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Doc,
I went to great LENGTHS in explaining my position on Carp. Dunno if this link is allowed, but figured I'd try it.
http://www.marinercentral.com/forum/index.php?s=&showtopic=1802&view=fin...
Our New Yoda ?
Geoffy continues to goggle-eye over Mike Carp:
Mike Carp (shaking Wakamatsu's hand in the photo atop the blog post) went deep for a three-run homer in the eighth, putting Seattle ahead 18-0. That Carp kid looks good. He had a homer, a double and five RBI with a run scored and is now hitting .500 for the spring ... I would not be surprised to see Carp up at some point this summer. The guy can flat-out hit. And with Branyan and Griffey possibly not coming back here in 2010, a spot would open up for a lefty 1B/DH who can rake.
Personally, I'm very interested to hear Geoff Baker's judgment on which young players look good. For one thing, Baker's been around MLB baseball 24/7 for quite a few years now -- he's had a lot closer look at it than you or I have. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if the Mariners, were they so inclined, could put Baker to work as a scout right now (though they'd be working with him as he came fully up to speed).
For another, more controversial thing ... as we've mentioned before, when you have a sportswriter who was himself an accomplished athlete, he just has a "feel" for competition. D-O-V has argued many times that there is such a thing as a human subconscious and human intuition, no matter what T'Pau teaches us in our Kohlinar classes and no matter how badly saberdudes want to redirect to something with finite boundaries. :- )
A guy who has competed, that guy has had a lot of tiny little unnoticeables programmed into his mind. That's the kind of thing that a baseball scout is trying to explain when he says he "watches how a kid walks when he gets off the bus," as one did in a Baseball America issue a few weeks ago.
I suppose that when Baker likes what he sees, he is talking about the angle of attack that Carp takes into unfamiliar ground, his poise, his swing, stuff like that .... Baker's intuition (I suppose) is telling him that hey, here's a kid who one day will be the bully, rather than the customer...
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Be that as it may, I'm glad that Mike Carp gets high marks early. Here are three of our earlier SSI articles on him, for your Saturday-mornin' viewing pleasuah:
http://seattlesportsinsider.com/2008/12/20/potd-mike-carp-the-good/
http://seattlesportsinsider.com/2008/12/20/potd-mike-carp-the-bad-and-the-ugly/
http://seattlesportsinsider.com/2008/12/21/tale-of-the-tape-mike-carp-vs-mike-saunders/
Not that I was ruling out Carp's future impact, but let's face it, it's not like the guy was an org-#1 prospect or anything like that. It's not as though D-O-V was lukewarm about a top-100 hitter. Carp isn't on the blue-chip radar for ANYbody, except maybe Capt. Jack's.
If you compare Carp to almost any current ML star at 1B, you'll find that he's well behind, in terms of either raw power, or early performance, or somesuch. He just doesn't scream "talent" the way that Delgado, or Howard, or Tex, or any of those guys did. (And of course that's not a fair comparison anyway.)
Supposing Carp does manufacture himself into Lyle Overbay: so what. Who needs Lyle Overbay? Think about it. Supposing Carp did hit for a 110 or 115 OPS+ at first base? I thought you'd already decided you want 175-lb fast players on defense everywhere except first base? Where does your hitting come from?
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But on the other hand, "career arcs" are ONLY A STARTING POINT for .... um, GUESSING ... what a ballplayer is going to do in the future.
Maybe Mike Carp, with his control of the strike zone and his championship makeup, is going to just learn and learn and learn, like Edgar Martinez did, and one of these days post a .395 OBP with 28 homers.
After Baker's report, I'm two notches more interested in watching for that, than I was. :- )
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At Mariner Central, we compared Carp against Tino Martinez and Paul O'Neill, two lefty hitters who had some things in common with Carp:
1. LH
2. Good strike zone control
3. Plus but NOT PLUS-PLUS power
4. Bulldog attitude
5. Had no "calling card" skill and had no overwhelming talent
Tino and O'Neill obviously made big impacts in the majors; in fact they were key parts of big Yankee teams, drawing walks and hitting lefty HR's into the short porch there. I have an inkling for Carp doing a Tino/O'Neill bit for the Mariners, if everything breaks right for him.
Am not saying I expect Carp to become an All-Star. Am saying that if Capt. Jack turned out to be right about him, I could see his style of play being in the Tino / O'Neill mold.
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When I first saw that picture above, I did a double-take. Doesn't that look like the 20-year-old Chris Snelling to you?
Long Live Capt. Jack,
Dr D