"Though Pineda would be very effective in the majors right now, he's farrrrr from ready."
Yep - makes perfect sense - and is the perfect summation of my stand on Ackley, (from back at the end of May).
There IS a difference between being more talented than the players around you - as opposed to being ready to face the best players on the planet.
Ackley is moving steadily in the right direction. But, what happened in just moving from AA to AAA?
Well, in AA, he had a 111 patience rating - showing a phenomenal eye - (against competition deathly afraid of pitching to him). In AAA, he's had a 74 patience rating, and his eye went from 67/58 to 12/17. Small sample, of course - but the reality here is that while the guys in AAA aren't "that much" better than those in AA - the guys in AAA are more concerned with making the majors than making a mistake against ANOTHER fringe MLBer.
That said - Ackley's average and power are both up in AAA. The "nibbling" has stopped, so we're seeing different results. But Ackley is also continuing to develop as a hitter. It won't be too long before he's maintaining a .300 average and posting something like a .300/.390/.450 line. He's still showing a "defensive" attitude at the plate, (IMHO), but it's one that is slowly evaporating.
This is what development is about -- understanding that in the majors - there are scads of players who will find a weakness and utterly crush that weakness until you adjust. Ackley is better than most players - but he's still got some holes in his game. Pineda is a superb talent - who still has holes in his game. You're MUCH better off (both player and org) fixing those issues in the minors - where wins and losses aren't nearly as important - and there aren't 40 reporters in the locker room after the game asking you to relive the nightmare.
=== Dr's R/X ===
Though Pineda would be very effective in the bigs right now, he's farrrrr from ready. Does that make any sense?
His polish is that of a class-A pitcher, almost. But he's just so talented that, playing first-person shooter out there, he still blows 'em down.
..........
Earlier, I called for the M's to promote Pineda immediately. Now, we realize that he has lots and lots of work to do.
Here's the question. Would you let him do this work in the majors, or not? He's got to achieve the same timing on his FB and offspeed mechanics. Is that something that you do in the majors, even if your ERA is 3.25?
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=== Fastball ===
We've got a pitch chart in front of us here, and though we don't have the energy to type it in :- ) here are the 3rd-inning velocities with breaking pitches edited out:
- 94
- 97
- 96
- 95
- 97
- 95
- 95
- 97
- 96
- 95
Pineda is now rotating his front shoulder around a bit more than he did in March, showing the batter his numbers a little bit. Glad to see that. But it's still a very short delivery, quite deceptive.
Those are Schilling, Pedro velocities, and they're with a compact delivery, and they're at the end of his season, and this guy is a location pitcher.
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=== Slider ===
Pineda's first slider of the game was on his 9th pitch, to Rahl .... first pitch 101 mph, then 94, 95 ... here came the yakker, and Rahl bailed out.
You guys remember Erik Hanson, who stated that he aimed every curve at the batter's head? Pineda threw a bunch of those. Couple 96 fastballs, now here's a beanball ... whoops, it cracked back over the plate.
A true 70 slider, at least when he gets ahold of the laces right.
...............
Favorite AB of the game, Bailey to lead off the fourth:
- 83 mph hook, starts at his head, dives across, called strike one
- 82 mph hook, Bailey (though not fooled) flails helplessly, misses the ball by a mile: 0-2 count
- 97 mph Nolan Ryan fastball, just misses...
- STOP. VISUALIZE YOURSELF IN THE BATTER'S BOX, DECIDING WHAT TO DEFEND ON THE 1-2 PITCH
- 96 mph fastball, replayed on the screen, exact low-away corner, strike three
That's a presage of glorious Pineda ownage in years to come. That was an at-bat that even King Felix could not have thrown; it was Pedro Martinez if Pedro had owned an Erik Hanson / Bert Blyleven beanball curve.
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Comments
If we include in Smoak (not really still a rookie) and re-boot the rankings, then by next June we'll have four in roughly the top 25 or so guys on the cusp:
Smoak
Ackley
Pineda
2011 Rd 1 pick: Rendon/Cole/Gray/Purke etc. (it's a lock that we'll get one of them and all will plug right into the very top of the rankings just like Ackley did -- Rendon is Longoria/Zimmerman level and the pitchers are polished college arms with real-deal stuff)
Then add Adam Moore, who can arguably be considered top 100, and the hot-shot bullpen arms we've been discussing.
Quite obviously, blending the young talent into the major-league mix is THE most important task of this organization. They can't afford to mess it up.
Doc/Sandy -- I note that after the Brewers successfully integrated Braun, Fielder, Hart and the wave of young talent that made Z his rep, they've settled in as a .500 team. And without Sabathia's amazing run, they wouldn't have been too much better in 08.
Anything we can learn from that? Lack of payroll? Lack of pitching? How does this crop stack up against Milwaukee circa 2006? Did the Brewers successfully navigate Sandy's issues in terms of bringing the talented ones up at the right time?
Great question spec.
The simple, ugly truth is - it is HARD to move into the top 8 teams in baseball. Even if you do EVERYTHING perfectly, injury or other unforseen circumstance beyond your control, (some OTHER team having a miracle season), can derail the best laid plans.
In 2007, Milwauke had *TWO* "slave-year" players (Fielder and Braun) posting 150+ OPS+ figures. They managed to finish only 5th in the NL in runs scored. The only starter under 80 OPS+ was Estrada, the catcher - at 79. They had 4 starters win 11 or 12 games, a closer saving 44, and they STILL only managed to go 83-79 that year with a 101 OPS+ and 100 ERA+.
In 2008, they SERIOUSLY upgraded their bench, (Kapler - 119 - Branyan 140 - Durham 122), improved their bullpen a bit - added CC mid-season and won 90 to make the playoffs witha 99 OPS+ and 109 ERA+.
Their problem? The CC deal. They traded away talent to get him - KNOWING that they couldn't keep him. They also knew that Sheets would be gone in 2009. Given their financial situation, they made a choice to try and win while Sheets was still there and renting Sabathia was within budgetary walls. (CC was their version of Lee in Seattle for 2010).
So, what happened in 2009? A 104 OPS+ and an 84 ERA+. They had ONE starter in 2009 with an ERA under 5.00 (Gallardo). In 2010, their offense is putting up a 108 OPS+ while the pitching is down to 80 ERA+.
2007 - 14
2008 - 2
2009 - 10
2010 - 16
So, what is this list? That is the Milwaukee DER ranking in the NL the past 4 seasons. With Sheets and CC, they had pitchers who could pitch with a purpose AND they had a defense fully engaged to help them. Once they left, the regulars just concentrated on their hitting stats.
The "easy" explanation for Milwaukee's climb to mediocrity is to blame it all on money. The truth is more nuanced. For one year they were genuinely engaged defensively, (thanks in part to the tag-team aces) - and/or they were over-the-top lucky -- and after the stud pitchers left, the defense went south like a NY retiree.
IMO, team defense is FAR more about "tone" and "focus" of the organization than actual player talent. Oh, you NEED a defensive whiz kid to help set that tone - (like Ozzie for the Cards or Andruw for the Braves, (for awhile) -- but the team defense isn't great because the star is making ALL the plays. The team defense gets good because EVERYONE is putting max effort into defense, (regardless of their individual ability).
Why did Atlanta extend their winning ways so long - while other 'elite' teams seemed to need retooling more often? Because Atlanta was built from day one around pitching/defense, and NOBODY was allowed to slack off (for over a decade) defensively. Having the ace pitchers helps SELL that - as I believe it basically impossible to keep a defense engaged if tossing nothing but Jeff Weaver's and HoRam's out there. There's synergy.
Maybe Milwaukee's pitching isn't good enough to compete this year. But, they're actually 4th in the NL in strikeouts, (but 14th and 15th in HR and BB). They aren't good - but they would LOOK a lot better with even an average defense. Subtract 100 extra hits you can blame on the defense - and they might well be neck and neck with Cinci and the Cards.
Hitting, Pitching, Defense -- argue all you want on what you "need" to win. The answer is all three. The question - the one that prevents dynasties, (w/o paying twice the price of everyone else is paying) - is how do you add what you're missing WITHOUT surrendering what you've got. It ain't easy.
Personally, I think the 3-headed rotation - with a MANDATE for strong defense - is the optimal model for "extended" success. Then you work hard to get your offense to "average". Milwaukee's 108 OPS+ is better than the Cards' 102. But the Cards have had strong pitching and defense - then work to add in "affordable" parts around Pujols.
You actually only need one or two "stellar" bats - the rest can be mediocre. But, you CANNOT survive long w/o a strong pitching/defense tandem. Milwaukee built a solid offense on the cheap, through good drafting and trading. But, the balloon payments on the pitching made them jump at the "one chance" for post-season play. Well, if you are of the mind that you only have "one chance", you'll typically find out, you're correct.
The gravy years for the Braves - they were never really big about bringing in mid-season "names". They'd add pawns - not rooks. So, they avoided having to overspend to get the mid-year sales studs.
Thanks, Sandy. Maybe the next keys are:
1. Not screw up Smoak-Ackley-Pineda-2011 Rd.1 pick (all of which have/will have abundant natural talent)
2. Smoak doesn't need to be Pujols or AGone, but he needs to be studly enough to make up for the fact that Ichiro-Figgins-Ackely-Saunders-Guti are essentially complementary players on offense. (And StL and SD are doing just fine with one studly bat and a bunch of complementary players, as Sandy notes can be done.)
3. ADAM MOORE may be the most important player of them all. He's like Ohio in the presidential election. If he swings toward being an impact player and solid C, that changes the whole complexion of the roster.
4. ROBLES is the pitching equivalent. Felix and Pineda ought to be great if they stay healthy. Vargas and Fister ought to hold down the fort. Robles (and the 2011 pick, if a pitcher) will be key.
5. The bullpen crowd looks meatier and meatier (Cortes really is throwing 100 now that he's in the pen), but we've seen a lot of these types flame out before. If you want to see one way to win with 100 OPS+, look at the Padre bullpen: http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SDP/2010.shtml or Rays bullpen: http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/TBR/2010.shtml (of course, we have to get the offense to 100 OPS+ in the first place)
6. That leaves SHORTSTOP. Who knows where Jack will go? Not Triunfel anytime soon.