=== Template Fugit Dept. ===

John Lackey has a very understandable (pitch) arsenal.  (And the ol' headlock/meat tenderizer arsenal is pretty repeatable, too.)

Check his pitch type values and you'll see that he has a verrrrrry good 91-92 fastball, well located, whipsawed against a terrific overhand curveball.   He throws the curve a good 25% of the time and its run value is sky-high.

Two-pitch pitchers are easy to understand.  Lackey of course has a 3rd very plus pitch, the slider, but his basic game is fastball-hammer.   He's Aaron Sele with better stuff and a third pitch.  

Lackey is no enigma; his pitch sequences are understandable, and satisfying to watch.

..........

Roy Halladay is also very understandable.  He throws the heaviest fastball in the league, getting blizzards of sawed-off groundballs, and he also has a great curve ball with which to jack up his K rates.    Tim Hudson, in his prime, was similar:  a ferocious sinker whipsawed against a strikeout forkball.

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=== Give 'em the 'ol 60-13-13-13 ?! Dept. ===

But what are Felix' pitch sequences?   Check out his pitch type distribution and you'll see he has no second pitch.  He has three supplementary pitches, none of which has emerged.   

This is confusing.  I find the lack of clarity annoying.  :- )  Felix doesn't whipsaw his fastball against any particular pitch; he throws the other three pitches at random, 9-14% each.  

I can't think of another pitcher who has three interesting offspeed pitches, and who hasn't decided which one is the axe.   Satchel Paige, and El Duque, I guess.

I'm not complaining.  I'm just musing.

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=== A New Pitcher Every Year ===

Phil Jackson once revealed that he quit the Lakers, the first time, because Kobe Bryant came back each year a completely different person again.  Felix' catchers can say the same.

Trendwise, it's even more confusing than it is in any single year.   His FB pitch type values were terrible in 2006 and 07, but good in 08 and great this year.

Yet his SL run values were also way up and down -- independently, in different years.

And his CB run values were way up and down -- also in different years!   In 2006 and 2009, Felix' curve was awesome -- but in 2007 and 2008, it got pounded.   

Against this, Felix had a bad FB, good curve in 2006, good FB bad curve in 2007 -- and the slider did its own thing, yo-yo-ing up and down during the same years independently.

Do you see what we're getting at here?  Felix' arsenal, and pitch sequences, haven't been coherent.  ...that's not necessarily bad.  El Duque didn't know what he was going to throw, so the batters didn't, either.  :- )

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=== Finding His Level Dept. ===

In 2009, Felix solved the problem brilliantly.  Everything he throws has a sky-high run value.  :- )

The common thread seems to be that Felix' FB, since 2007, has gotten better three years in a row:

-0.5 runs per 100 pitches - 2007

+0.3 runs - 2008

+0.6 runs - 2009

Felix' splits vs LH are now very good.   He is .229/.298/.340 against lefties who have been stacked against him.  

So the thing is, he seems to have honed and refined and perfected the command and "shape" of his fastball until it's consistently a weapon that batters can't do much with.   He apparently doesn't throw two-seamers screwballing out into the barrels of LH's bats. 

He throws FB's like John Lackey does, well located, in and out, up and down, with real good command.  Of course he throws the fastball much harder than Lackey does.   I now think of Felix as a type of super-John Lackey who splits Lackey's curve ball out into three random breaking pitches.

Of course, next year he might be something different.  He's a hard kid to understand.

Hail the King,

Dr D