.
Interesting 'put, in the threads, as to the idea of concept of bringing Jason Vargas back. Terry McDermott volleys back, though ... , --- > "Vargas likes LA and LA likes him. Don't bank on that one being much of an option." ::daps:: Terry.
............
You know what, from a Three True Outcomes standpoint, Jason Vargas just had his best season. He fanned a career-high 6.5 batters, and Shandler's rule of thumb is that finesse pitchers can star at 5.6 and above. Vargas kept his BB and HR rates at career norms.
In 2013, his changeup was superb, as usual, scoring a +2.00 runs per 100 pitches result. His curve had career-best results, into the bargain. Wow! Vargas plus an emerging curve ball.
His bete noir was the fastball, which for some reason (probably nothing important) got tattoo'ed around the yard. Very typical situation here: he focused on the curve ball, lost just a bit of touch on the fastball command, and centered a few. Quite possible. If so?, then in 2014 it would be very typical for him to jell with his total game, and have his best season.
We're just noodlin'. Variances with Jason Vargas are subjugated to the real diagnosis there, his consistency. His fastball MPH, his mechanics, everything, very consistent, relative to other MLB pitchers.
Vargas is who he is: a soft-tossing lefty who chews innings and matters a lot more to real GM's than to baseball fans.
It's a funny thing: Vargas gave up a 94 ERA+ last year, and his career ERA is 91. That's a 4.30 ERA in pitchers' parks. I had no idea his ERA was that weak, did you? He's a quality pitcher.
................
SSI's view of the world? If the M's see themselves as being set, 1-4...
Then for that (de facto) #5 slot you'd want to go either (1) a young #5 with talent, a developmental kid, and spend the money on hitting, or .... (2) an impact player such as Lee, Price, etc ... in the #5 slot you are sort of playing with house money, as it were, and a $10M-for-2.5 WAR baked potato would be less synergistic than some of your other options...
When you've got four pitchers you like in the rotation, that weights "Stars & Scrubs" even more heavily in the slot you've got left to play with.
There are a variety of dynamic approaches I'd like to see with the 5th rotation slot, rather than the "spend your FA money to lock in secure-feeling, Batista-like, average MLB(TM) performance" approach.
.................
And Dr. D therefore has verrrrrry little doubt that the Mariners are interested in a $10M type of Miguel Batista, Jarrod Washburn, or Carlos Silva to slot in front of the real talent we saw in September. It's the way these guys think.
Be Afraid,
Dr D
I guess we can just hope that one of the other teams with money decides to out bid Jack again.
At least we can count on Jack keeping within a certain budgetary expectation of what the Mariners determine is fair market value for any player... and if any team goes over that market value, Jack goes to plan B or C or....
Well you could cherry pick the Bavasi mistakes et al. Batista and Silva etc. I could counter with Prince Fielder, Josh Hamilton, and Albert Pujols. I'm looking for the middle ground. Cheap players who have had sustained success in the past. I dunno, Eric Chavez, Corey Hart, and Grady Sizemore to name a few. Low cost and high risk perhaps. not looking for players who cash in on outlier seasons. Maybe add a high profile guy AFTER the club has mixed in a couple of high potential players on the cheap.
Given that Lincecum just got $17 mil/year, I wonder what Vargas's FA value is? It might be worth it for LA to extend him a QO. It also might (gulp) mean that Joe Saunders is headed back to Seattle for 2014.
FA pitchers got a whole lot more expensive with that Timmy contract.
This would solve our Smoak can't hit LHP problem! For the past several years I have been pushing being patient with Smoak, because his LHB swing resembles Griffey so much, but his RHB skills or horrid. For the past several months I've been trying different lineup scenerios with Smoak only batting against RHPs. Signing Morales & trading for Butler would solve the Smoak debacle, and we can include Smoak in a trade package along with Franklin (and move Ackley back to 2B). Braun and Gallardo are available, Restructure Gutz contract & sign Ellsbury and we just solved our 2013 Defense issue we had, while improving offense (which our offense wasn't the biggest issue last year). We had 'some' strong offensive numbers like HRs, but our BA and hitting with RISP can improve. Adding Butler, Morales, Ellsbury and trading for Braun would solve those issues. Of course I want Stanton BADLY, and I truly feel we are the team that could actually land him with the prospects we have, BUT I don't think we have enough prospects to trade for Stanton AND Butler AND Price/Gallardo.
I might be ok with a cheap enough Vargas. I don't expect him to be better, but I know what he is. He is not Garland, Harang or Bonderman. If Vargas is your worst pitcher and becomes the Lefty before Felix, Paxton could maybe be 3rd though I'd be fine switching that too. He's only 30, for a LHP that's like 125k on a Honda. If you prefer 2 LHP in the rotation and are spending most of your resources on a leadoff and #4 bat I think Vargas is worth looking at. He's not the sexy choice.
I'd rather have Lee. Even more than that, I'd rather see hitting become contagious here again. I don't think the position player version of Vargas is worth as much to us as he should be. That'd be about like Matt Joyce I think. If he didn't have the history here I would probably have a harder time seeing it work. If the money is available after acquiring a cleanup hitter and filling out positions I'd rather have better than Vargas, but I can see the scenario that Vargas would make sense.