or more than .356 (.355-.356-.349-.353-.349). And minus his Ruthian (for him) rookie season he's slugged between .360 and .388) .370-.360-.380-.388). Clockwork!
If you bring him back next year, you certainly know what you're going to get. Bad glove and all.
.
Sez the Mainframe:
Which raises the question ... siggggghhhhhh. the 'Frame didn't care for... Read More
Scoring as much as the basketball team
Posted by jschario on 10/10/16
Have the Washington Huskies ever been this good?
Were they not supposed to be this good when the state of Washington's prodigal athlete son Jake Locker took the reigns as a redshirt freshman back in 2007? Of course they never were, and certainly never sniffed these heights under Steve Sarkisian. And while the final score may have been 70-21, it was never even really that close.
The Huskies were already up 21-0 by the time the first quarter had even finished, but the Ducks did make it interesting when they clawed to get seven points on the board and even made a few stops after to get the crowd... Read More
Spain no longer what they were
Posted by jschario on 10/09/16
Posted to blog
The Spanish National Soccer team may be a the top of their group standings, but they have not done so with the flair they played with in what seems like a distant era.
Back now three managers ago, in the time of the late Luis Aragones, La Furia Roja introduced the tiki-taka into the world's consciousness. At that time, with Xavi and Iniesta still on the ascent towards their peak powers, and Fernando Torres the most coveted finisher in the world, they were dynamic with the ball and making the right attacks on goal with precision.
Now, they are still holding onto the tiki-taka, under new... Read More
Worth about 2 cents
Posted by moethedog on 10/09/16
10 Comments
15 things to think about if you're as ready for '17 as I am.
1. Aoki is incredibly consistent. In 5 MLB seasons, he's never hit more than .288, never less that .283 (,288-.286-.285-.287-.283). His OBP has never been less than .349 or more than .356 (.355-.356-.349-.353-.349). And minus his Ruthian (for him) rookie season he's slugged between .360 and .388) .370-.360-.380-.388). Clockwork!
If you bring him back next year, you certainly know what you're going to get. Bad glove and all.
2. B-R says that the M's are "leaning" towards keeping Smith around for his $7M option. One statistic may... Read More
SSI, your one-stop shop for true multicultural baseball
Posted by jemanji on 10/07/16
Posted to blog
2 Comments
.
RANDOM BASEBALL SNIPPETS
Moe Dawg's article on Eric Thames was linked up on SportSpyder. As was this very recent FanGraphs article on Thames. Just now hitting 30, it's worth their mention that Thames stole 40 bases in 2015. Thanks to Jeon Jun-Ho, the "Stolen Base King of Korea" who was his first base coach.
.
In his Friday FanGraphs chat, Jeff Sullivan was asked to project Aroldis Chapman's next deal. His reply, "Nine figures" and Dr. D adds that's on the condition you can guess which restaurant he wants for his free agent stopover in Seattle.
Edwin Diaz has never looked better. Are... Read More
Dr. D can always find a way to synch politics with catchers' mitts
Posted by jemanji on 10/07/16
Posted to blog
32 Comments
.
This will probably be the last I excerpt James for a while, but it also is (1) awesome, (2) directly related to what Grizzly and Diderot were talking about, and (3) draws parallels to baseball. How could we not. :- )
The first except is from a Nov. 25, 2012 article, not Hey Bill, but an article ... $3 per month to sign up here ... remember now this is in reference to the Obama-Romney election, not this year's election.
The second is from last June's Hey Bills. Okay, the second and third.
.
JAMES SEZ
64 million votes to 60 million.
People will tell you that the man who designed the... Read More
Pictured below: 0.5 WAR in 2016
Posted by jemanji on 10/07/16
Posted to blog
26 Comments
.
STARRY, STARRY SKY Dept.
What are the odds of these three things happening (again) in 2017?
(1) Robinson Cano hitting .300, with 30-35-plus homers -- HIT and PWR galore -- while playing 161 games?
(2) Nelson Cruz hitting 43 homers!, with everything else he does at the plate (147 OPS+) -- that is, remaining baseball's #1 home run hitter? 155 games?
(3) Kyle Seager slugging .499 with a 133 OPS+? For 158 games?
(4) Only a handful of the Mariners' 25-odd position players being liabilities in the least?
It was a starry night out last year, especially down the stretch. The forecast for... Read More
Brexits, Walls, and Faith in Joe Mainstreet
Posted by jemanji on 10/07/16
Posted to blog
22 Comments
From Hey Bill, back in June. Underlines are my own. See first comment for my own little followon.
...
Hey, Bill, you wrote about the decision in Britain to leave the UK "but you might note that this decision was not made by bureaucrats, but by the people." I don't think anyone has suggested that bureaucrats did or should make such a decision, but to me the interesting question is whether elected representatives rather than the people should make such a decision. To me, the idea of electing a representative is to find someone whose worldview I like and whose integrity I trust and say... Read More
can't somebody get this guy a raise
Posted by jemanji on 10/07/16
Posted to blog
.
Just when you thought you'd seen everything from Dr. D. The words Epic, Mariner, and 2015 Defense* together in one (fragmented) sentence. And you thought you could stop me. No, you can only hope to contain me.
....
James was asked a great question last week. Hey, with so much shifting, wouldn't the great shortstop be devalued? Personally I thought the question was understated. Might not the changing conditions of the game make the light hitting, great defensive shortstop obsolete?
He floored me when he replied, "If that was theoretically true, I would think it would only be true at... Read More
They better end their Oregon losing streak
Posted by jschario on 10/06/16
While Eugene may be a familiar town for the Huskies, they are in fact heading into unchartered territory. Saturday they march into Autzen Stadium not only as the fifth ranked team in the nation, but as favorites against the rival Oregon Ducks.
For so often and so long, the roles were reversed, the Ducks highly ranked, talking national championship, and the Huskies simply aiming for a winning season. Now Washington goes south with a high powered offense of their own, blowing out opponents and with the College Football Playoffs just within reach.
The Huskies come to town riding an eight-game... Read More
Posted by jschario on 10/05/16
Posted to blog
Leagues around Europe are taking the week off to accommodate for the FIFA World Cup qualifiers taking place this week. For Spanish giants Real Madrid and Barcelona, they hope that the time away provides their players with a much needed mental break after a tough stretch of league games the past couple weeks.
On the other hand, teams at their level always are biting their nails until after the break, as nearly their entire rosters are out on international duty. That means they are with different doctors, training staff and of course, coaches.
Without any action to speculate on, debate or... Read More
POTD: Eric Thames
Posted by moethedog on 10/05/16
14 Comments
Eric Thames, former Mariner/Blue Jay/Oriole must like Korean cooking; he has gone nuts with the bat since heading across the Pacific in 2014. In three seasons his WORST BA/OBP/SLG and HR line looks like this: .317/.422/.676 and 37. Now that wasn't his worst season, but the worst individual numbers he had in any one season. He's been pretty dang good! The worst single season he had was in '16. His OPS was only 1.101! He's hit 37, 47 and 40 HR's.
OK, so the KBO isn't the AL East.
But Jung Ho Kang, now of the Pirates and with a .838 MLB OPS in two seasons, didn't come close to hitting... Read More
Posted by jschario on 10/04/16
Posted to blog
Sometimes the bye week for an NFL team can't come soon enough, other times it comes just as they are gaining some needed momentum. For the Seahawks, the Week 5 bye is both.
First, it could not come soon enough because they are trying to get some key players healthy quickly. Of course, there's Russell Wilson, on who's health their entire season hinges on - 2016 more than any other before. Tyler Lockett has played only 34 snaps the past two weeks with either a knee sprain or PCL tear, depending on who you talk to. Ever the optimist, Pete Carroll says Locket should be back at or near full speed... Read More
Buying In from the Jump, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 10/04/16
Posted to blog
11 Comments
.
JUMPING TO CONCLUSIONS
James did a study this week on Bryce Harper's majestic season. He came up with a method to evaluate "flukiness" in a baseball career. You remember Brady Anderson having that 50-homer season at age 32?
Turns out that Jacoby Ellsbury had the flukiest season of any player who ever lived. Remember 2011, when Ellsbury hit .321/.371/.556 with 39 steals, 119 runs scored, 32 homers, 105 RBI? And he had 1.8 WAR on defense in center field!
That added up to 9.4 Wins Above Replacement, which is the same WAR as Kyle Seager and Nelson Cruz got this year if you add them... Read More
Or if you do, get a wraparound band for your shades
Posted by jemanji on 10/04/16
Posted to blog
1 Comments
.
SABRMatt (and Taro) sez,
.
The Rangers in the first half played extremely lucky. Then they traded for ALL THE PLAYERS and got Yu Darvish back.
.
Definitely they made the big trades in the summer.
Also interesting, though, that their batting splits were the same 1H and 2H, that is, a 755 OPS in both halves. They added Darvish, of course, who pitched great, but their other pitchers' problems got almost worse. Their pitching splits were 4.44 ERA first half, 4.31 ERA second half, with a 2.5 CTL ratio in the second half compared to 1.9 in the second.
Can certainly buy the idea that they were... Read More
but I'm not seeing a lot of runs on these white boards yet, gentlemen
Posted by jemanji on 10/03/16
Posted to blog
14 Comments
.
IN JAMES WE TRUST - ALL OTHERS MUST BRING DATA, Dept.
First, a little table:
.
AL West Ballclub
Run Differential
OPS+
ERA+
Actual W
Actual L
Zen Agitation Factor (xZAF)
Seattle
+59
106
102
86
76
Houston
+23
102
98
84
78
Tejas
+8 (yep)
96
103
95 ?!
67
LA of Anaheim
-10
101
93
74
88
Orcs
-108
93
88
69
93
.
MONEYBALL, Dept.
Let us all take a moment and assume Zen position. Body relaxed and seated. Spine upright or forward is fine, but leaning back will cause sleep and/or vertigo. Eyes open and gaze down. You might find it helpful to assume a slight smile, which indeed promotes... Read More
Proprioception, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 10/03/16
Posted to blog
.
Jerry DiPoto had said that he acquired Ariel Miranda due to his athleticism. Dr. D asked for suggestions as to what that could possibly mean for a baseball pitcher!? Baseball PLAYERS ain't athletes. And that being the case, what do we say about tall, geeky, uncoordinated left handers who make a fielding error once a week and who throw 99 miles per hour, such as Randy Johnson and James Paxton?
Didycel gave us this sparkling answer:
.
DIDYCEL SEZ
To me, we are all "athletes", but I know that at the elite level of sports, a special confluence of factors must come together for an... Read More
Barcelona loses to Celta Vigo
Posted by jschario on 10/02/16
Posted to blog
The 2016-17 campaign has not gone as expected or as hoped for any of Spain's big three clubs - Atlético Madrid, Barcelona and Real Madrid. Atlético got off to a rough start, starting out the season with a string of ties, Real Madrid has ended its past four matches domestic and European in a draw and Barcelona just lost its second match already.
Atleti has managed to climb back atop the table, drawing even at 15 points with Real Madrid and ahead based on goal differential, although the big shocker this weekend was Barça losing to Celta Vigo. Traveling to Galicia Sunday, they dropped three... Read More
Posted by jschario on 10/02/16
The Washington Huskies defnitely had a nice weekend, watching the rest of the country battle it out as they knew who had the most impressive win of the weekend already. That's because they played in it. And they won it, of course.
44-6 reads less like a match up of two top-10 programs, and more like a top-10 bringing in a fodder program for an early season tune up. Everyone up-and-down the west coast and throughout the country never anticipated the Huskies the make it laugher, especially not the Stanford Cardinal.
Leading up to Friday night, everyone was subtlety playing up the Cardinal to... Read More
chat thread
Posted by jemanji on 10/01/16
Posted to blog
.
O's 3, NYY 7
The Orioles took a 3-0 lead early, but Wade Miley -- cruising to a 9-strikeout performane -- gave the Yankee$ a run in the 5th for 3-1. Then, in the 6th inning, Miley gave up singles to Butler and Refsnyder ... coaching visit to mound ... Chase Headley doubles in another run. 3-2 Orioles.
In the 7th, Miley coughed up a leadoff dinger and POOF the Orioles' celebrations were back on ice. Another single and Miley was outta dere.
In the bottom of the 8th inning, bullpen time, the Yankees went Walk - Double - Single - (5-3 NYY) - K - Walk - Double (7-3 NYY) - groundout. Dellin... Read More
we'll re-timestamp it each day
Posted by jemanji on 10/01/16
Posted to blog
2 Comments
.
In the Tacoma News Tribune, they are making noises like Dan Vogelbach is the Opening Day first baseman in 2017. Lind appears to be gone, and if Dae-Ho Lee is here it looks to be a type of platoon again. (DiPoto also made noises like Leonys Martin is the center fielder for next year, Ben Gamel / Guillemo Heredia platoons notwithstanding.
DiPoto takes it as a foregone conclusion that Vogelbach will hit; at the moment is is simply "out of gas" and "tense" having his first cup of coffee. But "he doesn't swing at bad pitches ever" and the Mariners are sold on his .417 OBP with 23 homers and... Read More