Revised WAR Stack: The Real Projections and Closing Comments (Part 1)

As a means of showing you a little more about exactly what kind of team I've projected, I will now break down all of the individual batter and pitcher ratings into the components that make up a WAR value, and then do some adding up for the team make projections for team total RS and RA to test whether my 91 win projection is robust to my OPS and DNRA projections.

Remember...for a hitter, there are 4 pieces to a WAR value - wRCAA, FRAA, Replacement Level, and Position Adjustment

We agree with Sandy that the position adjustment for catchers is largely invented nonsense, as such, I am going to ignore the catching position adjustment entirely.  Otherwise, you'll get to see how everything breaks down per player to get to the projections I made in the previous articles (adjusted slightly to account for Sweeney getting most or all of Garko's PT) and to us being stuck with Kotchman for longer than I hypothesized in my first base projections).  I'll also inlcude all of my playing time projections so you can see that I've projected a full season and nothing more or less.  For pitchers, WAR is comprised of FIP-cbased RSAA (runs saved above average) and a replacement level...my projections use DNRA, rather than FIP.

THE POSITION PLAYERS:

  • JOSH BARD: 40 / -2 / 0 / 1 / 0 / -0.1
  • MILTON BRADLEY: 500 / 17 / -2 / 17 / -1 / 3.1
  • ERIC BYRNES: 280 / -4 / 4 / 9 / 0 / 0.9
  • CHONE FIGGINS: 640 / 14 / 5 / 21 / 2 / 4.2
  • KEN GRIFFEY JR.: 310 / 2 / 0 / 10 / -9 / 0.3
  • FRANKLIN GUTIERREZ: 640 / 10 / 18 / 21 / 3 / 5.2
  • JACK HANNAHAN: 100 / -3 / 3 / 3 / 0 / 0.3
  • ROB JOHNSON: 220 / -2 / 0 / 8 / 0 / 0.6
  • CASEY KOTCHMAN: 380 / -4 / 8 / 12 / -8 / 0.8
  • RYAN LANGERHANS: 80 / -2 / 2 / 2 / / 0 / 0.2
  • JOSE LOPEZ: 650 / 7 / -6 / 22 / 2 / 2.5
  • ADAM MOORE: 370 / -2 / 0 / 12 / 0 / 1.0
  • SCRUBS: 110 / -8 / 0 / 3 / -3 / -0.8
  • ICHIRO SUZUKI: 730 / 24 / 10 / 25 / -7 / 5.2
  • MIKE SWEENEY: 350 / 6 / -2 / 8 / -6 / 0.6
  • MATT TUIASOSOPO: 300 / -7 / 0 / 10 / 0 / 0.3
  • JACK WILSON: 500 / -22 / 11 / 15 / 5 / 0.9
  • JOSH WILSON: 120 / -8 / 1 / 4 / 2 / -0.1

TEAM TOTALS:

  • RAA: +16 (!!)
  • FRAA: +51 (not quite last year's +80...but still good)
  • RL: +203
  • POS: -20
  • WAR: 25.0

Pitching Side Later...but you can see...I'm doing everytghing I can to be realistically negative on offense and still finding an ABOVE AVERAGE offense...mostly because the bench is fantastic even without Garko and with a lot more PA going to Josh Wilson.  A +16 run offense in a neutral park would score 803 runs...in Safeco, it's more like 765 runs...but still...that's a BIG upgrade.

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