Matty sez,

You seem to be quite down on this bullpen, Doc.

With Morrow in it…I don’t think the pen is that bad.

Morrow, Kelley (who will probably make the team), Lowe, and Jak are pretty solid for their roles, and I think Aardsma is at least marginally useful as a middle man. When Fields gets called up, that makes six good arms.

The Bakery just served up a smokin' article about the fact that you NEVER see a clubhouse transformation like the one the Mariners have installed -- and they've done it between games.  The Sept. 30, 2008* game and the April 1, 2009* game.   Reminds me of the surgery scene from RoboCop.  "Lose the arm, doc" ...

Ten days ago, people were talking about Corcoran, Aardsma, Lugo, and Lowe as the go-to guys, possibly with Miguel Batista closing.  You put those five guys into an ML bullpen and you're talking 1997.  :- )

It's not even so much that any particular ONE of those guys is a problemo (though all are capable of much more carnage than fans realize).  It's the cumulative effect:  You bring Corco into a 4-2 lead, and he gives up four hits, and here comes Aardsma and he throws 11 balls in the first 14 pitches, and Lowe has been struggling this week... the potential for a lost season looms huge.

......................

Fortunately, Corco, Aardsma, and Lowe have NOT had the good springs that would have cemented everybody's confidence in them.    Fortunately, they've all had ten innings' worth of results that have alerted the gallery to their issues.

Just as one example, Lowe has 4 walks and 3 strikeouts in 12 innings.  Others are intrigued by what he used to be.  Dr. D is saddened by what he used to be.  The old Mark Lowe would have had three strikeouts in 1.3 innings, not in 12.

Gregg Olson, who M's fans sometimes argue would have been a great return for Aaron Heilman even straight-up, in 11 innings has 10 walks, 9 strikeouts and 0 chances to help the ballclub.

Lugo had 1 strikeout in 7 innings.   Etc. etc.  These are guys who are doing their very best to cut through a 20-man lineup at their door, and they can't get a sniff.    They were never going to, but the fortunate thing is that they showed that  this March, while there was still time for perspectives to adjust.

.......................

Now the runaway, retro bike has stopped on a dime and given Capt. J.T. Kirk nine cents change, right at the edge of the Grand Canyon:

Chris Jakubauskas, who not only has ML talent but also has the ability and willingness to throw strike ones, has emerged.  Much to my shock and delight, he's also (apparently) moving ahead of the other guys in the pecking order.

That moves the bullpen from the status of "having 0 guys Dr. D trusts" to the status of "having 1 guy Dr. D trusts."  That's a pretty big difference, if my point-of-view matters, which it does ... to me.  :- )

.......................

Brandon Morrow doesn't know how good it would go in the rotation, but DOES KNOW that it will go GREAT in the 'pen, so the Mariners added a Jon Papelbon* to their bullpen this week.

Adding Jon Papelbon (or fill in the name you like better) to an incendiary relief crew -- that kind of matters.

......................

Shawn Kelley, yesterday's game notwithstanding, is evidently a fine talent.  In their "think-outside-the-box" mode, the Mariners have commendably treated him as a serious possibility for 2009.   He's young, raw, and he's not as consistent as he'll be later, but he very likely gives you a better chance to win than Aardsma does and certainly than Corcoran does.

This potentially adds yet a third arm with ML ability.  This would move my own count of such Mariner relievers from 0 to 3.

.......................

Josh Fields waits in the wings.  When he arrives, the Mariners are liable to fire the starting gun on 6 sweet years' worth of Fernando Rodney, if not even of Bryan Harvey.

.......................

I'm not down on this bullpen.  It's a different bullpen than the one we were talking about two weeks ago.  :- )

Dr. D is just hoping against hope that the M's have the guts to stick with the guys they know can pitch, and not go with the guys who have the reputations of being able to pitch.  That is by no means a given.  Capt. Jack's and Wok's decisions on the bullpen will be telling.

Cheers,

Dr D