Q. Postscript: did you see that cyber-Seattle wants him?

A. LOL. I hadn't read the 'net before we wrote this, except for a couple of posts where MFan and somebody were arguing about his party personality.

I kid you not, it never. ceases. to. amaze. me. How different guys can look at the same painting and see two completely different things.

Swisher has been a 4.5 - 6.4 run a game corner player, getting it done in the TTO flavor. That's all. Take away the Moneyball aura and Swisher is one of about a zillion guys who can give you 5.5, 6.0 runs at first base.

Except here you're not bringing him in as a Branyan-type value Scrub for those 5.5, 6.0 runs at 1B; you're making him a pillar of the franchise? No sale.

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Q.  Is there a strong case to be made for Swisher?

A. Sure.  And Matty makes it:

*sigh*

You don’t see value in a 6 RC/27 lefty in Safeco who can play pretty well on defense (his SX is low because he PLAYED FOR OAKLAND! They don’t run, Doc. They don’t even try!) at three corners and even pitch in in CF if you are in dire need? You don’t think he’d be worth trading Michael Saunders or someone of that ilk for?

And no, I don’t think the Yankees would be demanding Triunfel or Pineda or Aumont or anything splashy like that. Hea CHEAP…long term solution…a building block in the sense of being reliable enough to know what you have. No one would call him a stud…but he’s certainly a “minor star” and the kind of thing you love to have at 5 mi/year. He’s signed through 2012! You can’t beat that with a stick.

SX is based on triples, CS%, GIDP, and a lot of stuff. SB quantity is the only decision-oriented factor counted by SX.

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I wouldn’t mind a 6 RC/27 corner player if the alternative is Endy Chavez, but as we’ve seen with Russ Branyan, it’s not like you need to be committing big bucks, or giving the team clubhouse, to a guy who gives you 6 a game from first base or left field.

And that’s IF Swisher rebounds. He has to increase last year’s production by 33% to get to 6. … I’m granting that he probably will, but…

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What bemuses me, is that the same amigos who went “ehhhhhh” at Dunn’s 40 bombs and 7.5 RC and MASSIVE lefty power in Safeco … are now very excited about a much more pedestrian addition.

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Swisher could improve the club. He’d be better than standing pat.

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Q.  But what a bargain!

the kind of thing you love to have at 5 mi/year. He’s signed through 2012! You can’t beat that with a stick.

A.  Now, that I didn’t know …. wow, Swisher for 4 years, $20m? … I’d forgotten that Beane locked him up, and had assumed Swisher was FA in a year or two…

Waitaminnit. He’s getting $5.3, $6.75, $9, $10.25 the next four years, according to Cot’s. That’s almost $8m a year, not $5m.

Still, he’s got a contract below market, which explains it. Chance to save a buck. Swisher will probably give you a $10-14m performance, for about $8m.

It would be a Raul Ibanez type value: fairly solid, non-championship corner player at somewhat below market. (Per HBT, Raul was worth $44m against the $27m the M’s paid him, though for some reason cyber-Seattle never enthused about that.)

………….

Hey, I’m all for spending your roto dollars wisely. Object of the game isn’t to play .500 ball for less than owner budget, though. You need to pick your 3-4-5 hitters with a view to competing with the Boston Red Sox and LA Angels.

I’m not saying that you couldn’t fit Swisher into a strong ballclub around him. You could. But preferring him to Dunn isn’t the way I’m going. :- )

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Q.  You don't care about cost savings?  You can win that way.

A. If you're all about Sabermetrics-as-Dollars-Saved, then deal with this:  Swisher saves you a projected $5M per year vs average FA performance cost -- for four years.  But how much money would you save vs average FA performance cost by putting a non-arb player in LF for the same time period?

And how much money could you save with the prospects you deal to New York?  You can't forget them.

It's not like Swisher saves you $20MM vs all other scenarios.  He saves you $20M vs what Raul Ibanez will be getting.  He won't save you $20M vs a minimum-wage player's performance.

Endy Chavez projects to save you $6M a year in fulltime play, vs. his low salary. Is cost savings all there is to it?

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That's the essence of Stars & Scrubs:  one legit Teixeira, plus a Branyan or Wlad or Triunfel or whoever, as opposed to Swisher and another Civic.  Even if your Civics are signed below contract, I've got a non-arb player who's TEN million below contract.

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Nor would I prefer Swish to Dunn…and if I were in charge, this would be a market I’d be BUYING into…not a market I’d be selling 20% of my payroll into. I’d have already bought Parker Brothers though. LOL

Look…I’d much rather have Dunn…but the Mariners have said they needed to gut the team just to break even (which is bull, but you knew they were waiting for an excuse to cheap out on the payroll). Dunn just ain’t gonna happen.

You’re right about Swisher’s contract though…I read the 2009 salary and thought he was on a fixed plan…my bad. Still, he’s way below market and as his dollars escalate a lot of bad contracts come off the Mairners’ books…he’s got the salary structure the Mariners need.

As for SX…Oakland messes up hitters when it comes to GIDP too (clogged bases = DPs), and when you don’t attempt many steals, you’re more likely to have weird CS%. And I’d be willing to bet the rare CS for Swisher were caused by hit-and-run Ks more than his speed or supposed lack thereof.

He’s not fast…but he’s not as slow as Edgar…sheesh.

No, didn't mean to say that he's as slow as Edgar.  I just don't care for BB when (a) it's the main thing you do, and (b) you're not that great at going from 1B to home plate.

Swisher can run some.  I don't mean to overstate my disregard for his speed.  He runs about average.

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There's a case to be made for Swisher.  And if the alternative is standing pat, I'd like to see whether he could loft 32 balls over that RF fence.  :- )

Cheers,

Dr D