Not all sporting events involve Pascal's Triangle as strongly as Balls In Play (BIP's) involve it.  If you can think of a sporting event that involves Pascal's Triangle more strongly than do BIP's, let me know.  That's not a challenge.  I'd like to hear some suggestions.

Very nice to check in to a new San-Man byline... would that we could have one every morning...

Very interesting and constructive article, in which Dr. D will of course zero in on the elements on which he differs :- )

Bear in mind, please, that this article isn't a direct response to Sandy's, which still holds good.  It's a reaction to a particular facet of sports, that Sandy pointed out, that caught our imagination this afternoon...

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Emphasized in the article is the idea that those with alternative positions are making (presumably thoughtless) 'assumptions':

BIPA is recognized and accepted as a volatile hitting stat, where the major year-to-year variations are ASSUMED to be luck.

DER/UZR each specifically attempt to quantify the specific arena of balls-in-play.  The assumption when measuring these is that the results here are SKILL.

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The word 'assumption' is a debatable term in this context.  Those who play the game will tell you that a two-hopper at you at SS involves a lot more player control than he has over whether a batted ground ball goes between fielders (essentially none).  :- )   Completing a throw to 1B to hold a runner involves even less luck.

Playing soccer, a shot at the net from 18 yards, running at full speed, with a defender on you against a good goalie, has a lot of luck involved (as to whether the ball goes inside or outside the goalpost).  Completing a pass to a teammate in the midfield is an activity that involves much less luck.  Making sure you don't get stripped of the ball by a man on has even less luck involved.

Here is a list of athletic tasks that I, ahem, 'assume' involve a LOT of luck:

• Hitting a baseball through 8 defenders to land in the outfield
• Running a football through 11 defensive players to get 4 yards and a first down
• Blitzing a quarterback and getting through to him in time (offensive play call heavily weighs for or against you)
• Landing an approach shot on the green in a place that it will purchase, vs. roll downhill
• Stopping a penalty kick in soccer
• Winding up with a chess opening that is in your favor
  

Here are some fundamental tasks that I, ahem, 'assume' involve SOME, but MUCH LESS luck:

• Making a free throw in basketball
• Catching a knee-high throw from the shortstop
• Getting to a fly ball in the gap before it lands
• Catching a football vs. dropping it
  
• Playing a rook-and-pawn ending

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Part 2