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OKDan sez,

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Was down in Peoria most of last week, and let me tell ya, the dog days of spring training are for real. You could tell all of the guys who knew they were on the team (i.e. 99% of them) were just ready to move on. Stay healthy and move on. I was having trouble dealing with the heat, while sitting in the stands with a cold one. I can't imaging the toll it takes out on the field day-in-day-out. So I chalk Felix's struggles up to that.

For Paxton, it's interesting. I was at his second game and you're right, he couldn't find the strike zone at all. Yesterday was weird, he was going 0-2, 1-2 on almost everyone. And in a very Noesi-ish way, just couldn't finish them off and they would rifle a hit to the wall. I suppose the increased command is encouraging considering it was only his 3rd start of the spring.

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Right, ok, thanks for the clarification.  

Usually if a guy like K-Pax or Clayton Kershaw or Sidd Fynch is giving up rockets with two strikes, it's because he's --- > throwing the ball onto the bat, as it were.  The batter's defensive but of course he is swinging, and there is such a thing as "supplying the power."

Let's take a quick look at Paxton's first inning via GameDay:

BATTER ONE -- Walk.  None of the six pitches were in the strike zone.  Okay, Paxton is way out of synch.

BATTER TWO -- Strikeout, three pitches, two lousy fastballs sandwiched around a good curve.

BATTER THREE, JIMMIE FOXX -- Double.  He threw 2-2 curve ball to Abreu, hung it high, lousy break, no snap, Foxx took it off the RF wall.

We once asked a minor league hitter what such a pitch looks like.  He said the announcers aren't exaggerating.  It looks like it stops in midair, hanging on a string, and you just whack it.  Of course, Abreu has whacked lots better pitches than THAT one.

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Already Paxton's playing rope-a-dope, based on maybe 4 good pitches and 10 bad ones.

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BATTER FOUR -- 1B.  Here we're good.  Paxton quadruples up on curve balls, 4 hooks out of 5 pitches.  Garcia reaches out and pokes the last one for a bloop single.  No complaints here.  That's BABIP for you.

Granted, you show a guy your curve three times in 60 seconds, the fourth one has lost a wee bit of shock factor.  But that's okay.  Paxton is working on things.

BATTER FIVE -- POPUP.  Three pitches, two of them authentically terrible.  Got the out anyway.

BATTER SIX - LINE DRIVE RBI SINGLE.  On a 1-1 count, Paxton tries his (worthless) changeup and gets it smoked into CF.   He's got two great pitches and one Blake Beavan pitch.  The Beavan pitch got wasted.

BATTER SEVEN - STRIKEOUT.  Five wild fastballs, wild taken as a group - two were in the dirt.  He gets the K anyway.

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Also, the fastballs are 92, not 96.  Like OKDan sez, some dog days here.  It's a wonder that Paxton ever got out of that inning.

Dr. D thinks all y'all can take it from there; it's early Spring Training performance vs late Spring Training hitters.  But let's have a quick look at the next inning ...

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BATTER ONE - 1B.  Line drive off a 2-2, 93 fastball that Paxton threw onto Farrell's bat, thusly:

BATTER TWO - Soft Single.  Here we give the hitter credit:  Three high FB's for strikes, followed by a good curve down to the knees.  He hit that one anyway.  Congrats.

BATTER THREE - Fly Out.  Five fastballs, 3-1 count, last one up.  Out, anyway.

BATTER FOUR - 2B.  Melky is defensive in spite of the situation (the situation being that Paxton can't execute a James Paxton pitch more than one time in five).  He gets a 92 fastball thrown onto his bat and takes it the other way (?!) for a hit.  Take MELKY to restore certain natural substances to the scoreboard.  MELKY is not habit-forming.

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Examples could be multiplied.  Suffice it to say that it was lousy pitching.  The downward-angle fastballs, the good velocity, the pitch sequencing, the K-Pax'ing, wasn't.

He's gotta "pitch himself in."  If I were him and 'porters got in my grill?  I'd growl, "Don't count me out based on spring training shtick."

But that's just me,

Dr D