Seattle Sports Insider

Controlling the Zone

Our Pizzano is pretty rare

Posted by

1/1/16

This "Controling the Zone" discussion got me to thinking: Just how rare is it to find a guy who really does control the zone, season in and season out.

Well, if you look at AA guys, it is pretty rare.

So last season, our Dario Pizzano was at 19 BB's and 20 K's, down on the AA farm, before he was injured. He was 45-38 the previous year at AA. For his MiLB career he has 181 BB's and 163 K's.

So I wondered how many AA guys walked more than they K'ed in '15 AND how many of them have more career BB's than K's? And I do realize that Pizzano missed walking as often as he K'ed last year by one BB.

Well it turns out (to the best of my B-R research) that 16 AA guys with more than 140 AB's walked more than they K'ed. The most prolific was a guy named Mike O'Neill, a Cardinal farmhand, who waked 37 times and K'ed 19 times. Over his career he's at 319-163!! Wow!! But at age 27 he made it to AAA last year for the 1st time. In 1834 MiLB AB's, he has 4 HR's and an ISO of .070.

2 of the 16 guys have MLB experience, Max Kepler and David Adams. Neither of those guys has more BB's than K's for their career. Adams bombed with the Yankees in '13. Kepler got 7 AB's for the Twins last year.

Mike O'Neill was one of 5 of the 16 AA guys (not counting Pizzano) who had more career BB's than K's: The others were Tyler White (Houston hotshot) w/174-164, Raywilly Gomez (Dodgers) w/268-210, Breyvic Valera (Cardinals) w/182-162, and Yandy Diaz (Cleveland's Cuban rocket) w/127-105.

J.P Crawford (Phillies) narrowly misses the mark with 160 BB's and 163 K's.

B-R actually only lists the 100 batting leaders for each of the three AA leagues (Eastern, Southern, Texas), so I was really only looking at the 300 "best" AA hitters of '15. About 5% of them walked more than they K'ed in '15. If I include Crawford and Pizzano, then 7 of those 300 walked a ton in '15 AND have walked a ton over their careers. 7 of 300 is just about 2%. 2% of the "best" AA hitters, high MiLB guys mind you, "control the zone," as it were.

The career ISO's of those guys look like this: O'Neill .070, White .178, Gomez .078, Valera .177, Diaz .188, Crawford .118, Pizzano .168.

As far as BB'ing, not K'ing, AND having some pop, our Pizzano finds himself nearly inside the top 1% of the AA hitters I looked at.

There may be some AA hitters, guys who BB'ed and didn't K, who moved on to AAA or MLB before they got to 140 PA's. But, with the evidence I could find, our Pizzano is a top-line AA "control the zone" guy. To tell you the truth, I thought he was pretty good. Tyler Smith, who I'm high on, has never come close to BB'ing more than he K'ed. His career numbers are 152-211.

What does it all mean? I really don't know, other than the "Controlling the Zone" skill set is pretty dang rare at AA. I'm going to leap to the conclusion that it is pretty dang hard to teach, as well. Don't ask me why.

BTW, our Seth Smith, a lefty bat-COF'er like Pizzano, had 206 BB's and 358 K's over his MiLB career. He ISO'ed .194. Boog Powell was at 29-38 last year and is at 163-175 over his MiLB career. He's ISO'ed .079.

There you go. I should do a AAA study, too. But right now I'm off to a workout!!

Happy New Year all!! Go team!!

Moe

Comments

Excellent research!

I'd been wondering about this, the number of Boggs-Edgar types currently extant. If Pizzano is indeed in the top 1% for EYE (weeding out the 27-year-olds and pure slap hitters), that's pretty cool.

Didn't know b-ref.com had this kind of table. Looking at the PCL leaderboards and sorting by volume BB's, it doesn't look so different from the M's own affiliates leaders. The first guy in the whole PCL I'd get interested in, based on EYE, would be Tyler White (24-year-old with modest gap power) and then .... maybe Ketel Marte.

Amazing how many older journeymen lead the PCL in production.

Thanks Moe!

AAA

Tyler White!! Shows up on my AA list and then the AAA list, too. He's a guy to watch, despite being a 33rd Rd. draft pick. He's .311-.422-.489 in his MiLB career. Dollars to donuts he plays for Houston in '16.

Looking at the rest of AAA, I find Christian Colon with 21 BB's and 18 K's in '15. He's not quite at a 1/1 Eye over his MiLB career: 189-218, but he's hit .303-.361-.382 over 168 MLB PA's in '14-'15. Plays for KC, go figure!

Austin Barnes (35/36 and 252/249), Irving Falu 48/46 and 498/483) and Cole Figueroa (44/27 and 382/280) are the only guys I can find who had the required 140-ish AAA PA's, a 1/1 Eye in '15 and a 1/1 Eye over their career.

Barnes has 37 MLB PA's, Falu (32 years old) has 130, and Figueroa 28. Each has an 80-ish MLB OPS+.

Barnes ISO's .139 in the minors, Falu .078 and Figueroa .096.

Controlling the Zone is even more rare in AAA.

PIzzano looks better and better all the time.

There's definitely something here

If, in an exceedingly small sample size, you wind up with guys whose first names include Dario, Irving, Yandy, Breyvic and Raywilly, there has to be a correlation between focus/perseverence and beign made fun of during third grade recess.

Those guys always had to have a sharp eye

With a name like Breyvic, you were likely to have a bunch of erasers and spit wads chucked at you in the 3rd grade. A sharp eye and the ability to determine the location of incoming projectiles likely helps get you through the day!

Who fits the mold?

OK...I have no life! This post proves it.....or maybe it is just that I took a morning off from swinging flies for steelhead (after 8 straight days) and had nothing better to do! So, I looked at every AL team, except us. I was looking for LH bat COF types. Basically I found 18 guys. Some of them are speedy CF types, as well, but have played the corners: Jackie Bradley, Adam Eaton, Michael Brantley, Ben Revere, Brett Gardner, etc. I was looking for guys who had + Eyes in their MiLB years, and those guys were Revere, Gardner, David DeJesus, Mike Brantley, J.B. Schuck. Why + Eyes? Well, our Pizzano has one of those (178-159). Then I tried to narrow it to guys who had MiLB lines like Pizzano has had (and I'm assuming he does basically as well at AAA): .296-.383-.462.

Revere was .326-.383-.404, not quite a good fit. Better Avg. and less ISO. Revere also didn't quite actually have the plus Eye, 122-143.

Gardner was .290-.390-.385 with a 240/293 Eye. Not a bad fit.

DeJesus is really a nice fit! .300-.399-.459 with 127/129!

Brantley was .303-.388-.377 with a 292-218 Eye!! He had a better Eye than our guy has, bith a bit less pop!

Shuck was quite similar to Brantley: 303-.381-.391 with 300/242.

How are they doing in the bigs? Well, all are decent or show promise. Revere is at a Career 88 OPS+ and Shuck is at 85 (in the 2 seasons where he had the most extensive MLB time he was at 98 and 95). The other guys are over 100. DeJesus is the most comparable to Pizzano, based on MiLB numbers, and he's a fine pro hitter, .275-.345-.412. Of all the LHB, COF's I looked at, the one with neary identical MiLB numbers (minus the + Eye) to PIzzano is Shin-soo Choo. He was a .297-.385-.453 farmhand. That's almost a perfect match.

What's it all about, Alfie? Well, there aren't many existing AA guys with Pizzano's Eye. There are far fewer at AAA, and Pizzano would have been there early last summer, minus the injury. When you look at current AL COF's who hit from the left side, you find a few guys who have MiLB numbers that compare favorably to Pizzano. Of those AL COF's, mind you, only 2 had more walks than K's in their MiLB PA's: Shuck and Brantley, although DeJesus was basically there. Revere, Gardner and Brantley have all played considerable amounts of CF, so speed is part of their game. But DeJesus and Shuck fit the template nicely. In his 2 most extensive MLB years, Shuck was basically a .285-.333-.360 bat. Make that 96 OPS+ Remember that Pizzano has considerably more MiLB pop than J.B. had. DJesus is a .275-.345-.412 MLB bat. He's been over .300 twice and over .290 2 more times.

There's our Pizzano projection (maybe): Somewhere from a Shuck with more pop up to a DeJesus. Outside chance of looking like a Choo. Well, maybe well outside.

Of course, the killer question is how many AA guys with a LHB AND a plus Eye wash out and don't become a MLB-level hitter? Don't know.

But when I do a very quick look at the AA leagues in 2010, I find 18 guys who had 1/1 Eyes that season. Of those 18, 12 have played in the bigs. Of those 12, 6 were LH bats. Of those 6, 3 don't really fit Pizzano, as they don't have career + Eyes in the minors. They just got hot in '10. Those would be guys like Lucas Duda, Ryan Kalish, and Cedric Hunter (with 4 MLB PA's). One of the 6 waa a 35-year old Timo Perez, so let's chuck him out.

You wan't to know who the remaining two guys are? Well, hold your hat! We're left with Steve Clevenger and Dustin Ackley!! Clevenger clearly isn't a COF type, but his MiLB line of .310-.373-.423 with 260/289 matches Pizzano fairly well. He's a .228-.280-.327 guy in the bigs, but we're not expecting C's to hit much. BTW, I seem to remember Doc liking this guy as a late bloomer!

And we're left with Dustin Ackley. An Ackley who most of of agree will eventually hit again. An Ackley who has a .293-.399-.451 150/134 MiLB line that neatly matches our Pizzano. An Ackley who is a career 94 OPS guy, despite the fact he drove us nuts. An Ackley who topped out at 120. DeJesus only exceeded that once.

I picked 2010 at random, assuming some of those AA whackers would be in the bigs by now, and I end up with Clevenger and Ackley. Weird. I may have missed some 2010 guys, but it was inadvertent if I did.

And BTW, the 18 AA '10 guys who walked more than they K'ed follows nicely along with the 16 guys who did it in '15. Doing it in a single AA season is no guarantee of MLB success, as Mike Nickeas, Che-Hsuan Lin and Blake Lalli will tell you, among others. But doing it in AA AND over a MiLB career ups the chances that you'll be a useable to better MLB guy. If you're a lefty bat, it seems to increase it even more.

Well, crud! I was going to do this in about 30 minutes....that was 90 minutes ago. But I'm left with Pizzano that looks something like an Ackley-DeJesus-Shuck combination, with a bit of Choo thrown in.

Make him a 100-ish OPS+ bat.

Or make him Ryan Kalish, in which case you can have him.

I need to get a life!

Chasing fish tomorrow morning....so I won't bore you guys. YOu can look forward to that.

Go Team....and Go Ducks!

Moe

And AAA, 2010

Looks like 13 AAA minimum qualifiers in 2010 ran 1/1 Eyes. All but 2 of those guys have played in the bigs. the Best of which are Carlos Santana (Cleveland), Michael Brantley and Logan Morrison.

Of those 13, Morrison, Eric Sorgard, Kila Ka'aihue, and Will Rhymes are the best comparables to Pizzano, as they are LHB's.

Rhymes had a .284-.352-.373 MiLB line with 400/437. He wasn't the batter Pizzano is (seemingly) and has run a .266-.328-.334 line in the bigs. No pop, but he only had a .089 ISO on the farm.

Sogard was a .298-.382-.418 farmhand, with 300/260. Those are Pizzano-like, except for less pop. He's been a .239-.295-.313 big leaguer. As a utility IF guy, that might work, not as a COF. Let's hope Pizzano's not Sogard. Morrison didn't walk as much as Pizzano in the minors (260/311) but his .287-.379-.459 line is similar. He's a .246-.326-.410 big leaguer. I've written before that Morrison as a rookie, with only 2 homers but an Eye of 41-51, was way more interesting than he became the next year, when he (seemingly) started trying to hit homers. He was a 123 OPS+ guy as a rookie, .283-.390-.447! Would I love to have THAT Morrison, you say? You bet!! Something changed in Morrison in Year #2. I'll bet you he was instructed to try to pull the ball more.

Ka'aihue never amounted to much in the bigs. OPS of .687 over 465 PA's. He was only a .263 hitter in the minors, too. He was a power guy, and not really comparable to Pizzano. He waas almost a TTO guy down on the farm.

So Sogard and Morrison are guys you can throw into the Pizzano stew, based on their '10 AAA and career MiLB numbers.

One of those guys is interesting.

If Pizzano, as a AAA hitter, is close to what he has been (which makes sense) then he will certainly get an MLB shot. Make him, likely, as something like Ackley-Morrison-DeJesus-Shuck COF bat.

Just eyeballing it, the 5500 Ackley-Morrison-Shuck PA's equal something like .248-.318-.386. DeJesus has 5900+ PA's at .275-.349-.412.

Summed up, that should equal something like .263-.334-.400. In other words, about a 100 OPS+ bat, with significantly better single seasons. This time looking at it in a slightly different manner than above, and not factoring in the Sogard numbers, due to his reduced MiLB pop. Seth Smith is .263-.344-.452 over his career. As a AA player he was .294-.361-.483. More pop than Pizzano, but he didn't "control the zone" nearly as well. Smith's slugging numbers are aided by 3 compete seasons in Colorado, where he slugged .624, .585, and .513. Make him about a .435 guy outside of Coors.

Pizzano becomes almost Smith-like, in that universe.

All this gathered data, and now watch the kid fail! :)

Sigh.