=== Hope Makes a Good Breakfast, But A Poor Supper Dept. ===

Dr. D's glass is half full, and he's not pouring it over the blog-o-sphere's head.  :- )  We're pleased to see that this winter, most sites seem less willing to give up on the M's in 2009, coming off 101 losses, than they were in 2008.

My glass would be half empty if this were Pittsburgh or KC.  It ain't.  It's a city with a verrrrrrrrrry rich baseball team in residence.

There aren’t enough impact free agent bats that would even consider coming to Seattle to fix this woefully bad offense. That’s the bottom line.

Bottom line?  On a Dr. D blog?  That's about 24 column inches on, amigo…

Could be that my 'can-do' attitude gets me hosed sometimes, in roto baseball, in raising teenagers and in building weblog subscriber bases.  That's kewl.  We don't want to see Lofa leave anything out there on the field.  Why should we :- )

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=== Gumption, Dept. ===

Is a $100M - $120M payroll enough to contend in one offseason following 100 losses?   Is 2009 a writeoff?  Whether you're talking spec houses, teenagers out past their curfews, or Wlad Balentien hitting .201:  Real Bidnessmen Don't Lay Down And Die.

Nothing easier than for us, with zero at stake, to throw our hands in the air and give up.  In the real world, quitting is what you do when the enemy throws the last shovelful of dirt over your 85-degree corpse :- )

…………………..

I take a meat cleaver to the roster, which Lee Pelekoudas most decidedly did NOT do.

On my team, we're not quibbling over an extra prospect when we get a chance to powerflush the Jarrod Washburns of the ballclub.   In my view, Pelekoudas focused on whether his tactical trades would look savvy.  What he should have been focusing on, is positioning himself for his next six chess moves.  In keeping Jarrod Washburn (and others), he made strategic blunders of the very first magnitude.

Dr. D amputates every veteran appendage that he can reach, leaving him with:

1 Felix

2 Bedard

3 Morrow

4 Heilman* (if not closing)

5-6 … RRS, Feierabend, Silva*, Aumont, Dorman, whichever guys perform best, Stars & Scrubs style  (*I know, I know)

I'm not giving up on the idea of a 115 ERA+ pitching staff. Not that it's in place; but it's the goal.  Several analysts, Joe Sheehan and Jason's unnamed ML exec, and several others, have opined this winter that the M's could realistically have one of the best rotations in the majors.

Can somebody explain to me, in nice short words I can understand, why we can't set the goal of having Felix-Bedard-Morrow perform a Hudson-Zito-Mulder function for us?   In Ought Nine?

I know people are frustrated with 100 L's and with this administration.  Frustration isn't "analysis."  Analysis is that Felix and Bedard are two of the top six SP draft picks in the AL, and "analysis" is that Morrow's 98 MPH fastball and 10K whiff rates gives him a very realistic chance to do an 18-6 Justin Verlander dance.

This is a team with a chance at three #1 aces in 2009, and a team with three #1 aces is a team that needs to fight for the pennant.

The 2003 Oakland A's, for example, had an offensive OPS+ of 96 …. which, coincidentally, was how many games they won.  They had three great starters.

The point isn't that the Mariners are assured of being the 2003 Oakland A's.  The point is that they have no right to simply lie down and die, when they are starting their season with Felix, Bedard, and Morrow in the rotation.

Give me three great starters and I'll figure out the rest, champ.  Or die trying.  If this club had Glen Abbott on Opening Day, this would be a column about the Seahawks.  But the pitcher this club actually has on Opening Day is Felix.

Unless Felix is going on Day Two.  Or Day Three, the next year.

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=== But I'd Still Move the Fences In, Dept. ===

In terms of offense:  the M's team OPS+ is — right now — 91.  Now let's not even talk about improving from 91.  Let's just talk about whether 91, itself, leaves you hosed.

The '03 A's OPS was 96.   They won 96 and the division.

Guess what the Anaheim Angels' team OPS+ is right now?  Take a look.  That is with Teixeira now going bananas for them.

Are you sure that's your position? That until a team can guarantee an OPS+ of 105 or better, that it should quit on a season in March?  :- )

…………………

But now, okay, fine.  The M's OPS+ is 91 now, and was 104 in 2007.

Are you saying that you can't improve the offense from here at all? That you refuse to even try?

I'm guessing that the 2009 manager will find a way to improve these numbers, whether he wants to or not:

55 - Johjima (103 and 101 the years previous)

79 - Clement (R)

85 - Lahair (R)

102 - Lopez

75 - YuBet (85 and 93 the years previous)

100 - Beltre (105 and 112 the years previous)

65 - Wlad (R)

88 - Reed

134 - Rauuul; 65 - Vidro (wash w/r/t to '08-'09 delta)

Forget adding free agents.  Simply getting improvements from Clement and Wlad jack the OPS+ up to near 100.

.................

Zduriencik has the resources to aim for a 100-115 pitching staff and to aim for a 100 offense -- if he can get the club believing in itself.

Can a 110-115 pitching staff and 95-100 offense win?  Ask the Angels.

Cheers,

Dr D

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image:  http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/ABPub/2008/05/29/2004446946.jpg