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Q.  "Compelling / Fringe"?  Do you have an, um, exact estimate of Rollins' worth for the small crowd at SSI?  Make it seriously funny.

A.  Carson Cistulli, who is more than all right by Dr. D, entered "David Rollins" several times on his lists of compelling fringe prospects.  Here is one of his columns, and it's got a nice .gif of Rollins' delivery.  The camera does happen to lingers past our delivery, well into the flight of the ball.  So you can also savor the blowdown steerike three that ensues.

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Q.  The M's have now drafted Rollins three times that we know about.  He compels them, eh?

A.  The Seattle Mariners are the very last franchise in all of sports, Australian Rules Football included, that can afford to hand a Year Long Willie Wonka Gold Bullpen Ticket to a minor leaguer.  The beginning of Rule 5 Covetousness is as when one letteth off water; therefore leave off Rule 5 urges before they be meddled with.

They luvva luvva luvva Rollins.  Something fierce.

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Q.  Okay.  So get to the point.  What is COMPELLING here?  Not "interesting," not "promising," not "intriguing," but so imperative that yer gonna burn 1 of yer 25 roster cards on a busher?

A.  You saw the Fangraphs .gif.  Here's one more, Rollins twirling an easy bullpen session in 2012.

His delivery fits into the Chuck Finley / Cole Hamels / Cliff Lee category:

• Real tall
• PGA-caliber still head (okay, Hamels can siddown on this one)
• Comes smile-inducingly over the top
• Bobs down like one of those red thermometer yard birdie thingies
• Loose as a Christmas goose, esp. on decel
• Lifts the back foot sky-high every time, speaking to the energy release
• Throws downhill (this is wunnerful, if you just joined us)
• Short-arms it a bit (bent elbow) and gets nice deception

He just flat repeats the motion like nobody's bidness.  And as y'know, when a guy short-arms and gets deception like that --- > it can add like +2, +3 MPH to the effective length.  

And Rollins is real quick to start with.  The generic reports about 89-92 MPH are surely off the mark.  Zduriencik credits him with 94-95 and the .gifs look more like Matt Thornton than Lucas Leutge.  ... well, Roenis Elias.  On a real good day.

And he's obviously got good command, what with the walk rates in the minors, with the hyper-repeatable motion into the bargain.

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Q.  You're making out a Rule 5 kid to be the next coming of Chuck Finley, eh.

A.  The topic at hand is, "Why might baseball people consider David Rollins compelling."  

With this particular talent pyramid, it is weird to even consider blanking out one 25-man spot on a minor leaguer.  

Like f'r instance you are trading Erasmo Ramirez for him.  Like f'r instance would you guarantee a year's roster spot to Justin Leone?  Like f'r instance Jack Z is high on David Rollins, you understand.  Sees him as a potential impact MLB pitcher.  When it rains it pours, brother.

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Q.  Awright, don't get your underwear in an uproar.  Real good fastball, eh.  What about the offspeed?

A.  By all accounts, notably his own accounts, Rollins' offspeed stuff is "a work in progress."  

(Exactly the situation you want to be in, going into Anaheim for three games at +1.0 GB.  An aikido shihan once said, "before you think about taking somebody else's balance, you'd better figure out your own balance.")

Rollins is a starting pitcher through-and-through ... a lefty bullpen guy emphasizes a single signature hook, or split, or something, as Charlie Furbush does.  Rollins though:

• Starter's rhythm, quite extremely so
• Pumps fastballs, rather predictably (again think Matt Thornton)
• Cobbles his way through curves/changeups merely so he can get back to the heater
• Has no RH/LH splits to speak of

The man's a starting pitcher.  So obviously you deploy him to keep Carson Smith's 0.00 lifetime ERA out of Safeco.

We kid.  Talent is talent and Rollins has a shot to be a big Rule 5 grab.

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Q.  So what's the best case here?

A.  Coming out of the bullpen in the 4th or 5th inning, behind Taijuan or WBC-san or Erasmo, flipping the enemy lineup over, giving you those 3-4 "secret weapon" innings that poach three extra wins in a year's time.

Or extra innings, same thing.  Or you get down to your 8th starter, on the year -- happens all the time! -- and David Rollins sails through a nice easy 100 ERA+ for a month.  ... if you think a 100 ERA+ is easy to find at the end of your rotation, you're obviously not the Minnesota Twins.

Or Rollins pumps fastballs at Safeco, refuses to beat himself now, lets the park take care of his embryonic arsenal, and ... your #7 reliever runs a 2-something ERA.  That's a lot of fun, when you've got a stealth reliever diving into its bombing runs when nobody sees it comin'.

Still, though ... what's the UP here?  Rollins doesn't have a path to starting for this club.  He ain't going to surge ahead of Charlie Furbush, no way no how.  He could light it up for two months and then bring back something really interesting from Houston, I guess.  Okay, David Rollins for Jose Altuve and ?.

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Q.  Could he make Best Bet status?

A.  Let's not get any more frazz going on Dr. D's hair than he already sports.  The chances of Rollins making even the Opening Day roster are what, 55%?

Hey.  Rollins can pound a mean downhill fastball from behind his ear, and if a second pitch jells, it's easy to see an impact reliever, especially a guy lurking behind the dark corner waiting to cold-cock you as you saunter by unprepared.   

Johann Santana Rule 5, maybe not.  But carry the scrub for the whole year through and you could easily go into 2015 with an Elias-style asset on the books.  We ain't sayin' thass what's gonna happen.  But you can see what Jack Z is getting at here.

Compelled,

Dr D