If I had my way, Matt Tuiasosopo would play 3B in 2010 and the dollars would go to Lackey and offense.
Moving on: suppose the Mariners do reel in Marco Scutaro, and Tui becomes a super-sub 4th infielder, getting 250 AB's and consolidating his talent for a year or two? What then?
Fangraphs -- actually, Dave Allen -- has a couple of outstanding articles up, demonstrating the insightful projection on Marco Scutaro is for him to hit better, rather than worse.
You'll have to open two more tabs in your browser: Allen's July article on Luis Castillo, and his November article on Marco Scutaro.
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=== Bat Glued To Your Shoulder Dept. ===
In the July article, Allen noticed that Castillo swung at MANY fewer pitches than other hitters do. If you're skimming quickly, here are what Allen's first 3 side-by-side charts mean in that article:
0 STRIKES -- Castillo basically never swings. If the ball is exactly centered and waist-high, he'll swing 25% of the time.
1 STRIKE -- Castillo will "probably" swing (>50%) only if the pitch meets two conditions: (1) it bisects the plate, and (2) is thigh-high or higher.
2 STRIKES -- Castillo swings as often as other hitters do.
.................
Castillo gets away with this, uniquely, because he can EASILY AND RELIABLY put the ball in play on a 1-2 count. Other hitters swing on 1-1 because they know if they get to 2-2, they might well strike out.
Castillo doesn't strike out -- he fungoes it into play easily -- and so he relaxes into deep counts.
..................
Allen concludes that,
I think most people view Castillo as a pretty boring player, but he is able to provide above average offensive value with no power and a diminishing ability to beat out grounders (his value used to come from an above average BABIP). I think that is cool, he can take extreme plate discipline, and little else, and make it work.
In other words, if you're good enough just at taking walks and doing nothing else, you'll be fine. (Castillo wound up with a 98 OPS+ as a middle infielder.)
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=== Scooter Dept. ===
Now, consider Allen's discoveries on Marco Scutaro, whose offensive game is similar to Castillo's, but superior (Scutaro hits more fly balls and has more power).
0 STRIKES -- Scutaro will not "probably" swing at anything, including a tubed 86 mph fastball. When he does occasionally swing -- even on 2-0 -- the ball's inside.
1 STRIKE -- Scutaro will "probably" swing only if the ball is middle-in, where he likes it and where he can perform well on it.
2 STRIKES -- Scutaro swings like other hitters do, except Scutaro doesn't fish for sucker pitches.
............
Now consider the 2nd row of graphics in the article. Inside the blue area, assuming Scutaro lets the bat fly, he is 90% likely to put the ball into play.
Scutaro's 90% contact areas are literally twice the size of other ML hitters'.
.............
Again you've got the extreme plate discipline, backed by the comfortable assurance that Scutaro won't strike out in a deep count.
Scutaro treats 0-1 counts like 2-0 counts: he looks for a fastball in a certain spot (inside) and if he gets it, he tries to punish it. Otherwise, he refuses to roll over a low-away slider.
So this isn't a hot streak. This is a skill. Scutaro can literally hit major league pitches at will. He exploits this fact to let pitchers walk him a lot. If they don't walk him, he bangs the ball out into the 7 fielders to see what happens.
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=== Dr's Prognosis ===
Scutaro's offensive game is, demonstrably, a lot more solid than we thought. Two years ago, he was given a full time job, and as soon as he got it, he started waging a war of attrition with the pitchers.
Castillo's OBP last year was .387; Scutaro's was .379. He's looking at .360-.370 again this year, with an RC/27 around 5.0 to 5.5.
I'd rather have Lackey and Tui than Scutaro and Harden, but Scutaro's liable to make somebody a pretty good shortstop.
Cheers,
Dr D
I would argue, then, that Scutaro actually has TWO ++ skills if these graphics are accurate.
1) Patience
2) CONTACT
He makes contact like Ichiro (well...almost) and walks like (say) Branyan. He has little power, but a combination of ++ contact hitting skill and a patient approach to hitting is not a skill that will age poorly.
is why pitchers don't pour strikes in there to start off. You'd think you'd have to counter his strategy by jumping ahead in the count.
But Allen pointed out that the difference between the most first-pitch strikes seen, and the fewest, is a relative few percentage points.
Perhaps the pitchers aren't capable of throwing automatic strikes.
...that Maddux was able to throw the ball into a teacup 8 inches wide...and that was about as good as command got. :) It's surprisingly difficult to get the ball to go right where you want it every blinkin' time. Most pitchers have a big circle about 14 inches across that they can throw to...no matter how hard you try to throw a first pitch strike every time you face Scutaro, most guys can't...not more often than average anyway.
Worth noting, Scutaro's first pitch S% is 60.4% for his career (he did get lucky in 2009 to the tune of 57% first pitch strikes, which is the only year that happened for him and helps to explain the increase in BB rate). League average S1% is 54.8 in 2009 and that's been relatively constant over time, which means they ARE throwing him more strike ones than normal...about as many more as they can.
Ya, I do think much of Scutaro's offensive gain is legitimate (similar to the development of Mark McLemore late in his career) which is why I liked him a SS target before we locked up J.Wilson.
I don't get him as a 3b target though..
I don't get him as a 3B target either, as he is no BIG bat. But if Tui doesn't deliver, Hall and Hannahan are black holes with a bat, regardless of their good gloves. At least Scutaro has a decent MI bat out of position at 3B, and for now Lopez has 3B power if not any OBP/plate discipline at 2B.
...if the Mariners signed him, their advertising campaign would be filled with "Scut'n'Gut!"
The commercials write themselves, people. Am I the only one worried about this? :)
Scutaro was offered arb, and is Type A, so draft pick attaches. On the other hand ...
Miguel Tejada is only 1-1/2 years older than Scutaro, and presumably could play 3b or 2b (though I guess I don't know that for certain), and even though post-steriods he dropped from .500 SLG to .450, that's still way more than Scutaro's ever shown.
Tejada is coming off a year with 199 hits and 46 doubles, but I have a sense he'd be relatively cheap. I'm thinking 3b mix with Tui, SS insurance for Wilson, DH. Of course, he shares the walk-averse, hard-to-strike-out profile with Lopez, and maybe we've had enough of that.
Just curious.
... how Tejada compares to Scutaro ... or to Hannahan for that matter, since we're talking about 3b alternatives.