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I'm convinced, but it sounds like the Dodgers are going to make a major play. If the Mariners are making a bid for him, it's likely the best kept secret of all time.
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.... so Tanaka-san went 24-0, 1.27. And guess what: it's not like this season was flukey. Check out his card at b-ref.com, wouldja? The last three years he has averaged 18-3, 1.45.
We read somewhere that Tanaka actually went 26-0. What, did he win two more in the postseason or something?
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Quid Pro Quo, Dept.
Dr. D is himself a sabermetrician, in case you're wondering. His grades were peachy keen in calculus class. His attempts to swing the pendulum back to center are not rooted in sour grapes.
Wins and losses, for a baseball pitcher, do contain a lot of "noise." Joe Saunders had a 17-7 record in 2008 and then a 16-7 record again the next year. These statistics were caused by a lot of things other than the quality of Saunders' pitches. Those other things were the "noise" in the 17-7 and 16-7 stats.
But just because a stat contains noise, does that mean it contains no information? Don't be silly.
Or lazy.
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In this USSM article, my man Jeff Sullivan zigged against the zag, and info-tained his readers by noticing that a huge start, by a rookie, does mean something.
It started when Jeffy was ---> taken aback by the fact that James Paxton had tossed one (1) exceptional game, which featured:
- 10 strikeouts
- 0 walks
Jeffy then built a very fancy saber scaffolding off of this one start. (Imagine if you'd given him a 24-and-0 record to work with!) He demonstrated that if you took all other pitchers who had demonstrated the ability to do this one thing, for one night, that you had a group of pitchers that were much better than average.
- Group A: All ML pitchers, ever = 100 ERA+ ( ... or is it 95?... this gets debated)
- Group B: Pitchers who ever had a single 10K, 0 BB start = 107 ERA+
And, Jeffy points out the mathematical reasoning behind this approach:
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A game like yesterday’s usually isn’t a fluke. Nobody averages a start like that, but generally speaking, you have to possess a certain amount of talent to be able to turn in ten whiffs and zero walks. For worse pitchers, it’s just almost too statistically improbable. Picture a normal curve, on a graph. In the middle is a pitcher’s true talent. The curve tells you about his expected game results. Good pitchers, obviously, are more capable of good games than bad pitchers. It’s math.
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In other words, put [James Paxton's bell curve] of possible performances on a plastic sheet, and put [ML pitchers' bell curve] on another sheet, and overlay them.
Paxton's bell curve will (reasonably) capture the 10K, 0 BB game, but ML pitchers' will not. On Paxton's sheet, that game is at (say) 2 or 3 standard deviations out. But on Joe Saunders' sheet, it's like 5 standard deviations out.
Paxton's curve, therefore, plots to the RIGHT of that of all ML pitchers'. QED.
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Okay, guys. So why is it so Neanderthal to apply the same logic to a 24-0 won loss record?! How far to the right would you plot that pitcher's bell curve, to reasonably capture 24-0 within a coupla SD's?
It's a funny thing. Jeff Sullivan used some very subtle logic -- the overlays of bell curves -- to bring us right back around to square one. First-order stats (W, L, RBI, or single-game pitching scores) can be very useful. Perhaps, like 1920's haircuts, they'll become fashionable again...
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If we don't have you yet. How about Felix' perfect game? ... most of those outs, he benefitted from "lucky" BABIP. There's a lot of noise in BABIP, or in a hitless game.
But supposing you take the group of pitchers who have thrown one? How does that look?
How about the career leaders, or season leaders, in RBI?
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What 24-0 DOES tell us
Take a breath, relax, and do what Bill James does. Include W-L and ERA in your consideration of pitchers. What WOULD you take from Masahiro Tanaka's unbelievable W-L and ERA records?
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That he's consistent. How many nights do you suppose there were, when Tanaka did not throw well? What was the percentage of "off nights," compared to Erasmo Ramirez off nights?
Bill Krueger referred to Hisashi Iwakuma as "a coin-op machine." That is the way with a lot of Japanese pitchers. They work on technique with the idea of being consistent, and that is what happens to them.
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That he's tough with men on base, probably. Some pitchers throw well from the stretch. Iwakuma does. Greg Maddux did. Other pitchers suffer a serious decline from the stretch.
It's funny; there was a particular moment in time when it dawned on Fangraphs -- hey, pitchers have two different motions. Maybe some pitchers are bad with RISP not because they choke, but because of this *non-psychological* factor. NOW it's okay....
Japanese pitchers are, very often, superb in pressure situations. My guess is, Tanaka is as well.
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That he's a superb pitcher. Dr. D has no words for this ... the idea that a pitcher could go through a season undefeated. Undefeated!
The year that Randy Johnson went 18-2, the Seattle Mariners went 27-3 in his starts. That was the middle of a stretch in which the Mariners won 44 of 50 starts by the Big Unit. So ... how much better were the Mariners than the rest of the AL, in those games? They were way, wayyyyy better.
Rakuten, when they have had Tanaka on the mound, have been VASTLY better than their opponents. Tell me that ain't cool.
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That Tanaka's "game" is diamond-hard ... and that he's adaptable. How many different kinds of teams did Tanaka have to beat? Under which circumstances did he win, and under which circumstances did he lose? The Seahawks have one set of circumstances at home; they play under a different set, on the road....
Hisashi Iwakuma went 14-6 last year ... for a terrible baseball team. He started 33 times, trudged through 219 innings, and ... only 6 times did the other team beat him.
How did he do it? Because his pitching works against everybody. If there were some kind of hitter that he couldn't beat, then he would go figure out how to do it.
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That he's durable. How many times was his arm stiff, the game after a long outing? How much did it cost him? (See the post on his "hatha yoga" mechanics.
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That he likes to win. You've probably seen the fist-pumping on YouTube. I guess Felix would have to take his game to another level....
Iwakuma-san, as well as a few other Japanese pitchers, are noted for their liking of pressure situations. Tanaka-san appears to have enjoyed the NPB playoffs. Presumably he would enjoy MLB(TM) playoffs also.
Look, guys. Lou Piniella has one stat he likes best, when he is looking at minor league pitchers. Their W/L records. Taking a look real quick, I notice that Felix was 30-and-10 in the minors... I don't say that's the end of the discussion. But it is interesting food for thought.
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Iwakuma-Plus?
The thought has been floated that Tanaka is "Iwakuma plus 5 mph." Heh! :- )
Well, maybe. And we're not trying to get in anybody's grill. We're just playing friendly badminton with expert posters around the blog-o-sphere, the way we would roundtable with Spec and G. But... is there such a thing as Greg Maddux Plus Five MPH? Think about it.
This reminds us of the original invasion of Typhoon Irabu. Remember that? This was a guy who threw 100 MPH with a Nolan Ryan Curve and a Killer Forkball. Which would have made him the greatest pitcher who ever lived.
If Hisashi Iwakuma gained 5 MPH and did everything else the same, I'd cheerfully take him over Pedro Martinez 2002. Is Tanaka that?
We're overdue for a coupla POTD's, I guess...
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In the meantime. If you liked the Cliff Lee Scenario, we're guessing that you wouldn't have too much problemo with Operation Tanaka, either. One TOR in, zero BOR's out.
Comments
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His ERA has been 1.27, 1.87, 1.27 ('Kuma's best ERA year just happened to be 1.87. His last two were 2.82 and 2.42). His WHIP has been .87, 1.03, .94. He's given up something like 7.3 hits per over that span, with .3 homers and 1.2 walks. Oh, something like 8.7 K's, too.
He's 24 years old (25 on Nov. 1st)!
Hey guys...he has completely done a Maddux-like domination on Japan ball over that time. They play pretty good ball over there,if you haven't noticed. Their guys do pretty well over here lots of times...if you haven't noticed.
'Kuma NEVER GOT CLOSE to dominating that league like Tanaka has.
24-0? If you go 24-0 in ANY league, slow pitch softball included, you probably are way better than almost all the pitchers n that league. Whitey Ford played for the Yankees when they owned the universe. He went 25-4 once...and 24-7 once...but never 24-0. When he went 25-4 is was 1961. Mantle-Maris-Elston Howard 1961.
Tanaka can pitch, I suspect. I'll giggle loudly if he becomes ours.
moe
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Per MLBTR today: "The Dodgers' pursuit of pitcher Masahiro Tanaka appears to be "the most obvious move since Brad Pitt sidled up to Angelina Jolie," writes Steve Dilbeck of the Los Angeles Times. Dilbeck cites the Dodgers' signings of Hyun-Jin Ryu, Yasiel Puig and Alexander Guerrero as evidence that the team will use its considerable financial heft to pursue the biggest-name international free agents. "We've scouted him a lot, we're very much aware of him," says GM Ned Colletti. "We saw him as recently as two days ago."
LincStrong don't have the moxy to spend the $100M+ that it will take to get Tanaka. I personally doubt that the M's will even bother to bid for him. Those 2 jokers will take their annual profit, watch the franchise value go up a little more, and re-sign Rauuuuuuul as their big move for 2014, thank you very much for nothing.
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Every franchise needs tentpole productions to captivate the general public. A tentpole production is a big summer blockbuster, usually with lots of explosions. When crafting a tentpole, every part of the production should be appropriately epic, starting with the plot.
Here we have a suitable plot for the Mariner's 2014 tentpole:
An unstoppable creature previously unknown to science arises from a trench in the eastern Pacific. The creature sets about its purpose of wreaking destruction, havoc and mayhem upon the whole earth, starting with Oakland.
Here's to dreaming of a Kaiju off season.
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It's fun to fantasize about a 3-ace rotation. But the M's have several options for the rotation which won't require a $100 mil commitment.
Would be interesting to see the front office handicap the top free agents - if Tanaka goes for $110 total, Choo $110, and Ellsbury $145, which would you choose (if you were the M's)?
A Tanaka-Taijuan Two Step would be fun; sign Tanaka, deal Taijuan for Stanton. Tanaka/Stanton is pretty strong player pair ;)
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I empathize Terry. :- ) Like you, I'll believe it when I see it.
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That said, the $180M to Fielder, and the $25M per for Hamilton, that was TOTALLY new territory for the Mariners. For a long time, the franchise-record contract was $45M or something.
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In essence, I would wind up with Giancarlo Stanton and Mike Mussina for a rookie who had started three games...
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In this article rat cheer
Awesome pic AGAIN Mojo...
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If we're going to break the bank, (and we should) I'd go for Choo, then Tanaka or Choo and Tanaka, a double event!
Ellsbury reminds of a super Michael Saunders. The problem with signing him is we already have regular Michael Saunders.
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Doc... while the Mariners front office did go after high profile free agents the past few years, the key is that the Mariners determined a fair market value for each of these high profile players and that number that was determined has NEVER been enough to sign any of these high profile players... and we all KNOW that will again happen this year until we scream loud enough.
Thus, either the Mariners process is flawed, or the Mariners plan is to appear interested enough in players to get noticed by the public - but all along just riding on the hope that MacNamara drafted studs that will hopefully show up as MLB talent this coming year.
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I have no retort on that one. I shall slink away.
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:- ) Silentpadna and I have been screaming bloody murder on that since August 1, 2001.
You keep right on quoting regulations, science officer...
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I just do not know where to yell loud where the Mariners front office will hear.... because when Jack says he has never been turned down for the money he asked for - someone needs to point out IN A VERY PUBLIC setting that not bidding for Chapman, Abreu, and Darvish is as bad a decision as it is to be real close to signing Hamilton last year or almost trading Franklin and Walker for Upton... and the Mariners evaluation system needs to adapt due to these continued failures.
Kudos to you and whomever else has been on this band wagon before Bavasi... but talk about a pattern then!!!!
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Every bit a unique combination on the mound. I see the early Lincecum except the balance and repetition seem even better to me. The arsenal is a bit different too, but I don't think I've ever seen more similar to the freak overall, very good call. Not that I'm an expert, but that's my perception.
I've been keeping an eye on the idea of another NPB RHP Kenta Maeda. Aside from handedness, balance, dominance and age they don't seem to have much in common on the mound though. I've had trouble finding video of Maeda in game so it's hard to really break him down at all. He's not as likely to be posted, according to what's being said. I think we'll get a better idea on that when a new system is agreed to though.