Jeff at Lookout Landing with a witty call for all of us to hyper down a bit.
He apparently shares an office with the kind of amigo who will assume the fetal position when you twang a rubber band at him :- ) ... not a bad metaphor for the Mariner blog-o-sphere (including me) when it hears a rumor of a move it doesn't care for.
LOL.
Will cheerfully admit there are times when Dr. D could give more of a shrug of the shoulders about moves that aren't going to make-or-break The Grand Plan. Aaron Heilman for Ronny Cedeno and Garret Olson is pretty much the opposite of what I'd do -- giving up the (by far) best player in the deal in return for cheap quantity -- but none of those three players, including Heilman, were going to be part of the M's next pennantwinner.
There are a few things that are baseball life-and-death, such as Hargrove's culture of Veteran Entitlement and the 102-loss comfort-zone atmosphere that ensued. (Having Charlton Jimerson start in LF would have actually been worse than Oklahoma City-style sports death, but that threat has been averted).
Anyway, yeah. Most of these moves aren't worth going all feline over. Whether the M's chose Swisher, Abreu, or Dunn, for example, there's no reason to wear Airsoft gear to the office to avoid the rubber band. :- ) Like Lonnie says, we've all got cabin fever.
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LL is also quick to notice that Garret Anderson is much un-preferable to Junior.
Actually, GA is *in reality* the kind of thoroughly depressing move that the Junior move is falsely accused of being.
If you haven't seen GA's stats lately, stop reading right now and go take a look at his OPS+ trend. Anderson had exactly two (2) years in which he was anything other than mediocre: 2002 and 2003. Oh, hey! Weren't those the years right before the roids crackdown of 2004?
He's a CAREER 105 OPS+ hitter WITH the two roid years -- and GA is a corner outfielder!
So, yeah, that makes sense. GA was good at 30 and 31, predictably went over the hill at 32 with the roids crackdown ... and now he's 37. Let's go get that guy and put him in front of Wlad Balentien.
What's with Dave Edler's confusion about who selects the players? Which of the co-GM's was the guy who was here back in 2002 and 2003 when GA was beating us? :- )
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Far be it from me to duck-and-cover at the sight of a ping-pong ball gun, but what state-of-mind would cause you to consider signing Garret Anderson?
Granted, Boras wants to create the perception of interest in GA. And granted that Royal Brougham USUALLY wants its FA targets guessing. But in this case, what is the benefit to signalling to Abreu and Griffey that you have options? They're already accepting pay cuts in excess of 50%.
The GA signals are there because Chuck Armstrong, or somebody, is thinking that Anderson gives you a cheap MLB(TM) hitter. Like we have noted, the Mariners' suits are far too strikeout-averse. They still won't forgive Wlad for his K's in his first go-round. :- )
Strikeouts are no worse than infield popups or three-bouncers, guys. Wlad's going to hit 30+ homers one day soon. How many Choos and Guillens and Cabreras do you want out there over the next coupla years.
Cheers,
Dr D
Right on Doc!
If we aren't going the nostalgic route and giving Junior his victory lap, I say let the kids play. Lets see what we definitively have before we ship it off for the next budding 2010 ESPN analyst. Honestly, how good would Choo look right now in LF.. or Cabrera at SS?
If no Junior, lets give our home grown guys a chance to make their mark.
For me, the question of Abreu, Griffey, GA is a big shrug. You can spend a lot of money to accomplish nothing, or a little money to accomplish nothing.
Depending on the phase of the moon, I either snicker or cringe at these discussions. And I think I've finally figured out why. It isn't my newfound interest in focusing on team psychology. It isn't my curiosity of watching plan "Z" from outer space unfold, so I can figure out what the new GM is REALLY up to, (rather than what he says he's up to). No, my mirth (or ire), is because of one thing -- the "savior" syndrome.
Think about it. After 2007 -- after 88 wins -- after the offense was just a bit above average, and the pitching was solid except for two HUGE holes -- after that, most of the blog-o-sphere caught SS. The belief (by many, but not all), was that if the Ms could just fix the mess in the 4/5 slots of the rotation, the team could compete in 2008. Bedard and Silva were the fixes, (and didn't make everyone happy) - but they WERE that attempt to go out and add those 7 extra wins.
Well, we saw the result of that -- 101 losses, a team backsliding into the Pit of Dispair.
I like what "Z" has done so far. I am optimistic that the team may be headed in the right direction for 2009. But, c'mon, does anyone REALLY think the current roster is actually poised for the playoffs if it gets "just one more" piece?!?
If you replaced Yubet with AROD - and all the other spots stayed the same - are the Ms winning the division?!? I don't think so. Not for one minute. It ain't about production. It ain't about projections. It's about a 40-game gap between the Ms and first place in 2008. There's three teams in the division that were better than the Ms last season - and there remain 3 teams that are "probably" better than them today.
You could put the 2004 version of Barry Bonds in LF for the Ms, and they STILL wouldn't make the playoffs. (The 2004 Giants didn't make the playoffs, either - and they had a much better team across the board.) Abreu is NOT going to post a 1400 OPS, either.
Me? If *I* am GM, and want to bring in one more bat for DH/1B/OF depth? I probably look into getting Kevin Millar. No, he's not a production machine. But, he'd bring a personality to the team that might offset all the gloom and doom of the recent past.
I'm still of the opinion that it's silly to pay large money to get the declining years for a player - and just about everyone mentioned, (except maybe Dunn), falls into that category.
But, perhaps the item in all of this that makes me pause is -- why is NOBODY mentioning Prentice Redmon? He's 28, and has never gotten a shot in the majors. Fine. But, he hit .959 in Tacoma, with 19-HR in 319 ABs, and only fanned 45 while walking 37. Okay - he didn't make the bigs at 22 - so he's not going to the Hall of Fame. Who cares? But, he hit pretty much just as well as Wlad did in AAA last season. He's 28 - NOT 38 -- and he's gotta know his time is all but up for making the majors.
Personally, I think the team has a bunch of guys with the potential to post .780 - .800 OPS figures in the OF, if things break right for them -- Wlad, Morse, Redmon.
Why is everyone so desperate to run and pay lots of money for a declining .830 OPS, instead of paying nothing at all to get MULTIPLE shots at a climbing .750?
What is the value of a somewhat "proven" prospect? A prospect that has climbed the minor league levels and now is waiting for their shot. Sandy mentioned three above (Wlad, Morse, Redmon). What if we were to "trade" with a team like the Astros? They need a SP, but don't have any money to spend. Could we trade Washburn for one or two prospects?
We would eat Washburn's salary. In the current market, his value is about 5 million. We would eat the 10 million, but only get 5 million back in value.
If M's aren't willinging to give Wlad a good look I think it would be confirmation that management doesn't have a long term plan. Their is alot of value for Wlad. He saves you money and if he turns out to a mlb ready hitter sooner rather then later then he's invaluble trade bait or a lock for long term(5-6 years).
I don't think a choice to bypass Wlad is a definitive statement of anything.
The problem with evaluating ANY prospect is that it is a balance between paying attention to production and paying attention to what the coaches and scouts are seeing.
It is reasonable to assume that every trained eye in the Ms organization has poured over every bit of data, (and video), that Wlad produced during 2008. Let's say, for the sake of argument, that your top three scouts come forward, and all three say -- "the kid simply isn't EVER going to get it. Kids don't improve because they get older - they improve because they learn something -- and we've reached the conclusion that THIS kid is incapable of learning anything more from us. We don't believe it's going to make any difference if we give him 500 more ABs in the majors or 5000. He's a AAAA player, and we see no remaining potential to tap."
If you're the GM - what is your response to this report?
Do you:
A) Tell your scouts they are idiots who need to learn sabremetrics, because your charts tell you he SHOULD produce "X" in the majors during the next two years.
B) DFA Wlad -- and go and sign the first FA you can get for real cheap - (someone like Wilkerson perhaps).
C) Keep Wlad (while seeing if anyone else has interest in him), get a cheap veteran as a plug-in for the position, in case the scouts are right and continue looking for something better -- and let Wlad know that he's not going to just be handed the job in 2009, he's going to have to get it the old-fashioned way - he'll have to Eaaaarn it.
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You're trying to build the best team possible -- but you're also trying to get the most out of every player on your roster, too. Did handing Johjima $24 million in response to him stinking the place up solve HIS problems overnight? I don't think so. So, maybe, just maybe, since he played so poorly with no pressure on him during 2008, you do what you can to put pressure on him for 2009, and see what happens.
My own view is that I haven't seen anything the Ms have done to date that indicates they are not willing to give Wlad another look. In point of fact, it seems more like they are planning to give EVERYONE a look, and nobody should be expecting to waltz into their pre-determined positions. But, I think it would be a much LARGER mistake to paint a picture for Wlad that he's going to be getting 500+ ABs in 2009 just because he's currently the top OF spec in the org.