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Always felt this was an issue with Zunino. Crushes minor league pitching and gets WAY too pumped and emotional in big leagues. Probably explain some of the streakiness we get out of him.
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This "Player Handbook" entry by James would have been one of my favorites from his old Handbooks or Abstracts. It would have been a classic with regard to any player, but in this case it gives closure to a long chapter in Seattle Mariners history. Bill James Online still only $3 per month, a nominal fee in the literal sense.
Smoak is batting .290/.360/.560 with an 0.50 EYE and after just 89 games, Smoak's 23 homers are easily his career high. First James' essay, then a few SSI thoughts as applied to Seattle:
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Bill, speaking of what is going on with Zimmerman, what is going on with Justin Smoak? He is having a career year at 30, with an OPS of 141. Going into this year he had an OPS of just under 100. Do you think there is any chance he can repeat this next year?
Asked by: Steve9753
Answered: 7/15/2017
There is some chance he could, yes; I would say 50-50 or a little better.
Ordinarily, when a player has a year like this at a later age, you assume that it is an adjustment cycle; he's adjusted, the pitcher's will adjust, and he'll come out somewhere in the middle.
Smoak was . . .well, still is. Smoak is a very emotional player, but I've never actually seen a player who would beat himself up emotionally about his hitting the way Smoak would. There is a class of players like. . . .that player the Blue Jays had playing third, traded for Donaldson, went to the White Sox and is now out of baseball; blanking out on the name. He's too intense, too emotional to play baseball well, but he was emotionally out of control everywhere on the field all the time. There are guys like that who are too amped up to play baseball, and when they are like that at age 23 you send them back to the minors and wait for them to calm down, but when they are still like that at 27 there isn't much you can do about it.
Smoak was the worst I've ever seen IN THE BATTER'S BOX; he would vent a lot of emotion BETWEEN PITCHES. He'd pop up a pitch foul, step out of the batter's box and yell at himself for not hitting that pitch, or for not letting it go, or whatever. I've never really seen a hitter do that so much during an at bat, and obviously that stuff is going to interfere with your ability to play the game. Any time he made an out--three of them a game--you could see him in the dugout remonstrating with himself, although after an at bat it's not so rare; you see that sometimes.
Anyway, this year what I've seen is not only the very talented hitter that he always was, but also a tremendously smart hitter. He has beaten us to the opposite field I don't know how many times this year. . . I don't mean beaten us in the game, but beaten the pitcher, won the at bat. He's CRUSHED the ball opposite field a bunch of times; it seems like he knows whether you're going to throw it inside or outside; if it's inside he pulls it and if it's away he launches it the opposite way. It sort of seems like he was out of control before because he KNEW he was a great hitter and he wasn't getting the results he ought to be getting. At the moment he looks more like Ted Williams than Brett Lawrie. Didn't remember it; I had to look it up.
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1) There are some sports that put a premium on emotion and physicality, like football and hockey. Some are a nice mix, like basketball and soccer. But in some sports, the difference is microns at the clubhead: golf, baseball, chess, pancreas surgery. In these latter, a champion -requires- patience and an even temperament. Adrenaline INTERFERES.
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2) You can begin to relate to all the major leaguers who know they could be making $100M. This All-Star Frustration Complex doesn't apply so much to Taylor Motter or Rich Amaral. But think about Mike Zunino's camera angle when he is hitting ten homers in a month. I just watched a special on Steve Dalkowski ....
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3) "Greed for success" plays in here. Smoak is now focused on taking outside pitches to left field. He's not trying to hit a 5-run homer with every swing. It's the difference on those pitches fouled back over the 3B dugout. Then the big success, paradoxically, shows up.
Has anybody watched Smoak this year? Did he give up the getting-my-toenail-resected grimace?
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3) Dustin Ackley seemed like an even-tempered guy. I still wonder what happened to him. Maybe he just didn't have the talent to cover the whole plate.
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4) Hisashi Iwakuma, Andrew Moore, Nick Vincent. They'd have been good golfers. They coulda shot a great final 18 with toothpicks in their mouths.
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BABVA,
Dr D
Comments
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Apparently, they didn't give him enough at bats in Seattle. The money quote:
"Smoak was never really given the opportunity to be "The Guy" in the Emerald City. In his four full seasons with the Mariners, he played in 466 of a possible 648 games."
No kidding. Seattle sinks 1900 first base at bats into the man and gets nothing but a long string of warning track shots, GIDP, .350 slugging percentage and other atrocities, and its the Mariners fault? Smoak should have said: I'm greatful for the Jays and the Mariners for sticking with me and keeping me in the League for all of these years while I got my [stuff] together. First base is very competitive and a lot of people have had faith in me for a long time."In 2016, Smoak was battling a knee injury all year, and he had Smoakish .650ish results.
I think that the real reason that Smoak is doing well is he finally figured out how to bat right handed. His career platoon from the right side is a .651 OPS and most of that is buoyed by recent times. The first time that Smoak showed any promise as a RHB was in 2015, in his age 28 season.
| .256 | .275 | .564 | .839 |
This year, Smoak's RH platoon split is
| .384 | .439 | .644 | 1.083 |
I think that it took 2000 AB's to fix Smoak's busted RH swing. I also think that Smoak needed to either grow some man muscles, as Lloyd McClendon said, or hit the ball flusher, or both. Maybe Smoak started lifting weights like it was his job and that's why he's doing better. I also also think that Smoak would have "felt comfortable" in Seattle if he slugged .450 some time or another.
Because of Smoak and Kendrys Morales, I've soured on all switch hitters ever. Its too hard to un slump two swings.
Good for Smoak though.
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Smoak was given more than ample opportunity here. Never the guy? Bah!
But it is easy to forget, amidst the never-met hope and promise that we had when he came from Texas, that in two of his four seasons here, Smoak was essentially the player that Valencia is this year.
Danny Boy is a 110 OPS+ guy in '17, Smoak was as 106 in '11 and 113 in '13.
It was his '12 and '14 seasons that were so dismal, 85 and 77.
But he had a big-time shot here, for sure.
BTW, I'm not terribly bullish on Smoak going forward; not 142 OPS+ bullish anyway. It was just a season ago that he hit .217-.314-.391 for the Jays. He's been decent to good in '11, '13, '15 and now '17. He was coyote ugly in '12, '14 and '16.
Inconsistent is his middle name. His '17 season is being fueled by a cosmic vL batting line: .387-.447-.640. Moj pointed this out. He can not sustain that. He's also homering, vR, in 1/14 PA's. His career rate was 1/23, coming into the season. Justin Smoak is having a great season. It won't happen next year.
As to James comment about Smoak's open emotions at the plate, I don't really remember that. Do you guys? Was he THAT demonstrative during his PA's in Seattle?
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Don't remember Smoak being even close to Lawrie-style emotional. I watched him very closely here as I desperately wanted him to succeed, as every slight success he had was surely followed by abysmal failure. Wedge criticized him relentlessly. Wasn't Smoak's warning track power the reason Safeco was modified? The real tantrums were thrown by Saunders, another Blue Jay. Maybe Bill has them confused on the outburst-scale.