Fifth inning, even my wife wanted to know what was going on.  "That doesn't look like the same pitcher!"   She was referring to Jaka's tempo, his body language, and the fact that some of his pitches were not banging off the fence.

..............

Between the 3rd and 4th innings, Jakubauskas evidently decided he was sick of backing up bases.  So he:

1) Started mixing offspeed pitches in

2) Therefore found a better feel for his fastball

3) Clicked into "The Zone" as fast as you'd change channels from Oprah to Kobe

4) Started pitching as though the ball was as light as a feather

I am hoping against hope that he "clicked in" because somebody in the dugout told him it was okay to pull the string on hitters sitting dead-red.  If so, that offers the possibility that Jakalope will contribute sooner than later.

For the last three starts, Jakubauskas has been playing the '07-08 Felix Game:  You know I'm throwing a fastball, and I know I'm throwing a fastball, but I bet I can locate it well enough that I can get you out.   I haven't looked it up, but ... okay, I just looked it up.  Jaka has been throwing somewhere between 77% - 81% fastballs -- and this from a guy Marc W has seen win with his change-speed game.

Currently, only 4 major-league pitchers throw more than 77% fastballs, and two of those are Aaron Cook and Fausto Carmona, throwing swerveballs (not the straight, located FB's that Jaka throws).  Only 10 pitchers, both leagues, throw more than even 70% fastballs, and here Jaka is throwing his (mediocre) FB a full 80% of the time.   Say WHAT?

You can't possibly get any strikeouts by playing I-bet-I-can-locate-this with ML hitters, and Jaka didn't (a piddling 11 in 29 innings).

.

=== EUREKA!  Dept. ===

But!  Starting in the 4th on Friday, Jaka started mixing, and under THOSE circumstances a LOCATED fastball is effective.   I counted at least 15 breaking pitches over the 4-5-6 innings, and three strikeouts in those three innings.  

Jaka's strikes-balls were just about 50-50 the first three innings, and he was taking about nine minutes per pitch.   The strikes were more like 2:1 over the next three innings.   In other words, the THIRD time through the lineup Jakubauskas was far more effective.

Visually and statistically, it was exactly as if somebody on the bench told him, "Okay, you can stop pitching to contact now.  Ellsbury's going to contact you for a cycle if you don't knock it off."

.

=== Earl's Fifth Law ===

Or whatever the number is.

In Weaver On Strategy, Earl made this one of his ten most important laws of managing 95-win teams:  A ROOKIE'S PLACE IS IN LONG RELIEF.  He spends about a chapter explaining all of the benefits to this.

I'm not dogmatic about it, obviously :- ) since I was the yo-yo who originally recommended Jakubauskas as the highest-percentage bet for the rotation, anyway.  And don't think Dr. D hadn't noticed that the M's have given Jaka a wee bit more rope than Mike Hargrove would give an indy-league pitcher.

.......................

But Jaka's first several starts, he has NOT been fine enough with his location to get away with 80% fastballs at 89-91 mph.  Every time he misses out and over the plate, somebody swats it up against the fence with a stick.

So D-O-V had gone to assuming that the newly-minted pitcher needs another year or two before he's ready.   A rough first trip doesn't mean it's time to wander off disinterestedly, however.  Jaka retains the wonderfully quiet motion that may one day have him pitching with Tewksbury-like command.

......................

Those 4th-5th-6th innings renewed my enthusiasm for the here and now.  Dr. D may have been a bit hasty in revising his original opinion.  Supposing Jakubauskas was willing to abandon the all-fastballs approach?  What then?

I'd love to see what Chris Jakubauskas could do with a true Japanese pitch mix.  How about giving us one game in which Kenji Johjima calls a game the way he would for Koji Uehara in a WBC game?

Let Jaka pitch backwards for a game, and then the maybe the location will really sting.

Bring it on,

Dr D