You're right Doc, of course.
This team has a bright and shining future. I am VERY on board with that.
It's the present that bamboozles/frustrates me.
I'm having a hard time (and I think the other SSI frustratees are, too) seeing how running Miggy and Baggins (Credit: Doc) out there 6 time a week gets us in the vicinity of the future THIS year.
I don't expect us to drag the Rangers down by the haunches and eat their gizzards, but I expect us to look like an organization that thinks they can soon do that.
I have no problem with guys in Jackson (although Walker as a #5 in 4 weeks would be just right.....and probably accelerate his learning curve), that is fine.
You know my position on Carp, but until he hits the ball hard a couple of games in a row, Tacoma is fine.
But what I fear is that Wedge sees Olivo's two hits yesterday as proof positive that he's about to start hitting .240 or .230, something smoking like that. Those two hits were good for another two week's starts. What was the line about Patton? Give him a headline and he was good for another 100 miles? Something like that. Well, so it is with Miggy and Wedge. Can you every think of a situation where he SHOULD be a DH...er DO? Wedge does, all the time.
On the same line, Wedge will not see Liddi's game, or Well's three hits and two doubles in two starts as reason to play them 6 days in a row. At least, that's my bet.
Figgins? I'm ranted out on that one.
I will give Wedge some credit for laying off the double order of Wilhemsen over the last 3 or 4 games. Where it's due, where it's due. I'm a Equal Opportunity ranter.
You want to excite the paying Seattle hordes? Simply declare that the future is now and move on.
I am still turning them on the tube, almost every game. Love to watch Felix and Vargas and Beavan and Seager and Montero and Wlhemsen and, well you get it.....
But my living room has heard a more frequent blue streak lately, when I see the lineup.
moe
... no matter WHAT cha d-d-d-da-dooooooo or saayyyyyyyy
..............
=== If you have an Ace and a Deuce ===
All you need is a Trey, a Cater, and a Cinque (yes, really). The Mariners even have the Sice, that being Erasmo.
It doesn't take Michelangelo to see the outline of the rotation sculpture through the jagged outlines of the marble block.
::: 4-minute jam:: Gotta have 'em... gimme somethin' now ... yeahhhhhhhhh? ..... a handful of 14K strikeout rates, that is.
.
=== Bring It Own ===
Kyle Seager. 'nuff said.
Still at 30% line drives, no groundballs whatsoever, still swinging out of his shoes, and still lefty in Safeco. He Can. Not. Miss. There is no variation in which White doesn't win or draw. Black will need a miracle defense in order to scrounge the half point.
The floor for Seager is most of those fly balls get caught well in front of the warning track. That has been the way the last several days. That's the floor, and it's a 100-110 OPS+ third baseman for the league minimum -- 3.0 WAR is his floor, at $450K.
The MID is that he doesn't have a flyball problem, which he probably doesn't as a pull hitter here. Then he's a minor star.
The UP is that he's Don Mattingly or something.
.
=== Chemistry ===
There's the possibility that baseball is much more a Strat-O-Matic game than I think it is. :- )
Hey, if the Fangraphs paradigm is right, the Mariners aren't slumping at all. That's just baseball sometimes. We don't mean it ironically. To the extent that the Fangraphs boys are right, to that same extent the Mariners have nothing to worry about on this road trip.
.
=== Piazza: 6.0 to 9.5 WAR Per Year ===
Memo to all you pesky rodent 'net rat smart alecks: Jesus Montero can catch. Thass' it.
::: Barry White baritone ::: Donnn' gooo wayy mad, now. Jusss goo wayyyyyy.
...................
The 'net rats said that he couldn't, that the Mariners needed DH him and DH him yesterday. And why did they say this, do you think? It was because --- > Montero as catcher seemed to good to be true. It had a video-game feel to it. 'Net rats stated that Montero couldn't catch as their way of making a statement that they were well-grounded in baseball expectations.
Montero as a catcher would have been looking at 6, 7, even 9 WAR seasons. It was too good to be true.
It is true.
.
=== G'Morning, G'dAfternoon and G'Night ===
Our team has one o' yer all-time great collections of U-25 players. Of whom Felix is one, or almost.
- SP Felix
- SP Paxton
- SP Hultzen
- SP Taijuan
- SP Erasmo
- IF Ackley
- IF Seager
- C Montero
- IF Smoak
- OF Carp
- RP Capps
- RP Pryor
- RP Wilhelmsen
... Ichiro, League, Vargas, and Co. form the supporting cast. As growing pains go, 7-10 is not super tragic.
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=== You're Light By Three, Chump ===
Three? Exactly who you think you're dealing with here?
- Iwakuma's shuuto,
- Furbush's new slider,
- Paxton's and Hultzen's 7th years banked, that's A.D. 2018 in dog years,
- Mariner Stalk,
- The upcoming Delabar/Wilhelmsen movie -- still fun watching Delabar tilt at the windmills, ain't it?,
- Blake Beavan with the #4 Quality Start total in baseball, since he joined the rotation,
- Erasmo allllmost ready, and
The #3 overall pick in a few weeks.
We live t' serve,
Dr D
Comments
- Felix is implementing a scorched earth policy from the mound
- Vargas has looked arctic as far as his cool-factor goes
- Seager is everything I wanted attitude-wise and more talent-wise
- Wilhelmsen and League are two important and contributing pen parts
- Erasmo looks great, and, uh, we're keeping his innings down?
- Beavan keeps surprising, and I give up on kicking him out of the rotation
- Montero is two inches from becoming an offensive terror at C
- our bench bats are hitting
- The minors arms are rockin'
But we still have these problems:
- Team OPS+: 75
- Brendan Ryan leads the team with a 102 OPS+ and .703 OPS
- Spots 4&5 in the rotation have a combined ERA+ around 50
- Our minor league hitters are not hitting
- We don't use our productive bench enough
Our our 9 starters, only 2 have sat out 3 games so far. Those two? Our third and fourth most productive hitters. Our 3 worst / most-struggling hitters have missed 3 games combined.
It's still early, and I'm glad Wedge is coming around on giving guys days off and the IDEA of pinch-hitting. This can improve.
But the whole offense is struggling right now, which means our automatic losses in the rotation are hurting us badly. And you can't really just give the starting arms a night off and hope it helps them reset.
As I've said before, I'm surprised at how much these early collapses are hurting me. It's the product of HAVING so many bright spots that will contribute to the victories of the 2013 and 2014 Mariners. I want those victories in 2012, since a lot of the talent is already here.
This is gonna be a very hard year, I think - for the team too. Wedge has to get these guys ready to contribute. Smoak and Montero have to carry the RBI duties, and neither has been able to do that so far. Figgins and Olivo are not providing the sort of offensive performance we need from the vets. And neither the veteran pitcher nor the talented rookie in the rotation look like they're gonna stay there very long at this rate.
With the early hitting talent struggles in the minors (By OPS: Franklin .780, Chiang .609, Robinson .596, F-Mart .533, Catricala .426, Moore had another knee surgery...) we're not getting immediate offensive help from down there. The guys already on the 25 man are the guys who have to hit.
We COULD help the pitching staff, but unless Kelley or Ruffin are called up we have to make 40-man moves to do so. I agree with Sandy, we're not likely to do anything drastic (ie, reacting "too heavily" to early results) until sometime in May. So I'm hoping the staff can hang on until then, or the offense can perk up and get some wins even if the pitchers give up a few runs.
But nobody has the staff to win very many games with a 75 OPS+ offense. The bats have to warm up. We have some future All-Stars in the batting order - I need them to start swinging like it. Last year Smoak carried this offense for the first 6 weeks.
We need somebody(-bodies) to step up soon this year or we're definitely not making it to June as a competitive club. Knowing how fond I am of the talent we're putting together on this team, that's tough to swallow.
~G
I keep reminding myself that GMZ has 3 conflicting priorities this year: 1) Win now to bring back the fan base, 2) Maximize the asset value of each player, 3) Develop the young players. When all 3 priorities come into congruence for a particular player, GMZ should act swiftly & decisively; e.g. Figgins should be DFA'd now - there's no more value to maximize; he's not winning games; he's holding back young players. Bring up Carp now. Olivo should become back-up catcher, playing only against lefties, occasionally. Same reasons as Figgins. Split the remaining time between Montero & Jaso. We need to find out if we have the 2010 or 2011 Jaso and we can't do that if he literally never catches. Next lineup decision when Gutierez is ready - if GMZ is really bold, that might be the time to part ways with Olivo if he continues to play poorly & Montero continues to look strong.
Send Erasmo down to AAA now to stretch out for starter role, which maximizes his value. Replace with Kelley to find out if he is part of our future pen. Bring Erasmo back up to replace Noesi or Millwood, whichever one continues to falter. If Noesi, send him to AAA to refine his off-speed pitches. If Millwood falters and looks terminally useless, DFA him - not winning games, no value to maximize, holding up one of the Big 3 or Capps and/or Pryor. Give the ball more often to Iwakuma to find out what we really have so that we can maximize his value with either a trade or possibly an extension, if that makes sense. Right now, pitching him once every 16 games gives no indication of his value.
My $.02.
I hadn't noticed that, but it's a great point.
The Figgy / Ichiro experiment basically worked, and teams have gotten a look. He is what he is. If there's any value, great.
I'd be very inclined to take whatever's out there now. Standing around "waiting for some team to see its need" is looking like procrastination in this case.
My $0.01.
Looks like 90% of SSI readers are more than ready to see the transition to CYWNPTP's.
The Olivo-Ryan-Baggins-Millwood idea was good and sound. But with the current situation, you start to wonder whether it is a Grand Strategy on Chemistry, or whether it's more of a comfort zone for the coaches. Start to wonder, we sez.
Also would like to know whether there is a bias against Iwakuma-san.
Dr: "I've got some bad news. You only have 24 hours to live."
Patient: That's horrible! What could be worse news than that!"
Dr. "I've been trying to reach you since yesterday."
.........
Hadn't thought of that G. The pain factor IS surprising. :- )
We know that Zduriencik is more anxious than us for Ackley, Smoak, Montero, (Carp) to start swinging. While they aren't, it could help us tread water if the other spots in the lineup weren't glove-only team captains, no?
Fact is, Sale, Humber etc. have thrown some good games. Maybe the M's will run into some hittable pitches this week. It could happen.