Great read, (as always), Doc.
Just want to note that as fantastic as your PBP pitching disections are ... they don't address what I believe is the ultimate arbiter between success and failure in the majors ... consistency. Fister, (like all pitchers), will have bad outings. The biggest unknown with young pitchers is what's the bredth and depth of their natural swings in performance.
I keep trying to find some "tell" about consistency from looking at minor league lines, and in all honesty cannot find one. I used to believe walk rate was the key. If you can throw strikes when you need to, I'd think your game-to-game variation would be smaller. But walk rates seem to drastically change for lots and lots of young guns coming up. The success stories eventually get things worked out -- the failures don't.
As I noted when there was much enthusiasm for Jaku ... how good you are is a combination of your best AND your worst.
That said, your analysis makes me very optimstic about Fister. The "it" being discussed is precisely what Z seems to be searching for in every player he scouts. And "it" isn't easy to identify. Z believed Olson had it, and this has not proven to be the case. Of course, having watched a decade of the ultimate "it" master, (Maddux), I profess a preference for pitchers over throwers. This is why I felt Wash got a bad rap for much of his stay in Seattle, and was thrilled to see him have such a wonderful final act.
I'm hoping that if Fister and Dash do develop into solidly reliable starters, (and the club can get Felix extended), then the future could turn out to be especially bright for the club. The really, really, really fun part of all this (for me), is that while you are often quite entertaining in venting your angst and ire about the defense-over-offense decisions for the club -- I strongly believe that if the club can maintain that defense for another couple of seasons, then they will be in a position to create MASSIVELY overvalued pitching that can be traded for the very bats you covet.
I do NOT think the importance of the quality defense behind these young guns. As badly as Olson and Vargas have been panned, (and rightfully so), they both managed to post "decent" numbers. Wash - a 'decent' pitcher, posted EXCEPTIONAL numbers. And while FIP et al are being used more widely by clubs ... the pull of Wins and ERA remain incredibly strong, and influence trade decisions.
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As a final point ... I think it may have escaped notice by most that the Angels offense is scoring 5.7 runs a game ... the SAME as the Yankees lineup. While the Angels trail the Yanks by almost 40 points in OPS, and are 2nd only to the Yanks in total bases. Having done this with Vlad missing 50 games just adds to the argument that ANY pitcher who can shut down the Angel offense has done something special.
Q. Executive Summary?
A. Radke-esque performance: fastball moved around the zone, devastating change, rock-solid mound presence. Seven innings, one run, a W.
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Q. How was the velocity on the FB?
A. Best it's been all year. We were worried a couple of games ago as he fell into the 86 range, but Tuesday he had the foot back and then added a foot. He was routinely 88-89, touching 90.
So that was awesome, to see the extra length on the FB. He was into Radke territory if not a bit more.
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Q. The command on the FB?
A. Very good. Johjima frequently caught the 89 fastball just by pivoting his wrist a little, and only a couple of times all game did Fister center a high FB that could have been tatered.
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Q. The movement on the FB?
A. Did not think he had the violent swerve that he had against the Yankees, maybe *because* he was throwing his hardest all year. He did have 89, 90 mph though, with excellent command.
Of the three FB attributes ... velo, movement, command ... he's usually had a random 2 of the three.
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Q. The change and the curve?
A. Each time he's pitched, his changeup has been brutal on enemy hitters, and he's thrown it a lot. Again Tuesday, he threw 39 changeups and 51 offspeed pitches.
For some reason he doesn't throw that yakker much, about a half-dozen times a game, but it is very effective.
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Q. The mound presence?
A. See Money Pitch, Money Pitcher.
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Q. How worried are you about 2 BB, 2 K, and only five swinging strikes?
A. In this particular case, not very, because:
(1) The lack of K's were due more to the Angels than anything else;
(2) The ump cost Doogie a couple of K's;
(3) Fister's prototype Brad Radke was not an overwhelming pitcher;
(4) The balls in play weren't home run threats.
............
Doogie can strike batters out four ways, and none of them were going to happen on Tuesday:
Fastball just off the plate -- the Angels' EYE is terrific right now. They're not swinging at balls. And the ump was not giving them. So Doogie will get those on other nights.
Changeup, swung thru -- the Angels are keeping their hands back just awesomely. I give them credit here. (Doogie did get Abreu this way.)
Curve ball, garbage swing -- he didn't throw it much, didn't execute it, and it wouldn'ta worked anyway
Slider low-away for Beltre strikeout -- he got one of these. But again, the Angels weren't fishing.
.............
The two-K game simply underlines that Fister, even on his best night, is not going to overwhelm anybody. Brad Radke threw many 7IP, 1ER-type games in which he didn't strike guys out.
Radke, and Fister, at their best -- they are going for 3-5 strikeouts, 0-1 walks, and avoiding the mistakes that lead to deep fly balls. Doogie did exactly that, against a dangerous lineup that was at its best.
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Q. Which upgrades him for 2010? Or not?
A. Tuesday's performance ratchets Doogie up a looong ways on my 2010 depth chart, because it's another tough lineup (cf. NYY) that Doogie managed like a veteran.
He is showing the ability to execute his game -- show the FB to get to the change -- on a consistent basis.
He's showing legitimate ability to steer clear of trouble (BB's and centered pitches) and legit ability to fan 5+ batters per game with very few walks.
The FIP might be a good bit higher than the ERA, but if he executes this Radke-like game with consistency, his ERA would stay in the high 3's in Safeco. He's the kind of guy you want, in Safeco, with fast OF's: don't beat yourself. Make them hit three singles to score.
Right now, Doogie's looking like it's him, RRS, and Morrow in the rotation with the Big Two. Ian Snell's got a ways to go if he's going to survive an Erik Bedard comeback.
My $0.02,
Dr D
Comments
In the articles, that point is addressed with each remark that we make concerning the "executability" of a pitcher's game.
For example, our remarks about the 2-1 pitch that Fister threw to Abreu in the 1st inning addressed start-to-start consistency first, second, and third.
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Opinion here is: if Fister can get two of the three components on his FB (velo, command, movement) then it will be fine as a 2nd pitch and he'll be very effective. But we don't know whether that will be the case.
Consistency was what we talked about all the way through.
In the bullpen, he hit his spots constantly, and he changed speeds very well. As we said many times, the *question* is whether he would show plus command once in the rotation, and we gave a 30%, 40% chance that would be the case.
Jaku's 'consistency' as an ML starter never developed past the first inning. He got into the rotation, started throwing 90% fastballs, and that with poor command.
The 'if' on Jaku was well stated over and over, and he didn't meet it.
Couldn't agree more amigo, that the influence of the defense *and the park* have been a huge part of this unreal string of successes that Adair has had with Vargas, Olson, and all the rest of them.
That said, the defense and park wasn't going to help Silva or Batista :- ) and we note that Vargas, Olson, et al had their clocks run out on them, second trips around the league...
I like the Radke comp as Fister's upside. Thats a pretty good one.
Can RRS and Fister be poor-man versions of Pettite and Radke?
I like French's upside a poor man's Ted Lilly (with a little less of a changeup). We just need to figure what the heck happened to that slider. He was excellent in Detroit and meat in Seattle ever since the dissapearance of that pitch (even despite recovering some velocity).
French looks like a completely different pitcher from the one we saw in Detroit, and I don't care for the new French's future.
The old one, with the calling-card breaking pitch, might have figured out a way to get batters out consistently, in Lilly or Beuhrle style. This one seems to be morphing into a Garrett Olson clone.
I wouldn't go quite that far (more like Jason Vargas), but ya, without the slider its hard to see how French sticks in any role really. He'd just be pitching depth in AAA like Vargas.
I'd breath a lot easier if French started flashing that pitch in his next start again.
... is that once a player SHOWS a skill, he OWNS a skill.
Meaning, once a guy shows a 135 power index, he might take two years off, but you're liable to see that 130-150 power "suddenly" arrive back on the scene and then permanently...
Next week, next year, or three years from now, we expect French to wake up about the slider...