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Fister throws 8 innings of gemly goodness as if to stick it in Sandy's eye. :)
Doogie's 7:1 Ratio in the PCL
A surprisingly vigorous pepper game has broken out over SSI's read of Fister's background... You're not supposed to take 3/4 swings in a friendly pepper game, kiddies :- )
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I agree 100% that when a minor-league pitcher brings his BB's to 0+, for sure the question is whether he's over-challenging. It's totally possible that a pitcher could run 0+ BB's just by throwing everything for a strike. Especially this is the case with ML'ers who have lost their place in the majors and gotten demoted...
And it's not a theoretical question. This could easily be the case with Fister specifically. Like we say, we peg Fister's chances to succeed in the majors at around 40%. If 7:1 was the only thing that mattered, his chances would be 100% :- )
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Just the same, it's not every minor-leaguer who can venture into 0+ BB land and live to tell the tale. Those who do, and still induce high K's, are going to be on my radar. That's all we're saying.
Show me a 7:1 PCL pitcher and I'm going to take a long look. He is coming into the strike zone every single pitch, and for some reason, he is still getting a ton of strikes. There's something he is doing, such that he is able to say "here it is, hit it," and the batters are having more problems with that than with other fringe-ML AAA pitchers.
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The confidence in Doogie at the ML level for me is based on the changeup that I have witnessed and the mechanics / command that I have witnessed.
His 7:1 record the year before is interesting as spliced against that template. In this case, the two ideas intersect: Doogie has quite obviously thrown quality fastball strikes on the corners, and put hitters away with a terrific changeup. PCL hitters - fringe ML hitters - could not deal with Doogie's located fastball and plus-plus change. That is what it is. It doesn't guarantee that Kendry Morales won't be able to deal with his game.
7:1 in and of itself is a leading indicator, not a guarantee.
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As to Fister himself, we get another look tonight. Odds 2:3 against Fister finding his level as a 100-110 ERA+ American League starter. Right now there is no argument, on paper, that is going to swing sympathy towards Fister, because amigos just are not enjoying his performances. Only one thing will swing the argument: quality Fister performances. We'll see.
But SSI once again gets to play its perpetual 2010 trump card: the Seattle Mariners, Jack Zduriencik, and Don Wakamatsu see the same things in Doug Fister that SSI does. ;- ) I could be wrong, but I've got good company. The '010 Mariners are scoring their 2-6 records the SSI way.
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Heh,
Dr D
Comments
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San-man will be only to glad to pay for eyedrops this time around, we're guessing :- )
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The only thing I have to say in response to a completely stellar performance is ...
Adam Moore is clearly and obviously in way over his head and needs to be shipped back to Tacoma immediately!
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For those of us who don't get to see much live game action: http://seattle.mariners.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=7432197
BTW, I wasn't bring up Baldwin to pile on, but to give both of you a chance to analyze why Fister is getting a shot and Baldwin keeps repeating AAA, when the numbers look similar on the surface. Your comment that it is the changeup and the command on Fister's side probably answers that.
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Care to expand, San-Man? You're talking about the game call or the hitting or both?
Don't think anybody expected Rob Johnson to be able to catch on ANY two consecutive days before the ASB, and maybe not after. This is great.
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Yeah, no, that's a good put.
For one thing, Baldwin could be a good pitcher :- ) but assuming he's not, his AAA CTL #'s have been nothing to write home about...
That said, I *would* like to know what happened in the South'n League... where are G and J when you need them?
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There isn't a lot of risk calling the shot on that one any more.
My main hesitation was the fear that he'd sit at 86 mph. In THAT scenario we had his chances at 40%.
88 located, 90-91 humped up... with his offspeed and command he's a much better than 50-50 bet.
Thanks for the highlight reel Spec -
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Honestly, I do kind of get the feeling that Moore is currently a bit overwhelmed in the majors -- mentally. Johnson deservedly earned a rep for calling great games during '09. So, in addition to the pressure of hitting MLB pitching, (and a significantly higher 'prospect expectation quotient'), Moore has a bunch of defensive pressure on him, too.
If he were calling games for Lee and Bedard, it wouldn't be so bad -- but calling games for Brillo Pads isn't exactly an easy way to enter the league - especially when there has been all kinds of hype about how improved the team is. I think the defensive concerns are eating into his offensive performance. I think he's trying 'not to fail', rather than trying to succeed at the moment. I think Bard would be a better fit -- at least in the short run.
And, of course - if these guys are going to make me look like an idiot every time I pan them, I figure it's my duty to be willing to take one for the team. :)
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Fister was 90+ several times even in his "bad" start...which didn't look that bad to me. He was getting jobbed by the HP ump and looked a little frustrated with Adam Moore...Moore had to run out to the mound to discuss the next pitch like 5 times.
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that Fister didn't "check off" Johnson even a single time Tuesday -
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In a civilized, generally cordial way, but still fighting...over all of the big pitches.
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Not sure what you're askin - what happened to Andrew Baldwin in AA? Nothing. He threw like that in A+ the previous year too. His highest BB/9 is 2.5 at any level. He doesn't give up a lot of HRs, just a lot of hits. Sometimes guys who give up lots of hits but have good control are helped in the bigs by having professional defenders behind them. The errors I've seen committed in the minors are staggeringly bad at times.
But nothing changed between AA and AAA except that his walks went back to "normal." He's still running a 2.5:1 ratio. I'm with Sandy on the 7:1 sorts of ratios for non-power pitchers as starters - it's not sustainable. It's a good indicator of control in general, but not predictive of future control ratios. You wouldn't expect a 5:1 or 6:1 guy to sudden go to 1.5 to one, but regressing to a still-good 2.5:1 isn't a crime.
Randy Johnson would run 3:1, 4:1, 5:1 ratios once he found his control, but that's because he was striking out 12 guys a a game. walking 2.5-3.5 guys is a perfectly reasonable expectation. Striking out 6 per 9 and walking .85 is not reasonable unless you used to pitch for the Braves.
Not on a consistent basis, not as a starter. As a reliever? Sure, bigger control ratios are possible. It's your specialty, and they don't see you for 3 ABs a start.
But being Brad Radke is hard, even for Brad Radke. His rate fluctuated from 2.5 to 4 K's per BB. You're not gonna get better than that for a soft-tosser unless your name is Greg Maddux, and they don't call strike zones like that any more.
Fister and Baldwin should stick to trying to be Brad Radke, and for that, 7:1 is never on the agenda long-term. Just take the stat as a measure of their control of the zone - as you should for Pineda - and understand that Fister will get forced to the edges of that zone in the Pros - which is why his off-speed stuff is critical for his longevity in the league.
He can't throw mid-90s and watch hitters miss when they know it's gonna be in the zone. Even Felix had trouble doing that.
~G