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Q. Okay, when you put it that way, a blue-chip prospect for a ML ace. But why is everybody apoplectic?
A. Because they tend see prospects as being worth about three times what they actually are, and because they wayyyy overrate Wil Myers.
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Q. But this even looks bad compared to the Bedard trade.
A. Trying to win an argument by the mind-numbing, machine-like repetition of opinion as fact? That is the very definition of propaganda.
Jones scored 13 WAR in 5 seasons for Baltimore; the other players were manure. The M's traded for an ML ace who had led the league in xFIP the previous season, a pitcher who when healthy was one of baseball's best.
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Q. Yes, but a prospect who gets you 13 WAR for 6 WAR money is netting you a profit.
A. How many WAR did Franklin Gutierrez get in Jones' stead? How many did/will Michael Saunders get in his stead?
In judging the worth of an Adam Jones or Wil Myers, sabermigos NEVER SUBTRACT the WAR that will be delivered by the next prospect in line. You have 25 roster slots and 150 prospects. Everybody who is 25-150 is absolutely wasted.
That's one reason that casual fans rate prospects as being 3x what they're actually worth. They forget that if you trade Dustin Ackley, there are Nick Franklin and Brad Miller and Kyle Seager behind him.
Thirteen blinkin' WAR, and they're still trying to paint it as some sort of historic tragedy. Listen, man. If you don't think ANY prospect will give you 2, 3 WAR a year, what is he doing in your starting lineup?!
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Q. Why didn't the Royals deal Alex Gordon for a major league ace, rather than Wil Myers?
A. Maybe because major league ballclubs tend to value the proven stars of the game over the Justin Smoaks of the game.
We just ran a piece by James on this point. Fans are in dreamland about Myers, visualizing the Trout scenario, as they were over Smoak and 1,000 other players.
Look, the internet was madly in love with Myers. Substitute in some lesser-known name, but who was less famous, and substitute (say) Jered Weaver or Clayton Kershaw or something, and nobody makes a peep. The Myersmania had become slightly absurd and Dr. D is glad it's over.
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