IF, if you're like me, you were quietly seething Friday night that --- > Michael Saunders, the one Mariner who apparently is a threat to the 5.0 WAR mark, was benched. And he was benched with the sinister, lurking idea threatening that --- > maybe the Mariners aren't going to commit to Saunders fulltime, even if he demonstrates 5.0 WAR production.
And IF, if you were seething along with me, you've got to take the good with the bad. Wedge stuck Gutierrez in there, and Gutierrez hit two homers one of 'em barely foul. And this morning we sit here wondering just how many 4.0+ WAR outfielders are there in this org. So, give it up.
Gotta call 'em as we see 'em. Gutierrez, +19 pounds to the good, showed 4.0 - 5.0 WAR form on Friday night. Maybe the M's just added a 4-5 WAR player in the middle of the diamond. Add the talent now, and configure it later.
You see a lot of blossoming contenders going through this phase, the one in which they're losing, but seeing sparkly little diamond gems glittering all around through the grit in the bottom of the tin pan.
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=== Gutierrez, CF ===
Other article, which see. There is the possibility that --- > Gutierrez is the legitimate All-Star that many of you hosers used to think he was -- and that this All-Star has merely been camouflaged by physical ailments.
Gutierrez had 6.3 WAR in 2009. WAR is WAR, true, but let's say you cut Gutierrez' defense down to +10 or +15 runs. That was 4.3 to 5.0 WAR hard on the barrelhead.
Supposing that Gutierrez hits his UP scenario here, the M's have a decision. He's making $7M for 2013 and then there's a wonderful team option, a piddling $0.5M buyout or they can lock him in for $7.5M. If he's back to 4-WAR form he reverts to Huge Asset.
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=== Ichiro, RF/CF ===
No doubt in Dr. D's mind that Ichiro negotiated his 160 games per year when he signed his last contract. It won't be in the text of the document, but it will have been in the form of a clear understanding with ownership. You can stop worrying about his playing time, unless you enjoy spitting into the wind.
Playing CF in a neutral park, Ichiro could probably still score 100 runs and play quality CF defense. 90, 100, 100 runs in CF, that's still a very good player. But in Seattle, playing RF, if Gutierrez, Wells, Saunders and Carp all do what we think they're about to, then THIS is the moment at which Ichiro starts to genuinely become a problem.
Zduriencik is smart and decisive. Over the second half, we'll see whether these four kids jell as quality ML players. If they do, that is what puts the handwriting on the wall this winter.
Baker predicts that Ichiro will head back to Japan to protect his pride. Maybe I'm fancying things, but that's what I'm seeing on Ichiro's face: a kind of seething resignation, even when he gets a hit, like he doesn't appreciate the way the 2012 season is winding things down. Like I say, am probably imagining it.
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Would days off help? I'm personally convinced that they would. We remember a Bill James Player Handbook quote one time on Cal Ripken: "I know nobody asked me, but if anybody did, I'm totally opposed to putting personal goals ahead of the team." This reflects' James own obvious conviction that a little rest is necessary for peak performance.
Seems to me that we have observed this in Ichiro's case.
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=== Carp, LF/DH ===
As you've seen with Casper Wells, if a guy can really play, the cream will rise to the top. Sooner or later. You don't have to worry about Carp's setbacks. If he can hit, he'll show up. ou can't keep a 30-homer man down forever.
It says here that Carp will hit 30+ homers in the big leagues. True, 2012 will go into the books as a washout season, lost when he belly-flopped on the warning track in Japan. But Carp is a 100-RBI man, a Raaauuuuuul-type of value at the plate, and he is a Safeco hitter.
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When Ichrio has had a day off the previous day, either because of the schedule or because he was given a game off, he's gone 21 for 47 with 3 SB, 5 2B, 1 HR and about 40% line drives...not to mention only 2 Ks vs 2 BBs
Seems to me, if he played 100 games instead of 160...he might hit .400. :)
We are a weird lot, M's fans. We recognize the hardships of the travel schedule, complain about the lack of bench utilization...and insist that our favorite players be in the lineup every single night. I'm as guilty of it as everyone else.
That said, playing Saunders 150 games vs 162 games in 2012 isn't going to stiffle his growth at all. He's still a young player and one that has been mired in a gnarly slump of late. A night off isn't going to harm him at all - it might actually help him clear his head a bit.
I like the OF rotation right now, assuming Ichiro sits a game or two per week. Wedge has at least hinted that will be coming. Couple that with Wedge's statement that he's going to sit Gutz to keep him healthy and there should be enough AB's for everyone. Saunders getting a day off every couple of weeks is probably a good idea regardless.
You list five stats there (AVG, SB, SLG, LD%, EYE) all of which are gasp-inducing...
What would the slash line be? Then we could post the slash line as an article title and (these days) set all of pro sports ablaze from Da Hottest Blog In Baseball...
Either that, or give Wedge a little coffee-and-donut encouragement in his quest to get a purchase on wrestling with His Eminence...
It's like he dips his toe in the water, makes sure that the horse hockey doesn't hit the fan based on the comment, looks around comprehensively, and then --- > pulls the trigger with a snarl and a dare to say anything about it.
As a biz manager you've got to be able to appreciate Wedge's surveys of the landscape Grizz :- )
The only stat that was a bit tongue in cheek was the LD%...that was visual observation only because you can't get the LD counts by game I don't think. Or if you can, I haven't seen a site that makes it available.
Otherwise, the Ichiro who is rested appears to swing harder, swing more often, make more contact, run a little faster, hit the gaps more often, and beat out more infield hits.
Working backwards:
06/22/12 - 5 AB, 3 H, 2 R, 1 K
06/19/12 - 5 AB, 4 H, 2 R, 2 2B, 2 RBI
06/12/12 - 5 AB, 2 H, 1 2B, 2 R
06/01/12 - 5 AB, 1 H, 1 R
05/11/12 - 4 AB, 0 H
04/24/12 - 5 AB, 3 H, 2 R, 1 SB
04/17/12 - 5 AB, 1 H, 2 RBI, 1 K
04/09/12 - 5 AB, 3 H, 1 2B, 2 R, 1 SB
04/06/12 - 3 AB, 0 H, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 SB
03/28/12 - 5 AB, 4 H, 1 RBI
I counted one too many games in my previous citation for 2012, including a game where he had a 2B and a HR...sorry about that. Now 2011:
09/15/11 - 3 AB, 0 H, 1 BB
08/26/11 - 5 AB, 2 H, 1 K, 1 SB
08/19/11 - 4 AB, 2 H
08/12/11 - 5 AB, 1 H, 1 2B, 1 R
08/05/11 - 4 AB, 2 H
07/29/11 - 4 AB, 0 H, 1 K
07/19/11 - 7 AB, 1 H, 1 K
07/14/11 - 4 AB, 0 H
07/05/11 - 5 AB, 0 H, 1 R
06/21/11 - 5 AB, 2 H, 1 R, 1 SB
06/17/11 - 4 AB, 3 H, 1 2B, 3 R
06/11/11 - 4 AB, 2 H, 1 3B, 1 R
05/27/11 - 4 AB, 1 H, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 K
05/16/11 - 3 AB, 1 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 1 CS
05/10/11 - 6 AB, 2 H, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 R
05/03/11 - 4 AB, 1 H, 1 R
04/26/11 - 4 AB, 1 H, 1 R, 1 RBI
04/08/11 - 5 AB, 2 H, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 2B, 1 ROE
Now 2010:
09/21/10 - 4 AB, 4 H, 2 R, 1 BB
09/17/10 - 4 AB, 2 H, 1 R, 1 K, 2 SB
09/10/10 - 6 AB, 1 H, 1 K
08/27/10 - 5 AB, 2 H, 1 3B, 1 R
08/25/10 - 7 AB, 2 H, 1 2B, 2 R, 2 BB, 2 K, 2 SB, 1 ROE
08/20/10 - 4 AB, 2 H, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 SB
08/13/10 - 5 AB, 2 H, 1 R, 3 K, 1 SB
07/15/10 - 4 AB, 1 H, 1 2B, 3 RBI
06/22/10 - 3 AB, 1 H, 1 BB
06/19/10 - 4 AB, 2 H, 1 HR, 1 R, 1 RBI
05/28/10 - 4 AB, 2 H, 2 R, 1 HBP
05/25/10 - 4 AB, 0 H, 2 K
05/11/10 - 4 AB, 2 H, 1 2B, 1 RBI, 1 BB
05/04/10 - 4 AB, 2 H, 1 K
04/30/10 - 5 AB, 3 H, 1 K, 1 SB
04/23/10 - 5 AB, 2 H, 2 R, 1 SB
04/16/10 - 5 AB, 2 H, 2 R, 1 RBI, 1 SB
04/05/10 - 4 AB, 1 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 SB
TOTALS:
46 G, 208 AB, 77 H (.370 BA), 10 2B, 2 3B, 1 HR (.452 SLG), 10 BB/HBP (.399 OBP), 19 K (0.53 EYE), 15 SB, 2 CS, 2 ROE (prorate THAT baby out...I dare ya).
So...yeah...thoughts on that?